WW 194 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 092055Z - 100300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 194
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
355 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western Oklahoma and the Eastern Oklahoma Panhandle
The Eastern Texas Panhandle and Western North Texas
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Widely scattered supercells are expected to develop this
afternoon and early evening. Large to very large hail (up to 1.5 to
2.5 inches in diameter) should be the main threat with these
supercells as they move east-southeastward into western Oklahoma and
western north Texas through the evening. Occasional severe/damaging
winds may also occur.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles west northwest
of Alva OK to 55 miles west southwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29025.
...Gleason
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
expected to continue tonight across western, central, and southern
Oklahoma and north Texas. Isolated occurrences of wind and/or hail
are possible through the remainder of the evening over the central
High Plains, Texas Coast, and lower Great Lakes.
...Oklahoma and North Texas...
As of 00:30z, a cluster of supercells with a history of large hail
production is present along and just to the south of I-40 in western
OK with additional storms intensifying ahead of a cold front
northwest of Woodward. The storms are occurring within a narrow axis
of modest instability with MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which coincides
with effective bulk shear magnitudes of 45-50 kt.
A comparably more moist boundary layer resides to the south of the
current convection across southern OK into north TX with dewpoints
in the upper 50s to around 60, supporting MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg.
Recent, convection-allowing model guidance is suggestive that a
consolidation of the separate convective regimes will occur later
this evening with an increasing damaging wind threat spreading
southeast through central and southern OK and north TX. Another
possible scenario is for the I-40 supercell complex to gradually
evolve into a forward-propagating system with an attendant damaging
wind and hail threat confined to southern OK and potentially north
TX. Either of these scenarios appear plausible as a nocturnally
strengthening low-level jet enhances inflow of the more
moist/unstable air mass into the growing convective system. In
either scenario, it appears the damaging wind threat will develop to
the east of the current 15% unconditional probability. As such, that
line (delineating the level 2/Slight Risk) has been extended into
portions of southeast OK, and farther east in north TX.
...Western New York into Northeast Ohio...
As of 00z, a band of thunderstorms is ongoing from portions of
western NY through northwest PA into eastern OH, ahead of a vigorous
short-wave trough moving through the Great Lakes region. Steep
low/mid-level lapse rates have contributed to sufficient instability
to sustain the ongoing storms with a number of 40-50+ mph wind gusts
reported earlier in the Cleveland area. Locally strong to marginally
severe wind gusts will remain possible for the next hour or two
before low-level lapse rates weaken with the cooling of the boundary
layer.
...Central High Plains...
A small cluster of thunderstorms is ongoing this evening in
northeast CO with a more isolated storm in northwest KS, near
Goodland. Forcing for ascent associated with a vigorous short-wave
trough moving through WY coupled with a steep, low/mid-level lapse
rate environment are supporting that convective development amidst a
kinematic environment featuring 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear.
The potential for isolated occurrences of large hail and/or locally
damaging wind gusts are expected to continue through the remainder
of the evening before boundary-layer cooling and resultant
convective inhibition accrual result in a decreasing severe-weather
threat.
...Texas Coast to Lower Sabine River Valley...
Isolated strong to severe storms this evening within a moist and
moderately unstable air mass with estimated MLCAPE up to 2000-2500
J/kg. Vertical shear isn't particularly strong, nor is large-scale
forcing for ascent. As such, isolated large hail and/or strong wind
gusts will remain possible for the next couple of hours before
storms weaken with the loss of daytime heating.
..Mead.. 05/10/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
expected to continue tonight across western, central, and southern
Oklahoma and north Texas. Isolated occurrences of wind and/or hail
are possible through the remainder of the evening over the central
High Plains, Texas Coast, and lower Great Lakes.
...Oklahoma and North Texas...
As of 00:30z, a cluster of supercells with a history of large hail
production is present along and just to the south of I-40 in western
OK with additional storms intensifying ahead of a cold front
northwest of Woodward. The storms are occurring within a narrow axis
of modest instability with MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which coincides
with effective bulk shear magnitudes of 45-50 kt.
A comparably more moist boundary layer resides to the south of the
current convection across southern OK into north TX with dewpoints
in the upper 50s to around 60, supporting MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg.
