SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO
WEST-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...
...Portions of the Northern and Central Plains...
No significant changes to the outlook were made. A mid-level short
wave and attendant 60-70 knot jet max enters the northern High
Plains Sunday. At the surface, a deepening lee surface trough and
evolving cold front will translate eastward into Upper Midwest by
early Tuesday morning. A well mixed boundary layer collocated with
stronger flow aloft will support a corridor of stronger
west-northwest winds of 20-25 mph across northeastern MT and western
ND. These winds aligned with RH minima of 15-25% will support
critical fire weather conditions amid very dry fuels. Elevated fire
weather concerns including wind speeds approaching 20 mph from the
west/northwest will exist across much of the High Plains of Montana
into western ND surrounding the higher magnitude wind corridor.
There is a potential for elevated convection across northern ND as
the surface trough and cold front push into Northern Plains,
although expected cloud cover could inhibit broader destabilization
and thus lightning production.
South of the cold front, downslope enhanced drying amid deep layer
westerly flow will affect portions of western SD and northern NE.
West winds of around 15 mph and RH as low as 10% will promote
several hours of elevated fire weather conditions amid receptive
fuels Monday.
..Williams.. 05/10/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026/
...Synopsis...
Along the northern periphery of an expansive upper ridge over the
West, a robust midlevel trough and accompanying 60-70-kt jet streak
will advance eastward across MT into ND during peak heating. At the
same time, a related surface low will move eastward from SK into MB
Canada, while a southward-extending lee trough deepens along the
northern/central Plains -- before being overtaken by a surface
front. This large-scale pattern will favor a broad area of elevated
conditions across parts of the northern and central Plains during
the afternoon, with critical conditions expected over eastern MT
into west-central ND.
...Northern into the Central Plains...
Ample diurnal heating and downslope flow trajectories will promote
deep boundary-layer mixing along and west of the lee trough during
the afternoon, where upper 70s to lower/middle 80s temperatures and
15-25 percent RH are expected. Over the northern Plains, a
combination of a tight pressure gradient and strong deep-layer
west-northwesterly flow will promote 20-25 mph sustained
west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 20-25
percent RH. The greatest overlap of strong surface winds and low RH
atop critically receptive fuels is expected from eastern MT into
west-central ND -- where Critical highlights are in place. Farther
south, a slightly weaker pressure gradient and moderate flow aloft
will favor 15 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds, with
10-15 percent RH. Given receptive fuels here as well, elevated to
locally critical conditions are expected. A north-northwesterly wind
shift is expected during the evening behind the front, with
increasing RH and cooling temperatures.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
KANSAS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Tuesday from parts of southeast Kansas northeast into
southern Wisconsin.
... Overview ...
The midlevel pattern will amplify further on Tuesday as a midlevel
low and associated trough move southeast over the Upper Great Lakes
in response to a building ridge upstream. As the midlevel flow
amplifies, a jet streak will redevelop on the upshear side of the
trough, resulting in strong vertical shear across the Central US.
At the surface, a low will quickly drop southeast out of Canada,
across Wisconsin, into Lower Michigan. To the west/southwest of this
low, a cold front will quickly push south and east.
... Southeast Kansas northeast into Southern Wisconsin ...
Ahead of the aforementioned surface cold front, southerly winds on
the west side of a surface anticyclone will support northward
moisture transport across the central US. The 20260510/12Z guidance
suite shows considerable variance in the depth and quality of the
moisture return and in turn, convective coverage.
Low level convergence along the front will be greatest the closest
to the surface low. Despite surface dewpoints in the upper-40Fs to
perhaps low-50Fs, a couple of thunderstorms are likely to develop
across southern Wisconsin. Convergence along the front should
decrease with southwest extent with an increasing EML/cap in the
same direction. Thus, despite better low level moisture, and in turn
buoyancy, across the Central Plains, confidence in thunderstorm
development is low. That said, the 20260510/12Z Hi-Res NAM shows
thunderstorm development all along the front from southeast Kansas
into Wisconsin. The overall kinematic environment will be favorable
for at least a few severe wind reports where ever thunderstorms
develop, and thus the Level 1/Marginal Risk has been expanded to
incorporate this potential.
... Central and South Florida ...
A post frontal airmass should be in place across the area on
Tuesday, with northerly surface winds advecting in a slightly drier
airmass. Despite that, a myriad of potential surface boundaries
(including both Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes) will be around during
the afternoon to serve as potential thunderstorm initiation
mechanisms. Although effective layer shear will be around 30 to
perhaps 40 knots, the degree of instability may limit the overall
wind threat.
... Interior Pacific Northwest ...
A few thunderstorms may develop during the late afternoon and
overnight across portions of Oregon and Washington within a belt of
strong southerly flow ahead of an approaching midlevel trough to the
west and the building ridge to the east. Although low level moisture
should remain scant, sufficient midlevel moisture should combine
with large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates to support a few
thunderstorms. Fast storm motions and steep low-to-midlevel lapse
rates may support a few severe thunderstorm wind gusts. However, the
nature of this threat is still too low to warrant unconditional
severe probabilities.
..Marsh.. 05/10/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
KANSAS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Tuesday from parts of southeast Kansas northeast into
southern Wisconsin.
... Overview ...
The midlevel pattern will amplify further on Tuesday as a midlevel
low and associated trough move southeast over the Upper Great Lakes
in response to a building ridge upstream. As the midlevel flow
amplifies, a jet streak will redevelop on the upshear side of the
trough, resulting in strong vertical shear across the Central US.
At the surface, a low will quickly drop southeast out of Canada,
across Wisconsin, into Lower Michigan. To the west/southwest of this
low, a cold front will quickly push south and east.
... Southeast Kansas northeast into Southern Wisconsin ...
Ahead of the aforementioned surface cold front, southerly winds on
the west side of a surface anticyclone will support northward
moisture transport across the central US. The 20260510/12Z guidance
suite shows considerable variance in the depth and quality of the
moisture return and in turn, convective coverage.
