Storm Prediction Center

WW 0210 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0210 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0208 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 208 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE PAH TO 45 ENE MVN TO 15 N HUF. ..SQUITIERI..05/16/26 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...PAH...IND...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 208 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC033-047-101-185-193-170040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD EDWARDS LAWRENCE WABASH WHITE INC005-013-019-025-027-029-031-037-043-051-055-061-071-077-079- 083-093-101-105-115-117-123-125-129-137-143-147-153-155-163-173- 175-170040- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BROWN CLARK CRAWFORD DAVIESS DEARBORN DECATUR DUBOIS FLOYD GIBSON GREENE HARRISON JACKSON JEFFERSON JENNINGS KNOX LAWRENCE MARTIN MONROE OHIO ORANGE PERRY PIKE POSEY RIPLEY SCOTT SPENCER Read more

WW 208 SEVERE TSTM IL IN KY 162045Z - 170300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 208 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Southern Indiana Northern Kentucky * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage this afternoon and evening within the moist and unstable environment in place from southern Illinois into southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. The strongest storms within this region will be capable of large hail and/or damaging gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west southwest of Salem IL to 65 miles northeast of Louisville KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25020. ...Mosier Read more

MD 0738 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0738 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Areas affected...much of central into southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 162142Z - 170015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Storms are expected to become more numerous through this evening, with areas of damaging hail and wind expected. DISCUSSION...A quasi-stationary front extends from southern IA across southern NE and into northeast KS, with scattered convection along the length of it. Surface winds are easterly within this zone, with 35-40 kt midlevel southwest flow aloft. The result is around 50 kt deep layer shear. Meanwhile, daytime heating as well as moisture advection/boundary layer deepening has led to moderate instability. Forecast soundings still show steep lapse rates aloft despite subtle height rises, and this should foster a few storms with very large hail. A damaging wind threat may develop over time as storms ride along the boundary. Storms may form into northeast KS which is south of the boundary. Here, visible imagery shows substantial CU developing with the moist axis where dewpoints are in the mid 60s F. The modified 18Z TOP soundings shows an uncapped air mass. Shear is not as strong with southward extend, but sufficient for at least short-lived severe hail or wind. ..Jewell/Smith.. 05/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 40699572 40229559 39699562 39259581 39139633 39139707 39239787 39499882 39589959 40009964 39990017 40330018 40479999 40709999 40700024 41760023 41699754 41549629 41049589 40699572 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0211 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0211 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 211 SEVERE TSTM IA KS MO NE 162210Z - 170600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 211 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 510 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Western Iowa Northern into Northeast Kansas Far Northwest Missouri Central into Eastern Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning from 510 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered supercells capable of a risk for large to very large hail are expected through early evening. A tornado is also possible towards early evening near a west to east oriented boundary draped in southern Nebraska. A clustering of storms is expected eventually later this evening and an eastward-moving linear cluster capable of severe gusts will likely evolve. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west southwest of Kearney NE to 50 miles south southeast of Omaha NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 208...WW 209...WW 210... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27015. ...Smith Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z A progressive mid-level synoptic pattern is expected to persist across the central CONUS through mid-next-week. Early in the week, a highly amplified trough will advance eastward from the Great Basin, yielding a robust, fast-moving mid-level jet max over the southern/central Rockies and High Plains. Meanwhile, a strengthening surface low over the Central Plains will tighten pressure gradients, resulting in widespread strong winds overlapping a dry boundary layer over the Southwest and southern High Plains. By mid-to-late week, the primary mid-level trough will eject northeastward into the Plains, driving a cold front with precipitation through the central US. ...Southern Plains/Southwest... As the core of the strong mid-level jet emerges over the southern Rockies on Day 3/Monday, intense deep-layer mixing will occur beneath the trough on Monday amid above normal surface temperatures. Sustained southwesterly surface winds of 25-30 mph are anticipated across eastern NM, West TX, the OK/TX Panhandles, and adjoining areas. Clear skies and strong downslope warming will drop afternoon relative humidity (RH) values into the single digits and possibly below 5% in some areas. Thus, solidly Critical fire weather conditions are expected with some potential for Extremely Critical conditions given the preceding lightning activity and the continuing multi-day threat. On Day 4/Tuesday and Day 5/Wednesday, lingering moderately strong mid-level flow overhead as the trough begins to lift northeast will contribute to additional chances, albeit less certain, for critical wind/RH over portions of the Southwest. ..Stearns.. 