Storm Prediction Center

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge is forecast to pass eastward through the north-central U.S. on Thursday. A shortwave trough is forecast to move into the Great Plains, with moisture and instability located in the central Plains. Although most of the airmass is forecast to be capped during the day, a few storms with an isolated severe threat will be possible in areas that heat up the most. On Friday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the Great Plains, as a moisture and instability advects northeastward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible within this airmass in the afternoon and evening. Hail and isolated severe gusts would be the primary threats. By Saturday, a wide corridor of moderate instability is forecast to be in place over the Great Plains. A shortwave trough is forecast to move into the central U.S. during the afternoon. Ahead of the shortwave, scattered thunderstorms will be possible from north Texas northward into Nebraska. Along the western edge of the instability corridor, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear are forecast. The environment could support large hail, damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat in the southern and central Plains where instability, shear and lift are forecast to become maximized. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... On Sunday, mid-level flow is forecast to be southwesterly over the central U.S., as a shortwave trough moves into the Great Lakes. Another shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains. Further south in the southern and central Plains, moderate to strong instability is forecast to be in place by midday. Thunderstorm development is expected over parts of this unstable airmass in the afternoon and evening. Although uncertainty exists concerning the location of the greatest severe threat, some solutions suggest potential for a large complex of storms from eastern Kansas into Missouri. At this time, too much uncertainty exists for the addition of a severe threat area. On Monday, a front is forecast to advance southeastward across the central U.S. Ahead of this front, isolated severe storms will be possible near an axis of instability in the afternoon and evening. However, model spread is relatively large concerning the timing of features at this extended range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge is forecast to pass eastward through the north-central U.S. on Thursday. A shortwave trough is forecast to move into the Great Plains, with moisture and instability located in the central Plains. Although most of the airmass is forecast to be capped during the day, a few storms with an isolated severe threat will be possible in areas that heat up the most. On Friday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the Great Plains, as a moisture and instability advects northeastward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible within this airmass in the afternoon and evening. Hail and isolated severe gusts would be the primary threats. By Saturday, a wide corridor of moderate instability is forecast to be in place over the Great Plains. A shortwave trough is forecast to move into the central U.S. during the afternoon. Ahead of the shortwave, scattered thunderstorms will be possible from north Texas northward into Nebraska. Along the western edge of the instability corridor, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear are forecast. The environment could support large hail, damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat in the southern and central Plains where instability, shear and lift are forecast to become maximized. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... On Sunday, mid-level flow is forecast to be southwesterly over the central U.S., as a shortwave trough moves into the Great Lakes. Another shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains. Further south in the southern and central Plains, moderate to strong instability is forecast to be in place by midday. Thunderstorm development is expected over parts of this unstable airmass in the afternoon and evening. Although uncertainty exists concerning the location of the greatest severe threat, some solutions suggest potential for a large complex of storms from eastern Kansas into Missouri. At this time, too much uncertainty exists for the addition of a severe threat area. On Monday, a front is forecast to advance southeastward across the central U.S. Ahead of this front, isolated severe storms will be possible near an axis of instability in the afternoon and evening. However, model spread is relatively large concerning the timing of features at this extended range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge is forecast to pass eastward through the north-central U.S. on Thursday. A shortwave trough is forecast to move into the Great Plains, with moisture and instability located in the central Plains. Although most of the airmass is forecast to be capped during the day, a few storms with an isolated severe threat will be possible in areas that heat up the most. On Friday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the Great Plains, as a moisture and instability advects northeastward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible within this airmass in the afternoon and evening. Hail and isolated severe gusts would be the primary threats. By Saturday, a wide corridor of moderate instability is forecast to be in place over the Great Plains. A shortwave trough is forecast to move into the central U.S. during the afternoon. Ahead of the shortwave, scattered thunderstorms will be possible from north Texas northward into Nebraska. Along the western edge of the instability corridor, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear are forecast. The environment could support large hail, damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat in the southern and central Plains where instability, shear and lift are forecast to become maximized. