SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 141630Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with hail and severe wind gusts are possible from
Kansas/Missouri southwest into west Texas, mainly late this
afternoon and evening.
...Central Plains including Kansas...
An upper trough over the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains will
glancingly influence the region later today, along with an embedded
disturbance or two emerging from the central Rockies early today.
Surface cyclogenesis will occur across Kansas, while a front spreads
east-southeastward across the central High Plains, and low-level
moisture steadily increases ahead of a dryline.
Initiation/sustenance of deep convection is mostly likely to
initially occur late this afternoon through around sunset across
west-central into southwest Kansas in vicinity of the surface triple
point, and to a lesser extent, along the southwestward-extending
dryline. Beneath a stout elevated mixed layer, moderate buoyancy
with 2000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected across central Kansas, which will
be coincident with a belt of 35-40 kt mid-level winds/effective
shear. Where storms do develop, forecast parameters will be quite
favorable for supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds
across much of central toward eastern Kansas. Other higher-based
severe storms are possible south-southwestward along the dryline.
...Southern High Plains including OK/TX Panhandles and West TX...
Widely scattered high-based storms should develop in vicinity of the
dryline late this afternoon/early evening. Somewhat higher
probabilities/storm coverage should exist across the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles and Texas South Plains. Various forecast soundings
regionally near the dryline reflect a hot and very deeply mixed
peak-heating boundary layer, to upwards of 4-4.5km AGL/500mb, with
residual CAPE and moderately strong westerlies atop the boundary
layer. Strong to potentially severe wind gusts will be possible
where storms develop in this hot/steep lapse rate environment, with
a diminishing storm intensity through the post-sunset evening hours
as the boundary layer cools.
..Guyer/Chalmers.. 05/14/2026
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 141630Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with hail and severe wind gusts are possible from
Kansas/Missouri southwest into west Texas, mainly late this
afternoon and evening.
...Central Plains including Kansas...
An upper trough over the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains will
glancingly influence the region later today, along with an embedded
disturbance or two emerging from the central Rockies early today.
Surface cyclogenesis will occur across Kansas, while a front spreads
east-southeastward across the central High Plains, and low-level
moisture steadily increases ahead of a dryline.
Initiation/sustenance of deep convection is mostly likely to
initially occur late this afternoon through around sunset across
west-central into southwest Kansas in vicinity of the surface triple
point, and to a lesser extent, along the southwestward-extending
dryline. Beneath a stout elevated mixed layer, moderate buoyancy
with 2000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected across central Kansas, which will
be coincident with a belt of 35-40 kt mid-level winds/effective
shear. Where storms do develop, forecast parameters will be quite
favorable for supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds
across much of central toward eastern Kansas. Other higher-based
severe storms are possible south-southwestward along the dryline.
...Southern High Plains including OK/TX Panhandles and West TX...
Widely scattered high-based storms should develop in vicinity of the
dryline late this afternoon/early evening. Somewhat higher
probabilities/storm coverage should exist across the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles and Texas South Plains. Various forecast soundings
regionally near the dryline reflect a hot and very deeply mixed
peak-heating boundary layer, to upwards of 4-4.5km AGL/500mb, with
residual CAPE and moderately strong westerlies atop the boundary
layer. Strong to potentially severe wind gusts will be possible
where storms develop in this hot/steep lapse rate environment, with
a diminishing storm intensity through the post-sunset evening hours
as the boundary layer cools.
..Guyer/Chalmers.. 05/14/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 141300Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with hail and severe wind gusts are possible from
Kansas/Missouri into west Texas.
...KS...
An upper ridge is centered over the central/southern Plains this
morning, but will break down through the forecast period as a series
of weak shortwave troughs emanate from the Rockies across the
central Plains. Meanwhile, strong southerly low-level winds will
develop across TX/OK/KS, aiding in northward return of moisture and
considerable destabilization. The western periphery of the
returning moisture will be noted by a diffuse dryline from western
KS into western OK, where temperatures will climb into the mid/upper
90s today.
By late afternoon, forecast parameters will be quite favorable for
supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds across much of
central KS. However, weak large scale forcing and a formidable cap
to the east of the dryline significantly limits the confidence in
thunderstorm development/maintenance. Any storm that forms will
pose a severe risk, but coverage may be very isolated. Have shrunk
the risk areas, but will maintain the ongoing SLGT for now.
