Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN UTAH...WESTERN/SOUTHERN COLORADO...AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Afternoon Update... No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Exceptionally dry fuels, adverse weather conditions, and aggressive fire behavior (as seen on multiple large fires) are categorized by two Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisories issued across much of CO and UT, far southern WY, the AZ Strip, and eastern NV. The Elevated and Critical fire weather risk areas currently overlap portions of these advisories. A few high-based thundershowers may develop on Day 2/Thursday afternoon across northeast NV, northern UT, and southeastern ID as a shortwave trough passes over the region. Forecast soundings depict a dry sub-cloud layer, 0.3-0.5" PWATs, and 100-400 J/kg MUCAPE. The limiting factors for convective initiation are less than favorable mid-level moisture and misaligned timing of the upper shortwave trough; however, a lightning ignition cannot be ruled out with any storm that manages to develop near dry fuels. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/01/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level troughing will continue over the West, with southwest mid-level flow of 20-35 knots continuing over the greater Four Corners region. While upper-level troughing will continue, heights will rise slightly over much of the Intermountain West. Weak lee troughing will also continue on the High Plains. ...Greater Four Corners Region... Another day of dry/windy conditions will develop across the greater Four Corners region. South-southwest sustained winds of 12-20 mph with gusts of 20-35 mph amid minimum RH of 3-15% is expected as elevated/locally critical conditions begin by late morning and continue into the evening. Poor RH recovery and the 6-14 hours of elevated to critical fire weather conditions will lead to extended burn periods again as the very to record dry fuels continue to cure. Isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms are likely across portions of northeast Nevada and northwest Utah. However, uncertainty remains on if thunderstorms will develop far enough south over more receptive fuels, thus precluding introducing an IsoDryT area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe storms are possible from the northern/central Plains into the Midwest, Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic on Friday. ...Synopsis... One or multiple mid-level disturbances over the northern and central High Plains Friday morning are forecast to progress into the upper Midwest by Friday night. Meanwhile, a downstream belt of west to west-northwest flow will prevail in the mid levels from the Great Lakes into Northeast. At the surface, a lee cyclone and attending trough will exist over the northern High Plains with a secondary low pressure center over the central Plains. An outflow-modulated warm or stationary front is expected to extend from the northern Plains low into the upper Midwest. Elsewhere, there is some model signal for the development of a surface trough from southern New England into the Delmarva Friday afternoon. ...Northern and Central Plains into the Midwest and Upper Great Lakes... The potential for early-day storms introduces forecast uncertainty in subsequent afternoon/evening severe weather potential due to the location of relevant surface boundaries and extent of convective overturning. However, by afternoon, the models indicate the development of a broad corridor of moderate to strong instability across the northern and central Plains into the southern Great Lakes and OH Valley. Diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development is most probable from the vicinity of the northern Plains lee cyclone and trough east along the outflow-modulated front within a zone of forcing for ascent preceding the disturbances mentioned in the synopsis. The instability combined with modestly strong deep-layer shear will be supportive of organized storm modes capable of large to very large hail and damaging winds with the potential for significant gusts Friday afternoon into night. ...Mid-Atlantic... Increasing height falls are forecast Friday afternoon into night downstream from a more prominent short-wave trough progressing into eastern Ontario and southwest Quebec. The various 12Z models offer different scenarios in the preferred location of diurnally enhanced storms with the best overlap extending from portions of southern NY and northern PA to the Mid-Atlantic Coast. The colocation of moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear in that area may support some storm organization with the primary hazards being damaging winds and large hail. A similar environment is forecast across the region on Saturday, July 4th, potentially warranting the inclusion of higher severe weather probabilities. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... A number of models indicate the potential for one or multiple MCSs to progress through the region during the forecast period. Vertical shear is expected to be relatively weak. However, the presence of moderate to strong instability may promote periods of cold-pool organization with a related damaging wind threat. ..Mead.. 07/01/2026 Read more

