Storm Prediction Center

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today across the northern High Plains including northeast Wyoming and eastern Montana into the western Dakotas, with storms capable of very large hail, very strong outflow winds (80+ mph), and tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. The ENH risk was expanded slightly southwestward in northeastern WY, where several discrete supercell have evolved off the Bighorn Mountains -- posing a risk of large to very large hail. In western ND, the CIG1 tornado area was extended slightly northward. Continued diurnal heating amid upper 60s dewpoints will yield moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy and minimal inhibition. Backed surface winds beneath strengthening flow aloft will contribute to favorably curved hodographs. Any storms that can form or move into this environment will conditionally support a strong tornado. Farther east, the SLGT risk was expanded northward in the lower OH Valley. Here, diurnal heating/destabilization of a very moist air mass (upper 70s dewpoints) will continue to support loosely organized thunderstorm clusters capable of producing widely scattered damaging winds this afternoon. ..Weinman.. 06/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026/ ...Northern High Plains this afternoon into tonight... A rather active severe-weather scenario is anticipated regionally later today, including the potential for intense/locally significant severe storms. A lead shortwave trough/speed max will continue to approach through late today, with the exit region of a strong upper-level jet overspreading the region including 50+ kt southwesterlies above 5km AGL. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s F will continue to spread northward regionally, to the east of a deepening surface low across northeast Wyoming toward the far western Dakotas, and a sharpening lee trough/dryline across a more prevalent north/south extent of the High Plains. This low-level moistening will occur beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates emanating from the Great Basin and north-central Rockies. Initial surface-based development is expected near the surface low/trough near the Big Horn Mountains toward the Wyoming/Montana/North Dakota border vicinity. The maturing stronger initial storms will almost certainly be supercellular owing to moderate to large CAPE and a strong wind field. The risk for large to very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) is greatest near this aforementioned border region where supercells are forecast early in the convective life cycle, although additional/somewhat more discrete development will also likely occur a bit later farther southeastward across northwest South Dakota. A few tornadoes are also possible particularly in the more moisture-rich environment near the surface triple point, but relatively large temperature-dewpoint spreads and a transition to upscale growth may temper the tornado threat, particularly with northward extent either side of the Montana/North Dakota border vicinity. As more storms develop leading to storm mergers and coalescing outflow, a linear cluster will likely develop into a maturing/accelerating bow echo into western North Dakota this evening, with significant/intense thunderstorm winds (80+ mph) possible. Severe storms will likely develop eastward tonight across the Dakotas, and prior to that, diurnally enhanced, but more isolated intense, development is plausible as far south as western Nebraska with large hail and damaging winds. ...Northern Intermountain West including northern UT/western WY... Influenced by a lead shortwave trough/speed max associated with the prominent upper-level trough centered over the Pacific Northwest, strong to locally severe thunderstorm potential will probably exist early today. The prolifically strong wind field and modest destabilization will tend to focus today across northern Utah, southeast Idaho into western Wyoming, including the Star Valley vicinity. Severe-caliber wind gusts and some hail may occur. ...Mid-South/Tennessee/southern Kentucky to North Carolina... Multiple MCVs, including across far south-central Missouri and southeast Kansas at midday, will influence the region as they progress east-southward generally toward Kentucky and Tennessee. Related flow enhancement is evident in regional WSR-88d VWP data, and particularly in the 12z Lamont, OK observed sounding (40+ kt 4-9km AGL). See Mesoscale Discussion 1346 for additional short-term details. These MCVs will influence and semi-focus thunderstorm development within a moist and increasingly unstable boundary layer from the southeast Missouri/northeast Arkansas border vicinity into Kentucky and Tennessee. This includes the possibility of some supercells and well-organized clusters in the presence of 35-40 kt effective shear. Pockets of wind damage will be the most common risk, but some tornado potential will exist as well. Additional severe storms capable of wind damage are also expected farther eastward into the Carolinas this afternoon through around mid-evening. ...Texas Panhandle/West Texas late this afternoon/evening... Though forcing for ascent will be weak at best this far south, strong surface heating/mixing along the lee trough/dryline could support high-based thunderstorm development late this afternoon. Inverted-V profiles will favor the potential for isolated severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday. Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns. ...Central/Northern Plains to Upper Midwest... The forecast for Monday remains uncertain with forecast guidance depicting a wide envelop for severe potential across portions of the Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest. At the large scale, an upper ridge will persist from the central Gulf Coast northward to the Upper Great Lakes. Further west, a shortwave upper trough is forecast to eject from the central Rockies into Manitoba/western Ontario. This will bring a belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow across the northern Plains and Upper MS Valley. At the surface, low pressure or an MCV over the Dakotas will lift generally northeast while a trough/surface front extends southward across the eastern Dakotas. The evolution of these features is uncertain, with some guidance lifting the low and any accompany severe risk quickly northward into Canada early in the day. Other guidance is slower and further south, favoring a corridor of severe potential across the eastern Dakotas and MN during the day. While these details remain a question mark, a very moist airmass will be in place with strong to extreme instability forecast. Depending on mesoscale details, an all-hazards severe risk could develop - though damaging wind and large hail appear most likely at this time. Given uncertainty, outlook changes are modest with this update. ..Leitman.. 06/27/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday. Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns. ...Central/Northern Plains to Upper Midwest... The forecast for Monday remains uncertain with forecast guidance depicting a wide envelop for severe potential across portions of the Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest. At the large scale, an upper ridge will persist from the central Gulf Coast northward to the Upper Great Lakes. Further west, a shortwave upper trough is forecast to eject from the central Rockies into Manitoba/western Ontario. This will bring a belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow across the northern Plains and Upper MS Valley. At the surface, low pressure or an MCV over the Dakotas will lift generally northeast while a trough/surface front extends southward across the eastern Dakotas. The evolution of these features is uncertain, with some guidance lifting the low and any accompany severe risk quickly northward into Canada early in the day. Other guidance is slower and further south, favoring a corridor of severe potential across the eastern Dakotas and MN during the day. While these details remain a question mark, a very moist airmass will be in place with strong to extreme instability forecast. Depending on mesoscale details, an all-hazards severe risk could develop - though damaging wind and large hail appear most likely at this time. Given uncertainty, outlook changes are modest with this update. ..Leitman.. 06/27/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA...SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...WESTERN/CENTRAL COLORADO...AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Afternoon Update... Only slight adjustments were made to the Critical and Elevated highlights on Day 2/Sunday based on high-resolution guidance. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track for a third consecutive day of expansive fire weather conditions across the CO Plateau. Poor overnight humidity recoveries are expected in the Four Corners region and southwestern CO, further exacerbating the fire environment prior to the arrival of stronger winds in the afternoon. At peak heating, 5-15% RH values will combine with 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly winds where very dry fuels exist. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough centered within the Intermountain West will begin to pivot northeastward on D2/Sunday, with an associated mid-level jet continuing to be oriented across the Four Corners region and a cold front progressing slowly southeastward, and potentially stalling, across the West. This will continue to promote robust fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Four Corners region... A third consecutive day of enhanced sustained surface winds of 20-25+ mph and dry RH of 10-20% is forecast across portions of the eastern Great Basin and Southwest on Sunday. Latest guidance continues to depict a corridor of 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly winds (with the potential for occasional gusts to 35-40 mph) amid very low RH of 10-15%. With this multi-day period of dry/breezy conditions exacerbating fuel dryness/receptiveness (and ERCs already noted to be in the 80-95+ percentiles), several hours of critical fire weather conditions are expected Sunday afternoon, extending from northern Arizona into southeastern Utah, northeastern New Mexico, and southwestern Colorado. A broader area of elevated fire weather conditions is expected across adjacent areas of the Great Basin/Southwest where winds of 15-25 mph are forecast to overlap low RH of 10-20%. Minor adjustments were made to the Elevated/Critical highlights with this cycle based on the latest high-res guidance, including slight expansions of the Critical and Elevated highlights southward and westward, respectively. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA...SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...WESTERN/CENTRAL COLORADO...AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Afternoon Update... Only slight adjustments were made to the Critical and Elevated highlights on Day 2/Sunday based on high-resolution guidance. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track for a third consecutive day of expansive fire weather conditions across the CO Plateau. Poor overnight humidity recoveries are expected in the Four Corners region and southwestern CO, further exacerbating the fire environment prior to the arrival of stronger winds in the afternoon. At peak heating, 5-15% RH values will combine with 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly winds where very dry fuels exist. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough centered within the Intermountain West will begin to pivot northeastward on D2/Sunday, with an associated mid-level jet continuing to be oriented across the Four Corners region and a cold front progressing slowly southeastward, and potentially stalling, across the West. This will continue to promote robust fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Four Corners region... A third consecutive day of enhanced sustained surface winds of 20-25+ mph and dry RH of 10-20% is forecast across portions of the eastern Great Basin and Southwest on Sunday. Latest guidance continues to depict a corridor of 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly winds (with the potential for occasional gusts to 35-40 mph) amid very low RH of 10-15%. With this multi-day period of dry/breezy conditions exacerbating fuel dryness/receptiveness (and ERCs already noted to be in the 80-95+ percentiles), several hours of critical fire weather conditions are expected Sunday afternoon, extending from northern Arizona into southeastern Utah, northeastern New Mexico, and southwestern Colorado. A broader area of elevated fire weather conditions is expected across adjacent areas of the Great Basin/Southwest where winds of 15-25 mph are forecast to overlap low RH of 10-20%. Minor adjustments were made to the Elevated/Critical highlights with this cycle based on the latest high-res guidance, including slight expansions of the Critical and Elevated highlights southward and westward, respectively. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Plains into parts of the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... A challenging forecast scenario is expected on Sunday across portions of the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. Upper ridging is expected to amplify over the Mid/Upper MS Valley and western Great Lakes vicinity. This will result in capping concerns across the region owing to height rises and warming aloft, especially from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. However, surface troughing will sharpen and extend southward across the central Dakotas into the central Plains. Meanwhile, a warm front/moisture gradient will extend southeastward from northern MN into WI and the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. Overnight, a surface low is forecast to mildly deepen somewhere from western NE into SD. Forecast guidance continues to show uncertainty in the evolution of this feature. Southeasterly low-level flow will transport rich boundary layer moisture westward across the region, with dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F common. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the Red River and Upper MS Valley during the day, while lapse rates further west steepen during the evening/overnight. This will result in corridors of moderate to strong instability within the warm sector to the east of the surface trough and south of the warm front. However, given the building upper ridge, capping may persist across the region, limiting potential for surface-based convection. Storms are expected to be ongoing Sunday morning across the eastern Dakotas and will spread east through the day. While this activity may be elevated, large hail is possible. A southerly low-level jet is expected to persist through the daytime, and if storms can become near-surface based, some damaging wind potential also would exist. It is unclear how far east this convection may persist as it crests the building upper ridge. Overnight, convection is expected to develop near the surface low/trough on the leading edge of a strong southerly low-level jet across western or central SD. This activity may be elevated, but will likely initially be supercell mode with an attendant risk for large to very large hail. If convection grows upscale, some wind risk is also possible, but this is more uncertain given capping concerns. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... An MCV is expected to move across the NC vicinity on Sunday. Ahead of this feature, a seasonally very moist and moderately unstable airmass will be in place. Deep-layer flow will be modest, but the MCV may locally enhance vertical shear and provide support for a band of forward propagating convection moving off the higher terrain during the after and early evening. Sporadic strong/damaging wind gusts will be possible with these storms. ...Southern Plains... A dryline will be oriented from western KS into southwest TX Sunday afternoon/evening. Strong heating is expected along the boundary along with sufficient dryline convergence. Deep boundary circulations and a narrow corridor of moderate instability will support isolated storm development. Strong downburst/outflow winds will be possible with these storms as generally weak vertical shear limits stronger updrafts longevity/organization. ..Leitman.. 06/27/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today across the northern High Plains including northeast Wyoming and eastern Montana into the western Dakotas, with storms capable of very large hail, very strong outflow winds (80+ mph), and tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. ...Northern High Plains this afternoon into tonight... A rather active severe-weather scenario is anticipated regionally later today, including the potential for intense/locally significant severe storms. A lead shortwave trough/speed max will continue to approach through late today, with the exit region of a strong upper-level jet overspreading the region including 50+ kt southwesterlies above 5km AGL. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s F will continue to spread northward regionally, to the east of a deepening surface low across northeast Wyoming toward the far western Dakotas, and a sharpening lee trough/dryline across a more prevalent north/south extent of the High Plains. This low-level moistening will occur beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates emanating from the Great Basin and north-central Rockies. Initial surface-based development is expected near the surface low/trough near the Big Horn Mountains toward the Wyoming/Montana/North Dakota border vicinity. The maturing stronger initial storms will almost certainly be supercellular owing to moderate to large CAPE and a strong wind field. The risk for large to very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) is greatest near this aforementioned border region where supercells are forecast early in the convective life cycle, although additional/somewhat more discrete development will also likely occur a bit later farther southeastward across northwest South Dakota. A few tornadoes are also possible particularly in the more moisture-rich environment near the surface triple point, but relatively large temperature-dewpoint spreads and a transition to upscale growth may temper the tornado threat, particularly with northward extent either side of the Montana/North Dakota border vicinity. As more storms develop leading to storm mergers and coalescing outflow, a linear cluster will likely develop into a maturing/accelerating bow echo into western North Dakota this evening, with significant/intense thunderstorm winds (80+ mph) possible. Severe storms will likely develop eastward tonight across the Dakotas, and prior to that, diurnally enhanced, but more isolated intense, development is plausible as far south as western Nebraska with large hail and damaging winds. ...Northern Intermountain West including northern UT/western WY... Influenced by a lead shortwave trough/speed max associated with the prominent upper-level trough centered over the Pacific Northwest, strong to locally severe thunderstorm potential will probably exist early today. The prolifically strong wind field and modest destabilization will tend to focus today across northern Utah, southeast Idaho into western Wyoming, including the Star Valley vicinity. Severe-caliber wind gusts and some hail may occur. ...Mid-South/Tennessee/southern Kentucky to North Carolina... Multiple MCVs, including across far south-central Missouri and southeast Kansas at midday, will influence the region as they progress east-southward generally toward Kentucky and Tennessee. Related flow enhancement is evident in regional WSR-88d VWP data, and particularly in the 12z Lamont, OK observed sounding (40+ kt 4-9km AGL). See Mesoscale Discussion 1346 for additional short-term details. These MCVs will influence and semi-focus thunderstorm development within a moist and increasingly unstable boundary layer from the southeast Missouri/northeast Arkansas border vicinity into Kentucky and Tennessee. This includes the possibility of some supercells and well-organized clusters in the presence of 35-40 kt effective shear. Pockets of wind damage will be the most common risk, but some tornado potential will exist as well. Additional severe storms capable of wind damage are also expected farther eastward into the Carolinas this afternoon through around mid-evening. ...Texas Panhandle/West Texas late this afternoon/evening... Though forcing for ascent will be weak at best this far south, strong surface heating/mixing along the lee trough/dryline could support high-based thunderstorm development late this afternoon. Inverted-V profiles will favor the potential for isolated severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 06/27/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN/SOUTHERN NEVADA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN UTAH...WESTERN COLORADO...NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL WYOMING... ***Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected today across eastern Utah, western Colorado, and the Four Corners region.*** ...Morning Update... A cold front pushed into northern UT and southwestern WY last night, and has become nearly stationary this morning. South of the front, very poor to essentially no RH recoveries occurred from central-southern UT into northern AZ. Current surface observations depict widespread critical RH values (below 15%) across the CO River Basin as temperatures rise. As an unseasonably strong upper trough digs into the western CONUS, a 40-60 kt 700 mb jet will emerge downstream expanding from the AZ Strip to the CO West Slope. Minimal cloud cover and deep boundary-layer mixing will further reinforce stronger winds aloft to mix down to the surface. Sustained wind speeds of 25-35 mph (potentially up to 40 mph in terrain favored locations) will combine with widespread 5-15% RH values atop a receptive fuelscape, maintaining an Extremely Critical fire weather threat. Persisting hazardous fire weather conditions -- with potential lightning holdovers from previous days and many ongoing active wildfires -- will generate a dangerous long duration burning period (10+ hours for some locations) as poor overnight humidity recoveries and lingering breezy conditions will last into Day 2/Sunday. Additionally, a secondary cold front will push through the Great Basin this evening, passing through western-central UT between 23z-03z, then stalling overnight along the western edge of the Colorado Plateau. RH will increase, but winds will shift to west/northwesterly behind the front with a few hours of strong gusts (25 mph or greater) before eventually calming some overnight. This cold front will likely impact a number of fires in southeastern NV into western/central UT this evening. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026/ ...Synopsis... ***Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected today across eastern Utah, western Colorado, and the Four Corners region.