Low level convergence along the front will be greatest the closest
to the surface low. Despite surface dewpoints in the upper-40Fs to
perhaps low-50Fs, a couple of thunderstorms are likely to develop
across southern Wisconsin. Convergence along the front should
decrease with southwest extent with an increasing EML/cap in the
same direction. Thus, despite better low level moisture, and in turn
buoyancy, across the Central Plains, confidence in thunderstorm
development is low. That said, the 20260510/12Z Hi-Res NAM shows
thunderstorm development all along the front from southeast Kansas
into Wisconsin. The overall kinematic environment will be favorable
for at least a few severe wind reports where ever thunderstorms
develop, and thus the Level 1/Marginal Risk has been expanded to
incorporate this potential.
... Central and South Florida ...
A post frontal airmass should be in place across the area on
Tuesday, with northerly surface winds advecting in a slightly drier
airmass. Despite that, a myriad of potential surface boundaries
(including both Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes) will be around during
the afternoon to serve as potential thunderstorm initiation
mechanisms. Although effective layer shear will be around 30 to
perhaps 40 knots, the degree of instability may limit the overall
wind threat.
... Interior Pacific Northwest ...
A few thunderstorms may develop during the late afternoon and
overnight across portions of Oregon and Washington within a belt of
strong southerly flow ahead of an approaching midlevel trough to the
west and the building ridge to the east. Although low level moisture
should remain scant, sufficient midlevel moisture should combine
with large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates to support a few
thunderstorms. Fast storm motions and steep low-to-midlevel lapse
rates may support a few severe thunderstorm wind gusts. However, the
nature of this threat is still too low to warrant unconditional
severe probabilities.
..Marsh.. 05/10/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
KANSAS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Tuesday from parts of southeast Kansas northeast into
southern Wisconsin.
... Overview ...
The midlevel pattern will amplify further on Tuesday as a midlevel
low and associated trough move southeast over the Upper Great Lakes
in response to a building ridge upstream. As the midlevel flow
amplifies, a jet streak will redevelop on the upshear side of the
trough, resulting in strong vertical shear across the Central US.
At the surface, a low will quickly drop southeast out of Canada,
across Wisconsin, into Lower Michigan. To the west/southwest of this
low, a cold front will quickly push south and east.
... Southeast Kansas northeast into Southern Wisconsin ...
Ahead of the aforementioned surface cold front, southerly winds on
the west side of a surface anticyclone will support northward
moisture transport across the central US. The 20260510/12Z guidance
suite shows considerable variance in the depth and quality of the
moisture return and in turn, convective coverage.
Low level convergence along the front will be greatest the closest
to the surface low. Despite surface dewpoints in the upper-40Fs to
perhaps low-50Fs, a couple of thunderstorms are likely to develop
across southern Wisconsin. Convergence along the front should
decrease with southwest extent with an increasing EML/cap in the
same direction. Thus, despite better low level moisture, and in turn
buoyancy, across the Central Plains, confidence in thunderstorm
development is low. That said, the 20260510/12Z Hi-Res NAM shows
thunderstorm development all along the front from southeast Kansas
into Wisconsin. The overall kinematic environment will be favorable
for at least a few severe wind reports where ever thunderstorms
develop, and thus the Level 1/Marginal Risk has been expanded to
incorporate this potential.
... Central and South Florida ...
A post frontal airmass should be in place across the area on
Tuesday, with northerly surface winds advecting in a slightly drier
airmass. Despite that, a myriad of potential surface boundaries
(including both Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes) will be around during
the afternoon to serve as potential thunderstorm initiation
mechanisms. Although effective layer shear will be around 30 to
perhaps 40 knots, the degree of instability may limit the overall
wind threat.
... Interior Pacific Northwest ...
A few thunderstorms may develop during the late afternoon and
overnight across portions of Oregon and Washington within a belt of
strong southerly flow ahead of an approaching midlevel trough to the
west and the building ridge to the east. Although low level moisture
should remain scant, sufficient midlevel moisture should combine
with large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates to support a few
thunderstorms. Fast storm motions and steep low-to-midlevel lapse
rates may support a few severe thunderstorm wind gusts. However, the
nature of this threat is still too low to warrant unconditional
severe probabilities.
..Marsh.. 05/10/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
KANSAS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Tuesday from parts of southeast Kansas northeast into
southern Wisconsin.
... Overview ...
The midlevel pattern will amplify further on Tuesday as a midlevel
low and associated trough move southeast over the Upper Great Lakes
in response to a building ridge upstream. As the midlevel flow
amplifies, a jet streak will redevelop on the upshear side of the
trough, resulting in strong vertical shear across the Central US.
At the surface, a low will quickly drop southeast out of Canada,
across Wisconsin, into Lower Michigan. To the west/southwest of this
low, a cold front will quickly push south and east.
... Southeast Kansas northeast into Southern Wisconsin ...
Ahead of the aforementioned surface cold front, southerly winds on
the west side of a surface anticyclone will support northward
moisture transport across the central US. The 20260510/12Z guidance
suite shows considerable variance in the depth and quality of the
moisture return and in turn, convective coverage.
Low level convergence along the front will be greatest the closest
to the surface low. Despite surface dewpoints in the upper-40Fs to
perhaps low-50Fs, a couple of thunderstorms are likely to develop
across southern Wisconsin. Convergence along the front should
decrease with southwest extent with an increasing EML/cap in the
same direction. Thus, despite better low level moisture, and in turn
buoyancy, across the Central Plains, confidence in thunderstorm
development is low. That said, the 20260510/12Z Hi-Res NAM shows
thunderstorm development all along the front from southeast Kansas
into Wisconsin. The overall kinematic environment will be favorable
for at least a few severe wind reports where ever thunderstorms
develop, and thus the Level 1/Marginal Risk has been expanded to
incorporate this potential.
... Central and South Florida ...
A post frontal airmass should be in place across the area on
Tuesday, with northerly surface winds advecting in a slightly drier
airmass. Despite that, a myriad of potential surface boundaries
(including both Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes) will be around during
the afternoon to serve as potential thunderstorm initiation
mechanisms. Although effective layer shear will be around 30 to
perhaps 40 knots, the degree of instability may limit the overall
wind threat.
... Interior Pacific Northwest ...
