Storm Prediction Center

MD 1377 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 413... FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AND WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1377 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0906 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Areas affected...Northeast South Dakota...Southeast North Dakota...and West-central Minnesota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413... Valid 291406Z - 291600Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds with gusts of 60-80 mph, large hail, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes is expected to continue with ongoing bow echo. DISCUSSION...As of 14Z, the KABR radar indicated a compact but intense bow echo over Marshall, Day, and Roberts Counties in northeast SD, moving northeast at 45 kt. A couple of tornadoes have recently been reported with meso-vortices forming near the apex of the bow. Mesoanalysis places the convective system very near a warm front lifting north through the region, where a corridor of enhanced low-level shear likely resides. Latest short-term model guidance suggests that the bow echo will continue northeast into west-central/northwest MN this morning with extrapolation of the current motion taking it to the edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #413 between 1530 and 16Z (10:30-11:00 AM CDT). Latest mesoanalysis indicates a reservoir of moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE of 2000-4000 J/kg) in the vicinity of and immediately downstream of the bow echo, which will continue to fuel vigorous up/downdrafts with an attendant threat for severe wind gusts in the 60-80 mph range and large hail up to golf-ball size. Tornado potential will be contingent on the warm front lifting north at a similar speed of the bow echo, allowing it to reside within a zone of stronger low-level shear. ..Mead.. 06/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 45479832 46339775 47069732 47339659 47169571 46809552 46199562 45499661 45179727 45119760 45109811 45479832 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0414 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0414 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0413 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 413 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW ATY TO 25 SSE ABR TO 40 NNW ABR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1377 ..MEAD..06/29/26 ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 413 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-011-027-051-087-107-111-155-167-291540- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER BIG STONE CLAY GRANT MAHNOMEN NORMAN OTTER TAIL TRAVERSE WILKIN NDC017-021-073-077-081-291540- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS DICKEY RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT SDC013-025-029-037-051-091-109-291540- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0413 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 413 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW ATY TO 25 SSE ABR TO 40 NNW ABR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1377 ..MEAD..06/29/26 ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 413 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-011-027-051-087-107-111-155-167-291540- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER BIG STONE CLAY GRANT MAHNOMEN NORMAN OTTER TAIL TRAVERSE WILKIN NDC017-021-073-077-081-291540- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS DICKEY RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT SDC013-025-029-037-051-091-109-291540- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jun 29 13:46:06 UTC 2026.

WW 0413 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 413 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE HON TO 15 NNW HON TO 40 NW HON TO 35 WSW ABR TO 55 SSW JMS. ..JEWELL..06/29/26 ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 413 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-011-027-051-087-107-111-155-167-291340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER BIG STONE CLAY GRANT MAHNOMEN NORMAN OTTER TAIL TRAVERSE WILKIN NDC017-021-073-077-081-291340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS DICKEY RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT SDC013-025-029-037-045-049-051-089-091-109-115-291340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CLARK CODINGTON Read more

