Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Longwave upper troughing will remain positioned across the Intermountain West today. While the strongest mid-level flow will transition northeastward in tandem a northeastward-ejecting mid-level shortwave, a second mid-level shortwave rotating southeastward across California and the western Great Basin will help maintain enhanced mid-level flow across much of the Great Basin and Southwest. Combined with a persistent dry air mass and lingering enhanced mid-level flow, this will continue to support expansive fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin and Southwest today. ...Southwest/Four Corners region... The aforementioned enhanced mid-level flow continuing to linger across portions of the Southwest and Four Corners region will support a corridor of sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph this afternoon. With RH values forecast in the 10-15% range and several days of antecedent dry/windy conditions exacerbating fuel dryness/receptiveness (ERCs in the 80th to 95th percentiles or greater), this will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns across much of Arizona, southeastern Utah, western/central Colorado, western/central New Mexico, and southern Wyoming. Deep boundary layer mixing will also support occasional wind gusts to 30-35 mph across much of this region. The best chance for locally critical conditions to emerge will extend from central Colorado southward into north-central New Mexico, where ERCs are noted to range from the 90th to 99th percentiles. Modestly stronger mid-level flow is forecast to linger later into the afternoon across this region, which should promote marginally stronger sustained surface winds and occasional wind gusts of 30-40 mph. An upgrade to Critical was considered for this area, but uncertainty remains regarding a longer duration and broader overlap of 20+ mph sustained winds and RH less than 15%. A targeted upgrade could be needed in the D1 update should guidance/observations indicate the development of critical wind/RH conditions across a more widespread area within this region. ..Chalmers.. 06/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1372 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 412... FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1372 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Areas affected...parts of northwestern Nebraska into central South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 412... Valid 290443Z - 290645Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 412 continues. SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development probably will continue to grow upscale and begin to become better organized with increasing potential to produce strong to severe wind gusts, in addition to large hail, through 1-3 AM CDT. DISCUSSION...Strongest forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection is still developing across the Nebraska Panhandle into areas of South Dakota to the southeast of the Black Hills. However, this is forecast to begin shifting north-northeastward, across and north of the western Nebraska and South Dakota state border area through 06-08Z. As it does, ongoing convective development is likely to continue to to increase and organize, particularly as convective outflow consolidates and propagates northeastward, within 30-40 southerly deep-layer mean flow. As it does, strengthening north-northeasterly updraft inflow emanating from a moist unstable boundary-layer increasingly characterized by lower 70s F dew points may begin to support notable further intensification with increasing potential for strong to severe wind gusts, in addition to large hail. ..Kerr.. 06/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 43610236 44430171 44000003 42600137 42120256 42390353 43610236 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest, and across parts of the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will be present in the Canadian Prairies with a belt of stronger mid-level flow extending into the Upper Midwest. The amplified upper ridge in the Midwest/East will be somewhat suppressed as a result. A stalled surface boundary will be present from the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest. Moderate to strong mid-level northwesterlies will be present across the Northeast with possible MCVs/shortwaves moving into the region. ...Mid-Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest... Convection that occurs in Minnesota overnight Monday into early Tuesday is expected to weaken as it moves eastward. Given the weakening and veering low-level jet, it does not appear this activity will have much of an impact on the environment in northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. A stalled surface boundary will be located from northern Nebraska into Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Very rich moisture (mid/upper 70s F dewpoints) will exist in the warm sector. With mid-level lapse rates of 7.5-8 C/km, strong to extreme buoyancy will develop by the afternoon. With the main upper low in the Canadian Prairie, large-scale ascent will be subtle/nebulous. That said, convective temperatures should be reached at least locally with additional lift expected from lake breeze boundaries. Most models, including both global/regional models and CAMs, suggest development is probable from parts of northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula. Effective shear of 40-50 kt will promote some storm organization. However, magnitude of buoyancy along with modest low-level flow will likely result in storms becoming outflow dominant. A targeted Slight Risk has been added for this potential. Damaging winds are the most likely hazard with this activity, but isolated large hail could also occur. Farther southwest into southern Minnesota/Iowa/Nebraska/South Dakota, storm coverage is much less certain. There could be an increase in thunderstorm activity as the low-level jet increases during the evening. Should this occur, damaging winds and perhaps isolated large hail