Storm Prediction Center

WW 0517 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0517 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0517 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0517 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0517 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0517 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 517 SEVERE TSTM TN 270110Z - 270600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 517 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 810 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Middle Tennessee * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 810 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...A linear cluster of severe thunderstorms will move southward into the Watch this evening. The primary hazard will be severe gusts (60 to 70 mph) capable of wind damage with the stronger downbursts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles northwest of Fort Campbell KY to 110 miles south of Clarksville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 516... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 36035. ...Smith Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds (possibly 75+ mph), and tornado risk remain likely from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes southwestward into Nebraska, mainly late this evening and tonight. ...Upper Midwest... A very unstable environment remains in place across the region, with the MPX, GRB, and DVN 00Z soundings sampling MLCAPE from 3100, 2900, and 2800 J/kg, respectively. Surface observations show mid to upper 70s dewpoints on the warm side of the warm front extending from north-central MN through northeast WI/far western Upper MI. A thunderstorm has matured upstream of this corridor, with the expectation it will remain strong to severe as it continues southeastward. Modest low-level warm advection into this boundary will also contribute to additional thunderstorms this evening and overnight. Environmental conditions are still expected to support large to very large hail early in the convective cycle while a more cellular mode is likely. Thereafter, a trend towards bowing segments capable of severe wind gusts is anticipated. A singular MCS could eventually develop, with severe gusts possible as it moves southward as well. Some gusts, both within the line segments and early in the MCS lifecycle, could be significant (i.e. over 75 mph). ...TN Valley... A cold-pool-driven MCS continues to propagate south-southeast at approximately 40 kts. The downstream airmass is very moist, with numerous sites reporting dewpoints in the low 80s. This moisture is contributing to extreme buoyancy, with the recent 00Z BNA sounding sampling 4500 J/kg of SBCAPE. This MCS is also oriented perpendicular to the deep-layer vertical shear. All of these factors will contribute to continued southward progression, with an attendant risk for strong gusts likely extending into Middle TN this evening. ...South-Central into Southeast SD into central NE... Numerous attempts at deep convection along the weak surface trough extending from south-central SD through central NE have failed thus far. The window of opportunity for deep convection will likely remain open for the next hour or two before building inhibition associated with nocturnal cooling precludes mature convection. Until that occurs, there remains a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms capable of strong downdrafts and isolated large hail. ...Elsewhere... Increasing thunderstorm coverage is possible across the Mid-Atlantic over the next few hours as a shortwave trough progresses southeastward across the region. Moderate vertical shear could support updraft organization with deeper, more persistent convection. Isolated damaging gusts and hail are possible with the more organized storms. Isolated damaging gusts remain possible across northern Wyoming and far southwest South Dakota as high-based thunderstorms track northeastward across the region this evening. Jackson Hole Wyoming reported a gust of 50 kt at 2353Z. ..Mosier.. 07/27/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds (possibly 75+ mph), and tornado risk remain likely from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes southwestward into Nebraska, mainly late this evening and tonight. ...Upper Midwest... A very unstable environment remains in place across the region, with the MPX, GRB, and DVN 00Z soundings sampling MLCAPE from 3100, 2900, and 2800 J/kg, respectively. Surface observations show mid to upper 70s dewpoints on the warm side of the warm front extending from north-central MN through northeast WI/far western Upper MI. A thunderstorm has matured upstream of this corridor, with the expectation it will remain strong to severe as it continues southeastward. Modest low-level warm advection into this boundary will also contribute to additional thunderstorms this evening and overnight. Environmental conditions are still expected to support large to very large hail early in the convective cycle while a more cellular mode is likely. Thereafter, a trend towards bowing segments capable of severe wind gusts is anticipated. A singular MCS could eventually develop, with severe gusts possible as it moves southward as well. Some gusts, both within the line segments and early in the MCS lifecycle, could be significant (i.e. over 75 mph). ...TN Valley... A cold-pool-driven MCS continues to propagate south-southeast at