*** A robust fire weather pattern will continue across portions of the Great Basin and Southwest today as a seasonably strong mid-level trough continues to dig into the western CONUS and an attendant mid-level jet amplifies across portions of the Great Basin. Continued exceptionally dry and windy conditions following antecedent dry thunderstorm activity will result in significant fire weather concerns for any new ignitions, lingering holdovers, and ongoing large fires across the western CONUS. ...Eastern Utah, western Colorado, and the Four Corners region... As the aforementioned mid-level jet amplifies across portions of the Great Basin, a corridor of stronger sustained, southwesterly surface winds will expand eastward from southeastern Nevada into the Upper Colorado River Valley. These 25-35 mph (potentially up to 40 mph in terrain favored locations) winds will overlap very low RH values of 5-15% and receptive fuels (ERCs noted in the 80-95+ percentiles) that were exacerbated by dry/breezy conditions on Friday. Wind gusts of 40-50+ mph will also be possible due to deep boundary layer mixing coupled with the strengthening mid-level jet. This will promote extremely critical fire weather conditions from the Four Corners region northward into eastern Utah and western Colorado and an extended period (10+ hours of for some locations) of critical fire weather conditions across a broader portion of the Great Basin. In addition, isolated dry thunderstorm activity on Friday presents an additional concern for potential lightning holdovers to emerge, with poor overnight humidity recoveries and lingering breezy conditions also forecast before another day of critical fire weather concerns on D2/Sunday. A broader area of elevated wind/RH conditions is also expected today across much of the Great Basin and Southwest where sustained southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph overlap low RH of 10-20%. The primary change with this outlook was a northward expansion of the Extremely Critical highlights owing to trends within the latest model guidance. Brief periods of localized extremely critical conditions are also possible farther west into southeastern Nevada and portions of north-central Arizona (in the vicinity of recent wildfire activity); however, confidence in an extended duration of overlap between 30+ mph sustained winds and RH below 10% is lower for these locations. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jun 27 06:06:06 UTC 2026.

WW 0402 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 402 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E BGD TO 75 SE LBL TO 55 ESE LBL TO 35 E LBL TO 15 NNE LBL TO 20 S GCK TO 20 ESE GCK TO 40 SSW HLC. ..JEWELL..06/27/26 ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 402 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC025-057-069-083-119-135-175-270740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK FORD GRAY HODGEMAN MEADE NESS SEWARD OKC007-270740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER TXC211-295-270740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HEMPHILL LIPSCOMB Read more

WW 402 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 270225Z - 270800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 402 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 925 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Kansas Eastern Oklahoma Panhandle Northeast Texas Panhandle * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 925 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A line of strong to severe storms is expected to continue eastward into southwest Kansas and adjacent portions of the central/eastern Oklahoma and northeastern Texas Panhandles. Strong gusts are the primary risk, with isolated instances of large hail possible as well. Low-level stability is gradually increasing, keeping the potential for a tornado low, although still non zero. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles northwest of Garden City KS to 80 miles south southeast of Guymon OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 398...WW 400...WW 401... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Mosier Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Plains into parts of the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... The western U.S. trough will remain in place on Sunday with an amplifying upper ridge in the East. A surface low is expected to develop within the central/northern High Plains, though the location is still uncertain. A surface boundary will be present from the Mid-Atlantic through the Ohio Valley and mid Mississippi Valley. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... The forecast remains rather complex across these regions. Convection is generally expected to be ongoing during the early morning across parts of eastern North Dakota into northern Minnesota. While this activity is not expected to be particularly strong, it may modulate the northward progression of a surface boundary. In the wake of the morning activity, at least a narrow zone of moderate buoyancy (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected to develop in central/eastern North Dakota. Nebulous mid-level ascent casts some doubt on whether storms will be able to form on an outflow boundary/surface trough. Should storms develop, they may only be surface based for a short period if at all. 50+ kt of effective shear and sufficient mid-level lapse rates will support some risk of large hail and severe winds. During the evening/overnight, the surface low is expected to deepen somewhere in the High Plains. Storm development is possible as this occurs. Where this occurs is still uncertain, but the Nebraska Panhandle into western South Dakota are currently the most probable. If convection can develop, it will most likely be elevated in nature. The strong low-level jet would likely support some eastward progress. Damaging winds and isolated large hail could occur with this activity. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... Guidance continues to depict an MCV moving through the region. The timing and intensity of this feature has been variable in the last couple of model cycles. Overall deep-layer flow will be weak outside of the influence of the MCV. Given the moist airmass in place, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of this feature. Damaging wind gusts are possible, particularly where storms can cluster. ..Wendt.. 