would be possible. Shear will be weaker in these areas and the severe threat will likely remain marginal/isolated. ...Northeast... Questions remain as to the timing of MCV/convection moving out of Canada. Given the potential for early precipitation to occur and limit surface-based instability, the Marginal Risk has been maintained for this outlook. Nevertheless, the environment will be favorable for strong to severe storms. Effective shear is expected to be around 50 kt. Damaging winds and large hail are likely the main risks; however, if storm mode is more cellular, a greater tornado risk could also be present. Trends in guidance will need to be monitored. ...Colorado/Kansas/southwest Nebraska... A modest lee trough will promote moisture advection into the central High Plains. A subtle shortwave trough moving through the central Rockies may aid in storm development. The timing of storm development is not certain, but most guidance would suggest this occurs at or after 00Z. Steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear will promote organized storms that will be capable of large hail (isolated to around 2 in.) and severe winds. Low-level shear will be enhanced near the surface trough/low, but concerns over low-level thermodynamics limit confidence in a tornado threat. ..Wendt.. 06/29/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest, and across parts of the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will be present in the Canadian Prairies with a belt of stronger mid-level flow extending into the Upper Midwest. The amplified upper ridge in the Midwest/East will be somewhat suppressed as a result. A stalled surface boundary will be present from the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest. Moderate to strong mid-level northwesterlies will be present across the Northeast with possible MCVs/shortwaves moving into the region. ...Mid-Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest... Convection that occurs in Minnesota overnight Monday into early Tuesday is expected to weaken as it moves eastward. Given the weakening and veering low-level jet, it does not appear this activity will have much of an impact on the environment in northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. A stalled surface boundary will be located from northern Nebraska into Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Very rich moisture (mid/upper 70s F dewpoints) will exist in the warm sector. With mid-level lapse rates of 7.5-8 C/km, strong to extreme buoyancy will develop by the afternoon. With the main upper low in the Canadian Prairie, large-scale ascent will be subtle/nebulous. That said, convective temperatures should be reached at least locally with additional lift expected from lake breeze boundaries. Most models, including both global/regional models and CAMs, suggest development is probable from parts of northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula. Effective shear of 40-50 kt will promote some storm organization. However, magnitude of buoyancy along with modest low-level flow will likely result in storms becoming outflow dominant. A targeted Slight Risk has been added for this potential. Damaging winds are the most likely hazard with this activity, but isolated large hail could also occur. Farther southwest into southern Minnesota/Iowa/Nebraska/South Dakota, storm coverage is much less certain. There could be an increase in thunderstorm activity as the low-level jet increases during the evening. Should this occur, damaging winds and perhaps isolated large hail would be possible. Shear will be weaker in these areas and the severe threat will likely remain marginal/isolated. ...Northeast... Questions remain as to the timing of MCV/convection moving out of Canada. Given the potential for early precipitation to occur and limit surface-based instability, the Marginal Risk has been maintained for this outlook. Nevertheless, the environment will be favorable for strong to severe storms. Effective shear is expected to be around 50 kt. Damaging winds and large hail are likely the main risks; however, if storm mode is more cellular, a greater tornado risk could also be present. Trends in guidance will need to be monitored. ...Colorado/Kansas/southwest Nebraska... A modest lee trough will promote moisture advection into the central High Plains. A subtle shortwave trough moving through the central Rockies may aid in storm development. The timing of storm development is not certain, but most guidance would suggest this occurs at or after 00Z. Steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear will promote organized storms that will be capable of large hail (isolated to around 2 in.) and severe winds. Low-level shear will be enhanced near the surface trough/low, but concerns over low-level thermodynamics limit confidence in a tornado threat. ..Wendt.. 06/29/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest, and across parts of the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will be present in the Canadian Prairies with a belt of stronger mid-level flow extending into the Upper Midwest. The amplified upper ridge in the Midwest/East will be somewhat suppressed as a result. A stalled surface boundary will be present from the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest. Moderate to strong mid-level northwesterlies will be present across the Northeast with possible MCVs/shortwaves moving into the region. ...Mid-Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest... Convection that occurs in Minnesota overnight Monday into early Tuesday is expected to weaken as it moves eastward. Given the weakening and veering low-level jet, it does not appear this activity will have much of an impact on the environment in northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. A stalled surface boundary will be located from northern Nebraska into Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Very rich moisture (mid/upper 70s F dewpoints) will exist in the warm sector. With mid-level lapse rates of 7.5-8 C/km, strong to extreme buoyancy