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... On Sunday, mid-level flow is forecast to be southwesterly over the central U.S., as a shortwave trough moves into the Great Lakes. Another shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains. Further south in the southern and central Plains, moderate to strong instability is forecast to be in place by midday. Thunderstorm development is expected over parts of this unstable airmass in the afternoon and evening. Although uncertainty exists concerning the location of the greatest severe threat, some solutions suggest potential for a large complex of storms from eastern Kansas into Missouri. At this time, too much uncertainty exists for the addition of a severe threat area. On Monday, a front is forecast to advance southeastward across the central U.S. Ahead of this front, isolated severe storms will be possible near an axis of instability in the afternoon and evening. However, model spread is relatively large concerning the timing of features at this extended range. Read more

WW 0198 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 198 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE CRP TO 15 ESE VCT TO 35 NNW PSX TO 25 WSW HOU TO 35 NW HOU TO 20 NW UTS. ..WENDT..05/11/26 ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 198 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC039-057-157-167-201-239-321-339-481-110840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRAZORIA CALHOUN FORT BEND GALVESTON HARRIS JACKSON MATAGORDA MONTGOMERY WHARTON GMZ237-330-110840- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE SAN ANTONIO MESQUITE AND ESPIRITU SANTO BAYS MATAGORDA BAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 198 SEVERE TSTM TX CW 110330Z - 111000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 198 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South-Central and Southeast Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 1030 PM until 500 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A nearly continuous line of storms, located near and west of I-35 in south-central Texas to the Rio Grande River, will continue generally southeastward with damaging winds and some hail as the primary hazards into the overnight. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles north northeast of Houston TX to 25 miles north northwest of Laredo TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 197... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0703 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 198... FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0703 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026 Areas affected...Southeast Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 198... Valid 110631Z - 110800Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 198 continues. SUMMARY...A weak MCV will promote strong to marginally severe storms capable of wind damage and small hail. DISCUSSION...The remaining portion of stronger activity within WW 198 is northwest of Houston in close proximity to a weak MCV feature. Cooler outflow is noted north of Houston, but a very moist and weakly capped airmass is just south of the outflow boundary. Convection along and south of the boundary will remain capable of damaging winds and small hail. ..Wendt.. 05/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX... LAT...LON 29359638 30159629 30559633 30569591 30519535 30029513 29639510 29339545 29359638 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible on Wednesday across the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. ...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday. At the surface, a low will move eastward across the lower Great Lakes, as a cold front advances east-southeastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s F will contribute to weak destabilization by afternoon. MLCAPE near the instability axis is forecast to peak around 500 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range. This should support a marginal severe threat during the afternoon as low-level lapse rates become steep. A few isolated severe wind gusts will be possible. ..Broyles.. 05/11/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible on Wednesday across the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. ...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday. At the surface, a low will move eastward across the lower Great Lakes, as a cold front advances east-southeastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s F will contribute to weak destabilization by afternoon. MLCAPE near the instability axis is forecast to peak around 500 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range. This should support a marginal severe threat during the afternoon as low-level lapse rates become steep. A few isolated severe wind gusts will be possible. ..Broyles.. 05/11/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible on Wednesday across the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. ...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday. At the surface, a low will move eastward across the lower Great Lakes, as a cold front advances east-southeastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s F will contribute to weak destabilization by afternoon. MLCAPE near the instability axis is forecast to peak around 500 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range. This should support a marginal severe threat during the afternoon as low-level lapse rates become steep. A few isolated severe wind gusts will be possible. ..Broyles.. 