Storm Prediction Center

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL HIGH AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail, severe/damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes remain likely this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains into Iowa. ...20z Update OH valley/Midwest... Ahead of several MCVs and outflow from prior convection, ample heating is supporting destabilization amid mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely across over southern IL/IN into northern KY through this evening. Moderate buoyancy and ~30 kt of deep-layer shear will promote a mix of organized multicell structures capable of damaging gusts and some hail. A tornado or two also remains possible with any stronger linear clusters or transient supercells able to become established. See MCD#735 for short term information. ...Central High Plains to the Mid MO Valley... Several foci for strong to severe convection remain apparent this afternoon along a broad frontal zone from the Rockies/High Plains to the Mid MO Valley. Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening near the intersection of the surface trough and stalled front across the mid MO Valley. Moderate to strong destabilization and 40+ kt of westerly deep-layer shear will support supercell structures with large hail and damaging winds over te mid MO Valley. A locally greater tornado risk may develop with any sustained supercells across parts of eastern NE and southern IA into northern MO where baked low-level flow near a modifying outflow boundary intersects with the stalled front. Initial convective development within the broad upslope regime across the higher terrain of the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains should continue to intensify as it moves eastward this afternoon/evening encountering progressively stronger buoyancy and shear. This will support supercells with large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two from northeastern CO and southwest NE into northwest KS. Upscale growth into one or more clusters with a continued severe threat is expected tonight along and north of the stationary front across the central Plains. See MCD#736 for more information. ...Southern Plains... A conditional risk for strong thunderstorms remains apparent along the dryline late this afternoon/evening across portions of the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. Displaced from the stronger deep-layer shear, and likely high based owing the strong low-level mixing, predominately multi cell storms are possible amid steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Confidence in convective initiation remains low but a risk for damaging gusts and hail remains possible. ..Lyons.. 05/16/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026/ ...Central High Plains into Mid MO Valley... Recent surface analysis placed a low over southwest KS, with a warm front extending through a low over far southeast NE to a third low over southern WI. The low over southwest KS is forecast to fill while another low develops back farther west across southeast CO today. As it does, low-level moisture advection will persist across the central Plains, while a deeper upper trough traverses the Intermountain West. Combination of low-level convergence east and north of the surface low and increasing large-scale ascent will favor thunderstorm development during the late afternoon/early evening across northeast CO. This initial activity is expected to be supercellular, with large to very large hail as the primary risk. This initial activity should be high-based, with strong downdrafts resulting in a quick transition to a linear mode. Even so, some tornado risk is still apparent, particularly with the southernmost supercells that persist through the early evening when a strengthening low-level jet will lengthen low-level hodographs considerably. Most guidance continues to suggest that an intense bowing cluster, with significant wind gusts over 75 mph possible, will develop and spread eastward along/near the warm front from along the southern NE/northern KS border vicinity through the evening. Given the organized nature of this line, it should persist throughout most of the night, and an eastward expansion has been made to the Enhanced Risk to account for increased probability of strong gusts into more of southeast NE. A separate area of intense thunderstorms is anticipated farther east this afternoon/evening along/near the warm front. Given the ongoing thunderstorms across northern MO, there is some question to where the front consolidates this afternoon. Consensus within the guidance places it from far southeast NE across southern IA, but there is some chance it ends up a bit farther south in far northern MO. Robust thunderstorm development is expected along this boundary this afternoon amid strong low-level moisture advection and heating, and persistent low-level convergence. Environmental conditions support supercells capable of all severe hazards, including large to very large hail (isolated 2"+ inches in diameter) and tornadoes, but a messy convective mode and related storm interference could disrupt updrafts and may limit discreteness. Tornado risk will be focused along/near the front where backed low-level easterly winds may locally enhance 0-1 km SRH. Some clustering is possible, with an attendant threat for more damaging gusts wherever this clustering occurs. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley... With the primary shortwave trough well west of the region, mesoscale features will dominate the severe potential across the region today. One such feature is the MCV currently moving through southeast MO. This feature is expected to result in a localized increase in mid-level flow along its eastern periphery as it progresses eastward/northeastward along the OH River vicinity. Filtered heating and/or outflow from the ongoing showers and thunderstorms could result in a baroclinic zone ahead of this vorticity maximum from north-central KY into far southern IN. Expectation is that ascent attendant to the MCS coupled with low-level convergence along this boundary will result in additional thunderstorm development this afternoon. The locally enhanced mid-level flow coupled with modest low-level southerly flow should result in moderate vertical shear, with effective bulk shear values from 30 to 40 kt. This is sufficient for updraft organization, but the mixed boundary layer will likely support strong downdrafts. The general expectation is for an early mostly multicell/isolated supercell mode to transition quickly to a more linear mode with one or more bowing line segments. Isolated hail is possible early in the convective cycle, with a trend towards more damaging gusts with time. Given the modest and veered low-level flow, the tornado potential will be low, but the presence of a boundary suggests that there remains a low-probability tornado risk. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated thunderstorms may initiate this afternoon along the surface dryline from southwest KS into the eastern OK/TX Panhandles and western OK. While deep-layer shear will be weaker with southward extent across the southern High Plains, a narrow zone of minimal MLCIN along/east of the dryline may support isolated convection capable of producing both locally severe hail and wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL HIGH AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail, severe/damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes remain likely this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains into Iowa. ...20z Update OH valley/Midwest... Ahead of several MCVs and outflow from prior convection, ample heating is supporting destabilization amid mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely across over southern IL/IN into northern KY through this evening. Moderate buoyancy and ~30 kt of deep-layer shear will promote a mix of organized multicell structures capable of damaging gusts and some hail. A tornado or two also remains possible with any stronger linear clusters or transient supercells able to become established. See MCD#735 for short term information. ...Central High Plains to the Mid MO Valley... Several foci for strong to severe convection remain apparent this afternoon along a broad frontal zone from the Rockies/High Plains to the Mid MO Valley. Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening near the intersection of the surface trough and stalled front across the mid MO Valley. Moderate to strong destabilization and 40+ kt of westerly deep-layer shear will support supercell structures with large hail and damaging winds over te mid MO Valley. A locally greater tornado risk may develop with any sustained supercells across parts of eastern NE and southern IA into northern MO where baked low-level flow near a modifying outflow boundary intersects with the stalled front. Initial convective development within the broad upslope regime across the higher terrain of the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains should continue to intensify as it moves eastward this afternoon/evening encountering progressively stronger buoyancy and shear. This will support supercells with large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two from northeastern CO and southwest NE into northwest KS. Upscale growth into one or more clusters with a continued severe threat is expected tonight along and north of the stationary front across the central Plains. See MCD#736 for more information. ...Southern Plains... A conditional risk for strong thunderstorms remains apparent along the dryline late this afternoon/evening across portions of the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. Displaced from the stronger deep-layer shear, and likely high based owing the strong low-level mixing, predominately multi cell storms are possible amid steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Confidence in convective initiation remains low but a risk for damaging gusts and hail remains possible. ..Lyons.. 