A few thunderstorms may develop during the late afternoon and
overnight across portions of Oregon and Washington within a belt of
strong southerly flow ahead of an approaching midlevel trough to the
west and the building ridge to the east. Although low level moisture
should remain scant, sufficient midlevel moisture should combine
with large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates to support a few
thunderstorms. Fast storm motions and steep low-to-midlevel lapse
rates may support a few severe thunderstorm wind gusts. However, the
nature of this threat is still too low to warrant unconditional
severe probabilities.
..Marsh.. 05/10/2026
Read more
MD 0694 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0694
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Areas affected...portions of eastern Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 101824Z - 102000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...An ongoing thunderstorm cluster may persist southeastward
over the next couple of hours, with the potential for eventual
intensification. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may eventually be
needed.
DISCUSSION...A persistent convective cluster is ongoing across
portions of northeastern Texas, with latest high-res guidance
continuing to struggle to capture this activity. Latest
surface/mesoanalysis suggests that the environment immediately
downstream of this cluster is located within the remnant outflow of
overnight convection and possesses some residual inhibition (evident
on 18z SHV observed sounding). Thus, one plausible scenario is a
gradual weakening/dissipation of this cluster, with a weakening
trend and surging outflow noted along the southern flank via recent
radar imagery.
A small convective segment with a stronger core is noted along the
eastern edge of this cluster, however. This segment is in closer
proximity to the leading edge of the surface cold pool and more
favorably aligned with westerly deep-layer flow/shear. With
continued diurnal heating modifying the downstream air mass, there
is some potential for this cluster to persist and perhaps intensify
east-southeastward over the next couple of hours. In this scenario,
an increase in the threat for severe wind gusts and perhaps large
hail with any stronger, embedded cores would be possible.
Trends will continue to be monitored, and a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch may be needed for a portion of the area should it appear
likely that this cluster will continue to persist.
..Chalmers/Gleason.. 05/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...
LAT...LON 33289593 33339517 33369392 33269340 33109317 32819289
32419284 31959304 31689374 31609435 31639517 31749596
31909654 32349699 32669693 32979659 33239598 33289593
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
MD 0693 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF WEST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0693
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Areas affected...parts of West Texas into Northwest Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 101755Z - 101930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Supercells are expected to form this afternoon with a
threat of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado.
DISCUSSION...A surface front, reinforced by outflow from morning
convection, is moving slowly southward across northwest Texas. A
warm, moist airmass is present south of this front with temperatures
in the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints in the mid 60s. This currently
yields around 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Additional heating/moistening may
lead to even greater instability by mid to late afternoon.
GOES East meso-sector satellite imagery shows some deepening cumulus
and glaciating tops with a few storms already north of the frontal
boundary. This indicates some ascent across the area. Therefore,
within the next 1 to 2 hours, expect surface based strong to severe
convection along and south of this boundary across northwest Texas
as the remaining CIN erodes.
The DYX VWP is currently sampling around 30 knots of 0-6 km shear.
This shear is expected to increase through the day as the mid-level
flow gradually strengthens. Therefore, supercells are expected with
a large hail threat initially, before growing upscale into a MCS
with an increasing severe wind threat by this evening.
Initial convection appears most likely where convergence is
maximized near the intersection of the outflow and the front near
Haskell and Shackelford counties in Texas.
..Bentley/Gleason.. 05/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 31480152 32070179 32550192 32800185 32900139 32930086
33040032 33249988 33279926 33069884 32819857 32019837
31349878 30819947 30770007 30720080 30860134 31480152
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
MD 0692 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 0692
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Areas affected...portions of North/Central Florida and the Florida
Atlantic Coast
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 101724Z - 101900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will bring a risk for
isolated damaging winds and small to marginally severe hail this
afternoon. Watch issuance is unlikely at this time.
DISCUSSION...The 12z JAX/TBW observed soundings sampled a moist
low-level air mass across much of the Florida Peninsula. Diurnal
heating has since contributed to increasing buoyancy across the
region with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE per latest mesoanalysis and recent
ACARS profiles from TPA. Expectation is for widely scattered
thunderstorms to continue to develop along a weak surface trough
across North Florida and southward along the Atlantic Coast sea
breeze. PWATs across the region of 1.75+ inches will promote water
loaded downdrafts and a risk of strong to locally damaging winds.
Moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft is also supporting
40-45 kts of effective shear across portions of North Florida. This
will be sufficient to promote updraft organization and potentially
marginal supercell structures, with an associated risk for small to
isolated marginally severe hail with stronger updrafts. This
potential is likely to be tempered with southward extent owing to
warmer mid-level temperatures and weaker shear (30-35 kts) across
much of the Florida Peninsula. Watch issuance is unlikely at this
time owing to the expected limited magnitude/coverage of the severe
risk, but trends will continue to be monitored.
..Chalmers/Gleason.. 05/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 30018270 30308240 30508165 30538131 30488121 30238112
29878104 29318083 28808055 28508037 28278038 28028035
27678020 27188001 27037995 26817998 26698016 26748040
26898066 27018084 27098104 27268124 27508146 27878185
28238214 28428231 28648239 29018251 29328262 29658277
29878275 30018270
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are
possible Monday afternoon across parts of the Southeast.
... Overview ...
As a western midlevel ridge amplifies, a midlevel shortwave trough
will slowly progress southeast across eastern Texas into Louisiana
on Monday. At the same time, a surface cold front will slowly sag
south across the Southeast. Deep-layer ascent associated with the
midlevel vorticity maximum will interact with the trailing portion
of a surface front allowing the development of a surface trough/low
that will move east along the front.
... Southeast US ...
Along and ahead of the surface front, temperatures will warm into
the upper-70Fs to low-80Fs with dewpoint temperatures rising into
the upper-60Fs to low-70Fs. Convergence along the front will result
in scattered thunderstorm development, perhaps by late morning.
Strong cloud-layer shear, tall, skinny buoyancy profiles, and
precipitable water values around 1.75 inches will support a
marginally severe wind threat. Depending on the degree of heating of
the airmass ahead of the front, a marginal hail risk may also
develop. The most likely area for a concentration of wind and hail
occurrence will be where the surface front intersects any inland
moving sea breeze across southern South Carolina, Georgia, and
northern Florida.