MD 1376 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 413... FOR EAST-CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1376 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Areas affected...east-central into northeast South dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413... Valid 291140Z - 291345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413 continues. SUMMARY...A corridor of extreme tornado-like wind damage may persist for an hour or two into northeast South Dakota. DISCUSSION...A storm complex continues to travel quickly northeastward out of central SD. This complex has supercell characteristics, but is extremely large. Measured winds up to 131 mph have occurred, with multiple 100+ mph gusts also measured. Though presumably straight-line winds, these speeds are firmly within the EF2 range. Given the longevity of this storm complex, similar wind speeds, at least 80 to 100 mph, appear likely to approach the Aberdeen SD area later this morning. ..Jewell.. 06/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR... LAT...LON 44639974 45699878 45809828 45579793 45359796 44459905 44469935 44489959 44639974 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...110+ MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0722 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of an intense swath of severe wind gusts are likely across northeast South Dakota into northwest Minnesota through midday. Later today, severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns, though a couple of tornadoes may also occur. ...Dakotas/Mid-Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the central Rockies. This upper disturbance will acquire a negative tilt and move into the central Dakotas by early evening. A surface low over the north-central Plains will develop northward into eastern ND by 00z as a warm front advances northward across much of MN. Through midday, an intense supercell over northeast SD will continue to move quickly northeastward through parts of the eastern Dakotas this morning and into northwest MN. Recent CAM model guidance (i.e., time-lagged HRRR) has been remarkably consistent in showing the evolution of the SD thunderstorm complex into northern MN today. Have upgraded to an Enhanced Risk downstream of this extremely intense supercell evolving into a bow within a focused mesoscale corridor. Please refer to MCD #1376 for short-term forecast details. Later this afternoon, a very moist airmass will become very unstable over parts of the Upper Midwest. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast by late afternoon as large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper wave overspreads the region. Ample deep-layer shear coupled with the large buoyancy will favor supercells. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts will be possible with this surface-based activity. Towards the early evening, additional storms are likely to develop farther east over MN with a hail/wind threat likely persisting through the evening. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible near the dryline. Moderate instability is expected within this region with generally weak deep layer shear. Strong evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be capable of severe gusts with the more intense cores. ..Smith/Jewell.. 06/29/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0722 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of an intense swath of severe wind gusts are likely across northeast South Dakota into northwest Minnesota through midday. Later today, severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns, though a couple of tornadoes may also occur. ...Dakotas/Mid-Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the central Rockies. This upper disturbance will acquire a negative tilt and move into the central Dakotas by early evening. A surface low over the north-central Plains will develop northward into eastern ND by 00z as a warm front advances northward across much of MN. Through midday, an intense supercell over northeast SD will continue to move quickly northeastward through parts of the eastern Dakotas this morning and into northwest MN. Recent CAM model guidance (i.e., time-lagged HRRR) has been remarkably consistent in showing the evolution of the SD thunderstorm complex into northern MN today. Have upgraded to an Enhanced Risk downstream of this extremely intense supercell evolving into a bow within a focused mesoscale corridor. Please refer to MCD #1376 for short-term forecast details. Later this afternoon, a very moist airmass will become very unstable over parts of the Upper Midwest. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast by late afternoon as large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper wave overspreads the region. Ample deep-layer shear coupled with the large buoyancy will favor supercells. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts will be possible with this surface-based activity. Towards the early evening, additional storms are likely to develop farther east over MN with a hail/wind threat likely persisting through the evening. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible near the dryline. Moderate instability is expected within this region with generally weak deep layer shear. Strong evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be capable of severe gusts with the more intense cores. ..Smith/Jewell.. 06/29/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0722 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of an intense swath of severe wind gusts are likely across northeast South Dakota into northwest Minnesota through midday. Later today, severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns, though a couple of tornadoes may also occur. ...Dakotas/Mid-Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the central Rockies. This upper disturbance will acquire a negative tilt and move into the central Dakotas by early evening. A surface low over the north-central Plains will develop northward into eastern ND by 00z as a warm front advances northward across much of MN. Through midday, an intense supercell over northeast SD will continue to move quickly northeastward through parts of the eastern Dakotas this morning and into northwest MN. Recent CAM model guidance (i.e., time-lagged HRRR) has been remarkably consistent in showing the evolution of the SD thunderstorm complex into northern MN today. Have upgraded to an Enhanced Risk downstream of this extremely intense supercell evolving into a bow within a focused mesoscale corridor. Please refer to MCD #1376 for short-term forecast details. Later this afternoon, a very moist airmass will become very unstable over parts of the Upper Midwest. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast by late afternoon as large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper wave overspreads the region. Ample deep-layer shear coupled with the large buoyancy will favor supercells. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts will be possible with this surface-based activity. Towards the early evening, additional storms are likely to develop farther east over MN with a hail/wind threat likely persisting through the evening. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible near the dryline. Moderate instability is expected within this region with generally weak deep layer shear. Strong evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be capable of severe gusts with the more intense cores. ..Smith/Jewell.. 06/29/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0722 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of an intense swath of severe wind gusts are likely across northeast South Dakota into northwest Minnesota through midday. Later today, severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns, though a couple of tornadoes may also occur. ...Dakotas/Mid-Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the central Rockies. This upper disturbance will acquire a negative tilt and move into the central Dakotas by early evening. A surface low over the north-central Plains will develop northward into eastern ND by 00z as a warm front advances northward across much of MN. Through midday, an intense supercell over northeast SD will continue to move quickly northeastward through parts of the eastern Dakotas this morning and into northwest MN. Recent CAM model guidance (i.e., time-lagged HRRR) has been remarkably consistent in showing the evolution of the SD thunderstorm complex into northern MN today. Have upgraded to an Enhanced Risk downstream of this extremely intense supercell evolving into a bow within a focused mesoscale corridor. Please refer to MCD #1376 for short-term forecast details. Later this afternoon, a very moist airmass will become very unstable over parts of the Upper Midwest. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast by late afternoon as large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper wave overspreads the region. Ample deep-layer shear coupled with the large buoyancy will favor supercells. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts will be possible with this surface-based activity. Towards the early evening, additional storms are likely to develop farther east over MN with a hail/wind threat likely persisting through the evening. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible near the dryline. Moderate instability is expected within this region with generally weak deep layer shear. Strong evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be capable of severe gusts with the more intense cores. ..Smith/Jewell.. 06/29/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0722 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of an intense swath of severe wind gusts are likely across northeast South Dakota into northwest Minnesota through midday. Later today, severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns, though a couple of tornadoes may also occur. ...Dakotas/Mid-Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the central Rockies. This upper disturbance will acquire a negative tilt and move into the central Dakotas by early evening. A surface low over the north-central Plains will develop northward into eastern ND by 00z as a warm front advances northward across much of MN. Through midday, an intense supercell over northeast SD will continue to move quickly northeastward through parts of the eastern Dakotas this morning and into northwest MN. Recent CAM model guidance (i.e., time-lagged HRRR) has been remarkably consistent in showing the evolution of the SD thunderstorm complex into northern MN today. Have upgraded to an Enhanced Risk downstream of this extremely intense supercell evolving into a bow within a focused mesoscale corridor. Please refer to MCD #1376 for short-term forecast details. Later this afternoon, a very moist airmass will become very unstable over parts of the Upper Midwest. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast by late afternoon as large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper wave overspreads the region. Ample deep-layer shear coupled with the large buoyancy will favor supercells. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts will be possible with this surface-based activity. Towards the early evening, additional storms are likely to develop farther east over MN with a hail/wind threat likely persisting through the evening. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible near the dryline. Moderate instability is expected within this region with generally weak deep layer shear. Strong evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be capable of severe gusts with the more intense cores. ..Smith/Jewell.. 06/29/2026 Read more