approximately 40 kts. The downstream airmass is very moist, with numerous sites reporting dewpoints in the low 80s. This moisture is contributing to extreme buoyancy, with the recent 00Z BNA sounding sampling 4500 J/kg of SBCAPE. This MCS is also oriented perpendicular to the deep-layer vertical shear. All of these factors will contribute to continued southward progression, with an attendant risk for strong gusts likely extending into Middle TN this evening. ...South-Central into Southeast SD into central NE... Numerous attempts at deep convection along the weak surface trough extending from south-central SD through central NE have failed thus far. The window of opportunity for deep convection will likely remain open for the next hour or two before building inhibition associated with nocturnal cooling precludes mature convection. Until that occurs, there remains a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms capable of strong downdrafts and isolated large hail. ...Elsewhere... Increasing thunderstorm coverage is possible across the Mid-Atlantic over the next few hours as a shortwave trough progresses southeastward across the region. Moderate vertical shear could support updraft organization with deeper, more persistent convection. Isolated damaging gusts and hail are possible with the more organized storms. Isolated damaging gusts remain possible across northern Wyoming and far southwest South Dakota as high-based thunderstorms track northeastward across the region this evening. Jackson Hole Wyoming reported a gust of 50 kt at 2353Z. ..Mosier.. 07/27/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds (possibly 75+ mph), and tornado risk remain likely from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes southwestward into Nebraska, mainly late this evening and tonight. ...Upper Midwest... A very unstable environment remains in place across the region, with the MPX, GRB, and DVN 00Z soundings sampling MLCAPE from 3100, 2900, and 2800 J/kg, respectively. Surface observations show mid to upper 70s dewpoints on the warm side of the warm front extending from north-central MN through northeast WI/far western Upper MI. A thunderstorm has matured upstream of this corridor, with the expectation it will remain strong to severe as it continues southeastward. Modest low-level warm advection into this boundary will also contribute to additional thunderstorms this evening and overnight. Environmental conditions are still expected to support large to very large hail early in the convective cycle while a more cellular mode is likely. Thereafter, a trend towards bowing segments capable of severe wind gusts is anticipated. A singular MCS could eventually develop, with severe gusts possible as it moves southward as well. Some gusts, both within the line segments and early in the MCS lifecycle, could be significant (i.e. over 75 mph). ...TN Valley... A cold-pool-driven MCS continues to propagate south-southeast at approximately 40 kts. The downstream airmass is very moist, with numerous sites reporting dewpoints in the low 80s. This moisture is contributing to extreme buoyancy, with the recent 00Z BNA sounding sampling 4500 J/kg of SBCAPE. This MCS is also oriented perpendicular to the deep-layer vertical shear. All of these factors will contribute to continued southward progression, with an attendant risk for strong gusts likely extending into Middle TN this evening. ...South-Central into Southeast SD into central NE... Numerous attempts at deep convection along the weak surface trough extending from south-central SD through central NE have failed thus far. The window of opportunity for deep convection will likely remain open for the next hour or two before building inhibition associated with nocturnal cooling precludes mature convection. Until that occurs, there remains a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms capable of strong downdrafts and isolated large hail. ...Elsewhere... Increasing thunderstorm coverage is possible across the Mid-Atlantic over the next few hours as a shortwave trough progresses southeastward across the region. Moderate vertical shear could support updraft organization with deeper, more persistent convection. Isolated damaging gusts and hail are possible with the more organized storms. Isolated damaging gusts remain possible across northern Wyoming and far southwest South Dakota as high-based thunderstorms track northeastward across the region this evening. Jackson Hole Wyoming reported a gust of 50 kt at 2353Z. ..Mosier.. 07/27/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds (possibly 75+ mph), and tornado risk remain likely from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes southwestward into Nebraska, mainly late this evening and tonight. ...Upper Midwest... A very unstable environment remains in place across the region, with the MPX, GRB, and DVN 00Z soundings sampling MLCAPE from 3100, 2900, and 2800 J/kg, respectively. Surface observations show mid to upper 70s dewpoints on the warm side of the warm front extending from north-central MN through northeast WI/far western Upper MI. A thunderstorm has matured upstream of this corridor, with the expectation it will remain strong to severe as it continues southeastward. Modest low-level warm advection into this boundary will also contribute to additional thunderstorms this evening and overnight. Environmental conditions are still expected to support large to very large hail early in the convective