05/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z A progressive mid-level synoptic pattern is expected to persist across the central CONUS through mid-next-week. Early in the week, a highly amplified trough will advance eastward from the Great Basin, yielding a robust, fast-moving mid-level jet max over the southern/central Rockies and High Plains. Meanwhile, a strengthening surface low over the Central Plains will tighten pressure gradients, resulting in widespread strong winds overlapping a dry boundary layer over the Southwest and southern High Plains. By mid-to-late week, the primary mid-level trough will eject northeastward into the Plains, driving a cold front with precipitation through the central US. ...Southern Plains/Southwest... As the core of the strong mid-level jet emerges over the southern Rockies on Day 3/Monday, intense deep-layer mixing will occur beneath the trough on Monday amid above normal surface temperatures. Sustained southwesterly surface winds of 25-30 mph are anticipated across eastern NM, West TX, the OK/TX Panhandles, and adjoining areas. Clear skies and strong downslope warming will drop afternoon relative humidity (RH) values into the single digits and possibly below 5% in some areas. Thus, solidly Critical fire weather conditions are expected with some potential for Extremely Critical conditions given the preceding lightning activity and the continuing multi-day threat. On Day 4/Tuesday and Day 5/Wednesday, lingering moderately strong mid-level flow overhead as the trough begins to lift northeast will contribute to additional chances, albeit less certain, for critical wind/RH over portions of the Southwest. ..Stearns.. 05/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z A progressive mid-level synoptic pattern is expected to persist across the central CONUS through mid-next-week. Early in the week, a highly amplified trough will advance eastward from the Great Basin, yielding a robust, fast-moving mid-level jet max over the southern/central Rockies and High Plains. Meanwhile, a strengthening surface low over the Central Plains will tighten pressure gradients, resulting in widespread strong winds overlapping a dry boundary layer over the Southwest and southern High Plains. By mid-to-late week, the primary mid-level trough will eject northeastward into the Plains, driving a cold front with precipitation through the central US. ...Southern Plains/Southwest... As the core of the strong mid-level jet emerges over the southern Rockies on Day 3/Monday, intense deep-layer mixing will occur beneath the trough on Monday amid above normal surface temperatures. Sustained southwesterly surface winds of 25-30 mph are anticipated across eastern NM, West TX, the OK/TX Panhandles, and adjoining areas. Clear skies and strong downslope warming will drop afternoon relative humidity (RH) values into the single digits and possibly below 5% in some areas. Thus, solidly Critical fire weather conditions are expected with some potential for Extremely Critical conditions given the preceding lightning activity and the continuing multi-day threat. On Day 4/Tuesday and Day 5/Wednesday, lingering moderately strong mid-level flow overhead as the trough begins to lift northeast will contribute to additional chances, albeit less certain, for critical wind/RH over portions of the Southwest. ..Stearns.. 05/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z A progressive mid-level synoptic pattern is expected to persist across the central CONUS through mid-next-week. Early in the week, a highly amplified trough will advance eastward from the Great Basin, yielding a robust, fast-moving mid-level jet max over the southern/central Rockies and High Plains. Meanwhile, a strengthening surface low over the Central Plains will tighten pressure gradients, resulting in widespread strong winds overlapping a dry boundary layer over the Southwest and southern High Plains. By mid-to-late week, the primary mid-level trough will eject northeastward into the Plains, driving a cold front with precipitation through the central US. ...Southern Plains/Southwest... As the core of the strong mid-level jet emerges over the southern Rockies on Day 3/Monday, intense deep-layer mixing will occur beneath the trough on Monday amid above normal surface temperatures. Sustained southwesterly surface winds of 25-30 mph are anticipated across eastern NM, West TX, the OK/TX Panhandles, and adjoining areas. Clear skies and strong downslope warming will drop afternoon relative humidity (RH) values into the single digits and possibly below 5% in some areas. Thus, solidly Critical fire weather conditions are expected with some potential for Extremely Critical conditions given the preceding lightning activity and the continuing multi-day threat. On Day 4/Tuesday and Day 5/Wednesday, lingering moderately strong mid-level flow overhead as the trough begins to lift northeast will contribute to additional chances, albeit less certain, for critical wind/RH over portions of the Southwest. ..Stearns.. 05/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z A progressive mid-level synoptic pattern is expected to persist across the central CONUS through mid-next-week. Early in the week, a highly amplified trough will advance eastward from the Great Basin, yielding a robust, fast-moving mid-level jet max over the southern/central Rockies and High Plains. Meanwhile, a strengthening surface low over the Central Plains will tighten pressure gradients, resulting in widespread strong winds overlapping a dry boundary layer over the Southwest and southern High Plains. By mid-to-late week, the primary mid-level trough will eject northeastward into the Plains, driving a cold front with precipitation through the central US. ...Southern Plains/Southwest... As the core of the strong mid-level jet emerges over the southern Rockies on Day 3/Monday, intense deep-layer mixing will occur beneath the trough on Monday amid above normal surface temperatures. Sustained southwesterly surface winds of 25-30 mph are anticipated across eastern NM, West TX, the OK/TX Panhandles, and adjoining areas. Clear skies and strong downslope warming will drop afternoon relative humidity (RH) values into the single digits and possibly below 5% in some areas. Thus, solidly Critical fire weather conditions are expected with some potential for Extremely Critical conditions given the preceding lightning activity and the continuing multi-day threat. On Day 4/Tuesday and Day 5/Wednesday, lingering moderately strong mid-level flow overhead as the trough begins to lift northeast will contribute to additional chances, albeit less certain, for critical wind/RH over portions of the Southwest. ..Stearns.. 05/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0210 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0210 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 210 TORNADO IA MO 162140Z - 170400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 210 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern into Southwest Iowa Northern Missouri * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 440 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Scattered supercells are forecast to continue to develop and intensify through the late afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail will be possible with the supercells. The more intense supercells will also be capable of a tornado risk through the mid to late evening before a gradual congealing of storms and clustering gradually lessens the overall severe risk. The threat for severe gusts may increase as storms grow upscale into one or more clusters later this evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles northwest of Lamoni IA to 30 miles east southeast of Chillicothe MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 208...WW 209... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27015. ...Smith Read more