...West TX/OK...
The aforementioned dryline will extend southward across western OK
into west TX. Hot and dry conditions will develop to the west of
the dryline, where model consensus suggesting scattered high-based
thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon. Forecast soundings
show near dry-adiabatic low and mid level lapse rates, and
sufficient CAPE for a risk of dry microbursts or occasional
multicell clusters capable of damaging winds. This activity is
likely to struggle as it spreads east of the dryline this evening
due to a strong capping inversion.
..Hart/Wendt.. 05/14/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts
will be possible Friday afternoon and evening in parts of the
central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley.
...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
West to west-southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place on
Friday across the central U.S, as a subtle shortwave trough moves
into the central Plains. Ahead of this feature, moisture advection
will raise surface dewpoints into the mid to upper 60s F from the
eastern part of the central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri
Valley. A surface low will deepen over far western Oklahoma, with an
inverted trough extending northward into central Kansas and
northeastward into southeast Nebraska. Isolated convective
initiation is expected near and to the east of the surface trough
during the late afternoon. Convective coverage should gradually
increase in the evening as low-level warm advection strengthens.
By late afternoon, model forecast show a pocket of moderate to
strong instability over northeast Kansas. Forecast soundings at 00Z
in this area have MLCAPE in the 3500 to 4000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km
shear near 35 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in
the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for
supercells with large hail, and hailstones greater than 2 inches in
diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. Supercells
will also be capable of severe wind gusts. During the late evening
and overnight, a severe threat may continue over parts of the
central Plains, as the low-level jet strengthens. Isolated severe
storms will be possible in northwestern Kansas late in the period,
as a secondary shortwave approaches.
Further south into parts of western Oklahoma, a capping inversion is
forecast to be in place during the late afternoon and early evening.
However, lapse rates are forecast to be very steep with some models
showing 700-500 mb lapse rates near 9 C/km. In addition, moderate
deep-layer shear is forecast. If a cell can initiate in spite of the
cap, then supercells with large hail would be possible.
...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley...
Low-level moisture will gradually increase across the mid to upper
Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon and evening. Although
instability is forecast to remain weak, isolated thunderstorms may
initiate as a low-level jet moves into the region from the
southwest. By mid to late evening, MUCAPE is forecast to increase
into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg with effective shear near 40 knots over
much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. For this reason,
isolated severe storms will be possible, with strong wind gusts and
hail as the primary threats.
..Broyles.. 05/14/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK AND UPPER
ROLLING PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
Broadly zonal flow aloft with an embedded shortwave will traverse
the Upper Midwest on Friday. At the surface, a continued post
frontal environment beneath a departing deep surface low in Ontario
will promote strong westerly winds within a dry airmass across the
northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A mid-level impulse and emerging
lee surface low across the southern Plains will further enhance
downslope drying and breezy surface winds, supporting fire weather
concerns across southeastern NM into the TX Panhandle.
...Northern Plains...
Deep westerly flow aloft and tightening surface pressure gradients
beneath a departing Canadian surface low will encourage widespread
dry and breezy conditions. Westerly winds of up to 20 mph and RH
values of 25-30% support fire weather concerns across the region.
Adjustments to the Elevated risk may be needed in future outlooks as
precipitation continues into the early morning hours of Day
1/Thursday across portions of eastern MT.
...Southern Plains...
South of a developing lee surface low over western OK, enhanced
downslope winds of 15-20 mph will align with RH reductions to less
than 15% across southeastern NM into the southern TX Panhandle.
Elevated highlights have been introduced where these conditions
overlap dry and receptive fuels. Furthermore, a narrow region of
likely 20-25 mph winds and 10-15% RH (single digits locally) has
prompted the introduction of Critical highlights across the Caprock
and upper Rolling Plains.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/14/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough and associated stronger mid-level westerly
flow will push into the northern Plains while upper ridging slides
over the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a dry cold front extending
south of a central Canadian surface low will permit a breezy post
frontal environment, bringing widespread fire weather concerns to
the northern/central Plains. Farther south, tightening surface
pressure gradients east of the CO/NM higher terrain will promote
enhanced downslope flow and deep layer mixing. Increasing mid-level
moisture and subtle forcing associating with an approaching short
wave impulse could aid in high-based thunderstorm development across
portions of the OK/TX Panhandles.
...Northern Plains...
