Storm Prediction Center

MD 1017 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 284... FOR PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1017 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Areas affected...portions of the Ozarks into central Arkansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 284... Valid 072058Z - 072230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 284 continues. SUMMARY...A couple of tornadoes and isolated damaging wind gusts remain possible across Tornado Watch 284, with this severe potential possibly extending farther south into central Arkansas. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms remain ongoing from central Missouri southward into central/southern Arkansas ahead of a mid-level MCV analyzed over northeastern Oklahoma. Several areas of transient, weak rotation have been noted with marginal supercell structures over the past 1-2 hours, with a recent report of a brief tornado in Newton County, Arkansas. While mid-level flow has weakened some since 19z (per the SGF VAD profile), backed surface winds across central/southern Missouri are maintaining 75-100 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. Coupled with modest effective shear around 30 kts (per latest objective analysis), this will continue to support the potential for marginal supercells and a couple of tornadoes across Tornado Watch 284 for at least another 1-2 hours. Farther south into central Arkansas, modestly weaker low-level shear and more veered surface winds should yield somewhat reduced tornado potential; although, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. High PWAT content (2+ inches) continues to promote a risk for localized damaging downburst winds. ..Chalmers.. 06/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 34449347 35019350 35299369 35469399 35679438 35949455 36309466 36899472 37389468 37779449 38009409 38119343 38059309 37669260 37269229 36659208 35859213 34869226 34549239 34299266 34249303 34249334 34449347 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 284 TORNADO AR MO 071930Z - 080000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 284 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 230 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northwest Arkansas Southwest Missouri * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...A few supercells will probably continue to mature across the Watch area ahead of a weak mid-level disturbance approaching the Ozarks. A couple of brief tornadoes are possible with the stronger, more persistent cells through the late afternoon and into the early evening. Isolated damaging wind gusts are also possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north of Springfield MO to 30 miles south of Harrison AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 20020. ...Smith Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough over the northwestern CONUS on Day 3/Tuesday translates eastward towards the Great Lakes by Friday. Dry westerly flow will gradually subside as the week progresses as the trough pushes eastward, with a similarly declining scale of fire weather concerns across the Intermountain West and Southwest. At the surface, an advancing cold front will bring some relief to the Interior West midweek, but a dry, post-frontal environment could present a fire weather threat to Sacramento and Central Valleys in CA on Day 4/Wednesday. A resurgence in subtropical moisture could emerge late next week across the Southwest as southerly flow east of a diffuse upper low in the Pacific, aids in northward moisture transport of moisture from Baja CA. ...Day 3-6/Tuesday-Friday - Intermountain West and Southwest... The upper trough over the Northwest and associated stronger mid-level flow should support higher surface southwesterly wind gusts within a dry, well mixed boundary layer on Day 3/Tuesday across much portions of the Southwest, Four Corners, northeastward into the central High Plains. Southwest winds of 15-20 mph with higher gusts along with sub 10% RH values are most likely across northern AZ/southern UT eastward into the Four Corners areas where 70% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions remain. As the upper trough slides into the Northern Plains by Day 4/Wednesday, a 60-70 knot mid-level jet atop dry post-frontal environment will continue to promote strong surface winds of up to 40 mph across southern WY where 40% critical probabilities have been extended. Fire weather concerns remain but shrink for the Four Corners and adjacent areas for Days 5-6/Thursday-Friday in the wake of the departing upper trough. Reintroduction of mid/upper level Pacific moisture from an upper low southwest of CA could bring a dry thunderstorm threat back into the Southwest as early as Friday. However, low predictability precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ...Day 4/Wednesday - Sacramento alley... Dry northerly flow behind a cold front across northern CA will present a fire weather concern for portions and the Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills where receptive fuels support fire spread. Sustained north winds of 10-20 mph and relative humidity likely 15% or below Wednesday afternoon prompted introduction of 40% critical probabilities for the area. The fuelscape remains complex, with primarily cured/dry grasses supporting fire spread in lower elevations. ..Williams.. 