Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Afternoon Update... No changes were made to the Elevated fire weather outlook area. Locally critical fire weather conditions may emerge across the higher terrain of the central Colorado Rockies on Day 2/Monday, especially within the San Luis Valley where RH of 15% or less will combine with sustained west-southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph. This region did have sporadic areas of appreciable rainfall last week; however, several preceding days of hot, dry, and windy conditions have preconditioned fuels to become increasingly more receptive (90-99th percentile ERCs). The rest of the forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/28/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026/ ...Synopsis... Longwave upper troughing will continue to remain positioned across the Intermountain West on D2/Monday. An embedded, mid-level shortwave trough will eject northeastward across the northern High Plains, with the strongest mid-level flow shifting northeastward in tandem with this feature. A second mid-level shortwave will simultaneously pivot southeastward into the Southwest. Combined with a persistent dry air mass and lingering enhanced mid-level flow, this will continue to support expansive fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Southwest/Four Corners region... Enhanced southwesterly, mid-level flow will continue to persist across portions of the Southwest and Four Corners region on Monday ahead of an approaching shortwave trough forecast to pivot southeastward into southern California Monday afternoon. This will support sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph amid very low RH values of 10-15%. Several days of antecedent dry, windy conditions will continue to exacerbate fuel dryness/receptiveness (with ERCs in the 80th to 95th percentiles or greater across much of the region). This will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns across much of Arizona, eastern Utah, western Colorado, western New Mexico, and portions of southern Wyoming. Occasional wind gusts of 30+ mph will also be possible, primarily across portions of western/central Colorado where the strongest mid-level flow is forecast to overlap a deep, well-mixed boundary layer. Minor adjustments were made with this outlook cycle to reflect the latest guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Afternoon Update... No changes were made to the Elevated fire weather outlook area. Locally critical fire weather conditions may emerge across the higher terrain of the central Colorado Rockies on Day 2/Monday, especially within the San Luis Valley where RH of 15% or less will combine with sustained west-southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph. This region did have sporadic areas of appreciable rainfall last week; however, several preceding days of hot, dry, and windy conditions have preconditioned fuels to become increasingly more receptive (90-99th percentile ERCs). The rest of the forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/28/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026/ ...Synopsis... Longwave upper troughing will continue to remain positioned across the Intermountain West on D2/Monday. An embedded, mid-level shortwave trough will eject northeastward across the northern High Plains, with the strongest mid-level flow shifting northeastward in tandem with this feature. A second mid-level shortwave will simultaneously pivot southeastward into the Southwest. Combined with a persistent dry air mass and lingering enhanced mid-level flow, this will continue to support expansive fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Southwest/Four Corners region... Enhanced southwesterly, mid-level flow will continue to persist across portions of the Southwest and Four Corners region on Monday ahead of an approaching shortwave trough forecast to pivot southeastward into southern California Monday afternoon. This will support sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph amid very low RH values of 10-15%. Several days of antecedent dry, windy conditions will continue to exacerbate fuel dryness/receptiveness (with ERCs in the 80th to 95th percentiles or greater across much of the region). This will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns across much of Arizona, eastern Utah, western Colorado, western New Mexico, and portions of southern Wyoming. Occasional wind gusts of 30+ mph will also be possible, primarily across portions of western/central Colorado where the strongest mid-level flow is forecast to overlap a deep, well-mixed boundary layer. Minor adjustments were made with this outlook cycle to reflect the latest guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday. Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns, though a couple of tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... An upper low and attendant shortwave trough, initially over the northern Rockies, will eject east/northeast across the northern Plains on Monday. This will bring a belt of enhanced mid/upper south/southwesterly flow across parts of the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over SD and lift north/northeast through evening. A trailing cold front/dryline will move across the Dakotas and portions of NE after 00z while a warm front lifts northward across parts of eastern ND and northern MN through the day. A secondary lee surface low will develop over the central High Plains, with a dryline extending south/southwest across western KS into southwest TX. ...Dakotas/Mid-MO Valley/Upper Midwest... Uncertainty over mesoscale details persists this forecast cycle, though overall model guidance continues to show better agreement. Convection appears likely to be ongoing Monday morning across the central Dakotas near the deepening surface low and northward extending frontal occlusion. This activity may be elevated, but supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings with elongated/straight hodographs noted amid 50+ kt effective shear magnitudes. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will be in place across the region and elevated convection will pose a risk for large to very large hail early in the day as storms move northward. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside across the region, with strong to extreme instability depicted in forecast guidance. Convective evolution is uncertain. The extent of morning convection could augment the northward extent of the richer boundary layer moisture and instability. Guidance also varies in regards to the evolution of the surface low, with some guidance being slower and other solutions much faster. Nevertheless, the surface low/triple point, warm front, and surface tough/cold front will be areas for concern for convective development during the day and into the afternoon. If supercells can develop and be surface-based near the warm front, an all-hazards severe risk is evident given the very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space. While initial supercells are possible during the evening along the cold front from the Mid-MO Valley into southern MN, boundary-parallel deep-layer flow and an intensifying low-level jet could result in rapid upscale growth into a bowing segment during the nighttime hours. This could result in an increase in damaging wind potential if nighttime convection can be near-surface based. ...KS/OK/TX... Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms are likely during the evening along the dryline. Instability and vertical shear will be modest, limiting longevity of stronger updrafts. Nevertheless, a deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles could support strong outflow gusts. Overall severe potential appears limited, precluding marginal probabilities at this time. ...Southeast... Moderate instability will develop amid a seasonally moist airmass near the Savannah River into GA Monday afternoon/early evening. A backdoor/wedge front is expected to push south/southwest across SC and may contribute to isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by peak heating within a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime. Vertical shear will be weak, but occasional sub-severe gusty outflows will be possible, mainly across central/southern GA. ..Leitman.. 06/28/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday. Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns, though a couple of tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... An upper low and attendant shortwave trough, initially over the northern Rockies, will eject east/northeast across the northern Plains on Monday. This will bring a belt of enhanced mid/upper south/southwesterly flow across parts of the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over SD and lift north/northeast through evening. A trailing cold front/dryline will move across the Dakotas and portions of NE after 00z while a warm front lifts northward across parts of eastern ND and northern MN through the day. A secondary lee surface low will develop over the central High Plains, with a dryline extending south/southwest across western KS into southwest TX. ...Dakotas/Mid-MO Valley/Upper Midwest... Uncertainty over mesoscale details persists this forecast cycle, though overall model guidance continues to show better agreement. Convection appears likely to be ongoing Monday morning across the central Dakotas near the deepening surface low and northward extending frontal occlusion. This activity may be elevated, but supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings with elongated/straight hodographs noted amid 50+ kt effective shear magnitudes. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will be in place across the region and elevated convection will pose a risk for large to very large hail early in the day as storms move northward. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside across the region, with strong to extreme instability depicted in forecast guidance. Convective evolution is uncertain. The extent of morning convection could augment the northward extent of the richer boundary layer moisture and instability. Guidance also varies in regards to the evolution of the surface low, with some guidance being slower and other solutions much faster. Nevertheless, the surface low/triple point, warm front, and surface tough/cold front will be areas for concern for convective development during the day and into the afternoon. If supercells can develop and be surface-based near the warm front, an all-hazards severe risk is evident given the very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space. While initial supercells are possible during the evening along the cold front from the Mid-MO Valley into southern MN, boundary-parallel deep-layer flow and an intensifying low-level jet could result in rapid upscale growth into a bowing segment during the nighttime hours. This could result in an increase in damaging wind potential if nighttime convection can be near-surface based. ...KS/OK/TX... Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms are likely during the evening along the dryline. Instability and vertical shear will be modest, limiting longevity of stronger updrafts. Nevertheless, a deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles could support strong outflow gusts. Overall severe potential appears limited, precluding marginal probabilities at this time. ...Southeast... Moderate instability will develop amid a seasonally moist airmass near the Savannah River into GA Monday afternoon/early evening. A backdoor/wedge front is expected to push south/southwest across SC and may contribute to isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by peak heating within a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime. Vertical shear will be weak, but occasional sub-severe gusty outflows will be possible, mainly across central/southern GA. ..Leitman.. 06/28/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday. Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns, though a couple of tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... An upper low and attendant shortwave trough, initially over the northern Rockies, will eject east/northeast across the northern Plains on Monday. This will bring a belt of enhanced mid/upper south/southwesterly flow across parts of the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over SD and lift north/northeast through evening. A trailing cold front/dryline will move across the Dakotas and portions of NE after 00z while a warm front lifts northward across parts of eastern ND and northern MN through the day. A secondary lee surface low will develop over the central High Plains, with a dryline extending south/southwest across western KS into southwest TX. ...Dakotas/Mid-MO Valley/Upper Midwest... Uncertainty over mesoscale details persists this forecast cycle, though overall model guidance continues to show better agreement. Convection appears likely to be ongoing Monday morning across the central Dakotas near the deepening surface low and northward extending frontal occlusion. This activity may be elevated, but supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings with elongated/straight hodographs noted amid 50+ kt effective shear magnitudes. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will be in place across the region and elevated convection will pose a risk for large to very large hail early in the day as storms move northward. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside across the region, with strong to extreme instability depicted in forecast guidance. Convective evolution is uncertain. The extent of morning convection could augment the northward extent of the richer boundary layer moisture and instability. Guidance also varies in regards to the evolution of the surface low, with some guidance being slower and other solutions much faster. Nevertheless, the surface low/triple point, warm front, and surface tough/cold front will be areas for concern for convective development during the day and into the afternoon. If supercells can develop and be surface-based near the warm front, an all-hazards severe risk is evident given the very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space. While initial supercells are possible during the evening along the cold front from the Mid-MO Valley into southern MN, boundary-parallel deep-layer flow and an intensifying low-level jet could result in rapid upscale growth into a bowing segment during the nighttime hours. This could result in an increase in damaging wind potential if nighttime convection can be near-surface based. ...KS/OK/TX... Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms are likely during the evening along the dryline. Instability and vertical shear will be modest, limiting longevity of stronger updrafts. Nevertheless, a deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles could support strong outflow gusts. Overall severe potential appears limited, precluding marginal probabilities at this time. ...Southeast... Moderate instability will develop amid a seasonally moist airmass near the Savannah River into GA Monday afternoon/early evening. A backdoor/wedge front is expected to push south/southwest across SC and may contribute to isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by peak heating within a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime. Vertical shear will be weak, but occasional sub-severe gusty outflows will be possible, mainly across central/southern GA. ..Leitman.. 06/28/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...CENTRAL-SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA...SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ***Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the West Slope and Colorado Plateau this afternoon.*** ...Afternoon Update... A targeted Extremely Critical fire weather risk area was introduced to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook. High resolution guidance depicts a combination of sustained southwesterly 25-35 mph winds and 5-10% RH to overlap exceptionally dry fuels and ongoing wildfires for several hours this afternoon. In addition, a cold front will gradually sag southward towards the Four Corners region this evening, pushing through west-central CO and southeastern UT between 23-03z. A wind shift is expected behind the front, transitioning broad southwesterly winds to north-northwesterly with sustained winds of 10-15 mph (gusts over 20 mph), lasting for a few hours before gradually diminishing overnight. RH will also increase behind the front, bringing some relief in the form of humidity recoveries to parts of eastern UT and western CO. Extreme caution should be taken across the fire weather risk areas this afternoon, as the previously mentioned weather conditions are very conducive to rapid spread/fire growth on existing wildfires and new ignitions. The rest of the forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/28/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026/ ...Synopsis... A longwave, upper-level trough will persist over the Intermountain West today, with one embedded shortwave remaining relatively stationary across the northern High Plains and a second shortwave trough pivoting southeastward through Nevada and portions of the Great Basin. Concurrently, an associated mid-level jet will continue to be oriented across the Four Corners region while a surface cold front remains relatively stationary along the western edge of the Colorado Plateau. This will promote a third consecutive day of enhanced dry/breezy conditions across portions of the eastern Great Basin and Southwest today. ...Four Corners region... A corridor of sustained southwesterly surface winds of 20-25+ mph (with gusts of 35-40+ mph possible) and minimum RH values of 5-15% is forecast this afternoon from northern Arizona into southeastern Utah, western/southwestern Colorado, and northwestern New Mexico. With this multi-day period of dry/breezy conditions exacerbating fuel dryness/receptiveness (ERCs noted in the 80-95+ percentiles) and the anticipation for poor overnight relative humidity recoveries (RHs noted to be lingering at or below 15-25% across portions of the Four Corners region as of 0530 UTC), several hours of critical fire weather conditions (with the potential for localized extremely critical conditions) are expected this afternoon across much of the Four Corners region and Colorado Plateau. A broader area of elevated fire weather concerns is also forecast across adjacent areas of the Great Basin/Southwest where winds of 15-25 mph will overlap low RH of 10-20%. Only minor adjustments were made to the drawn areas with this update to reflect the latest guidance. Recent guidance also suggests that the shortwave trough rotating through the base of the longer wavelength troughing will contribute to a southward surge of the cold front closer to the Four Corners region later tonight. For areas that experience this frontal passage, some RH recovery and a shift to northerly/northwesterly winds can be expected (with a couple hour period of sustained 10-20 mph winds possible). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...CENTRAL-SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA...SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ***Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the West Slope and Colorado Plateau this afternoon.*** ...Afternoon Update... A targeted Extremely Critical fire weather risk area was introduced to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook. High resolution guidance depicts a combination of sustained southwesterly 25-35 mph winds and 5-10% RH to overlap exceptionally dry fuels and ongoing wildfires for several hours this afternoon. In addition, a cold front will gradually sag southward towards the Four Corners region this evening, pushing through west-central CO and southeastern UT between 23-03z. A wind shift is expected behind the front, transitioning broad southwesterly winds to north-northwesterly with sustained winds of 10-15 mph (gusts over 20 mph), lasting for a few hours before gradually diminishing overnight. RH will also increase behind the front, bringing some relief in the form of humidity recoveries to parts of eastern UT and western CO. Extreme caution should be taken across the fire weather risk areas this afternoon, as the previously mentioned weather conditions are very conducive to rapid spread/fire growth on existing wildfires and new ignitions. The rest of the forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/28/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026/ ...Synopsis... A longwave, upper-level trough will persist over the Intermountain West today, with one embedded shortwave remaining relatively stationary across the northern High Plains and a second shortwave trough pivoting southeastward through Nevada and portions of the Great Basin. Concurrently, an associated mid-level jet will continue to be oriented across the Four Corners region while a surface cold front remains relatively stationary along the western edge of the Colorado Plateau. This will promote a third consecutive day of enhanced dry/breezy conditions across portions of the eastern Great Basin and Southwest today. ...Four Corners region... A corridor of sustained southwesterly surface winds of 20-25+ mph (with gusts of 35-40+ mph possible) and minimum RH values of 5-15% is forecast this afternoon from northern Arizona into southeastern Utah, western/southwestern Colorado, and northwestern New Mexico. With this multi-day period of dry/breezy conditions exacerbating fuel dryness/receptiveness (ERCs noted in the 80-95+ percentiles) and the anticipation for poor overnight relative humidity recoveries (RHs noted to be lingering at or below 15-25% across portions of the Four Corners region as of 0530 UTC), several hours of critical fire weather conditions (with the potential for localized extremely critical conditions) are expected this afternoon across much of the Four Corners region and Colorado Plateau. A broader area of elevated fire weather concerns is also forecast across adjacent areas of the Great Basin/Southwest where winds of 15-25 mph will overlap low RH of 10-20%. Only minor adjustments were made to the drawn areas with this update to reflect the latest guidance. Recent guidance also suggests that the shortwave trough rotating through the base of the longer wavelength troughing will contribute to a southward surge of the cold front closer to the Four Corners region later tonight. For areas that experience this frontal passage, some RH recovery and a shift to northerly/northwesterly winds can be expected (with a couple hour period of sustained 10-20 mph winds possible). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...CENTRAL-SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA...SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ***Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the West Slope and Colorado Plateau this afternoon.*** ...Afternoon Update... A targeted Extremely Critical fire weather risk area was introduced to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook. High resolution guidance depicts a combination of sustained southwesterly 25-35 mph winds and 5-10% RH to overlap exceptionally dry fuels and ongoing wildfires for several hours this afternoon. In addition, a cold front will gradually sag southward towards the Four Corners region this evening, pushing through west-central CO and southeastern UT between 23-03z. A wind shift is expected behind the front, transitioning broad southwesterly winds to north-northwesterly with sustained winds of 10-15 mph (gusts over 20 mph), lasting for a few hours before gradually diminishing overnight. RH will also increase behind the front, bringing some relief in the form of humidity recoveries to parts of eastern UT and western CO. Extreme caution should be taken across the fire weather risk areas this afternoon, as the previously mentioned weather conditions are very conducive to rapid spread/fire growth on existing wildfires and new ignitions. The rest of the forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/28/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026/ ...Synopsis... A longwave, upper-level trough will persist over the Intermountain West today, with one embedded shortwave remaining relatively stationary across the northern High Plains and a second shortwave trough pivoting southeastward through Nevada and portions of the Great Basin. Concurrently, an associated mid-level jet will continue to be oriented across the Four Corners region while a surface cold front remains relatively stationary along the western edge of the Colorado Plateau. This will promote a third consecutive day of enhanced dry/breezy conditions across portions of the