Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA...SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A longwave, upper-level trough will persist over the Intermountain West today, with one embedded shortwave remaining relatively stationary across the northern High Plains and a second shortwave trough pivoting southeastward through Nevada and portions of the Great Basin. Concurrently, an associated mid-level jet will continue to be oriented across the Four Corners region while a surface cold front remains relatively stationary along the western edge of the Colorado Plateau. This will promote a third consecutive day of enhanced dry/breezy conditions across portions of the eastern Great Basin and Southwest today. ...Four Corners region... A corridor of sustained southwesterly surface winds of 20-25+ mph (with gusts of 35-40+ mph possible) and minimum RH values of 5-15% is forecast this afternoon from northern Arizona into southeastern Utah, western/southwestern Colorado, and northwestern New Mexico. With this multi-day period of dry/breezy conditions exacerbating fuel dryness/receptiveness (ERCs noted in the 80-95+ percentiles) and the anticipation for poor overnight relative humidity recoveries (RHs noted to be lingering at or below 15-25% across portions of the Four Corners region as of 0530 UTC), several hours of critical fire weather conditions (with the potential for localized extremely critical conditions) are expected this afternoon across much of the Four Corners region and Colorado Plateau. A broader area of elevated fire weather concerns is also forecast across adjacent areas of the Great Basin/Southwest where winds of 15-25 mph will overlap low RH of 10-20%. Only minor adjustments were made to the drawn areas with this update to reflect the latest guidance. Recent guidance also suggests that the shortwave trough rotating through the base of the longer wavelength troughing will contribute to a southward surge of the cold front closer to the Four Corners region later tonight. For areas that experience this frontal passage, some RH recovery and a shift to northerly/northwesterly winds can be expected (with a couple hour period of sustained 10-20 mph winds possible). ..Chalmers.. 06/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0410 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 410 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE VTN TO 25 SSW 9V9 TO 25 SE 9V9 TO 30 WNW MHE TO 10 NW HON. ..JEWELL..06/28/26 ATTN...WFO...LBF...FSD...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 410 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC015-031-103-280740- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYD CHERRY KEYA PAHA SDC003-009-023-027-035-043-053-061-067-073-079-083-087-097-099- 101-111-125-127-135-280740- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AURORA BON HOMME CHARLES MIX CLAY DAVISON DOUGLAS GREGORY HANSON HUTCHINSON JERAULD LAKE LINCOLN MCCOOK MINER MINNEHAHA MOODY SANBORN TURNER UNION YANKTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0410 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 410 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE VTN TO 25 SSW 9V9 TO 25 SE 9V9 TO 30 WNW MHE TO 10 NW HON. ..JEWELL..06/28/26 ATTN...WFO...LBF...FSD...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 410 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC015-031-103-280740- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYD CHERRY KEYA PAHA SDC003-009-023-027-035-043-053-061-067-073-079-083-087-097-099- 101-111-125-127-135-280740- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AURORA BON HOMME CHARLES MIX CLAY DAVISON DOUGLAS GREGORY HANSON HUTCHINSON JERAULD LAKE LINCOLN MCCOOK MINER MINNEHAHA MOODY SANBORN TURNER UNION YANKTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday. Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns, though a couple of tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will evolve out of the upper trough in the northern Rockies. The timing of this feature remains a bit uncertain. The strongest mid-level ascent will likely occur in eastern Dakotas/western Minnesota after 00Z. A surface low will deepen within the eastern Dakotas and lift north-northeast with time. A very moist airmass will be in place between a cold front in the central Plains and a warm front in the Upper Midwest. Upper level ridging will continue in the Midwest/East with modest breakdown of this ridge expected in the Dakotas/Minnesota. ...Eastern Dakotas into northern Minnesota... The forecast remains rather uncertain across these regions. At least weak convection appears probable within parts of the Dakotas into western Minnesota during the morning. How this activity evolves will play a role in where afternoon severe potential will exist. Model agreement has marginally increased with regard to the evolution of the shortwave trough in the northern Plains and the surface low migrating north-northeast near the Red River. Even so, upper-level ridging that will persist through much of the period limits confidence in if and how many storms will develop during the afternoon/early evening. Should sufficient destabilization occur near the surface low, a portion of eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota appear to have the greatest relative potential for severe storms. All severe hazards would be possible given the 50+ kt of effective shear, 4000+ J/kg MLCAPE, and locally stronger low-level shear. Model solutions for activity near the surface low and areas southward into eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota are highly disparate. The ECMWF would suggest some potential for an MCS to develop near the surface low and track through parts of northern/east-central Minnesota along the buoyancy gradient. This particular scenario has been fairly consistent along with the depiction of a more southern surface low/upper trough. Solutions such as the RRFS would suggest a supercell or two could occur farther south along the South Dakota/Minnesota border. ...Nebraska into southern/central Minnesota... Though the timing of development differs, there has been an increasing convective signal trend in recent guidance along the cold front. There is at least some potential for this to occur during late afternoon with a window for storms to be surface based, but it is more probable that it occurs after dark when the low-level jet increases. Large hail could occur early in the convective cycle, but deep-layer shear parallel to the boundary should mean a quick transition into linear structures. Severe wind gusts will likely be the primary concern, though a low-end tornado threat may exist given the stronger low-level jet. ..Wendt.. 