Storm Prediction Center

WW 197 SEVERE TSTM TX 102215Z - 110500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 197 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 515 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South-Central Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon from 515 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms will initially impact parts of the Rio Grande Valley, while additional storms over central Texas continue to organize and progress southeastward, with an increasing potential for large hail and damaging winds this evening regionally. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west of Del Rio TX to 40 miles east southeast of Austin TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 196... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... A more active upper-level wave pattern emerges later this week across the CONUS. The upper ridge responsible for near record setting heat early this week will shift into the central U.S. by Thursday, saddled by an amplifying trough across the eastern U.S. and another trough moving into the western states Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday, the latter of which will bring broader fire weather concerns to a drying fuelscape across the West. Forecast uncertainty increases as the weekend approaches with a more diffuse, perhaps zonal, pattern returning to the CONUS. ...Day 3/Tuesday - Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... Dry, post-frontal flow in the wake of a deep surface low across the Great Lakes will bring a fire weather threat to portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest where frontal precipitation is minimized and critically dry fuels remain. RH reductions will be limited to 20-30% but northwest winds of 15-25 mph over receptive fuels, supports a continuation (and slight expansion based on latest model guidance) of 40% critical probabilities across the region. ...Day 4/Wednesday... ...Southern Great Basin and Southwest... Fire weather concerns increase across portions of the Southwest and Great Basin ahead of an advancing upper trough and attendant increasing southwest flow aloft. Advection of mid and upper level Pacific moisture and supportive kinematic environment should support some high-based showers and thunderstorms across much of the Intermountain West on Day 4/Wednesday. A 10% probability area for dry thunderstorms has been introduced where fuels are expected to be driest, reaching the 90th percentile by midweek under a few days of abnormally warm temperatures. Farther west, drier southwest flow should impact much of the eastern Great Basin and upper CO River Basin regions allowing for a heightened fire weather concern under a drying/curing fuelscape. A slight expansion of existing 40% critical probabilities has been made into the AZ Strip area. ...Northeastern Montana... A deepening surface low in the lee of the Northern Rockies will promote stronger southerly flow over the northern High Plains on Day 4/Wednesday. Existing dry fuels amid a southerly dry return flow will combine to bring enhanced fire weather concerns to northeastern MT, where 40% critical probabilities have been introduced. ..Williams.. 05/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... A more active upper-level wave pattern emerges later this week across the CONUS. The upper ridge responsible for near record setting heat early this week will shift into the central U.S. by Thursday, saddled by an amplifying trough across the eastern U.S. and another trough moving into the western states Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday, the latter of which will bring broader fire weather concerns to a drying fuelscape across the West. Forecast uncertainty increases as the weekend approaches with a more diffuse, perhaps zonal, pattern returning to the CONUS. ...Day 3/Tuesday - Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... Dry, post-frontal flow in the wake of a deep surface low across the Great Lakes will bring a fire weather threat to portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest where frontal precipitation is minimized and critically dry fuels remain. RH reductions will be limited to 20-30% but northwest winds of 15-25 mph over receptive fuels, supports a continuation (and slight expansion based on latest model guidance) of 40% critical probabilities across the region. ...Day 4/Wednesday... ...Southern Great Basin and Southwest... Fire weather concerns increase across portions of the Southwest and Great Basin ahead of an advancing upper trough and attendant increasing southwest flow aloft. Advection of mid and upper level Pacific moisture and supportive kinematic environment should support some high-based showers and thunderstorms across much of the Intermountain West on Day 4/Wednesday. A 10% probability area for dry thunderstorms has been introduced where fuels are expected to be driest, reaching the 90th percentile by midweek under a few days of abnormally warm temperatures. Farther west, drier southwest flow should impact much of the eastern Great Basin and upper CO River Basin regions allowing for a heightened fire weather concern under a drying/curing fuelscape. A slight expansion of existing 40% critical probabilities has been made into the AZ Strip area. ...Northeastern Montana... A deepening surface low in the lee of the Northern Rockies will promote stronger southerly flow over the northern High Plains on Day 4/Wednesday. Existing dry fuels amid a southerly dry return flow will combine to bring enhanced fire weather concerns to northeastern MT, where 40% critical probabilities have been introduced. ..Williams.. 05/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... A more active upper-level wave pattern emerges later this week across the CONUS. The upper ridge responsible for near record setting heat early this week will shift into the central U.S. by Thursday, saddled by an amplifying trough across the eastern U.S. and another trough moving into the western states Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday, the latter of which will bring broader fire weather concerns to a drying fuelscape across the West. Forecast uncertainty increases as the weekend approaches with a more diffuse, perhaps zonal, pattern returning to the CONUS. ...Day 3/Tuesday - Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... Dry, post-frontal flow in the wake of a deep surface low across the Great Lakes will bring a fire weather threat to portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest where frontal precipitation is minimized and critically dry fuels remain. RH reductions will be limited to 20-30% but northwest winds of 15-25 mph over receptive fuels, supports a continuation (and slight expansion based on latest model guidance) of 40% critical probabilities across the region. ...Day 4/Wednesday... ...Southern Great Basin and Southwest... Fire weather concerns increase across portions of the Southwest and Great Basin ahead of an advancing upper trough and attendant increasing southwest flow aloft. Advection of mid and upper level Pacific moisture and supportive kinematic environment should support some high-based showers and thunderstorms across much of the Intermountain West on Day 4/Wednesday. A 10% probability area for dry thunderstorms has been introduced where fuels are expected to be driest, reaching the 90th percentile by midweek under a few days of abnormally warm temperatures. Farther west, drier southwest flow should impact much of the eastern Great Basin and upper CO River Basin regions allowing for a heightened fire weather concern under a drying/curing fuelscape. A slight expansion of existing 40% critical probabilities has been made into the AZ Strip area. ...Northeastern Montana... A deepening surface low in the lee of the Northern Rockies will promote stronger southerly flow over the northern High Plains on Day 4/Wednesday. Existing dry fuels amid a southerly dry return flow will combine to bring enhanced fire weather concerns to northeastern MT, where 40% critical probabilities have been introduced. ..Williams.. 