WW 0429 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 429 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N MKE TO 20 S MTW TO 30 WSW MBL. ..BENTLEY..07/01/26 ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 429 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC117-012040- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SHEBOYGAN LMZ643-669-012040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1412 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 427... FOR EASTERN SD INTO SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHWEST IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1412 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026 Areas affected...Eastern SD into southern MN and northwest IA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 427... Valid 010829Z - 011000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 427 continues. SUMMARY...A damaging-wind threat will spread east-northeast through the early morning. Downstream watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...A vigorous storm cluster and attendant MCV continues to produce strong to severe gusts across southeast SD early this morning. To the east of the primary cluster, convection within a warm-advection regime has also produced sporadic severe gusts as it spreads northward from northwest IA into far southeast SD/southwest MN. With moderate deep-layer shear in place, a narrow zone with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg will continue to support organized storm potential near/north of a warm front through dawn. However, dry/stable conditions associated with decayed convection continues to move northeast across eastern NE, which may result in an increasingly narrow zone where the environment remains favorable for severe storms later this morning. As a result, the longevity of organized damaging-wind potential is uncertain as convection spreads east-northeastward. Downstream watch issuance is possible, depending on short-term trends regarding storm organization as convection approaches the eastern extent of WW 427. ..Dean/Smith.. 07/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR... LAT...LON 43989909 44879770 45209498 45119416 44929353 44709301 44579291 44399275 43969280 43379403 43039532 42939629 42839708 42809748 42899781 43359799 43499839 43989909 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0427 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 427 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW YKN TO 20 SSW MHE TO 35 W HON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1412 ..DEAN..07/01/26 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 427 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC033-063-081-083-101-105-117-133-010940- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COTTONWOOD JACKSON LINCOLN LYON MURRAY NOBLES PIPESTONE ROCK SDC005-009-011-035-061-067-073-077-079-083-087-097-099-101-111- 125-135-010940- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEADLE BON HOMME BROOKINGS DAVISON HANSON HUTCHINSON JERAULD KINGSBURY LAKE LINCOLN MCCOOK MINER MINNEHAHA MOODY SANBORN TURNER YANKTON Read more

WW 427 SEVERE TSTM MN NE SD 010505Z - 011100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 427 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Minnesota Extreme northeast Nebraska Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Wednesday morning from 1205 AM until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A storm cluster with a history of severe gusts in Nebraska will continue northeastward into southeast South Dakota and southwest Minnesota through the early morning hours. Thunderstorm gusts of 60-75 mph will be the main threat, though isolated large hail near 1 inch in diameter will also be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles north of Brookings SD to 85 miles southwest of Mitchell SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 426... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Thompson Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe storms are possible from the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic on Friday. ...Synopsis... A complex forecast is evident on Friday. The upper-level trough in the West will lose some amplitude, though modest flow will remain across portions of the central/northern High Plains along with embedded shortwave troughs. The most complicating piece of the forecast will be the convection that is expected to be ongoing within the Midwest during the morning. The NAM/GFS is decidedly farther north than the ECMWF with this activity. The NAM has a strong enough MCS/MCV that it pushes the moist, unstable airmass farther south through the day whereas the ECMWF keeps a favorable airmass into the northern Plains. Given the large spatial extent of strong to severe storm potential, a broad marginal is in place from the northern Plains into the Midwest/Mid-Atlantic. Shear and mid-level lapse rates will be more favorable within the High Plains. A more targeted Slight Risk was added for southern South Dakota into Nebraska. Here, there will be potential for severe storms along the outflow from the expected MCS on Thursday. This area has been biased southward given the potential for storms being elevated atop outflow farther north. Some northward adjustment is possible if greater airmass recovery occurs. Another area where greater probabilities may be needed is in the Great Lakes region depending on the track/intensity of the MCV that moves eastward out of the Missouri Valley vicinity. Into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic, storm coverage will be more isolated and deep-layer shear much weaker. That said, a very unstable airmass could promote isolated damaging downburst winds. ..Wendt.. 07/01/2026 Read more

WW 0427 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 427 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1411 ..DEAN..07/01/26 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 427 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC081-083-101-117-133-010740- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LINCOLN LYON MURRAY PIPESTONE ROCK NEC107-010740- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KNOX SDC003-005-009-011-015-023-035-043-053-061-067-073-077-079-083- 087-097-099-101-111-125-135-010740- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AURORA BEADLE BON HOMME Read more

