Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail, severe/damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes should occur this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains into Iowa. ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper troughing will gradually amplify over the western CONUS today, while modestly enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level flow persists over the southern/central Plains. A separate mid/upper-level trough with strong westerly mid-level jet will move eastward across the Great Lakes and Ontario/Quebec through the day, while remaining generally displaced to the north of the surface warm sector. At the surface, a weak low over the southern High Plains this morning should reform over the central High Plains of eastern CO by late afternoon, as large-scale ascent preceding the western CONUS upper trough gradually overspreads this region. Greater low-level moisture will remain confined along/south of a convectively reinforced front from NE/IA into the southern Great Lakes region. A dryline will extend southward from this boundary across the southern/central High Plains. ...Central High Plains to Iowa... High-based thunderstorms that initially develop across the higher terrain of central CO this afternoon will eventually encounter a more unstable airmass in eastern CO/western KS, as low-level moisture gradually increases in the bent back region to the north/northwest of the surface low. An increase in convective coverage and intensity is anticipated as this activity spreads eastward across the central High Plains late this afternoon and evening, aided by at least moderate instability and deep-layer shear. While some supercell potential will exist, along with a threat for large to isolated very large hail, most guidance continues to suggest that an intense bowing cluster will develop and spread eastward along/near the surface boundary across southern NE/northern KS through the evening. A greater threat for severe winds, some of which could be significant (75+ mph), remains apparent, as steep low/mid-level lapse rates aid in efficient downward momentum transfer within the convective cluster. A modest expansion has been made to the Enhanced Risk to account for the potential of a slightly larger cluster. A separate area of robust convective development should also occur farther east this afternoon/evening across parts of IA and vicinity along/near the surface front. This activity will likely be aided by strengthening low-level warm advection this evening, and it may persist through much of the night. The presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, increasing low-level moisture, and daytime heating all suggest that moderate to locally strong instability will likely be in place by late afternoon along/south of the front. While westerly mid-level flow should only be modestly enhanced, sufficient deep-layer shear is forecast to support supercells initially. Large to very large hail (isolated 2+ inches) appears possible within the first couple hours of initiation, before thunderstorm mergers/interactions occur and the overall mode becomes messy. Some increase in the severe/damaging wind threat may develop if a more organized cluster can emerge and spread east-southeastward through the evening and early overnight hours. A few tornadoes also appear possible through the evening with any sustained supercells. This potential should remain focused along/near the front where backed low-level easterly winds may locally enhance 0-1 km SRH. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated thunderstorms may initiate this afternoon along the surface dryline from southwest KS into the eastern OK/TX Panhandles and western OK. While deep-layer shear will be weaker with southward extent across the southern High Plains, a narrow zone of minimal MLCIN along/east of the dryline may support isolated convection capable of producing both locally severe hail and wind gusts. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from central MO into the Midwest/OH Valley. This convection is likely being aided by warm/moist advection associated with a west-southwesterly low-level jet. While instability remains fairly limited at the moment, some potential for occasional gusty winds and marginally severe hail should continue through the late morning with this activity. Greater destabilization is forecast along/south of this ongoing convection across the lower OH Valley this afternoon. One or more convectively enhanced MCVs may aid robust thunderstorm development across parts of western/central KY, with a threat for scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail. A brief tornado or two also appears possible. A Slight Risk has been introduced across this area where a more focused risk for damaging winds has become apparent in short-term guidance. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 05/16/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail, severe/damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes should occur this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains into Iowa. ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper troughing will gradually amplify over the western CONUS today, while modestly enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level flow persists over the southern/central Plains. A separate mid/upper-level trough with strong westerly mid-level jet will move eastward across the Great Lakes and Ontario/Quebec through the day, while remaining generally displaced to the north of the surface warm sector. At the surface, a weak low over the southern High Plains this morning should reform over the central High Plains of eastern CO by late afternoon, as large-scale ascent preceding the western CONUS upper trough gradually overspreads this region. Greater low-level moisture will remain confined along/south of a convectively reinforced front from NE/IA into the southern Great Lakes region. A dryline will extend southward from this boundary across the southern/central High Plains. ...Central High Plains to Iowa... High-based thunderstorms that initially develop across the higher terrain of central CO this afternoon will eventually encounter a more unstable airmass in eastern CO/western KS, as low-level moisture gradually increases in the bent back region to the north/northwest of the surface low. An increase in convective coverage and intensity is anticipated as this activity spreads eastward across the central High Plains late this afternoon and evening, aided by at least moderate instability and deep-layer shear. While some supercell potential will exist, along with a threat for large to isolated very large hail, most guidance continues to suggest that an intense bowing cluster will develop and spread eastward along/near the surface boundary across southern NE/northern KS through the evening. A greater threat for severe winds, some of which could be significant (75+ mph), remains apparent, as steep low/mid-level lapse rates aid in efficient downward momentum transfer within the convective cluster. A modest expansion has been made to the Enhanced Risk to account for the potential of a slightly larger cluster. A separate area of robust convective development should also occur farther east this afternoon/evening across parts of IA and vicinity along/near the surface front. This activity will likely be aided by strengthening low-level warm advection this evening, and it may persist through much of the night. The presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, increasing low-level moisture, and daytime heating all suggest that moderate to locally strong instability will likely be in place by late afternoon along/south of the front. While westerly mid-level flow should only be modestly enhanced, sufficient deep-layer shear is forecast to support supercells initially. Large to very large hail (isolated 2+ inches) appears possible within the first couple hours of initiation, before thunderstorm mergers/interactions occur and the overall mode becomes messy. Some increase in the severe/damaging wind threat may develop if a more organized cluster can emerge and spread east-southeastward through the evening and early overnight hours. A few tornadoes also appear possible through the evening with any sustained supercells. This potential should remain focused along/near the front where backed low-level easterly winds may locally enhance 0-1 km SRH. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated thunderstorms may initiate this afternoon along the surface dryline from southwest KS into the eastern OK/TX Panhandles and western OK. While deep-layer shear will be weaker with southward extent across the southern High Plains, a narrow zone of minimal MLCIN along/east of the dryline may support isolated convection capable of producing both locally severe hail and wind gusts. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from central MO into the Midwest/OH Valley. This convection is likely being aided by warm/moist advection associated with a west-southwesterly low-level jet. While instability remains fairly limited at the moment, some potential for occasional gusty winds and marginally severe hail should continue through the late morning with this activity. Greater destabilization is forecast along/south of this ongoing convection across the lower OH Valley this afternoon. One or more convectively enhanced MCVs may aid robust thunderstorm development across parts of western/central KY, with a threat for scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail. A brief tornado or two also appears possible. A Slight Risk has been introduced across this area where a more focused risk for damaging winds has become apparent in short-term guidance. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 05/16/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Tuesday... Severe potential is expected to continue D4/Tuesday as the cold front extends from the upper Midwest to southern Plains. Moderate to strong instability ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms with potential for damaging wind and large hail from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes Region. Probabilities were shifted eastward and northward with this update in alignment with continued trends for the timing/placement of the cold front. ... D5/Wednesday - D8/Saturday... On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. This leads to low confidence in any organized severe threat. D6/Thursday through D8/Saturday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Areas of thunderstorms may continue from the far southern Plains into the Southeast, but confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Tuesday... Severe potential is expected to continue D4/Tuesday as the cold front extends from the upper Midwest to southern Plains. Moderate to strong instability ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms with potential for damaging wind and large hail from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes Region. Probabilities were shifted eastward and northward with this update in alignment with