Storm Prediction Center

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... The broad trough in the West and ridge in the East will persist through the remainder of the week. A moist airmass across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies will support repeated days of convective activity. Large-scale forcing will remain weak, but shortwave troughs emanating from the western trough will promote development within the Plains and the Upper Midwest where a stalled surface boundary will be positioned. Both Thursday and Friday show potential for MCS development from Nebraska into the Dakotas. Friday will likely have a more prominent shortwave trough as a lifting mechanism. Where this potential severe weather will be focused is not certain given the expected convection that will occur each day prior. For Saturday, some models show the shortwave trough moving into the Upper Midwest where another round of convection may occur. Severe probabilities are certainly possible in the coming days as confidence continues to increase. Another area to watch this week will be the Northeast. Here, stronger northwesterly flow at mid levels will continue into part of the weekend. Depending on how the shortwave trough evolves in the Upper Midwest, this feature may eventually move into the Northeast and promote thunderstorm development late this weekend into next week. Predictability remains too low for highlights, however. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... The broad trough in the West and ridge in the East will persist through the remainder of the week. A moist airmass across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies will support repeated days of convective activity. Large-scale forcing will remain weak, but shortwave troughs emanating from the western trough will promote development within the Plains and the Upper Midwest where a stalled surface boundary will be positioned. Both Thursday and Friday show potential for MCS development from Nebraska into the Dakotas. Friday will likely have a more prominent shortwave trough as a lifting mechanism. Where this potential severe weather will be focused is not certain given the expected convection that will occur each day prior. For Saturday, some models show the shortwave trough moving into the Upper Midwest where another round of convection may occur. Severe probabilities are certainly possible in the coming days as confidence continues to increase. Another area to watch this week will be the Northeast. Here, stronger northwesterly flow at mid levels will continue into part of the weekend. Depending on how the shortwave trough evolves in the Upper Midwest, this feature may eventually move into the Northeast and promote thunderstorm development late this weekend into next week. Predictability remains too low for highlights, however. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... The broad trough in the West and ridge in the East will persist through the remainder of the week. A moist airmass across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies will support repeated days of convective activity. Large-scale forcing will remain weak, but shortwave troughs emanating from the western trough will promote development within the Plains and the Upper Midwest where a stalled surface boundary will be positioned. Both Thursday and Friday show potential for MCS development from Nebraska into the Dakotas. Friday will likely have a more prominent shortwave trough as a lifting mechanism. Where this potential severe weather will be focused is not certain given the expected convection that will occur each day prior. For Saturday, some models show the shortwave trough moving into the Upper Midwest where another round of convection may occur. Severe probabilities are certainly possible in the coming days as confidence continues to increase. Another area to watch this week will be the Northeast. Here, stronger northwesterly flow at mid levels will continue into part of the weekend. Depending on how the shortwave trough evolves in the Upper Midwest, this feature may eventually move into the Northeast and promote thunderstorm development late this weekend into next week. Predictability remains too low for highlights, however. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... The broad trough in the West and ridge in the East will persist through the remainder of the week. A moist airmass across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies will support repeated days of convective activity. Large-scale forcing will remain weak, but shortwave troughs emanating from the western trough will promote development within the Plains and the Upper Midwest where a stalled surface boundary will be positioned. Both Thursday and Friday show potential for MCS development from Nebraska into the Dakotas. Friday will likely have a more prominent shortwave trough as a lifting mechanism. Where this potential severe weather will be focused is not certain given the expected convection that will occur each day prior. For Saturday, some models show the shortwave trough moving into the Upper Midwest where another round of convection may occur. Severe probabilities are certainly possible in the coming days as confidence continues to increase. Another area to watch this week will be the Northeast. Here, stronger northwesterly flow at mid levels will continue into part of the weekend. Depending on how the shortwave trough evolves in the Upper Midwest, this feature may eventually move into the Northeast and promote thunderstorm development late this weekend into next week. Predictability remains too low for highlights, however. Read more

