Storm Prediction Center

WW 415 TORNADO MN ND SD 291855Z - 300300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 415 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 155 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northwest Minnesota Central and Eastern North Dakota Northern South Dakota * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop through the afternoon, with multiple rounds in some areas later this afternoon into this evening. Large hail will be a common concern and tornado potential will exist this afternoon, and likely increase/maximize into this evening across eastern North Dakota/far northeast South Dakota into northwest Minnesota near a surface triple point and warm front. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 130 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northeast of Devils Lake ND to 70 miles east of Mobridge SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 414... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 22025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0414 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 414 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BRD TO 45 NE BRD TO 40 E INL. ..MEAD..06/29/26 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 414 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-017-031-075-115-137-292040- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN CARLTON COOK LAKE PINE ST. LOUIS WIC003-007-031-292040- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND BAYFIELD DOUGLAS LSZ121-140-141-142-143-144-145-146-147-148-150-162-292040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LSZ121 Read more

WW 414 SEVERE TSTM MN 291515Z - 292100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 414 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern and central Minnesota * Effective this Monday morning and afternoon from 1015 AM until 400 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A well-organized and fast-moving storm complex will continue generally northeastward across north-central/northern Minnesota through the afternoon, with damaging winds and large hail as the primary hazards. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles south southwest of Bemidji MN to 40 miles north northeast of Duluth MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 413... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Guyer Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA...NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...WESTERN COLORADO...AND EASTERN UTAH... ...20z Update... An Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk area was introduced across central-northern NM into south-central CO on Day 2/Tuesday. A shortwave trough will pass over the Four Corners region while sufficient gulf moisture is transported into the southern Plains. Some of this moisture is expected to advect farther west into the Rio Grande Valley and the NM/CO higher terrain, where sufficient lift and daytime instability may support the development of thunderstorms. Forecast soundings depict 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE, a dry sub-cloud layer, fast storm motions, and PWATs of 0.5-0.7" favoring less precipitation efficiency. Lightning ignitions are possible where dry fuels exist, and gusty/erratic outflow winds could further exacerbate any new/ongoing fires. The rest of the forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/29/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026/ ...Synopsis... Amid persistent longwave troughing centered over the Intermountain West, an embedded shortwave trough will pivot northeastward across portions of the Great Basin and Colorado River Valley on Tuesday. With several preceding days of dry/breezy conditions across the region, this will continue to support expansive fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin/Southwest. ...Four Corners region into eastern Utah/western Colorado... As the aforementioned shortwave rounds the base of the longer wavelength trough positioned across the West, a mid-level jet streak is forecast to overspread the Four Corners/Colorado Plateau. Latest high-res and ensemble guidance suggests that this will support a corridor of enhanced (sustained 20-25 mph with occasional gusts of 30-35 mph) south-southwesterly winds from northeastern Arizona/northwestern New Mexico into eastern Utah and western Colorado amid minimum RH values of 5-10%. With several days of dry/breezy conditions across the region, ERCs span from the 80th to 98th percentile (locally greater). This combination of dry/receptive fuels and wind/RH conditions is expected to support critical fire weather conditions across portions of the Four Corners region and Colorado Plateau. A broader area of elevated fire weather concerns is forecast across adjacent regions of the Great Basin, Southwest, and the immediate lee of the Sangre de Cristos. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms will again be possible from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest as well the Northeast on Wednesday. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main concerns. ...Synopsis... The overall synoptic pattern will not changes much from Day 2/Tuesday into Day 3/Wednesday. The upper ridge over the eastern U.S. may shift slightly east while an upper trough persists over the West. A series of midlevel shortwave impulses will migrate across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist from the Dakotas into the Great Lakes and over the Northeast. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A quasi-stationary boundary is forecast to extend from northern WI toward southeast SD Wednesday morning. This boundary may slowly lift northward during the afternoon. The evolution of this boundary will largely be influenced by morning convection that may be ongoing near/north of the boundary across parts of MN/WI at the beginning of the period. Given a very moist airmass, strong to extreme instability is forecast near and south of the boundary. Morning convection could weaken as it lifts north of the boundary, or it could intensify through the day as destabilization occurs, spreading east across the Upper Great Lakes. Another round of convection may develop during the late afternoon into the nighttime hours along the boundary as well. While convective evolution is uncertain, the thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space will support a risk for severe wind gusts and large hail. Enhanced low-level shear near the surface boundary could also result in a corridor of tornado potential. Higher severe probabilities will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details and convective evolution become more clear and forecast confidence increases. ...Northeast... Large-scale ascent will not be as strong across the region on Wednesday, though forecast guidance does show a shortwave impulse or MCV moving across the area as it crosses the international border from Canada. A very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place and strengthening mid/upper northwesterly flow will support some organized severe risk. However, storm coverage remains uncertain. Strong downburst winds and isolated large hail will be possible. The wind risk could increase if sufficient storm coverage/interaction results in clustering/bowing segments, but this scenario is uncertain given a lack of stronger low-level jet. Trends will be monitored and higher severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central High Plains... A surface trough will extend southward from western SD/NE into eastern CO/NM on Wednesday. Southerly low-level flow will maintain modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. Southerly flow through around 500 mb will be somewhat weak, though southwesterly flow increases substantially above that. This could be sufficient for weakly organized convection developing within upslope flow along the surface trough Wednesday afternoon/evening. Given weaker instability and more modest vertical shear compared to previous days, severe potential is more uncertain. However, strong outflow gusts still appear possible given a deeply mixed boundary layer and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles. ...Southeast... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop on the southern periphery of the upper anticyclone Wednesday afternoon. A very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place, but vertical shear appears a bit weaker compared to Day 2/Tuesday. Storm coverage is uncertain, but some risk for locally strong gusts may develop, especially if sufficient clustering can occur to promote forward propagation. ..Leitman.. 06/29/2026 Read more

MD 1380 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1380 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Areas affected...Central North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 291741Z - 291945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The potential for severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards is expected to increase by 19-20Z. A watch is likely. DISCUSSION...Recent trends in visible satellite and radar data indicate a gradual increase in shower and thunderstorm development across western ND into northwest SD. That activity is located to the west of a n-s-oriented stationary front/inverted trough located over central ND and within a zone of increased forcing for ascent preceding a short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet streak pivoting through eastern WY. To the east of the front, dewpoints in the 70s and a gradually warming boundary layer are contributing to a moderately unstable and increasingly uncapped air mass with MLCAPE of 1000-2000+ J/kg, per latest objective analysis. The current expectation is for surface-based storm development to occur in the vicinity of the front/trough by 19-20Z within a kinematic environment featuring low-level easterly winds veering to southerly in the mid/upper levels with 50-60 kt of effective bulk shear. As such, the potential will exist for initial supercell storm modes with an associated risk for large to very large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes. There is some signal in recent CAM guidance that initial storms could evolve into bowing segments, which would be supportive of an increased damaging wind threat. ..Mead/Guyer.. 06/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 46630121 47940135 48710100 48939969 48699864 47839809 47199851 46629898 46189942 46090048 46630121 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0414 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 414 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW BRD TO 35 NW BRD TO 30 SE BJI TO 50 SSW INL. ..MEAD..06/29/26 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 414 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-017-021-031-035-061-065-071-075-095-097-115-137-291940- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN CARLTON CASS COOK CROW WING ITASCA KANABEC KOOCHICHING LAKE MILLE LACS MORRISON PINE ST. LOUIS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN...PARTS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest, and across parts of the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Northeast... Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft on the northeastern periphery of an amplified upper ridge will overspread the region on Tuesday. This area will also be on the southerly periphery of a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet oriented across Ontario/Quebec. This will support effective shear magnitudes around 40+ kt. Supercell structures will be possible, but most guidance suggests convection will develop into one or more forward propagating clusters/bowing segments. Damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard with this activity as it moves across a very moist and moderately unstable airmass. Given supercell wind profiles and enlarged, favorably curved hodographs, a couple of tornadoes also will be possible, especially if a more semi-discrete storm mode occurs. While details in convective evolution vary some among various guidance, a consistent signal exists (particularly across northern NY into VT) and a Slight risk (Level 2 of 5) has been included. Convection should gradually decrease in intensity with southeast extent toward southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic vicinity as instability decreases and inhibition increases. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... An upper low and attendant shortwave trough initially over the Canadian Prairies and northern MN will gradually shift east/northeast through the period. Height tendencies will generally be neutral across the area given the strong upper ridge just to the east. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will persist across the region, with some intensification of a low-level jet by late afternoon/evening. At the surface, a quasi-stationary boundary is forecast to extend from near the MN Arrowhead, southward into eastern NE at midday. To the south/east of the boundary, a very moist airmass with 70s dewpoints is forecast. A corridor of strong to extreme instability is depicted by some model guidance across northern WI into the U.P. of Michigan. Convection may develop near the surface boundary and shift east across northern portions of the Great Lakes. If this occurs, damaging winds (some near 80 mph) could accompany thunderstorm clusters potentially organizing into a bowing MCS. Some guidance develops additional convection overnight across parts of southern MN/WI into northern IA and vicinity. This activity would be supported by a warm front lifting northward across the central Plains and Mid-MO Valley and an intensifying southwesterly low-level jet. While ample instability will exist across the area, it is uncertain if this activity would be surfaced-based. Nevertheless, a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment would support some severe wind/hail risk. ...Southern/Central High Plains... Modest height falls are forecast as a midlevel shortwave impulse ejected across the central Rockies into NE/SD from late afternoon into the overnight hours. A surface trough/dryline will sharpen as a result, and southerly low-level flow will transport low 60s dewpoints northward along the boundary beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. High-based convection is expected to develop by late afternoon and shift east/northeast through evening. Initial supercells could produce large to very large hail. With time, some upscale development could occur via consolidating outflows and as the low-level jet increases during the evening. This could bring an increasing risk for damaging winds, a few possibly approaching 80 mph. Given a consistent signal across various CAMs, deterministic and ML/AI guidance, a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been added. ...LA/MS/AL/GA/FL Panhandle... Forecast guidance depicts 25-35 kt midlevel northeasterly flow on the southern periphery of an upper high centered over the OH/TN Valley. A very moist airmass will be present across much of the region and strong destabilization is forecast amid strong daytime heating. Forecast soundings depict around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes, supporting some risk of organized cells/clusters. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible as activity develops west/southwest through early evening. ..Leitman.. 06/29/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN...PARTS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest, and across parts of the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Northeast... Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft on the northeastern periphery of an amplified upper ridge will overspread the region on Tuesday. This area will also be on the southerly periphery of a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet oriented across Ontario/Quebec. This will support effective shear magnitudes around 40+ kt. Supercell structures will be possible, but most guidance suggests convection will develop into one or more forward propagating clusters/bowing segments. Damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard with this activity as it moves across a very moist and moderately unstable airmass. Given supercell wind profiles and enlarged, favorably curved hodographs, a couple of tornadoes also will be possible, especially if a more semi-discrete storm mode occurs. While details in convective evolution vary some among various guidance, a consistent signal exists (particularly across northern NY into VT) and a Slight risk (Level 2 of 5) has been included. Convection should gradually decrease in intensity with southeast extent toward southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic vicinity as instability decreases and inhibition increases. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... An upper low and attendant shortwave trough initially over the Canadian Prairies and northern MN will gradually shift east/northeast through the period. Height tendencies will generally be neutral across the area given the strong upper ridge just to the east. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will persist across the region, with some intensification of a low-level jet by late afternoon/evening. At the surface, a quasi-stationary boundary is forecast to extend from near the MN Arrowhead, southward into eastern NE at midday. To the south/east of the boundary, a very moist airmass with 70s dewpoints is forecast. A corridor of strong to extreme instability is depicted by some model guidance across northern WI into the U.P. of Michigan. Convection may develop near the surface boundary and shift east across northern portions of the Great Lakes. If this occurs, damaging winds (some near 80 mph) could accompany thunderstorm clusters potentially organizing into a bowing MCS. Some guidance develops additional convection overnight across parts of southern MN/WI into northern IA and vicinity. This activity would be supported by a warm front lifting northward across the central Plains and Mid-MO Valley and an intensifying southwesterly low-level jet. While ample instability will exist across the area, it is uncertain if this activity would be surfaced-based. Nevertheless, a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment would support some severe wind/hail risk. ...Southern/Central High Plains... Modest height falls are forecast as a midlevel shortwave impulse ejected across the central Rockies into NE/SD from late afternoon into the overnight hours. A surface trough/dryline will sharpen as a result, and southerly low-level flow will transport low 60s dewpoints northward along the boundary beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. High-based convection is expected to develop by late afternoon and shift east/northeast through evening. Initial supercells could produce large to very large hail. With time, some upscale development could occur via consolidating outflows and as the low-level jet increases during the evening. This could bring an increasing risk for damaging winds, a few possibly approaching 80 mph. Given a consistent signal across various CAMs, deterministic and ML/AI guidance, a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been added. ...LA/MS/AL/GA/FL Panhandle... Forecast guidance depicts 25-35 kt midlevel northeasterly flow on the southern periphery of an upper high centered over the OH/TN Valley. A very moist airmass will be present across much of the region and strong destabilization is forecast amid strong daytime heating. Forecast soundings depict around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes, supporting some risk of organized cells/clusters. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible as activity develops west/southwest through early evening. ..Leitman.. 06/29/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...Afternoon Update... Only slight adjustments were made to the Elevated fire weather risk area to include more of the southeastern CO Plains. Localized critical fire weather conditions are expected along the central-southern CO/northern NM Mountain chain into the adjacent foothills. Strong southwesterly flow aloft is currently traversing the southern Rockies while lee surface troughing tightens east of the higher terrain, promoting gusty gap-flow and downslope winds through the afternoon. Current surface observations depict widespread RH values below 20% and some areas gusting over 40 mph (a few observed 50+ mph gusts in south-central CO), with these conditions already impacting the Aspen Acres wildfire. The smaller spatial extent of expected fire weather conditions limits the introduction of broader Critical highlights; however, very gusty winds and low RH will further exacerbate the fire environment, increasing concerns for rapid spread/fire growth on existing wildfires and new ignitions. In addition, some mid-level moisture may advect slightly more northward into Rio Grande Valley and central-northern NM higher terrain later tonight. A lightning ignition cannot be ruled out with any storms that may develop (especially where drier fuels exist), though anticipated coverage limits the introduction of dry thunderstorm highlights. In southeast WY and the NE Panhandle, sparse fuels preclude the expansion of Elevated highlights. However, dry and breezy conditions may support localized fire concerns where pockets of drier fuels exist. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/29/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026/ ...Synopsis... Longwave upper troughing will remain positioned across the Intermountain West today. While the strongest mid-level flow will transition northeastward in tandem a northeastward-ejecting mid-level shortwave, a second mid-level shortwave rotating southeastward across California and the western Great Basin will help maintain enhanced mid-level flow across much of the Great Basin and Southwest. Combined with a persistent dry air mass and lingering enhanced mid-level flow, this will continue to support expansive fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin and Southwest today. ...Southwest/Four Corners region... The aforementioned enhanced mid-level flow continuing to linger across portions of the Southwest and Four Corners region will support a corridor of sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph this afternoon. With RH values forecast in the 10-15% range and several days of antecedent dry/windy conditions exacerbating fuel dryness/receptiveness (ERCs in the 80th to 95th percentiles or greater), this will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns across much of Arizona, southeastern Utah, western/central Colorado, western/central New Mexico, and southern Wyoming. Deep boundary layer mixing will also support occasional wind gusts to 30-35 mph across much of this region. The best chance for locally critical conditions to emerge will extend from central Colorado southward into north-central New Mexico, where ERCs are noted to range from the 90th to 99th percentiles. Modestly stronger mid-level flow is forecast to linger later into the afternoon across this region, which should promote marginally stronger sustained surface winds and occasional wind gusts of 30-40 mph. An upgrade to Critical was considered for this area, but uncertainty remains regarding a longer duration and broader overlap of 20+ mph sustained winds and RH less than 15%. A targeted upgrade could be needed in the D1 update should guidance/observations indicate the development of critical wind/RH conditions across a more widespread area within this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...Afternoon Update... Only slight adjustments were made to the Elevated fire weather risk area to include more of the southeastern CO Plains. Localized critical fire weather conditions are expected along the central-southern CO/northern NM Mountain chain into the adjacent foothills. Strong southwesterly flow aloft is currently traversing the southern Rockies while lee surface troughing tightens east of the higher terrain, promoting gusty gap-flow and downslope winds through the afternoon. Current surface observations depict widespread RH values below 20% and some areas gusting over 40 mph (a few observed 50+ mph gusts in south-central CO), with these conditions already impacting the Aspen Acres wildfire. The smaller spatial extent of expected fire weather conditions limits the introduction of broader Critical highlights; however, very gusty winds and low RH will further exacerbate the fire environment, increasing concerns for rapid spread/fire growth on existing wildfires and new ignitions. In addition, some mid-level moisture may advect slightly more northward into Rio Grande Valley and central-northern NM higher terrain later tonight. A lightning ignition cannot be ruled out with any storms that may develop (especially where drier fuels exist), though anticipated coverage limits the introduction of dry thunderstorm highlights. In southeast WY and the NE Panhandle, sparse fuels preclude the expansion of Elevated highlights. However, dry and breezy conditions may support localized fire concerns where pockets of drier fuels exist. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/29/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026/ ...Synopsis... Longwave upper troughing will remain positioned across the Intermountain West today. While the strongest mid-level flow will transition northeastward in tandem a northeastward-ejecting mid-level shortwave, a second mid-level shortwave rotating southeastward across California and the western Great Basin will help maintain enhanced mid-level flow across much of the Great Basin and Southwest. Combined with a persistent dry air mass and lingering enhanced mid-level flow, this will continue to support expansive fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin and Southwest today. ...Southwest/Four Corners region... The aforementioned enhanced mid-level flow continuing to linger across portions of the Southwest and Four Corners region will support a corridor of sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph this afternoon. With RH values forecast in the 10-15% range and several days of antecedent dry/windy conditions exacerbating fuel dryness/receptiveness (ERCs in the 80th to 95th percentiles or greater), this will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns across much of Arizona, southeastern Utah, western/central Colorado, western/central New Mexico, and southern Wyoming. Deep boundary layer mixing will also support occasional wind gusts to 30-35 mph across much of this region. The best chance for locally critical conditions to emerge will extend from central Colorado southward into north-central New Mexico, where ERCs are noted to range from the 90th to 99th percentiles. Modestly stronger mid-level flow is forecast to linger later into the afternoon across this region, which should promote marginally stronger sustained surface winds and occasional wind gusts of 30-40 mph. An upgrade to Critical was considered for this area, but uncertainty remains regarding a longer duration and broader overlap of 20+ mph sustained winds and RH less than 15%. A targeted upgrade could be needed in the D1 update should guidance/observations indicate the development of critical wind/RH conditions across a more widespread area within this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across the Dakotas, Upper Midwest and Middle Missouri Valley, including damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes this afternoon through tonight. ...Dakotas/Mid-Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest... Of short-term focus/concern, is a long-lived storm cluster across north-central Minnesota that has begun to grow upscale again to the north of a warm front. Damaging winds and large hail will be prominent concerns this afternoon, and tornado potential may increase particularly with southern flank development near the warm front. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1379. Later this afternoon, a very moist airmass will become very unstable over parts of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest, including recovery in the wake of the early day storm complex across Minnesota. While lesser instability is expected north-northwestward into North Dakota, more modest buoyancy and long hodographs will support severe storms. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast by afternoon/early evening as large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper wave overspreads the region. Ample deep-layer shear coupled with the large buoyancy will favor supercells. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe wind gusts will be possible with this surface-based activity, especially as storms grow upscale this evening and progress into/across parts of Iowa/Minnesota. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible near the dryline. Moderate instability is expected within this region with generally weak deep layer shear. Strong evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be capable of severe wind gusts with the more intense cores. ...Southern Appalachians and parts of Georgia/Florida... Strong to locally severe storms capable of downbursts will be possible within a moist/unstable environment this afternoon, with some degree of storm organization possible as aided by a modestly stronger belt of northeasterly flow aloft. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 06/29/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across the Dakotas, Upper Midwest and Middle Missouri Valley, including damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes this afternoon through tonight. ...Dakotas/Mid-Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest... Of short-term focus/concern, is a long-lived storm cluster across north-central Minnesota that has begun to grow upscale again to the north of a warm front. Damaging winds and large hail will be prominent concerns this afternoon, and tornado potential may increase particularly with southern flank development near the warm front. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1379. Later this afternoon, a very moist airmass will become very unstable over parts of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest, including recovery in the wake of the early day storm complex across Minnesota. While lesser instability is expected north-northwestward into North Dakota, more modest buoyancy and long hodographs will support severe storms. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast by afternoon/early evening as large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper wave overspreads the region. Ample deep-layer shear coupled with the large buoyancy will favor supercells. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe wind gusts will be possible with this surface-based activity, especially as storms grow upscale this evening and progress into/across parts of Iowa/Minnesota. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible near the dryline. Moderate instability is expected within this region with generally weak deep layer shear. Strong evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be capable of severe wind gusts with the more intense cores. ...Southern Appalachians and parts of Georgia/Florida... Strong to locally severe storms capable of downbursts will be possible within a moist/unstable environment this afternoon, with some degree of storm organization possible as aided by a modestly stronger belt of northeasterly flow aloft. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 06/29/2026 Read more