Farther west across southeast Louisiana, convective coverage is less
certain. Although scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the
sagging front, additional thunderstorms may develop in response to
the deep-layer ascent with the midlevel vorticity maximum and
inverted trough/surface low. However, there is significant
disagreement within the 20260510/12Z HREF guidance as to the
coverage of any convection. Given the presence of a midlevel
vorticity maximum and a surface boundary, will lean toward the
wetter solutions. A similar kinematic and thermodynamic environment
will exist here as farther east, supporting primarily a marginal
wind threat.
..Marsh.. 05/10/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are
possible Monday afternoon across parts of the Southeast.
... Overview ...
As a western midlevel ridge amplifies, a midlevel shortwave trough
will slowly progress southeast across eastern Texas into Louisiana
on Monday. At the same time, a surface cold front will slowly sag
south across the Southeast. Deep-layer ascent associated with the
midlevel vorticity maximum will interact with the trailing portion
of a surface front allowing the development of a surface trough/low
that will move east along the front.
... Southeast US ...
Along and ahead of the surface front, temperatures will warm into
the upper-70Fs to low-80Fs with dewpoint temperatures rising into
the upper-60Fs to low-70Fs. Convergence along the front will result
in scattered thunderstorm development, perhaps by late morning.
Strong cloud-layer shear, tall, skinny buoyancy profiles, and
precipitable water values around 1.75 inches will support a
marginally severe wind threat. Depending on the degree of heating of
the airmass ahead of the front, a marginal hail risk may also
develop. The most likely area for a concentration of wind and hail
occurrence will be where the surface front intersects any inland
moving sea breeze across southern South Carolina, Georgia, and
northern Florida.
Farther west across southeast Louisiana, convective coverage is less
certain. Although scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the
sagging front, additional thunderstorms may develop in response to
the deep-layer ascent with the midlevel vorticity maximum and
inverted trough/surface low. However, there is significant
disagreement within the 20260510/12Z HREF guidance as to the
coverage of any convection. Given the presence of a midlevel
vorticity maximum and a surface boundary, will lean toward the
wetter solutions. A similar kinematic and thermodynamic environment
will exist here as farther east, supporting primarily a marginal
wind threat.
..Marsh.. 05/10/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are
possible Monday afternoon across parts of the Southeast.
... Overview ...
As a western midlevel ridge amplifies, a midlevel shortwave trough
will slowly progress southeast across eastern Texas into Louisiana
on Monday. At the same time, a surface cold front will slowly sag
south across the Southeast. Deep-layer ascent associated with the
midlevel vorticity maximum will interact with the trailing portion
of a surface front allowing the development of a surface trough/low
that will move east along the front.
... Southeast US ...
Along and ahead of the surface front, temperatures will warm into
the upper-70Fs to low-80Fs with dewpoint temperatures rising into
the upper-60Fs to low-70Fs. Convergence along the front will result
in scattered thunderstorm development, perhaps by late morning.
Strong cloud-layer shear, tall, skinny buoyancy profiles, and
precipitable water values around 1.75 inches will support a
marginally severe wind threat. Depending on the degree of heating of
the airmass ahead of the front, a marginal hail risk may also
develop. The most likely area for a concentration of wind and hail
occurrence will be where the surface front intersects any inland
moving sea breeze across southern South Carolina, Georgia, and
northern Florida.
Farther west across southeast Louisiana, convective coverage is less
certain. Although scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the
sagging front, additional thunderstorms may develop in response to
the deep-layer ascent with the midlevel vorticity maximum and
inverted trough/surface low. However, there is significant
disagreement within the 20260510/12Z HREF guidance as to the
coverage of any convection. Given the presence of a midlevel
vorticity maximum and a surface boundary, will lean toward the
wetter solutions. A similar kinematic and thermodynamic environment
will exist here as farther east, supporting primarily a marginal
wind threat.
..Marsh.. 05/10/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are
possible Monday afternoon across parts of the Southeast.
... Overview ...
As a western midlevel ridge amplifies, a midlevel shortwave trough
will slowly progress southeast across eastern Texas into Louisiana
on Monday. At the same time, a surface cold front will slowly sag
south across the Southeast. Deep-layer ascent associated with the
midlevel vorticity maximum will interact with the trailing portion
of a surface front allowing the development of a surface trough/low
that will move east along the front.
... Southeast US ...
Along and ahead of the surface front, temperatures will warm into
the upper-70Fs to low-80Fs with dewpoint temperatures rising into
the upper-60Fs to low-70Fs. Convergence along the front will result
in scattered thunderstorm development, perhaps by late morning.
Strong cloud-layer shear, tall, skinny buoyancy profiles, and
precipitable water values around 1.75 inches will support a
marginally severe wind threat. Depending on the degree of heating of
the airmass ahead of the front, a marginal hail risk may also
develop. The most likely area for a concentration of wind and hail
occurrence will be where the surface front intersects any inland
moving sea breeze across southern South Carolina, Georgia, and
northern Florida.
Farther west across southeast Louisiana, convective coverage is less
certain. Although scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the
sagging front, additional thunderstorms may develop in response to
the deep-layer ascent with the midlevel vorticity maximum and
inverted trough/surface low. However, there is significant
disagreement within the 20260510/12Z HREF guidance as to the
coverage of any convection. Given the presence of a midlevel
vorticity maximum and a surface boundary, will lean toward the
wetter solutions. A similar kinematic and thermodynamic environment
will exist here as farther east, supporting primarily a marginal
wind threat.
..Marsh.. 05/10/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 101630Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered large hail (some 2+ inches) and numerous severe/damaging
wind gusts (isolated 75+ mph) are expected this afternoon/evening
across parts of west-central to central Texas. A couple of tornadoes
also appear possible across parts of west-central Texas along/near a
front.
...Texas into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
Severe potential today will be complicated by ongoing thunderstorms
along/near the Red River and a convectively reinforced outflow
boundary across the ArkLaTex/lower MS Valley. In general, a
favorable setup for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds
remains apparent this afternoon/evening across parts of west-central
into north TX to the south of current convective activity, along
with the potential for large to very large hail and perhaps a couple
of tornadoes with initial supercells that may develop.