will develop by the afternoon. With the main upper low in the Canadian Prairie, large-scale ascent will be subtle/nebulous. That said, convective temperatures should be reached at least locally with additional lift expected from lake breeze boundaries. Most models, including both global/regional models and CAMs, suggest development is probable from parts of northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula. Effective shear of 40-50 kt will promote some storm organization. However, magnitude of buoyancy along with modest low-level flow will likely result in storms becoming outflow dominant. A targeted Slight Risk has been added for this potential. Damaging winds are the most likely hazard with this activity, but isolated large hail could also occur. Farther southwest into southern Minnesota/Iowa/Nebraska/South Dakota, storm coverage is much less certain. There could be an increase in thunderstorm activity as the low-level jet increases during the evening. Should this occur, damaging winds and perhaps isolated large hail would be possible. Shear will be weaker in these areas and the severe threat will likely remain marginal/isolated. ...Northeast... Questions remain as to the timing of MCV/convection moving out of Canada. Given the potential for early precipitation to occur and limit surface-based instability, the Marginal Risk has been maintained for this outlook. Nevertheless, the environment will be favorable for strong to severe storms. Effective shear is expected to be around 50 kt. Damaging winds and large hail are likely the main risks; however, if storm mode is more cellular, a greater tornado risk could also be present. Trends in guidance will need to be monitored. ...Colorado/Kansas/southwest Nebraska... A modest lee trough will promote moisture advection into the central High Plains. A subtle shortwave trough moving through the central Rockies may aid in storm development. The timing of storm development is not certain, but most guidance would suggest this occurs at or after 00Z. Steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear will promote organized storms that will be capable of large hail (isolated to around 2 in.) and severe winds. Low-level shear will be enhanced near the surface trough/low, but concerns over low-level thermodynamics limit confidence in a tornado threat. ..Wendt.. 06/29/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest, and across parts of the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will be present in the Canadian Prairies with a belt of stronger mid-level flow extending into the Upper Midwest. The amplified upper ridge in the Midwest/East will be somewhat suppressed as a result. A stalled surface boundary will be present from the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest. Moderate to strong mid-level northwesterlies will be present across the Northeast with possible MCVs/shortwaves moving into the region. ...Mid-Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest... Convection that occurs in Minnesota overnight Monday into early Tuesday is expected to weaken as it moves eastward. Given the weakening and veering low-level jet, it does not appear this activity will have much of an impact on the environment in northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. A stalled surface boundary will be located from northern Nebraska into Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Very rich moisture (mid/upper 70s F dewpoints) will exist in the warm sector. With mid-level lapse rates of 7.5-8 C/km, strong to extreme buoyancy will develop by the afternoon. With the main upper low in the Canadian Prairie, large-scale ascent will be subtle/nebulous. That said, convective temperatures should be reached at least locally with additional lift expected from lake breeze boundaries. Most models, including both global/regional models and CAMs, suggest development is probable from parts of northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula. Effective shear of 40-50 kt will promote some storm organization. However, magnitude of buoyancy along with modest low-level flow will likely result in storms becoming outflow dominant. A targeted Slight Risk has been added for this potential. Damaging winds are the most likely hazard with this activity, but isolated large hail could also occur. Farther southwest into southern Minnesota/Iowa/Nebraska/South Dakota, storm coverage is much less certain. There could be an increase in thunderstorm activity as the low-level jet increases during the evening. Should this occur, damaging winds and perhaps isolated large hail would be possible. Shear will be weaker in these areas and the severe threat will likely remain marginal/isolated. ...Northeast... Questions remain as to the timing of MCV/convection moving out of Canada. Given the potential for early precipitation to occur and limit surface-based instability, the Marginal Risk has been maintained for this outlook. Nevertheless, the environment will be favorable for strong to severe storms. Effective shear is expected to be around 50 kt. Damaging winds and large hail are likely the main risks; however, if storm mode is more cellular, a greater tornado risk could also be present. Trends in guidance will need to be monitored. ...Colorado/Kansas/southwest Nebraska... A modest lee trough will promote moisture advection into the central High Plains. A subtle shortwave trough moving through the central Rockies may aid in storm development. The timing of storm development is not certain, but most guidance would suggest this occurs at or after 00Z. Steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear will promote organized storms that will be capable of large hail (isolated to around 2 in.) and severe winds. Low-level shear will be enhanced near the surface trough/low, but concerns over low-level thermodynamics limit confidence in a tornado threat. ..Wendt.. 