Storm Prediction Center

WW 0516 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0516 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 516 SEVERE TSTM IL IN KY 262210Z - 270500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 516 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 510 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Southwest Indiana Western into Central Kentucky * Effective this Sunday afternoon from 510 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to continue to develop and intensify through the early and mid evening. A couple of the stronger storms will probably acquire supercell structure and pose a risk for large hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado through the early evening. As additional storms develop and outflow becomes more prevalent, strong to severe gusts (55 to 70 mph) capable of wind damage will become the primary severe hazard towards the mid to late evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northeast of Salem IL to 30 miles southwest of Bowling Green KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 33025. ...Smith Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Jul 26 21:51:02 UTC 2026.

MD 1743 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1743 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Areas affected...Eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 262024Z - 262230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are likely across far eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina through early evening, and a few damaging gusts appear possible. However, the overall severe threat should remain limited. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, GOES and reflectivity imagery have shown gradually deepening convective showers across far eastern GA and southern SC in proximity to a subtle surface low and along the flanks of a cold pool established by prior convection to the north of the Charleston, SC area. Weak low-level convergence coupled with further diurnal heating should promote continued, but slow, deepening/intensification of convection through early evening. In proximity to this activity, temperatures in the 90s are supporting ~20 F dewpoint depressions that suggest boundary-layer depth is approaching 1.5 to 2 km. These low-level thermodynamic conditions are favorable for strong downbursts capable of producing damaging gusts (maximum wind speeds most likely of 40-60 mph). Given the number of incipient convective cells across the region, at least a couple instances of damaging winds appear possible. However, modest deep-layer wind shear and weak broad-scale ascent across the region should modulate overall convective intensity and longevity, precluding the need for a watch. ..Moore/Leitman.. 07/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC... LAT...LON 33698128 33558084 33218030 32778013 32538013 31808099 31308130 31258164 31418195 31708205 32388213 33098207 33338198 33638161 33698128 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 1744 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN WYOMING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1744 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Areas affected...northern Wyoming into far southwest South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 262026Z - 262200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts are possible with storms across northern Wyoming and far southwest South Dakota this afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...Storms have developed off the higher terrain of the Tetons, Big Horns, and Black Hills this afternoon. Additional storms are expected within these zones this afternoon. The environment is not that unstable (~250 J/kg MLCAPE per SPC HRRR-Based Mesoanalysis), but a very deeply mixed environment (per 18Z RIW and UNR VWP) will support some wind threat. In addition, 50+ knots of flow above 300mb should provide ample shear for some storm organization, despite the weak instability. Therefore, isolated severe wind gusts are possible this afternoon/evening, but no watch is expected given the weak instability. ..Bentley/Leitman.. 07/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 44690961 45010611 44520327 43170347 43140524 43460861 43660928 44070978 44690961 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 1745 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1745 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Areas affected...eastern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 262054Z - 262230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few supercells are possible this afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...A few weak cells have been moving slowly eastward across northern Iowa this morning in vicinity of the a weak MCV moving across the area. Within the last 20 minutes, convective intensity has started to increase somewhat. Given the weak forcing, it is is not clear whether these storms will mature, but if they do, 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE and 45 to 50 knots of effective shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. ..Bentley/Leitman.. 07/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 42459354 43379386 43259268 43019136 41079120 40599170 40549245 41579309 42459354 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Upper-level troughing is forecast across portions of the Pacific Northwest through much of the workweek, with the main upper-level low remaining offshore. Meanwhile, periodic mid-level shortwaves will rotate through the base of the trough and over the area in the southwest flow aloft. The strongest and most well-defined shortwave is forecast Day 5/Thursday. Upper-level ridging across the southern High Plains Day 3/Tuesday is expected to gradually build westward into next weekend. Thereafter, longer-range ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the aforementioned upper-level low may move onshore next weekend, though timing details remain uncertain. ...Northwestern US... Weaker flow aloft will tend to limit the fire weather threat across the Pacific Northwest through much of the week. Though, locally elevated fire weather conditions appear likely most days due to lingering dry and breezy conditions amidst receptive fuels. While, thunderstorm chances may return Day 5/Thursday as the aforementioned shortwave trough impinges on the area, confidence in 10% coverage remains a bit too low to introduce probabilities at this time. Nevertheless, this will be monitored considering the forecast sensitivities with multiple large fires ongoing across the area. Longer range guidance continues to suggest dry and breezy conditions may return to the Northwest sometime next weekend as the offshore trough moves inland. At this time, confidence remains too low to introduce Critical probabilities. ...Southern High Plains... Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are likely across portions of the southern High Plains through much of the workweek. While near elevated fire weather conditions appear likely, recent fuel guidance suggests the fuelscape remains mostly mixed and winds are forecast to generally remain at or below elevated thresholds. Nevertheless, fuels are expected to continue drying due to the multiple days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions, which may necessitate fire weather highlights in later forecasts. ..Elliott.. 07/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Upper-level troughing is forecast across portions of the Pacific Northwest through much of the workweek, with the main upper-level low remaining offshore. Meanwhile, periodic mid-level shortwaves will rotate through the base of the trough and over the area in the southwest flow aloft. The strongest and most well-defined shortwave is forecast Day 5/Thursday. Upper-level ridging across the southern High Plains Day 3/Tuesday is expected to gradually build westward into next weekend. Thereafter, longer-range ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the aforementioned upper-level low may move onshore next weekend, though timing details remain uncertain. ...Northwestern US... Weaker flow aloft will tend to limit the fire weather threat across the Pacific Northwest through much of the week. Though, locally elevated fire weather conditions appear likely most days due to lingering dry and breezy conditions amidst receptive fuels. While, thunderstorm chances may return Day 5/Thursday as the aforementioned shortwave trough impinges on the area, confidence in 10% coverage remains a bit too low to introduce probabilities at this time. Nevertheless, this will be monitored considering the forecast sensitivities with multiple large fires ongoing across the area. Longer range guidance continues to suggest dry and breezy conditions may return to the Northwest sometime next weekend as the offshore trough moves inland. At this time, confidence remains too low to introduce Critical probabilities. ...Southern High Plains... Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are likely across portions of the southern High Plains through much of the workweek. While near elevated fire weather conditions appear likely, recent fuel guidance suggests the fuelscape remains mostly mixed and winds are forecast to generally remain at or below elevated thresholds. Nevertheless, fuels are expected to continue drying due to the multiple days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions, which may necessitate fire weather highlights in later forecasts. ..Elliott.. 07/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Upper-level troughing is forecast across portions of the Pacific Northwest through much of the workweek, with the main upper-level low remaining offshore. Meanwhile, periodic mid-level shortwaves will rotate through the base of the trough and over the area in the southwest flow aloft. The strongest and most well-defined shortwave is forecast Day 5/Thursday. Upper-level ridging across the southern High Plains Day 3/Tuesday is expected to gradually build westward into next weekend. Thereafter, longer-range ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the aforementioned upper-level low may move onshore next weekend, though timing details remain uncertain. ...Northwestern US... Weaker flow aloft will tend to limit the fire weather threat across the Pacific Northwest through much of the week. Though, locally elevated fire weather conditions appear likely most days due to lingering dry and breezy conditions amidst receptive fuels. While, thunderstorm chances may return Day 5/Thursday as the aforementioned shortwave trough impinges on the area, confidence in 10% coverage remains a bit too low to introduce probabilities at this time. Nevertheless, this will be monitored considering the forecast sensitivities with multiple large fires ongoing across the area. Longer range guidance continues to suggest dry and breezy conditions may return to the Northwest sometime next weekend as the offshore trough moves inland. At this time, confidence remains too low to introduce Critical probabilities. ...Southern High Plains... Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are likely across portions of the southern High Plains through much of the workweek. While near elevated fire weather conditions appear likely, recent fuel guidance suggests the fuelscape remains mostly mixed and winds are forecast to generally remain at or below elevated thresholds. Nevertheless, fuels are expected to continue drying due to the multiple days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions, which may necessitate fire weather highlights in later forecasts. ..Elliott.. 07/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Upper-level troughing is forecast across portions of the Pacific Northwest through much of the workweek, with the main upper-level low remaining offshore. Meanwhile, periodic mid-level shortwaves will rotate through the base of the trough and over the area in the southwest flow aloft. The strongest and most well-defined shortwave is forecast Day 5/Thursday. Upper-level ridging across the southern High Plains Day 3/Tuesday is expected to gradually build westward into next weekend. Thereafter, longer-range ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the aforementioned upper-level low may move onshore next weekend, though timing details remain uncertain. ...Northwestern US... Weaker flow aloft will tend to limit the fire weather threat across the Pacific Northwest through much of the week. Though, locally elevated fire weather conditions appear likely most days due to lingering dry and breezy conditions amidst receptive fuels. While, thunderstorm chances may return Day 5/Thursday as the aforementioned shortwave trough impinges on the area, confidence in 10% coverage remains a bit too low to introduce probabilities at this time. Nevertheless, this will be monitored considering the forecast sensitivities with multiple large fires ongoing across the area. Longer range guidance continues to suggest dry and breezy conditions may return to the Northwest sometime next weekend as the offshore trough moves inland. At this time, confidence remains too low to introduce Critical probabilities. ...Southern High Plains... Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are likely across portions of the southern High Plains through much of the workweek. While near elevated fire weather conditions appear likely, recent fuel guidance suggests the fuelscape remains mostly mixed and winds are forecast to generally remain at or below elevated thresholds. Nevertheless, fuels are expected to continue drying due to the multiple days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions, which may necessitate fire weather highlights in later forecasts. ..Elliott.. 