05/16/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026/ ...Central High Plains into Mid MO Valley... Recent surface analysis placed a low over southwest KS, with a warm front extending through a low over far southeast NE to a third low over southern WI. The low over southwest KS is forecast to fill while another low develops back farther west across southeast CO today. As it does, low-level moisture advection will persist across the central Plains, while a deeper upper trough traverses the Intermountain West. Combination of low-level convergence east and north of the surface low and increasing large-scale ascent will favor thunderstorm development during the late afternoon/early evening across northeast CO. This initial activity is expected to be supercellular, with large to very large hail as the primary risk. This initial activity should be high-based, with strong downdrafts resulting in a quick transition to a linear mode. Even so, some tornado risk is still apparent, particularly with the southernmost supercells that persist through the early evening when a strengthening low-level jet will lengthen low-level hodographs considerably. Most guidance continues to suggest that an intense bowing cluster, with significant wind gusts over 75 mph possible, will develop and spread eastward along/near the warm front from along the southern NE/northern KS border vicinity through the evening. Given the organized nature of this line, it should persist throughout most of the night, and an eastward expansion has been made to the Enhanced Risk to account for increased probability of strong gusts into more of southeast NE. A separate area of intense thunderstorms is anticipated farther east this afternoon/evening along/near the warm front. Given the ongoing thunderstorms across northern MO, there is some question to where the front consolidates this afternoon. Consensus within the guidance places it from far southeast NE across southern IA, but there is some chance it ends up a bit farther south in far northern MO. Robust thunderstorm development is expected along this boundary this afternoon amid strong low-level moisture advection and heating, and persistent low-level convergence. Environmental conditions support supercells capable of all severe hazards, including large to very large hail (isolated 2"+ inches in diameter) and tornadoes, but a messy convective mode and related storm interference could disrupt updrafts and may limit discreteness. Tornado risk will be focused along/near the front where backed low-level easterly winds may locally enhance 0-1 km SRH. Some clustering is possible, with an attendant threat for more damaging gusts wherever this clustering occurs. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley... With the primary shortwave trough well west of the region, mesoscale features will dominate the severe potential across the region today. One such feature is the MCV currently moving through southeast MO. This feature is expected to result in a localized increase in mid-level flow along its eastern periphery as it progresses eastward/northeastward along the OH River vicinity. Filtered heating and/or outflow from the ongoing showers and thunderstorms could result in a baroclinic zone ahead of this vorticity maximum from north-central KY into far southern IN. Expectation is that ascent attendant to the MCS coupled with low-level convergence along this boundary will result in additional thunderstorm development this afternoon. The locally enhanced mid-level flow coupled with modest low-level southerly flow should result in moderate vertical shear, with effective bulk shear values from 30 to 40 kt. This is sufficient for updraft organization, but the mixed boundary layer will likely support strong downdrafts. The general expectation is for an early mostly multicell/isolated supercell mode to transition quickly to a more linear mode with one or more bowing line segments. Isolated hail is possible early in the convective cycle, with a trend towards more damaging gusts with time. Given the modest and veered low-level flow, the tornado potential will be low, but the presence of a boundary suggests that there remains a low-probability tornado risk. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated thunderstorms may initiate this afternoon along the surface dryline from southwest KS into the eastern OK/TX Panhandles and western OK. While deep-layer shear will be weaker with southward extent across the southern High Plains, a narrow zone of minimal MLCIN along/east of the dryline may support isolated convection capable of producing both locally severe hail and wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL HIGH AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail, severe/damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes remain likely this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains into Iowa. ...20z Update OH valley/Midwest... Ahead of several MCVs and outflow from prior convection, ample heating is supporting destabilization amid mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely across over southern IL/IN into northern KY through this evening. Moderate buoyancy and ~30 kt of deep-layer shear will promote a mix of organized multicell structures capable of damaging gusts and some hail. A tornado or two also remains possible with any stronger linear clusters or transient supercells able to become established. See MCD#735 for short term information. ...Central High Plains to the Mid MO Valley... Several foci for strong to severe convection remain apparent this afternoon along a broad frontal zone from the Rockies/High Plains to the Mid MO Valley. Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening near the intersection of the surface trough and stalled front across the mid MO Valley. Moderate to strong destabilization and 40+ kt of westerly deep-layer shear will support supercell structures with large hail and damaging winds over te mid MO Valley. A locally greater tornado risk may develop with any sustained supercells across parts of eastern NE and southern IA into northern MO where baked low-level flow near a modifying outflow boundary intersects with the stalled front. Initial convective development within the broad upslope regime across the higher terrain of the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains should continue to intensify as it moves eastward this afternoon/evening encountering progressively stronger buoyancy and shear. This will support supercells with large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two from northeastern CO and southwest NE into northwest KS. Upscale growth into one or more clusters with a continued severe threat is expected tonight along and north of the stationary front across the central Plains. See MCD#736 for more information. ...Southern Plains... A conditional risk for strong thunderstorms remains apparent along the dryline late this afternoon/evening across portions of the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. Displaced from the stronger deep-layer shear, and likely high based owing the strong low-level mixing, predominately multi cell storms are possible amid steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Confidence in convective initiation remains low but a risk for damaging gusts and hail remains possible. ..Lyons.. 05/16/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026/ ...Central High Plains into Mid MO Valley... Recent surface analysis placed a low over southwest KS, with a warm front extending through a low over far southeast NE to a third low over southern WI. The low over southwest KS is forecast to fill while another low develops back farther west across southeast CO today. As it does, low-level moisture advection will persist across the central Plains, while a deeper upper trough traverses the Intermountain West. Combination of low-level convergence east and north of the surface low and increasing large-scale ascent will favor thunderstorm development during the late afternoon/early evening across northeast CO. This initial activity is expected to be supercellular, with large to very large hail as the primary risk. This initial activity should be high-based, with strong downdrafts resulting in a quick transition to a linear mode. Even so, some tornado risk is still apparent, particularly with the southernmost supercells that persist through the early evening when a strengthening low-level jet will lengthen low-level hodographs considerably. Most guidance continues to suggest that an intense bowing cluster, with significant wind gusts over 75 mph possible, will develop and spread eastward along/near the warm front from along the southern NE/northern KS border vicinity through the evening. Given the organized nature of this line, it should persist throughout most of the night, and an eastward expansion has been made to the Enhanced Risk to account for increased probability of strong gusts into more of southeast NE. A separate area of intense thunderstorms is anticipated farther east this afternoon/evening along/near the warm front. Given the ongoing thunderstorms across northern MO, there is some question to where the front consolidates this afternoon. Consensus within the guidance places it from far southeast NE across southern IA, but there is some chance it ends up a bit farther south in far northern MO. Robust thunderstorm development is expected along this boundary this afternoon amid strong low-level moisture advection and heating, and persistent low-level convergence. Environmental conditions support supercells capable of all severe hazards, including large to very large hail (isolated 2"+ inches in diameter) and tornadoes, but a messy convective mode and related storm interference could disrupt updrafts and may limit discreteness. Tornado risk will be focused along/near the front where backed low-level easterly winds may locally enhance 0-1 km SRH. Some clustering is possible, with an attendant threat for more damaging gusts wherever this clustering occurs. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley... With the primary shortwave trough well west of the region, mesoscale features will dominate the severe potential across the region today. One such feature is the MCV currently moving through southeast MO. This feature is expected to result in a localized increase in mid-level flow along its eastern periphery as it progresses eastward/northeastward along the OH River vicinity. Filtered heating and/or outflow from the ongoing showers and thunderstorms could result in a baroclinic zone ahead of this vorticity maximum from north-central KY into far southern IN. Expectation is that ascent attendant to the MCS coupled with low-level convergence along this boundary will result in additional thunderstorm development this afternoon. The locally enhanced mid-level flow coupled with modest low-level southerly flow should result in moderate vertical shear, with effective bulk shear values from 30 to 40 kt. This is sufficient for updraft organization, but the mixed boundary layer will likely support strong downdrafts. The general expectation is for an early mostly multicell/isolated supercell mode to transition quickly to a more linear mode with one or more bowing line segments. Isolated hail is possible early in the convective cycle, with a trend towards more damaging gusts with time. Given the modest and veered low-level flow, the tornado potential will be low, but the presence of a boundary suggests that there remains a low-probability tornado risk. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated thunderstorms may initiate this afternoon along the surface dryline from southwest KS into the eastern OK/TX Panhandles and western OK. While deep-layer shear will be weaker with southward extent across the southern High Plains, a narrow zone of minimal MLCIN along/east of the dryline may support isolated convection capable of producing both locally severe hail and wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL HIGH AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail, severe/damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes remain likely this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains into Iowa. ...20z Update OH valley/Midwest... Ahead of several MCVs and outflow from prior convection, ample heating is supporting destabilization amid mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely across over southern IL/IN into northern KY through this evening. Moderate buoyancy and ~30 kt of deep-layer shear will promote a mix of organized multicell structures capable of damaging gusts and some hail. A tornado or two also remains possible with any stronger linear clusters or transient supercells able to become established. See MCD#735 for short term information. ...Central High Plains to the Mid MO Valley... Several foci for strong to severe convection remain apparent this afternoon along a broad frontal zone from the Rockies/High Plains to the Mid MO Valley. Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening near the intersection of the surface trough and stalled front across the mid MO Valley. Moderate to strong destabilization and 40+ kt of westerly deep-layer shear will support supercell structures with large hail and damaging winds over te mid MO Valley. A locally greater tornado risk may develop with any sustained supercells across parts of eastern NE and southern IA into northern MO where baked low-level flow near a modifying outflow boundary intersects with the stalled front. Initial convective development within the broad upslope regime across the higher terrain of the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains should continue to intensify as it moves eastward this afternoon/evening encountering progressively stronger buoyancy and shear. This will support supercells with large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two from northeastern CO and southwest NE into northwest KS. Upscale growth into one or more clusters with a continued severe threat is expected tonight along and north of the stationary front across the central Plains. See MCD#736 for more information. ...Southern Plains... A conditional risk for strong thunderstorms remains apparent along the dryline late this afternoon/evening across portions of the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. Displaced from the stronger deep-layer shear, and likely high based owing the strong low-level mixing, predominately multi cell storms are possible amid steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Confidence in convective initiation remains low but a risk for damaging gusts and hail remains possible. ..Lyons.. 05/16/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026/ ...Central High Plains into Mid MO Valley... Recent surface analysis placed a low over southwest KS, with a warm front extending through a low over far southeast NE to a third low over southern WI. The low over southwest KS is forecast to fill while another low develops back farther west across southeast CO today. As it does, low-level moisture advection will persist across the central Plains, while a deeper upper trough traverses the Intermountain West. Combination of low-level convergence east and north of the surface low and increasing large-scale ascent will favor thunderstorm development during the late afternoon/early evening across northeast CO. This initial activity is expected to be supercellular, with large to very large hail as the primary risk. This initial activity should be high-based, with strong downdrafts resulting in a quick transition to a linear mode. Even so, some tornado risk is still apparent, particularly with the southernmost supercells that persist through the early evening when a strengthening low-level jet will lengthen low-level hodographs considerably. Most guidance continues to suggest that an intense bowing cluster, with significant wind gusts over 75 mph possible, will develop and spread eastward along/near the warm front from along the southern NE/northern KS border vicinity through the evening. Given the organized nature of this line, it should persist throughout most of the night, and an eastward expansion has been made to the Enhanced Risk to account for increased probability of strong gusts into more of southeast NE. A separate area of intense thunderstorms is anticipated farther east this afternoon/evening along/near the warm front. Given the ongoing thunderstorms across northern MO, there is some question to where the front consolidates this afternoon. Consensus within the guidance places it from far southeast NE across southern IA, but there is some chance it ends up a bit farther south in far northern MO. Robust thunderstorm development is expected along this boundary this afternoon amid strong low-level moisture advection and heating, and persistent low-level convergence. Environmental conditions support supercells capable of all severe hazards, including large to very large hail (isolated 2"+ inches in diameter) and tornadoes, but a messy convective mode and related storm interference could disrupt updrafts and may limit discreteness. Tornado risk will be focused along/near the front where backed low-level easterly winds may locally enhance 0-1 km SRH. Some clustering is possible, with an attendant threat for more damaging gusts wherever this clustering occurs. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley... With the primary shortwave trough well west of the region, mesoscale features will dominate the severe potential across the region today. One such feature is the MCV currently moving through southeast MO. This feature is expected to result in a localized increase in mid-level flow along its eastern periphery as it progresses eastward/northeastward along the OH River vicinity. Filtered heating and/or outflow from the ongoing showers and thunderstorms could result in a baroclinic zone ahead of this vorticity maximum from north-central KY into far southern IN. Expectation is that ascent attendant to the MCS coupled with low-level convergence along this boundary will result in additional thunderstorm development this afternoon. The locally enhanced mid-level flow coupled with modest low-level southerly flow should result in moderate vertical shear, with effective bulk shear values from 30 to 40 kt. This is sufficient for updraft organization, but the mixed boundary layer will likely support strong downdrafts. The general expectation is for an early mostly multicell/isolated supercell mode to transition quickly to a more linear mode with one or more bowing line segments. Isolated hail is possible early in the convective cycle, with a trend towards more damaging gusts with time. Given the modest and veered low-level flow, the tornado potential will be low, but the presence of a boundary suggests that there remains a low-probability tornado risk. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated thunderstorms may initiate this afternoon along the surface dryline from southwest KS into the eastern OK/TX Panhandles and western OK. While deep-layer shear will be weaker with southward extent across the southern High Plains, a narrow zone of minimal MLCIN along/east of the dryline may support isolated convection capable of producing both locally severe hail and wind gusts. Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat May 16 20:03:02 UTC 2026.