Strong post frontal westerly winds of 15-25 mph and RH of 20-30%
amid dry fuels will support an Elevated fire weather threat across
the Dakotas. Farther west, more pronounced deep-layer westerly flow
will yield sustained west winds of 30-45 mph across central and
eastern MT during peak afternoon heating. Limited RH reductions,
light precipitation over the last 24 hours, and green up across
southern MT should mitigate an otherwise critical fire weather
environment. Ahead of an eastward progressing cold front, strong
southerly winds of 20-25 mph (gusts up to 40 mph) will persist
through the afternoon hours across northwestern IA into western MN.
Despite modest RH values of 25-35%, a mixed fuelscape of partial
green up and sporadic dry fuels combined with very strong winds
could support fire spread. Thus, Elevated highlights have been
expanded to encompass this threat.
...Southwest and Southern High Plains...
Westerly downslope flow of 15-20 mph amid RH of 15-20% will support
Elevated fire weather concerns from far southeastern AZ into much of
southeastern NM and the southern Plains where delayed green up has
allowed fuels to remain receptive. Ascent associated with the
arrival of the mid-level perturbation alongside afternoon heating
and resultant instability should support showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the OK/TX Panhandles and adjacent CO/KS areas
this afternoon. Forecast soundings depict PWATs of 0.6-0.8" with a
prominent dry sub-cloud layer up to 3 km. This should limit
appreciable precipitation at the surface, allowing the threat of dry
thunderstorms to evolve. Gusty outflow winds and some lightning
ignitions are possible in existing dry fuels where an IsoDryT risk
has been maintained.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/14/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with hail and severe wind gusts are expected from
Kansas into western Texas, with isolated overnight activity into
parts of the lower Missouri/Mid Mississippi Valley.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will slowly move across the Northeast and Mid
Atlantic today, with a surface high moving into the eastern CONUS
with offshore flow across the East Coast. Behind this system,
shortwave ridging aloft will move toward the MS Valley during the
day as a progressive shortwave trough affects the central and
northern Plains. This wave will bring rapid cooling aloft across the
Dakotas and into the upper MS Valley during the day, with subtle
height falls extending into the Central Plains.
While the primary surface low will be over Canada, a secondary low
is expected to form over western KS by late afternoon, with the
surface trough extending fully from the TX Panhandle northward into
Manitoba. Southerly winds across the Plains will aid the development
of a narrow moist axis from eastern TX into eastern KS and NE during
the day, with elevated moisture/warmth developing toward the mid MS
Valley overnight with a 40-50 kt low-level jet.
...KS...
An isolated supercell or two may develop during the late afternoon
just downstream of the low-level lapse rate plume and near the
narrow axis of 60s dewpoints near I-35. Surface convergence will not
be particularly strong, but forecast soundings indicate a narrow
zone of uncapped and unstable air mass. Steep lapse rates aloft,
veering winds with height, and 500 mb winds around 30 kt will
conditionally favor slow-moving supercells producing large hail. If
moisture quality verifies near the upper end of the guidance, hail
over 2.00" diameter may occur.
...Southern High Plains...
Strong heating will lead to deep inverted-v profiles across western
TX including the Panhandles. Relatively cool temperature aloft as
well as convergence within the surface trough will favor scattered
high based thunderstorms, with threat of dry microbursts over a
relatively large zone from the South Plains into southwest KS.
...Lower MS/Mid MS Valleys...
During the evening and overnight, lift associated with a 50+ kt
southwesterly low-level jet will bring elevated instability eastward
out of KS and into MO, southern IA an western IL as minimal height
falls occur. Forecast soundings indicate substantial elevated MUCAPE
with steep mid/upper lapse rates, thought shear in the cloud-bearing
layer will be marginal. This should support elevated storms over
much of northern MO, southern IA and western IL overnight with
activity spreading southeast. Isolated strong gusts cannot be ruled
out given the generally dry sub-cloud layer as storms amass.
..Jewell.. 05/14/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026
Valid 121700Z - 131200Z
No changes to the outlook were necessary. Dry, post-frontal flow is
still expected to bring an elevated fire weather concern to parts of
the northern and central Plains. North to northwest winds of 20-30
mph with higher gusts near 45 mph are occurring across eastern
ND/SD. The limited RH reductions this afternoon of 25-30% (locally
20%) amid a mixed fuelscape as green up expands across the Plains
should mitigate the impact of otherwise robust north/northwest winds
today. Please see previous forecast discussion for details.