eastern Great Basin and Southwest today. ...Four Corners region... A corridor of sustained southwesterly surface winds of 20-25+ mph (with gusts of 35-40+ mph possible) and minimum RH values of 5-15% is forecast this afternoon from northern Arizona into southeastern Utah, western/southwestern Colorado, and northwestern New Mexico. With this multi-day period of dry/breezy conditions exacerbating fuel dryness/receptiveness (ERCs noted in the 80-95+ percentiles) and the anticipation for poor overnight relative humidity recoveries (RHs noted to be lingering at or below 15-25% across portions of the Four Corners region as of 0530 UTC), several hours of critical fire weather conditions (with the potential for localized extremely critical conditions) are expected this afternoon across much of the Four Corners region and Colorado Plateau. A broader area of elevated fire weather concerns is also forecast across adjacent areas of the Great Basin/Southwest where winds of 15-25 mph will overlap low RH of 10-20%. Only minor adjustments were made to the drawn areas with this update to reflect the latest guidance. Recent guidance also suggests that the shortwave trough rotating through the base of the longer wavelength troughing will contribute to a southward surge of the cold front closer to the Four Corners region later tonight. For areas that experience this frontal passage, some RH recovery and a shift to northerly/northwesterly winds can be expected (with a couple hour period of sustained 10-20 mph winds possible). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...CAROLINAS...AND A PART OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected mainly tonight across the Dakotas. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards. Thunderstorms capable of scattered wind damage are possible in parts of the Carolinas. ...Dakotas/northern Plains... A belt of south-southwesterly mid-level flow near 50 kt will be maintained from Colorado to the Dakotas, east of the broad closed low over the northern Great Basin/Rockies. A separate lee cyclone is expected to form in the vicinity of northeast Colorado this afternoon and then progress northeastward across Nebraska/South Dakota overnight. A few storms will be possible in North Dakota during the afternoon with perhaps an isolated severe risk developing, but the primary regional severe risk is expected tonight. Much of the severe threat will likely focus after dark immediately north of the lee cyclone into South Dakota as low-level moisture steadily spreads west-northwestward. This increasing moisture and forcing for ascent preceding the surface cyclone (and subtle embedded speed maxima aloft) will likely support thunderstorm development overnight across western South Dakota into southern North Dakota. The environment will favor supercells, which will tend to be elevated, and small thunderstorm clusters capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... A bowing cluster has weakened and tended to grow downscale this morning but otherwise persists across eastern Iowa at midday. Some redevelopment/re-intensification could occur on the cluster's southern periphery near a warm front. However, this is highly uncertain given the increasing mid-level capping/EML advection the remainder of the night. Later tonight, a zone of low-level warm advection will be focused across Wisconsin along the northeast edge of the warm elevated mixed layer. Sufficient moistening above the surface and large CAPE will favor the potential for at least isolated large hail/strong gusts with mostly elevated storms tonight. ...Carolinas and far southern Virginia this afternoon/evening... A convectively augmented mid-level disturbance over the southern Appalachians will move southeastward into the Piedmont by this afternoon. An airmass sampled by area 12 UTC raobs (PW near 2 inches) will heat/destabilize to the south of a patch of clouds that are more prevalent over western North Carolina. Steepening low-level lapse rates and a belt of slightly stronger westerly 3-6 km flow (30 kt) may act to loosely organize cold pools of developing thunderstorm clusters. Isolated to scattered wind damage (50-60 mph gusts) will be the primary hazard with the more intense water-loaded thunderstorm cores until around sunset. ...West Texas late this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating and deep mixing along a sharpening dryline will allow high-based thunderstorm development from late afternoon through late evening. Flow aloft will be weak, but inverted-V profiles will yield isolated severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 06/28/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...CAROLINAS...AND A PART OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected mainly tonight across the Dakotas. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards. Thunderstorms capable of scattered wind damage are possible in parts of the Carolinas. ...Dakotas/northern Plains... A belt of south-southwesterly mid-level flow near 50 kt will be maintained from Colorado to the Dakotas, east of the broad closed low over the northern Great Basin/Rockies. A separate lee cyclone is expected to form in the vicinity of northeast Colorado this afternoon and then progress northeastward across Nebraska/South Dakota overnight. A few storms will be possible in North Dakota during the afternoon with perhaps an isolated severe risk developing, but the primary regional severe risk is expected tonight. Much of the severe threat will likely focus after dark immediately north of the lee cyclone into South Dakota as low-level moisture steadily spreads west-northwestward. This increasing moisture and forcing for ascent preceding the surface cyclone (and subtle embedded speed maxima aloft) will likely support thunderstorm development overnight across western South Dakota into southern North Dakota. The environment will favor supercells, which will tend to be elevated, and small thunderstorm clusters capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... A bowing cluster has weakened and tended to grow downscale this morning but otherwise persists across eastern Iowa at midday. Some redevelopment/re-intensification could occur on the cluster's southern periphery