Recent, convection-allowing model guidance is suggestive that a
consolidation of the separate convective regimes will occur later
this evening with an increasing damaging wind threat spreading
southeast through central and southern OK and north TX. Another
possible scenario is for the I-40 supercell complex to gradually
evolve into a forward-propagating system with an attendant damaging
wind and hail threat confined to southern OK and potentially north
TX. Either of these scenarios appear plausible as a nocturnally
strengthening low-level jet enhances inflow of the more
moist/unstable air mass into the growing convective system. In
either scenario, it appears the damaging wind threat will develop to
the east of the current 15% unconditional probability. As such, that
line (delineating the level 2/Slight Risk) has been extended into
portions of southeast OK, and farther east in north TX.
...Western New York into Northeast Ohio...
As of 00z, a band of thunderstorms is ongoing from portions of
western NY through northwest PA into eastern OH, ahead of a vigorous
short-wave trough moving through the Great Lakes region. Steep
low/mid-level lapse rates have contributed to sufficient instability
to sustain the ongoing storms with a number of 40-50+ mph wind gusts
reported earlier in the Cleveland area. Locally strong to marginally
severe wind gusts will remain possible for the next hour or two
before low-level lapse rates weaken with the cooling of the boundary
layer.
...Central High Plains...
A small cluster of thunderstorms is ongoing this evening in
northeast CO with a more isolated storm in northwest KS, near
Goodland. Forcing for ascent associated with a vigorous short-wave
trough moving through WY coupled with a steep, low/mid-level lapse
rate environment are supporting that convective development amidst a
kinematic environment featuring 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear.
The potential for isolated occurrences of large hail and/or locally
damaging wind gusts are expected to continue through the remainder
of the evening before boundary-layer cooling and resultant
convective inhibition accrual result in a decreasing severe-weather
threat.
...Texas Coast to Lower Sabine River Valley...
Isolated strong to severe storms this evening within a moist and
moderately unstable air mass with estimated MLCAPE up to 2000-2500
J/kg. Vertical shear isn't particularly strong, nor is large-scale
forcing for ascent. As such, isolated large hail and/or strong wind
gusts will remain possible for the next couple of hours before
storms weaken with the loss of daytime heating.
..Mead.. 05/10/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
expected to continue tonight across western, central, and southern
Oklahoma and north Texas. Isolated occurrences of wind and/or hail
are possible through the remainder of the evening over the central
High Plains, Texas Coast, and lower Great Lakes.
...Oklahoma and North Texas...
As of 00:30z, a cluster of supercells with a history of large hail
production is present along and just to the south of I-40 in western
OK with additional storms intensifying ahead of a cold front
northwest of Woodward. The storms are occurring within a narrow axis
of modest instability with MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which coincides
with effective bulk shear magnitudes of 45-50 kt.
A comparably more moist boundary layer resides to the south of the
current convection across southern OK into north TX with dewpoints
in the upper 50s to around 60, supporting MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg.
Recent, convection-allowing model guidance is suggestive that a
consolidation of the separate convective regimes will occur later
this evening with an increasing damaging wind threat spreading
southeast through central and southern OK and north TX. Another
possible scenario is for the I-40 supercell complex to gradually
evolve into a forward-propagating system with an attendant damaging
wind and hail threat confined to southern OK and potentially north
TX. Either of these scenarios appear plausible as a nocturnally
strengthening low-level jet enhances inflow of the more
moist/unstable air mass into the growing convective system. In
either scenario, it appears the damaging wind threat will develop to
the east of the current 15% unconditional probability. As such, that
line (delineating the level 2/Slight Risk) has been extended into
portions of southeast OK, and farther east in north TX.
...Western New York into Northeast Ohio...
As of 00z, a band of thunderstorms is ongoing from portions of
western NY through northwest PA into eastern OH, ahead of a vigorous
short-wave trough moving through the Great Lakes region. Steep
low/mid-level lapse rates have contributed to sufficient instability
to sustain the ongoing storms with a number of 40-50+ mph wind gusts
reported earlier in the Cleveland area. Locally strong to marginally
severe wind gusts will remain possible for the next hour or two
before low-level lapse rates weaken with the cooling of the boundary
layer.
...Central High Plains...
A small cluster of thunderstorms is ongoing this evening in
northeast CO with a more isolated storm in northwest KS, near
Goodland. Forcing for ascent associated with a vigorous short-wave
trough moving through WY coupled with a steep, low/mid-level lapse
rate environment are supporting that convective development amidst a
kinematic environment featuring 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear.