..Williams.. 05/12/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper level low will approach the northwestern U.S. coastline as
troughing and an associated mid-level low traverse the Upper Midwest
and Great Lakes region. Between surface high pressure centered over
southern MT and an eastward propagating surface low towards the
Great Lakes, tightened pressure gradients will encourage strong
deep-layer northwesterly flow to overspread a well-mixed
post-frontal airmass across the mid-upper Missouri Valley.
While RH reductions will be modest in the post-frontal airmass
(around 20-30 percent), 15-25 mph sustained northwesterly winds
(localized gusts up to 35 mph) amid very dry fuels will support
Elevated fire-weather conditions. A swath of stronger sustained
northwest winds between 20-30 mph (localized gusts up to 45 mph)
will impact the eastern Dakotas into the mid-upper Missouri Valley.
However, this corridor of stronger winds will be displaced to the
east of a warmer, drier boundary layer and atop fuels recently
transitioning to green up. While RH values are expected to remain
above 25 percent within this region, locally critical fire weather
conditions may emerge in areas of stronger winds and lower RH.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026
Valid 121300Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
FLORIDA...AND FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO KANSAS....
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms will be possible at least on an isolated basis across
parts of the Florida Peninsula today, and potentially from southeast
Kansas into parts of the Great Lakes late this afternoon and early
evening.
...KS to WI...
A progressive shortwave trough is evident on morning water vapor
imagery over MN. This feature will track across the Great Lakes
region through the forecast period, with the associated surface cold
front sagging into parts of the upper MS Valley. The air mass ahead
of the front from WI into IL/MO/KS is initially quite dry with
dewpoints only in the 30s/40s. However, strong southwesterly
low-level winds will lead to slow moistening/destabilization of the
pre-frontal air mass with a narrow corridor of MUCAPE around 500
J/kg expected by late afternoon. Thunderstorm coverage will likely
be sparse and high-based. However, a few strong/severe storms may
form - capable of hail and gusty winds into early evening.
...FL...
A moist and moderately unstable air mass remains in place over the
FL Peninsula today. A well-defined shortwave trough over southern
AL will track eastward today, resulting in sufficient large scale
forcing for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low-level winds are
veered, suggesting the most intense cells will be in vicinity of the
east-coast sea-breeze. A few organized multicell or supercell
storms are possible, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail.
..Hart/Wendt.. 05/12/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO FAR
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...
...Synopsis...
An upper level low will move onshore the Pacific Northwest and
transform into an open trough as it moves farther inland. Wedged
between western U.S. troughing and an amplifying longwave trough
over the eastern U.S., upper ridging will slide over the Rocky
Mountain region. Associated with the substantial mid-upper level
pattern, a rapidly evolving lee-side low in the southern Canadian
Prairies and deepening lee surface troughing over the Great Basin
and High Plains will present a multifaceted fire weather setup
across portions of the Intermountain West.
...Northern Montana...
In the southern Canadian Prairies, a rapidly evolving lee low will
promote a dry return flow pattern across the northern High Plains. A
Critical fire weather risk was introduced for northeastern MT and
far northwestern ND where sustained southeasterly winds of 20-25 mph
and 15-20 percent RH will overlap an exceptionally dry fuelscape.
Widespread south-southeasterly winds of 15-20 mph amid 20-25 percent
RH will promote elevated fire weather concerns across much of
central-eastern MT. Fast moving, high based showers and
thunderstorms with limited precipitation are expected across central
and northern MT as broader ascent materializes ahead of an incoming
trough. Resultant instability and a dry boundary layer could
encourage a few lightning ignitions where receptive fuels exist. An
IsoDryT area was introduced to account for this threat.
...Portions of the Southwest into the Snake River Plain and Colorado
River Basin...
As the sharp upper trough and associated mid-level jet shifts over
ID into western MT, deepening surface troughing across the northern
Great Basin and stronger southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will
bring fire weather concerns to much of the Intermountain West.