MD 0737 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 0737 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Areas affected...Northern Missouri and southwest Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 162020Z - 162145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is becoming more probable along a residual outflow boundary in Missouri and along a stalled front in Iowa. A watch may be needed by 21-22z. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery reveals a gradual increase/deepening of cumulus along a residual outflow boundary in northern MO, along a stalled front in IA, and in the open warm sector into northeast KS. Farther east, slightly elevated convection has shown recent signs of intensification to the cool side of the outflow across north central MO. Continued surface heating along and south-through-west of these boundaries will continue to weaken inhibition (relatively weak MLCIN modifying the 18z TOP sounding for 90/64 F), and thunderstorm development will become more probable. The backed low-level flow to the immediate cool side of the boundaries will augment vertical shear and support supercells capable of producing very large hail, wind damage, and a couple of tornadoes. ..Thompson/Mosier.. 05/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX... LAT...LON 40079295 39759276 39339291 39239323 39509384 40069453 40339500 40439552 40729569 40989553 41229457 41169408 41039375 40449327 40079295 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0735 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0735 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Areas affected...Southern portions of Illinois and Indiana...much of central and western Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 161913Z - 162115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage this afternoon, with scattered severe storms expected capable of damaging wind gusts, large hail, and possibly a tornado. A watch is possible and convective trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...An MCV was located over southern IL at 19z, and this feature is expected to continue moving east across the discussion area this afternoon. A remnant outflow boundary extended east-west from far southern IL into northern KY and southern IN. Isolated thunderstorm development was noted over far southern IL, and deepening cumulus clouds were noted in the vicinity of the Ohio River as heating/reduction of CINH takes place. Despite areas of cloud cover, filtered heating will contribute to moderate MLCAPE with values of 1500 to locally in excess of 2000 J/kg expected. Slightly stronger mid-level flow east of the MCV will contribute to 30-40 kts of southwesterly deep-layer shear, supportive of organized storms including supercells. Thunderstorms should continue to develop/increase in coverage over the next few hours, with a risk for damaging gusts and large hail. With time, small linear/bowing segments may develop, along with more focused wind damage potential. The potential for a tornado is non zero, and will exist primarily with any more discrete storm in the vicinity of the weakening outflow boundary where low-level SRH will be locally maximized. Convective trends are being monitored, and watch issuance is possible by 20-21z. ..Bunting/Mosier.. 05/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 38558900 38828811 38778618 38798458 38598378 38088341 37478372 37178468 37128531 37128589 37128630 37098682 37058718 36898761 36938791 37068837 37518919 38078939 38558900 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0209 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0209 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0209 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0209 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 209 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 162105Z - 170400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 209 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 305 PM MDT Sat May 16 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Northwest Kansas Southwest Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across northeast Colorado this afternoon, with additional isolated storms farther east into southwest Nebraska. The Colorado storms will likely develop into a well-organized convective line by this evening, tracking east-northeastward during the evening and overnight. Large to very large hail is possible initially, with a transition to damaging gusts once the convective line develops. Significant severe gusts over 75 mph are possible. There is also a low-probability tornado risk with any more discrete storms along the southern periphery of any convective line. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles northeast of Sidney NE to 35 miles south of Burlington CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 208... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0208 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0208 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL HIGH AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail, severe/damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes remain likely this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains into Iowa. ...20z Update OH valley/Midwest... Ahead of several MCVs and outflow from prior convection, ample heating is supporting destabilization amid mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely across over southern IL/IN into northern KY through this evening. Moderate buoyancy and ~30 kt of deep-layer shear will promote a mix of organized multicell structures capable of damaging gusts and some hail. A tornado or two also remains possible with any stronger linear clusters or transient supercells able to become established. See MCD#735 for short term information. ...Central High Plains to the Mid MO Valley... Several foci for strong to severe convection remain apparent this afternoon along a broad frontal zone from the Rockies/High Plains to the Mid MO Valley. Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening near the intersection of the surface trough and stalled front across the mid MO Valley. Moderate to strong destabilization and 40+ kt of westerly deep-layer shear will support supercell structures with large hail and damaging winds over te mid MO Valley. A locally greater tornado risk may develop with any sustained supercells across parts of eastern NE and southern IA into northern MO where baked low-level flow near a modifying outflow boundary intersects with the stalled front. Initial convective development within the broad upslope regime across the higher terrain of the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains should continue to intensify as it moves eastward this afternoon/evening encountering progressively stronger buoyancy and shear. This will support supercells with large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two from northeastern CO and southwest NE into northwest KS. Upscale growth into one or more clusters with a continued severe threat is expected tonight along and north of the stationary front across the central Plains. See MCD#736 for more information. ...Southern Plains... A conditional risk for strong thunderstorms remains apparent along the dryline late this afternoon/evening across portions of the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. Displaced from the stronger deep-layer shear, and likely high based owing the strong low-level mixing, predominately multi cell storms are possible amid steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Confidence in convective initiation remains low but a risk for damaging gusts and hail remains possible. ..Lyons.. 05/16/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026/ ...Central High Plains into Mid MO Valley... Recent surface analysis placed a low over southwest KS, with a warm front extending through a low over far southeast NE to a third low over southern WI. The low over southwest KS is forecast to fill while another low develops back farther west across southeast CO today. As it does, low-level moisture advection will persist across the central Plains, while a deeper upper trough traverses the Intermountain West. Combination of low-level convergence east and north of the surface low and increasing large-scale ascent will favor thunderstorm development during the late afternoon/early evening across northeast CO. This initial activity is expected to be supercellular, with large to very large hail as the primary risk. This initial activity should be high-based, with strong downdrafts resulting in a quick transition to a linear mode. Even so, some tornado risk is still apparent, particularly with the southernmost supercells that persist through the early evening when a strengthening low-level jet will lengthen low-level hodographs considerably. Most guidance continues to suggest that an intense bowing cluster, with significant wind gusts over 75 mph possible, will develop and spread eastward along/near the warm front from along the southern NE/northern KS border vicinity through the evening. Given the organized nature of this line, it should persist throughout most of the night, and an eastward expansion has been made to the Enhanced Risk to account for increased probability of strong gusts into more of southeast NE. A separate area of intense thunderstorms is anticipated farther east this afternoon/evening along/near the warm front. Given the ongoing thunderstorms across northern MO, there is some question to where the front consolidates this afternoon. Consensus within the guidance places it from far southeast NE across southern IA, but there is some chance it ends up a bit farther south in far northern MO. Robust thunderstorm development is expected along this boundary this afternoon amid strong low-level moisture advection and heating, and persistent low-level convergence. Environmental conditions support supercells capable of all severe hazards, including large to very large hail (isolated 2"+ inches in diameter) and tornadoes, but a messy convective mode and related storm interference could disrupt updrafts and may limit discreteness. Tornado risk will be focused along/near the front where backed low-level easterly winds may locally enhance 0-1 km SRH. Some clustering is possible, with an attendant threat for more damaging gusts wherever this clustering occurs. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley... With the primary shortwave trough well west of the region, mesoscale features will dominate the severe potential across the region today. One such feature is the MCV currently moving through southeast MO. This feature is expected to result in a localized increase in mid-level flow along its eastern periphery as it progresses eastward/northeastward along the OH River vicinity. Filtered heating and/or outflow from the ongoing showers and thunderstorms could result in a baroclinic zone ahead of this vorticity maximum from north-central KY into far southern IN. Expectation is that ascent attendant to the MCS coupled with low-level convergence along this boundary will result in additional thunderstorm development this afternoon. The locally enhanced mid-level flow coupled with modest low-level southerly flow should result in moderate vertical shear, with effective bulk shear values from 30 to 40 kt. This is sufficient for updraft organization, but the mixed boundary layer will likely support strong downdrafts. The general expectation is for an early mostly multicell/isolated supercell mode to transition quickly to a more linear mode with one or more bowing line segments. Isolated hail is possible early in the convective cycle, with a trend towards more damaging gusts with time. Given the modest and veered low-level flow, the tornado potential will be low, but the presence of a boundary suggests that there remains a low-probability tornado risk. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated thunderstorms may initiate this afternoon along the surface dryline from southwest KS into the eastern OK/TX Panhandles and western OK. While deep-layer shear will be weaker with southward extent across the southern High Plains, a narrow zone of minimal MLCIN along/east of the dryline may support isolated convection capable of producing both locally severe hail and wind gusts. Read more