The potential for isolated occurrences of large hail and/or locally
damaging wind gusts are expected to continue through the remainder
of the evening before boundary-layer cooling and resultant
convective inhibition accrual result in a decreasing severe-weather
threat.
...Texas Coast to Lower Sabine River Valley...
Isolated strong to severe storms this evening within a moist and
moderately unstable air mass with estimated MLCAPE up to 2000-2500
J/kg. Vertical shear isn't particularly strong, nor is large-scale
forcing for ascent. As such, isolated large hail and/or strong wind
gusts will remain possible for the next couple of hours before
storms weaken with the loss of daytime heating.
..Mead.. 05/10/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
expected to continue tonight across western, central, and southern
Oklahoma and north Texas. Isolated occurrences of wind and/or hail
are possible through the remainder of the evening over the central
High Plains, Texas Coast, and lower Great Lakes.
...Oklahoma and North Texas...
As of 00:30z, a cluster of supercells with a history of large hail
production is present along and just to the south of I-40 in western
OK with additional storms intensifying ahead of a cold front
northwest of Woodward. The storms are occurring within a narrow axis
of modest instability with MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which coincides
with effective bulk shear magnitudes of 45-50 kt.
A comparably more moist boundary layer resides to the south of the
current convection across southern OK into north TX with dewpoints
in the upper 50s to around 60, supporting MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg.
Recent, convection-allowing model guidance is suggestive that a
consolidation of the separate convective regimes will occur later
this evening with an increasing damaging wind threat spreading
southeast through central and southern OK and north TX. Another
possible scenario is for the I-40 supercell complex to gradually
evolve into a forward-propagating system with an attendant damaging
wind and hail threat confined to southern OK and potentially north
TX. Either of these scenarios appear plausible as a nocturnally
strengthening low-level jet enhances inflow of the more
moist/unstable air mass into the growing convective system. In
either scenario, it appears the damaging wind threat will develop to
the east of the current 15% unconditional probability. As such, that
line (delineating the level 2/Slight Risk) has been extended into
portions of southeast OK, and farther east in north TX.
...Western New York into Northeast Ohio...
As of 00z, a band of thunderstorms is ongoing from portions of
western NY through northwest PA into eastern OH, ahead of a vigorous
short-wave trough moving through the Great Lakes region. Steep
low/mid-level lapse rates have contributed to sufficient instability
to sustain the ongoing storms with a number of 40-50+ mph wind gusts
reported earlier in the Cleveland area. Locally strong to marginally
severe wind gusts will remain possible for the next hour or two
before low-level lapse rates weaken with the cooling of the boundary
layer.
...Central High Plains...
A small cluster of thunderstorms is ongoing this evening in
northeast CO with a more isolated storm in northwest KS, near
Goodland. Forcing for ascent associated with a vigorous short-wave
trough moving through WY coupled with a steep, low/mid-level lapse
rate environment are supporting that convective development amidst a
kinematic environment featuring 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear.
The potential for isolated occurrences of large hail and/or locally
damaging wind gusts are expected to continue through the remainder
of the evening before boundary-layer cooling and resultant
convective inhibition accrual result in a decreasing severe-weather
threat.
...Texas Coast to Lower Sabine River Valley...
Isolated strong to severe storms this evening within a moist and
moderately unstable air mass with estimated MLCAPE up to 2000-2500
J/kg. Vertical shear isn't particularly strong, nor is large-scale
forcing for ascent. As such, isolated large hail and/or strong wind
gusts will remain possible for the next couple of hours before
storms weaken with the loss of daytime heating.
..Mead.. 05/10/2026
Read more
WW 0195 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 195
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE BFD TO
30 NNE ROC.
..WEINMAN..05/10/26
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...CTP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 195
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC051-055-100140-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LIVINGSTON MONROE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0195 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 195
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE BFD TO
30 NNE ROC.
..WEINMAN..05/10/26
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...CTP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 195
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC051-055-100140-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LIVINGSTON MONROE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 195 SEVERE TSTM NY OH PA LE LO 092140Z - 100300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 195
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
540 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western New York
Northeast Ohio
Northwest Pennsylvania
Lake Erie
Lake Ontario
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 540 PM until
1100 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A line of storms will cross the nearby Great Lakes and
move into the region and potentially produce damaging winds and some
hail through evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles east of
Buffalo NY to 20 miles west southwest of Cleveland OH. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 194...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
30025.
...Guyer
Read more
WW 0195 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 195
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW MFD
TO 25 SSE BUF TO 55 NNW ROC.