continued trends for the timing/placement of the cold front. ... D5/Wednesday - D8/Saturday... On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. This leads to low confidence in any organized severe threat. D6/Thursday through D8/Saturday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Areas of thunderstorms may continue from the far southern Plains into the Southeast, but confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Numerous strong thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of all hazards (including very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes) will be possible across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska. ...Synopsis... On Monday, the western trough will take on a negative tilt before ejecting across the central Plains, with strong southwesterly flow aloft overspreading the region. As a result, a strong surface low will development across western Kansas. A surface cold front will extend northward to a secondary surface low across the upper Midwest. A dryline will extend southward across portions of western Kansas into western Oklahoma. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front and further south along the dryline Monday afternoon and evening from Nebraska into central Kansas. ...Central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska... A volatile environment is expected to be in place ahead of the dryline across central Kansas Monday afternoon, with moderate to strong instability, strong deep layer shear, and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This will favor supercells as the primary mode with developing thunderstorms along the dryline in the afternoon, with potential for large to very large hail (some 2-4 inch). Through the afternoon and evening, a 40-50 kt southerly low level jet will shift into central Kansas with large clockwise enhancement of low-level hodographs. Should the mode be able to remain discrete supercells, strong to intense tornadoes will be possible across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska. This in combination with potential for very large hail may warrant higher probabilities as mesoscale details become clearer. As the front shifts southward through time, upscale growth will be favored with increasing probabilities for damaging winds. ...Iowa into Wisconsin and the Great Lakes Region... Widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected further north along the front into Iowa/Wisconsin and north into the Great Lakes Region. Early day convection may be ongoing at the start of the period within these regions, which may limit how much destabilization can occur before the afternoon. Nonetheless, guidance suggests potential for damaging wind and perhaps a few instances of severe hail with storms along the front Monday afternoon and evening. ...Western Oklahoma into northern Texas... Forcing for ascent will be weaker across the dryline into western Oklahoma and northern Texas. Guidance does suggest that a few isolated supercells could develop near the dryline, with potential for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado. Given the strong flow aloft and better large scale ascent will reside further north in Kansas, mode may quickly become messy with uncertainty in overall coverage at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/16/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...WESTERN PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... **Dangerous wildfire spread conditions are expected across the southern High Plains tomorrow (Sunday)** ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... An active fire weather pattern will become established across the southwestern U.S. tomorrow (Sunday) as a pronounced mid-level impulse, embedded in a broader upper trough over the Intermountain West, traverses the Rockies and supports further deepening of a surface low over the Plains. Strong gradient flow across the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains will support widespread 25-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds, amid 5-15 percent RH, warranting the introduction of broad Critical highlights. Extremely Critical conditions are expected across extreme eastern New Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, extreme southeast Colorado, and far southwest Kansas. Here, the aforementioned favorable wind/RH will overspread critically dry fuel beds with fuel loading, where several wildfires have developed over the past few days. Widespread sustained surface winds exceeding traditional Extremely Critical criteria (30+ mph) are somewhat in question. However, compensating factors for a volatile and dangerous wildfire-spread scenario include the combination of fuel loading of grasses exceeding the 95 percentile, as well as the exacerbation of holdovers from wildfires ignited over the last few days. The eastward expansion of Extremely Critical highlights may be needed across the remainder of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, as well as southwestern Kansas, when the exact position of the dryline may be pinpointed with relatively higher confidence. ...California Central Valley Region... A northwesterly mid-level speed max will overspread California tomorrow, atop a dry and mixed boundary layer. By afternoon peak heating, 20-25 mph sustained north-northwesterly surface will overlap with 15-20 percent RH, amid drying fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 05/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify over the Rockies, with surface low deepening anticipated across the Plains states today. Gradient flow to the west of the dryline will promote dry and windy conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains. Guidance consensus depicts widespread 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds overlapping with 15-20 percent RH for much of the afternoon from the lower Great Basin into western Texas, warranting Elevated highlights given dry fuels. Critical highlights remain in place across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, where the aforementioned meteorological conditions will overspread receptive fuel beds experiencing fuel loading. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights are also in place to address initial lightning strikes and erratic thunderstorm wind gusts with storm development over dry fuel beds. ..Squitieri.. 05/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night from portions of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Supercells with very large hail and tornadoes are possible, before upscale storm growth leads to an increase in the wind damage threat. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough currently across the Pacific Northwest will deepen D2/Sunday, moving across Great Basin into the Four Corners into early D3/Monday. Elevated convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of northern Nebraska into Iowa. Westerly flow will overspread the central/northern Plains as a lead shortwave moves across western Kansas into Nebraska through the day before shifting into the Upper Midwest. A surface cyclone will deepen across eastern Colorado/western Kansas with strong moist southerly flow and mid 60s dew points extending across much of the central and southern Plains. Thunderstorm development is expected by the afternoon from a stationary boundary/warm front across central Nebraska southward to the dryline across central Kansas and perhaps as far south as the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. ...NE to MN... Strong daytime heating and destabilization should occur behind morning convection across Nebraska into Iowa through broken cloud cover. Better clearing will be possible across southeastern/south-central Nebraska where fewer clouds will be present. Overall, a broad corridor of MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and strong deep layer shear should extend across southern Nebraska into western Iowa just south of the warm front. Strengthening southerly 700-850 mb flow is expected through the afternoon, with a low-level jet around 40-50 kts across central Kansas into eastern Nebraska. By the afternoon, guidance suggests that supercells may develop near the stationary front/warm front in eastern Nebraska. Given the environment, these will be capable of large to very large hail (some 2-3 inches), damaging wind, and a few tornadoes (some strong). Through time, convection will likely cluster and grow upscale with a damaging wind threat continuing downstream into southeast SD, northwest IA and southwest MN through Sunday night. ...Western KS to TX Panhandles... Forcing for ascent will be weaker with southern extent into western Kansas/western Oklahoma near the dryline. Soundings across these regions also indicate capping at the base of the EML, which may be difficult to overcome. Nonetheless, a few isolated supercells may develop along the dryline as the low-level jet increases through the evening. These will pose a risk for large to very large hail and damaging winds. ..Thornton.. 05/16/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of large hail, wind damage and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. Scattered thunderstorms will also pose potential for strong to severe winds across the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will develop over the western states today, with increasing southwest winds aloft late in the day and overnight across the Rockies and into the High Plains. Preceding the western trough, a progressive shortwave will move from the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, allowing temporary height rises across the upper Midwest/MS Valley. Behind this wave, high pressure will bring stable conditions into the northern Plains. At the surface, low pressure will develop over the central High Plains, with a trough extending from eastern WY into western TX. Meanwhile, a stalled front will be situated across northeast CO into northern KS and toward IA/northern IL, with easterly winds across NE and IA. A moist air mass will reside south of this boundary, with 60s F dewpoints prevalent. Backed winds will help bring this moisture westward toward northeast CO and western NE by late afternoon as 850 mb winds increase toward evening. Shear profiles will thus become increasingly favorable from late afternoon through evening for supercells, with large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a couple tornadoes from CO into western NE/KS. East of there, another concentration of strong to severe storms is expected from eastern NE into IA, northern MO and northeast KS near the boundary. Elsewhere, a broad fetch of 20-30 kt southerly 850 mb winds will maintain a moist air mass across the lower to middle MS Valley and across the OH Valley. Here, pockets of stronger instability will support scattered strong storms during the afternoon. ...Central Plains... Storms are likely to form near the Front Range after 21Z, with activity developing eastward into NE and KS. A few supercells appear likely with time, producing damaging hail and severe wind gusts. Westerly winds aloft atop the deep low-level easterlies will elongate hodographs with over 50 kt effective shear, while SRH values favor supercells and severe bows through evening. Farther east, strong instability will develop near the east-west boundary, with scattered severe storms developing around 21Z. Some of these storms may produce hail over 2.00" diameter as lapse rates aloft will remain steep, and with ample moisture. Additional isolated activity is possible along the dryline from southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. Here, shear will be weak but a narrow zone of uncapped air mass with a backing dryline may support isolated storms with locally severe hail or wind gusts. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 05/16/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be likely Sunday from portions of the central and southern High Plains into the Upper Midwest. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible before upscale growth and an emerging damaging wind risk continues into the evening. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will begin to eject across the Intermountain West on D3/Sunday with a more subtle shortwave trough moving across the central Plains. As a result, deepening low pressure will develop across eastern Colorado/western Kansas with strengthening southerly flow and warm moist advection south of a warm front lifting northward into the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Early in the period, elevated storms will likely be ongoing across portions of Iowa into southern Minnesota. Scattered severe storms capable of all hazards will be expected to develop near the warm front/low across eastern Colorado into Nebraska and across southern South Dakota continuing into portions of the upper-Midwest along the cold front through the evening. A more isolated and conditional threat for severe storms will extend southward along the dryline from western Kansas into western Oklahoma. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Early day elevated convection is expected to move across portions of Iowa into the upper-Midwest. This will pose some risk for severe hail through the morning. Across the central Plains, strong daytime heating is expected to yield moderate to strong instability across much of the central Plains. This in combination with strong deep layer shear suggests a rather volatile environment, particularly across central Nebraska into southern South Dakota/northwestern Iowa. Guidance suggests that thunderstorms will develop across eastern Colorado into Nebraska by the afternoon. Initial thunderstorm development will likely be supercellular and capable of all hazards including large to very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. As the front sags southward through the evening, eventual upscale growth into a squall line is expected by the evening. A strong 50 kt low-level jet will ramp up into the evening, which may support a continuing potential for tornadoes, some of which may be strong. ...Western Kansas into western Oklahoma... A more conditional threat may extend southward along the dryline into western Kansas and western Oklahoma. Guidance suggests some signal for isolated supercells to develop along and east of the dryline Sunday afternoon. The environment here will conditionally favor large to very large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado or two with the strengthening low-level jet in the evening. ..Thornton.. 05/15/2026 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri May 15 07:33:02 UTC 2026.

No watches are valid as of Fri May 15 07:33:01 UTC 2026.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Rockies, resulting in a deepening surface low across the central Plains. Similar to Day 1, another round of dry downslope flow is expected behind a sharpening dryline across the southern High Plains. The latest guidance consensus depicts widespread 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH across much of the lower Colorado River Basin into the southern High Plains, hence the introduction of broad Elevated highlights. Critical highlights have been introduced across southeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle, where guidance consensus shows the aforementioned meteorological surface conditions overspreading loaded fuels that are most receptive to wildfire spread. Initial discrete thunderstorm development across the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles may initially be high based as storms develop over a mixed boundary layer immediately along the dryline. Given dry fuel beds, lightning-induced fire ignitions are possible where storms first develop, warranting the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 05/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal mid-level flow, with multiple embedded impulses, will prevail over the western and northern CONUS as a low-amplitude mid-level trough progresses over the southern Plains today. A surface low will develop over the central Plains and encourage low-level moisture return east of the I-35 corridor. Meanwhile, dry downslope flow will usher in behind the surface low and overspread the southern High Plains. Cold temperatures aloft will overspread this dry airmass, encouraging high-based dry thunderstorm development atop receptive fuels, supporting lightning-induced ignitions over the southern High Plains. Lastly, dry westerly gradient-induced surface winds are expected across the northern Plains, driven by a deepening surface low over western Manitoba. Overall, an active day with relatively widespread wildfire spread conditions are