07/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Upper-level troughing is forecast across portions of the Pacific Northwest through much of the workweek, with the main upper-level low remaining offshore. Meanwhile, periodic mid-level shortwaves will rotate through the base of the trough and over the area in the southwest flow aloft. The strongest and most well-defined shortwave is forecast Day 5/Thursday. Upper-level ridging across the southern High Plains Day 3/Tuesday is expected to gradually build westward into next weekend. Thereafter, longer-range ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the aforementioned upper-level low may move onshore next weekend, though timing details remain uncertain. ...Northwestern US... Weaker flow aloft will tend to limit the fire weather threat across the Pacific Northwest through much of the week. Though, locally elevated fire weather conditions appear likely most days due to lingering dry and breezy conditions amidst receptive fuels. While, thunderstorm chances may return Day 5/Thursday as the aforementioned shortwave trough impinges on the area, confidence in 10% coverage remains a bit too low to introduce probabilities at this time. Nevertheless, this will be monitored considering the forecast sensitivities with multiple large fires ongoing across the area. Longer range guidance continues to suggest dry and breezy conditions may return to the Northwest sometime next weekend as the offshore trough moves inland. At this time, confidence remains too low to introduce Critical probabilities. ...Southern High Plains... Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are likely across portions of the southern High Plains through much of the workweek. While near elevated fire weather conditions appear likely, recent fuel guidance suggests the fuelscape remains mostly mixed and winds are forecast to generally remain at or below elevated thresholds. Nevertheless, fuels are expected to continue drying due to the multiple days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions, which may necessitate fire weather highlights in later forecasts. ..Elliott.. 07/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1742 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR ILLINOIS AND PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 1742 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Areas affected...Illinois and portions of far southwest Indiana and western Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 261852Z - 262115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated convection is developing within a very unstable air mass over southern IL, but it is unclear when a more pronounced severe threat will emerge. Trends are being monitored, and watch issuance will likely be needed by late afternoon, though timing remains uncertain. DISCUSSION...An isolated convective cell has recently developed across south-central IL within a highly unstable air mass (characterized by MLCAPE values of 4500-5000 J/kg based on the recent 18 UTC DVN sounding). However, this cell is spatially displaced from more focused low-level convergence/forcing for ascent along a differential heating axis analyzed from western KY/southwest IN into central and northern IL. Because of this (and based on reflectivity trends over the past 20 minutes), it appears unlikely that this cell will pose much of a severe threat. Recent iterations of the RRFS actually seem to be capturing convective trends well and depict this lone cell developing and decaying within the next hour or so before additional convection develops along the surface boundary and ahead of a subtle mid-level perturbation approaching from central IA during the 20-22 UTC period. Recent GOES imagery shows gradual cumulus growth along the boundary in southern IL as well as slow deepening of cumulus across southeast IA/northeast MO, which lends credibility to the recent RRFS solutions. Additional convection developing later this afternoon will likely fully realize the favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment (characterized by SCP values of 8-12) draped across central IL into the lower OH Valley. Guidance continues to depict relatively quick upscale growth into an organized MCS by early evening with an attendant threat for severe winds. Watch issuance will be needed this afternoon/evening, but exact timing will depend on when more widespread thunderstorm initiation becomes apparent. ..Moore/Leitman.. 07/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN... LAT...LON 37298772 37468862 37808921 39619054 40069075 40369065 40579034 40698988 40658934 40448890 40038844 39118771 38618735 37928681 37598670 37388682 37278713 37298772 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds (possibly 75+ mph), and tornado risk remain likely from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes southwestward into Nebraska, mainly late this afternoon and tonight. ...20Z Update Upper Midwest... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Severe storm development remains likely this afternoon and evening as a very warm air mass continues to destabilize. Weak, but sufficient, synoptic ascent (evident in visible imagery) should aid in removing inhibition by late this afternoon. Initial supercells developing over northeastern MN and far northern WI will pose an all-hazards risk, including locally severe wind gusts, very large hail, and a couple of tornadoes. An MCS should eventually develop and track south/southeast across WI and MI with a risk for damaging gusts and a brief tornado or two through tonight. ...NE... More isolated higher-based convection remains possible from central and eastern NE, into western IA, and southeast SD late this afternoon and evening. Very hot surface temperatures and moderate buoyancy will support a few stronger storms with damaging wind and isolated hail potential. Convective development appears most probable along a thermally induced surface pressure trough, from central NE northeastward late this afternoon. ...Mid MS Valley... A very unstable and weakly capped air mass is present along a diffuse differential heating zone from northwest IL, into northern TN. Current expectations are for one or more clusters of thunderstorms to develop along the boundary and ahead of a weak mid-level wave/MCV across IA/IL, before spreading south/southeastward into this evening. The extreme instability (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear should support organized clusters, and eventually an MCS, with damaging winds likely. A tornado or two is also possible with initial convection along the boundary owing to extreme buoyancy, or any embedded QLCS circulations with the expected MCS. See MCD#1742 for short-term information. Elsewhere, isolated damaging gusts remain possible with scattered thunderstorms over the northern Rockies and across the Mid Atlantic/Southeast. Weaker buoyancy/shear overlap suggests these occurrences will be more sporadic, with limited storm organization/longevity. See the prior discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 07/26/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026/ ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Initial supercell storms are expected to develop across northern MN/WI later this afternoon, aided by a favorably timed shortwave impulse rounding the Plains upper ridge. Another MCV/shortwave impulse located over the Dakotas at