Recent surface analysis shows a low over northwest TX, with a
dryline extending southward to the Big Bend region. A cold front
arcing northeastward from the low across western north TX into
southern OK and western/northern AR will likely serve as a focus for
additional robust thunderstorm development this afternoon. The
observed 12Z FWD sounding sampled the pre-convective airmass well,
with steep mid-level lapse rates atop a rather moist low-level
airmass aiding MUCAPE around 2500 J/kg.
There is some uncertainty regarding airmass recovery with eastward
extent towards the ArkLaTex given a notable outflow boundary from
earlier convection noted on latest visible satellite imagery
extending from north-central to east-central TX. Still, this
boundary seems to have stalled recently, with mostly clear skies to
its north across northeast TX ahead of ongoing thunderstorms in
north-central TX. Current expectations are for moderate to strong
instability to develop this afternoon as diurnal heating occurs
across west-central to north TX, with the greatest instability
focused south of the cold front/outflow and east of the dryline.
Stronger west-northwesterly mid-level flow associated with a
southeastward-moving shortwave trough may tend to remain displaced
along and slightly to the north of the cold front through the day.
Still, sufficient overlap of modestly enhanced mid-level winds and
related deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern portions of
the warm sector in TX. This shear should support some supercells
with initial development, particularly across parts of west-central
into north-central TX. Large to isolated very large hail (2+ inches)
may occur with these supercells, before convection quickly grows
upscale into an intense bowing cluster. A narrow zone of tornado
potential is also apparent with the supercells across parts of
west-central TX near the sagging front, where low-level shear will
be locally enhanced by east-northeasterly near-surface winds.
Scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds are expected across much
of central TX after this mode transition occurs. With ample
instability and a highly organized cold pool expected, some of these
gusts could exceed 75 mph on a localized basis. The severe/damaging
wind threat should continue through the evening as the bowing
cluster spreads south-southeastward across much of TX. Eventual
weakening is forecast late tonight into early Monday morning,
although at least an isolated damaging wind threat may persist into
south/coastal TX through the end of the period.
Lower confidence in organized severe potential exists with eastward
extent into the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley, as ongoing cloud cover
and outflow from earlier convection may inhibit diurnal heating and
the development of any more than weak instability this afternoon.
Still, some chance for redevelopment remains apparent along/east of
the cold front, so severe hail/wind probabilities have been
maintained with adjustments based on current observations and latest
short-term guidance.
...Central New Mexico into Far West Texas...
Low-level orographic ascent with the surging cold front should
support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing across
central NM into parts of far west TX this afternoon and evening.
Cool temperatures aloft will aid in the development of weak
instability, even with limited low-level moisture. Around 30-35 kt
of effective bulk shear should foster organized updrafts, with the
strongest cores capable of producing isolated hail and occasional
severe/damaging winds.
...Florida...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop along the
stalled front this afternoon across the northern FL Peninsula, and
southward along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Diurnal heating of a
moist low-level airmass, with MLCAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg, should
support water-loaded downdrafts capable of producing locally
damaging winds. Sufficient deep-layer shear may also foster
sufficient updraft organization for isolated hail with the more
robust cores.
...Mid-Atlantic...
Strong to locally damaging winds may occur with high-based
convection that forms on the Appalachians/Blue Ridge this afternoon
and subsequently spreads east-northeastward along/ahead of a cold
front. While instability will remain weak, a deeply mixed boundary
layer should encourage gusty downdraft winds to reach the surface in
a narrow corridor where a Marginal Risk has been introduced.
..Gleason/Chalmers.. 05/10/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 101630Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered large hail (some 2+ inches) and numerous severe/damaging
wind gusts (isolated 75+ mph) are expected this afternoon/evening
across parts of west-central to central Texas. A couple of tornadoes
also appear possible across parts of west-central Texas along/near a
front.
...Texas into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
Severe potential today will be complicated by ongoing thunderstorms
along/near the Red River and a convectively reinforced outflow
boundary across the ArkLaTex/lower MS Valley. In general, a
favorable setup for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds
remains apparent this afternoon/evening across parts of west-central
into north TX to the south of current convective activity, along
with the potential for large to very large hail and perhaps a couple
of tornadoes with initial supercells that may develop.
Recent surface analysis shows a low over northwest TX, with a
dryline extending southward to the Big Bend region. A cold front
arcing northeastward from the low across western north TX into
southern OK and western/northern AR will likely serve as a focus for
additional robust thunderstorm development this afternoon. The
observed 12Z FWD sounding sampled the pre-convective airmass well,
with steep mid-level lapse rates atop a rather moist low-level
airmass aiding MUCAPE around 2500 J/kg.
There is some uncertainty regarding airmass recovery with eastward
extent towards the ArkLaTex given a notable outflow boundary from
earlier convection noted on latest visible satellite imagery
extending from north-central to east-central TX. Still, this
boundary seems to have stalled recently, with mostly clear skies to
its north across northeast TX ahead of ongoing thunderstorms in
north-central TX. Current expectations are for moderate to strong
instability to develop this afternoon as diurnal heating occurs
across west-central to north TX, with the greatest instability
focused south of the cold front/outflow and east of the dryline.
Stronger west-northwesterly mid-level flow associated with a
southeastward-moving shortwave trough may tend to remain displaced
along and slightly to the north of the cold front through the day.
Still, sufficient overlap of modestly enhanced mid-level winds and
related deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern portions of
the warm sector in TX. This shear should support some supercells
with initial development, particularly across parts of west-central
into north-central TX. Large to isolated very large hail (2+ inches)
may occur with these supercells, before convection quickly grows
upscale into an intense bowing cluster. A narrow zone of tornado
potential is also apparent with the supercells across parts of
west-central TX near the sagging front, where low-level shear will
be locally enhanced by east-northeasterly near-surface winds.
Scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds are expected across much
of central TX after this mode transition occurs. With ample
instability and a highly organized cold pool expected, some of these
gusts could exceed 75 mph on a localized basis. The severe/damaging
wind threat should continue through the evening as the bowing
cluster spreads south-southeastward across much of TX. Eventual
weakening is forecast late tonight into early Monday morning,
although at least an isolated damaging wind threat may persist into
south/coastal TX through the end of the period.