05/11/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible on Wednesday across the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. ...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday. At the surface, a low will move eastward across the lower Great Lakes, as a cold front advances east-southeastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s F will contribute to weak destabilization by afternoon. MLCAPE near the instability axis is forecast to peak around 500 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range. This should support a marginal severe threat during the afternoon as low-level lapse rates become steep. A few isolated severe wind gusts will be possible. ..Broyles.. 05/11/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible on Wednesday across the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. ...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday. At the surface, a low will move eastward across the lower Great Lakes, as a cold front advances east-southeastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s F will contribute to weak destabilization by afternoon. MLCAPE near the instability axis is forecast to peak around 500 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range. This should support a marginal severe threat during the afternoon as low-level lapse rates become steep. A few isolated severe wind gusts will be possible. ..Broyles.. 05/11/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... On the backside of a robust midlevel trough and attendant surface low moving eastward from the northern Plains into the upper Midwest and eventually the Great Lakes, strong deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread a well-mixed post-frontal air mass over the upper/middle MO Valley during the day. While RH reductions will be modest in the post-frontal air mass (around 25-30 percent), 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will compensate and support elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions -- given dry/receptive fuels. If guidance trends any lower with RH reductions, a targeted Critical area could eventually be warranted. ..Weinman.. 05/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... On the backside of a robust midlevel trough and attendant surface low moving eastward from the northern Plains into the upper Midwest and eventually the Great Lakes, strong deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread a well-mixed post-frontal air mass over the upper/middle MO Valley during the day. While RH reductions will be modest in the post-frontal air mass (around 25-30 percent), 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will compensate and support elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions -- given dry/receptive fuels. If guidance trends any lower with RH reductions, a targeted Critical area could eventually be warranted. ..Weinman.. 05/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... On the backside of a robust midlevel trough and attendant surface low moving eastward from the northern Plains into the upper Midwest and eventually the Great Lakes, strong deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread a well-mixed post-frontal air mass over the upper/middle MO Valley during the day. While RH reductions will be modest in the post-frontal air mass (around 25-30 percent), 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will compensate and support elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions -- given dry/receptive fuels. If guidance trends any lower with RH reductions, a targeted Critical area could eventually be warranted. ..Weinman.. 05/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... On the backside of a robust midlevel trough and attendant surface low moving eastward from the northern Plains into the upper Midwest and eventually the Great Lakes, strong deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread a well-mixed post-frontal air mass over the upper/middle MO Valley during the day. While RH reductions will be modest in the post-frontal air mass (around 25-30 percent), 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will compensate and support elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions -- given dry/receptive fuels. If guidance trends any lower with RH reductions, a targeted Critical area could eventually be warranted. ..Weinman.. 05/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered over the West, a robust midlevel trough and accompanying 70-kt westerly jet streak will advance eastward across MT and ND during peak heating. In the low-levels, a lee trough will extend southward along the northern/central Plains, before being overtaken by a cold front during the evening. ...Northern and Central Plains... Within the base of the midlevel trough, strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the northern High Plains during the day. Here, downslope flow trajectories and diurnal heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer along/west of the lee trough -- characterized by surface temperatures in the middle/upper 70s and 20-25 percent RH. Despite the somewhat marginal RH reductions, downward transport of the high-momentum flow and a tight pressure gradient will contribute to 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). The greatest overlap of these strong/gusty winds and low RH atop receptive fuels is expected over parts of eastern MT into west-central ND -- where Critical highlights are in place. A north-northwesterly surface wind shift will accompany the frontal passage during the evening hours, though substantial post-frontal RH recovery is expected. Farther south along the lee trough into the central Plains, more substantial downslope warming/drying will yield temperatures in the lower/middle 80s and 15-20 percent RH. These warm/dry conditions combined with around 15 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions, given critically dry fuels here as well. ..Weinman.. 