midday will also spread east/southeast across southern/central MN this afternoon. These features will provide support for one or more focused areas of thunderstorm development. Initial supercells will pose an all-hazards risk, including locally severe wind gusts, very large hail, and a couple of tornadoes. With time into the evening, initial supercells may grow into one or two small bowing MCSs. This storm mode transition will support an increased risk for intense damaging wind swaths this evening into tonight as convection spreads southeast along a strong instability/moisture gradient across WI and the Lake Michigan vicinity. ...Mid-Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Multiple areas of strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from near the MS River into IL/IN/KY/TN. Thunderstorm development may be aided by a weak shortwave impulse/MCV migrating southeast from IA at midday and into the Lower OH Valley this evening. Storms are expected to develop along a corridor of differential heating near/just east of the MS River where mostly clear skies this morning have already resulted in temperatures approaching 85-90 F, while scattered clouds further east will maintain somewhat lower high temperatures. Thunderstorm clusters this afternoon will pose a risk for severe/damaging wind gusts. Sufficient clustering may occur and some upscale development into a forward propagating bow may occur across the Lower Ohio Valley vicinity this evening, and wind probabilities have been increased to 30 percent for parts of southern IL/IN and western KY. This activity could be maintained southward during the overnight hours as far south as northern AL/GA given favorable instability and sufficiently strong northwesterly flow aloft. Damaging wind gusts could persist with this activity as it spreads south/southeast across TN into AL/GA toward early Monday morning. ...NE/SD/IA... A deeply mixed and hot boundary layer will develop this afternoon/early evening in the vicinity of a weak surface trough from NE into southeast SD/northwest IA. Very steep lapse rates aloft will foster 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Vertically veering wind profiles and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will provide 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes and a few organized cells/clusters may develop by late afternoon. Damaging wind gusts of 60-80 mph would be the main hazard with this activity. While temperatures are somewhat warm aloft, the strongest storms could produce sporadic large hail. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Southeast GA/Northern FL... Upper troughing will persist today across the East, though some enhancement to northwesterly flow aloft is expected. Relatively cool conditions, weak lapse rates, and the potential influence of smoke will temper destabilization across the Mid-Atlantic. Nevertheless, MLCAPE 1000 J/kg amid 25-35 kt of effective shear may support occasional organized storms capable of producing locally damaging gusts. Stronger heating/destabilization is expected farther south across the Carolinas into GA/FL. Deep-layer flow/shear will be somewhat weaker compared to farther north, but may still be sufficient for transient storm organization with sporadic locally damaging winds possible. ...Southeast MT/northern WY/Black Hills vicinity... High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon along the northern periphery of the upper ridge, with the greatest storm coverage expected across parts of northern Wyoming and southern Montana. Overall buoyancy is expected to remain weak, but inverted-v profiles will support a threat of strong to localized severe gusts as storms spread eastward toward the Black Hills before weakening into mid/late evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds (possibly 75+ mph), and tornado risk remain likely from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes southwestward into Nebraska, mainly late this afternoon and tonight. ...20Z Update Upper Midwest... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Severe storm development remains likely this afternoon and evening as a very warm air mass continues to destabilize. Weak, but sufficient, synoptic ascent (evident in visible imagery) should aid in removing inhibition by late this afternoon. Initial supercells developing over northeastern MN and far northern WI will pose an all-hazards risk, including locally severe wind gusts, very large hail, and a couple of tornadoes. An MCS should eventually develop and track south/southeast across WI and MI with a risk for damaging gusts and a brief tornado or two through tonight. ...NE... More isolated higher-based convection remains possible from central and eastern NE, into western IA, and southeast SD late this afternoon and evening. Very hot surface temperatures and moderate buoyancy will support a few stronger storms with damaging wind and isolated hail potential. Convective development appears most probable along a thermally induced surface pressure trough, from central NE northeastward late this afternoon. ...Mid MS Valley... A very unstable and weakly capped air mass is present along a diffuse differential heating zone from northwest IL, into northern TN. Current expectations are for one or more clusters of thunderstorms to develop along the boundary and ahead of a weak mid-level wave/MCV across IA/IL, before spreading south/southeastward into this evening. The extreme instability (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear should support organized clusters, and eventually an MCS, with damaging winds likely. A tornado or two is also possible with initial convection along the boundary owing to extreme buoyancy, or any embedded QLCS circulations with the expected MCS. See MCD#1742 for short-term information. Elsewhere, isolated damaging gusts remain possible with scattered thunderstorms over the northern Rockies and across the Mid Atlantic/Southeast. Weaker buoyancy/shear overlap suggests these occurrences will be more sporadic, with limited storm organization/longevity. See the prior discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 07/26/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026/ ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Initial supercell storms are expected to develop across northern MN/WI later this afternoon, aided by a favorably timed shortwave impulse rounding the Plains upper ridge. Another MCV/shortwave impulse located over the Dakotas at midday will also spread east/southeast across southern/central MN this afternoon. These features will provide support for one or more focused areas of thunderstorm development. Initial supercells will pose an all-hazards risk, including locally severe wind gusts, very large hail, and a couple of tornadoes. With time into the evening, initial supercells may grow into one or two small bowing MCSs. This storm mode transition will support an increased risk for intense damaging wind swaths this evening into tonight as convection spreads southeast along a strong instability/moisture gradient across