MD 0736 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0736 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Areas affected...Northeast Colorado...northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 161936Z - 162100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The early stages of thunderstorm development are underway, with an increasing threat for large hail and severe outflow gusts into this evening. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely by about 21z. DISCUSSION...Convection is deepening over the Palmer Divide per 1-km visible satellite imagery as of 20z. Downstream from this convection, persistent upslope flow (north of the lee cyclone in southeast CO) is advecting low-level moisture westward as surface temperatures warm into the low-mid 80s. The storm environment will favor initial/high-based supercells capable of producing large hail and severe outflow gusts, and the supercell threat is most likely to persist along the southern flank of the convection. An eventual increase in storm coverage/intensity is expected as the storms encounter increasing buoyancy with eastward extent, and as hodographs lengthen with increasing low-level curvature (which could become sufficient for an isolated tornado or two). Thus, a severe thunderstorm watch will be likely by about 21z. ..Thompson/Mosier.. 05/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU... LAT...LON 39250079 39070133 38930220 38920293 39100361 39430371 40330309 40870222 40980159 40960101 40510071 39830059 39250079 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...PARTS OF IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Numerous strong thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of all hazards (including very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes) will be possible across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is forecast to extend from MT to the Four Corners Monday morning. An upper shortwave trough emanating from the base of the larger-scale western U.S. trough is forecast to lift northeast across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest through the period. As this occurs, a belt of strong southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread OK/KS into IA and the Great Lakes vicinity. Beneath enhanced southwesterly deep layer flow, rich Gulf moisture will spread north/northeast from the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley and Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a cold front will reside from the Upper MS Valley to a surface low over central KS during the afternoon. A dryline will extend southward from the KS surface low into western OK/west-central TX. A volatile environment is expected across parts of the warm sector, particularly across KS into IA, where significant all-hazards severe storms are expected. ...Central KS into southeast NE/southwest IA/northwest MO... Upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints are forecast ahead of the dryline and cold front. This area should remain mostly free from convective contamination from any continuing convection from late in the Day 2/Sunday period. Strong heating and very steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to strong destabilization. Supercell wind profiles are expected, with backed low-level winds veering with height, while also increasing in speed. Southerly 850-700 mb flow is forecast to strengthen in the 21-00z time frame as large-scale ascent also increases. This will allow for enlarged low-level hodograph curvature and increasing 0-1 km SRH. Robust convection will develop within the warm sector and supercell capable of very large hail (2-4 inch diameter), strong to intense tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. With time, convection will likely grow upscale as the surface cold front begins to develop southeast through the evening/nighttime hours. ...Central IA into portions of IL/WI/IN/Lower MI... Uncertainty is greater with northeast extent on Monday. Ongoing convection and cloud cover is possible across parts of IA into WI Monday morning. Regardless, a moist airmass will be in place. Depending on location and extent of morning convection, airmass recovery is possible. Furthermore, downstream destabilization into parts of northern IL/IN and Lower MI seems more likely. This could result in re-intensification of any morning convection as it spreads east. While convective evolution remains uncertain, a damaging wind and hail risk appears possible. ...OK/TX... A more conditional severe risk exists further south across OK/TX. Large-scale ascent will remain weaker further south. However, strong instability within the very moist warm sector will exist. Deep layer flow will be somewhat less compared to further north, but still sufficient for supercells. If storms can develop, a risk for large to very large hail will exist. ..Leitman.. 05/16/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...PARTS OF IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Numerous strong thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of all hazards (including very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes) will be possible across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is forecast to extend from MT to the Four Corners Monday morning. An upper shortwave trough emanating from the base of the larger-scale western U.S. trough is forecast to lift northeast across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest through the period. As this occurs, a belt of strong southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread OK/KS into IA and the Great Lakes vicinity. Beneath enhanced southwesterly deep layer flow, rich Gulf moisture will spread north/northeast from the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley and Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a cold front will reside from the Upper MS Valley to a surface low over central KS during the afternoon. A dryline will extend southward from the KS surface low into western OK/west-central TX. A volatile environment is expected across parts of the warm sector, particularly across KS into IA, where significant all-hazards severe storms are expected. ...Central KS into southeast NE/southwest IA/northwest MO... Upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints are forecast ahead of the dryline and cold front. This area should remain mostly free from convective contamination from any continuing convection from late in the Day 2/Sunday period. Strong heating and very steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to strong destabilization. Supercell wind profiles are expected, with backed low-level winds veering with height, while also increasing in speed. Southerly 850-700 mb flow is forecast to strengthen in the 21-00z time frame as large-scale ascent also increases. This will allow for enlarged low-level hodograph curvature and increasing 0-1 km SRH. Robust convection will develop within the warm sector and supercell capable of very large hail (2-4 inch diameter), strong to intense tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. With time, convection will likely grow upscale as the surface cold front begins to develop southeast through the evening/nighttime hours. ...Central IA into portions of IL/WI/IN/Lower MI... Uncertainty is greater with northeast extent on Monday. Ongoing convection and cloud cover is possible across parts of IA into WI Monday morning. Regardless, a moist airmass will be in place. Depending on location and extent of morning convection, airmass recovery is possible. Furthermore, downstream destabilization into parts of northern IL/IN and Lower MI seems more likely. This could result in re-intensification of any morning convection as it spreads east. While convective evolution remains uncertain, a damaging wind and hail risk appears possible. ...OK/TX... A more conditional severe risk exists further south across OK/TX. Large-scale ascent will remain weaker further south. However, strong instability within the very moist warm sector will exist. Deep layer flow will be somewhat less compared to further north, but still sufficient for supercells. If storms can develop, a risk for large to very large hail will exist. ..Leitman.. 05/16/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...PARTS OF IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Numerous strong thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of all hazards (including very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes) will be possible across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is forecast to extend from MT to the Four Corners Monday morning. An upper shortwave trough emanating from the base of the larger-scale western U.S. trough is forecast to lift northeast across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest through the period. As this occurs, a belt of strong southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread OK/KS into IA and the Great Lakes vicinity. Beneath enhanced southwesterly deep layer flow, rich Gulf moisture will spread north/northeast from the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley and Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a cold front will reside from the Upper MS Valley to a surface low over central KS during the afternoon. A dryline will extend southward from the KS surface low into western OK/west-central TX. A volatile environment is expected across parts of the warm sector, particularly across KS into IA, where significant all-hazards severe storms are expected. ...Central KS into southeast NE/southwest IA/northwest MO... Upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints are forecast ahead of the dryline and cold front. This area should remain mostly free from convective contamination from any continuing convection from late in the Day 2/Sunday period. Strong heating and very steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to strong destabilization. Supercell wind profiles are expected, with backed low-level winds veering with height, while also increasing in speed. Southerly 850-700 mb flow is forecast to strengthen in the 21-00z time frame as large-scale ascent also increases. This will allow for enlarged low-level hodograph curvature and increasing 0-1 km SRH. Robust convection will develop within the warm sector and supercell capable of very large hail (2-4 inch diameter), strong to intense tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. With time, convection will likely grow upscale as the surface cold front begins to develop southeast through the evening/nighttime hours. ...Central IA into portions of IL/WI/IN/Lower MI... Uncertainty is greater with northeast extent on Monday. Ongoing convection and cloud cover is possible across parts of IA into WI Monday morning. Regardless, a moist airmass will be in place. Depending on location and extent of morning convection, airmass recovery is possible. Furthermore, downstream destabilization into parts of northern IL/IN and Lower MI seems more likely. This could result in re-intensification of any morning convection as it spreads east. While convective evolution remains uncertain, a damaging wind and hail risk appears possible. ...OK/TX... A more conditional severe risk exists further south across OK/TX. Large-scale ascent will remain weaker further south. However, strong instability within the very moist warm sector will exist. Deep layer flow will be somewhat less compared to further north, but still sufficient for supercells. If storms can develop, a risk for large to very large hail will exist. ..Leitman.. 