06/28/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday. Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns, though a couple of tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will evolve out of the upper trough in the northern Rockies. The timing of this feature remains a bit uncertain. The strongest mid-level ascent will likely occur in eastern Dakotas/western Minnesota after 00Z. A surface low will deepen within the eastern Dakotas and lift north-northeast with time. A very moist airmass will be in place between a cold front in the central Plains and a warm front in the Upper Midwest. Upper level ridging will continue in the Midwest/East with modest breakdown of this ridge expected in the Dakotas/Minnesota. ...Eastern Dakotas into northern Minnesota... The forecast remains rather uncertain across these regions. At least weak convection appears probable within parts of the Dakotas into western Minnesota during the morning. How this activity evolves will play a role in where afternoon severe potential will exist. Model agreement has marginally increased with regard to the evolution of the shortwave trough in the northern Plains and the surface low migrating north-northeast near the Red River. Even so, upper-level ridging that will persist through much of the period limits confidence in if and how many storms will develop during the afternoon/early evening. Should sufficient destabilization occur near the surface low, a portion of eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota appear to have the greatest relative potential for severe storms. All severe hazards would be possible given the 50+ kt of effective shear, 4000+ J/kg MLCAPE, and locally stronger low-level shear. Model solutions for activity near the surface low and areas southward into eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota are highly disparate. The ECMWF would suggest some potential for an MCS to develop near the surface low and track through parts of northern/east-central Minnesota along the buoyancy gradient. This particular scenario has been fairly consistent along with the depiction of a more southern surface low/upper trough. Solutions such as the RRFS would suggest a supercell or two could occur farther south along the South Dakota/Minnesota border. ...Nebraska into southern/central Minnesota... Though the timing of development differs, there has been an increasing convective signal trend in recent guidance along the cold front. There is at least some potential for this to occur during late afternoon with a window for storms to be surface based, but it is more probable that it occurs after dark when the low-level jet increases. Large hail could occur early in the convective cycle, but deep-layer shear parallel to the boundary should mean a quick transition into linear structures. Severe wind gusts will likely be the primary concern, though a low-end tornado threat may exist given the stronger low-level jet. ..Wendt.. 06/28/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday. Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns, though a couple of tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will evolve out of the upper trough in the northern Rockies. The timing of this feature remains a bit uncertain. The strongest mid-level ascent will likely occur in eastern Dakotas/western Minnesota after 00Z. A surface low will deepen within the eastern Dakotas and lift north-northeast with time. A very moist airmass will be in place between a cold front in the central Plains and a warm front in the Upper Midwest. Upper level ridging will continue in the Midwest/East with modest breakdown of this ridge expected in the Dakotas/Minnesota. ...Eastern Dakotas into northern Minnesota... The forecast remains rather uncertain across these regions. At least weak convection appears probable within parts of the Dakotas into western Minnesota during the morning. How this activity evolves will play a role in where afternoon severe potential will exist. Model agreement has marginally increased with regard to the evolution of the shortwave trough in the northern Plains and the surface low migrating north-northeast near the Red River. Even so, upper-level ridging that will persist through much of the period limits confidence in if and how many storms will develop during the afternoon/early evening. Should sufficient destabilization occur near the surface low, a portion of eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota appear to have the greatest relative potential for severe storms. All severe hazards would be possible given the 50+ kt of effective shear, 4000+ J/kg MLCAPE, and locally stronger low-level shear. Model solutions for activity near the surface low and areas southward into eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota are highly disparate. The ECMWF would suggest some potential for an MCS to develop near the surface low and track through parts of northern/east-central Minnesota along the buoyancy gradient. This particular scenario has been fairly consistent along with the depiction of a more southern surface low/upper trough. Solutions such as the RRFS would suggest a supercell or two could occur farther south along the South Dakota/Minnesota border. ...Nebraska into southern/central Minnesota... Though the timing of development differs, there has been an increasing convective signal trend in recent guidance along the cold front. There is at least some potential for this to occur during late afternoon with a window for storms to be surface based, but it is more probable that it occurs after dark when the low-level jet increases. Large hail could occur early in the convective cycle, but deep-layer shear parallel to the boundary should mean a quick transition into linear structures. Severe wind gusts will likely be the primary concern, though a low-end tornado threat may exist given the stronger low-level jet. ..Wendt.. 