06/27/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MT AND WESTERN ND... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...AND ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A mix of initial supercells and later storm clusters will produce swaths of severe outflow winds and very large hail across the northern High Plains late this afternoon into early tonight. Isolated wind damage will also be possible from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Carolinas, as well as across west Texas and the Texas Panhandle. ...Northern High Plains this afternoon into tonight... Embedded speed maxima will rotate northeastward over the northern High Plains, around the eastern periphery of a close midlevel low evolving over the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will continue to spread northward from KS/NE to the Dakotas, east of a deep lee trough/cyclone across the central/northern High Plains. The moistening will occur beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, which combined with daytime heating will result in large CAPE. Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along both the surface trough/lee cyclone near the MT/ND border and near the Big Horn Mountains. The initial storms could be supercells with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter) near the ND/MT border, and a couple of tornadoes with any supercells anchored along the surface boundary, though relatively large temperature-dewpoint spreads and mode concerns could temper the tornado threat somewhat. By late evening and early tonight, storms will likely grow upscale and move northeastward across ND as one or more MCSs with severe outflow winds (potentially 80+ mph) in the steep lapse rate environment. More isolated supercells will also be possible farther south into western SD/NE where isolated very large hail and significant severe outflow gusts will be possible. ...TN/southern KY to NC this afternoon... An MCV now over eastern KY will continue eastward near the VA/NC border during the day, and additional MCVs are likely to emerge from ongoing storm clusters moving eastward across OK, southwest KS and the TX Panhandle. Ascent with the MCVs, as well as residual outflow/differential heating zones, will help focus thunderstorm development during the afternoon in a moist, unstable environment. Occasional wind damage will be possible with storm clusters where low-level lapse rates are relatively steep (south of persistent clouds) and there is some enhancement of midlevel flow. An isolated tornado may also occur in the warm advection zone with enhanced low-level hodograph curvature across TN on the southwest flank of the western MCV, though confidence in this scenario is low. ...TX Panhandle into west TX late this afternoon/evening... Though forcing for ascent will be weak at best this far south, strong surface heating/mixing along the lee trough/dryline could support high-based thunderstorm development late this afternoon. Inverted-V profiles will favor the potential for isolated severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph. ..Thompson/Chalmers.. 06/27/2026 Read more

WW 0401 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 401 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE P28 TO 25 NNW GMJ TO 25 N FYV. ..KERR..06/27/26 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 401 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-270540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON OKC003-011-017-035-037-039-041-043-045-047-053-059-071-073-081- 083-093-097-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-129-131-143-147- 151-153-270540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BLAINE CANADIAN CRAIG CREEK CUSTER DELAWARE DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT HARPER KAY KINGFISHER LINCOLN LOGAN MAJOR MAYES NOBLE NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE ROGER MILLS ROGERS TULSA Read more

WW 401 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 262255Z - 270600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 401 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 555 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Northwest Arkansas Far Southeast Kansas Southwest and South Central Missouri Northern Oklahoma * Effective this Friday afternoon and Saturday morning from 555 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected to continue along a surface boundary extending across far northern Oklahoma into southwest/south-central Missouri. Strong buoyancy and moderate shear will support occasionally organized storm structures capable of isolated hail and strong downdrafts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 85 miles west southwest of Alva OK to 40 miles southeast of Fort Leonard Wood MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 397...WW 398...WW 399...WW 400... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0400 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 400 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S RAP TO 20 WNW RAP. ..KERR..06/27/26 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...GGW...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 400 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC017-270540- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUSTER SDC055-063-103-137-270540- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HAAKON HARDING PENNINGTON ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0398 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 398 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW DHT TO 30 N CAO TO 30 NNE LAA TO 5 SW SNY TO 30 S BFF TO 15 W AIA. PARTS OF REMAINING VALID PORTION OF 398 MAY BE EXTENDED LOCALLY IN TIME FOR AN HOUR OR SO. ..KERR..06/27/26 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...CYS...