..WEINMAN..05/09/26
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...CTP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 195
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC009-013-037-051-055-073-121-100040-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CATTARAUGUS CHAUTAUQUA GENESEE
LIVINGSTON MONROE ORLEANS
WYOMING
OHC103-133-153-155-100040-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MEDINA PORTAGE SUMMIT
TRUMBULL
PAC039-123-100040-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD WARREN
Read more
MD 0689 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 195... FOR NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND FAR SOUTHWEST NY
Mesoscale Discussion 0689
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0539 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Areas affected...Northeast Ohio...northwest Pennsylvania...and far
southwest NY
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 195...
Valid 092239Z - 092345Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 195
continues.
SUMMARY...A locally favorable corridor for damaging wind gusts is
evident from northeast Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania for the next
2 hours or so.
DISCUSSION...A few deeper/stronger cores are evolving along the band
of storms moving from Lake Erie into northeast OH and northwest PA.
Within WW175, a locally favorable corridor for damaging winds gusts
is evident here, given 35-40 kt of line-oblique cloud-bearing shear
(per CLE VWP) and steepened pre-convective lapse rates. Damaging
gusts of 55-65 mph appear most likely in this corridor over the next
2 hours or so.
..Weinman.. 05/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 41538190 41848131 42288011 42277962 41887940 41567970
41268047 41048176 41258205 41538190
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
WW 0195 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 195
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0689
..WEINMAN..05/09/26
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...CTP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 195
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC009-013-029-037-051-055-063-073-121-092340-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CATTARAUGUS CHAUTAUQUA ERIE
GENESEE LIVINGSTON MONROE
NIAGARA ORLEANS WYOMING
OHC007-035-055-085-093-103-133-153-155-092340-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHTABULA CUYAHOGA GEAUGA
LAKE LORAIN MEDINA
PORTAGE SUMMIT TRUMBULL
PAC039-049-123-092340-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more
WW 195 SEVERE TSTM NY OH PA LE LO 092140Z - 100300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 195
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
540 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western New York
Northeast Ohio
Northwest Pennsylvania
Lake Erie
Lake Ontario
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 540 PM until
1100 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A line of storms will cross the nearby Great Lakes and
move into the region and potentially produce damaging winds and some
hail through evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles east of
Buffalo NY to 20 miles west southwest of Cleveland OH. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 194...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
30025.
...Guyer
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0411 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 171200Z
...Synopsis...
An embedded mid-level short wave rounding the apex of an established
ridge across the western U.S., moves into MT Day 3/Monday while
broader upper-level troughing deepens over the Northeast. Dry,
post-frontal flow under stronger northwest winds aloft should bring
a continued fire weather threat to portions of the Northern Plains
and Upper Midwest on Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday. The upper ridge over
the Intermountain West begins to shift east midweek while an upper
trough moves into the West Coast. This should usher in increasing
mid/upper-level moisture and high-based thunderstorm potential for
the Southwest/Colorado River Basin as well as stronger
south/southwest winds into the Great Basin. Dry conditions will
likely return to the much of the late next week across much of the
Southwest.
...Day 3/Monday - Northern High Plains...
Dry, post-frontal flow from the northwest atop receptive fuels will
increase fire weather concerns across much eastern MT and western
Dakotas on Day 3/Monday. Northwest winds of 15-20 mph aligning with
modest RH reductions close to 20% are likely, with a minor eastward
expansion of the existing 40% critical probabilities into western ND
and far northwestern SD base on latest forecast guidance.
...Day 4/Tuesday - Portions of Northern Plains and Upper Midwest...
A cold front extending southwestward from a parent low in the Great
Lakes should move into the Upper Midwest by Day 4/Tuesday. Northwest
winds of 15-20 mph behind the front will impact portions of the
Dakotas, southwest MN and northwestern IA. Precipitation associated
with the cold front and related upper short wave should be displaced
to the east, allowing very dry fuels to remain in place. 40%
critical probabilities have been introduced into the eastern
portions of the Dakotas, southwest MN and northwest IA.
...Day 5/Wednesday - Great Basin...