06/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough over the northwestern CONUS on Day 3/Tuesday translates eastward towards the Great Lakes by Friday. Dry westerly flow will gradually subside as the week progresses as the trough pushes eastward, with a similarly declining scale of fire weather concerns across the Intermountain West and Southwest. At the surface, an advancing cold front will bring some relief to the Interior West midweek, but a dry, post-frontal environment could present a fire weather threat to Sacramento and Central Valleys in CA on Day 4/Wednesday. A resurgence in subtropical moisture could emerge late next week across the Southwest as southerly flow east of a diffuse upper low in the Pacific, aids in northward moisture transport of moisture from Baja CA. ...Day 3-6/Tuesday-Friday - Intermountain West and Southwest... The upper trough over the Northwest and associated stronger mid-level flow should support higher surface southwesterly wind gusts within a dry, well mixed boundary layer on Day 3/Tuesday across much portions of the Southwest, Four Corners, northeastward into the central High Plains. Southwest winds of 15-20 mph with higher gusts along with sub 10% RH values are most likely across northern AZ/southern UT eastward into the Four Corners areas where 70% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions remain. As the upper trough slides into the Northern Plains by Day 4/Wednesday, a 60-70 knot mid-level jet atop dry post-frontal environment will continue to promote strong surface winds of up to 40 mph across southern WY where 40% critical probabilities have been extended. Fire weather concerns remain but shrink for the Four Corners and adjacent areas for Days 5-6/Thursday-Friday in the wake of the departing upper trough. Reintroduction of mid/upper level Pacific moisture from an upper low southwest of CA could bring a dry thunderstorm threat back into the Southwest as early as Friday. However, low predictability precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ...Day 4/Wednesday - Sacramento alley... Dry northerly flow behind a cold front across northern CA will present a fire weather concern for portions and the Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills where receptive fuels support fire spread. Sustained north winds of 10-20 mph and relative humidity likely 15% or below Wednesday afternoon prompted introduction of 40% critical probabilities for the area. The fuelscape remains complex, with primarily cured/dry grasses supporting fire spread in lower elevations. ..Williams.. 06/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough over the northwestern CONUS on Day 3/Tuesday translates eastward towards the Great Lakes by Friday. Dry westerly flow will gradually subside as the week progresses as the trough pushes eastward, with a similarly declining scale of fire weather concerns across the Intermountain West and Southwest. At the surface, an advancing cold front will bring some relief to the Interior West midweek, but a dry, post-frontal environment could present a fire weather threat to Sacramento and Central Valleys in CA on Day 4/Wednesday. A resurgence in subtropical moisture could emerge late next week across the Southwest as southerly flow east of a diffuse upper low in the Pacific, aids in northward moisture transport of moisture from Baja CA. ...Day 3-6/Tuesday-Friday - Intermountain West and Southwest... The upper trough over the Northwest and associated stronger mid-level flow should support higher surface southwesterly wind gusts within a dry, well mixed boundary layer on Day 3/Tuesday across much portions of the Southwest, Four Corners, northeastward into the central High Plains. Southwest winds of 15-20 mph with higher gusts along with sub 10% RH values are most likely across northern AZ/southern UT eastward into the Four Corners areas where 70% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions remain. As the upper trough slides into the Northern Plains by Day 4/Wednesday, a 60-70 knot mid-level jet atop dry post-frontal environment will continue to promote strong surface winds of up to 40 mph across southern WY where 40% critical probabilities have been extended. Fire weather concerns remain but shrink for the Four Corners and adjacent areas for Days 5-6/Thursday-Friday in the wake of the departing upper trough. Reintroduction of mid/upper level Pacific moisture from an upper low southwest of CA could bring a dry thunderstorm threat back into the Southwest as early as Friday. However, low predictability precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ...Day 4/Wednesday - Sacramento alley... Dry northerly flow behind a cold front across northern CA will present a fire weather concern for portions and the Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills where receptive fuels support fire spread. Sustained north winds of 10-20 mph and relative humidity likely 15% or below Wednesday afternoon prompted introduction of 40% critical probabilities for the area. The fuelscape remains complex, with primarily cured/dry grasses supporting fire spread in lower elevations. ..Williams.. 06/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough over the northwestern CONUS on Day 3/Tuesday translates eastward towards the Great Lakes by Friday. Dry westerly flow will gradually subside as the week progresses as the trough pushes eastward, with a similarly declining scale of fire weather concerns across the Intermountain West and Southwest. At the surface, an advancing cold front will bring some relief to the Interior West midweek, but a dry, post-frontal environment could present a fire weather threat to Sacramento and Central Valleys in CA on Day 4/Wednesday. A resurgence in subtropical moisture could emerge late next week across the Southwest as southerly flow east of a diffuse upper low in the Pacific, aids in northward moisture transport of moisture from Baja CA. ...Day 3-6/Tuesday-Friday - Intermountain West and Southwest... The upper trough over the Northwest and associated stronger mid-level flow should support higher surface southwesterly wind gusts within a dry, well mixed boundary layer on Day 3/Tuesday across much portions of the Southwest, Four Corners, northeastward into the central High Plains. Southwest winds of 15-20 mph with higher gusts along with sub 10% RH values are most likely across northern AZ/southern UT eastward into the Four Corners areas where 70% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions remain. As the upper trough slides into the Northern Plains by Day 4/Wednesday, a 60-70 knot mid-level jet atop dry post-frontal environment will continue to promote strong surface winds of up to 40 mph across southern WY where 