06/28/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday. Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns, though a couple of tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will evolve out of the upper trough in the northern Rockies. The timing of this feature remains a bit uncertain. The strongest mid-level ascent will likely occur in eastern Dakotas/western Minnesota after 00Z. A surface low will deepen within the eastern Dakotas and lift north-northeast with time. A very moist airmass will be in place between a cold front in the central Plains and a warm front in the Upper Midwest. Upper level ridging will continue in the Midwest/East with modest breakdown of this ridge expected in the Dakotas/Minnesota. ...Eastern Dakotas into northern Minnesota... The forecast remains rather uncertain across these regions. At least weak convection appears probable within parts of the Dakotas into western Minnesota during the morning. How this activity evolves will play a role in where afternoon severe potential will exist. Model agreement has marginally increased with regard to the evolution of the shortwave trough in the northern Plains and the surface low migrating north-northeast near the Red River. Even so, upper-level ridging that will persist through much of the period limits confidence in if and how many storms will develop during the afternoon/early evening. Should sufficient destabilization occur near the surface low, a portion of eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota appear to have the greatest relative potential for severe storms. All severe hazards would be possible given the 50+ kt of effective shear, 4000+ J/kg MLCAPE, and locally stronger low-level shear. Model solutions for activity near the surface low and areas southward into eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota are highly disparate. The ECMWF would suggest some potential for an MCS to develop near the surface low and track through parts of northern/east-central Minnesota along the buoyancy gradient. This particular scenario has been fairly consistent along with the depiction of a more southern surface low/upper trough. Solutions such as the RRFS would suggest a supercell or two could occur farther south along the South Dakota/Minnesota border. ...Nebraska into southern/central Minnesota... Though the timing of development differs, there has been an increasing convective signal trend in recent guidance along the cold front. There is at least some potential for this to occur during late afternoon with a window for storms to be surface based, but it is more probable that it occurs after dark when the low-level jet increases. Large hail could occur early in the convective cycle, but deep-layer shear parallel to the boundary should mean a quick transition into linear structures. Severe wind gusts will likely be the primary concern, though a low-end tornado threat may exist given the stronger low-level jet. ..Wendt.. 06/28/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across northern Iowa and vicinity, and mainly tonight across the Dakotas. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards. ...Dakotas to IA/WI through tonight... As the primary cyclone occludes near the southwest SK/southeast AB border, a belt of south-southwesterly midlevel flow near 50 kt will be maintained from CO to the Dakotas, east of the broad closed low over the northern Great Basin/Rockies. A separate lee cyclone is expected to form in the vicinity of northeast CO this afternoon and then progress northeastward across NE/SD overnight. A storm cluster will likely be ongoing near the southwest MN/northwest IA border at the start of the period, as a continuation of the ongoing storms along the NE/SD border. These morning storms will pose a threat for occasional large hail/wind damage along the warm front/buoyancy gradient through midday/early afternoon. In the wake of the morning storms, a surface warm front demarcating boundary-layer dewpoints into the 70s will likewise move northward slowly across IA into southern MN/WI. West of the morning storms, a warm elevated mixed layer observed in 00Z soundings across the central Plains will act to cap the moistening boundary layer and likely inhibit additional warm sector storm development through much of the period. A few storms will be possible in ND during the afternoon, though storm coverage/intensity are both in question given weak-moderate buoyancy and limited forcing for ascent. Much of the severe threat will likely be delayed until tonight immediately north of the lee cyclone into SD. Westward advection of richer moisture and ascent preceding the surface cyclone (and subtle embedded speed maxima aloft) will likely support elevated thunderstorm development overnight across western SD into southern ND. The environment will favor elevated supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and occasional severe gusts. Farther east, a zone of low-level warm advection will be focused across WI by late evening/early tonight along the northeast edge of the warm elevated mixed layer. Sufficient moistening above the surface and large CAPE will favor the potential for at least isolated large hail/strong gusts with largely elevated storms tonight. ...Carolinas/southern VA this afternoon/evening... An MCV now over KY will turn more southeastward today, downstream from an amplifying ridge over the lower and middle MS Valley. Destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates in cloud breaks, along with ~25 kt midlevel flow, will support isolated wind damage potential with storm clusters during the afternoon/evening. ...West TX late this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating and deep mixing along a sharpening dryline will allow high-based thunderstorm development from late afternoon through late evening. Flow aloft will be weak, but inverted-V profiles will favor isolated severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph. ..Thompson/Chalmers.. 