cycle while a more cellular mode is likely. Thereafter, a trend towards bowing segments capable of severe wind gusts is anticipated. A singular MCS could eventually develop, with severe gusts possible as it moves southward as well. Some gusts, both within the line segments and early in the MCS lifecycle, could be significant (i.e. over 75 mph). ...TN Valley... A cold-pool-driven MCS continues to propagate south-southeast at approximately 40 kts. The downstream airmass is very moist, with numerous sites reporting dewpoints in the low 80s. This moisture is contributing to extreme buoyancy, with the recent 00Z BNA sounding sampling 4500 J/kg of SBCAPE. This MCS is also oriented perpendicular to the deep-layer vertical shear. All of these factors will contribute to continued southward progression, with an attendant risk for strong gusts likely extending into Middle TN this evening. ...South-Central into Southeast SD into central NE... Numerous attempts at deep convection along the weak surface trough extending from south-central SD through central NE have failed thus far. The window of opportunity for deep convection will likely remain open for the next hour or two before building inhibition associated with nocturnal cooling precludes mature convection. Until that occurs, there remains a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms capable of strong downdrafts and isolated large hail. ...Elsewhere... Increasing thunderstorm coverage is possible across the Mid-Atlantic over the next few hours as a shortwave trough progresses southeastward across the region. Moderate vertical shear could support updraft organization with deeper, more persistent convection. Isolated damaging gusts and hail are possible with the more organized storms. Isolated damaging gusts remain possible across northern Wyoming and far southwest South Dakota as high-based thunderstorms track northeastward across the region this evening. Jackson Hole Wyoming reported a gust of 50 kt at 2353Z. ..Mosier.. 07/27/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds (possibly 75+ mph), and tornado risk remain likely from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes southwestward into Nebraska, mainly late this evening and tonight. ...Upper Midwest... A very unstable environment remains in place across the region, with the MPX, GRB, and DVN 00Z soundings sampling MLCAPE from 3100, 2900, and 2800 J/kg, respectively. Surface observations show mid to upper 70s dewpoints on the warm side of the warm front extending from north-central MN through northeast WI/far western Upper MI. A thunderstorm has matured upstream of this corridor, with the expectation it will remain strong to severe as it continues southeastward. Modest low-level warm advection into this boundary will also contribute to additional thunderstorms this evening and overnight. Environmental conditions are still expected to support large to very large hail early in the convective cycle while a more cellular mode is likely. Thereafter, a trend towards bowing segments capable of severe wind gusts is anticipated. A singular MCS could eventually develop, with severe gusts possible as it moves southward as well. Some gusts, both within the line segments and early in the MCS lifecycle, could be significant (i.e. over 75 mph). ...TN Valley... A cold-pool-driven MCS continues to propagate south-southeast at approximately 40 kts. The downstream airmass is very moist, with numerous sites reporting dewpoints in the low 80s. This moisture is contributing to extreme buoyancy, with the recent 00Z BNA sounding sampling 4500 J/kg of SBCAPE. This MCS is also oriented perpendicular to the deep-layer vertical shear. All of these factors will contribute to continued southward progression, with an attendant risk for strong gusts likely extending into Middle TN this evening. ...South-Central into Southeast SD into central NE... Numerous attempts at deep convection along the weak surface trough extending from south-central SD through central NE have failed thus far. The window of opportunity for deep convection will likely remain open for the next hour or two before building inhibition associated with nocturnal cooling precludes mature convection. Until that occurs, there remains a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms capable of strong downdrafts and isolated large hail. ...Elsewhere... Increasing thunderstorm coverage is possible across the Mid-Atlantic over the next few hours as a shortwave trough progresses southeastward across the region. Moderate vertical shear could support updraft organization with deeper, more persistent convection. Isolated damaging gusts and hail are possible with the more organized storms. Isolated damaging gusts remain possible across northern Wyoming and far southwest South Dakota as high-based thunderstorms track northeastward across the region this evening. Jackson Hole Wyoming reported a gust of 50 kt at 2353Z. ..Mosier.. 07/27/2026 Read more