WI and the Lake Michigan vicinity. ...Mid-Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Multiple areas of strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from near the MS River into IL/IN/KY/TN. Thunderstorm development may be aided by a weak shortwave impulse/MCV migrating southeast from IA at midday and into the Lower OH Valley this evening. Storms are expected to develop along a corridor of differential heating near/just east of the MS River where mostly clear skies this morning have already resulted in temperatures approaching 85-90 F, while scattered clouds further east will maintain somewhat lower high temperatures. Thunderstorm clusters this afternoon will pose a risk for severe/damaging wind gusts. Sufficient clustering may occur and some upscale development into a forward propagating bow may occur across the Lower Ohio Valley vicinity this evening, and wind probabilities have been increased to 30 percent for parts of southern IL/IN and western KY. This activity could be maintained southward during the overnight hours as far south as northern AL/GA given favorable instability and sufficiently strong northwesterly flow aloft. Damaging wind gusts could persist with this activity as it spreads south/southeast across TN into AL/GA toward early Monday morning. ...NE/SD/IA... A deeply mixed and hot boundary layer will develop this afternoon/early evening in the vicinity of a weak surface trough from NE into southeast SD/northwest IA. Very steep lapse rates aloft will foster 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Vertically veering wind profiles and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will provide 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes and a few organized cells/clusters may develop by late afternoon. Damaging wind gusts of 60-80 mph would be the main hazard with this activity. While temperatures are somewhat warm aloft, the strongest storms could produce sporadic large hail. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Southeast GA/Northern FL... Upper troughing will persist today across the East, though some enhancement to northwesterly flow aloft is expected. Relatively cool conditions, weak lapse rates, and the potential influence of smoke will temper destabilization across the Mid-Atlantic. Nevertheless, MLCAPE 1000 J/kg amid 25-35 kt of effective shear may support occasional organized storms capable of producing locally damaging gusts. Stronger heating/destabilization is expected farther south across the Carolinas into GA/FL. Deep-layer flow/shear will be somewhat weaker compared to farther north, but may still be sufficient for transient storm organization with sporadic locally damaging winds possible. ...Southeast MT/northern WY/Black Hills vicinity... High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon along the northern periphery of the upper ridge, with the greatest storm coverage expected across parts of northern Wyoming and southern Montana. Overall buoyancy is expected to remain weak, but inverted-v profiles will support a threat of strong to localized severe gusts as storms spread eastward toward the Black Hills before weakening into mid/late evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds (possibly 75+ mph), and tornado risk remain likely from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes southwestward into Nebraska, mainly late this afternoon and tonight. ...20Z Update Upper Midwest... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Severe storm development remains likely this afternoon and evening as a very warm air mass continues to destabilize. Weak, but sufficient, synoptic ascent (evident in visible imagery) should aid in removing inhibition by late this afternoon. Initial supercells developing over northeastern MN and far northern WI will pose an all-hazards risk, including locally severe wind gusts, very large hail, and a couple of tornadoes. An MCS should eventually develop and track south/southeast across WI and MI with a risk for damaging gusts and a brief tornado or two through tonight. ...NE... More isolated higher-based convection remains possible from central and eastern NE, into western IA, and southeast SD late this afternoon and evening. Very hot surface temperatures and moderate buoyancy will support a few stronger storms with damaging wind and isolated hail potential. Convective development appears most probable along a thermally induced surface pressure trough, from central NE northeastward late this afternoon. ...Mid MS Valley... A very unstable and weakly capped air mass is present along a diffuse differential heating zone from northwest IL, into northern TN. Current expectations are for one or more clusters of thunderstorms to develop along the boundary and ahead of a weak mid-level wave/MCV across IA/IL, before spreading south/southeastward into this evening. The extreme instability (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear should support organized clusters, and eventually an MCS, with damaging winds likely. A tornado or two is also possible with initial convection along the boundary owing to extreme buoyancy, or any embedded QLCS circulations with the expected MCS. See MCD#1742 for short-term information. Elsewhere, isolated damaging gusts remain possible with scattered thunderstorms over the northern Rockies and across the Mid Atlantic/Southeast. Weaker buoyancy/shear overlap suggests these occurrences will be more sporadic, with limited storm organization/longevity. See the prior discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 07/26/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026/ ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Initial supercell storms are expected to develop across northern MN/WI later this afternoon, aided by a favorably timed shortwave impulse rounding the Plains upper ridge. Another MCV/shortwave impulse located over the Dakotas at midday will also spread east/southeast across southern/central MN this afternoon. These features will provide support for one or more focused areas of thunderstorm development. Initial supercells will pose an all-hazards risk, including locally severe wind gusts, very large hail, and a couple of tornadoes. With time into the evening, initial supercells may grow into one or two small bowing MCSs. This storm mode transition will support an increased risk for intense damaging wind swaths this evening into tonight as convection spreads southeast along a strong instability/moisture gradient across WI and the Lake Michigan vicinity. ...Mid-Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Multiple areas of strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from near the MS River into IL/IN/KY/TN. Thunderstorm development may be aided by a weak shortwave impulse/MCV migrating southeast from IA at midday and into the Lower OH Valley this evening. Storms are expected to develop along a corridor of differential heating near/just east of the MS River where mostly clear skies this morning have already resulted in temperatures approaching 85-90 F, while scattered clouds further