Storm Prediction Center

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S. on Wednesday and become substantially amplified. Ahead of the trough, enough instability is expected to develop in the central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon for an isolated severe threat. On Thursday, a mid-level shortwave ridge is forecast to move through the central U.S. An axis of instability appears likely to develop in the Great Plains in the wake of the ridge. Although an isolated severe threat will be possible along parts of this instability corridor Thursday afternoon, model forecasts suggest a cap will minimize convective coverage. The ridge is forecast to move into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes on Friday, as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the north-central states. Isolated severe storms could occur ahead of this trough in the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon. Additionally, a conditional severe threat could develop southward into the southern and central Plains, but this would materialize only if storms can initiate in a somewhat capped environment. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday and Sunday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to gradually advect northward across the southern and central Plains. Isolated to scattered storms will be possible each afternoon over parts of this airmass. However, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain limited and convective initiation will likely be mesoscale-driven. For this reason, predictability is low over the weekend concerning any potential for severe storms. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Tuesday from parts of southeast Kansas into far western Illinois. ...Southern and Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest... A mid-level shortwave trough will move southeastward across the north-central U.S. on Tuesday, as an associated cold front advances southeastward into the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, moisture will be somewhat limited with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s F. As surface, temperatures warm during the day, instability is expected to develop ahead of the front. Forecasts suggest the strongest instability will be in southeast Kansas and western Missouri, where MLCAPE could reach the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, if the more aggressive model solutions pan out. Increasing low-level convergence near the front Tuesday afternoon will likely result in widely-spaced convective initiation. Storms are expected to move east-southeastward toward the instability axis during the late afternoon and early evening. At this time, there are a wide range of model solutions concerning instability. In addition, some models have a warm layer at 700 mb near the front, which would limit severe potential. However, if an axis of moderate instability can develop ahead of the front, and some storms can become surface-based, then a potential will exist for isolated severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 05/10/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Tuesday from parts of southeast Kansas into far western Illinois. ...Southern and Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest... A mid-level shortwave trough will move southeastward across the north-central U.S. on Tuesday, as an associated cold front advances southeastward into the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, moisture will be somewhat limited with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s F. As surface, temperatures warm during the day, instability is expected to develop ahead of the front. Forecasts suggest the strongest instability will be in southeast Kansas and western Missouri, where MLCAPE could reach the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, if the more aggressive model solutions pan out. Increasing low-level convergence near the front Tuesday afternoon will likely result in widely-spaced convective initiation. Storms are expected to move east-southeastward toward the instability axis during the late afternoon and early evening. At this time, there are a wide range of model solutions concerning instability. In addition, some models have a warm layer at 700 mb near the front, which would limit severe potential. However, if an axis of moderate instability can develop ahead of the front, and some storms can become surface-based, then a potential will exist for isolated severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 05/10/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Tuesday from parts of southeast Kansas into far western Illinois. ...Southern and Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest... A mid-level shortwave trough will move southeastward across the north-central U.S. on Tuesday, as an associated cold front advances southeastward into the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, moisture will be somewhat limited with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s F. As surface, temperatures warm during the day, instability is expected to develop ahead of the front. Forecasts suggest the strongest instability will be in southeast Kansas and western Missouri, where MLCAPE could reach the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, if the more aggressive model solutions pan out. Increasing low-level convergence near the front Tuesday afternoon will likely result in widely-spaced convective initiation. Storms are expected to move east-southeastward toward the instability axis during the late afternoon and early evening. At this time, there are a wide range of model solutions concerning instability. In addition, some models have a warm layer at 700 mb near the front, which would limit severe potential. However, if an axis of moderate instability can develop ahead of the front, and some storms can become surface-based, then a potential will exist for isolated severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 05/10/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of an expansive upper ridge over the West, a robust midlevel trough and accompanying 60-70-kt jet streak will advance eastward across MT into ND during peak heating. At the same time, a related surface low will move eastward from SK into MB Canada, while a southward-extending lee trough deepens along the northern/central Plains -- before being overtaken by a surface front. This large-scale pattern will favor a broad area of elevated conditions across parts of the northern and central Plains during the afternoon, with critical conditions expected over eastern MT into west-central ND. ...Northern into the Central Plains... Ample diurnal heating and downslope flow trajectories will promote deep boundary-layer mixing along and west of the lee trough during the afternoon, where upper 70s to lower/middle 80s temperatures and 15-25 percent RH are expected. Over the northern Plains, a combination of a tight pressure gradient and strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will promote 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 20-25 percent RH. The greatest overlap of strong surface winds and low RH atop critically receptive fuels is expected from eastern MT into west-central ND -- where Critical highlights are in place. Farther south, a slightly weaker pressure gradient and moderate flow aloft will favor 15 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds, with 10-15 percent RH. Given receptive fuels here as well, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. A north-northwesterly wind shift is expected during the evening behind the front, with increasing RH and cooling temperatures. ..Weinman.. 05/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of an expansive upper ridge over the West, a robust midlevel trough and accompanying 60-70-kt jet streak will advance eastward across MT into ND during peak heating. At the same time, a related surface low will move eastward from SK into MB Canada, while a southward-extending lee trough deepens along the northern/central Plains -- before being overtaken by a surface front. This large-scale pattern will favor a broad area of elevated conditions across parts of the northern and central Plains during the afternoon, with critical conditions expected over eastern MT into west-central ND. ...Northern into the Central Plains... Ample diurnal heating and downslope flow trajectories will promote deep boundary-layer mixing along and west of the lee trough during the afternoon, where upper 70s to lower/middle 80s temperatures and 15-25 percent RH are expected. Over the northern Plains, a combination of a tight pressure gradient and strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will promote 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 20-25 percent RH. The greatest overlap of strong surface winds and low RH atop critically receptive fuels is expected from eastern MT into west-central ND -- where Critical highlights are in place. Farther south, a slightly weaker pressure gradient and moderate flow aloft will favor 15 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds, with 10-15 percent RH. Given receptive fuels here as well, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. A north-northwesterly wind shift is expected during the evening behind the front, with increasing RH and cooling temperatures. ..Weinman.. 05/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of an expansive upper ridge over the West, a robust midlevel trough and accompanying 60-70-kt jet streak will advance eastward across MT into ND during peak heating. At the same time, a related surface low will move eastward from SK into MB Canada, while a southward-extending lee trough deepens along the northern/central Plains -- before being overtaken by a surface front. This large-scale pattern will favor a broad area of elevated conditions across parts of the northern and central Plains during the afternoon, with critical conditions expected over eastern MT into west-central ND. ...Northern into the Central Plains... Ample diurnal heating and downslope flow trajectories will promote deep boundary-layer mixing along and west of the lee trough during the afternoon, where upper 70s to lower/middle 80s temperatures and 15-25 percent RH are expected. Over the northern Plains, a combination of a tight pressure gradient and strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will promote 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 20-25 percent RH. The greatest overlap of strong surface winds and low RH atop critically receptive fuels is expected from eastern MT into west-central ND -- where Critical highlights are in place. Farther south, a slightly weaker pressure gradient and moderate flow aloft will favor 15 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds, with 10-15 percent RH. Given receptive fuels here as well, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. A north-northwesterly wind shift is expected during the evening behind the front, with increasing RH and cooling temperatures. ..Weinman.. 05/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge over the West will promote warm and dry conditions across much of the Southwest and Great Basin on Sunday. Outside of localized terrain-favored areas, light surface winds will limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 05/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge over the West will promote warm and dry conditions across much of the Southwest and Great Basin on Sunday. Outside of localized terrain-favored areas, light surface winds will limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 05/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge over the West will promote warm and dry conditions across much of the Southwest and Great Basin on Sunday. Outside of localized terrain-favored areas, light surface winds will limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 05/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are possible Monday afternoon across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... A mid-level trough will move eastward into the Appalachians on Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward across the Southeast. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in from the mid 60s to lower 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is expected over most of this moist airmass. Low-level convergence will become maximized near the front, and along coastal convergence boundaries. Thunderstorms that form during the afternoon will have potential for isolated severe wind gusts, mainly due to steep low-level lapse rates. Hail will also be possible in areas that destabilize the most. ..Broyles.. 05/10/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are possible Monday afternoon across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... A mid-level trough will move eastward into the Appalachians on Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward across the Southeast. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in from the mid 60s to lower 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is expected over most of this moist airmass. Low-level convergence will become maximized near the front, and along coastal convergence boundaries. Thunderstorms that form during the afternoon will have potential for isolated severe wind gusts, mainly due to steep low-level lapse rates. Hail will also be possible in areas that destabilize the most. ..Broyles.. 05/10/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are possible Monday afternoon across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... A mid-level trough will move eastward into the Appalachians on Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward across the Southeast. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in from the mid 60s to lower 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is expected over most of this moist airmass. Low-level convergence will become maximized near the front, and along coastal convergence boundaries. Thunderstorms that form during the afternoon will have potential for isolated severe wind gusts, mainly due to steep low-level lapse rates. Hail will also be possible in areas that destabilize the most. ..Broyles.. 05/10/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail (some in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and severe wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening across parts of central and north Texas. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind and large hail are possible farther east into the lower Mississippi Valley, portions of the Florida Peninsula, and central New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level low initially over James Bay will progress northeast through the forecast period, with a belt of strong, cyclonic flow persisting across the Great Lakes and New England. On the periphery of the broader-scale troughing, late evening water vapor imagery shows a short-wave trough over WY with a more subtle disturbance noted near the Four Corners region. Those two features are expected to progress into the southern Plains by Sunday afternoon, contributing to modest, mid-level height falls across the region. At the surface, a cold front initially from the lower Great Lakes southwest through the OH Valley and Ozark Plateau into the southern High Plains at 12z Sunday will advance east/southeast during the day. A few strong storms capable of small hail and gusty winds may occur along and ahead of that boundary Sunday afternoon over northern New England and the central Appalachians into mid-Atlantic. Greater severe-storm potential is expected along the cold front and any preceding convective outflow boundaries from the southern Plains into lower MS Valley Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains into Lower MS Valley... Clusters of thunderstorms (some of which could be strong to severe) are likely to be ongoing Sunday morning from the ArkLaTex into OK, with outflow associated with that activity preceding the cold front across north Texas. By early to mid afternoon, the composite boundary is expected to extend from the TX South Plains across north Texas through the ArkLaTex into central or eastern AR. A dryline is expected to stretch south from the front through the eastern Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau region. A steep, mid-level lapse rate plume will overlie the warm sector characterized by increasing boundary-layer moisture content with eastward extent across TX, with afternoon MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg. Slightly less instability (MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg) is forecast from AR and LA into MS as that region will reside east of the EML plume. The combination of daytime heating and increasing forcing for ascent (see synopsis) are expected to support thunderstorm development by mid afternoon from the vicinity of the surface triple point over west-central TX, east along the composite boundary. Vertical shear will be maximized along the west-to-east-oriented front with decreasing bulk shear magnitudes with southward extent across the warm sector. As such, supercell storm modes and an associated large to very large hail (2+" in diameter) threat are most probable in the vicinity of the front within the first couple of hours after storm initiation. By late afternoon into Sunday evening, there is a consistent signal across convection-allowing model guidance for upscale growth into a forward-propagating QLCS that accelerates southeast through central TX before reaching the TX Coast and deep South TX early Monday morning. The degree of parcel buoyancy and presence of a dry, mid-level air mass will support the potential for organized cold pool development with corridors of damaging winds in excess of 75 mph appearing possible from late afternoon through evening. The damaging wind threat is expected to become more isolated with time Sunday night into early Monday as the boundary layer gradually stabilizes. Generally weak low-level shear (effective SRH < 150 m2/s2) and 0-3-km bulk-shear magnitudes <25-30 kt are expected to limit tornado/meso-vortex potential with the QLCS. Farther to the east across AR and LA into MS, convective evolution and associated severe-weather potential are a bit more uncertain. Some model guidance suggests that morning storms across portions of AR could intensify by afternoon while spreading east/southeast into parts of northwest MS and northern LA. Additional strong to severe storms will also be possible Sunday afternoon and evening along the front moving through the area. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary severe hazard, though isolated occurrences of severe hail will also be possible. ...Central NM into far West Texas... Height falls aloft coupled with enhanced orographic ascent with the cold-frontal surge are expected to contribute to isolated to widely scattered storm development Sunday afternoon and evening. Steep, low/mid-level lapse rates will contribute to MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg amidst 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear may favor a few strong to severe storms capable of hail and/or locally damaging wind gusts. ...FL Peninsula... Isolated to widely scattered, diurnally enhanced thunderstorms appear possible along the front stalled across the northern Peninsula, and south along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. The presence of a moist environment with MLCAPE up to 1500-2500 J/kg will support water-loaded downdrafts capable of locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon and early evening hours. ..Mead/Weinman.. 05/10/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail (some in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and severe wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening across parts of central and north Texas. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind and large hail are possible farther east into the lower Mississippi Valley, portions of the Florida Peninsula, and central New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level low initially over James Bay will progress northeast through the forecast period, with a belt of strong, cyclonic flow persisting across the Great Lakes and New England. On the periphery of the broader-scale troughing, late evening water vapor imagery shows a short-wave trough over WY with a more subtle disturbance noted near the Four Corners region. Those two features are expected to progress into the southern Plains by Sunday afternoon, contributing to modest, mid-level height falls across the region. At the surface, a cold front initially from the lower Great Lakes southwest through the OH Valley and Ozark Plateau into the southern High Plains at 12z Sunday will advance east/southeast during the day. A few strong storms capable of small hail and gusty winds may occur along and ahead of that boundary Sunday afternoon over northern New England and the central Appalachians into mid-Atlantic. Greater severe-storm potential is expected along the cold front and any preceding convective outflow boundaries from the southern Plains into lower MS Valley Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains into Lower MS Valley... Clusters of thunderstorms (some of which could be strong to severe) are likely to be ongoing Sunday morning from the ArkLaTex into OK, with outflow associated with that activity preceding the cold front across north Texas. By early to mid afternoon, the composite boundary is expected to extend from the TX South Plains across north Texas through the ArkLaTex into central or eastern AR. A dryline is expected to stretch south from the front through the eastern Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau region. A steep, mid-level lapse rate plume will overlie the warm sector characterized by increasing boundary-layer moisture content with eastward extent across TX, with afternoon MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg. Slightly less instability (MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg) is forecast from AR and LA into MS as that region will reside east of the EML plume. The combination of daytime heating and increasing forcing for ascent (see synopsis) are expected to support thunderstorm development by mid afternoon from the vicinity of the surface triple point over west-central TX, east along the composite boundary. Vertical shear will be maximized along the west-to-east-oriented front with decreasing bulk shear magnitudes with southward extent across the warm sector. As such, supercell storm modes and an associated large to very large hail (2+" in diameter) threat are most probable in the vicinity of the front within the first couple of hours after storm initiation. By late afternoon into Sunday evening, there is a consistent signal across convection-allowing model guidance for upscale growth into a forward-propagating QLCS that accelerates southeast through central TX before reaching the TX Coast and deep South TX early Monday morning. The degree of parcel buoyancy and presence of a dry, mid-level air mass will support the potential for organized cold pool development with corridors of damaging winds in excess of 75 mph appearing possible from late afternoon through evening. The damaging wind threat is expected to become more isolated with time Sunday night into early Monday as the boundary layer gradually stabilizes. Generally weak low-level shear (effective SRH < 150 m2/s2) and 0-3-km bulk-shear magnitudes <25-30 kt are expected to limit tornado/meso-vortex potential with the QLCS. Farther to the east across AR and LA into MS, convective evolution and associated severe-weather potential are a bit more uncertain. Some model guidance suggests that morning storms across portions of AR could intensify by afternoon while spreading east/southeast into parts of northwest MS and northern LA. Additional strong to severe storms will also be possible Sunday afternoon and evening along the front moving through the area. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary severe hazard, though isolated occurrences of severe hail will also be possible. ...Central NM into far West Texas... Height falls aloft coupled with enhanced orographic ascent with the cold-frontal surge are expected to contribute to isolated to widely scattered storm development Sunday afternoon and evening. Steep, low/mid-level lapse rates will contribute to MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg amidst 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear may favor a few strong to severe storms capable of hail and/or locally damaging wind gusts. ...FL Peninsula... Isolated to widely scattered, diurnally enhanced thunderstorms appear possible along the front stalled across the northern Peninsula, and south along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. The presence of a moist environment with MLCAPE up to 1500-2500 J/kg will support water-loaded downdrafts capable of locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon and early evening hours. ..Mead/Weinman.. 05/10/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail (some in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and severe wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening across parts of central and north Texas. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind and large hail are possible farther east into the lower Mississippi Valley, portions of the Florida Peninsula, and central New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level low initially over James Bay will progress northeast through the forecast period, with a belt of strong, cyclonic flow persisting across the Great Lakes and New England. On the periphery of the broader-scale troughing, late evening water vapor imagery shows a short-wave trough over WY with a more subtle disturbance noted near the Four Corners region. Those two features are expected to progress into the southern Plains by Sunday afternoon, contributing to modest, mid-level height falls across the region. At the surface, a cold front initially from the lower Great Lakes southwest through the OH Valley and Ozark Plateau into the southern High Plains at 12z Sunday will advance east/southeast during the day. A few strong storms capable of small hail and gusty winds may occur along and ahead of that boundary Sunday afternoon over northern New England and the central Appalachians into mid-Atlantic. Greater severe-storm potential is expected along the cold front and any preceding convective outflow boundaries from the southern Plains into lower MS Valley Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains into Lower MS Valley... Clusters of thunderstorms (some of which could be strong to severe) are likely to be ongoing Sunday morning from the ArkLaTex into OK, with outflow associated with that activity preceding the cold front across north Texas. By early to mid afternoon, the composite boundary is expected to extend from the TX South Plains across north Texas through the ArkLaTex into central or eastern AR. A dryline is expected to stretch south from the front through the eastern Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau region. A steep, mid-level lapse rate plume will overlie the warm sector characterized by increasing boundary-layer moisture content with eastward extent across TX, with afternoon MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg. Slightly less instability (MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg) is forecast from AR and LA into MS as that region will reside east of the EML plume. The combination of daytime heating and increasing forcing for ascent (see synopsis) are expected to support thunderstorm development by mid afternoon from the vicinity of the surface triple point over west-central TX, east along the composite boundary. Vertical shear will be maximized along the west-to-east-oriented front with decreasing bulk shear magnitudes with southward extent across the warm sector. As such, supercell storm modes and an associated large to very large hail (2+" in diameter) threat are most probable in the vicinity of the front within the first couple of hours after storm initiation. By late afternoon into Sunday evening, there is a consistent signal across convection-allowing model guidance for upscale growth into a forward-propagating QLCS that accelerates southeast through central TX before reaching the TX Coast and deep South TX early Monday morning. The degree of parcel buoyancy and presence of a dry, mid-level air mass will support the potential for organized cold pool development with corridors of damaging winds in excess of 75 mph appearing possible from late afternoon through evening. The damaging wind threat is expected to become more isolated with time Sunday night into early Monday as the boundary layer gradually stabilizes. Generally weak low-level shear (effective SRH < 150 m2/s2) and 0-3-km bulk-shear magnitudes <25-30 kt are expected to limit tornado/meso-vortex potential with the QLCS. Farther to the east across AR and LA into MS, convective evolution and associated severe-weather potential are a bit more uncertain. Some model guidance suggests that morning storms across portions of AR could intensify by afternoon while spreading east/southeast into parts of northwest MS and northern LA. Additional strong to severe storms will also be possible Sunday afternoon and evening along the front moving through the area. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary severe hazard, though isolated occurrences of severe hail will also be possible. ...Central NM into far West Texas... Height falls aloft coupled with enhanced orographic ascent with the cold-frontal surge are expected to contribute to isolated to widely scattered storm development Sunday afternoon and evening. Steep, low/mid-level lapse rates will contribute to MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg amidst 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear may favor a few strong to severe storms capable of hail and/or locally damaging wind gusts. ...FL Peninsula... Isolated to widely scattered, diurnally enhanced thunderstorms appear possible along the front stalled across the northern Peninsula, and south along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. The presence of a moist environment with MLCAPE up to 1500-2500 J/kg will support water-loaded downdrafts capable of locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon and early evening hours. ..Mead/Weinman.. 05/10/2026 Read more