06/28/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across northern Iowa and vicinity, and mainly tonight across the Dakotas. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards. ...Dakotas to IA/WI through tonight... As the primary cyclone occludes near the southwest SK/southeast AB border, a belt of south-southwesterly midlevel flow near 50 kt will be maintained from CO to the Dakotas, east of the broad closed low over the northern Great Basin/Rockies. A separate lee cyclone is expected to form in the vicinity of northeast CO this afternoon and then progress northeastward across NE/SD overnight. A storm cluster will likely be ongoing near the southwest MN/northwest IA border at the start of the period, as a continuation of the ongoing storms along the NE/SD border. These morning storms will pose a threat for occasional large hail/wind damage along the warm front/buoyancy gradient through midday/early afternoon. In the wake of the morning storms, a surface warm front demarcating boundary-layer dewpoints into the 70s will likewise move northward slowly across IA into southern MN/WI. West of the morning storms, a warm elevated mixed layer observed in 00Z soundings across the central Plains will act to cap the moistening boundary layer and likely inhibit additional warm sector storm development through much of the period. A few storms will be possible in ND during the afternoon, though storm coverage/intensity are both in question given weak-moderate buoyancy and limited forcing for ascent. Much of the severe threat will likely be delayed until tonight immediately north of the lee cyclone into SD. Westward advection of richer moisture and ascent preceding the surface cyclone (and subtle embedded speed maxima aloft) will likely support elevated thunderstorm development overnight across western SD into southern ND. The environment will favor elevated supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and occasional severe gusts. Farther east, a zone of low-level warm advection will be focused across WI by late evening/early tonight along the northeast edge of the warm elevated mixed layer. Sufficient moistening above the surface and large CAPE will favor the potential for at least isolated large hail/strong gusts with largely elevated storms tonight. ...Carolinas/southern VA this afternoon/evening... An MCV now over KY will turn more southeastward today, downstream from an amplifying ridge over the lower and middle MS Valley. Destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates in cloud breaks, along with ~25 kt midlevel flow, will support isolated wind damage potential with storm clusters during the afternoon/evening. ...West TX late this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating and deep mixing along a sharpening dryline will allow high-based thunderstorm development from late afternoon through late evening. Flow aloft will be weak, but inverted-V profiles will favor isolated severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph. ..Thompson/Chalmers.. 06/28/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across northern Iowa and vicinity, and mainly tonight across the Dakotas. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards. ...Dakotas to IA/WI through tonight... As the primary cyclone occludes near the southwest SK/southeast AB border, a belt of south-southwesterly midlevel flow near 50 kt will be maintained from CO to the Dakotas, east of the broad closed low over the northern Great Basin/Rockies. A separate lee cyclone is expected to form in the vicinity of northeast CO this afternoon and then progress northeastward across NE/SD overnight. A storm cluster will likely be ongoing near the southwest MN/northwest IA border at the start of the period, as a continuation of the ongoing storms along the NE/SD border. These morning storms will pose a threat for occasional large hail/wind damage along the warm front/buoyancy gradient through midday/early afternoon. In the wake of the morning storms, a surface warm front demarcating boundary-layer dewpoints into the 70s will likewise move northward slowly across IA into southern MN/WI. West of the morning storms, a warm elevated mixed layer observed in 00Z soundings across the central Plains will act to cap the moistening boundary layer and likely inhibit additional warm sector storm development through much of the period. A few storms will be possible in ND during the afternoon, though storm coverage/intensity are both in question given weak-moderate buoyancy and limited forcing for ascent. Much of the severe threat will likely be delayed until tonight immediately north of the lee cyclone into SD. Westward advection of richer moisture and ascent preceding the surface cyclone (and subtle embedded speed maxima aloft) will likely support elevated thunderstorm development overnight across western SD into southern ND. The environment will favor elevated supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and occasional severe gusts. Farther east, a zone of low-level warm advection will be focused across WI by late evening/early tonight along the northeast edge of the warm elevated mixed layer. Sufficient moistening above the surface and large CAPE will favor the potential for at least isolated large hail/strong gusts with largely elevated storms tonight. ...Carolinas/southern VA this afternoon/evening... An MCV now over KY will turn more southeastward today, downstream from an amplifying ridge over the lower and middle MS Valley. Destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates in cloud breaks, along with ~25 kt midlevel flow, will support isolated wind damage potential with storm clusters during the afternoon/evening. ...West TX late this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating and deep mixing along a sharpening dryline will allow high-based thunderstorm development from late afternoon through late evening. Flow aloft will be weak, but inverted-V profiles will favor isolated severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph. ..Thompson/Chalmers.. 