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 398 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-017-061-063-099-125-270300- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA CHEYENNE KIOWA KIT CARSON PROWERS YUMA NEC033-105-123-270300- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIMBALL MORRILL OKC025-139-270300- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 1319 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 392... FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1319 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0507 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026 Areas affected...portions of the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle...northeastern Texas Panhandle...and northwestern Oklahoma Concerning...Tornado Watch 392... Valid 252207Z - 252330Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 392 continues. SUMMARY...A discrete supercell in the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle will pose a risk primarily for large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts over the next 1-2 hours. The tornado risk with this storm remains more uncertain. DISCUSSION...A discrete supercell has intensified along a remnant outflow boundary in Beaver County, Oklahoma over the past hour. A couple of tornadoes have been reported with this cell, and MRMS and other MESH estimates have ranged up to 4+ inches over the past 30-60 minutes. Given the favorable environment and the potential for this cell to remain largely discrete for another hour or two before it potentially interacts with convection to the southwest, large to very large hail (potentially up to 2+ inches in diameter) and damaging wind gusts will remain possible with this supercell. Bunkers right motion and the recent track of the supercell suggest that it may remain along the remnant outflow boundary. In this scenario, tornado potential will remain greater given the favorable low-level shear along/north of the outflow boundary (100+ 0-500 m SRH sampled by the VNX VAD profile). Should this supercell attain more of a southeastward track, however, it would encounter a drier, more well-mixed boundary layer exists (MLLCLs exceeding 2 km per latest objective analysis and the 18z AMA observed sounding), which would result in a lower tornado threat. ..Chalmers.. 06/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... LAT...LON 36530036 36680037 36840020 36839993 36779957 36699933 36569926 36429923 36299942 36309980 36380013 36480036 36530036 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1318 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1318 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0505 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026 Areas affected...Northeastern Oklahoma into northwestern Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 252205Z - 252330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The potential for a few strong to severe gusts and hail will continue spreading east-southeastward in the near term. DISCUSSION...Aided by a remnant MCV and midlevel trough moving across eastern KS, a long-lived cluster of thunderstorms is tracking east-southeastward across northeastern OK this afternoon. Given the well-established cold pool, around 35 kt of 0-6 km shear (per INX VWP), and a warm/moist PBL immediately downstream, strong to severe wind gusts and sporadic severe hail will remain possible in the near term. However, as the cluster of storms becomes increasingly displaced from the MCV/midlevel trough and related enhancement to the deep-layer shear (much weaker flow from SRX VWP), a gradual weakening trend is expected over the next few hours. Therefore, a downstream watch is not currently expected, though convective trends are being monitored. ..Weinman/Mosier.. 06/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA... LAT...LON 35439497 35739567 35969578 36289558 36489528 36459454 36289399 35919343 35549346 35229388 35439497 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1320 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 391... FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND ADJACENT COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1320 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0554 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026 Areas affected...Southeast Wyoming and adjacent counties of southwest Nebraska and northeast Colorado Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391... Valid 252254Z - 260030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391 continues. SUMMARY...A convective band with a well formed cold pool will continue developing southeastward with occasional severe gusts into southeast Wyoming and adjacent counties in Nebraska/Colorado. DISCUSSION...Over the past few hours convection has evolved into a well formed leading convective band/trailing stratiform rain configuration, and wind profiles are helping maintain updrafts along the gust front. The storms will likely persist for another 2-3 hours while moving southeastward across southeast WY where slightly warmer temperatures/moisture persist at relatively high elevation, compared to cooler temperatures farther east at lower elevation into the NE Panhandle. Occasional severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph will be the main threats through 01z. While eastward progress of the stronger storms will be limited by weakening buoyancy with eastward extent into NE, the storms could persist into parts of north/northeast CO with a low-end severe wind threat through about 03z. Since the potential area affected outside of the existing watch in WY) is small, the need for a downstream watch is not clear. ..Thompson.. 06/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41910399 41470344 40650353 40450420 40570509 41240585 41510590 41900531 42390494 42630477 42630440 41910399 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more