near a warm front. However, this is highly uncertain given the increasing mid-level capping/EML advection the remainder of the night. Later tonight, a zone of low-level warm advection will be focused across Wisconsin along the northeast edge of the warm elevated mixed layer. Sufficient moistening above the surface and large CAPE will favor the potential for at least isolated large hail/strong gusts with mostly elevated storms tonight. ...Carolinas and far southern Virginia this afternoon/evening... A convectively augmented mid-level disturbance over the southern Appalachians will move southeastward into the Piedmont by this afternoon. An airmass sampled by area 12 UTC raobs (PW near 2 inches) will heat/destabilize to the south of a patch of clouds that are more prevalent over western North Carolina. Steepening low-level lapse rates and a belt of slightly stronger westerly 3-6 km flow (30 kt) may act to loosely organize cold pools of developing thunderstorm clusters. Isolated to scattered wind damage (50-60 mph gusts) will be the primary hazard with the more intense water-loaded thunderstorm cores until around sunset. ...West Texas late this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating and deep mixing along a sharpening dryline will allow high-based thunderstorm development from late afternoon through late evening. Flow aloft will be weak, but inverted-V profiles will yield isolated severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 06/28/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...CAROLINAS...AND A PART OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected mainly tonight across the Dakotas. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards. Thunderstorms capable of scattered wind damage are possible in parts of the Carolinas. ...Dakotas/northern Plains... A belt of south-southwesterly mid-level flow near 50 kt will be maintained from Colorado to the Dakotas, east of the broad closed low over the northern Great Basin/Rockies. A separate lee cyclone is expected to form in the vicinity of northeast Colorado this afternoon and then progress northeastward across Nebraska/South Dakota overnight. A few storms will be possible in North Dakota during the afternoon with perhaps an isolated severe risk developing, but the primary regional severe risk is expected tonight. Much of the severe threat will likely focus after dark immediately north of the lee cyclone into South Dakota as low-level moisture steadily spreads west-northwestward. This increasing moisture and forcing for ascent preceding the surface cyclone (and subtle embedded speed maxima aloft) will likely support thunderstorm development overnight across western South Dakota into southern North Dakota. The environment will favor supercells, which will tend to be elevated, and small thunderstorm clusters capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... A bowing cluster has weakened and tended to grow downscale this morning but otherwise persists across eastern Iowa at midday. Some redevelopment/re-intensification could occur on the cluster's southern periphery near a warm front. However, this is highly uncertain given the increasing mid-level capping/EML advection the remainder of the night. Later tonight, a zone of low-level warm advection will be focused across Wisconsin along the northeast edge of the warm elevated mixed layer. Sufficient moistening above the surface and large CAPE will favor the potential for at least isolated large hail/strong gusts with mostly elevated storms tonight. ...Carolinas and far southern Virginia this afternoon/evening... A convectively augmented mid-level disturbance over the southern Appalachians will move southeastward into the Piedmont by this afternoon. An airmass sampled by area 12 UTC raobs (PW near 2 inches) will heat/destabilize to the south of a patch of clouds that are more prevalent over western North Carolina. Steepening low-level lapse rates and a belt of slightly stronger westerly 3-6 km flow (30 kt) may act to loosely organize cold pools of developing thunderstorm clusters. Isolated to scattered wind damage (50-60 mph gusts) will be the primary hazard with the more intense water-loaded thunderstorm cores until around sunset. ...West Texas late this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating and deep mixing along a sharpening dryline will allow high-based thunderstorm development from late afternoon through late evening. Flow aloft will be weak, but inverted-V profiles will yield isolated severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 06/28/2026 Read more

MD 1366 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1366 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Areas affected...parts of Central into Eastern Iowa into northwest Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 281514Z - 281715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Convective trends are being monitored for a possible increase in damaging wind potential by late morning into early afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is possible. DISCUSSION...On the southern flank of a long-lived MCS, a more intense storm has recently developed near Ames, IA, within a pronounced low-level warm advection pattern, per KDMX VWP. Mesoanalysis suggests that the storm is located in close proximity to a stationary front that extends southeast through southeast IA into central IL. The air mass south of the boundary is very moist with the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates yielding a moderately unstable environment with MLCAPE upwards of 2000 J/kg. The main uncertainty is whether the current storms will become fully rooted within the boundary layer given the expected strengthening of the cap at the base of an EML through the day. The 12Z CAMs offer various scenarios with regard to convective evolution this morning but by afternoon largely agree that the strengthening cap will become prohibitive to surface-based storm development. However, in the event this more recent storm development can establish a cold pool, the background environment appears supportive of damaging wind potential in addition to some large hail threat. ..Mead/Guyer.. 