MD 1749 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 1749 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Areas affected...portions of western into middle Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 270034Z - 270130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Damaging gusts, a few of which may be severe, are expected to accompany an approaching MCS. If the MCS maintains intensity while approaching the KY/TN border over the next hour or so, a WW issuance may be needed. DISCUSSION...A cold-pool-driven MCS, with a history of wind damage, continues propagate south-southeast at approximately 40 kts. It is plausible that this MCS will maintain intensity given the combination of 4500+ J/kg MLCAPE and 35-40 kts of effective bulk shear (oriented perpendicular to the leading line) preceding the cluster. Assuming this remains the case, the MCS is poised to enter TN by around 0130Z. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance may be needed beforehand to address the impending severe threat if this MCS maintains its current intensity. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 07/27/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 36168899 36408859 36538818 36638744 36628666 36388650 35848638 35348647 35138662 35028682 35038759 35068816 35098839 35208867 36168899 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0516 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE MDH TO 35 WSW EVV TO 25 WSW OWB TO 5 S OWB TO 45 W SDF TO 35 W SDF. ..SQUITIERI..07/27/26 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...LSX...IND...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC059-069-087-127-151-165-199-270140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GALLATIN HARDIN JOHNSON MASSAC POPE SALINE WILLIAMSON KYC003-009-027-031-033-035-047-055-059-061-083-085-091-107-139- 141-143-145-149-157-171-177-183-213-219-221-225-227-233- 270140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BARREN BRECKINRIDGE BUTLER CALDWELL CALLOWAY CHRISTIAN CRITTENDEN DAVIESS EDMONSON GRAVES GRAYSON HANCOCK HOPKINS LIVINGSTON LOGAN LYON MCCRACKEN MCLEAN MARSHALL MONROE MUHLENBERG OHIO SIMPSON Read more

WW 0516 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE MDH TO 35 WSW EVV TO 25 WSW OWB TO 5 S OWB TO 45 W SDF TO 35 W SDF. ..SQUITIERI..07/27/26 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...LSX...IND...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC059-069-087-127-151-165-199-270140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GALLATIN HARDIN JOHNSON MASSAC POPE SALINE WILLIAMSON KYC003-009-027-031-033-035-047-055-059-061-083-085-091-107-139- 141-143-145-149-157-171-177-183-213-219-221-225-227-233- 270140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BARREN BRECKINRIDGE BUTLER CALDWELL CALLOWAY CHRISTIAN CRITTENDEN DAVIESS EDMONSON GRAVES GRAYSON HANCOCK HOPKINS LIVINGSTON LOGAN LYON MCCRACKEN MCLEAN MARSHALL MONROE MUHLENBERG OHIO SIMPSON Read more

WW 0516 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE MDH TO 35 WSW EVV TO 25 WSW OWB TO 5 S OWB TO 45 W SDF TO 35 W SDF. ..SQUITIERI..07/27/26 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...LSX...IND...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC059-069-087-127-151-165-199-270140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GALLATIN HARDIN JOHNSON MASSAC POPE SALINE WILLIAMSON KYC003-009-027-031-033-035-047-055-059-061-083-085-091-107-139- 141-143-145-149-157-171-177-183-213-219-221-225-227-233- 270140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BARREN BRECKINRIDGE BUTLER CALDWELL CALLOWAY CHRISTIAN CRITTENDEN DAVIESS EDMONSON GRAVES GRAYSON HANCOCK HOPKINS LIVINGSTON LOGAN LYON MCCRACKEN MCLEAN MARSHALL MONROE MUHLENBERG OHIO SIMPSON Read more

WW 0516 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE MDH TO 35 WSW EVV TO 25 WSW OWB TO 5 S OWB TO 45 W SDF TO 35 W SDF. ..SQUITIERI..07/27/26 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...LSX...IND...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC059-069-087-127-151-165-199-270140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GALLATIN HARDIN JOHNSON MASSAC POPE SALINE WILLIAMSON KYC003-009-027-031-033-035-047-055-059-061-083-085-091-107-139- 141-143-145-149-157-171-177-183-213-219-221-225-227-233- 270140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BARREN BRECKINRIDGE BUTLER CALDWELL CALLOWAY CHRISTIAN CRITTENDEN DAVIESS EDMONSON GRAVES GRAYSON HANCOCK HOPKINS LIVINGSTON LOGAN LYON MCCRACKEN MCLEAN MARSHALL MONROE MUHLENBERG OHIO SIMPSON Read more

WW 0516 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE MDH TO 35 WSW EVV TO 25 WSW OWB TO 5 S OWB TO 45 W SDF TO 35 W SDF. ..SQUITIERI..07/27/26 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...LSX...IND...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC059-069-087-127-151-165-199-270140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GALLATIN HARDIN JOHNSON MASSAC POPE SALINE WILLIAMSON KYC003-009-027-031-033-035-047-055-059-061-083-085-091-107-139- 141-143-145-149-157-171-177-183-213-219-221-225-227-233- 270140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BARREN BRECKINRIDGE BUTLER CALDWELL CALLOWAY CHRISTIAN CRITTENDEN DAVIESS EDMONSON GRAVES GRAYSON HANCOCK HOPKINS LIVINGSTON LOGAN LYON MCCRACKEN MCLEAN MARSHALL MONROE MUHLENBERG OHIO SIMPSON Read more

WW 516 SEVERE TSTM IL IN KY 262210Z - 270500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 516 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 510 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Southwest Indiana Western into Central Kentucky * Effective this Sunday afternoon from 510 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to continue to develop and intensify through the early and mid evening. A couple of the stronger storms will probably acquire supercell structure and pose a risk for large hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado through the early evening. As additional storms develop and outflow becomes more prevalent, strong to severe gusts (55 to 70 mph) capable of wind damage will become the primary severe hazard towards the mid to late evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northeast of Salem IL to 30 miles southwest of Bowling Green KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 33025. ...Smith Read more