Lower confidence in organized severe potential exists with eastward
extent into the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley, as ongoing cloud cover
and outflow from earlier convection may inhibit diurnal heating and
the development of any more than weak instability this afternoon.
Still, some chance for redevelopment remains apparent along/east of
the cold front, so severe hail/wind probabilities have been
maintained with adjustments based on current observations and latest
short-term guidance.
...Central New Mexico into Far West Texas...
Low-level orographic ascent with the surging cold front should
support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing across
central NM into parts of far west TX this afternoon and evening.
Cool temperatures aloft will aid in the development of weak
instability, even with limited low-level moisture. Around 30-35 kt
of effective bulk shear should foster organized updrafts, with the
strongest cores capable of producing isolated hail and occasional
severe/damaging winds.
...Florida...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop along the
stalled front this afternoon across the northern FL Peninsula, and
southward along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Diurnal heating of a
moist low-level airmass, with MLCAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg, should
support water-loaded downdrafts capable of producing locally
damaging winds. Sufficient deep-layer shear may also foster
sufficient updraft organization for isolated hail with the more
robust cores.
...Mid-Atlantic...
Strong to locally damaging winds may occur with high-based
convection that forms on the Appalachians/Blue Ridge this afternoon
and subsequently spreads east-northeastward along/ahead of a cold
front. While instability will remain weak, a deeply mixed boundary
layer should encourage gusty downdraft winds to reach the surface in
a narrow corridor where a Marginal Risk has been introduced.
..Gleason/Chalmers.. 05/10/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 101630Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered large hail (some 2+ inches) and numerous severe/damaging
wind gusts (isolated 75+ mph) are expected this afternoon/evening
across parts of west-central to central Texas. A couple of tornadoes
also appear possible across parts of west-central Texas along/near a
front.
...Texas into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
Severe potential today will be complicated by ongoing thunderstorms
along/near the Red River and a convectively reinforced outflow
boundary across the ArkLaTex/lower MS Valley. In general, a
favorable setup for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds
remains apparent this afternoon/evening across parts of west-central
into north TX to the south of current convective activity, along
with the potential for large to very large hail and perhaps a couple
of tornadoes with initial supercells that may develop.
Recent surface analysis shows a low over northwest TX, with a
dryline extending southward to the Big Bend region. A cold front
arcing northeastward from the low across western north TX into
southern OK and western/northern AR will likely serve as a focus for
additional robust thunderstorm development this afternoon. The
observed 12Z FWD sounding sampled the pre-convective airmass well,
with steep mid-level lapse rates atop a rather moist low-level
airmass aiding MUCAPE around 2500 J/kg.
There is some uncertainty regarding airmass recovery with eastward
extent towards the ArkLaTex given a notable outflow boundary from
earlier convection noted on latest visible satellite imagery
extending from north-central to east-central TX. Still, this
boundary seems to have stalled recently, with mostly clear skies to
its north across northeast TX ahead of ongoing thunderstorms in
north-central TX. Current expectations are for moderate to strong
instability to develop this afternoon as diurnal heating occurs
across west-central to north TX, with the greatest instability
focused south of the cold front/outflow and east of the dryline.
Stronger west-northwesterly mid-level flow associated with a
southeastward-moving shortwave trough may tend to remain displaced
along and slightly to the north of the cold front through the day.
Still, sufficient overlap of modestly enhanced mid-level winds and
related deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern portions of
the warm sector in TX. This shear should support some supercells
with initial development, particularly across parts of west-central
into north-central TX. Large to isolated very large hail (2+ inches)
may occur with these supercells, before convection quickly grows
upscale into an intense bowing cluster. A narrow zone of tornado
potential is also apparent with the supercells across parts of
west-central TX near the sagging front, where low-level shear will
be locally enhanced by east-northeasterly near-surface winds.
Scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds are expected across much
of central TX after this mode transition occurs. With ample
instability and a highly organized cold pool expected, some of these
gusts could exceed 75 mph on a localized basis. The severe/damaging
wind threat should continue through the evening as the bowing
cluster spreads south-southeastward across much of TX. Eventual
weakening is forecast late tonight into early Monday morning,
although at least an isolated damaging wind threat may persist into
south/coastal TX through the end of the period.
Lower confidence in organized severe potential exists with eastward
extent into the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley, as ongoing cloud cover
and outflow from earlier convection may inhibit diurnal heating and
the development of any more than weak instability this afternoon.
Still, some chance for redevelopment remains apparent along/east of
the cold front, so severe hail/wind probabilities have been
maintained with adjustments based on current observations and latest
short-term guidance.
...Central New Mexico into Far West Texas...
Low-level orographic ascent with the surging cold front should
support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing across
central NM into parts of far west TX this afternoon and evening.
Cool temperatures aloft will aid in the development of weak
instability, even with limited low-level moisture. Around 30-35 kt
of effective bulk shear should foster organized updrafts, with the
strongest cores capable of producing isolated hail and occasional
severe/damaging winds.
...Florida...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop along the
stalled front this afternoon across the northern FL Peninsula, and
southward along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Diurnal heating of a
moist low-level airmass, with MLCAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg, should
support water-loaded downdrafts capable of producing locally
damaging winds. Sufficient deep-layer shear may also foster
sufficient updraft organization for isolated hail with the more
robust cores.
...Mid-Atlantic...
Strong to locally damaging winds may occur with high-based
convection that forms on the Appalachians/Blue Ridge this afternoon
and subsequently spreads east-northeastward along/ahead of a cold
front. While instability will remain weak, a deeply mixed boundary
layer should encourage gusty downdraft winds to reach the surface in
a narrow corridor where a Marginal Risk has been introduced.
..Gleason/Chalmers.. 05/10/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 101630Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered large hail (some 2+ inches) and numerous severe/damaging
wind gusts (isolated 75+ mph) are expected this afternoon/evening
across parts of west-central to central Texas. A couple of tornadoes
also appear possible across parts of west-central Texas along/near a
front.