MD 1411 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 426...427... FOR PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL NE INTO SOUTHEAST SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1411 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026 Areas affected...Parts of north-central NE into southeast SD Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426...427... Valid 010628Z - 010800Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426, 427 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for 60-80 mph gusts and possibly a brief tornado will spread northeastward through the early overnight hours. Isolated hail is also possible. DISCUSSION...A compact but intense storm cluster is moving across parts of the Nebraska Sand Hills early this morning. This cluster has a history of producing measured severe gusts, including 76 mph at KTIF. In the short term, this cluster should continue to move northeastward along and just north of a warm front, where a corridor of 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE (and similar magnitudes of MUCAPE north of the front) will gradually shift northward in advance of this cluster. The pre-storm VWP from KLNX depicted substantial veering of winds with height and 40+ kt of effective shear, which will continue to support embedded mesocyclones and possibly a brief tornado with this cluster through the early morning. Otherwise, gusts of 60-80 mph will remain possible from north-central NE into extreme southeast SD. Longevity of the ongoing cluster remains somewhat uncertain, due to the influence of decayed convection and attendant pocket of relative dryness/stability that is moving northward across south-central NE. However, a favorable environment is expected to remain in place through at least a narrow corridor into a larger portion of southeast SD overnight, which will support a continued threat of severe gusts. Storms developing within a warm-advection regime ahead of the primary cluster may also pose an isolated hail threat. ..Dean.. 07/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 42239803 41999911 41920006 42210016 42610019 43079996 43599892 43819810 43889724 43789679 43589661 43349645 42909655 42689659 42499694 42339749 42239803 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN UTAH...WESTERN/SOUTHERN COLORADO...AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... Upper-level troughing will continue over the West, with southwest mid-level flow of 20-35 knots continuing over the greater Four Corners region. While upper-level troughing will continue, heights will rise slightly over much of the Intermountain West. Weak lee troughing will also continue on the High Plains. ...Greater Four Corners Region... Another day of dry/windy conditions will develop across the greater Four Corners region. South-southwest sustained winds of 12-20 mph with gusts of 20-35 mph amid minimum RH of 3-15% is expected as elevated/locally critical conditions begin by late morning and continue into the evening. Poor RH recovery and the 6-14 hours of elevated to critical fire weather conditions will lead to extended burn periods again as the very to record dry fuels continue to cure. Isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms are likely across portions of northeast Nevada and northwest Utah. However, uncertainty remains on if thunderstorms will develop far enough south over more receptive fuels, thus precluding introducing an IsoDryT area for now. ..Nauslar.. 07/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN UTAH...WESTERN/SOUTHERN COLORADO...AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... Upper-level troughing will continue over the West, with southwest mid-level flow of 20-35 knots continuing over the greater Four Corners region. While upper-level troughing will continue, heights will rise slightly over much of the Intermountain West. Weak lee troughing will also continue on the High Plains. ...Greater Four Corners Region... Another day of dry/windy conditions will develop across the greater Four Corners region. South-southwest sustained winds of 12-20 mph with gusts of 20-35 mph amid minimum RH of 3-15% is expected as elevated/locally critical conditions begin by late morning and continue into the evening. Poor RH recovery and the 6-14 hours of elevated to critical fire weather conditions will lead to extended burn periods again as the very to record dry fuels continue to cure. Isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms are likely across portions of northeast Nevada and northwest Utah. However, uncertainty remains on if thunderstorms will develop far enough south over more receptive fuels, thus precluding introducing an IsoDryT area for now. ..Nauslar.. 07/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN/SOUTHERN COLORADO...NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO...NORTHEAST ARIZONA...AND EASTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... Upper-level troughing will continue over the West with weaker shortwave troughs rotating through. Mid-level southwest flow of 25-40 knots is expected across the Four Corners region with a very dry airmass remaining in place. ...Greater Four Corners Region... Sustained southwest winds of 12-20 mph with gusts of 20-35 mph amid minimum RH of 3-15% will develop from late morning into the evening across the greater Four Corners region. Steep low-level lapse rates and deep boundary layer mixing will allow for gusty winds to descend to the surface, while cross mountain flow will also allow for stronger downslope winds on lee slopes across the region. Continued poor overnight RH recovery will aid in longer burn periods with 7 to 15 hours of elevated/critical fire weather conditions. The Critical area may have more locally critical conditions rather than critical conditions based strictly on SPC's criteria. However, given the expected duration of the elevated/locally critical conditions, several consecutive days of dry/windy conditions, very to record dry fuels, and recent significant fire activity, the Critical area was expanded. ...Western Great Basin... Locally elevated conditions are expected across southern Nevada extending to the eastern slopes of the southern Sierra and possibly into central and northeast Nevada. Additionally, high-based showers and thunderstorms are possible across portions of northeast Nevada and northwest Utah. There is uncertainty regarding thunderstorms developing over receptive fuels, but a storm or two developing over areas with ERCs exceeding the 80th percentile cannot be ruled out. ..Nauslar.. 