A pronounced upper trough and associated increasing southwesterly
flow enters the Western U.S. on Day 4/Wednesday. Stronger southwest
winds of 20-30 mph and low RH are likely to align across much of the
eastern Great Basin and Desert Southwest. Temperatures well above
normal and dry conditions under a dominating upper ridge leading up
to this wind event should contribute to drying and curing of fuels,
particularly in east-central NV and southwest UT where 40% critical
probabilities have been added. In addition, increasing
mid/upper-level moisture ahead of the trough and daytime heating
could generate high-based showers and thunderstorms across higher
terrain of the Southwest and CO River Basin. However, ample cloud
cover could reduce overall instability limiting thunderstorm
development, although concerns remain for at least a few lightning
ignitions as dry and breezy conditions return for the latter part of
next week. Uncertainty in expected cloud cover precludes
introductions of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time.
..Williams.. 05/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0411 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 171200Z
...Synopsis...
An embedded mid-level short wave rounding the apex of an established
ridge across the western U.S., moves into MT Day 3/Monday while
broader upper-level troughing deepens over the Northeast. Dry,
post-frontal flow under stronger northwest winds aloft should bring
a continued fire weather threat to portions of the Northern Plains
and Upper Midwest on Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday. The upper ridge over
the Intermountain West begins to shift east midweek while an upper
trough moves into the West Coast. This should usher in increasing
mid/upper-level moisture and high-based thunderstorm potential for
the Southwest/Colorado River Basin as well as stronger
south/southwest winds into the Great Basin. Dry conditions will
likely return to the much of the late next week across much of the
Southwest.
...Day 3/Monday - Northern High Plains...
Dry, post-frontal flow from the northwest atop receptive fuels will
increase fire weather concerns across much eastern MT and western
Dakotas on Day 3/Monday. Northwest winds of 15-20 mph aligning with
modest RH reductions close to 20% are likely, with a minor eastward
expansion of the existing 40% critical probabilities into western ND
and far northwestern SD base on latest forecast guidance.
...Day 4/Tuesday - Portions of Northern Plains and Upper Midwest...
A cold front extending southwestward from a parent low in the Great
Lakes should move into the Upper Midwest by Day 4/Tuesday. Northwest
winds of 15-20 mph behind the front will impact portions of the
Dakotas, southwest MN and northwestern IA. Precipitation associated
with the cold front and related upper short wave should be displaced
to the east, allowing very dry fuels to remain in place. 40%
critical probabilities have been introduced into the eastern
portions of the Dakotas, southwest MN and northwest IA.
...Day 5/Wednesday - Great Basin...
A pronounced upper trough and associated increasing southwesterly
flow enters the Western U.S. on Day 4/Wednesday. Stronger southwest
winds of 20-30 mph and low RH are likely to align across much of the
eastern Great Basin and Desert Southwest. Temperatures well above
normal and dry conditions under a dominating upper ridge leading up
to this wind event should contribute to drying and curing of fuels,
particularly in east-central NV and southwest UT where 40% critical
probabilities have been added. In addition, increasing
mid/upper-level moisture ahead of the trough and daytime heating
could generate high-based showers and thunderstorms across higher
terrain of the Southwest and CO River Basin. However, ample cloud
cover could reduce overall instability limiting thunderstorm
development, although concerns remain for at least a few lightning
ignitions as dry and breezy conditions return for the latter part of
next week. Uncertainty in expected cloud cover precludes
introductions of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time.
..Williams.. 05/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0411 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 171200Z
...Synopsis...
An embedded mid-level short wave rounding the apex of an established
ridge across the western U.S., moves into MT Day 3/Monday while
broader upper-level troughing deepens over the Northeast. Dry,
post-frontal flow under stronger northwest winds aloft should bring
a continued fire weather threat to portions of the Northern Plains
and Upper Midwest on Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday. The upper ridge over
the Intermountain West begins to shift east midweek while an upper
trough moves into the West Coast. This should usher in increasing
mid/upper-level moisture and high-based thunderstorm potential for
the Southwest/Colorado River Basin as well as stronger
south/southwest winds into the Great Basin. Dry conditions will
likely return to the much of the late next week across much of the
Southwest.
...Day 3/Monday - Northern High Plains...
Dry, post-frontal flow from the northwest atop receptive fuels will
increase fire weather concerns across much eastern MT and western
Dakotas on Day 3/Monday. Northwest winds of 15-20 mph aligning with
modest RH reductions close to 20% are likely, with a minor eastward
expansion of the existing 40% critical probabilities into western ND
and far northwestern SD base on latest forecast guidance.
...Day 4/Tuesday - Portions of Northern Plains and Upper Midwest...