...Texas into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
Severe potential today will be complicated by ongoing thunderstorms
along/near the Red River and a convectively reinforced outflow
boundary across the ArkLaTex/lower MS Valley. In general, a
favorable setup for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds
remains apparent this afternoon/evening across parts of west-central
into north TX to the south of current convective activity, along
with the potential for large to very large hail and perhaps a couple
of tornadoes with initial supercells that may develop.
Recent surface analysis shows a low over northwest TX, with a
dryline extending southward to the Big Bend region. A cold front
arcing northeastward from the low across western north TX into
southern OK and western/northern AR will likely serve as a focus for
additional robust thunderstorm development this afternoon. The
observed 12Z FWD sounding sampled the pre-convective airmass well,
with steep mid-level lapse rates atop a rather moist low-level
airmass aiding MUCAPE around 2500 J/kg.
There is some uncertainty regarding airmass recovery with eastward
extent towards the ArkLaTex given a notable outflow boundary from
earlier convection noted on latest visible satellite imagery
extending from north-central to east-central TX. Still, this
boundary seems to have stalled recently, with mostly clear skies to
its north across northeast TX ahead of ongoing thunderstorms in
north-central TX. Current expectations are for moderate to strong
instability to develop this afternoon as diurnal heating occurs
across west-central to north TX, with the greatest instability
focused south of the cold front/outflow and east of the dryline.
Stronger west-northwesterly mid-level flow associated with a
southeastward-moving shortwave trough may tend to remain displaced
along and slightly to the north of the cold front through the day.
Still, sufficient overlap of modestly enhanced mid-level winds and
related deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern portions of
the warm sector in TX. This shear should support some supercells
with initial development, particularly across parts of west-central
into north-central TX. Large to isolated very large hail (2+ inches)
may occur with these supercells, before convection quickly grows
upscale into an intense bowing cluster. A narrow zone of tornado
potential is also apparent with the supercells across parts of
west-central TX near the sagging front, where low-level shear will
be locally enhanced by east-northeasterly near-surface winds.
Scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds are expected across much
of central TX after this mode transition occurs. With ample
instability and a highly organized cold pool expected, some of these
gusts could exceed 75 mph on a localized basis. The severe/damaging
wind threat should continue through the evening as the bowing
cluster spreads south-southeastward across much of TX. Eventual
weakening is forecast late tonight into early Monday morning,
although at least an isolated damaging wind threat may persist into
south/coastal TX through the end of the period.
Lower confidence in organized severe potential exists with eastward
extent into the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley, as ongoing cloud cover
and outflow from earlier convection may inhibit diurnal heating and
the development of any more than weak instability this afternoon.
Still, some chance for redevelopment remains apparent along/east of
the cold front, so severe hail/wind probabilities have been
maintained with adjustments based on current observations and latest
short-term guidance.
...Central New Mexico into Far West Texas...
Low-level orographic ascent with the surging cold front should
support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing across
central NM into parts of far west TX this afternoon and evening.
Cool temperatures aloft will aid in the development of weak
instability, even with limited low-level moisture. Around 30-35 kt
of effective bulk shear should foster organized updrafts, with the
strongest cores capable of producing isolated hail and occasional
severe/damaging winds.
...Florida...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop along the
stalled front this afternoon across the northern FL Peninsula, and
southward along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Diurnal heating of a
moist low-level airmass, with MLCAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg, should
support water-loaded downdrafts capable of producing locally
damaging winds. Sufficient deep-layer shear may also foster
sufficient updraft organization for isolated hail with the more
robust cores.
...Mid-Atlantic...
Strong to locally damaging winds may occur with high-based
convection that forms on the Appalachians/Blue Ridge this afternoon
and subsequently spreads east-northeastward along/ahead of a cold
front. While instability will remain weak, a deeply mixed boundary
layer should encourage gusty downdraft winds to reach the surface in
a narrow corridor where a Marginal Risk has been introduced.
..Gleason/Chalmers.. 05/10/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 101630Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered large hail (some 2+ inches) and numerous severe/damaging
wind gusts (isolated 75+ mph) are expected this afternoon/evening
across parts of west-central to central Texas. A couple of tornadoes
also appear possible across parts of west-central Texas along/near a
front.
...Texas into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
Severe potential today will be complicated by ongoing thunderstorms
along/near the Red River and a convectively reinforced outflow
boundary across the ArkLaTex/lower MS Valley. In general, a
favorable setup for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds
remains apparent this afternoon/evening across parts of west-central
into north TX to the south of current convective activity, along
with the potential for large to very large hail and perhaps a couple
of tornadoes with initial supercells that may develop.
Recent surface analysis shows a low over northwest TX, with a
dryline extending southward to the Big Bend region. A cold front
arcing northeastward from the low across western north TX into
southern OK and western/northern AR will likely serve as a focus for
additional robust thunderstorm development this afternoon. The
observed 12Z FWD sounding sampled the pre-convective airmass well,
with steep mid-level lapse rates atop a rather moist low-level
airmass aiding MUCAPE around 2500 J/kg.
There is some uncertainty regarding airmass recovery with eastward
extent towards the ArkLaTex given a notable outflow boundary from
earlier convection noted on latest visible satellite imagery
extending from north-central to east-central TX. Still, this
boundary seems to have stalled recently, with mostly clear skies to
its north across northeast TX ahead of ongoing thunderstorms in
north-central TX. Current expectations are for moderate to strong
instability to develop this afternoon as diurnal heating occurs
across west-central to north TX, with the greatest instability
focused south of the cold front/outflow and east of the dryline.
Stronger west-northwesterly mid-level flow associated with a
southeastward-moving shortwave trough may tend to remain displaced
along and slightly to the north of the cold front through the day.
Still, sufficient overlap of modestly enhanced mid-level winds and
related deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern portions of
the warm sector in TX. This shear should support some supercells
with initial development, particularly across parts of west-central
into north-central TX. Large to isolated very large hail (2+ inches)
may occur with these supercells, before convection quickly grows
upscale into an intense bowing cluster. A narrow zone of tornado
potential is also apparent with the supercells across parts of
west-central TX near the sagging front, where low-level shear will
be locally enhanced by east-northeasterly near-surface winds.
Scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds are expected across much
of central TX after this mode transition occurs. With ample
instability and a highly organized cold pool expected, some of these
gusts could exceed 75 mph on a localized basis. The severe/damaging
wind threat should continue through the evening as the bowing
cluster spreads south-southeastward across much of TX. Eventual
weakening is forecast late tonight into early Monday morning,
although at least an isolated damaging wind threat may persist into
south/coastal TX through the end of the period.
Lower confidence in organized severe potential exists with eastward
extent into the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley, as ongoing cloud cover
and outflow from earlier convection may inhibit diurnal heating and
the development of any more than weak instability this afternoon.
Still, some chance for redevelopment remains apparent along/east of
the cold front, so severe hail/wind probabilities have been
maintained with adjustments based on current observations and latest
short-term guidance.
...Central New Mexico into Far West Texas...
Low-level orographic ascent with the surging cold front should
support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing across
central NM into parts of far west TX this afternoon and evening.
Cool temperatures aloft will aid in the development of weak
instability, even with limited low-level moisture. Around 30-35 kt
of effective bulk shear should foster organized updrafts, with the
strongest cores capable of producing isolated hail and occasional
severe/damaging winds.
...Florida...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop along the
stalled front this afternoon across the northern FL Peninsula, and
southward along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Diurnal heating of a
moist low-level airmass, with MLCAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg, should
support water-loaded downdrafts capable of producing locally
damaging winds. Sufficient deep-layer shear may also foster
sufficient updraft organization for isolated hail with the more
robust cores.
...Mid-Atlantic...
Strong to locally damaging winds may occur with high-based
convection that forms on the Appalachians/Blue Ridge this afternoon
and subsequently spreads east-northeastward along/ahead of a cold
front. While instability will remain weak, a deeply mixed boundary
layer should encourage gusty downdraft winds to reach the surface in
a narrow corridor where a Marginal Risk has been introduced.
..Gleason/Chalmers.. 05/10/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 101300Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered large hail (some 2+ inches) and numerous severe/damaging
wind gusts (isolated 75+ mph) are expected this afternoon/evening
across parts of west-central to central Texas. A couple of tornadoes
also appear possible across parts of west-central Texas along/near a
front.
...Texas into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
Severe potential today will be complicated by ongoing thunderstorms
along/near the Red River and a convectively reinforced outflow
boundary across the ArkLaTex/lower MS Valley. In general, a
favorable setup for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds
remains apparent this afternoon/evening across parts of west-central
into north TX to the south of current convective activity, along
with the potential for large to very large hail and perhaps a couple
of tornadoes with initial supercells that may develop.
Recent surface analysis shows a low over northwest TX, with a
dryline extending southward to the Big Bend region. A cold front
arcing northeastward from the low across western north TX into
southern OK and western/northern AR will likely serve as a focus for
additional robust thunderstorm development this afternoon. The
observed 12Z FWD sounding sampled the pre-convective airmass well,
with steep mid-level lapse rates atop a rather moist low-level
airmass aiding MUCAPE around 2500 J/kg.
There is some uncertainty regarding airmass recovery with eastward
extent towards the ArkLaTex given a notable outflow boundary from
earlier convection noted on latest visible satellite imagery
extending from north-central to east-central TX. Still, this
boundary seems to have stalled recently, with mostly clear skies to
its north across northeast TX ahead of ongoing thunderstorms in
north-central TX. Current expectations are for moderate to strong
instability to develop this afternoon as diurnal heating occurs
across west-central to north TX, with the greatest instability
focused south of the cold front/outflow and east of the dryline.
Stronger west-northwesterly mid-level flow associated with a
southeastward-moving shortwave trough may tend to remain displaced
along and slightly to the north of the cold front through the day.
Still, sufficient overlap of modestly enhanced mid-level winds and
related deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern portions of
the warm sector in TX. This shear should support some supercells
with initial development, particularly across parts of west-central
into north-central TX. Large to isolated very large hail (2+ inches)
may occur with these supercells, before convection quickly grows
upscale into an intense bowing cluster. A narrow zone of tornado
potential is also apparent with the supercells across parts of
west-central TX near the sagging front, where low-level shear will
be locally enhanced by east-northeasterly near-surface winds.
Scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds are expected across much
of central TX after this mode transition occurs. With ample
instability and a highly organized cold pool expected, some of these
gusts could exceed 75 mph on a localized basis. The severe/damaging
wind threat should continue through the evening as the bowing
cluster spreads south-southeastward across much of TX. Eventual
weakening is forecast late tonight into early Monday morning,
although at least an isolated damaging wind threat may persist into
south/coastal TX through the end of the period.
Lower confidence in organized severe potential exists with eastward
extent into the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley, as ongoing cloud cover
and outflow from earlier convection may inhibit diurnal heating and
the development of any more than weak instability this afternoon.
Still, some chance for redevelopment remains apparent along/east of
the cold front, so severe hail/wind probabilities have been
maintained with adjustments based on current observations and latest
short-term guidance.
...Central New Mexico into Far West Texas...
Low-level orographic ascent with the surging cold front should
support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing across
central NM into parts of far west TX this afternoon and evening.
Cool temperatures aloft will aid in the development of weak
instability, even with limited low-level moisture. Around 30-35 kt
of effective bulk shear should foster organized updrafts, with the
strongest cores capable of producing isolated hail and occasional
severe/damaging winds.
...Florida...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop along the
stalled front this afternoon across the northern FL Peninsula, and
southward along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Diurnal heating of a
moist low-level airmass, with MLCAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg, should
support water-loaded downdrafts capable of producing locally
damaging winds. Sufficient deep-layer shear may also foster
sufficient updraft organization for isolated hail with the more
robust cores.
...Mid-Atlantic...
Strong to locally damaging winds may occur with high-based
convection that forms on the Appalachians/Blue Ridge this afternoon
and subsequently spreads east-northeastward along/ahead of a cold
front. While instability will remain weak, a deeply mixed boundary
layer should encourage gusty downdraft winds to reach the surface in
a narrow corridor where a Marginal Risk has been introduced.
..Gleason/Chalmers.. 05/10/2026
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