40% critical probabilities have been extended. Fire weather concerns remain but shrink for the Four Corners and adjacent areas for Days 5-6/Thursday-Friday in the wake of the departing upper trough. Reintroduction of mid/upper level Pacific moisture from an upper low southwest of CA could bring a dry thunderstorm threat back into the Southwest as early as Friday. However, low predictability precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ...Day 4/Wednesday - Sacramento alley... Dry northerly flow behind a cold front across northern CA will present a fire weather concern for portions and the Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills where receptive fuels support fire spread. Sustained north winds of 10-20 mph and relative humidity likely 15% or below Wednesday afternoon prompted introduction of 40% critical probabilities for the area. The fuelscape remains complex, with primarily cured/dry grasses supporting fire spread in lower elevations. ..Williams.. 06/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough over the northwestern CONUS on Day 3/Tuesday translates eastward towards the Great Lakes by Friday. Dry westerly flow will gradually subside as the week progresses as the trough pushes eastward, with a similarly declining scale of fire weather concerns across the Intermountain West and Southwest. At the surface, an advancing cold front will bring some relief to the Interior West midweek, but a dry, post-frontal environment could present a fire weather threat to Sacramento and Central Valleys in CA on Day 4/Wednesday. A resurgence in subtropical moisture could emerge late next week across the Southwest as southerly flow east of a diffuse upper low in the Pacific, aids in northward moisture transport of moisture from Baja CA. ...Day 3-6/Tuesday-Friday - Intermountain West and Southwest... The upper trough over the Northwest and associated stronger mid-level flow should support higher surface southwesterly wind gusts within a dry, well mixed boundary layer on Day 3/Tuesday across much portions of the Southwest, Four Corners, northeastward into the central High Plains. Southwest winds of 15-20 mph with higher gusts along with sub 10% RH values are most likely across northern AZ/southern UT eastward into the Four Corners areas where 70% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions remain. As the upper trough slides into the Northern Plains by Day 4/Wednesday, a 60-70 knot mid-level jet atop dry post-frontal environment will continue to promote strong surface winds of up to 40 mph across southern WY where 40% critical probabilities have been extended. Fire weather concerns remain but shrink for the Four Corners and adjacent areas for Days 5-6/Thursday-Friday in the wake of the departing upper trough. Reintroduction of mid/upper level Pacific moisture from an upper low southwest of CA could bring a dry thunderstorm threat back into the Southwest as early as Friday. However, low predictability precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ...Day 4/Wednesday - Sacramento alley... Dry northerly flow behind a cold front across northern CA will present a fire weather concern for portions and the Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills where receptive fuels support fire spread. Sustained north winds of 10-20 mph and relative humidity likely 15% or below Wednesday afternoon prompted introduction of 40% critical probabilities for the area. The fuelscape remains complex, with primarily cured/dry grasses supporting fire spread in lower elevations. ..Williams.. 06/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1016 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...WESTERN DAKOTAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1016 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Areas affected...northeastern Wyoming...southeastern Montana...western Dakotas Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 071950Z - 072145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A corridor of significant wind risk (80-100 mph) will emerge into afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...Convection has been building across the Big Horn Mountains in northern Wyoming over the last 1-2 hours, with MLCIN slowly eroding. Consensus among hi-res guidance continues to be that this region will the origin of initial clustered thunderstorm development over the next couple of hours. Downstream ahead of a surface front in eastern Montana into the western Dakotas, strong surface heating and dew points in the low to mid 60s has yielded a gradient of moderate to strong MLCAPE around 1000-2500 J/kg. 18z observed soundings from Rapid City, SD and Bismark, ND sampled steep low to mid-level lapse rates around 7-8.5 C/km. There is good agreement and run to run consistency in hi-res guidance indicating convection will grow upscale out of Wyoming/Montana into an intense MCS into southeastern Montana and the western Dakotas this evening. Early WoFS runs are also coming into alignment with trends indicating a swath of severe to intense wind across this region as well. Initially, supercell clusters will be capable of large to very large hail before growing upscale and eventual evolution to primarily a wind threat. The aforementioned thermodynamic environment in combination with strong deep layer shear will promote downstream maintenance of this MCS into the late evening. A watch will be needed soon to cover this potential. ..Thornton/Smith.. 06/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW... LAT...LON 43550431 43610596 44090684 44830742 45560751 46120706 46740535 48030414 49110371 49230209 49070057 48420056 47720065 46550092 45770117 45050199 44430258 43840355 43550431 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...85-100 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0420 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2026 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the northern Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Western and Central North Dakota Eastern Montana Western South Dakota * HAZARDS... Widespread hurricane-force damaging winds A couple tornadoes Isolated large hail up to baseball size * SUMMARY... A bow echo thunderstorm complex with widespread damaging winds and significant severe gusts up to 100 mph appear likely over parts of the northern Plains this afternoon and evening. Scattered large hail and isolated tornadoes are also possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Gleason.. 