Storm Prediction Center

MD 1353 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 403... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 1353 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Missouri...southern Illinois...western Kentucky...and northern Tennessee Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 403... Valid 272036Z - 272200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 403 continues. SUMMARY...Clusters of storms have produced a couple damaging gusts across portions of southeastern Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northern Tennessee. Additional redevelopment is possible to the west. DISCUSSION...An MCV is tracking eastward across portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley this afternoon, and a compact but relatively intense mid-level jet streak of 50+ kts is being sampled by the KPAH and KHPX VWPs. This is contributing to relatively strong bulk shear of 30-40 kts across the region, enough for occasional mini-supercell structures to appear on WSR-88Ds. Given the relatively strong mid-level flow a few damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two may continue to occur with this activity. Additional activity may develop across portions of southern Missouri in association with another MCV and move into the western portions of Watch 403 later this afternoon and evening. Latest HRRR and RRFS runs are split on whether this actually occurs, and visible satellite in the area shows widespread cloud cover with cumulus development not looking particularly imminent. However, should additional development occur, the environment will continue to be favorable for additional damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ..Supinie/Guyer.. 06/27/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...LSX... LAT...LON 38218917 38508797 38258672 37848598 37268529 36448523 36018641 36158779 36408921 36879006 37609020 38028967 38218917 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0407 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0407 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0407 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0407 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 407 SEVERE TSTM CO NE 272115Z - 280500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 407 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Northeast Colorado Western Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...At least widely scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop, potentially including a few higher-based supercells. Large hail and severe-caliber winds are expected to be the primary hazard. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles north of Scottsbluff NE to 45 miles south southwest of North Platte NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 403...WW 404...WW 405...WW 406... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will dive into the Interior West on Day 3/Monday, promoting strong southwesterly flow across the Southwest into the central Rockies before gradually exiting the region on Day 4/Tuesday. Persistent troughing, enhanced flow aloft, and an established dry airmass will allow fire weather threats to continue through next week across the Great Basin and Southwest. Meanwhile, a strong ridge of high pressure will build across the central-eastern CONUS through the forecast period, promoting widespread above normal temperatures with mostly dry conditions. ...Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday... Elevated southwesterly flow associated with persistent upper-level troughing will maintain fire weather concerns across the Southwest and Great Basin early next week. Hot, dry, and breezy conditions (albeit weaker than previous days) will further intensify the fire environment where extremely dry fuels exist, maintaining 40% Critical probabilities. ...Days 6-7/Thursday-Friday... Ensembles depict dry and breezy conditions may continue across the southwestern CONUS through the end of next week. As the western U.S. upper trough begins to lift northward, resultant accelerating south-southwesterly flow aloft should permit fire weather concerns to return across the Southwest and Great Basin. As such, 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced. The spatial extent of these probabilities may change in future outlooks as the progression of the overall synoptic pattern is better resolved. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/27/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will dive into the Interior West on Day 3/Monday, promoting strong southwesterly flow across the Southwest into the central Rockies before gradually exiting the region on Day 4/Tuesday. Persistent troughing, enhanced flow aloft, and an established dry airmass will allow fire weather threats to continue through next week across the Great Basin and Southwest. Meanwhile, a strong ridge of high pressure will build across the central-eastern CONUS through the forecast period, promoting widespread above normal temperatures with mostly dry conditions. ...Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday... Elevated southwesterly flow associated with persistent upper-level troughing will maintain fire weather concerns across the Southwest and Great Basin early next week. Hot, dry, and breezy conditions (albeit weaker than previous days) will further intensify the fire environment where extremely dry fuels exist, maintaining 40% Critical probabilities. ...Days 6-7/Thursday-Friday... Ensembles depict dry and breezy conditions may continue across the southwestern CONUS through the end of next week. As the western U.S. upper trough begins to lift northward, resultant accelerating south-southwesterly flow aloft should permit fire weather concerns to return across the Southwest and Great Basin. As such, 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced. The spatial extent of these probabilities may change in future outlooks as the progression of the overall synoptic pattern is better resolved. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/27/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will dive into the Interior West on Day 3/Monday, promoting strong southwesterly flow across the Southwest into the central Rockies before gradually exiting the region on Day 4/Tuesday. Persistent troughing, enhanced flow aloft, and an established dry airmass will allow fire weather threats to continue through next week across the Great Basin and Southwest. Meanwhile, a strong ridge of high pressure will build across the central-eastern CONUS through the forecast period, promoting widespread above normal temperatures with mostly dry conditions. ...Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday... Elevated southwesterly flow associated with persistent upper-level troughing will maintain fire weather concerns across the Southwest and Great Basin early next week. Hot, dry, and breezy conditions (albeit weaker than previous days) will further intensify the fire environment where extremely dry fuels exist, maintaining 40% Critical probabilities. ...Days 6-7/Thursday-Friday... Ensembles depict dry and breezy conditions may continue across the southwestern CONUS through the end of next week. As the western U.S. upper trough begins to lift northward, resultant accelerating south-southwesterly flow aloft should permit fire weather concerns to return across the Southwest and Great Basin. As such, 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced. The spatial extent of these probabilities may change in future outlooks as the progression of the overall synoptic pattern is better resolved. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/27/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will dive into the Interior West on Day 3/Monday, promoting strong southwesterly flow across the Southwest into the central Rockies before gradually exiting the region on Day 4/Tuesday. Persistent troughing, enhanced flow aloft, and an established dry airmass will allow fire weather threats to continue through next week across the Great Basin and Southwest. Meanwhile, a strong ridge of high pressure will build across the central-eastern CONUS through the forecast period, promoting widespread above normal temperatures with mostly dry conditions. ...Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday... Elevated southwesterly flow associated with persistent upper-level troughing will maintain fire weather concerns across the Southwest and Great Basin early next week. Hot, dry, and breezy conditions (albeit weaker than previous days) will further intensify the fire environment where extremely dry fuels exist, maintaining 40% Critical probabilities. ...Days 6-7/Thursday-Friday... Ensembles depict dry and breezy conditions may continue across the southwestern CONUS through the end of next week. As the western U.S. upper trough begins to lift northward, resultant accelerating south-southwesterly flow aloft should permit fire weather concerns to return across the Southwest and Great Basin. As such, 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced. The spatial extent of these probabilities may change in future outlooks as the progression of the overall synoptic pattern is better resolved. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/27/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0406 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0406 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0406 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0406 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 406 TORNADO ND NE SD 272105Z - 280500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 406 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 305 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western North Dakota Northern Nebraska Western South Dakota * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 90 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Significant severe storms including supercells are expected to develop regionally, with large hail and some tornadoes possible. A prominent damaging wind threat may also unfold into this evening across the western Dakotas. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northeast of Williston ND to 75 miles southeast of Chadron NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 403...WW 404...WW 405... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0404 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 404 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SUPINIE..06/27/26 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 404 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-037-041-051-053-055-061-063-065-069-073-077-079- 083-085-091-093-095-101-105-107-117-125-127-131-135-139-143-145- 147-163-177-181-183-185-187-191-195-272140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CHATHAM CHOWAN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HOKE HYDE JOHNSTON LEE LENOIR MARTIN MOORE NASH NORTHAMPTON ORANGE PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PERSON PITT SAMPSON TYRRELL VANCE WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC550-710-740-810-272140- VA Read more

WW 0404 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 404 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SUPINIE..06/27/26 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 404 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-037-041-051-053-055-061-063-065-069-073-077-079- 083-085-091-093-095-101-105-107-117-125-127-131-135-139-143-145- 147-163-177-181-183-185-187-191-195-272140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CHATHAM CHOWAN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HOKE HYDE JOHNSTON LEE LENOIR MARTIN MOORE NASH NORTHAMPTON ORANGE PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PERSON PITT SAMPSON TYRRELL VANCE WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC550-710-740-810-272140- VA Read more

WW 404 SEVERE TSTM NC VA CW 271845Z - 280100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 404 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern North Carolina Far Southeast Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will continue to develop and spread east-southeastward across the region with wind damage as the primary hazard. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west southwest of Raleigh NC to 25 miles east southeast of Elizabeth City NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 403... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28020. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0403 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 403 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1353 ..SUPINIE..06/27/26 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...MEG...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 403 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-059-069-087-127-151-153-165-181-272140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER GALLATIN HARDIN JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION KYC003-007-031-033-035-039-047-055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139- 141-143-145-149-157-177-183-213-219-221-225-227-233-272140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BALLARD BUTLER CALDWELL CALLOWAY CARLISLE CHRISTIAN CRITTENDEN DAVIESS FULTON GRAVES HENDERSON HICKMAN HOPKINS LIVINGSTON LOGAN LYON MCCRACKEN MCLEAN MARSHALL MUHLENBERG OHIO SIMPSON TODD Read more