05/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... A more active upper-level wave pattern emerges later this week across the CONUS. The upper ridge responsible for near record setting heat early this week will shift into the central U.S. by Thursday, saddled by an amplifying trough across the eastern U.S. and another trough moving into the western states Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday, the latter of which will bring broader fire weather concerns to a drying fuelscape across the West. Forecast uncertainty increases as the weekend approaches with a more diffuse, perhaps zonal, pattern returning to the CONUS. ...Day 3/Tuesday - Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... Dry, post-frontal flow in the wake of a deep surface low across the Great Lakes will bring a fire weather threat to portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest where frontal precipitation is minimized and critically dry fuels remain. RH reductions will be limited to 20-30% but northwest winds of 15-25 mph over receptive fuels, supports a continuation (and slight expansion based on latest model guidance) of 40% critical probabilities across the region. ...Day 4/Wednesday... ...Southern Great Basin and Southwest... Fire weather concerns increase across portions of the Southwest and Great Basin ahead of an advancing upper trough and attendant increasing southwest flow aloft. Advection of mid and upper level Pacific moisture and supportive kinematic environment should support some high-based showers and thunderstorms across much of the Intermountain West on Day 4/Wednesday. A 10% probability area for dry thunderstorms has been introduced where fuels are expected to be driest, reaching the 90th percentile by midweek under a few days of abnormally warm temperatures. Farther west, drier southwest flow should impact much of the eastern Great Basin and upper CO River Basin regions allowing for a heightened fire weather concern under a drying/curing fuelscape. A slight expansion of existing 40% critical probabilities has been made into the AZ Strip area. ...Northeastern Montana... A deepening surface low in the lee of the Northern Rockies will promote stronger southerly flow over the northern High Plains on Day 4/Wednesday. Existing dry fuels amid a southerly dry return flow will combine to bring enhanced fire weather concerns to northeastern MT, where 40% critical probabilities have been introduced. ..Williams.. 05/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... A more active upper-level wave pattern emerges later this week across the CONUS. The upper ridge responsible for near record setting heat early this week will shift into the central U.S. by Thursday, saddled by an amplifying trough across the eastern U.S. and another trough moving into the western states Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday, the latter of which will bring broader fire weather concerns to a drying fuelscape across the West. Forecast uncertainty increases as the weekend approaches with a more diffuse, perhaps zonal, pattern returning to the CONUS. ...Day 3/Tuesday - Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... Dry, post-frontal flow in the wake of a deep surface low across the Great Lakes will bring a fire weather threat to portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest where frontal precipitation is minimized and critically dry fuels remain. RH reductions will be limited to 20-30% but northwest winds of 15-25 mph over receptive fuels, supports a continuation (and slight expansion based on latest model guidance) of 40% critical probabilities across the region. ...Day 4/Wednesday... ...Southern Great Basin and Southwest... Fire weather concerns increase across portions of the Southwest and Great Basin ahead of an advancing upper trough and attendant increasing southwest flow aloft. Advection of mid and upper level Pacific moisture and supportive kinematic environment should support some high-based showers and thunderstorms across much of the Intermountain West on Day 4/Wednesday. A 10% probability area for dry thunderstorms has been introduced where fuels are expected to be driest, reaching the 90th percentile by midweek under a few days of abnormally warm temperatures. Farther west, drier southwest flow should impact much of the eastern Great Basin and upper CO River Basin regions allowing for a heightened fire weather concern under a drying/curing fuelscape. A slight expansion of existing 40% critical probabilities has been made into the AZ Strip area. ...Northeastern Montana... A deepening surface low in the lee of the Northern Rockies will promote stronger southerly flow over the northern High Plains on Day 4/Wednesday. Existing dry fuels amid a southerly dry return flow will combine to bring enhanced fire weather concerns to northeastern MT, where 40% critical probabilities have been introduced. ..Williams.. 05/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0196 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE MAF TO 35 S BGS TO 25 NE BGS TO 50 SE LBB. ..JEWELL..05/10/26 ATTN...WFO...FWD...MAF...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC027-035-049-059-081-083-093-095-099-105-133-143-151-193-207- 217-221-235-237-251-253-267-281-307-309-319-327-333-335-353-363- 367-383-399-411-413-415-417-425-429-431-435-441-447-451-503- 102240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BOSQUE BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO CORYELL CROCKETT EASTLAND ERATH FISHER HAMILTON HASKELL HILL HOOD IRION JACK JOHNSON JONES KIMBLE LAMPASAS MCCULLOCH MCLENNAN MASON MENARD MILLS MITCHELL NOLAN PALO PINTO PARKER REAGAN RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SCURRY SHACKELFORD SOMERVELL STEPHENS STERLING SUTTON TAYLOR THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN YOUNG Read more

MD 0696 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0696 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Areas affected...portions of the lower Mississippi River Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 101954Z - 102130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms may bring a risk for isolated damaging wind gusts and small to marginally severe hail this afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...Filtered diurnal heating amid lingering cloud cover is contributing to modest air mass modification across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley in the wake of overnight convection, with latest mesoanalysis indicating MLCAPE has increased to 1250-2000 J/kg across the region. Widely scattered thunderstorm development is ongoing within this air mass along several surface boundaries. While low-level flow remains meager (per the LZK VWP), modest westerly flow aloft is supporting effective bulk shear of 30-35 kts. This will be sufficient to support a mix of multicells and marginal supercell structures through the afternoon. Modestly steep low-level lapse rates (greater than 7 C/km per latest mesoanalysis) may foster an isolated risk for damaging wind gusts. Small to marginally severe hail may also be possible with more robust updrafts despite generally poor mid-level lapse rates. Given the expectation for the severe risk to remain limited in magnitude and coverage, watch issuance is unlikely. ..Chalmers/Gleason.. 05/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 33749274 34059308 34629347 35259358 35669352 35979330 36029287 35949162 35629044 35128973 34628915 34168911 33678930 33328974 33229043 33379135 33749274 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0697 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 196... FOR PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS.