Southwest winds of 15-25 mph amid very low RH and drying fuels under
successive days of abnormally high temperatures will support an
Elevated fire weather threat across the region. Daytime instability
and increasing mid-level moisture will promote high based convection
along the higher terrain of the Four Corners through central WY into
the Wyoming Basin. Sporadic lightning ignitions are possible where
drier fuels exist, promoting an IsoDryT area.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper level low will approach the northwestern U.S. coastline as
troughing and an associated mid-level low traverse the Upper Midwest
and Great Lakes region. Between surface high pressure centered over
southern MT and an eastward propagating surface low towards the
Great Lakes, tightened pressure gradients will encourage strong
deep-layer northwesterly flow to overspread a well-mixed
post-frontal airmass across the mid-upper Missouri Valley.
While RH reductions will be modest in the post-frontal airmass
(around 20-30 percent), 15-25 mph sustained northwesterly winds
(localized gusts up to 35 mph) amid very dry fuels will support
Elevated fire-weather conditions. A swath of stronger sustained
northwest winds between 20-30 mph (localized gusts up to 45 mph)
will impact the eastern Dakotas into the mid-upper Missouri Valley.
However, this corridor of stronger winds will be displaced to the
east of a warmer, drier boundary layer and atop fuels recently
transitioning to green up. While RH values are expected to remain
above 25 percent within this region, locally critical fire weather
conditions may emerge in areas of stronger winds and lower RH.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT
BASIN...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts are expected on
Wednesday across parts of the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians,
northern Rockies and Great Basin. Hail will also be possible in
parts of western Montana.
...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians...
An upper-level trough will move east-southeastward across the Great
Lakes on Wednesday, as an associated mid-level jet streak translates
southeastward into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a low will move
eastward across southwestern Ontario as a cold front advances
east-southeastward into the central Appalachians. Ahead of the
front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s F will contribute
to weak instability as surface temperatures warm during the day.
Increasing low-level convergence near the front will lead to
scattered thunderstorm development, with additional storms forming
due to topographic forcing in the central Appalachians. Ahead of the
front, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to become steep in
the afternoon peaking in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range, which should
support a threat for isolated severe wind gusts.
...Northern Rockies/Great Basin...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move through the northwestern
U.S. on Wednesday as a 60 to 80 knot jet streak passes eastward into
the northern Rockies. At the surface, a trough will develop from
western Montana southward into Idaho and Utah, ahead of a cold front
passing through the Pacific Northwest. Near the surface trough, an
axis of instability will be in place by afternoon as surface
temperatures warm into the 80s F. In response, thunderstorms will
form in the higher terrain from western Montana southward into the
deserts of eastern Idaho and northern Utah. Near the instability
axis, low to mid-level lapse rates will be very steep likely
exceeding 9 C/km. This will support a threat for isolated severe
wind gusts. Hail could also occur in the northern Rockies.
..Broyles.. 05/12/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms will be possible at least on an isolated basis across
parts of the Florida Peninsula today, and potentially parts of the
Great Lakes to Lower Missouri Valley and south-central Plains late
this afternoon and early evening.
...Florida Peninsula...
A front will settle southward today in advance of a low-latitude
shortwave trough crossing the northeast Gulf. A moist and
potentially unstable environment will exist during the afternoon,
especially across the central Peninsula where MLCAPE could exceed
1500 J/kg, although early day clouds and convection near/south of
the front leads to some uncertainty regarding destabilization
details. Regardless, storms should steadily increase in coverage and
intensity through late morning into the afternoon, initially across
the north-central Peninsula, maximizing toward the east coast,
although additional storms may move inland from the Gulf.
Strengthening mid/high-level winds will support upwards of 30-40 kt
effective shear and fairly long/semi-straight hodographs, which
could yield some transient supercell structures pending sufficient
destabilization. Damaging winds and hail will be possible at least
on an isolated basis, and a tornado could occur as well,
particularly near the effective front. A greater confidence in
destabilization and the possibility of more sustained
storms/supercells could warrant a Slight Risk upgrade.
...Wisconsin/Lake Michigan to south-central Plains...
A shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will dig southeastward
and amplify toward the Upper Great Lakes through this evening, with
a cold front moving southeastward across these regions. Low-level
moisture will be limited near/ahead of the front, but advection may
be sufficient to counteract mixing to allow surface dewpoints to
reach the 50s F by late afternoon/early evening.
In tandem with the strongest forcing for ascent, and in vicinity of
the surface low/front, isolated to widely scattered development is
initially expected, and most probable, late in the afternoon/early
evening across eastern Wisconsin, with additional storms possible
farther southwest near the front across Illinois/Missouri and
potentially into southeast Kansas/northeast Oklahoma. Where storms
develop/sustain, steep lapse rates and strong west-northwesterly
flow aloft could yield some severe storms capable of hail/damaging
wind.