WW 0403 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 403 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1353 ..SUPINIE..06/27/26 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...MEG...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 403 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-059-069-087-127-151-153-165-181-272140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER GALLATIN HARDIN JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION KYC003-007-031-033-035-039-047-055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139- 141-143-145-149-157-177-183-213-219-221-225-227-233-272140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BALLARD BUTLER CALDWELL CALLOWAY CARLISLE CHRISTIAN CRITTENDEN DAVIESS FULTON GRAVES HENDERSON HICKMAN HOPKINS LIVINGSTON LOGAN LYON MCCRACKEN MCLEAN MARSHALL MUHLENBERG OHIO SIMPSON TODD Read more

WW 403 SEVERE TSTM IL KY MO TN 271755Z - 280100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 403 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Western and Central Kentucky Far Southeast Missouri Northern Tennessee * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms and potentially some supercells are expected within a very moist environment across the region this afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west southwest of Cape Girardeau MO to 45 miles east northeast of Nashville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29020. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0405 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 405 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MEAD..06/27/26 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 405 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-011-017-025-075-087-103-111-272140- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN CARTER CUSTER FALLON POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD TREASURE YELLOWSTONE WYC005-011-019-033-045-272140- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CROOK JOHNSON SHERIDAN WESTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today across the northern High Plains including northeast Wyoming and eastern Montana into the western Dakotas, with storms capable of very large hail, very strong outflow winds (80+ mph), and tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. The ENH risk was expanded slightly southwestward in northeastern WY, where several discrete supercell have evolved off the Bighorn Mountains -- posing a risk of large to very large hail. In western ND, the CIG1 tornado area was extended slightly northward. Continued diurnal heating amid upper 60s dewpoints will yield moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy and minimal inhibition. Backed surface winds beneath strengthening flow aloft will contribute to favorably curved hodographs. Any storms that can form or move into this environment will conditionally support a strong tornado. Farther east, the SLGT risk was expanded northward in the lower OH Valley. Here, diurnal heating/destabilization of a very moist air mass (upper 70s dewpoints) will continue to support loosely organized thunderstorm clusters capable of producing widely scattered damaging winds this afternoon. ..Weinman.. 06/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026/ ...Northern High Plains this afternoon into tonight... A rather active severe-weather scenario is anticipated regionally later today, including the potential for intense/locally significant severe storms. A lead shortwave trough/speed max will continue to approach through late today, with the exit region of a strong upper-level jet overspreading the region including 50+ kt southwesterlies above 5km AGL. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s F will continue to spread northward regionally, to the east of a deepening surface low across northeast Wyoming toward the far western Dakotas, and a sharpening lee trough/dryline across a more prevalent north/south extent of the High Plains. This low-level moistening will occur beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates emanating from the Great Basin and north-central Rockies. Initial surface-based development is expected near the surface low/trough near the Big Horn Mountains toward the Wyoming/Montana/North Dakota border vicinity. The maturing stronger initial storms will almost certainly be supercellular owing to moderate to large CAPE and a strong wind field. The risk for large to very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) is greatest near this aforementioned border region where supercells are forecast early in the convective life cycle, although additional/somewhat more discrete development will also likely occur a bit later farther southeastward across northwest South Dakota. A few tornadoes are also possible particularly in the more moisture-rich environment near the surface triple point, but relatively large temperature-dewpoint spreads and a transition to upscale growth may temper the tornado threat, particularly with northward extent either side of the Montana/North Dakota border vicinity. As more storms develop leading to storm mergers and coalescing outflow, a linear cluster will likely develop into a maturing/accelerating bow echo into western North Dakota this evening, with significant/intense thunderstorm winds (80+ mph) possible. Severe storms will likely develop eastward tonight across the Dakotas, and prior to that, diurnally enhanced, but more isolated intense, development is plausible as far south as western Nebraska with large hail and damaging winds. ...Northern Intermountain West including northern UT/western WY... Influenced by a lead shortwave trough/speed max associated with the prominent upper-level trough centered over the Pacific Northwest, strong to locally severe thunderstorm potential will probably exist early today. The prolifically strong wind field and modest destabilization will tend to focus today across northern Utah, southeast Idaho into western Wyoming, including the Star Valley vicinity. Severe-caliber wind gusts and some hail may occur. ...Mid-South/Tennessee/southern Kentucky to North Carolina... Multiple MCVs, including across far south-central Missouri and southeast Kansas at midday, will influence the region as they progress east-southward