06/28/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across northern Iowa and vicinity, and mainly tonight across the Dakotas. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards. ...Dakotas to IA/WI through tonight... As the primary cyclone occludes near the southwest SK/southeast AB border, a belt of south-southwesterly midlevel flow near 50 kt will be maintained from CO to the Dakotas, east of the broad closed low over the northern Great Basin/Rockies. A separate lee cyclone is expected to form in the vicinity of northeast CO this afternoon and then progress northeastward across NE/SD overnight. A storm cluster will likely be ongoing near the southwest MN/northwest IA border at the start of the period, as a continuation of the ongoing storms along the NE/SD border. These morning storms will pose a threat for occasional large hail/wind damage along the warm front/buoyancy gradient through midday/early afternoon. In the wake of the morning storms, a surface warm front demarcating boundary-layer dewpoints into the 70s will likewise move northward slowly across IA into southern MN/WI. West of the morning storms, a warm elevated mixed layer observed in 00Z soundings across the central Plains will act to cap the moistening boundary layer and likely inhibit additional warm sector storm development through much of the period. A few storms will be possible in ND during the afternoon, though storm coverage/intensity are both in question given weak-moderate buoyancy and limited forcing for ascent. Much of the severe threat will likely be delayed until tonight immediately north of the lee cyclone into SD. Westward advection of richer moisture and ascent preceding the surface cyclone (and subtle embedded speed maxima aloft) will likely support elevated thunderstorm development overnight across western SD into southern ND. The environment will favor elevated supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and occasional severe gusts. Farther east, a zone of low-level warm advection will be focused across WI by late evening/early tonight along the northeast edge of the warm elevated mixed layer. Sufficient moistening above the surface and large CAPE will favor the potential for at least isolated large hail/strong gusts with largely elevated storms tonight. ...Carolinas/southern VA this afternoon/evening... An MCV now over KY will turn more southeastward today, downstream from an amplifying ridge over the lower and middle MS Valley. Destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates in cloud breaks, along with ~25 kt midlevel flow, will support isolated wind damage potential with storm clusters during the afternoon/evening. ...West TX late this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating and deep mixing along a sharpening dryline will allow high-based thunderstorm development from late afternoon through late evening. Flow aloft will be weak, but inverted-V profiles will favor isolated severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph. ..Thompson/Chalmers.. 06/28/2026 Read more

MD 1363 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 409... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1363 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026 Areas affected...parts of central into eastern North Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 409... Valid 280455Z - 280700Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 409 continues. SUMMARY...Trends will continue to be monitored, but a new severe weather watch probably will not be needed to the east of severe weather watch 409. DISCUSSION...Two-hourly surface pressure rises on the order of 2-6 mb were still evident within the eastward propagating cold pools overspreading central North Dakota in the 04Z surface observations. However, further cooling and some drying of the boundary-layer has been evident in observations across eastern North Dakota, where southerly flow around 850 mb is also forecast to gradually weaken overnight ahead of the remnant convective system. Less unstable and weakening updraft inflow seem likely to contribute to sufficient further weakening of storms that a new severe weather watch may not be needed to the east of the current watch. ..Kerr.. 06/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 49310041 48059792 46059708 46179899 46809972 48290048 48860114 49310041 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1362 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 406... FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1362 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026 Areas affected...parts of north central Nebraska through south central and southeastern South Dakota Concerning...Tornado Watch 406... Valid 280338Z - 280545Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 406 continues. SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorms, perhaps including evolving supercell structures ahead of an increasingly organized cluster, are likely to pose an increasing risk for strong to severe wind gusts, large hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes through midnight to 2 am CDT, near and north of the Nebraska/South Dakota state border area. A new severe weather