MD 1374 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 412... FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1374 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Areas affected...much of central South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 412... Valid 290802Z - 291000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 412 continues. SUMMARY...Storms over south-central South Dakota are expected to become an intense complex over the next couple hours, producing winds of 75-90 mph and large hail across central parts of the state. DISCUSSION...Earlier supercells have merged near the cold front and surface low over southwest SD, with recent radar trends indicating the early stages of upscale growth into a compact but significantly severe MCS. Aside from the supercell over Bennett County SD, radar also shows a warm advection wing developing east/northeast of it, with additional development south of this cell along the cold front. This evolution is taking place near a substantial 850 mb theta-e gradient, with MUCAPE up to 4000 J/kg along and south of the surge. Given recent trends, strong instability and steep lapse rates aloft, and a favorable low-level jet, confidence is increasing that this complex will strengthen, and possible accelerate northeastward through the morning hours. Additional watches may be required downstream into more of northern/northeast SD and southeast ND as the scenario evolves. ..Jewell.. 06/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 42900231 43320213 43610187 44000134 44560086 45220005 45179925 44989881 44579880 43819925 43180022 42920144 42760224 42900231 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1373 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1373 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Areas affected...northeast Minnesota into northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 290630Z - 290900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Storms may increase in coverage tonight, and isolated instances of marginal hail cannot be ruled out. DISCUSSION...A warm front extends across central MN and WI, with 70s F dewpoints to the south. Meanwhile, VWPs show 925-850 mb winds out of the south to southwest near 30 kt. Although temperatures aloft are warming ahead of the upper trough, the high precipitable water air mass is still yielding MUCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg near and south of the warm front. The 04Z GRB sounding is on the dry side of the instability gradient, just east of the elevated high theta-e air mass, but indicates veering winds with height and overall high precipitable water content. Persistent southwest winds just off the surface should continue bring strong elevated instability across the region tonight, and, aid lift. Some of the stronger storm cores may be capable of marginally severe hail, as effective deep-layer shear averages near 50 kt and aids cellular storm mode. ..Jewell/Smith.. 06/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 46579342 46769280 46839211 46829076 46158880 45618810 44918802 44618844 45208988 45489125 45589245 45629372 45919401 46269394 46579342 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms will again be possible from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest as well the Northeast on Wednesday. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main concerns. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the CONUS will not significantly change from Tuesday into Wednesday. A broad trough in the West will maintain modest to moderate mid-level flow across the Plains into the Upper Midwest. Some stronger mid-level flow is possible in the Upper Great Lakes vicinity due to the main synoptic trough displaced to the north in Canada. Moderate northwesterly winds aloft will persist in the Northeast as well. Strong to extreme buoyancy will develop during the afternoon from the Upper Midwest into the Northeast with a very moist airmass beneath the upper ridge. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... A stalled surface boundary will may eventually make modest northward progress as a weak surface trough develops in the central/northern Plains. Models suggest convection will be ongoing early in the morning in the Nebraska/South Dakota vicinity. Given the strong low-level jet expected, it is not clear if this convection will weaken during the morning or continue eastward into an increasingly unstable airmass. Depending on how that early activity evolves, there is potential for another round of convection to develop along the boundary in the Upper Mississippi Valley. This may be aided by a subtle shortwave trough moving northeast. In either case, MCS development is possible with time. Damaging winds and isolated large hail are possible, though there may end up being a corridor of greater wind damage potential should an MCS develop. Greater severe probabilities may be needed as confidence increases. ...Northeast... Forcing for ascent will be more nebulous on Wednesday. Even so, the very unstable environment will promote a risk of strong/damaging downburst winds as well as isolated large hail. Given the uncertainty in storm coverage, only low severe probabilities have been added. ..Wendt.. 06/29/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms will again be possible from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest as well the Northeast on Wednesday. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main concerns. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the CONUS will not significantly change from Tuesday into Wednesday. A broad trough in the West will maintain modest to moderate mid-level flow across the Plains into the Upper Midwest. Some stronger mid-level flow is possible in the Upper Great Lakes vicinity due to the main synoptic trough displaced to the north in Canada. Moderate northwesterly winds aloft will persist in the Northeast as well. Strong to extreme buoyancy will develop during the afternoon from the Upper Midwest into the Northeast with a very moist airmass beneath the upper ridge. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... A stalled surface boundary will may eventually make modest northward progress as a weak surface trough develops in the central/northern Plains. Models suggest convection will be ongoing early in the morning in the Nebraska/South Dakota vicinity. Given the strong low-level jet expected, it is not clear if this convection will weaken during the morning or continue eastward into an increasingly unstable airmass. Depending on how that early activity evolves, there is potential for another round of convection to develop along the boundary in the Upper Mississippi Valley. This may be aided by a subtle shortwave trough moving northeast. In either case, MCS development is possible with time. Damaging winds and isolated large hail are possible, though there may end up being a corridor of greater wind damage potential should an MCS develop. Greater severe probabilities may be needed as confidence increases. ...Northeast... Forcing for ascent will be more nebulous on Wednesday. Even so, the very unstable environment will promote a risk of strong/damaging downburst winds as well as isolated large hail. Given the uncertainty in storm coverage, only low severe probabilities have been added. ..Wendt.. 06/29/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms will again be possible from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest as well the Northeast on Wednesday. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main concerns. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the CONUS will not significantly change from Tuesday into Wednesday. A broad trough in the West will maintain modest to moderate mid-level flow across the Plains into the Upper Midwest. Some stronger mid-level flow is possible in the Upper Great Lakes vicinity due to the main synoptic trough displaced to the north in Canada. Moderate northwesterly winds aloft will persist in the Northeast as well. Strong to extreme buoyancy will develop during the afternoon from the Upper Midwest into the Northeast with a very moist airmass beneath the upper ridge. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... A stalled surface boundary will may eventually make modest northward progress as a weak surface trough develops in the central/northern Plains. Models suggest convection will be ongoing early in the morning in the Nebraska/South Dakota vicinity. Given the strong low-level jet expected, it is not clear if this convection will weaken during the morning or continue eastward into an increasingly unstable airmass. Depending on how that early activity evolves, there is potential for another round of convection to develop along the boundary in the Upper Mississippi Valley. This may be aided by a subtle shortwave trough moving northeast. In either case, MCS development is possible with time. Damaging winds and isolated large hail are possible, though there may end up being a corridor of greater wind damage potential should an MCS develop. Greater severe probabilities may be needed as confidence increases. ...Northeast... Forcing for ascent will be more nebulous on Wednesday. Even so, the very unstable environment will promote a risk of strong/damaging downburst winds as well as isolated large hail. Given the uncertainty in storm coverage, only low severe probabilities have been added. ..Wendt.. 06/29/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms will again be possible from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest as well the Northeast on Wednesday. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main concerns. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the CONUS will not significantly change from Tuesday into Wednesday. A broad trough in the West will maintain modest to moderate mid-level flow across the Plains into the Upper Midwest. Some stronger mid-level flow is possible in the Upper Great Lakes vicinity due to the main synoptic trough displaced to the north in Canada. Moderate northwesterly winds aloft will persist in the Northeast as well. Strong to extreme buoyancy will develop during the afternoon from the Upper Midwest into the Northeast with a very moist airmass beneath the upper ridge. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... A stalled surface boundary will may eventually make modest northward progress as a weak surface trough develops in the central/northern Plains. Models suggest convection will be ongoing early in the morning in the Nebraska/South Dakota vicinity. Given the strong low-level jet expected, it is not clear if this convection will weaken during the morning or continue eastward into an increasingly unstable airmass. Depending on how that early activity evolves, there is potential for another round of convection to develop along the boundary in the Upper Mississippi Valley. This may be aided by a subtle shortwave trough moving northeast. In either case, MCS development is possible with time. Damaging winds and isolated large hail are possible, though there may end up being a corridor of greater wind damage potential should an MCS develop. Greater severe probabilities may be needed as confidence increases. ...Northeast... Forcing for ascent will be more nebulous on Wednesday. Even so, the very unstable environment will promote a risk of strong/damaging downburst winds as well as isolated large hail. Given the uncertainty in storm coverage, only low severe probabilities have been added. ..Wendt.. 06/29/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms will again be possible from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest as well the Northeast on Wednesday. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main concerns. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the CONUS will not significantly change from Tuesday into Wednesday. A broad trough in the West will maintain modest to moderate mid-level flow across the Plains into the Upper Midwest. Some stronger mid-level flow is possible in the Upper Great Lakes vicinity due to the main synoptic trough displaced to the north in Canada. Moderate northwesterly winds aloft will persist in the Northeast as well. Strong to extreme buoyancy will develop during the afternoon from the Upper Midwest into the Northeast with a very moist airmass beneath the upper ridge. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... A stalled surface boundary will may eventually make modest northward progress as a weak surface trough develops in the central/northern Plains. Models suggest convection will be ongoing early in the morning in the Nebraska/South Dakota vicinity. Given the strong low-level jet expected, it is not clear if this convection will weaken during the morning or continue eastward into an increasingly unstable airmass. Depending on how that early activity evolves, there is potential for another round of convection to develop along the boundary in the Upper Mississippi Valley. This may be aided by a subtle shortwave trough moving northeast. In either case, MCS development is possible with time. Damaging winds and isolated large hail are possible, though there may end up being a corridor of greater wind damage potential should an MCS develop. Greater severe probabilities may be needed as confidence increases. ...Northeast... Forcing for ascent will be more nebulous on Wednesday. Even so, the very unstable environment will promote a risk of strong/damaging downburst winds as well as isolated large hail. Given the uncertainty in storm coverage, only low severe probabilities have been added. ..Wendt.. 06/29/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA...NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...WESTERN COLORADO...AND EASTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... Amid persistent longwave troughing centered over the Intermountain West, an embedded shortwave trough will pivot northeastward across portions of the Great Basin and Colorado River Valley on Tuesday. With several preceding days of dry/breezy conditions across the region, this will continue to support expansive fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin/Southwest. ...Four Corners region into eastern Utah/western Colorado... As the aforementioned shortwave rounds the base of the longer wavelength trough positioned across the West, a mid-level jet streak is forecast to overspread the Four Corners/Colorado Plateau. Latest high-res and ensemble guidance suggests that this will support a corridor of enhanced (sustained 20-25 mph with occasional gusts of 30-35 mph) south-southwesterly winds from northeastern Arizona/northwestern New Mexico into eastern Utah and western Colorado amid minimum RH values of 5-10%. With several days of dry/breezy conditions across the region, ERCs span from the 80th to 98th percentile (locally greater). This combination of dry/receptive fuels and wind/RH conditions is expected to support critical fire weather conditions across portions of the Four Corners region and Colorado Plateau. A broader area of elevated fire weather concerns is forecast across adjacent regions of the Great Basin, Southwest, and the immediate lee of the Sangre de Cristos. ..Chalmers.. 06/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA...NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...WESTERN COLORADO...AND EASTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... Amid persistent longwave troughing centered over the Intermountain West, an embedded shortwave trough will pivot northeastward across portions of the Great Basin and Colorado River Valley on Tuesday. With several preceding days of dry/breezy conditions across the region, this will continue to support expansive fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin/Southwest. ...Four Corners region into eastern Utah/western Colorado... As the aforementioned shortwave rounds the base of the longer wavelength trough positioned across the West, a mid-level jet streak is forecast to overspread the Four Corners/Colorado Plateau. Latest high-res and ensemble guidance suggests that this will support a corridor of enhanced (sustained 20-25 mph with occasional gusts of 30-35 mph) south-southwesterly winds from northeastern Arizona/northwestern New Mexico into eastern Utah and western Colorado amid minimum RH values of 5-10%. With several days of dry/breezy conditions across the region, ERCs span from the 80th to 98th percentile (locally greater). This combination of dry/receptive fuels and wind/RH conditions is expected to support critical fire weather conditions across portions of the Four Corners region and Colorado Plateau. A broader area of elevated fire weather concerns is forecast across adjacent regions of the Great Basin, Southwest, and the immediate lee of the Sangre de Cristos. ..Chalmers.. 06/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA...NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...WESTERN COLORADO...AND EASTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... Amid persistent longwave troughing centered over the Intermountain West, an embedded shortwave trough will pivot northeastward across portions of the Great Basin and Colorado River Valley on Tuesday. With several preceding days of dry/breezy conditions across the region, this will continue to support expansive fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin/Southwest. ...Four Corners region into eastern Utah/western Colorado... As the aforementioned shortwave rounds the base of the longer wavelength trough positioned across the West, a mid-level jet streak is forecast to overspread the Four Corners/Colorado Plateau. Latest high-res and ensemble guidance suggests that this will support a corridor of enhanced (sustained 20-25 mph with occasional gusts of 30-35 mph) south-southwesterly winds from northeastern Arizona/northwestern New Mexico into eastern Utah and western Colorado amid minimum RH values of 5-10%. With several days of dry/breezy conditions across the region, ERCs span from the 80th to 98th percentile (locally greater). This combination of dry/receptive fuels and wind/RH conditions is expected to support critical fire weather conditions across portions of the Four Corners region and Colorado Plateau. A broader area of elevated fire weather concerns is forecast across adjacent regions of the Great Basin, Southwest, and the immediate lee of the Sangre de Cristos. ..Chalmers.. 