06/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX... LAT...LON 42179345 42759297 42889227 42338988 41938972 41598995 41359034 41329113 41679241 42179345 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAKOTAS AND PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND IOWA AND PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this morning over northern Iowa and southern Minnesota, and mainly tonight across the Dakotas. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards. Thunderstorms capable of scattered wind damage are possible in parts of the Carolinas. ...Dakotas to IA/WI through tonight... Radar mosaic this morning shows a bow echo moving eastward along the MN/IA border primarily north of a buoyancy gradient/warm frontal zone. Occasional severe gusts (60-70 mph) have been observed with this MCS the past couple of hours. Expecting more of an east-southeastward motion with the linear system with a continued risk for wind damage before perhaps weakening near the MS River towards midday/early afternoon. Farther west, a belt of south-southwesterly midlevel flow near 50 kt will be maintained from CO to the Dakotas, east of the broad closed low over the northern Great Basin/Rockies. A separate lee cyclone is expected to form in the vicinity of northeast CO this afternoon and then progress northeastward across NE/SD overnight. In the wake of the morning storms, richer low-level moisture will advect northward in tandem with a warm front. Model guidance continues to delay storm development for much of the day as an EML overspreads a destabilizing airmass across the north-central US. A few storms will be possible in ND during the afternoon with perhaps an isolated severe risk developing. Much of the severe threat will likely focus after dark immediately north of the lee cyclone into SD. Westward advection of richer moisture and ascent preceding the surface cyclone (and subtle embedded speed maxima aloft) will likely support elevated thunderstorm development overnight across western SD into southern ND. The environment will favor elevated supercells and small thunderstorm clusters capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Farther east, a zone of low-level warm advection will be focused across WI by late evening/early tonight along the northeast edge of the warm elevated mixed layer. Sufficient moistening above the surface and large CAPE will favor the potential for at least isolated large hail/strong gusts with largely elevated storms tonight. ...Carolinas/southern VA this afternoon/evening... A convectively augmented mid-level disturbance over the southern Appalachians will move into the Piedmont by this afternoon. A moist airmass sampled by area 12 UTC raobs (PW near 2 inches) will heat/destabilize to the south of a patch of clouds more prevalent over western NC. By early to mid afternoon, steepened 0-2 km lapse rates and a belt of slightly stronger westerly 3-6 km flow (30 kt) may act to loosely organize cold pools of developing thunderstorm clusters. Isolated to scattered wind damage (50-60 mph gusts) will be the primary hazard with the more intense water-loaded thunderstorm cores. ...West TX late this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating and deep mixing along a sharpening dryline will allow high-based thunderstorm development from late afternoon through late evening. Flow aloft will be weak, but inverted-V profiles will favor isolated severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph. ..Smith/Jewell.. 06/28/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAKOTAS AND PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND IOWA AND PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this morning over northern Iowa and southern Minnesota, and mainly tonight across the Dakotas. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards. Thunderstorms capable of scattered wind damage are possible in parts of the Carolinas. ...Dakotas to IA/WI through tonight... Radar mosaic this morning shows a bow echo moving eastward along the MN/IA border primarily north of a buoyancy gradient/warm frontal zone. Occasional severe gusts (60-70 mph) have been observed with this MCS the past couple of hours. Expecting more of an east-southeastward motion with the linear system with a continued risk for wind damage before perhaps weakening near the MS River towards midday/early afternoon. Farther west, a belt of south-southwesterly midlevel flow near 50 kt will be maintained from CO to the Dakotas, east of the broad closed low over the northern Great Basin/Rockies. A separate lee cyclone is expected to form in the vicinity of northeast CO this afternoon and then progress northeastward across NE/SD overnight. In the wake of the morning storms, richer low-level moisture will advect northward in tandem with a warm front. Model guidance continues to delay storm development for much of the day as an EML overspreads a destabilizing airmass across the north-central US. A few storms will be possible in ND during the afternoon with perhaps an isolated severe risk developing. Much of the severe threat will likely focus after dark immediately north of the lee cyclone into SD. Westward advection of richer moisture and ascent preceding the surface cyclone (and subtle embedded speed maxima aloft) will likely support elevated thunderstorm development overnight across western SD into southern ND. The environment will favor elevated supercells and small thunderstorm clusters capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Farther east, a zone of low-level warm advection will be focused across WI by late evening/early tonight along the northeast edge of the warm elevated mixed layer. Sufficient moistening above the surface and large CAPE will favor the potential for at least isolated large hail/strong gusts with largely elevated storms tonight. ...Carolinas/southern VA this afternoon/evening... A convectively augmented mid-level disturbance over the southern Appalachians will move into the Piedmont by this afternoon. A moist airmass sampled by area 12 UTC raobs (PW near 2 inches) will heat/destabilize to the south of a patch of clouds more prevalent over western NC. By early to mid afternoon, steepened 0-2 km lapse rates and a belt of slightly stronger westerly 3-6 km flow (30 kt) may act to loosely organize cold pools of developing thunderstorm clusters. Isolated to scattered wind damage (50-60 mph gusts) will be the primary hazard with the more intense water-loaded thunderstorm cores. ...West TX late this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating and deep mixing along a sharpening dryline will allow high-based thunderstorm development from late afternoon through late evening. Flow aloft will be weak, but inverted-V profiles will favor isolated severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph. ..Smith/Jewell.. 06/28/2026 Read more