05/16/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...PARTS OF IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Numerous strong thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of all hazards (including very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes) will be possible across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is forecast to extend from MT to the Four Corners Monday morning. An upper shortwave trough emanating from the base of the larger-scale western U.S. trough is forecast to lift northeast across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest through the period. As this occurs, a belt of strong southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread OK/KS into IA and the Great Lakes vicinity. Beneath enhanced southwesterly deep layer flow, rich Gulf moisture will spread north/northeast from the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley and Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a cold front will reside from the Upper MS Valley to a surface low over central KS during the afternoon. A dryline will extend southward from the KS surface low into western OK/west-central TX. A volatile environment is expected across parts of the warm sector, particularly across KS into IA, where significant all-hazards severe storms are expected. ...Central KS into southeast NE/southwest IA/northwest MO... Upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints are forecast ahead of the dryline and cold front. This area should remain mostly free from convective contamination from any continuing convection from late in the Day 2/Sunday period. Strong heating and very steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to strong destabilization. Supercell wind profiles are expected, with backed low-level winds veering with height, while also increasing in speed. Southerly 850-700 mb flow is forecast to strengthen in the 21-00z time frame as large-scale ascent also increases. This will allow for enlarged low-level hodograph curvature and increasing 0-1 km SRH. Robust convection will develop within the warm sector and supercell capable of very large hail (2-4 inch diameter), strong to intense tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. With time, convection will likely grow upscale as the surface cold front begins to develop southeast through the evening/nighttime hours. ...Central IA into portions of IL/WI/IN/Lower MI... Uncertainty is greater with northeast extent on Monday. Ongoing convection and cloud cover is possible across parts of IA into WI Monday morning. Regardless, a moist airmass will be in place. Depending on location and extent of morning convection, airmass recovery is possible. Furthermore, downstream destabilization into parts of northern IL/IN and Lower MI seems more likely. This could result in re-intensification of any morning convection as it spreads east. While convective evolution remains uncertain, a damaging wind and hail risk appears possible. ...OK/TX... A more conditional severe risk exists further south across OK/TX. Large-scale ascent will remain weaker further south. However, strong instability within the very moist warm sector will exist. Deep layer flow will be somewhat less compared to further north, but still sufficient for supercells. If storms can develop, a risk for large to very large hail will exist. ..Leitman.. 05/16/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...PARTS OF IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Numerous strong thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of all hazards (including very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes) will be possible across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is forecast to extend from MT to the Four Corners Monday morning. An upper shortwave trough emanating from the base of the larger-scale western U.S. trough is forecast to lift northeast across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest through the period. As this occurs, a belt of strong southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread OK/KS into IA and the Great Lakes vicinity. Beneath enhanced southwesterly deep layer flow, rich Gulf moisture will spread north/northeast from the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley and Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a cold front will reside from the Upper MS Valley to a surface low over central KS during the afternoon. A dryline will extend southward from the KS surface low into western OK/west-central TX. A volatile environment is expected across parts of the warm sector, particularly across KS into IA, where significant all-hazards severe storms are expected. ...Central KS into southeast NE/southwest IA/northwest MO... Upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints are forecast ahead of the dryline and cold front. This area should remain mostly free from convective contamination from any continuing convection from late in the Day 2/Sunday period. Strong heating and very steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to strong destabilization. Supercell wind profiles are expected, with backed low-level winds veering with height, while also increasing in speed. Southerly 850-700 mb flow is forecast to strengthen in the 21-00z time frame as large-scale ascent also increases. This will allow for enlarged low-level hodograph curvature and increasing 0-1 km SRH. Robust convection will develop within the warm sector and supercell capable of very large hail (2-4 inch diameter), strong to intense tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. With time, convection will likely grow upscale as the surface cold front begins to develop southeast through the evening/nighttime hours. ...Central IA into portions of IL/WI/IN/Lower MI... Uncertainty is greater with northeast extent on Monday. Ongoing convection and cloud cover is possible across parts of IA into WI Monday morning. Regardless, a moist airmass will be in place. Depending on location and extent of morning convection, airmass recovery is possible. Furthermore, downstream destabilization into parts of northern IL/IN and Lower MI seems more likely. This could result in re-intensification of any morning convection as it spreads east. While convective evolution remains uncertain, a damaging wind and hail risk appears possible. ...OK/TX... A more conditional severe risk exists further south across OK/TX. Large-scale ascent will remain weaker further south. However, strong instability within the very moist warm sector will exist. Deep layer flow will be somewhat less compared to further north, but still sufficient for supercells. If storms can develop, a risk for large to very large hail will exist. ..Leitman.. 05/16/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The threat for dangerous wildfire ignition and spread potential on Day 2/Sunday continues over portions of the southern High Plains. The overall forecast remains on track with very little change to the magnitude of southwesterly winds (sustained near 25-30 mph over the Critical area) and minimum RHs in the single digits. Minimal changes were made to the drawn areas mainly as a result of slight fluctuations in the position of the dryline and how far northeast dry air is anticipated to wrap into the surface low. While convection will be possible along the boundary of southwest Oklahoma into south-central Kansas, storms are expected to remain wet and quickly move into less receptive vegetation providing a much lower threat than previous days. Even so, Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions over potential lightning holdovers from previous days will only exacerbate the overall fire environment risk. ..Stearns.. 