...Western Oregon/southern Washington...
A few stronger storms with gusty winds and/or sub-severe hail could
develop late in the afternoon and evening regionally in advance an
upper-level trough approaching the coastal Pacific Northwest.
Strengthening deep-layer winds and steepening lapse rates could
plausibly yield some stronger storms, although the potential for
sustained/organized severe storms is currently expected to remain
low.
..Guyer/Weinman.. 05/12/2026
Read more
MD 0707 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0707
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026
Areas affected...north-central and northeast North Dakota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 112342Z - 120115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...The potential for locally strong wind gusts will exist
with any deeper convective elements through about 01z. A watch is
not anticipated.
DISCUSSION...A small thunderstorm has recently developed over
McHenry into Pierce Counties along a surface trough, where a narrow
axis of locally higher moisture content exists. The moisture
combined with a plume of very steep, low/mid-level lapse rates is
resulting in estimated MUCAPE of 250-500 J/kg. Forecast soundings
suggest that the ambient environment features a deeply mixed
boundary layer extending upwards of 3 km, where westerly winds of
30-40 kt exist. As such, there appears to be some potential for
locally strong wind gusts for the next couple or hours with any
deeper convective elements before the boundary layer begins to cool
and stabilize.
..Mead/Gleason.. 05/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 48170095 47770032 47699932 47889846 48419792 49009820
49239878 49180009 49040081 48560101 48170095
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0505 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 191200Z
...Synopsis...
A potent mid-level trough will move into the northwestern U.S. on
Day 3/Wednesday while an amplifying upper trough and corresponding
surface low move into the Northeast. A deep lee surface trough
evolves across the northern and central High Plains in response to a
mid-level wave ejecting into the northern Plains on Wednesday,
bringing enhanced downslope westerly flow to the central and
southern High Plains on Day 4/Thursday. Fire weather concerns
continue across portions of the Northern Plains Day 5/Friday as dry,
northwest flow in the wake of a cold front impacts the region. The
active wave pattern across the northern CONUS with deeper boundary
layer moisture in place could support more widespread and much
needed rainfall across the Upper Midwest beginning Day 5/Friday and
over the weekend.
...Day 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday...
...Eastern Great Basin into Upper/Lower Colorado River Basin...
A robust mid-level wave will push through the Pacific Northwest Day
3/Wednesday. Stronger southwest flow aloft ahead of the trough and
resultant deepening surface troughing across the northern Great
Basin is expected to bring fire weather concerns to considerable
portions of the Intermountain West. Southwest winds of 15-25 mph
amid low RH and drying fuels under successive days of abnormally
high temperatures should promote a fairly broad fire weather threat
across the eastern Great Basin, northern AZ and CO Plateau.
Increasing mid-level Pacific moisture across the Intermountain West,
arrival of the upper trough into the western U.S. and daytime
instability should allow for high-based convection along higher
terrain of the Upper CO River Basin, Four Corners and into western
NM where more receptive fuels reside. Both critical probability
areas for impactful dry and breezy conditions and dry thunderstorms
were expanded across this region.
...Upper Snake River Plain and Southwest Montana...
Southwest winds of 20-25 mph across eastern ID, with terrain
enhanced winds closer 30-45 mph (with higher gusts) in southwest MT
are expected Day 3/Wednesday as the sharp upper trough and
associated mid-level jet shifts overhead. Dry boundary layer
conditions amid a drying fuelscape combined with the stronger
southwest flow will enhance fire weather concerns across the Upper
Snake River Plain and southwest MT, where 40% critical probabilities
have been introduced.
...Northern Montana...
Fuels remain quite receptive across northern MT where delayed green
up has been noted. A rapidly evolving lee low in the southern
Canadian Prairies will promote a dry return flow pattern across the
northern High Plains where 40% critical probabilities were
maintained. Fast moving, high based showers and thunderstorms are
expected across central and northern MT Wednesday afternoon as broad
ascent materializes ahead of the pronounced short wave trough across
the Pacific Northwest. Limited precipitation with fast moving
thunderstorms could bring a few ignitions to northern MT where fuels
are more receptive, where a 10% dry thunderstorm probability area
was warranted. Strong westerly winds behind a cold front could
impact holdover ignitions on Day 4/Thursday where 40% critical
probabilities were introduced across southeastern MT into portions
of western ND/SD.