MD 1748 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 516... FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 1748 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Areas affected...portions of far southern Illinois...extreme southwestern Indiana...and western Kentucky Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 516... Valid 262333Z - 270000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 516 continues. SUMMARY...A cluster of damaging gusts may develop over the next hour or so. DISCUSSION...Multicells/transient supercells have merged over southeastern IL into extreme southwestern IN and western KY over the past hour. These storms have become outflow dominant, with a maturing and progressive cold pool propagating southeast in tandem with the mean wind. If these storms can maintain their current intensity over the next couple of hours, a localized but dense swath of potential damaging winds may occur, including a few embedded severe gusts. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 38408876 38528874 38608867 38628857 38488803 38068699 36938611 36818612 36718623 36718675 36678731 36758757 37358815 38178869 38408876 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1747 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NE INTO SOUTHEAST SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1747 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0516 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Areas affected...Parts of western/central NE into southeast SD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 262216Z - 270015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Severe storms may develop into early evening. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Cumulus is gradually increasing this afternoon from west-central NE into southeast SD, in the vicinity of a surface trough. Temperatures have warmed well above 100 F near the trough, with rich low-level moisture and steep lapse rates supporting MLCAPE of around 2000 J/kg from west-central NE to over 4000 J/kg into southeast SD, per recent objective mesoanalyses. Veering wind profiles with modest northwesterly mid/upper-level flow are resulting in effective shear of 30-40 kt, conditionally favorable for organized convection. With generally weak large-scale ascent across the region, timing and coverage of storm development remains somewhat uncertain. However, at least isolated severe-storm development is expected by early evening, given the very favorable thermodynamic environment and presence of a surface boundary. Severe gusts of 60-80 mph appear to be the most likely hazard within the steep low-level lapse rate environment, though if a supercell or two can evolve with time, then an isolated hail threat will also be possible. Watch issuance is possible by early evening in order to address these threats. ..Dean/Smith.. 07/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 40840091 40890144 41060169 41350184 41920123 42510027 42989983 43349958 44209912 44599889 44549843 44419813 44079741 43619693 43079706 42519746 41999815 41389927 41050001 40930040 40840091 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1746 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...FAR NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 1746 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Illinois into far southwestern Indiana...western Kentucky...far northern middle Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 262148Z - 262315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing, with supercells likely to mature in the next couple of hours. Severe wind/hail and at least a few tornadoes are possible. A WW issuance may be needed soon dependent on storm scale trends. DISCUSSION...Multiple storms are are intensifying rapidly along a differential heating boundary across southeastern IL into far southwestern IN. These storms are already showing echo tops approaching 55 kft and possible supercell structure. These storms are intensifying amid an environment that is highly favorable for severe storms (e.g. 6000+ J/kg MLCAPE and 40 kts of effective bulk shear per 21Z mesoanalysis). Furthermore, the VWX and ILX VADs depict around 200 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH, which is more than sufficient for persistent rotating storms given the aforementioned buoyancy/deep-shear parameter space. The current thinking is that any storms that become sustained, or intensify further, will become supercells capable of producing at least some severe hail/wind. More so, storms traversing the baroclinic boundary may ingest locally higher SRH to support a brief and localized tornado threat. A WW issuance may be needed soon to address the severe threat. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 07/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 39578902 37868665 37178643 36808649 36458688 36418716 36728762 37828862 38218894 38628924 39208946 39578902 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0516 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0516 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more