05/16/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0224 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026/ ...Synopsis... **Dangerous wildfire spread conditions are expected across the southern High Plains tomorrow (Sunday)** ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... An active fire weather pattern will become established across the southwestern U.S. tomorrow (Sunday) as a pronounced mid-level impulse, embedded in a broader upper trough over the Intermountain West, traverses the Rockies and supports further deepening of a surface low over the Plains. Strong gradient flow across the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains will support widespread 25-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds, amid 5-15 percent RH, warranting the introduction of broad Critical highlights. Extremely Critical conditions are expected across extreme eastern New Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, extreme southeast Colorado, and far southwest Kansas. Here, the aforementioned favorable wind/RH will overspread critically dry fuel beds with fuel loading, where several wildfires have developed over the past few days. Widespread sustained surface winds exceeding traditional Extremely Critical criteria (30+ mph) are somewhat in question. However, compensating factors for a volatile and dangerous wildfire-spread scenario include the combination of fuel loading of grasses exceeding the 95 percentile, as well as the exacerbation of holdovers from wildfires ignited over the last few days. The eastward expansion of Extremely Critical highlights may be needed across the remainder of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, as well as southwestern Kansas, when the exact position of the dryline may be pinpointed with relatively higher confidence. ...California Central Valley Region... A northwesterly mid-level speed max will overspread California tomorrow, atop a dry and mixed boundary layer. By afternoon peak heating, 20-25 mph sustained north-northwesterly surface will overlap with 15-20 percent RH, amid drying fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The threat for dangerous wildfire ignition and spread potential on Day 2/Sunday continues over portions of the southern High Plains. The overall forecast remains on track with very little change to the magnitude of southwesterly winds (sustained near 25-30 mph over the Critical area) and minimum RHs in the single digits. Minimal changes were made to the drawn areas mainly as a result of slight fluctuations in the position of the dryline and how far northeast dry air is anticipated to wrap into the surface low. While convection will be possible along the boundary of southwest Oklahoma into south-central Kansas, storms are expected to remain wet and quickly move into less receptive vegetation providing a much lower threat than previous days. Even so, Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions over potential lightning holdovers from previous days will only exacerbate the overall fire environment risk. ..Stearns.. 05/16/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0224 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026/ ...Synopsis... **Dangerous wildfire spread conditions are expected across the southern High Plains tomorrow (Sunday)** ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... An active fire weather pattern will become established across the southwestern U.S. tomorrow (Sunday) as a pronounced mid-level impulse, embedded in a broader upper trough over the Intermountain West, traverses the Rockies and supports further deepening of a surface low over the Plains. Strong gradient flow across the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains will support widespread 25-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds, amid 5-15 percent RH, warranting the introduction of broad Critical highlights. Extremely Critical conditions are expected across extreme eastern New Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, extreme southeast Colorado, and far southwest Kansas. Here, the aforementioned favorable wind/RH will overspread critically dry fuel beds with fuel loading, where several wildfires have developed over the past few days. Widespread sustained surface winds exceeding traditional Extremely Critical criteria (30+ mph) are somewhat in question. However, compensating factors for a volatile and dangerous wildfire-spread scenario include the combination of fuel loading of grasses exceeding the 95 percentile, as well as the exacerbation of holdovers from wildfires ignited over the last few days. The eastward expansion of Extremely Critical highlights may be needed across the remainder of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, as well as southwestern Kansas, when the exact position of the dryline may be pinpointed with relatively higher confidence. ...California Central Valley Region... A northwesterly mid-level speed max will overspread California tomorrow, atop a dry and mixed boundary layer. By afternoon peak heating, 20-25 mph sustained north-northwesterly surface will overlap with 15-20 percent RH, amid drying fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The threat for dangerous wildfire ignition and spread potential on Day 2/Sunday continues over portions of the southern High Plains. The overall forecast remains on track with very little change to the magnitude of southwesterly winds (sustained near 25-30 mph over the Critical area) and minimum RHs in the single digits. Minimal changes were made to the drawn areas mainly as a result of slight fluctuations in the position of the dryline and how far northeast dry air is anticipated to wrap into the surface low. While convection will be possible along the boundary of southwest Oklahoma into south-central Kansas, storms are expected to remain wet and quickly move into less receptive vegetation providing a much lower threat than previous days. Even so, Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions over potential lightning holdovers from previous days will only exacerbate the overall fire environment risk. ..Stearns.. 05/16/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0224 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026/ ...Synopsis... **Dangerous wildfire spread conditions are expected across the southern High Plains tomorrow (Sunday)** ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... An active fire weather pattern will become established across the southwestern U.S. tomorrow (Sunday) as a pronounced mid-level impulse, embedded in a broader upper trough over the Intermountain West, traverses the Rockies and supports further deepening of a surface low over the Plains. Strong gradient flow across the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains will support widespread 25-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds, amid 5-15 percent RH, warranting the introduction of broad Critical highlights. Extremely Critical conditions are expected across extreme eastern New Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, extreme southeast Colorado, and far southwest Kansas. Here, the aforementioned favorable wind/RH will overspread critically dry fuel beds with fuel loading, where several wildfires have developed over the past few days. Widespread sustained surface winds exceeding traditional Extremely Critical criteria (30+ mph) are somewhat in question. However, compensating factors for a volatile and dangerous wildfire-spread scenario include the combination of fuel loading of grasses exceeding the 95 percentile, as well as the exacerbation of holdovers from wildfires ignited over the last few days. The eastward expansion of Extremely Critical highlights may be needed across the remainder of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, as well as southwestern Kansas, when the exact position of the dryline may be pinpointed with relatively higher confidence. ...California Central Valley Region... A northwesterly mid-level speed max will overspread California tomorrow, atop a dry and mixed boundary layer. By afternoon peak heating, 20-25 mph sustained north-northwesterly surface will overlap with 15-20 percent RH, amid drying fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The threat for dangerous wildfire ignition and spread potential on Day 2/Sunday continues over portions of the southern High Plains. The overall forecast remains on track with very little change to the magnitude of southwesterly winds (sustained near 25-30 mph over the Critical area) and minimum RHs in the single digits. Minimal changes were made to the drawn areas mainly as a result of slight fluctuations in the position of the dryline and how far northeast dry air is anticipated to wrap into the surface low. While convection will be possible along the boundary of southwest Oklahoma into south-central Kansas, storms are expected to remain wet and quickly move into less receptive vegetation providing a much lower threat than previous days. Even so, Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions over potential lightning holdovers from previous days will only exacerbate the overall fire environment risk. ..Stearns.. 05/16/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0224 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026/ ...Synopsis... **Dangerous wildfire spread conditions are expected across the southern High Plains tomorrow (Sunday)** ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... An active fire weather pattern will become established across the southwestern U.S. tomorrow (Sunday) as a pronounced mid-level impulse, embedded in a broader upper trough over the Intermountain West, traverses the Rockies and supports further deepening of a surface low over the Plains. Strong gradient flow across the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains will support widespread 25-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds, amid 5-15 percent RH, warranting the introduction of broad Critical highlights. Extremely Critical conditions are expected across extreme eastern New Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, extreme southeast Colorado, and far southwest Kansas. Here, the aforementioned favorable wind/RH will overspread critically dry fuel beds with fuel loading, where several wildfires have developed over the past few days. Widespread sustained surface winds exceeding traditional Extremely Critical criteria (30+ mph) are somewhat in question. However, compensating factors for a volatile and dangerous wildfire-spread scenario include the combination of fuel loading of grasses exceeding the 95 percentile, as well as the exacerbation of holdovers from wildfires ignited over the last few days. The eastward expansion of Extremely Critical highlights may be needed across the remainder of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, as well as southwestern Kansas, when the exact position of the dryline may be pinpointed with relatively higher confidence. ...California Central Valley Region... A northwesterly mid-level speed max will overspread California tomorrow, atop a dry and mixed boundary layer. By afternoon peak heating, 20-25 mph sustained north-northwesterly surface will overlap with 15-20 percent RH, amid drying fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat May 16 17:52:02 UTC 2026.