06/29/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest, and across parts of the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will be present in the Canadian Prairies with a belt of stronger mid-level flow extending into the Upper Midwest. The amplified upper ridge in the Midwest/East will be somewhat suppressed as a result. A stalled surface boundary will be present from the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest. Moderate to strong mid-level northwesterlies will be present across the Northeast with possible MCVs/shortwaves moving into the region. ...Mid-Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest... Convection that occurs in Minnesota overnight Monday into early Tuesday is expected to weaken as it moves eastward. Given the weakening and veering low-level jet, it does not appear this activity will have much of an impact on the environment in northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. A stalled surface boundary will be located from northern Nebraska into Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Very rich moisture (mid/upper 70s F dewpoints) will exist in the warm sector. With mid-level lapse rates of 7.5-8 C/km, strong to extreme buoyancy will develop by the afternoon. With the main upper low in the Canadian Prairie, large-scale ascent will be subtle/nebulous. That said, convective temperatures should be reached at least locally with additional lift expected from lake breeze boundaries. Most models, including both global/regional models and CAMs, suggest development is probable from parts of northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula. Effective shear of 40-50 kt will promote some storm organization. However, magnitude of buoyancy along with modest low-level flow will likely result in storms becoming outflow dominant. A targeted Slight Risk has been added for this potential. Damaging winds are the most likely hazard with this activity, but isolated large hail could also occur. Farther southwest into southern Minnesota/Iowa/Nebraska/South Dakota, storm coverage is much less certain. There could be an increase in thunderstorm activity as the low-level jet increases during the evening. Should this occur, damaging winds and perhaps isolated large hail would be possible. Shear will be weaker in these areas and the severe threat will likely remain marginal/isolated. ...Northeast... Questions remain as to the timing of MCV/convection moving out of Canada. Given the potential for early precipitation to occur and limit surface-based instability, the Marginal Risk has been maintained for this outlook. Nevertheless, the environment will be favorable for strong to severe storms. Effective shear is expected to be around 50 kt. Damaging winds and large hail are likely the main risks; however, if storm mode is more cellular, a greater tornado risk could also be present. Trends in guidance will need to be monitored. ...Colorado/Kansas/southwest Nebraska... A modest lee trough will promote moisture advection into the central High Plains. A subtle shortwave trough moving through the central Rockies may aid in storm development. The timing of storm development is not certain, but most guidance would suggest this occurs at or after 00Z. Steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear will promote organized storms that will be capable of large hail (isolated to around 2 in.) and severe winds. Low-level shear will be enhanced near the surface trough/low, but concerns over low-level thermodynamics limit confidence in a tornado threat. ..Wendt.. 06/29/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest today. Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns, though a couple of tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will advance eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains today. At the surface, a low will move northward out of Nebraska into the Dakotas, with a cold front/dry line extending southward to a secondary low across the central Plains. Thunderstorm activity is likely to be ongoing at the start of the period near the northern surface low across portions of the Dakotas. Additional thunderstorm activity is expected in the wake of the morning convection near the warm front lifting across North Dakota into Minnesota and near the cold front back into portions of the Mid-Missouri Valley and central Plains. ...Dakotas/Mid-Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest... Elevated supercell activity is likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the Dakotas near the surface low and nose of the low-level jet axis. The environment will be characterized by moderate to strong instability and strong deep layer shear. Guidance suggests that this will have the potential to produce large to very large hail and damaging wind. As the low develops, a warm front will extend into North Dakota/Minnesota by the afternoon. Evolution of the morning activity remains uncertain, but it appears that additional storms will develop near the warm front and back near the low/cold front into the afternoon. Near the warm front, filtered heating through broken low to mid-level cloud cover will allow for moderate instability by the afternoon. A plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates will advect northward through the afternoon. The favorable thermodynamic profiles and strong deep layer shear around 45-50 kts will support potential for supercells. If these storms can become surface based, they will be capable of all hazards. Back west near the cold front/low, initial supercells are possible by the afternoon. These will have potential primarily for large hail and damaging wind. Boundary parallel deep-layer shear will likely lead to clustering/upscale growth with time. Strong to extreme instability is expected ahead of the cold front across portions of the western Dakotas into the Midwest. As the low-level jet increases into the evening, it is possible that a corridor of more favorable damaging wind potential (including significant gusts 75+ mph) may evolve. For now, confidence in convective evolution is low with a few CAMs suppressing convection towards the evening along the front amid the strong EML until later in the evening around 06z. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible near the dryline in Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas. Moderate instability is expected within this region with generally weak deep layer shear. This will likely keep more widespread severe potential low. However, a few stronger storms may be capable of strong winds given deeply mixed profiles. For now, this potential remains too isolated to include probabilities. ..Thornton/Chalmers.. 06/29/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest today. Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns, though a couple of tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will advance eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains today. At the surface, a low will move northward out of Nebraska into the Dakotas, with a cold front/dry line extending southward to a secondary low across the central Plains. Thunderstorm activity is likely to be ongoing at the start of the period near the northern surface low across portions of the Dakotas. Additional thunderstorm activity is expected in the wake of the morning convection near the warm front lifting across North Dakota into Minnesota and near the cold front back into portions of the Mid-Missouri Valley and central Plains. ...Dakotas/Mid-Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest... Elevated supercell activity is likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the Dakotas near the surface low and nose of the low-level jet axis. The environment will be characterized by moderate to strong instability and strong deep layer shear. Guidance suggests that this will have the potential to produce large to very large hail and damaging wind. As the low develops, a warm front will extend into North Dakota/Minnesota by the afternoon. Evolution of the morning activity remains uncertain, but it appears that additional storms will develop near the warm front and back near the low/cold front into the afternoon. Near the warm front, filtered heating through broken low to mid-level cloud cover will allow for moderate instability by the afternoon. A plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates will advect northward through the afternoon. The favorable thermodynamic profiles and strong deep layer shear around 45-50 kts will support potential for supercells. If these storms can become surface based, they will be capable of all hazards. Back west near the cold front/low, initial supercells are possible by the afternoon. These will have potential primarily for large hail and damaging wind. Boundary parallel deep-layer shear will likely lead to clustering/upscale growth with time. Strong to extreme instability is expected ahead of the cold front across portions of the western Dakotas into the Midwest. As the low-level jet increases into the evening, it is possible that a corridor of more favorable damaging wind potential (including significant gusts 75+ mph) may evolve. For now, confidence in convective evolution is low with a few CAMs suppressing convection towards the evening along the front amid the strong EML until later in the evening around 06z. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible near the dryline in Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas. Moderate instability is expected within this region with generally weak deep layer shear. This will likely keep more widespread severe potential low. However, a few stronger storms may be capable of strong winds given deeply mixed profiles. For now, this potential remains too isolated to include probabilities. ..Thornton/Chalmers.. 06/29/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest today. Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns, though a couple of tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will advance eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains today. At the surface, a low will move northward out of Nebraska into the Dakotas, with a cold front/dry line extending southward to a secondary low across the central Plains. Thunderstorm activity is likely to be ongoing at the start of the period near the northern surface low across portions of the Dakotas. Additional thunderstorm activity is expected in the wake of the morning convection near the warm front lifting across North Dakota into Minnesota and near the cold front back into portions of the Mid-Missouri Valley and central Plains. ...Dakotas/Mid-Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest... Elevated supercell activity is likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the Dakotas near the surface low and nose of the low-level jet axis. The environment will be characterized by moderate to strong instability and strong deep layer shear. Guidance suggests that this will have the potential to produce large to very large hail and damaging wind. As the low develops, a warm front will extend into North Dakota/Minnesota by the afternoon. Evolution of the morning activity remains uncertain, but it appears that additional storms will develop near the warm front and back near the low/cold front into the afternoon. Near the warm front, filtered heating through broken low to mid-level cloud cover will allow for moderate instability by the afternoon. A plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates will advect northward through the afternoon. The favorable thermodynamic profiles and strong deep layer shear around 45-50 kts will support potential for supercells. If these storms can become surface based, they will be capable of all hazards. Back west near the cold front/low, initial supercells are possible by the afternoon. These will have potential primarily for large hail and damaging wind. Boundary parallel deep-layer shear will likely lead to clustering/upscale growth with time. Strong to extreme instability is expected ahead of the cold front across portions of the western Dakotas into the Midwest. As the low-level jet increases into the evening, it is possible that a corridor of more favorable damaging wind potential (including significant gusts 75+ mph) may evolve. For now, confidence in convective evolution is low with a few CAMs suppressing convection towards the evening along the front amid the strong EML until later in the evening around 06z. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible near the dryline in Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas. Moderate instability is expected within this region with generally weak deep layer shear. This will likely keep more widespread severe potential low. However, a few stronger storms may be capable of strong winds given deeply mixed profiles. For now, this potential remains too isolated to include probabilities. ..Thornton/Chalmers.. 06/29/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest today. Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns, though a couple of tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will advance eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains today. At the surface, a low will move northward out of Nebraska into the Dakotas, with a cold front/dry line extending southward to a secondary low across the central Plains. Thunderstorm activity is likely to be ongoing at the start of the period near the northern surface low across portions of the Dakotas. Additional thunderstorm activity is expected in the wake of the morning convection near the warm front lifting across North Dakota into Minnesota and near the cold front back into portions of the Mid-Missouri Valley and central Plains. ...Dakotas/Mid-Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest... Elevated supercell activity is likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the Dakotas near the surface low and nose of the low-level jet axis. The environment will be characterized by moderate to strong instability and strong deep layer shear. Guidance suggests that this will have the potential to produce large to very large hail and damaging wind. As the low develops, a warm front will extend into North Dakota/Minnesota by the afternoon. Evolution of the morning activity remains uncertain, but it appears that additional storms will develop near the warm front and back near the low/cold front into the afternoon. Near the warm front, filtered heating through broken low to mid-level cloud cover will allow for moderate instability by the afternoon. A plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates will advect northward through the afternoon. The favorable thermodynamic profiles and strong deep layer shear around 45-50 kts will support potential for supercells. If these storms can become surface based, they will be capable of all hazards. Back west near the cold front/low, initial supercells are possible by the afternoon. These will have potential primarily for large hail and damaging wind. Boundary parallel deep-layer shear will likely lead to clustering/upscale growth with time. Strong to extreme instability is expected ahead of the cold front across portions of the western Dakotas into the Midwest. As the low-level jet increases into the evening, it is possible that a corridor of more favorable damaging wind potential (including significant gusts 75+ mph) may evolve. For now, confidence in convective evolution is low with a few CAMs suppressing convection towards the evening along the front amid the strong EML until later in the evening around 06z. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible near the dryline in Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas. Moderate instability is expected within this region with generally weak deep layer shear. This will likely keep more widespread severe potential low. However, a few stronger storms may be capable of strong winds given deeply mixed profiles. For now, this potential remains too isolated to include probabilities. ..Thornton/Chalmers.. 06/29/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest today. Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns, though a couple of tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will advance eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains today. At the surface, a low will move northward out of Nebraska into the Dakotas, with a cold front/dry line extending southward to a secondary low across the central Plains. Thunderstorm activity is likely to be ongoing at the start of the period near the northern surface low across portions of the Dakotas. Additional thunderstorm activity is expected in the wake of the morning convection near the warm front lifting across North Dakota into Minnesota and near the cold front back into portions of the Mid-Missouri Valley and central Plains. ...Dakotas/Mid-Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest... Elevated supercell activity is likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the Dakotas near the surface low and nose of the low-level jet axis. The environment will be characterized by moderate to strong instability and strong deep layer shear. Guidance suggests that this will have the potential to produce large to very large hail and damaging wind. As the low develops, a warm front will extend into North Dakota/Minnesota by the afternoon. Evolution of the morning activity remains uncertain, but it appears that additional storms will develop near the warm front and back near the low/cold front into the afternoon. Near the warm front, filtered heating through broken low to mid-level cloud cover will allow for moderate instability by the afternoon. A plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates will advect northward through the afternoon. The favorable thermodynamic profiles and strong deep layer shear around 45-50 kts will support potential for supercells. If these storms can become surface based, they will be capable of all hazards. Back west near the cold front/low, initial supercells are possible by the afternoon. These will have potential primarily for large hail and damaging wind. Boundary parallel deep-layer shear will likely lead to clustering/upscale growth with time. Strong to extreme instability is expected ahead of the cold front across portions of the western Dakotas into the Midwest. As the low-level jet increases into the evening, it is possible that a corridor of more favorable damaging wind potential (including significant gusts 75+ mph) may evolve. For now, confidence in convective evolution is low with a few CAMs suppressing convection towards the evening along the front amid the strong EML until later in the evening around 06z. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible near the dryline in Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas. Moderate instability is expected within this region with generally weak deep layer shear. This will likely keep more widespread severe potential low. However, a few stronger storms may be capable of strong winds given deeply mixed profiles. For now, this potential remains too isolated to include probabilities. ..Thornton/Chalmers.. 06/29/2026 Read more