Mesoscale Discussion 0697 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Areas affected...portions of West Texas into Northwest Texas. Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 196... Valid 102011Z - 102145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 196 continues. SUMMARY...Hail producing supercells across West Texas and Northwest Texas are expected to congeal into an MCS by late afternoon/evening with an increasing severe wind threat. DISCUSSION...2 distinct areas of supercell development have emerged near the surface low and near the confluence of the outflow boundary and synoptic front. Elsewhere, convergence does not appear to be sufficient for development at this time. The composite front continues to move south rather quickly across Northwest Texas. Therefore, the tornado threat may be somewhat lower than previously thought as supercells continue to get undercut. However, some tornado threat may exist with the Mitchell county supercell as it interacts with the front. Given the strongly unstable environment and increasing shear (KDYX VWP now sampling 40 knots at 6-7km), the large hail threat will persist for several more hours. In addition, given the development of several supercells in close proximity to one another, upscale growth into one or more southeastward moving clusters/MCSs seems likely by late afternoon. Once this occurs, the large hail threat will likely transition to more of a severe wind threat. ..Bentley/Gleason.. 05/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 32650161 32910091 33119931 32839842 32489750 31489749 30989810 30559961 30450072 30510125 30950188 32650161 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 0695 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 0695 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 101910Z - 102145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated low-topped convection may produce locally strong wind gusts, with an isolated damaging wind gust or two possible. DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery depicts isolated, low-topped convection developing along portions of the Appalachians/Blue Ridge. While low-level moisture will limited ahead of an approaching cold front (surface dewpoints in the 40s to low-50s F), latest mesoanalysis and recent ACARS profiles from DCA/BWI depict weak buoyancy (100-300+ J/kg MLCAPE), steep low-level lapse rates (8.5-9.0 C/km), and deep, well-mixed boundary layers across the region. This will promote some potential for isolated gusty winds, and perhaps a damaging wind gust or two, with any stronger downdrafts as convection spreads eastward across the area. With the severe risk forecast to remain limited in coverage and magnitude, watch issuance is not expected. ..Chalmers/Gleason.. 05/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 39347927 39737824 39917767 40147705 40257666 40447614 40527559 40507519 40357492 40087501 39777529 39477564 39237591 38827640 38287730 37917828 37677898 37717973 37878041 38078068 38328071 38898012 39347927 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail (some 2+ inches) and numerous severe/damaging wind gusts (isolated 75+ mph) are expected this afternoon/evening across parts of west-central to central Texas. A couple of tornadoes also appear possible across parts of west-central Texas along/near a front. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains largely on track with only minor adjustments required based on recent observed trends. The convectively reinforced cold front across northwest TX continues to surge south faster than anticipated by morning guidance. Nonetheless, elevated supercell development is ongoing immediately north of the boundary where MUCAPE was recently analyzed near 2000 J/kg. Consequently, severe hail probabilities (and the ENH categorical bounds) have largely been left in place with only a southward reduction in the wind and tornado probabilities based on the expected 20 UTC frontal position. Across central to southern TX, recent HRRR/RRFS time-lagged ensembles depict the potential for 75+ mph winds across the Austin/San Antonio region and southward into south TX late tonight. This signal appears reasonable given the expected evolution of the eventual MCS and downstream environment (both sampled by recent ACARS soundings and forecast by short-range guidance). The 15% wind and Intensity Level 1 contours have been expanded south to address this potential. Across northeast TX, the remnants of an early-morning MCS have transitioned into a single organized supercell that has begun weakening over the past 20-30 minutes. However, attempts at new convective development are noted along the outflow boundary to the south of the decaying supercell. With temperatures in the mid 80s along/south of the boundary, lingering inhibition should be minimized and may allow for additional strong/severe thunderstorms through early evening with an attendant threat for severe hail/wind. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion below and MCDs 693, 694, and 695 for additional short-term details. ..Moore.. 05/10/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026/ ...Texas into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... Severe potential today will be complicated by ongoing thunderstorms along/near the Red River and a convectively reinforced outflow boundary across the ArkLaTex/lower MS Valley. In general, a favorable setup for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds remains apparent this afternoon/evening across parts of west-central into north TX to the south of current convective activity, along with the potential for large to very large hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes with initial supercells that may develop. Recent surface analysis shows a low over northwest TX, with a dryline extending southward to the Big Bend region. A cold front arcing northeastward from the low across western north TX into southern OK and western/northern AR will likely serve as a focus for additional robust thunderstorm development this afternoon. The observed 12Z FWD sounding sampled the pre-convective airmass well, with steep mid-level lapse rates atop a rather moist low-level airmass aiding MUCAPE around 2500 J/kg. There is some uncertainty regarding airmass recovery with eastward extent towards the ArkLaTex given a notable outflow boundary from earlier convection noted on latest visible satellite imagery extending from north-central to east-central TX. Still, this boundary seems to have stalled recently, with mostly clear skies to its north across northeast TX ahead of ongoing thunderstorms in north-central TX. Current expectations are for moderate to strong instability to develop this afternoon as diurnal heating occurs across west-central to north TX, with the greatest instability focused south of the cold front/outflow and east of the dryline. Stronger west-northwesterly mid-level flow associated with a southeastward-moving shortwave trough may tend to remain displaced along and slightly to the north of the cold front through the day. Still, sufficient overlap of modestly enhanced mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern portions of the warm sector in TX. This shear should support some supercells with initial development, particularly across parts of west-central into north-central TX. Large to isolated very large hail (2+ inches) may occur with these supercells, before convection quickly grows upscale into an intense bowing cluster. A narrow zone of tornado potential is also apparent with the supercells across parts of west-central TX near the sagging front, where low-level shear will be locally enhanced by east-northeasterly near-surface winds. Scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds are expected across much of central TX after this mode transition occurs. With ample instability and a highly organized cold pool expected, some of these gusts could exceed 75 mph on a localized basis. The severe/damaging wind threat should continue through the evening as the bowing cluster spreads south-southeastward across much of TX. Eventual weakening is forecast late tonight into early Monday morning, although at least an isolated damaging wind threat may persist into south/coastal TX through the end of the period. Lower confidence in organized severe potential exists with eastward extent into the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley, as ongoing cloud cover and outflow from earlier convection may inhibit diurnal heating and the development of any more than weak instability this afternoon. Still, some chance for redevelopment remains apparent along/east of the cold front, so severe hail/wind probabilities have been maintained with adjustments based on current observations and latest short-term guidance. ...Central New Mexico into Far West Texas... Low-level orographic ascent with the surging cold front should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing across central NM into parts of far west TX this afternoon and evening. Cool temperatures aloft will aid in the development of weak instability, even with limited low-level moisture. Around 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear should foster organized updrafts, with the strongest cores capable of producing isolated hail and occasional severe/damaging winds. ...Florida... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop along the stalled front this afternoon across the northern FL Peninsula, and southward along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass, with MLCAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg, should support water-loaded downdrafts capable of producing locally damaging winds. Sufficient deep-layer shear may also foster sufficient updraft organization for isolated hail with the more robust cores. ...Mid-Atlantic... Strong to locally damaging winds may occur with high-based convection that forms on the Appalachians/Blue Ridge this afternoon and subsequently spreads east-northeastward along/ahead of a cold front. While instability will remain weak, a deeply mixed boundary layer should encourage gusty downdraft winds to reach the surface in a narrow corridor where a Marginal Risk has been introduced. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail (some 2+ inches) and numerous severe/damaging wind gusts (isolated 75+ mph) are expected this afternoon/evening across parts of west-central to central Texas. A couple of tornadoes also appear possible across parts of west-central Texas along/near a front. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains largely on track with only minor adjustments required based on recent observed trends. The convectively reinforced cold front across northwest TX continues to surge south faster than anticipated by morning guidance. Nonetheless, elevated supercell development is ongoing immediately north of the boundary where MUCAPE was recently analyzed near 2000 J/kg. Consequently, severe hail probabilities (and the ENH categorical bounds) have largely been left in place with only a southward reduction in the wind and tornado probabilities based on the expected 20 UTC frontal position. Across central to southern TX, recent HRRR/RRFS time-lagged ensembles depict the potential for 75+ mph winds across the Austin/San Antonio region and southward into south TX late tonight. This signal appears reasonable given the expected evolution of the eventual MCS and downstream environment (both sampled by recent ACARS soundings and forecast by short-range guidance). The 15% wind and Intensity Level 1 contours have been expanded south to address this potential. Across northeast TX, the remnants of an early-morning MCS have transitioned into a single organized supercell that has begun weakening over the past 20-30 minutes. However, attempts at new convective development are noted along the outflow boundary to the south of the decaying supercell. With temperatures in the mid 80s along/south of the boundary, lingering inhibition should be minimized and may allow for additional strong/severe thunderstorms through early evening with an attendant threat for severe hail/wind. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion below and MCDs 693, 694, and 695 for additional short-term details. ..Moore.. 05/10/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026/ ...Texas into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... Severe potential today will be complicated by ongoing thunderstorms along/near the Red River and a convectively reinforced outflow boundary across the ArkLaTex/lower MS Valley. In general, a favorable setup for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds remains apparent this afternoon/evening across parts of west-central into north TX to the south of current convective activity, along with the potential for large to very large hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes with initial supercells that may develop. Recent surface analysis shows a low over northwest TX, with a dryline extending southward to the Big Bend region. A cold front arcing northeastward from the low across western north TX into southern OK and western/northern AR will likely serve as a focus for additional robust thunderstorm development this afternoon. The observed 12Z FWD sounding sampled the pre-convective airmass well, with steep mid-level lapse rates atop a rather moist low-level airmass aiding MUCAPE around 2500 J/kg. There is some uncertainty regarding airmass recovery with eastward extent towards the ArkLaTex given a notable outflow boundary from earlier convection noted on latest visible satellite imagery extending from north-central to east-central TX. Still, this boundary seems to have stalled recently, with mostly clear skies to its north across northeast TX ahead of ongoing thunderstorms in north-central TX. Current expectations are for moderate to strong instability to develop this afternoon as diurnal heating occurs across west-central to north TX, with the greatest instability focused south of the cold front/outflow and east of the dryline. Stronger west-northwesterly mid-level flow associated with a southeastward-moving shortwave trough may tend to remain displaced along and slightly to the north of the cold front through the day. Still, sufficient overlap of modestly enhanced mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern portions of the warm sector in TX. This shear should support some supercells with initial development, particularly across parts of west-central into north-central TX. Large to isolated very large hail (2+ inches) may occur with these supercells, before convection quickly grows upscale into an intense bowing cluster. A narrow zone of tornado potential is also apparent with the supercells across parts of west-central TX near the sagging front, where low-level shear will be locally enhanced by east-northeasterly near-surface winds. Scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds are expected across much of central TX after this mode transition occurs. With ample instability and a highly organized cold pool expected, some of these gusts could exceed 75 mph on a localized basis. The severe/damaging wind threat should continue through the evening as the bowing cluster spreads south-southeastward across much of TX. Eventual weakening is forecast late tonight into early Monday morning, although at least an isolated damaging wind threat may persist into south/coastal TX through the end of the period. Lower confidence in organized severe potential exists with eastward extent into the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley, as ongoing cloud cover and outflow from earlier convection may inhibit diurnal heating and the development of any more than weak instability this afternoon. Still, some chance for redevelopment remains apparent along/east of the cold front, so severe hail/wind probabilities have been maintained with adjustments based on current observations and latest short-term guidance. ...Central New Mexico into Far West Texas... Low-level orographic ascent with the surging cold front should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing across central NM into parts of far west TX this afternoon and evening. Cool temperatures aloft will aid in the development of weak instability, even with limited low-level moisture. Around 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear should foster organized updrafts, with the strongest cores capable of producing isolated hail and occasional severe/damaging winds. ...Florida... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop along the stalled front this afternoon across the northern FL Peninsula, and southward along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass, with MLCAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg, should support water-loaded downdrafts capable of producing locally damaging winds. Sufficient deep-layer shear may also foster sufficient updraft organization for isolated hail with the more robust cores. ...Mid-Atlantic... Strong to locally damaging winds may occur with high-based convection that forms on the Appalachians/Blue Ridge this afternoon and subsequently spreads east-northeastward along/ahead of a cold front. While instability will remain weak, a deeply mixed boundary layer should encourage gusty downdraft winds to reach the surface in a narrow corridor where a Marginal Risk has been introduced. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail (some 2+ inches) and numerous severe/damaging wind gusts (isolated 75+ mph) are expected this afternoon/evening across parts of west-central to central Texas. A couple of tornadoes also appear possible across parts of west-central Texas along/near a front. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains largely on track with only minor adjustments required based on recent observed trends. The convectively reinforced cold front across northwest TX continues to surge south faster than anticipated by morning guidance. Nonetheless, elevated supercell development is ongoing immediately north of the boundary where MUCAPE was recently analyzed near 2000 J/kg. Consequently, severe hail probabilities (and the ENH categorical bounds) have largely been left in place with only a southward reduction in the wind and tornado probabilities based on the expected 20 UTC frontal position. Across central to southern TX, recent HRRR/RRFS time-lagged ensembles depict the potential for 75+ mph winds across the Austin/San Antonio region and southward into south TX late tonight. This signal appears reasonable given the expected evolution of the eventual MCS and downstream environment (both sampled by recent ACARS soundings and forecast by short-range guidance). The 15% wind and Intensity Level 1 contours have been expanded south to address this potential. Across northeast TX, the remnants of an early-morning MCS have transitioned into a single organized supercell that has begun weakening over the past 20-30 minutes. However, attempts at new convective development are noted along the outflow boundary to the south of the decaying supercell. With temperatures in the mid 80s along/south of the boundary, lingering inhibition should be minimized and may allow for additional strong/severe thunderstorms through early evening with an attendant threat for severe hail/wind. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion below and MCDs 693, 694, and 695 for additional short-term details. ..Moore.. 05/10/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026/ ...Texas into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... Severe potential today will be complicated by ongoing thunderstorms along/near the Red River and a convectively reinforced outflow boundary across the ArkLaTex/lower MS Valley. In general, a favorable setup for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds remains apparent this afternoon/evening across parts of west-central into north TX to the south of current convective activity, along with the potential for large to very large hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes with initial supercells that may develop. Recent surface analysis shows a low over northwest TX, with a dryline extending southward to the Big Bend region. A cold front arcing northeastward from the low across western north TX into southern OK and western/northern AR will likely serve as a focus for additional robust thunderstorm development this afternoon. The observed 12Z FWD sounding sampled the pre-convective airmass well, with steep mid-level lapse rates atop a rather moist low-level airmass aiding MUCAPE around 2500 J/kg. There is some uncertainty regarding airmass recovery with eastward extent towards the ArkLaTex given a notable outflow boundary from earlier convection noted on latest visible satellite imagery extending from north-central to east-central TX. Still, this boundary seems to have stalled recently, with mostly clear skies to its north across northeast TX ahead of ongoing thunderstorms in north-central TX. Current expectations are for moderate to strong instability to develop this afternoon as diurnal heating occurs across west-central to north TX, with the greatest instability focused south of the cold front/outflow and east of the dryline. Stronger west-northwesterly mid-level flow associated with a southeastward-moving shortwave trough may tend to remain displaced along and slightly to the north of the cold front through the day. Still, sufficient overlap of modestly enhanced mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern portions of the warm sector in TX. This shear should support some supercells with initial development, particularly across parts of west-central into north-central TX. Large to isolated very large hail (2+ inches) may occur with these supercells, before convection quickly grows upscale into an intense bowing cluster. A narrow zone of tornado potential is also apparent with the supercells across parts of west-central TX near the sagging front, where low-level shear will be locally enhanced by east-northeasterly near-surface winds. Scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds are expected across much of central TX after this mode transition occurs. With ample instability and a highly organized cold pool expected, some of these gusts could exceed 75 mph on a localized basis. The severe/damaging wind threat should continue through the evening as the bowing cluster spreads south-southeastward across much of TX. Eventual weakening is forecast late tonight into early Monday morning, although at least an isolated damaging wind threat may persist into south/coastal TX through the end of the period. Lower confidence in organized severe potential exists with eastward extent into the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley, as ongoing cloud cover and outflow from earlier convection may inhibit diurnal heating and the development of any more than weak instability this afternoon. Still, some chance for redevelopment remains apparent along/east of the cold front, so severe hail/wind probabilities have been maintained with adjustments based on current observations and latest short-term guidance. ...Central New Mexico into Far West Texas... Low-level orographic ascent with the surging cold front should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing across central NM into parts of far west TX this afternoon and evening. Cool temperatures aloft will aid in the development of weak instability, even with limited low-level moisture. Around 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear should foster organized updrafts, with the strongest cores capable of producing isolated hail and occasional severe/damaging winds. ...Florida... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop along the stalled front this afternoon across the northern FL Peninsula, and southward along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass, with MLCAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg, should support water-loaded downdrafts capable of producing locally damaging winds. Sufficient deep-layer shear may also foster sufficient updraft organization for isolated hail with the more robust cores. ...Mid-Atlantic... Strong to locally damaging winds may occur with high-based convection that forms on the Appalachians/Blue Ridge this afternoon and subsequently spreads east-northeastward along/ahead of a cold front. While instability will remain weak, a deeply mixed boundary layer should encourage gusty downdraft winds to reach the surface in a narrow corridor where a Marginal Risk has been introduced. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail (some 2+ inches) and numerous severe/damaging wind gusts (isolated 75+ mph) are expected this afternoon/evening across parts of west-central to central Texas. A couple of tornadoes also appear possible across parts of west-central Texas along/near a front. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains largely on track with only minor adjustments required based on recent observed trends. The convectively reinforced cold front across northwest TX continues to surge south faster than anticipated by morning guidance. Nonetheless, elevated supercell development is ongoing immediately north of the boundary where MUCAPE was recently analyzed near 2000 J/kg. Consequently, severe hail probabilities (and the ENH categorical bounds) have largely been left in place with only a southward reduction in the wind and tornado probabilities based on the expected 20 UTC frontal position. Across central to southern TX, recent HRRR/RRFS time-lagged ensembles depict the potential for 75+ mph winds across the Austin/San Antonio region and southward into south TX late tonight. This signal appears reasonable given the expected evolution of the eventual MCS and downstream environment (both sampled by recent ACARS soundings and forecast by short-range guidance). The 15% wind and Intensity Level 1 contours have been expanded south to address this potential. Across northeast TX, the remnants of an early-morning MCS have transitioned into a single organized supercell that has begun weakening over the past 20-30 minutes. However, attempts at new convective development are noted along the outflow boundary to the south of the decaying supercell. With temperatures in the mid 80s along/south of the boundary, lingering inhibition should be minimized and may allow for additional strong/severe thunderstorms through early evening with an attendant threat for severe hail/wind. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion below and MCDs 693, 694, and 695 for additional short-term details. ..Moore.. 05/10/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026/ ...Texas into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... Severe potential today will be complicated by ongoing thunderstorms along/near the Red River and a convectively reinforced outflow boundary across the ArkLaTex/lower MS Valley. In general, a favorable setup for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds remains apparent this afternoon/evening across parts of west-central into north TX to the south of current convective activity, along with the potential for large to very large hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes with initial supercells that may develop. Recent surface analysis shows a low over northwest TX, with a dryline extending southward to the Big Bend region. A cold front arcing northeastward from the low across western north TX into southern OK and western/northern AR will likely serve as a focus for additional robust thunderstorm development this afternoon. The observed 12Z FWD sounding sampled the pre-convective airmass well, with steep mid-level lapse rates atop a rather moist low-level airmass aiding MUCAPE around 2500 J/kg. There is some uncertainty regarding airmass recovery with eastward extent towards the ArkLaTex given a notable outflow boundary from earlier convection noted on latest visible satellite imagery extending from north-central to east-central TX. Still, this boundary seems to have stalled recently, with mostly clear skies to its north across northeast TX ahead of ongoing thunderstorms in north-central TX. Current expectations are for moderate to strong instability to develop this afternoon as diurnal heating occurs across west-central to north TX, with the greatest instability focused south of the cold front/outflow and east of the dryline. Stronger west-northwesterly mid-level flow associated with a southeastward-moving shortwave trough may tend to remain displaced along and slightly to the north of the cold front through the day. Still, sufficient overlap of modestly enhanced mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern portions of the warm sector in TX. This shear should support some supercells with initial development, particularly across parts of west-central into north-central TX. Large to isolated very large hail (2+ inches) may occur with these supercells, before convection quickly grows upscale into an intense bowing cluster. A narrow zone of tornado potential is also apparent with the supercells across parts of west-central TX near the sagging front, where low-level shear will be locally enhanced by east-northeasterly near-surface winds. Scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds are expected across much of central TX after this mode transition occurs. With ample instability and a highly organized cold pool expected, some of these gusts could exceed 75 mph on a localized basis. The severe/damaging wind threat should continue through the evening as the bowing cluster spreads south-southeastward across much of TX. Eventual weakening is forecast late tonight into early Monday morning, although at least an isolated damaging wind threat may persist into south/coastal TX through the end of the period. Lower confidence in organized severe potential exists with eastward extent into the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley, as ongoing cloud cover and outflow from earlier convection may inhibit diurnal heating and the development of any more than weak instability this afternoon. Still, some chance for redevelopment remains apparent along/east of the cold front, so severe hail/wind probabilities have been maintained with adjustments based on current observations and latest short-term guidance. ...Central New Mexico into Far West Texas... Low-level orographic ascent with the surging cold front should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing across central NM into parts of far west TX this afternoon and evening. Cool temperatures aloft will aid in the development of weak instability, even with limited low-level moisture. Around 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear should foster organized updrafts, with the strongest cores capable of producing isolated hail and occasional severe/damaging winds. ...Florida... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop along the stalled front this afternoon across the northern FL Peninsula, and southward along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass, with MLCAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg, should support water-loaded downdrafts capable of producing locally damaging winds. Sufficient deep-layer shear may also foster sufficient updraft organization for isolated hail with the more robust cores. ...Mid-Atlantic... Strong to locally damaging winds may occur with high-based convection that forms on the Appalachians/Blue Ridge this afternoon and subsequently spreads east-northeastward along/ahead of a cold front. While instability will remain weak, a deeply mixed boundary layer should encourage gusty downdraft winds to reach the surface in a narrow corridor where a Marginal Risk has been introduced. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail (some 2+ inches) and numerous severe/damaging wind gusts (isolated 75+ mph) are expected this afternoon/evening across parts of west-central to central Texas. A couple of tornadoes also appear possible across parts of west-central Texas along/near a front. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains largely on track with only minor adjustments required based on recent observed trends. The convectively reinforced cold front across northwest TX continues to surge south faster than anticipated by morning guidance. Nonetheless, elevated supercell development is ongoing immediately north of the boundary where MUCAPE was recently analyzed near 2000 J/kg. Consequently, severe hail probabilities (and the ENH categorical bounds) have largely been left in place with only a southward reduction in the wind and tornado probabilities based on the expected 20 UTC frontal position. Across central to southern TX, recent HRRR/RRFS time-lagged ensembles depict the potential for 75+ mph winds across the Austin/San Antonio region and southward into south TX late tonight. This signal appears reasonable given the expected evolution of the eventual MCS and downstream environment (both sampled by recent ACARS soundings and forecast by short-range guidance). The 15% wind and Intensity Level 1 contours have been expanded south to address this potential. Across northeast TX, the remnants of an early-morning MCS have transitioned into a single organized supercell that has begun weakening over the past 20-30 minutes. However, attempts at new convective development are noted along the outflow boundary to the south of the decaying supercell. With temperatures in the mid 80s along/south of the boundary, lingering inhibition should be minimized and may allow for additional strong/severe thunderstorms through early evening with an attendant threat for severe hail/wind. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion below and MCDs 693, 694, and 695 for additional short-term details. ..Moore.. 05/10/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026/ ...Texas into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... Severe potential today will be complicated by ongoing thunderstorms along/near the Red River and a convectively reinforced outflow boundary across the ArkLaTex/lower MS Valley. In general, a favorable setup for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds remains apparent this afternoon/evening across parts of west-central into north TX to the south of current convective activity, along with the potential for large to very large hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes with initial supercells that may develop. Recent surface analysis shows a low over northwest TX, with a dryline extending southward to the Big Bend region. A cold front arcing northeastward from the low across western north TX into southern OK and western/northern AR will likely serve as a focus for additional robust thunderstorm development this afternoon. The observed 12Z FWD sounding sampled the pre-convective airmass well, with steep mid-level lapse rates atop a rather moist low-level airmass aiding MUCAPE around 2500 J/kg. There is some uncertainty regarding airmass recovery with eastward extent towards the ArkLaTex given a notable outflow boundary from earlier convection noted on latest visible satellite imagery extending from north-central to east-central TX. Still, this boundary seems to have stalled recently, with mostly clear skies to its north across northeast TX ahead of ongoing thunderstorms in north-central TX. Current expectations are for moderate to strong instability to develop this afternoon as diurnal heating occurs across west-central to north TX, with the greatest instability focused south of the cold front/outflow and east of the dryline. Stronger west-northwesterly mid-level flow associated with a southeastward-moving shortwave trough may tend to remain displaced along and slightly to the north of the cold front through the day. Still, sufficient overlap of modestly enhanced mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern portions of the warm sector in TX. This shear should support some supercells with initial development, particularly across parts of west-central into north-central TX. Large to isolated very large hail (2+ inches) may occur with these supercells, before convection quickly grows upscale into an intense bowing cluster. A narrow zone of tornado potential is also apparent with the supercells across parts of west-central TX near the sagging front, where low-level shear will be locally enhanced by east-northeasterly near-surface winds. Scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds are expected across much of central TX after this mode transition occurs. With ample instability and a highly organized cold pool expected, some of these gusts could exceed 75 mph on a localized basis. The severe/damaging wind threat should continue through the evening as the bowing cluster spreads south-southeastward across much of TX. Eventual weakening is forecast late tonight into early Monday morning, although at least an isolated damaging wind threat may persist into south/coastal TX through the end of the period. Lower confidence in organized severe potential exists with eastward extent into the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley, as ongoing cloud cover and outflow from earlier convection may inhibit diurnal heating and the development of any more than weak instability this afternoon. Still, some chance for redevelopment remains apparent along/east of the cold front, so severe hail/wind probabilities have been maintained with adjustments based on current observations and latest short-term guidance. ...Central New Mexico into Far West Texas... Low-level orographic ascent with the surging cold front should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing across central NM into parts of far west TX this afternoon and evening. Cool temperatures aloft will aid in the development of weak instability, even with limited low-level moisture. Around 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear should foster organized updrafts, with the strongest cores capable of producing isolated hail and occasional severe/damaging winds. ...Florida... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop along the stalled front this afternoon across the northern FL Peninsula, and southward along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass, with MLCAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg, should support water-loaded downdrafts capable of producing locally damaging winds. Sufficient deep-layer shear may also foster sufficient updraft organization for isolated hail with the more robust cores. ...Mid-Atlantic... Strong to locally damaging winds may occur with high-based convection that forms on the Appalachians/Blue Ridge this afternoon and subsequently spreads east-northeastward along/ahead of a cold front. While instability will remain weak, a deeply mixed boundary layer should encourage gusty downdraft winds to reach the surface in a narrow corridor where a Marginal Risk has been introduced. Read more

WW 0196 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 196 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..05/10/26 ATTN...WFO...FWD...MAF...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC027-033-035-049-059-081-083-093-095-099-105-133-143-151-173- 193-207-217-221-227-235-237-251-253-267-281-307-309-319-327-333- 335-353-363-367-383-399-411-413-415-417-425-429-431-435-441-447- 451-503-102040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BORDEN BOSQUE BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO CORYELL CROCKETT EASTLAND ERATH FISHER GLASSCOCK HAMILTON HASKELL HILL HOOD HOWARD IRION JACK JOHNSON JONES KIMBLE LAMPASAS MCCULLOCH MCLENNAN MASON MENARD MILLS MITCHELL NOLAN PALO PINTO PARKER REAGAN RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SCURRY SHACKELFORD SOMERVELL STEPHENS STERLING SUTTON TAYLOR THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN YOUNG Read more

WW 0196 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 196 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..05/10/26 ATTN...WFO...FWD...MAF...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC027-033-035-049-059-081-083-093-095-099-105-133-143-151-173- 193-207-217-221-227-235-237-251-253-267-281-307-309-319-327-333- 335-353-363-367-383-399-411-413-415-417-425-429-431-435-441-447- 451-503-102040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BORDEN BOSQUE BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO CORYELL CROCKETT EASTLAND ERATH FISHER GLASSCOCK HAMILTON HASKELL HILL HOOD HOWARD IRION JACK JOHNSON JONES KIMBLE LAMPASAS MCCULLOCH MCLENNAN MASON MENARD MILLS MITCHELL NOLAN PALO PINTO PARKER REAGAN RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SCURRY SHACKELFORD SOMERVELL STEPHENS STERLING SUTTON TAYLOR THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN YOUNG Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... ...Portions of the Northern and Central Plains... No significant changes to the outlook were made. A mid-level short wave and attendant 60-70 knot jet max enters the northern High Plains Sunday. At the surface, a deepening lee surface trough and evolving cold front will translate eastward into Upper Midwest by early Tuesday morning. A well mixed boundary layer collocated with stronger flow aloft will support a corridor of stronger west-northwest winds of 20-25 mph across northeastern MT and western ND. These winds aligned with RH minima of 15-25% will support critical fire weather conditions amid very dry fuels. Elevated fire weather concerns including wind speeds approaching 20 mph from the west/northwest will exist across much of the High Plains of Montana into western ND surrounding the higher magnitude wind corridor. There is a potential for elevated convection across northern ND as the surface trough and cold front push into Northern Plains, although expected cloud cover could inhibit broader destabilization and thus lightning production. South of the cold front, downslope enhanced drying amid deep layer westerly flow will affect portions of western SD and northern NE. West winds of around 15 mph and RH as low as 10% will promote several hours of elevated fire weather conditions amid receptive fuels Monday. ..Williams.. 