expected over portions of the Plains states today. ...Southern High Plains... To the west of a diffuse dryline, a deep and dry boundary layer will manifest by afternoon peak heating as downslope flow also intensifies through the day. Widespread 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected during the afternoon, overlapping 10-15 percent RH from southern New Mexico to the Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma border, warranting Elevated highlights given receptive fuels. Critical highlights are also in place from southeast New Mexico into the Texas Rolling Plains, where guidance consensus shows 25+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds overlapping RH below 15 percent on a widespread basis for several hours during the afternoon. Across the southern High Plains, the approach of a low-amplitude mid-level impulse will result in seasonably cold mid-level temperatures overspreading a boundary layer extending up to 500 mb, yielding classic inverted-v soundings beneath thin CAPE (up to 500 J/kg in some forecast soundings). At least isolated thunderstorm development is expected along the New Mexico/Texas Panhandle border initially by mid afternoon. Strong flow aloft will encourage rapid eastward advancement of these storms, accompanied by erratic wind gusts. Isolated lightning-induced ignitions are possible with the onset of storm development. However, a greater concern exists for lightning-induced ignitions as storms progress farther to the east into the Oklahoma Panhandle toward the Texas Rolling Plains. Here, low-level moisture (while overall scant for typical deep-moist convection) will gradually deepen, supporting increased thunderstorm coverage and intensification. As these storms intensify and produce erratic to perhaps severe (58+ mph) wind gusts, they will also overspread drier fuels that have experienced greater than average fuel loading. This volatile scenario may support several lightning induced ignitions, followed by potential rapid spread from both the larger scale gradient winds/gusts, as well as from erratic gusts by strong to severe thunderstorms, perhaps accompanied by scant precipitation, warranting the introduction of Scattered dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Portions of the Northern Plains... By afternoon peak heating, the combination of boundary layer mixing and gradient flow will promote widespread sustained westerly winds in the 15-25 mph range across portions of the northern Plains. RH will drop below 20 percent in some spots, warranting broad Elevated highlights. Critical highlights are in place where guidance consensus shows the best overlap of 15-20 percent RH and 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds during the afternoon, as well as where fuels are most receptive to wildfire spread. ...Wyoming and immediate surrounding areas... Dry downslope flow across portions of the northern Rockies will support surface winds reaching the 15-20 mph range during the afternoon, where RH should dip to 15 percent over most locales. Elevated highlights have been introduced given the presence of dry fuels. At least some wildfire spread potential exists wherever the aforementioned meteorological surface conditions can overlap receptive fuel beds. ..Squitieri.. 05/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. Scattered thunderstorms will also pose potential for strong to severe winds across the lower to mid- Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A trough is expected to begin to deepen across the western US as strengthening mid-level flow moves southward from the northern Pacific Friday and Saturday. Downstream across the central US, upper-level westerly flow will strengthen across the central/northern Rockies with strengthening lee troughing across the Plains. Persistent southerly flow through the southern and central Plains should establish a broad warm sector across the Plains, bounded to the west by a dryline and to the north by a diffuse warm frontal zone. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected across portions of the central high Plains near a developing surface low and along the warm front, with additional thunderstorms possible along the dryline from eastern Kansas to western Oklahoma. Scattered thunderstorms will also be likely across portions of the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...Central Plains... As a short-wave trough moves across the central Plains late Saturday afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the deepening surface low and the warm front by the afternoon across eastern CO, northwest KS, and western NE. A broad warm sector will be in place across much of the central Plains, with low to mid 60s dew points reaching as far north as southern Nebraska. MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg will be common by the afternoon. Initially, strong deep layer shear and largely linear hodographs will support potential for supercells capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado. As the low-level jet strengthens into the evening, low-level shear will increase but storm mode will also likely shift to become more linear, with broken clusters/bowing segments likely. A few of the mid-range hi-res CAMs depict a stronger bowing segment moving across southern Nebraska into the evening in concert with the increasing of the low-level jet. This may present a more focused corridor of significant wind potential. Confidence at this time in the exact location of this remains low. Higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if