MD 1371 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1371 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Areas affected...parts of north central North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 290321Z - 290515Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong thunderstorm activity may continue to pose a risk for severe hail, and perhaps a strong downburst before weakening, while overspreading the region through Midnight-2 AM CDT. DISCUSSION...While the warmest elevated mixed-layer air has been suppressed a bit farther southeastward through the middle Missouri Valley, Rapid Refresh output suggests that temperatures around the 700 mb level remain as warm as 10+ C along a corridor northeast of the Black Hills through northeastern North Dakota. Associated inhibition, coupled with the onset of boundary-layer cooling, has contributed to rapid dissipation of earlier isolated storms within this regime. However, isolated strong thunderstorm development has persisted, and even increased and intensified a bit, within the mid-level thermal gradient to the northwest of the stronger capping. This appears aided by forcing associated with weak warm advection accompanying a subtle wave, which is forecast to continue slowly migrating toward the international border area to the northwest of Devils Lake through 05-07Z. As it does, the risk for severe hail may persist at least a couple more hours. Thermodynamic dynamic profiles characterized by steep mid-level lapse rates may also support a strong downburst, before activity weakens and/or spreads across the international border. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 06/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 48860017 48649914 47660040 47440095 47600142 48860017 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0412 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0412 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0412 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0412 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0412 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0412 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0412 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0412 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 412 SEVERE TSTM SD 290300Z - 291100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 412 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest and central South Dakota * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 1000 PM until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 90 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A cluster of severe storms, including embedded supercells, is expected to form and move northeastward into central South Dakota through daybreak. The storms will be capable of producing very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter, significant severe gusts of up to 90 mph, and possibly a tornado or two. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northeast of Pierre SD to 75 miles south of Philip SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Thompson Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Jun 29 02:18:02 UTC 2026.

MD 1370 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS PF NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1370 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Areas affected...parts pf northwestern Nebraska into southwestern South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 290044Z - 290315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Increasing strong thunderstorm development appears probable by late evening, if not earlier. This may, at least initially, include evolving supercells with large hail and at least some potential for tornadoes. Although timing remains a bit uncertain, it is appearing more probable that a severe weather watch will be needed at some point this evening. DISCUSSION...Within larger-scale mid/upper troughing across the West, another significant short wave trough is now turning eastward through the eastern Great Basin and will continue to gradually pivot east-northeastward through this evening. This may be preceded by one or two much more subtle perturbations within downstream cyclonic flow across the Colorado Rockies toward the Black Hills vicinity, with at least attempts at isolated thunderstorm development now underway northwest of Mullen NE. This storm appears to be developing near the leading edge of westerly low-level moisture return toward the high plains between the Cheyenne Ridge and Black Hills vicinity, where forcing for ascent associated with strengthening warm advection centered around the 700 mb level is forecast to focus by 02-04Z. Coupled with strengthening deep-layer and low-level shear near the nose of an intensifying low-level jet (50-60+ kt around 850 mb), the potential for supercell thunderstorm development seems likely to increase through mid to late evening, aided by inflow of air characterized by increasingly sizable potential instability. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 06/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 43240344 44120131 42620001 42340153 41810252 41820354 43240344 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more