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO...PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND NORTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night from portions of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Supercells with very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible, before one or more linear bands of storms leads to an increase in the wind damage risk. ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough will dig across the western U.S. and pivot east toward the Rockies/Four Corners vicinity on Sunday into early Monday. Meanwhile, an early day upper shortwave impulse is expected to be located over MN/IA. This feature will lift northeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes through Saturday evening. Enhanced southwesterly deep layer flow will overspread the central High Plains to the Upper Midwest while mid to upper 60s F dewpoints spread north across portions of the southern/central Plains to the Mid-MO/MS Valley and as far north as southern MN/WI. At the surface, a lee low will deepen across southeast CO into western KS. A sharp dryline is expected to extend southward across west-central KS into far western OK/TX. Meanwhile, a cold front will extend from eastern SD/central NE into northeast CO by afternoon, while a warm front extends west to east across southern MN/WI and into Lower MI. These boundaries will be focus for severe thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. ...Northeast CO into NE/SD/MN/IA... A volatile environment is expected to develop Sunday afternoon, particularly across parts of NE/SD/MN/IA. Initial thunderstorm development is expected across northeast CO into southwest NE within an upslope flow regime ahead of the approaching synoptic cold front. Low-level capping and weaker boundary layer moisture is expected across this area. However, even elevated convection atop the cooler/drier boundary layer will pose a risk for large to very large hail given very steep lapse rates, strong vertical shear and elongated/straight hodographs. With time, additional convection is expected to develop further east within the warm sector across parts of eastern NE and southeast SD near the triple point and on the nose of the dry slot as a subtle lead shortwave impulse overspreads the region. While some morning cloudiness and showers could be ongoing across parts of the area this activity is expected to quickly shift northeast and allow for clearing. As a result,stronger heating of the moistening airmass will result in a narrow corridor of strong destabilization (MLCAPE 2500-3500 J/kg). Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles, with effective shear greater than 40 kt across the region. Backed low-level winds within the warm sector, veering with height, will contribute to increasing low-level SRH and favorably curved low-level hodographs. While the corridor for discrete supercells will be narrow, partly due to capping and modest large-scale ascent and partly due to the advancing cold front resulting in upscale growth, the expectation is for a few supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes and large to very large hail across northeast NE/far southeast SD/southwest MN and northwest IA. With time, one or more linear/bowing segments is expected to develop near the east/southeast-advancing cold front and as the low-level jet increases during the evening. An attendant risk of severe wind gusts will accompany this activity. The severe risk will diminish with time and eastward extent during the nighttime hours as instability weakens and capping increases. ...KS/OK vicinity... A more conditional risk is expected across KS into the southern Plains vicinity. Capping and weak large-scale ascent will likely inhibit convection. Nevertheless, a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment will reside along the surface dryline from west-central KS into western OK and eastern parts of the TX Panhandle toward western north TX. Hot conditions behind the dryline and moderate low-level convergence, particularly across the northwest OK vicinity, may support sufficient mixing/deeper dryline circulations such that a few storms develop. If these storms develop, they will likely be higher based. Given very steep low to midlevel lapse rates, moderate instability, and supercell wind profiles, large to very large hail and strong/severe wind gusts will be possible. Any storms that develop may struggle to move off the dryline, and the corridor for severe potential will likely remain confined. ...Lower MI... Isolated thunderstorm are possible Sunday afternoon as a warm front lifts northward and a weak upper shortwave impulse overspreads the region. Weak to moderate destabilization is forecast as low-level moisture increases beneath modest midlevel lapse rates. While low-level winds will be light, vertically veering wind profiles and increasing southwesterly mid/upper level flow will support organized updrafts. Isolated gusty winds or small hail could occur with any surface-based storms that occur into the evening hours. ..Leitman.. 05/16/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO...PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND NORTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night from portions of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Supercells with very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible, before one or more linear bands of storms leads to an increase in the wind damage risk. ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough will dig across the western U.S. and pivot east toward the Rockies/Four Corners vicinity on Sunday into early Monday. Meanwhile, an early day upper shortwave impulse is expected to be located over MN/IA. This feature will lift northeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes through Saturday evening. Enhanced southwesterly deep layer flow will overspread the central High Plains to the Upper Midwest while mid to upper 60s F dewpoints spread north across portions of the southern/central Plains to the Mid-MO/MS Valley and as far north as southern MN/WI. At the surface, a lee low will deepen across southeast CO into western KS. A sharp dryline is expected to extend southward across west-central KS into far western OK/TX. Meanwhile, a cold front will extend from eastern SD/central NE into northeast CO by afternoon, while a warm front extends west to east across southern MN/WI and into Lower MI. These boundaries will be focus for severe thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. ...Northeast CO into NE/SD/MN/IA... A volatile environment is expected to develop Sunday afternoon, particularly across parts of NE/SD/MN/IA. Initial thunderstorm development is expected across northeast CO into southwest NE within an upslope flow regime ahead of the approaching synoptic cold front. Low-level capping and weaker boundary layer moisture is expected across this area. However, even elevated convection atop the cooler/drier boundary layer will pose a risk for large to very large hail given very steep lapse rates, strong vertical shear and elongated/straight hodographs. With time, additional convection is expected to develop further east within the warm sector across parts of eastern NE and southeast SD near the triple point and on the nose of the dry slot as a subtle lead shortwave impulse overspreads the region. While some morning cloudiness and showers could be ongoing across parts of the area this activity is expected to quickly shift northeast and allow for clearing. As a result,stronger heating of the moistening airmass will result in a narrow corridor of strong destabilization (MLCAPE 2500-3500 J/kg). Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles, with effective shear greater than 40 kt across the region. Backed low-level winds within the warm sector, veering with height, will contribute to increasing low-level SRH and favorably curved low-level hodographs. While the corridor for discrete supercells will be narrow, partly due to capping and modest large-scale ascent and partly due to the advancing cold front resulting in upscale growth, the expectation is for a few supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes and large to very large hail across northeast NE/far southeast SD/southwest MN and northwest IA. With time, one or more linear/bowing segments is expected to develop near the east/southeast-advancing cold front and as the low-level jet increases during the evening. An attendant risk of severe wind gusts will accompany this activity. The severe risk will diminish with time and eastward extent during the nighttime hours as instability weakens and capping increases. ...KS/OK vicinity... A more conditional risk is expected across KS into the southern Plains vicinity. Capping and weak large-scale ascent will likely inhibit convection. Nevertheless, a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment will reside along the surface dryline from west-central KS into western OK and eastern parts of the TX Panhandle toward western north TX. Hot conditions behind the dryline and moderate low-level convergence, particularly across the northwest OK vicinity, may support sufficient mixing/deeper dryline circulations such that a few storms develop. If these storms develop, they will likely be higher based. Given very steep low to midlevel lapse rates, moderate instability, and supercell wind profiles, large to very large hail and strong/severe wind gusts will be possible. Any storms that develop may struggle to move off the dryline, and the corridor for severe potential will likely remain confined. ...Lower MI... Isolated thunderstorm are possible Sunday afternoon as a warm front lifts northward and a weak upper shortwave impulse overspreads the region. Weak to moderate destabilization is forecast as low-level moisture increases beneath modest midlevel lapse rates. While low-level winds will be light, vertically veering wind profiles and increasing southwesterly mid/upper level flow will support organized updrafts. Isolated gusty winds or small hail could occur with any surface-based storms that occur into the evening hours. ..Leitman.. 