MD 0691 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 194... FOR WESTERN INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0691 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0921 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026 Areas affected...western into southern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 194... Valid 100221Z - 100415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 194 continues. SUMMARY...Severe gusts to around 60 mph and isolated hail remains possible from northwest into south-central Oklahoma. Depending on convective trends, a new watch may be considered. DISCUSSION...The initial supercells which produced large hail have decreased in intensity as they continue eastward across southwest and toward south-central OK, though still capable of hail and severe gusts. Loss of heating / increasing inhibition are negatively impacting these storms. However, the air mass is more moist with southward extend toward the Red River, with PWAT of 1.00-1.25". Given south/southeast low-level flow, this may at least partially counteract the negative influence of a cooling boundary layer. Even if new development is unlikely, this environment may sustain the ongoing cells, with potential for downstream severe gusts or hail over 1.00". To the north, a line of storms continues to push southeastward out of northwest OK, where a wind gust of 66 mph was measured at KAVK. This system will likely persist to some degree as it translates south/southeast along the theta-e gradient which currently extends through central OK. Given the instability axis remains from western through southern OK, development along southwest flanks are preferred. ..Jewell.. 05/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 35509993 35989970 36129921 36379885 36729865 36689820 36389802 36009779 35379720 35009660 34709599 34339578 34139590 33949609 33839651 33909777 34579936 34939975 35509993 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0194 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 194 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW CDS TO 25 NE CDS TO 70 NW CSM TO 15 SE P28. ..JEWELL..05/10/26 ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 194 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC003-009-011-015-017-031-033-039-043-045-051-055-057-065-073- 075-093-129-137-141-149-151-153-100240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GRADY GREER HARMON JACKSON KINGFISHER KIOWA MAJOR ROGER MILLS STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA WOODS WOODWARD TXC009-023-075-077-101-155-197-275-485-487-100240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CHILDRESS CLAY COTTLE FOARD HARDEMAN KNOX WICHITA WILBARGER Read more

WW 0194 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 194 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW CDS TO 25 NE CDS TO 70 NW CSM TO 15 SE P28. ..JEWELL..05/10/26 ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 194 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC003-009-011-015-017-031-033-039-043-045-051-055-057-065-073- 075-093-129-137-141-149-151-153-100240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GRADY GREER HARMON JACKSON KINGFISHER KIOWA MAJOR ROGER MILLS STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA WOODS WOODWARD TXC009-023-075-077-101-155-197-275-485-487-100240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CHILDRESS CLAY COTTLE FOARD HARDEMAN KNOX WICHITA WILBARGER Read more

MD 0690 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 194... FOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA...FAR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0690 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0619 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026 Areas affected...western Oklahoma...far eastern Texas Panhandle and northwest Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 194... Valid 092319Z - 100215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 194 continues. SUMMARY...Large hail threat persists into western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. A few damaging gusts may develop anywhere within the watch. DISCUSSION...Several supercells currently extend from the eastern TX Panhandle into west-central OK, with reports from 1.50" to 2.01" diameter. These cells are interacting with the moisture/instability axis while the boundary layer remains near peak heating. Midlevel west/northwest winds of 40 kt atop backed/southeasterly surface winds are creating favorable shear profiles to support the hail cells, and the increasing low-level jet may enhance inflow and rightward motion later this evening before inhibition increases. Farther north, a line of high-based convection persists from central KS into the OK Panhandle, where dewpoints are only in the 30s and 40s F. However, an increasing low-level jet this evening will bring 50s F dewpoints northward into the area, possibly supporting a degree of strengthening along any existing outflow surge. ..Jewell.. 05/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 33939988 34469993 35380016 35900040 36560050 36740054 36949992 37269930 36909865 36359833 35219834 34379802 33959797 33659817 33569838 33539891 33729966 33939988 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more