watch will likely be needed within the next hour or so. DISCUSSION...Warmer elevated mixed-layer air (as generally depicted by 16-18 C temperatures around 700 mb) continues to nose northeast of the southern Rockies, downstream of the broad mid-level low centered over the Northwest. As this continues through late evening, latest Rapid Refresh suggests that a 700 mb thermal gradient demarcating the stronger mid-level inhibition will focus near the Nebraska/South Dakota state border by 05-07Z. Beneath this regime, it appears that a surface cyclone is undergoing further deepening as it migrates across and northeast of the Cheyenne Ridge vicinity of the high plains. As this continues, a southerly 850 mb jet across the Panhandle vicinity through north central Nebraska is forecast to undergo notable further strengthening to 50-60+ kt. It appears that strengthening low-level convergence and warm advection near the nose of this jet, where inflow of seasonably high moisture content with sizable potential instability will be maintained, will support potential for substantive further intensification, upscale growth and organization of ongoing convection. The evolution of preceding supercell structures might also not be out of the question, posing a risk for large hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, while the potential for strong to severe wind gusts increases with the evolving larger-scale convective system. ..Kerr.. 06/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 43340151 43740029 44059839 43209780 42369995 42490154 43340151 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0406 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 406 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AIA TO 25 ENE CDR TO 30 E PHP. ..KERR..06/28/26 ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 406 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC031-161-280540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHERRY SHERIDAN SDC007-021-065-071-075-095-119-121-123-129-280540- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT CAMPBELL HUGHES JACKSON JONES MELLETTE SULLY TODD TRIPP WALWORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0406 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 406 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AIA TO 25 ENE CDR TO 30 E PHP. ..KERR..06/28/26 ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 406 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC031-161-280540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHERRY SHERIDAN SDC007-021-065-071-075-095-119-121-123-129-280540- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT CAMPBELL HUGHES JACKSON JONES MELLETTE SULLY TODD TRIPP WALWORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0406 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 406 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AIA TO 25 ENE CDR TO 30 E PHP. ..KERR..06/28/26 ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 406 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC031-161-280540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHERRY SHERIDAN SDC007-021-065-071-075-095-119-121-123-129-280540- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT CAMPBELL HUGHES JACKSON JONES MELLETTE SULLY TODD TRIPP WALWORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0406 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 406 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AIA TO 25 ENE CDR TO 30 E PHP. ..KERR..06/28/26 ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 406 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC031-161-280540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHERRY SHERIDAN SDC007-021-065-071-075-095-119-121-123-129-280540- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT CAMPBELL HUGHES JACKSON JONES MELLETTE SULLY TODD TRIPP WALWORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 406 TORNADO ND NE SD 272105Z - 280500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 406 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 305 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western North Dakota Northern Nebraska Western South Dakota * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 90 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Significant severe storms including supercells are expected to develop regionally, with large hail and some tornadoes possible. A prominent damaging wind threat may also unfold into this evening across the western Dakotas. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northeast of Williston ND to 75 miles southeast of Chadron NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 403...WW 404...WW 405... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0409 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 409 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..06/28/26 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 409 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC009-015-021-029-031-043-045-047-049-051-055-069-075-079-083- 093-101-103-280540- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOTTINEAU BURLEIGH DICKEY EMMONS FOSTER KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN MCHENRY MCINTOSH MCLEAN PIERCE RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN STUTSMAN WARD WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0409 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 409 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..06/28/26 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 409 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC009-015-021-029-031-043-045-047-049-051-055-069-075-079-083- 093-101-103-280540- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOTTINEAU BURLEIGH DICKEY EMMONS FOSTER KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN MCHENRY MCINTOSH MCLEAN PIERCE RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN STUTSMAN WARD WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more