05/16/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO...PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND NORTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night from portions of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Supercells with very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible, before one or more linear bands of storms leads to an increase in the wind damage risk. ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough will dig across the western U.S. and pivot east toward the Rockies/Four Corners vicinity on Sunday into early Monday. Meanwhile, an early day upper shortwave impulse is expected to be located over MN/IA. This feature will lift northeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes through Saturday evening. Enhanced southwesterly deep layer flow will overspread the central High Plains to the Upper Midwest while mid to upper 60s F dewpoints spread north across portions of the southern/central Plains to the Mid-MO/MS Valley and as far north as southern MN/WI. At the surface, a lee low will deepen across southeast CO into western KS. A sharp dryline is expected to extend southward across west-central KS into far western OK/TX. Meanwhile, a cold front will extend from eastern SD/central NE into northeast CO by afternoon, while a warm front extends west to east across southern MN/WI and into Lower MI. These boundaries will be focus for severe thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. ...Northeast CO into NE/SD/MN/IA... A volatile environment is expected to develop Sunday afternoon, particularly across parts of NE/SD/MN/IA. Initial thunderstorm development is expected across northeast CO into southwest NE within an upslope flow regime ahead of the approaching synoptic cold front. Low-level capping and weaker boundary layer moisture is expected across this area. However, even elevated convection atop the cooler/drier boundary layer will pose a risk for large to very large hail given very steep lapse rates, strong vertical shear and elongated/straight hodographs. With time, additional convection is expected to develop further east within the warm sector across parts of eastern NE and southeast SD near the triple point and on the nose of the dry slot as a subtle lead shortwave impulse overspreads the region. While some morning cloudiness and showers could be ongoing across parts of the area this activity is expected to quickly shift northeast and allow for clearing. As a result,stronger heating of the moistening airmass will result in a narrow corridor of strong destabilization (MLCAPE 2500-3500 J/kg). Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles, with effective shear greater than 40 kt across the region. Backed low-level winds within the warm sector, veering with height, will contribute to increasing low-level SRH and favorably curved low-level hodographs. While the corridor for discrete supercells will be narrow, partly due to capping and modest large-scale ascent and partly due to the advancing cold front resulting in upscale growth, the expectation is for a few supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes and large to very large hail across northeast NE/far southeast SD/southwest MN and northwest IA. With time, one or more linear/bowing segments is expected to develop near the east/southeast-advancing cold front and as the low-level jet increases during the evening. An attendant risk of severe wind gusts will accompany this activity. The severe risk will diminish with time and eastward extent during the nighttime hours as instability weakens and capping increases. ...KS/OK vicinity... A more conditional risk is expected across KS into the southern Plains vicinity. Capping and weak large-scale ascent will likely inhibit convection. Nevertheless, a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment will reside along the surface dryline from west-central KS into western OK and eastern parts of the TX Panhandle toward western north TX. Hot conditions behind the dryline and moderate low-level convergence, particularly across the northwest OK vicinity, may support sufficient mixing/deeper dryline circulations such that a few storms develop. If these storms develop, they will likely be higher based. Given very steep low to midlevel lapse rates, moderate instability, and supercell wind profiles, large to very large hail and strong/severe wind gusts will be possible. Any storms that develop may struggle to move off the dryline, and the corridor for severe potential will likely remain confined. ...Lower MI... Isolated thunderstorm are possible Sunday afternoon as a warm front lifts northward and a weak upper shortwave impulse overspreads the region. Weak to moderate destabilization is forecast as low-level moisture increases beneath modest midlevel lapse rates. While low-level winds will be light, vertically veering wind profiles and increasing southwesterly mid/upper level flow will support organized updrafts. Isolated gusty winds or small hail could occur with any surface-based storms that occur into the evening hours. ..Leitman.. 05/16/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail, severe/damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes should occur this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains into Iowa. ...Central High Plains into Mid MO Valley... Recent surface analysis placed a low over southwest KS, with a warm front extending through a low over far southeast NE to a third low over southern WI. The low over southwest KS is forecast to fill while another low develops back farther west across southeast CO today. As it does, low-level moisture advection will persist across the central Plains, while a deeper upper trough traverses the Intermountain West. Combination of low-level convergence east and north of the surface low and increasing large-scale ascent will favor thunderstorm development during the late afternoon/early evening across northeast CO. This initial activity is expected to be supercellular, with large to very large hail as the primary risk. This initial activity should be high-based, with strong downdrafts resulting in a quick transition to a linear mode. Even so, some tornado risk is still apparent, particularly with the southernmost supercells that persist through the early evening when a strengthening low-level jet will lengthen low-level hodographs considerably. Most guidance continues to suggest that an intense bowing cluster, with significant wind gusts over 75 mph possible, will develop and spread eastward along/near the warm front from along the southern NE/northern KS border vicinity through the evening. Given the organized nature of this line, it should persist throughout most of the night, and an eastward expansion has been made to the Enhanced Risk to account for increased probability of strong gusts into more of southeast NE. A separate area of intense thunderstorms is anticipated farther east this afternoon/evening along/near the warm front. Given the ongoing thunderstorms across northern MO, there is some question to where the front consolidates this afternoon. Consensus within the guidance places it from far southeast NE across southern IA, but there is some chance it ends up a bit farther south in far northern MO. Robust thunderstorm development is expected along this boundary this afternoon amid strong low-level moisture advection and heating, and persistent low-level convergence. Environmental conditions support supercells capable of all severe hazards, including large to very large hail (isolated 2"+ inches in diameter) and tornadoes, but a messy convective mode and related storm interference could disrupt updrafts and may limit discreteness. Tornado risk will be focused along/near the front where backed low-level easterly winds may locally enhance 0-1 km SRH. Some clustering is possible, with an attendant threat for more damaging gusts wherever this clustering occurs. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley... With the primary shortwave trough well west of the region, mesoscale features will dominate the severe potential across the region today. One such feature is the MCV currently moving through southeast MO. This feature is expected to result in a localized increase in mid-level flow along its eastern periphery as it progresses eastward/northeastward along the OH River vicinity. Filtered heating and/or outflow from the ongoing showers and thunderstorms could result in a baroclinic zone ahead of this vorticity maximum from north-central KY into far southern IN. Expectation is that ascent attendant to the MCS coupled with low-level convergence along this boundary will result in additional thunderstorm development this afternoon. The locally enhanced mid-level flow coupled with modest low-level southerly flow should result in moderate vertical shear, with effective bulk shear values from 30 to 40 kt. This is sufficient for updraft organization, but the mixed boundary layer will likely support strong downdrafts. The general expectation is for an early mostly multicell/isolated supercell mode to transition quickly to a more linear mode with one or more bowing line segments. Isolated hail is possible early in the convective cycle, with a trend towards more damaging gusts with time. Given the modest and veered low-level flow, the tornado potential will be low, but the presence of a boundary suggests that there remains a low-probability tornado risk. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated thunderstorms may initiate this afternoon along the surface dryline from southwest KS into the eastern OK/TX Panhandles and western OK. While deep-layer shear will be weaker with southward extent across the southern High Plains, a narrow zone of minimal MLCIN along/east of the dryline may support isolated convection capable of producing both locally severe hail and wind gusts. ..Mosier/Bunting.. 05/16/2026 Read more