06/07/2026 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0420 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2026 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the northern Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Western and Central North Dakota Eastern Montana Western South Dakota * HAZARDS... Widespread hurricane-force damaging winds A couple tornadoes Isolated large hail up to baseball size * SUMMARY... A bow echo thunderstorm complex with widespread damaging winds and significant severe gusts up to 100 mph appear likely over parts of the northern Plains this afternoon and evening. Scattered large hail and isolated tornadoes are also possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Gleason.. 06/07/2026 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0420 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2026 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the northern Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Western and Central North Dakota Eastern Montana Western South Dakota * HAZARDS... Widespread hurricane-force damaging winds A couple tornadoes Isolated large hail up to baseball size * SUMMARY... A bow echo thunderstorm complex with widespread damaging winds and significant severe gusts up to 100 mph appear likely over parts of the northern Plains this afternoon and evening. Scattered large hail and isolated tornadoes are also possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Gleason.. 06/07/2026 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0420 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2026 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the northern Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Western and Central North Dakota Eastern Montana Western South Dakota * HAZARDS... Widespread hurricane-force damaging winds A couple tornadoes Isolated large hail up to baseball size * SUMMARY... A bow echo thunderstorm complex with widespread damaging winds and significant severe gusts up to 100 mph appear likely over parts of the northern Plains this afternoon and evening. Scattered large hail and isolated tornadoes are also possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Gleason.. 06/07/2026 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0420 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2026 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the northern Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Western and Central North Dakota Eastern Montana Western South Dakota * HAZARDS... Widespread hurricane-force damaging winds A couple tornadoes Isolated large hail up to baseball size * SUMMARY... A bow echo thunderstorm complex with widespread damaging winds and significant severe gusts up to 100 mph appear likely over parts of the northern Plains this afternoon and evening. Scattered large hail and isolated tornadoes are also possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Gleason.. 06/07/2026 Read more

WW 0285 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0285 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0285 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0285 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0285 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0285 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 285 SEVERE TSTM MT ND SD WY 072055Z - 080400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 285 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeastern and Eastern Montana Western and Central North Dakota Western and Northwestern South Dakota Northeastern Wyoming * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 1000 PM MDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 100 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and intensify across western portions of the Watch. An initial linear cluster of severe thunderstorms is forecast to evolve into a bow echo as it matures and moves into the western Dakotas this evening. A corresponding intensification of the severe-wind threat is expected with widespread severe gusts expected and 80 to 100 mph gusts likely in localized swaths. Large to very large hail may also occur with storms that can develop ahead of the squall line. A tornado is possible with the squall line. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 125 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles north of Sheridan WY to 55 miles north northeast of Bismarck ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 284... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 85 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22050. ...Smith Read more

WW 0284 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 284 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..CHALMERS..06/07/26 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 284 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-009-015-089-101-129-072140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BOONE CARROLL MARION NEWTON SEARCY MOC009-039-043-057-059-077-085-109-119-167-185-209-213-225- 072140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CEDAR CHRISTIAN DADE DALLAS GREENE HICKORY LAWRENCE MCDONALD POLK ST. CLAIR STONE TANEY WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1015 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 1015 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 071859Z - 072100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms may pose a localized risk for strong/damaging wind gusts and perhaps small hail this afternoon. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis depicts a weak cold front in place across portions of Virginia, extending from south of Roanoke/Blacksburg into southern Delaware/Maryland. Temperatures have warmed into the low-90s ahead of this front, with 60s F dewpoints noted across southeastern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina. Amid continued insolation, expectation is for widely scattered thunderstorms to develop over the next couple of hours along/near this front across portions of central/southeastern Virginia, with storms gradually evolving southeastward through the early evening. 500 to locally 1500 J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating and around 25-30 kts of effective shear along the southern periphery of a mid-level trough may promote occasional strong thunderstorms, with isolated damaging wind gusts possible. Warm mid-level temperatures will temper overall convective intensity, but an instance or two of small hail could also accompany the strongest updrafts. Watch issuance is not expected owing to the limited coverage/magnitude of the severe threat. ..Chalmers/Smith.. 06/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 36377580 36277612 36247691 36287734 36357769 36547819 36707854 36887880 37087908 37467941 37857947 38347939 38487907 38427845 38227760 38097690 37967599 37867534 37727542 37317567 36987586 36747583 36497571 36377580 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA,... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A bow echo with 60-100 mph gusts appears likely over the northern High Plains into the Dakotas this afternoon, with a few instances of severe hail and isolated tornadoes also possible. A couple of tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts are still possible across the Ozarks region. ...20Z Update... A Category 4/Moderate Risk was introduced to portions of the northern High Plains. Confidence is increasing in a well-defined cold-pool-driven bow echo MCS developing across portions of the northern High Plains later this afternoon. A potentially dense swath of 60-100 mph gusts appears likely, and a derecho may occur. Current observations depict a near stationary surface boundary across far southeastern MT northeastward into western ND along an elongated surface trough. High-resolution deterministic and ensemble guidance (including HREF, REFS, and some of the latest WoFS runs) all depict a classic bow echo MCS traversing this surface boundary, accompanied by a widespread severe wind swath and scattered 75+ mph gusts. The MCS would benefit from localized vorticity along this boundary, which in turn could support book-end vortices and the subsequent development and sustenance of a rear-inflow jet, lending plausibility to the guidance consensus. Latest mesoanalysis also shows continued eroding MLCINH and 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE in place. Low- to mid-level lapse rates are already exceeding 8 C/km in some spots, coinciding with 50-60 kts of sfc-8 km bulk shear oriented normal to the anticipated bow echo leading line, which is favorable for derecho development. Alternatively, multiple severe-wind producing multicellular clusters may occur, which would support higher coverage of severe winds (with gusts occasionally exceeding 75 mph). Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to thunder and severe probabilities to reflect the latest observations. ..Squitieri.. 06/07/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026/ ...MT/WY/Dakotas... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a strong upper trough over the northwestern CONUS and it is forecast to pivot eastward through the northern High Plains through tonight. Surface mesoanalysis placed a low near the MT/ND/SD border with a frontal zone draped southwest to northeast from northeastern WY into far western ND. Cyclogenesis and strong heating/moistening of the boundary layer will favor storm development by mid afternoon in the vicinity of the Big Horns. Relatively steep low-level lapse rates on the immediate cool side of the frontal zone and moderate CAPE values will support a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts once storms begin to mature. A linear cluster is expected to evolve during the late afternoon into potentially a bow echo during the early evening with the severe-wind risk notably increasing and becoming more widespread. Have increased the intensity highlight from southeast MT into western portions of ND where it seems increasingly probable a swath of intense gusts ---possibly a bow echo--- is progged by a diverse array of different model cores/runs this morning. This model signal appears reasonable given the co-location of surface features, lapse rates, and upper-level support. It is within this mesoscale corridor that localized peak gusts may range 85-100 mph. Considered an upgrade to Moderate Risk but will defer to the 20 UTC outlook for additional model run-to-run continuity and confidence in mesoscale environmental features. This activity will sweep northeastward during the evening with a gradual lessening of the wind/hail hazard towards the early overnight as it moves east into the eastern half of the Dakotas late. ...Ozarks... A weak trough/low over the central US with embedded disturbances from OK into IA continues to drift northeastward late this morning. An associated band of 30-40 knot southwesterly mid-level winds and deep moisture will lie across the Ozark plateau this afternoon. The 12 UTC Springfield, MO raob sampled this belt of stronger flow with 80-kt at 200 mb. Heating of a very moist airmass with some minor enlargement of low-level hodographs may result a few weak supercells developing coincident with peak heating. A couple of brief tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts are possible with this activity. ...Eastern VA/NC... A weak surface cold front is sagging southward across central VA this morning. A combination of strong heating and frontal forcing will lead to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across southeast VA and northeast NC. The strongest of these cells could produce gusty winds. Read more