A cold front extending southwestward from a parent low in the Great
Lakes should move into the Upper Midwest by Day 4/Tuesday. Northwest
winds of 15-20 mph behind the front will impact portions of the
Dakotas, southwest MN and northwestern IA. Precipitation associated
with the cold front and related upper short wave should be displaced
to the east, allowing very dry fuels to remain in place. 40%
critical probabilities have been introduced into the eastern
portions of the Dakotas, southwest MN and northwest IA.
...Day 5/Wednesday - Great Basin...
A pronounced upper trough and associated increasing southwesterly
flow enters the Western U.S. on Day 4/Wednesday. Stronger southwest
winds of 20-30 mph and low RH are likely to align across much of the
eastern Great Basin and Desert Southwest. Temperatures well above
normal and dry conditions under a dominating upper ridge leading up
to this wind event should contribute to drying and curing of fuels,
particularly in east-central NV and southwest UT where 40% critical
probabilities have been added. In addition, increasing
mid/upper-level moisture ahead of the trough and daytime heating
could generate high-based showers and thunderstorms across higher
terrain of the Southwest and CO River Basin. However, ample cloud
cover could reduce overall instability limiting thunderstorm
development, although concerns remain for at least a few lightning
ignitions as dry and breezy conditions return for the latter part of
next week. Uncertainty in expected cloud cover precludes
introductions of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time.
..Williams.. 05/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0411 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 171200Z
...Synopsis...
An embedded mid-level short wave rounding the apex of an established
ridge across the western U.S., moves into MT Day 3/Monday while
broader upper-level troughing deepens over the Northeast. Dry,
post-frontal flow under stronger northwest winds aloft should bring
a continued fire weather threat to portions of the Northern Plains
and Upper Midwest on Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday. The upper ridge over
the Intermountain West begins to shift east midweek while an upper
trough moves into the West Coast. This should usher in increasing
mid/upper-level moisture and high-based thunderstorm potential for
the Southwest/Colorado River Basin as well as stronger
south/southwest winds into the Great Basin. Dry conditions will
likely return to the much of the late next week across much of the
Southwest.
...Day 3/Monday - Northern High Plains...
Dry, post-frontal flow from the northwest atop receptive fuels will
increase fire weather concerns across much eastern MT and western
Dakotas on Day 3/Monday. Northwest winds of 15-20 mph aligning with
modest RH reductions close to 20% are likely, with a minor eastward
expansion of the existing 40% critical probabilities into western ND
and far northwestern SD base on latest forecast guidance.
...Day 4/Tuesday - Portions of Northern Plains and Upper Midwest...
A cold front extending southwestward from a parent low in the Great
Lakes should move into the Upper Midwest by Day 4/Tuesday. Northwest
winds of 15-20 mph behind the front will impact portions of the
Dakotas, southwest MN and northwestern IA. Precipitation associated
with the cold front and related upper short wave should be displaced
to the east, allowing very dry fuels to remain in place. 40%
critical probabilities have been introduced into the eastern
portions of the Dakotas, southwest MN and northwest IA.
...Day 5/Wednesday - Great Basin...
A pronounced upper trough and associated increasing southwesterly
flow enters the Western U.S. on Day 4/Wednesday. Stronger southwest
winds of 20-30 mph and low RH are likely to align across much of the
eastern Great Basin and Desert Southwest. Temperatures well above
normal and dry conditions under a dominating upper ridge leading up
to this wind event should contribute to drying and curing of fuels,
particularly in east-central NV and southwest UT where 40% critical
probabilities have been added. In addition, increasing
mid/upper-level moisture ahead of the trough and daytime heating
could generate high-based showers and thunderstorms across higher
terrain of the Southwest and CO River Basin. However, ample cloud
cover could reduce overall instability limiting thunderstorm
development, although concerns remain for at least a few lightning
ignitions as dry and breezy conditions return for the latter part of
next week. Uncertainty in expected cloud cover precludes
introductions of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time.
..Williams.. 05/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
WW 194 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 092055Z - 100300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 194
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
355 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western Oklahoma and the Eastern Oklahoma Panhandle
The Eastern Texas Panhandle and Western North Texas
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Widely scattered supercells are expected to develop this
afternoon and early evening. Large to very large hail (up to 1.5 to
2.5 inches in diameter) should be the main threat with these
supercells as they move east-southeastward into western Oklahoma and
western north Texas through the evening. Occasional severe/damaging
winds may also occur.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles west northwest
of Alva OK to 55 miles west southwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29025.
...Gleason
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