generally toward Kentucky and Tennessee. Related flow enhancement is evident in regional WSR-88d VWP data, and particularly in the 12z Lamont, OK observed sounding (40+ kt 4-9km AGL). See Mesoscale Discussion 1346 for additional short-term details. These MCVs will influence and semi-focus thunderstorm development within a moist and increasingly unstable boundary layer from the southeast Missouri/northeast Arkansas border vicinity into Kentucky and Tennessee. This includes the possibility of some supercells and well-organized clusters in the presence of 35-40 kt effective shear. Pockets of wind damage will be the most common risk, but some tornado potential will exist as well. Additional severe storms capable of wind damage are also expected farther eastward into the Carolinas this afternoon through around mid-evening. ...Texas Panhandle/West Texas late this afternoon/evening... Though forcing for ascent will be weak at best this far south, strong surface heating/mixing along the lee trough/dryline could support high-based thunderstorm development late this afternoon. Inverted-V profiles will favor the potential for isolated severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today across the northern High Plains including northeast Wyoming and eastern Montana into the western Dakotas, with storms capable of very large hail, very strong outflow winds (80+ mph), and tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. The ENH risk was expanded slightly southwestward in northeastern WY, where several discrete supercell have evolved off the Bighorn Mountains -- posing a risk of large to very large hail. In western ND, the CIG1 tornado area was extended slightly northward. Continued diurnal heating amid upper 60s dewpoints will yield moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy and minimal inhibition. Backed surface winds beneath strengthening flow aloft will contribute to favorably curved hodographs. Any storms that can form or move into this environment will conditionally support a strong tornado. Farther east, the SLGT risk was expanded northward in the lower OH Valley. Here, diurnal heating/destabilization of a very moist air mass (upper 70s dewpoints) will continue to support loosely organized thunderstorm clusters capable of producing widely scattered damaging winds this afternoon. ..Weinman.. 06/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026/ ...Northern High Plains this afternoon into tonight... A rather active severe-weather scenario is anticipated regionally later today, including the potential for intense/locally significant severe storms. A lead shortwave trough/speed max will continue to approach through late today, with the exit region of a strong upper-level jet overspreading the region including 50+ kt southwesterlies above 5km AGL. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s F will continue to spread northward regionally, to the east of a deepening surface low across northeast Wyoming toward the far western Dakotas, and a sharpening lee trough/dryline across a more prevalent north/south extent of the High Plains. This low-level moistening will occur beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates emanating from the Great Basin and north-central Rockies. Initial surface-based development is expected near the surface low/trough near the Big Horn Mountains toward the Wyoming/Montana/North Dakota border vicinity. The maturing stronger initial storms will almost certainly be supercellular owing to moderate to large CAPE and a strong wind field. The risk for large to very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) is greatest near this aforementioned border region where supercells are forecast early in the convective life cycle, although additional/somewhat more discrete development will also likely occur a bit later farther southeastward across northwest South Dakota. A few tornadoes are also possible particularly in the more moisture-rich environment near the surface triple point, but relatively large temperature-dewpoint spreads and a transition to upscale growth may temper the tornado threat, particularly with northward extent either side of the Montana/North Dakota border vicinity. As more storms develop leading to storm mergers and coalescing outflow, a linear cluster will likely develop into a maturing/accelerating bow echo into western North Dakota this evening, with significant/intense thunderstorm winds (80+ mph) possible. Severe storms will likely develop eastward tonight across the Dakotas, and prior to that, diurnally enhanced, but more isolated intense, development is plausible as far south as western Nebraska with large hail and damaging winds. ...Northern Intermountain West including northern UT/western WY... Influenced by a lead shortwave trough/speed max associated with the prominent upper-level trough centered over the Pacific Northwest, strong to locally severe thunderstorm potential will probably exist early today. The prolifically strong wind field and modest destabilization will tend to focus today across northern Utah, southeast Idaho into western Wyoming, including the Star Valley vicinity. Severe-caliber wind gusts and some hail may occur. ...Mid-South/Tennessee/southern Kentucky to North Carolina... Multiple MCVs, including across far south-central Missouri and southeast Kansas at midday, will influence the region as they progress east-southward generally toward Kentucky and Tennessee. Related flow enhancement is evident in regional WSR-88d VWP data, and particularly in the 12z Lamont, OK observed sounding (40+ kt 4-9km AGL). See Mesoscale Discussion 1346 for additional short-term details. These MCVs will influence and semi-focus thunderstorm development within a moist and increasingly unstable boundary layer from the southeast Missouri/northeast Arkansas border vicinity into Kentucky and Tennessee. This includes the possibility of some supercells and well-organized clusters in the presence of 35-40 kt effective shear. Pockets of wind damage will be the most common risk, but some tornado potential will exist as well. Additional severe storms capable of wind damage are also expected farther eastward into the Carolinas this afternoon through around mid-evening. ...Texas Panhandle/West Texas late this afternoon/evening... Though forcing for ascent will be weak at best this far south, strong surface heating/mixing along the lee trough/dryline could support high-based thunderstorm development late this afternoon. Inverted-V profiles will favor the potential for isolated severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph. Read more