07/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN/SOUTHERN COLORADO...NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO...NORTHEAST ARIZONA...AND EASTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... Upper-level troughing will continue over the West with weaker shortwave troughs rotating through. Mid-level southwest flow of 25-40 knots is expected across the Four Corners region with a very dry airmass remaining in place. ...Greater Four Corners Region... Sustained southwest winds of 12-20 mph with gusts of 20-35 mph amid minimum RH of 3-15% will develop from late morning into the evening across the greater Four Corners region. Steep low-level lapse rates and deep boundary layer mixing will allow for gusty winds to descend to the surface, while cross mountain flow will also allow for stronger downslope winds on lee slopes across the region. Continued poor overnight RH recovery will aid in longer burn periods with 7 to 15 hours of elevated/critical fire weather conditions. The Critical area may have more locally critical conditions rather than critical conditions based strictly on SPC's criteria. However, given the expected duration of the elevated/locally critical conditions, several consecutive days of dry/windy conditions, very to record dry fuels, and recent significant fire activity, the Critical area was expanded. ...Western Great Basin... Locally elevated conditions are expected across southern Nevada extending to the eastern slopes of the southern Sierra and possibly into central and northeast Nevada. Additionally, high-based showers and thunderstorms are possible across portions of northeast Nevada and northwest Utah. There is uncertainty regarding thunderstorms developing over receptive fuels, but a storm or two developing over areas with ERCs exceeding the 80th percentile cannot be ruled out. ..Nauslar.. 07/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms will be possible from the northern Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Thursday. Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur in the Tennessee Valley/Southeast as well as parts of the Northeast. ...Northern Plains into Mid-Missouri Valley... Broad cyclonic flow aloft across the Rockies will promote a lee trough and a modest surface low in the vicinity of the Black Hills. A surface boundary will arc from eastern Montana into northern South Dakota and southern Minnesota. Moisture advection into the High Plains will couple with higher terrain of MT/WY/SD as well as the surface boundary to initiate convection during the afternoon. Supercells will be likely initially with an attendant risk of large to very-large hail, severe winds, and a tornado or two. Mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km will promote rapid intensification and strong downdrafts. Couple this with modest effective shear of 40-45 kt and upscale growth will be likely with time. An MCS is possible and would likely track along the surface boundary. Wind gusts of 75+ mph would be possible with this activity. While most guidance does not show development along the surface boundary towards the mid-Missouri Valley, there will be weak warm advection ongoing through the day that will increase by late afternoon. Should storms develop here, they would likely be more isolated/cellular. A similar threat for large/very-large hail and severe gusts would exist along with a locally greater tornado threat. This would especially be the case if storms can remain discrete into the evening when low-level shear increases. Depending on whether this activity develops/evolves, this will have an impact on the spatial extent of a greater threat for severe winds into the evening and beyond. Given that uncertainty, the Slight Risk will be maintained with potential increases in wind probabilities in subsequent outlooks as confidence increases. ...Midwest... Convection is expected to be ongoing in parts of the region. At least an isolated threat for damaging winds and large hail would exist with this activity. There remain some potential for intensification to occur as storms move east during the day. The Slight Risk remains in place into far western Lower Michigan to account for this potential. Later in the afternoon, redevelopment is possible along the outflow from earlier activity. The most robust model signals are in Iowa and parts of Wisconsin. Large hail would be possible especially in Iowa where mid-level lapse rates would be steeper. Otherwise damaging winds would be the main threat. A tornado or two could occur, but low-level shear will be rather weak. ...Northeast... Strong buoyancy and modest shear will again be in place across the region. At least isolated storms are possible during the afternoon. Damaging winds should be the main threat with this activity. Isolated large hail may occur with the strongest storms, but modest mid-level lapse rates will limit this threat. Some guidance does show more organized activity moving into the region from Ontario/Quebec, but this may not occur until late afternoon. Confidence in that scenario occurring is too low for an increase in wind probabilities. ...Tennessee Valley/Southeast... Strong heating of a very moist airmass will promote scattered to numerous storms during the afternoon. Congealing outflows will help to organize activity even with very weak shear. Given mid-level lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km, at least marginally severe storms will be possible. Damaging winds are the expected hazard. ..Wendt.. 07/01/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms will be possible from the northern Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Thursday. Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur in the Tennessee Valley/Southeast as well as parts of the Northeast. ...Northern Plains into Mid-Missouri Valley... Broad cyclonic flow aloft across the Rockies will promote a lee trough and a modest surface low in the vicinity of the Black Hills. A surface boundary will arc from eastern Montana into northern South Dakota and southern Minnesota. Moisture advection into the High Plains will couple with higher terrain of MT/WY/SD as well as the surface boundary to initiate convection during the afternoon. Supercells will be likely initially with an attendant risk of large to very-large hail, severe winds, and a tornado or two. Mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km will promote rapid intensification and strong downdrafts. Couple this with modest effective shear of 40-45 kt and upscale growth will be likely with time. An MCS is possible and would likely track along the surface boundary. Wind gusts of 75+ mph would be possible with this activity. While most guidance does not show development along the surface boundary towards the mid-Missouri Valley, there will be weak warm advection ongoing through the day that will increase by late afternoon. Should storms develop here, they would likely be more isolated/cellular. A similar threat for large/very-large hail and severe gusts would exist along with a locally greater tornado threat. This would especially be the case if storms can remain discrete into the evening when low-level shear increases. Depending on whether this activity develops/evolves, this will have an impact on the spatial extent of a greater threat for severe winds into the evening and beyond. Given that uncertainty, the Slight Risk will be maintained with potential increases in wind probabilities in subsequent outlooks as confidence increases. ...Midwest... Convection is expected to be ongoing in parts of the region. At least an isolated threat for damaging winds and large hail would exist with this activity. There remain some potential for intensification to occur as storms move east during the day. The Slight Risk remains in place into far western Lower Michigan to account for this potential. Later in the afternoon, redevelopment is possible along the outflow from earlier activity. The most robust model signals are in Iowa and parts of Wisconsin. Large hail would be possible especially in Iowa where mid-level lapse rates would be steeper. Otherwise damaging winds would be the main threat. A tornado or two could occur, but low-level shear will be rather weak. ...Northeast... Strong buoyancy and modest shear will again be in place across the region. At least isolated storms are possible during the afternoon. Damaging winds should be the main threat with this activity. Isolated large hail may occur with the strongest storms, but modest mid-level lapse rates will limit this threat. Some guidance does show more organized activity moving into the region from Ontario/Quebec, but this may not occur until late afternoon. Confidence in that scenario occurring is too low for an increase in wind probabilities. ...Tennessee Valley/Southeast... Strong heating of a very moist airmass will promote scattered to numerous storms during the afternoon. Congealing outflows will help to organize activity even with very weak shear. Given mid-level lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km, at least marginally severe storms will be possible. Damaging winds are the expected hazard. ..Wendt.. 07/01/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes today and tonight. Damaging wind gusts (some to 80 mph) are the main concern, in addition to isolated large to very large hail and a few tornadoes. Additional severe storms are possible across parts of the the central High Plains and Northeast. ...Midwest and Upper Great Lakes ... Within a belt of strong midlevel southwesterly flow extending from the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse should be the focus for ongoing/morning strong-severe storms over parts of southern MN and vicinity. This activity will mainly pose a risk for damaging gusts and possibly large hail. These storms should continue developing/spreading east-northeastward into the Upper Midwest along a stationary boundary, where diurnal heating of a moist air mass and steep lapse rates will lead to strong surface-based buoyancy. This, combined with around 40 kt of effective shear, will favor a mix of supercells and organized clusters. Scattered damaging wind gusts, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible. Thereafter, high-resolution guidance is in general agreement, depicting a second round of upstream thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening in the vicinity of southern MN -- likely in response to a strengthening low-level jet and related isentropic lift. Similarly, these storms should spread east-northeastward through a strongly unstable air mass and 40-50 kt of effective shear (with increasing clockwise-curved hodographs). Swaths of damaging winds (some gusts near 80 mph possible), large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Central High Plains... High-based thunderstorm development is expected along a north/south-oriented lee trough/dryline during the afternoon and evening. Despite modest deep-layer shear (around 25-30 kt), steep low/mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly unstable air mass. A mix of loosely organized clusters and possibly some supercell structures will be capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail. ...Northeast... Enhanced west-northwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Northeast, where a warm/moist air mass will contribute to around 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. While nebulous mesoscale forcing for ascent casts uncertainty on overall convective coverage and evolution, the strong buoyancy and a veering wind profile (albeit modest deep-layer shear) will favor east-southeastward-spreading convection capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated hail during the afternoon and again during the evening/nighttime hours. ...Southeast... Along the southern periphery of a midlevel anticyclone centered over the central Appalachians, a belt of 20-30-kt east-southeasterly flow in the 700-500-mb layer will overspread a hot/moist air mass with 4500 J/kg MLCAPE during the afternoon. Despite limited deep-layer shear, the extreme buoyancy and well-mixed boundary layer will be favorable for wet microbursts with the stronger convective clusters that evolve. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of a slow-moving midlevel trough moving across the Northwest. Preceding the trough, around 40 kt of midlevel southwesterly flow and a weakly unstable air mass will support a couple loosely organized clusters capable of producing severe wind gusts during the afternoon and evening. ..Weinman/Chalmers.. 07/01/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes today and tonight. Damaging wind gusts (some to 80 mph) are the main concern, in addition to isolated large to very large hail and a few tornadoes. Additional severe storms are possible across parts of the the central High Plains and Northeast. ...Midwest and Upper Great Lakes ... Within a belt of strong midlevel southwesterly flow extending from the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse should be the focus for ongoing/morning strong-severe storms over parts of southern MN and vicinity. This activity will mainly pose a risk for damaging gusts and possibly large hail. These storms should continue developing/spreading east-northeastward into the Upper Midwest along a stationary boundary, where diurnal heating of a moist air mass and steep lapse rates will lead to strong surface-based buoyancy. This, combined with around 40 kt of effective shear, will favor a mix of supercells and organized clusters. Scattered damaging wind gusts, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible. Thereafter, high-resolution guidance is in general agreement, depicting a second round of upstream thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening in the vicinity of southern MN -- likely in response to a strengthening low-level jet and related isentropic lift. Similarly, these storms should spread east-northeastward through a strongly unstable air mass and 40-50 kt of effective shear (with increasing clockwise-curved hodographs). Swaths of damaging winds (some gusts near 80 mph possible), large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Central High Plains... High-based thunderstorm development is expected along a north/south-oriented lee trough/dryline during the afternoon and evening. Despite modest deep-layer shear (around 25-30 kt), steep low/mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly unstable air mass. A mix of loosely organized clusters and possibly some supercell structures will be capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail. ...Northeast... Enhanced west-northwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Northeast, where a warm/moist air mass will contribute to around 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. While nebulous mesoscale forcing for ascent casts uncertainty on overall convective coverage and evolution, the strong buoyancy and a veering wind profile (albeit modest deep-layer shear) will favor east-southeastward-spreading convection capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated hail during the afternoon and again during the evening/nighttime hours. ...Southeast... Along the southern periphery of a midlevel anticyclone centered over the central Appalachians, a belt of 20-30-kt east-southeasterly flow in the 700-500-mb layer will overspread a hot/moist air mass with 4500 J/kg MLCAPE during the afternoon. Despite limited deep-layer shear, the extreme buoyancy and well-mixed boundary layer will be favorable for wet microbursts with the stronger convective clusters that evolve. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of a slow-moving midlevel trough moving across the Northwest. Preceding the trough, around 40 kt of midlevel southwesterly flow and a weakly unstable air mass will support a couple loosely organized clusters capable of producing severe wind gusts during the afternoon and evening. ..Weinman/Chalmers.. 07/01/2026 Read more

WW 0426 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W IML TO 40 NNW IML TO 50 ENE SNY. ..KERR..07/01/26 ATTN...WFO...BOU...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-009-015-017-029-031-041-063-071-075-085-089-091-101-103- 111-113-115-117-135-149-171-183-010540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BLAINE BOYD BROWN CHASE CHERRY CUSTER FRONTIER GARFIELD GRANT HAYES HOLT HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON PERKINS ROCK THOMAS WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0426 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W IML TO 40 NNW IML TO 50 ENE SNY. ..KERR..07/01/26 ATTN...WFO...BOU...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-009-015-017-029-031-041-063-071-075-085-089-091-101-103- 111-113-115-117-135-149-171-183-010540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BLAINE BOYD BROWN CHASE CHERRY CUSTER FRONTIER GARFIELD GRANT HAYES HOLT HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON PERKINS ROCK THOMAS WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 426 SEVERE TSTM CO NE 010110Z - 010700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 426 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 810 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme northeast Colorado Southwest into north central Nebraska * Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 810 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are beginning to intensify in extreme northeast Colorado. The initial, more discrete storms could be supercells with 1-2 inch diameter hail. Upscale growth into a cluster is likely through early tonight with an increasing threat for 60-80 mph outflow winds across Nebraska, as well as at least isolated large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles west of Imperial NE to 30 miles northeast of Ainsworth NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 424...WW 425... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Thompson Read more