trends align. ...Western Oklahoma/northwest Texas... Much of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas near the dryline will remain capped at the base of the EML. Strong daytime heating and favorable residence time within the dryline circulation may promote an isolated supercell or two with potential for large to very large hail and damaging winds by the late afternoon. Signal for development is most favorable near the Red River in southern Oklahoma where CAM guidance suggests potential and HREF calibrated thunder probabilities are highest. ...Midwest/OH Valleys... A leading mid-level shortwave trough with an enhanced belt of 50 kts winds aloft will promote widely scattered thunderstorm development into the mid- to upper Missouri Valley Saturday afternoon. MUCAPE values on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg should support deep convection, and effective bulk shear values near 30 knots within the warm frontal zone may allow for organized convection with an attendant threat for damaging wind. ..Thornton.. 05/15/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and large hail are likely from Iowa into northeast Kansas. Isolated hail or damaging wind gusts are possible over a large area from western Texas into Wisconsin and western Illinois. ...Synopsis... Moderate westerly winds aloft will exist across the northern tier of states today, with several waves from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes. The feature of interest will move across the Dakotas and toward the upper MS Valley late in the day, aiding storm development and severity from NE into WI. To the south, a weak shortwave trough will move out of NM and into TX, with mid and high level flow enhancement along with modest cooling aloft. At the surface, low pressure will develop from southwest KS into the TX Panhandle, with a front extending into NE, southern MN, and into northern WI. Increasing southerly winds during the afternoon and evening will bring 60s F dewpoints northward toward these boundaries, with scattered severe storms likely late in the day and centered near Iowa. Farther south, very steep lapse rates and a subtle upper trough should again result in widely scattered high-based storms producing severe gusts over the southern High Plains. ...IA into eastern NE and northeast KS... Southerly winds and daytime heating will support moderate instability this afternoon near a surface trough which will extend from eastern NE into southern MN and northern WI. Dewpoints are expected to reach into the lower 60s F, and perhaps approach 65 F during the early evening. Meanwhile, midlevel temperatures will be cool, resulting in steep lapse rates and robust CAPE profiles. Storms are most likely to initiate during the late afternoon near the IA/SD border, and extending northeastward into WI and perhaps the central MI Upper Peninsula. Large hail will be possible with the initial cells, supported by 60 kt deep-layer shear. Hail to 2.00" diameter will be possible even into WI. Farther south into IA, the deeper theta-e plume and increasing low-level jet will enhance the severe wind risk, with an MCS expected to develop and move east/southeast across the region. Damaging winds with a few gusts over 70 mph are expected. Additional clusters of severe storms are expected from southeast NE into northeast KS as well, firmly within the low-level theta-e plume with maximally deepened moist layer to 700 mb. Shear will not be as strong, but the initial development is expected to be robust with large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Southwest KS into western Texas... Strong heating will yield very deep mixed layers near and south of the Panhandles surface low, while midlevel temperatures remain cool enough to support instability despite very low dewpoints. Meanwhile, the aforementioned shortwave trough will enhance lift late in the day. The result will be scattered high-based thunderstorms, with severe wind gusts expected. Isolated gusts over 70 mph may occur. Cells that develop into southwest TX may contain marginal hail as well, with elongated hodographs in the mid to upper levels. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 05/15/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible Friday afternoon and evening in parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A predominantly zonal flow regime aloft will persist over the central U.S. through Friday. An embedded weak upper-level disturbance (currently over the Southwest) will migrate eastward across the central Plains through tomorrow, reaching the mid-MS River Valley by late evening. This flow regime will promote modest deepening of a surface low over western OK/KS through the day with continued northward advection of a seasonally moist air mass to the east of a dryline and ahead of an inverted surface trough across the Plains/upper Midwest. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along these boundaries by late afternoon, likely lasting into the overnight hours for portions of the Lower Missouri River Valley/Midwest. ...Lower Missouri River Valley... Thunderstorm initiation is anticipated by late afternoon across central NE along the inverted surface trough where warm conditions on the fringe of returning moisture should yield weakly capped thermodynamic profiles. Stronger mid-level flow across the central Plains will favor higher probabilities for organized convection, including the potential for supercells. However, weak low-level storm-relative winds within a deeply mixed air mass may promote outflow-dominant convection and the potential for relatively quick upscale growth. While discrete modes can be maintained, steep mid-level lapse rates and strong zonal speed shear will promote the potential for large/very large hail. Regardless, over the past 12-24 hours both deterministic and ensemble guidance have trended towards a more north/northwesterly placement of the inverted trough as well as the zone of convective initiation and downstream storm propagation. Based on these trends, 15% hail and wind probabilities have been shifted northward. Additionally, 5% hail/wind probabilities were expanded eastward into portions of the Midwest where strong deep-layer wind shear and elevated buoyancy may maintain convective intensity through the overnight hours. ...Southern Plains... Persistent west/southwesterly mid-level flow will favor steep (8-9 C/km) lapse rate advection eastward over the southern Plains through the next 48 hours. Despite dry conditions to the west of the dryline, strong diurnal heating coupled with steep lapse rates should yield deeply-mixed, and nearly uninhibited, profiles by late afternoon. Although buoyancy values will be modest, high-based convection over a very deeply mixed boundary layer may support strong to severe downburst winds. Recent HREF/REFS solutions hint that severe winds associated with high-based convection may develop as far west as west as the OK/TX Panhandles, though considerable spread is noted among deterministic solutions. However, a westward expansion of the 5% wind/Marginal contour was made to account for this potential. To the east of the dryline, strong capping at the base of the EML will likely limit storm coverage. However, a few recent CAM solutions hint that ascent along the dryline may be sufficient for isolated convection by late afternoon/early evening. 30 knot mid-level flow over the warm sector will support organization of any deep convection that can become sustained, including the potential for a supercell or two capable of large hail. ..Moore.. 05/14/2026 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu May 14 17:23:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu May 14 17:23:02 UTC 2026.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes were made to the drawn Elevated and Isolated Dry Thunder areas. As was previously mentioned, vegetation green up across portions of the northern Plains is subduing otherwise critical fire weather conditions, especially in Montana where sustained winds are likely to exceed 30 mph once again today. Similarly, across portions of the southern Plains, the greenness gradient (generally south and east of the TX Panhandle) dominates the eastern extent of the Elevated area. The latest forecast guidance maintains limited precipitable water content amid a dry sub-cloud environment over much of the TX and OK Panhandles. Thus, the threat of dry thunderstorms remains in place this afternoon with potential continuing at least a couple of hours after sunset over the eastern TX Panhandle. ..Stearns.. 05/14/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1209 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough and associated stronger mid-level westerly flow will push into the northern Plains while upper ridging slides over the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a dry cold front extending south of a central Canadian surface low will permit a breezy post frontal environment, bringing widespread fire weather concerns to the northern/central Plains. Farther south, tightening surface pressure gradients east of the CO/NM higher terrain will promote enhanced downslope flow and deep layer mixing. Increasing mid-level moisture and subtle forcing associating with an approaching short wave impulse could aid in high-based thunderstorm development across portions of the OK/TX Panhandles. ...Northern Plains... Strong post frontal westerly winds of 15-25 mph and RH of 20-30% amid dry fuels will support an Elevated fire weather threat across the Dakotas. Farther west, more pronounced deep-layer westerly flow will yield sustained west winds of 30-45 mph across central and eastern MT during peak afternoon heating. Limited RH reductions, light precipitation over the last 24 hours, and green up across southern MT should mitigate an otherwise critical fire weather environment. Ahead of an eastward progressing cold front, strong southerly winds of 20-25 mph (gusts up to 40 mph) will persist through the afternoon hours across northwestern IA into western MN. Despite modest RH values of 25-35%, a mixed fuelscape of partial green up and sporadic dry fuels combined with very strong winds could support fire spread. Thus, Elevated highlights have been expanded to encompass this threat. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Westerly downslope flow of 15-20 mph amid RH of 15-20% will support Elevated fire weather concerns from far southeastern AZ into much of southeastern NM and the southern Plains where delayed green up has allowed fuels to remain receptive. Ascent associated with the arrival of the mid-level perturbation alongside afternoon heating and resultant instability should support showers and isolated thunderstorms across the OK/TX Panhandles and adjacent CO/KS areas this afternoon. Forecast soundings depict PWATs of 0.6-0.8" with a prominent dry sub-cloud layer up to 3 km. This should limit appreciable precipitation at the surface, allowing the threat of dry thunderstorms to evolve. Gusty outflow winds and some lightning ignitions are possible in existing dry fuels where an IsoDryT risk has been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more