05/10/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of an expansive upper ridge over the West, a robust midlevel trough and accompanying 60-70-kt jet streak will advance eastward across MT into ND during peak heating. At the same time, a related surface low will move eastward from SK into MB Canada, while a southward-extending lee trough deepens along the northern/central Plains -- before being overtaken by a surface front. This large-scale pattern will favor a broad area of elevated conditions across parts of the northern and central Plains during the afternoon, with critical conditions expected over eastern MT into west-central ND. ...Northern into the Central Plains... Ample diurnal heating and downslope flow trajectories will promote deep boundary-layer mixing along and west of the lee trough during the afternoon, where upper 70s to lower/middle 80s temperatures and 15-25 percent RH are expected. Over the northern Plains, a combination of a tight pressure gradient and strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will promote 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 20-25 percent RH. The greatest overlap of strong surface winds and low RH atop critically receptive fuels is expected from eastern MT into west-central ND -- where Critical highlights are in place. Farther south, a slightly weaker pressure gradient and moderate flow aloft will favor 15 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds, with 10-15 percent RH. Given receptive fuels here as well, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. A north-northwesterly wind shift is expected during the evening behind the front, with increasing RH and cooling temperatures. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... ...Portions of the Northern and Central Plains... No significant changes to the outlook were made. A mid-level short wave and attendant 60-70 knot jet max enters the northern High Plains Sunday. At the surface, a deepening lee surface trough and evolving cold front will translate eastward into Upper Midwest by early Tuesday morning. A well mixed boundary layer collocated with stronger flow aloft will support a corridor of stronger west-northwest winds of 20-25 mph across northeastern MT and western ND. These winds aligned with RH minima of 15-25% will support critical fire weather conditions amid very dry fuels. Elevated fire weather concerns including wind speeds approaching 20 mph from the west/northwest will exist across much of the High Plains of Montana into western ND surrounding the higher magnitude wind corridor. There is a potential for elevated convection across northern ND as the surface trough and cold front push into Northern Plains, although expected cloud cover could inhibit broader destabilization and thus lightning production. South of the cold front, downslope enhanced drying amid deep layer westerly flow will affect portions of western SD and northern NE. West winds of around 15 mph and RH as low as 10% will promote several hours of elevated fire weather conditions amid receptive fuels Monday. ..Williams.. 05/10/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of an expansive upper ridge over the West, a robust midlevel trough and accompanying 60-70-kt jet streak will advance eastward across MT into ND during peak heating. At the same time, a related surface low will move eastward from SK into MB Canada, while a southward-extending lee trough deepens along the northern/central Plains -- before being overtaken by a surface front. This large-scale pattern will favor a broad area of elevated conditions across parts of the northern and central Plains during the afternoon, with critical conditions expected over eastern MT into west-central ND. ...Northern into the Central Plains... Ample diurnal heating and downslope flow trajectories will promote deep boundary-layer mixing along and west of the lee trough during the afternoon, where upper 70s to lower/middle 80s temperatures and 15-25 percent RH are expected. Over the northern Plains, a combination of a tight pressure gradient and strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will promote 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 20-25 percent RH. The greatest overlap of strong surface winds and low RH atop critically receptive fuels is expected from eastern MT into west-central ND -- where Critical highlights are in place. Farther south, a slightly weaker pressure gradient and moderate flow aloft will favor 15 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds, with 10-15 percent RH. Given receptive fuels here as well, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. A north-northwesterly wind shift is expected during the evening behind the front, with increasing RH and cooling temperatures. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... ...Portions of the Northern and Central Plains... No significant changes to the outlook were made. A mid-level short wave and attendant 60-70 knot jet max enters the northern High Plains Sunday. At the surface, a deepening lee surface trough and evolving cold front will translate eastward into Upper Midwest by early Tuesday morning. A well mixed boundary layer collocated with stronger flow aloft will support a corridor of stronger west-northwest winds of 20-25 mph across northeastern MT and western ND. These winds aligned with RH minima of 15-25% will support critical fire weather conditions amid very dry fuels. Elevated fire weather concerns including wind speeds approaching 20 mph from the west/northwest will exist across much of the High Plains of Montana into western ND surrounding the higher magnitude wind corridor. There is a potential for elevated convection across northern ND as the surface trough and cold front push into Northern Plains, although expected cloud cover could inhibit broader destabilization and thus lightning production. South of the cold front, downslope enhanced drying amid deep layer westerly flow will affect portions of western SD and northern NE. West winds of around 15 mph and RH as low as 10% will promote several hours of elevated fire weather conditions amid receptive fuels Monday. ..Williams.. 05/10/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of an expansive upper ridge over the West, a robust midlevel trough and accompanying 60-70-kt jet streak will advance eastward across MT into ND during peak heating. At the same time, a related surface low will move eastward from SK into MB Canada, while a southward-extending lee trough deepens along the northern/central Plains -- before being overtaken by a surface front. This large-scale pattern will favor a broad area of elevated conditions across parts of the northern and central Plains during the afternoon, with critical conditions expected over eastern MT into west-central ND. ...Northern into the Central Plains... Ample diurnal heating and downslope flow trajectories will promote deep boundary-layer mixing along and west of the lee trough during the afternoon, where upper 70s to lower/middle 80s temperatures and 15-25 percent RH are expected. Over the northern Plains, a combination of a tight pressure gradient and strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will promote 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 20-25 percent RH. The greatest overlap of strong surface winds and low RH atop critically receptive fuels is expected from eastern MT into west-central ND -- where Critical highlights are in place. Farther south, a slightly weaker pressure gradient and moderate flow aloft will favor 15 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds, with 10-15 percent RH. Given receptive fuels here as well, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. A north-northwesterly wind shift is expected during the evening behind the front, with increasing RH and cooling temperatures. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more