WW 0413 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 413 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE HON TO 30 N 9V9 TO 40 ENE PIR TO 30 ESE MBG. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1376 ..JEWELL..06/29/26 ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 413 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-011-027-051-087-107-111-155-167-291340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER BIG STONE CLAY GRANT MAHNOMEN NORMAN OTTER TAIL TRAVERSE WILKIN NDC017-021-073-077-081-291340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS DICKEY RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT SDC005-013-025-029-037-045-049-051-059-069-089-091-109-115- 291340- SD Read more

WW 0413 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0413 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0412 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 412 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S 9V9 TO 45 W 9V9 TO 5 WSW PIR TO 35 S MBG. ..JEWELL..06/29/26 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 412 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC017-059-065-069-085-117-119-291140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUFFALO HAND HUGHES HYDE LYMAN STANLEY SULLY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0412 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 412 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S 9V9 TO 45 W 9V9 TO 5 WSW PIR TO 35 S MBG. ..JEWELL..06/29/26 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 412 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC017-059-065-069-085-117-119-291140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUFFALO HAND HUGHES HYDE LYMAN STANLEY SULLY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0412 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 412 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S 9V9 TO 45 W 9V9 TO 5 WSW PIR TO 35 S MBG. ..JEWELL..06/29/26 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 412 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC017-059-065-069-085-117-119-291140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUFFALO HAND HUGHES HYDE LYMAN STANLEY SULLY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0412 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 412 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S 9V9 TO 45 W 9V9 TO 5 WSW PIR TO 35 S MBG. ..JEWELL..06/29/26 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 412 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC017-059-065-069-085-117-119-291140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUFFALO HAND HUGHES HYDE LYMAN STANLEY SULLY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1375 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1375 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Areas affected...from central South Dakota into southeast North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 290946Z - 291145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds over 80 mph and wind-driven hail will spread northeastward out of central South Dakota into part of northeast South Dakota and southeast North Dakota. DISCUSSION...A severe cluster of storms over south-central SD has produced several gusts over 80 mph along with hail over 2.00" diameter. This system is expected to remain severe as it moves northeastward this morning. The anchor supercell on the southern end was previously moving almost due east, but recent radar trends suggest the system is finally moving more northeastward, similar to CAM guidance. The moist and unstable air mass, lift within the theta-e advection zone, and 50-60 kt deep-layer shear suggest the complex will remain severe for several more hours. ..Jewell.. 06/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 43310069 43740059 44300075 46489882 46669790 46669721 46329687 45669687 44919712 44019835 43609911 43370003 43310069 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... The broad trough in the West and ridge in the East will persist through the remainder of the week. A moist airmass across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies will support repeated days of convective activity. Large-scale forcing will remain weak, but shortwave troughs emanating from the western trough will promote development within the Plains and the Upper Midwest where a stalled surface boundary will be positioned. Both Thursday and Friday show potential for MCS development from Nebraska into the Dakotas. Friday will likely have a more prominent shortwave trough as a lifting mechanism. Where this potential severe weather will be focused is not certain given the expected convection that will occur each day prior. For Saturday, some models show the shortwave trough moving into the Upper Midwest where another round of convection may occur. Severe probabilities are certainly possible in the coming days as confidence continues to increase. Another area to watch this week will be the Northeast. Here, stronger northwesterly flow at mid levels will continue into part of the weekend. Depending on how the shortwave trough evolves in the Upper Midwest, this feature may eventually move into the Northeast and promote thunderstorm development late this weekend into next week. Predictability remains too low for highlights, however. Read more