06/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA...NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...WESTERN COLORADO...AND EASTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... Amid persistent longwave troughing centered over the Intermountain West, an embedded shortwave trough will pivot northeastward across portions of the Great Basin and Colorado River Valley on Tuesday. With several preceding days of dry/breezy conditions across the region, this will continue to support expansive fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin/Southwest. ...Four Corners region into eastern Utah/western Colorado... As the aforementioned shortwave rounds the base of the longer wavelength trough positioned across the West, a mid-level jet streak is forecast to overspread the Four Corners/Colorado Plateau. Latest high-res and ensemble guidance suggests that this will support a corridor of enhanced (sustained 20-25 mph with occasional gusts of 30-35 mph) south-southwesterly winds from northeastern Arizona/northwestern New Mexico into eastern Utah and western Colorado amid minimum RH values of 5-10%. With several days of dry/breezy conditions across the region, ERCs span from the 80th to 98th percentile (locally greater). This combination of dry/receptive fuels and wind/RH conditions is expected to support critical fire weather conditions across portions of the Four Corners region and Colorado Plateau. A broader area of elevated fire weather concerns is forecast across adjacent regions of the Great Basin, Southwest, and the immediate lee of the Sangre de Cristos. ..Chalmers.. 06/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA...NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...WESTERN COLORADO...AND EASTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... Amid persistent longwave troughing centered over the Intermountain West, an embedded shortwave trough will pivot northeastward across portions of the Great Basin and Colorado River Valley on Tuesday. With several preceding days of dry/breezy conditions across the region, this will continue to support expansive fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin/Southwest. ...Four Corners region into eastern Utah/western Colorado... As the aforementioned shortwave rounds the base of the longer wavelength trough positioned across the West, a mid-level jet streak is forecast to overspread the Four Corners/Colorado Plateau. Latest high-res and ensemble guidance suggests that this will support a corridor of enhanced (sustained 20-25 mph with occasional gusts of 30-35 mph) south-southwesterly winds from northeastern Arizona/northwestern New Mexico into eastern Utah and western Colorado amid minimum RH values of 5-10%. With several days of dry/breezy conditions across the region, ERCs span from the 80th to 98th percentile (locally greater). This combination of dry/receptive fuels and wind/RH conditions is expected to support critical fire weather conditions across portions of the Four Corners region and Colorado Plateau. A broader area of elevated fire weather concerns is forecast across adjacent regions of the Great Basin, Southwest, and the immediate lee of the Sangre de Cristos. ..Chalmers.. 06/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Longwave upper troughing will remain positioned across the Intermountain West today. While the strongest mid-level flow will transition northeastward in tandem a northeastward-ejecting mid-level shortwave, a second mid-level shortwave rotating southeastward across California and the western Great Basin will help maintain enhanced mid-level flow across much of the Great Basin and Southwest. Combined with a persistent dry air mass and lingering enhanced mid-level flow, this will continue to support expansive fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin and Southwest today. ...Southwest/Four Corners region... The aforementioned enhanced mid-level flow continuing to linger across portions of the Southwest and Four Corners region will support a corridor of sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph this afternoon. With RH values forecast in the 10-15% range and several days of antecedent dry/windy conditions exacerbating fuel dryness/receptiveness (ERCs in the 80th to 95th percentiles or greater), this will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns across much of Arizona, southeastern Utah, western/central Colorado, western/central New Mexico, and southern Wyoming. Deep boundary layer mixing will also support occasional wind gusts to 30-35 mph across much of this region. The best chance for locally critical conditions to emerge will extend from central Colorado southward into north-central New Mexico, where ERCs are noted to range from the 90th to 99th percentiles. Modestly stronger mid-level flow is forecast to linger later into the afternoon across this region, which should promote marginally stronger sustained surface winds and occasional wind gusts of 30-40 mph. An upgrade to Critical was considered for this area, but uncertainty remains regarding a longer duration and broader overlap of 20+ mph sustained winds and RH less than 15%. A targeted upgrade could be needed in the D1 update should guidance/observations indicate the development of critical wind/RH conditions across a more widespread area within this region. ..Chalmers.. 