...Day 5/Friday - Northern Plains...
Fire weather concerns may linger across portions of the Northern
Plains on Day 5/Friday with dry, post-frontal west/northwest flow in
place, but forecast uncertainty remains precluding introduction of
critical probabilities at this time.
..Williams.. 05/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026
Valid 112000Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST...AND
THE CAROLINA COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are
possible this afternoon along the Carolina and Florida Atlantic
coasts as well as portions of the lower Mississippi Valley.
...20z Update...
The previous outlook largely remains on track with only minor
adjustments made. Risk probabilities were removed across eastern GA
where latest satellite imagery shows limited vertical development
within a broad cumulus field, likely owing to poor ascent given very
weak low-level convergence along a diffuse frontal zone. Latest
HRRR/RRFS guidance depicts negligible convective signals across this
region through tonight, suggesting the potential for severe
thunderstorms is low. Severe wind probabilities were similarly
trimmed across portions of southern LA where cold outflow associated
with a residual MCV over the northern Gulf is spreading northward.
Ahead of this boundary, temperatures warming into the low 80s within
a moist air mass may still support convection sufficiently deep for
a localized downburst concern (see MCD #706). Elsewhere, the
previous forecast (below) remains on track.
..Moore.. 05/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper pattern across the CONUS this morning consists of western
ridging and eastern troughing. A pair of shortwave troughs are
embedded within the parent trough, one moving through the middle OH
Valley and the other farther south across TX. A convectively
generated vorticity maximum moving across the western Gulf precedes
the TX shortwave. Farther west, a shortwave trough is moving through
the northern periphery of the upper ridging over northern MT and
adjacent southern Saskatchewan.
Recent surface analysis places a low over the eastern NC/SC border
vicinity, with a cold front extending southwestward through the
Southeast and southern AL through the far western Gulf into Deep
South TX. Another low exists farther northwest over southern
Saskatchewan, with a cold front extending south-southwestward from
this low across eastern into south-central MT.
...Eastern SC/Far Southern NC...
Regional radar imagery shows isolated thunderstorms currently
ongoing near the surface low over the eastern NC/SC border vicinity.
A modest increase in buoyancy is anticipated ahead of these storms
over the next few hours. This buoyancy coupled with strong shear
could result in a few bowing segments capable of damaging gusts.
Additional isolated thunderstorm development is anticipated late
this afternoon as the weak cold front moves eastward across SC.
Moderate buoyancy and shear will support the potential for a few
more robust/organized updrafts capable of isolated hail and/or
damaging gusts.
...Eastern FL...
Warm/moist conditions are expected today over the FL Peninsula, with
temperatures over the interior warming into the 90s. Deep westerly
flow will focus convergence along the east-coast sea-breeze, leading
to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Sufficient deep-layer vertical
shear may result in isolated strong-severe storms producing
gusty/damaging winds and hail.
...Northern/eastern ND into eastern SD...
Despite limited low-level moisture, modest buoyancy may develop late
this afternoon/early this evening amid cooling mid-level
temperatures and increasing mid-level moisture. This buoyancy will
develop atop a deeply mixed boundary layer, supporting the potential
for strong gusts if any updrafts can deepen/mature. Given the weak
and elevated nature of the buoyancy, developing a mature updraft
capable of lightning will be difficult and the current expectation
is for most of this activity to be shallow and non-lightning
producing. That being said, gusty surface winds are possible with
any convection does develop atop the deeply mixed boundary layer.
...Coastal LA/MS/AL...
The convectively generated shortwave trough over the western Gulf
mentioned in the synopsis (and associated surface low) are expected
to progress eastward throughout the day, while the stronger
shortwave trough back across TX also progress east-southeastward.
Easterly/southeasterly low-level flow will be maintained north of
the Gulf low, increasing low-level convergence along the slow-moving
frontal zone. This convergence will be augmented by ascent attendant
to the TX shortwave, with numerous showers and thunderstorms likely.
Poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy, although moderate deep-layer
shear could support a few deeper, more organized updrafts. Primary
risk over this area is heavy rain (as noted in the WPC Day 1
Excessive Rainfall Outlook), but a few water-loaded downbursts
capable of wind damage are possible as well.
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