MD 1365 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 411... FOR FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1365 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Areas affected...far southern Minnesota into northern and east-central Iowa Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 411... Valid 281234Z - 281430Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 411 continues. SUMMARY...A line of storms will continue to produce strong to severe wind gusts over north-central Iowa, a portion of far south-central Minnesota, and perhaps into more of central/east-central Iowa later this morning. DISCUSSION...A long-lived MCS continues to move east across southern MN and northern IA, with the larger/stronger storms currently over north-central IA. This area is within the instability gradient, with access to a more favorable inflow air mass. While surface temperatures are currently cooler into eastern IA, the favorable southwesterly low-level jet should maintain theta-e advection this morning, fueling the MCS. A severe gust of 68 mph was measured earlier at Spencer, IA with the stronger southern part of the bow, and recent radar trends also indicate sporadic hail over 1.00" diameter is likely. Additional storm cores within the warm advection zone just south/east of the main bow have also increased recently, and brief hail may occur with that activity. Otherwise, the threat of severe wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph may gradually shift east/southeast over IA, as the southern flank favors the more unstable air mass along and west of the instability gradient. Storm gusts will also remain possible over far southern MN this morning, despite weaker instability as the system is quite organized. ..Jewell.. 06/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... LAT...LON 44629430 44479362 43919273 43049210 42149175 41869199 41699247 41819336 42269390 42519446 42639495 42869507 43289445 43789414 44069412 44629430 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0411 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 411 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E SUX TO 40 WNW SLB TO 20 W SPW TO 20 NNW SPW TO 25 E OTG TO 30 NE OTG TO 30 WSW RWF. ..JEWELL..06/28/26 ATTN...WFO...FSD...DMX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 411 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-025-033-035-041-059-063-069-079-081-083-091-109-141-143- 147-151-187-189-195-197-281240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CALHOUN CERRO GORDO CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON EMMET FRANKLIN HAMILTON HANCOCK HARDIN HUMBOLDT KOSSUTH O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PALO ALTO POCAHONTAS WEBSTER WINNEBAGO WORTH WRIGHT MNC013-033-043-047-063-091-161-165-281240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH COTTONWOOD FARIBAULT FREEBORN JACKSON MARTIN WASECA WATONWAN Read more

WW 0411 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 411 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E SUX TO 40 WNW SLB TO 20 W SPW TO 20 NNW SPW TO 25 E OTG TO 30 NE OTG TO 30 WSW RWF. ..JEWELL..06/28/26 ATTN...WFO...FSD...DMX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 411 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-025-033-035-041-059-063-069-079-081-083-091-109-141-143- 147-151-187-189-195-197-281240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CALHOUN CERRO GORDO CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON EMMET FRANKLIN HAMILTON HANCOCK HARDIN HUMBOLDT KOSSUTH O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PALO ALTO POCAHONTAS WEBSTER WINNEBAGO WORTH WRIGHT MNC013-033-043-047-063-091-161-165-281240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH COTTONWOOD FARIBAULT FREEBORN JACKSON MARTIN WASECA WATONWAN Read more

WW 411 SEVERE TSTM IA MN 280950Z - 281400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 411 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 450 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest into Northern Iowa Southwest into Southern Minnesota * Effective this Sunday morning from 450 AM until 900 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A squall line will move into the Watch area early this morning and likely move east across the Watch. Scattered damaging gusts (60 to 70 mph) are possible with the more intense portions of the squall line. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west southwest of Worthington MN to 10 miles east southeast of Mason City IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 410... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Smith Read more

WW 0411 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0411 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Relatively little change is expected in the upper-level pattern from mid to late this week. A broad trough in the West will bring southwesterly flow across the Rockies and parts of the Plains. In the East, an upper ridge will persist. During the weekend, models are in general agreement that the upper ridge will flatten and broaden across the southern U.S. This pattern will favor the maintenance of a very moist airmass within parts of the Plains into the Midwest and Southeast. The lack of more notable mid-level and surface features decrease predictability with regard to where severe convection may occur. That being said, subtle surface boundaries/shortwave troughs may promote convective development each day within parts of the Plains/Midwest. Trends in model guidance will continue to be monitored, but confidence remains low in placing severe probabilities. Read more