east will maintain somewhat lower high temperatures. Thunderstorm clusters this afternoon will pose a risk for severe/damaging wind gusts. Sufficient clustering may occur and some upscale development into a forward propagating bow may occur across the Lower Ohio Valley vicinity this evening, and wind probabilities have been increased to 30 percent for parts of southern IL/IN and western KY. This activity could be maintained southward during the overnight hours as far south as northern AL/GA given favorable instability and sufficiently strong northwesterly flow aloft. Damaging wind gusts could persist with this activity as it spreads south/southeast across TN into AL/GA toward early Monday morning. ...NE/SD/IA... A deeply mixed and hot boundary layer will develop this afternoon/early evening in the vicinity of a weak surface trough from NE into southeast SD/northwest IA. Very steep lapse rates aloft will foster 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Vertically veering wind profiles and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will provide 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes and a few organized cells/clusters may develop by late afternoon. Damaging wind gusts of 60-80 mph would be the main hazard with this activity. While temperatures are somewhat warm aloft, the strongest storms could produce sporadic large hail. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Southeast GA/Northern FL... Upper troughing will persist today across the East, though some enhancement to northwesterly flow aloft is expected. Relatively cool conditions, weak lapse rates, and the potential influence of smoke will temper destabilization across the Mid-Atlantic. Nevertheless, MLCAPE 1000 J/kg amid 25-35 kt of effective shear may support occasional organized storms capable of producing locally damaging gusts. Stronger heating/destabilization is expected farther south across the Carolinas into GA/FL. Deep-layer flow/shear will be somewhat weaker compared to farther north, but may still be sufficient for transient storm organization with sporadic locally damaging winds possible. ...Southeast MT/northern WY/Black Hills vicinity... High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon along the northern periphery of the upper ridge, with the greatest storm coverage expected across parts of northern Wyoming and southern Montana. Overall buoyancy is expected to remain weak, but inverted-v profiles will support a threat of strong to localized severe gusts as storms spread eastward toward the Black Hills before weakening into mid/late evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds (possibly 75+ mph), and tornado risk remain likely from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes southwestward into Nebraska, mainly late this afternoon and tonight. ...20Z Update Upper Midwest... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Severe storm development remains likely this afternoon and evening as a very warm air mass continues to destabilize. Weak, but sufficient, synoptic ascent (evident in visible imagery) should aid in removing inhibition by late this afternoon. Initial supercells developing over northeastern MN and far northern WI will pose an all-hazards risk, including locally severe wind gusts, very large hail, and a couple of tornadoes. An MCS should eventually develop and track south/southeast across WI and MI with a risk for damaging gusts and a brief tornado or two through tonight. ...NE... More isolated higher-based convection remains possible from central and eastern NE, into western IA, and southeast SD late this afternoon and evening. Very hot surface temperatures and moderate buoyancy will support a few stronger storms with damaging wind and isolated hail potential. Convective development appears most probable along a thermally induced surface pressure trough, from central NE northeastward late this afternoon. ...Mid MS Valley... A very unstable and weakly capped air mass is present along a diffuse differential heating zone from northwest IL, into northern TN. Current expectations are for one or more clusters of thunderstorms to develop along the boundary and ahead of a weak mid-level wave/MCV across IA/IL, before spreading south/southeastward into this evening. The extreme instability (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear should support organized clusters, and eventually an MCS, with damaging winds likely. A tornado or two is also possible with initial convection along the boundary owing to extreme buoyancy, or any embedded QLCS circulations with the expected MCS. See MCD#1742 for short-term information. Elsewhere, isolated damaging gusts remain possible with scattered thunderstorms over the northern Rockies and across the Mid Atlantic/Southeast. Weaker buoyancy/shear overlap suggests these occurrences will be more sporadic, with limited storm organization/longevity. See the prior discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 07/26/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026/ ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Initial supercell storms are expected to develop across northern MN/WI later this afternoon, aided by a favorably timed shortwave impulse rounding the Plains upper ridge. Another MCV/shortwave impulse located over the Dakotas at midday will also spread east/southeast across southern/central MN this afternoon. These features will provide support for one or more focused areas of thunderstorm development. Initial supercells will pose an all-hazards risk, including locally severe wind gusts, very large hail, and a couple of tornadoes. With time into the evening, initial supercells may grow into one or two small bowing MCSs. This storm mode transition will support an increased risk for intense damaging wind swaths this evening into tonight as convection spreads southeast along a strong instability/moisture gradient across WI and the Lake Michigan vicinity. ...Mid-Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Multiple areas of strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from near the MS River into IL/IN/KY/TN. Thunderstorm development may be aided by a weak shortwave impulse/MCV migrating southeast from IA at midday and into the Lower OH Valley this evening. Storms are expected to develop along a corridor of differential heating near/just east of the MS River where mostly clear skies this morning have already resulted in temperatures approaching 85-90 F, while scattered clouds further east will maintain somewhat lower high temperatures. Thunderstorm clusters this afternoon will pose a risk for severe/damaging wind gusts. Sufficient clustering may occur and some upscale development into a forward propagating bow may occur across the Lower Ohio Valley vicinity this evening, and wind probabilities have been increased to 30 percent for parts of southern IL/IN and western KY. This activity could be maintained southward during the overnight hours as far south as northern AL/GA given favorable instability and sufficiently strong northwesterly flow aloft. Damaging wind gusts could persist with this activity as it spreads south/southeast across TN into AL/GA toward early Monday morning. ...NE/SD/IA... A deeply mixed and hot boundary layer will develop this afternoon/early evening in the vicinity of a weak surface trough from NE into southeast SD/northwest IA. Very steep lapse rates aloft will foster 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Vertically veering wind profiles and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will provide 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes and a few organized cells/clusters may develop by late afternoon. Damaging wind gusts of 60-80 mph would be the main hazard with this activity. While temperatures are somewhat warm aloft, the strongest storms could produce sporadic large hail. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Southeast GA/Northern FL... Upper troughing will persist today across the East, though some enhancement to northwesterly flow aloft is expected. Relatively cool conditions, weak lapse rates, and the potential influence of smoke will temper destabilization across the Mid-Atlantic. Nevertheless, MLCAPE 1000 J/kg amid 25-35 kt of effective shear may support occasional organized storms capable of producing locally damaging gusts. Stronger heating/destabilization is expected farther south across the Carolinas into GA/FL. Deep-layer flow/shear will be somewhat weaker compared to farther north, but may still be sufficient for transient storm organization with sporadic locally damaging winds possible. ...Southeast MT/northern WY/Black Hills vicinity... High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon along the northern periphery of the upper ridge, with the greatest storm coverage expected across parts of northern Wyoming and southern Montana. Overall buoyancy is expected to remain weak, but inverted-v profiles will support a threat of strong to localized severe gusts as storms spread eastward toward the Black Hills before weakening into mid/late evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds (possibly 75+ mph), and tornado risk remain likely from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes southwestward into Nebraska, mainly late this afternoon and tonight. ...20Z Update Upper Midwest... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Severe storm development remains likely this afternoon and evening as a very warm air mass continues to destabilize. Weak, but sufficient, synoptic ascent (evident in visible imagery) should aid in removing inhibition by late this afternoon. Initial supercells developing over northeastern MN and far northern WI will pose an all-hazards risk, including locally severe wind gusts, very large hail, and a couple of tornadoes. An MCS should eventually develop and track south/southeast across WI and MI with a risk for damaging gusts and a brief tornado or two through tonight. ...NE... More isolated higher-based convection remains possible from central and eastern NE, into western IA, and southeast SD late this afternoon and evening. Very hot surface temperatures and moderate buoyancy will support a few stronger storms with damaging wind and isolated hail potential. Convective development appears most probable along a thermally induced surface pressure trough, from central NE northeastward late this afternoon. ...Mid MS Valley... A very unstable and weakly capped air mass is present along a diffuse differential heating zone from northwest IL, into northern TN. Current expectations are for one or more clusters of thunderstorms to develop along the boundary and ahead of a weak mid-level wave/MCV across IA/IL, before spreading south/southeastward into this evening. The extreme instability (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear should support organized clusters, and eventually an MCS, with damaging winds likely. A tornado or two is also possible with initial convection along the boundary owing to extreme buoyancy, or any embedded QLCS circulations with the expected MCS. See MCD#1742 for short-term information. Elsewhere, isolated damaging gusts remain possible with scattered thunderstorms over the northern Rockies and across the Mid Atlantic/Southeast. Weaker buoyancy/shear overlap suggests these occurrences will be more sporadic, with limited storm organization/longevity. See the prior discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 07/26/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026/ ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Initial supercell storms are expected to develop across northern MN/WI later this afternoon, aided by a favorably timed shortwave impulse rounding the Plains upper ridge. Another MCV/shortwave impulse located over the Dakotas at midday will also spread east/southeast across southern/central MN this afternoon. These features will provide support for one or more focused areas of thunderstorm development. Initial supercells will pose an all-hazards risk, including locally severe wind gusts, very large hail, and a couple of tornadoes. With time into the evening, initial supercells may grow into one or two small bowing MCSs. This storm mode transition will support an increased risk for intense damaging wind swaths this evening into tonight as convection spreads southeast along a strong instability/moisture gradient across WI and the Lake Michigan vicinity. ...Mid-Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Multiple areas of strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from near the MS River into IL/IN/KY/TN. Thunderstorm development may be aided by a weak shortwave impulse/MCV migrating southeast from IA at midday and into the Lower OH Valley this evening. Storms are expected to develop along a corridor of differential heating near/just east of the MS River where mostly clear skies this morning have already resulted in temperatures approaching 85-90 F, while scattered clouds further east will maintain somewhat lower high temperatures. Thunderstorm clusters this afternoon will pose a risk for severe/damaging wind gusts. Sufficient clustering may occur and some upscale development into a forward propagating bow may occur across the Lower Ohio Valley vicinity this evening, and wind probabilities have been increased to 30 percent for parts of southern IL/IN and western KY. This activity could be maintained southward during the overnight hours as far south as northern AL/GA given favorable instability and sufficiently strong northwesterly flow aloft. Damaging wind gusts could persist with this activity as it spreads south/southeast across TN into AL/GA toward early Monday morning. ...NE/SD/IA... A deeply mixed and hot boundary layer will develop this afternoon/early evening in the vicinity of a weak surface trough from NE into southeast SD/northwest IA. Very steep lapse rates aloft will foster 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Vertically veering wind profiles and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will provide 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes and a few organized cells/clusters may develop by late afternoon. Damaging wind gusts of 60-80 mph would be the main hazard with this activity. While temperatures are somewhat warm aloft, the strongest storms could produce sporadic large hail. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Southeast GA/Northern FL... Upper troughing will persist today across the East, though some enhancement to northwesterly flow aloft is expected. Relatively cool conditions, weak lapse rates, and the potential influence of smoke will temper destabilization across the Mid-Atlantic. Nevertheless, MLCAPE 1000 J/kg amid 25-35 kt of effective shear may support occasional organized storms capable of producing locally damaging gusts. Stronger heating/destabilization is expected farther south across the Carolinas into GA/FL. Deep-layer flow/shear will be somewhat weaker compared to farther north, but may still be sufficient for transient storm organization with sporadic locally damaging winds possible. ...Southeast MT/northern WY/Black Hills vicinity... High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon along the northern periphery of the upper ridge, with the greatest storm coverage expected across parts of northern Wyoming and southern Montana. Overall buoyancy is expected to remain weak, but inverted-v profiles will support a threat of strong to localized severe gusts as storms spread eastward toward the Black Hills before weakening into mid/late evening. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO NORTH CAROLINA AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and isolated hail are possible from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and central and southern Appalachians Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Isolated severe wind gusts may occur in the central High Plains. ...Southern Mid Atlantic into North Carolina and southern Appalachians... An upper trough with a 40-50 kt midlevel speed max will push southeastward across the Appalachians and into parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas during the day, supporting thunderstorms through much of the period. Storms are expected to be ongoing early Tuesday from PA and WV into eastern KY, near a cold front. This activity should persist as it moves into MD/VA/NC, where a surface trough will deepen. Daytime heating along with ample low-level moisture will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and winds will be veering with height, supporting a few supercells. Despite warm temperatures aloft, the 40-50 kt deep-layer shear may support hail in the strongest cells. In addition, southwesterly 850 mb winds up to 40 kt late in the day may yield an isolated tornado risk from southeast VA into NC. Moderately high PWAT along with steep low-level lapse rates during the peak heating hours will also support locally damaging wind gusts. ...Northern High Plains... Instability will increase over eastern WY, western SD/NE and northeast CO during the afternoon as a weak surface trough develops. Southeast surface winds will maintain 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints, with storms forming after 21Z near the higher terrain in WY/CO. South to southeast storm motions may bring multicellular storms across western NE and northeast CO during the evening with a few severe gusts possible. ..Jewell.. 07/26/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO NORTH CAROLINA AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and isolated hail are possible from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and central and southern Appalachians Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Isolated severe wind gusts may occur in the central High Plains. ...Southern Mid Atlantic into North Carolina and southern Appalachians... An upper trough with a 40-50 kt midlevel speed max will push southeastward across the Appalachians and into parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas during the day, supporting thunderstorms through much of the period. Storms are expected to be ongoing early Tuesday from PA and WV into eastern KY, near a cold front. This activity should persist as it moves into MD/VA/NC, where a surface trough will deepen. Daytime heating along with ample low-level moisture will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and winds will be veering with height, supporting a few supercells. Despite warm temperatures aloft, the 40-50 kt deep-layer shear may support hail in the strongest cells. In addition, southwesterly 850 mb winds up to 40 kt late in the day may yield an isolated tornado risk from southeast VA into NC. Moderately high PWAT along with steep low-level lapse rates during the peak heating hours will also support locally damaging wind gusts. ...Northern High Plains... Instability will increase over eastern WY, western SD/NE and northeast CO during the afternoon as a weak surface trough develops. Southeast surface winds will maintain 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints, with storms forming after 21Z near the higher terrain in WY/CO. South to southeast storm motions may bring multicellular storms across western NE and northeast CO during the evening with a few severe gusts possible. ..Jewell.. 07/26/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO NORTH CAROLINA AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and isolated hail are possible from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and central and southern Appalachians Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Isolated severe wind gusts may occur in the central High Plains. ...Southern Mid Atlantic into North Carolina and southern Appalachians... An upper trough with a 40-50 kt midlevel speed max will push southeastward across the Appalachians and into parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas during the day, supporting thunderstorms through much of the period. Storms are expected to be ongoing early Tuesday from PA and WV into eastern KY, near a cold front. This activity should persist as it moves into MD/VA/NC, where a surface trough will deepen. Daytime heating along with ample low-level moisture will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and winds will be veering with height, supporting a few supercells. Despite warm temperatures aloft, the 40-50 kt deep-layer shear may support hail in the strongest cells. In addition, southwesterly 850 mb winds up to 40 kt late in the day may yield an isolated tornado risk from southeast VA into NC. Moderately high PWAT along with steep low-level lapse rates during the peak heating hours will also support locally damaging wind gusts. ...Northern High Plains... Instability will increase over eastern WY, western SD/NE and northeast CO during the afternoon as a weak surface trough develops. Southeast surface winds will maintain 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints, with storms forming after 21Z near the higher terrain in WY/CO. South to southeast storm motions may bring multicellular storms across western NE and northeast CO during the evening with a few severe gusts possible. ..Jewell.. 07/26/2026 Read more