06/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Longwave upper troughing will remain positioned across the Intermountain West today. While the strongest mid-level flow will transition northeastward in tandem a northeastward-ejecting mid-level shortwave, a second mid-level shortwave rotating southeastward across California and the western Great Basin will help maintain enhanced mid-level flow across much of the Great Basin and Southwest. Combined with a persistent dry air mass and lingering enhanced mid-level flow, this will continue to support expansive fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin and Southwest today. ...Southwest/Four Corners region... The aforementioned enhanced mid-level flow continuing to linger across portions of the Southwest and Four Corners region will support a corridor of sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph this afternoon. With RH values forecast in the 10-15% range and several days of antecedent dry/windy conditions exacerbating fuel dryness/receptiveness (ERCs in the 80th to 95th percentiles or greater), this will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns across much of Arizona, southeastern Utah, western/central Colorado, western/central New Mexico, and southern Wyoming. Deep boundary layer mixing will also support occasional wind gusts to 30-35 mph across much of this region. The best chance for locally critical conditions to emerge will extend from central Colorado southward into north-central New Mexico, where ERCs are noted to range from the 90th to 99th percentiles. Modestly stronger mid-level flow is forecast to linger later into the afternoon across this region, which should promote marginally stronger sustained surface winds and occasional wind gusts of 30-40 mph. An upgrade to Critical was considered for this area, but uncertainty remains regarding a longer duration and broader overlap of 20+ mph sustained winds and RH less than 15%. A targeted upgrade could be needed in the D1 update should guidance/observations indicate the development of critical wind/RH conditions across a more widespread area within this region. ..Chalmers.. 06/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Longwave upper troughing will remain positioned across the Intermountain West today. While the strongest mid-level flow will transition northeastward in tandem a northeastward-ejecting mid-level shortwave, a second mid-level shortwave rotating southeastward across California and the western Great Basin will help maintain enhanced mid-level flow across much of the Great Basin and Southwest. Combined with a persistent dry air mass and lingering enhanced mid-level flow, this will continue to support expansive fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin and Southwest today. ...Southwest/Four Corners region... The aforementioned enhanced mid-level flow continuing to linger across portions of the Southwest and Four Corners region will support a corridor of sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph this afternoon. With RH values forecast in the 10-15% range and several days of antecedent dry/windy conditions exacerbating fuel dryness/receptiveness (ERCs in the 80th to 95th percentiles or greater), this will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns across much of Arizona, southeastern Utah, western/central Colorado, western/central New Mexico, and southern Wyoming. Deep boundary layer mixing will also support occasional wind gusts to 30-35 mph across much of this region. The best chance for locally critical conditions to emerge will extend from central Colorado southward into north-central New Mexico, where ERCs are noted to range from the 90th to 99th percentiles. Modestly stronger mid-level flow is forecast to linger later into the afternoon across this region, which should promote marginally stronger sustained surface winds and occasional wind gusts of 30-40 mph. An upgrade to Critical was considered for this area, but uncertainty remains regarding a longer duration and broader overlap of 20+ mph sustained winds and RH less than 15%. A targeted upgrade could be needed in the D1 update should guidance/observations indicate the development of critical wind/RH conditions across a more widespread area within this region. ..Chalmers.. 06/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Longwave upper troughing will remain positioned across the Intermountain West today. While the strongest mid-level flow will transition northeastward in tandem a northeastward-ejecting mid-level shortwave, a second mid-level shortwave rotating southeastward across California and the western Great Basin will help maintain enhanced mid-level flow across much of the Great Basin and Southwest. Combined with a persistent dry air mass and lingering enhanced mid-level flow, this will continue to support expansive fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin and Southwest today. ...Southwest/Four Corners region... The aforementioned enhanced mid-level flow continuing to linger across portions of the Southwest and Four Corners region will support a corridor of sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph this afternoon. With RH values forecast in the 10-15% range and several days of antecedent dry/windy conditions exacerbating fuel dryness/receptiveness (ERCs in the 80th to 95th percentiles or greater), this will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns across much of Arizona, southeastern Utah, western/central Colorado, western/central New Mexico, and southern Wyoming. Deep boundary layer mixing will also support occasional wind gusts to 30-35 mph across much of this region. The best chance for locally critical conditions to emerge will extend from central Colorado southward into north-central New Mexico, where ERCs are noted to range from the 90th to 99th percentiles. Modestly stronger mid-level flow is forecast to linger later into the afternoon across this region, which should promote marginally stronger sustained surface winds and occasional wind gusts of 30-40 mph. An upgrade to Critical was considered for this area, but uncertainty remains regarding a longer duration and broader overlap of 20+ mph sustained winds and RH less than 15%. A targeted upgrade could be needed in the D1 update should guidance/observations indicate the development of critical wind/RH conditions across a more widespread area within this region. ..Chalmers.. 06/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more