05/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered over the West, a robust midlevel trough and accompanying 70-kt westerly jet streak will advance eastward across MT and ND during peak heating. In the low-levels, a lee trough will extend southward along the northern/central Plains, before being overtaken by a cold front during the evening. ...Northern and Central Plains... Within the base of the midlevel trough, strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the northern High Plains during the day. Here, downslope flow trajectories and diurnal heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer along/west of the lee trough -- characterized by surface temperatures in the middle/upper 70s and 20-25 percent RH. Despite the somewhat marginal RH reductions, downward transport of the high-momentum flow and a tight pressure gradient will contribute to 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). The greatest overlap of these strong/gusty winds and low RH atop receptive fuels is expected over parts of eastern MT into west-central ND -- where Critical highlights are in place. A north-northwesterly surface wind shift will accompany the frontal passage during the evening hours, though substantial post-frontal RH recovery is expected. Farther south along the lee trough into the central Plains, more substantial downslope warming/drying will yield temperatures in the lower/middle 80s and 15-20 percent RH. These warm/dry conditions combined with around 15 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions, given critically dry fuels here as well. ..Weinman.. 05/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered over the West, a robust midlevel trough and accompanying 70-kt westerly jet streak will advance eastward across MT and ND during peak heating. In the low-levels, a lee trough will extend southward along the northern/central Plains, before being overtaken by a cold front during the evening. ...Northern and Central Plains... Within the base of the midlevel trough, strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the northern High Plains during the day. Here, downslope flow trajectories and diurnal heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer along/west of the lee trough -- characterized by surface temperatures in the middle/upper 70s and 20-25 percent RH. Despite the somewhat marginal RH reductions, downward transport of the high-momentum flow and a tight pressure gradient will contribute to 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). The greatest overlap of these strong/gusty winds and low RH atop receptive fuels is expected over parts of eastern MT into west-central ND -- where Critical highlights are in place. A north-northwesterly surface wind shift will accompany the frontal passage during the evening hours, though substantial post-frontal RH recovery is expected. Farther south along the lee trough into the central Plains, more substantial downslope warming/drying will yield temperatures in the lower/middle 80s and 15-20 percent RH. These warm/dry conditions combined with around 15 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions, given critically dry fuels here as well. ..Weinman.. 05/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered over the West, a robust midlevel trough and accompanying 70-kt westerly jet streak will advance eastward across MT and ND during peak heating. In the low-levels, a lee trough will extend southward along the northern/central Plains, before being overtaken by a cold front during the evening. ...Northern and Central Plains... Within the base of the midlevel trough, strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the northern High Plains during the day. Here, downslope flow trajectories and diurnal heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer along/west of the lee trough -- characterized by surface temperatures in the middle/upper 70s and 20-25 percent RH. Despite the somewhat marginal RH reductions, downward transport of the high-momentum flow and a tight pressure gradient will contribute to 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). The greatest overlap of these strong/gusty winds and low RH atop receptive fuels is expected over parts of eastern MT into west-central ND -- where Critical highlights are in place. A north-northwesterly surface wind shift will accompany the frontal passage during the evening hours, though substantial post-frontal RH recovery is expected. Farther south along the lee trough into the central Plains, more substantial downslope warming/drying will yield temperatures in the lower/middle 80s and 15-20 percent RH. These warm/dry conditions combined with around 15 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions, given critically dry fuels here as well. ..Weinman.. 05/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0198 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 198 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW LRD TO 25 E LRD TO 10 NNW ALI TO 20 NE NIR TO 30 N VCT TO 55 N PSX TO 50 S CLL TO 35 NNE CLL. ..WENDT..05/11/26 ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 198 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-015-039-057-131-157-167-185-201-239-249-273-321-339-355- 391-409-469-473-479-481-110740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS AUSTIN BRAZORIA CALHOUN DUVAL FORT BEND GALVESTON GRIMES HARRIS JACKSON JIM WELLS KLEBERG MATAGORDA MONTGOMERY NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WALLER WEBB WHARTON GMZ231-232-236-237-330-110740- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE BAFFIN BAY AND UPPER LAGUNA MADRE CORPUS CHRISTI AND NUECES BAYS Read more