MD 1379 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 413...414... FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1379 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Areas affected...parts of Northern and Central Minnesota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413...414... Valid 291637Z - 291830Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413, 414 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind gusts and large hail will continue with a long-lived bow echo. Tornado potential may increase this afternoon within the southern fringe of the convective system as it interacts with a warm front. DISCUSSION...A long-lived bow echo over Wadena and Todd Counties as of 1630Z has assumed more of an easterly motion over the past hour owing to storm development/propagation on the southern fringe of the convective system. That propagational component has resulted in the storm system now moving parallel to a warm front lifting north through the region. The air mass south of the warm front has become strongly unstable with the modification of the 12z MPX sounding for current surface conditions yielding MLCAPE as high as 4500-5000 J/kg. The strong buoyancy coincides with 45-55 kt of effective bulk shear, per objective analysis with that parameter space supportive of the continuation of the bow echo, assuming the convection is fully rooted within the boundary layer. Damaging winds with gusts of 60-80 mph will remain the primary hazard; however, the potential for HP supercells to evolve within the broader-scale convective complex will support a large hail threat. The tornado threat may also increase this afternoon, especially with any supercell structures that can become established within the southern flank of the MCS in the vicinity of the warm front. ..Mead.. 06/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... LAT...LON 46059549 46879560 47169533 47419353 47279203 46669182 46069199 45889428 46059549 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1378 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1378 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Areas affected...Northern Lower Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 291543Z - 291745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated occurrences of large hail are possible with the ongoing storms this morning. The limited areal coverage of the threat is expected to preclude a watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms have persisted this morning across northern Lake Michigan into northern lower MI, with some of the storms exhibiting episodic supercellular characteristics. That convective activity is likely elevated on the northeast periphery of stronger mid-level capping and largely driven by low/mid-level warm advection per KAPX VWP. Model-derived forecast soundings and the observed wind profile data suggest the environment will remain supportive of periodic storm organization through the remainder of the morning with an attendant risk for large hail. ..Mead/Guyer.. 06/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...APX... LAT...LON 45598628 45958581 45698432 44878335 44338380 44418467 44828548 45188620 45598628 MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0414 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 414 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1379 ..MEAD..06/29/26 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 414 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-017-021-035-041-057-061-065-071-095-097-115-137-153-159- 291740- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN CARLTON CASS CROW WING DOUGLAS HUBBARD ITASCA KANABEC KOOCHICHING MILLE LACS MORRISON PINE ST. LOUIS TODD WADENA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0413 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 413 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW AXN TO 40 NE FAR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1379 ..MEAD..06/29/26 ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 413 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-087-111-291740- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER MAHNOMEN OTTER TAIL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0413 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 413 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW AXN TO 40 NE FAR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1379 ..MEAD..06/29/26 ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 413 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-087-111-291740- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER MAHNOMEN OTTER TAIL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0413 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 413 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW AXN TO 40 NE FAR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1379 ..MEAD..06/29/26 ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 413 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-087-111-291740- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER MAHNOMEN OTTER TAIL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 413 SEVERE TSTM MN ND SD 291055Z - 291700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 413 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 555 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Minnesota Southeast North Dakota Central into Northeast South Dakota * Effective this Monday morning from 555 AM until NOON CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 100 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A cluster of severe thunderstorms will move from central South Dakota into northeast South Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and into parts of northwest Minnesota. Damaging winds and large hail will be likely, along with peak gusts in the 80 to 100 mph range. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles west of Chamberlain SD to 35 miles north of Detroit Lakes MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 412... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 85 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Smith Read more