Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1, zonal mid-level flow with embedded impulses will characterize the upper-air pattern across the CONUS tomorrow (Monday). Surface troughing will develop across the Interior West by the afternoon hours, resulting in a broad area of dry and breezy conditions across the southern Great Basin into the Four Corners region. 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH atop dry fuels, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Similarly, Elevated highlights were also introduced for another afternoon of channeled flow across the Snake River Plain, where 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15 percent RH will overspread dry fuels for several hours. ..Squitieri.. 06/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1, zonal mid-level flow with embedded impulses will characterize the upper-air pattern across the CONUS tomorrow (Monday). Surface troughing will develop across the Interior West by the afternoon hours, resulting in a broad area of dry and breezy conditions across the southern Great Basin into the Four Corners region. 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH atop dry fuels, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Similarly, Elevated highlights were also introduced for another afternoon of channeled flow across the Snake River Plain, where 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15 percent RH will overspread dry fuels for several hours. ..Squitieri.. 06/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow will prevail over the CONUS today, with multiple embedded impulses poised to traverse this flow. Across the Intermountain West, one such mid-level impulse will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging surface low development along the southern High Plains. Dry westerly flow will ensue across the desert Southwest, with 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 5-15 percent RH overspreading dry fuels from far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Dry and windy conditions will also channel within the Snake River Plain by afternoon peak heating in southern Idaho. Here, 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 15 percent RH and dry fuels, with Elevated highlights maintained here as well. ..Squitieri.. 06/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow will prevail over the CONUS today, with multiple embedded impulses poised to traverse this flow. Across the Intermountain West, one such mid-level impulse will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging surface low development along the southern High Plains. Dry westerly flow will ensue across the desert Southwest, with 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 5-15 percent RH overspreading dry fuels from far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Dry and windy conditions will also channel within the Snake River Plain by afternoon peak heating in southern Idaho. Here, 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 15 percent RH and dry fuels, with Elevated highlights maintained here as well. ..Squitieri.. 06/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow will prevail over the CONUS today, with multiple embedded impulses poised to traverse this flow. Across the Intermountain West, one such mid-level impulse will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging surface low development along the southern High Plains. Dry westerly flow will ensue across the desert Southwest, with 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 5-15 percent RH overspreading dry fuels from far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Dry and windy conditions will also channel within the Snake River Plain by afternoon peak heating in southern Idaho. Here, 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 15 percent RH and dry fuels, with Elevated highlights maintained here as well. ..Squitieri.. 06/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow will prevail over the CONUS today, with multiple embedded impulses poised to traverse this flow. Across the Intermountain West, one such mid-level impulse will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging surface low development along the southern High Plains. Dry westerly flow will ensue across the desert Southwest, with 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 5-15 percent RH overspreading dry fuels from far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Dry and windy conditions will also channel within the Snake River Plain by afternoon peak heating in southern Idaho. Here, 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 15 percent RH and dry fuels, with Elevated highlights maintained here as well. ..Squitieri.. 06/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 359 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 210020Z - 210800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 359 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 720 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central into Northern Kansas South-Central Nebraska * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 720 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Clusters of severe thunderstorms are forecast to move into the Watch area this evening and continue into the overnight. Severe gusts will likely accompany the more intense thunderstorms and their outflow along the leading gust front. Severe gusts ranging from 60 to 80 mph are possible. Large hail may also occur with the stronger thunderstorm cores. As the low-level jet intensifies this evening and a linear cluster evolves, a tornado or two is possible that would be embedded within the squall line. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles east northeast of Hastings NE to 25 miles west southwest of Hutchinson KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 356...WW 357...WW 358... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Smith Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic Monday afternoon and evening. More isolated severe weather is expected along a frontal zone that will extend from the southern Appalachians to the Mid-South and southern Plains. Additionally, a widely scattered severe weather threat is expected across the central and northern High Plains Monday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal flow is expected across the CONUS on Monday with multiple embedded shortwave troughs within the flow pattern from the central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. A weak surface low is expected to movefrom the Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic, associated with the strongest of the mid-level jet streaks within the broader flow. An additional lee cyclone is expected to develop along the southern High Plains during the period with a surface front connecting these two features. ...Mid-Atlantic... Moderate instability is forecast to develop east of the Appalachians from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic on Monday beneath up to 50 knots of mid-level flow. This combination of shear and instability will support storm organization, including the potential for some supercells. Neutral to potentially weak height rises may limit storm coverage across the region, which may preclude a more widespread severe wind threat. However, given the steep low-level lapse rates where temperatures are forecast to warm into the mid 90s, damaging winds will be likely from any storms that develop. A narrow zone near the warm front will have a greater tornado threat given the enhanced shear from a compact, but strong, low-level jet across northern Virginia into the DelMarVa. A 5% tornado contour may eventually be needed within this zone, but given the relatively narrow zone of threat and some uncertainty where this front will be by Monday afternoon/evening, higher probabilities will not be added at this time. ...Central/Northern High Plains... Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast across eastern Wyoming during the day Monday. This will strengthen upslope flow across the central/northern Plains. Moderate instability and strengthening west-northwesterly flow aloft of 40 to 45 knots will result in an environment that supports widely scattered supercells with the potential for large to very large hail and perhaps some isolated wind gusts. ...Northwest Texas and Vicinity... A more conditional severe weather threat will exist across northwest Texas and vicinity where there is potential for an outflow boundary from the morning MCS across Oklahoma to intersect the dryline. Height rises aloft and strong inhibition should mostly suppress convection. However, mesoscale convergence at the intersection of these boundaries could result in one or two supercells capable of all severe hazards. However, given the conditionality of this mesoscale threat, higher probabilities have not been added at this time. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley... Moderate to strong destabilization is forecast ahead of and south of a morning MCS that should be in the Oklahoma/Arkansas region on Monday morning. Reinvigoration of the ongoing MCS or additional development may result in some isolated damaging wind threat. However, overall very weak mid-level lapse rates and weaker shear where the greatest instability is forecast, should keep the threat mostly marginal/isolated. ..Bentley.. 06/21/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic Monday afternoon and evening. More isolated severe weather is expected along a frontal zone that will extend from the southern Appalachians to the Mid-South and southern Plains. Additionally, a widely scattered severe weather threat is expected across the central and northern High Plains Monday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal flow is expected across the CONUS on Monday with multiple embedded shortwave troughs within the flow pattern from the central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. A weak surface low is expected to movefrom the Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic, associated with the strongest of the mid-level jet streaks within the broader flow. An additional lee cyclone is expected to develop along the southern High Plains during the period with a surface front connecting these two features. ...Mid-Atlantic... Moderate instability is forecast to develop east of the Appalachians from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic on Monday beneath up to 50 knots of mid-level flow. This combination of shear and instability will support storm organization, including the potential for some supercells. Neutral to potentially weak height rises may limit storm coverage across the region, which may preclude a more widespread severe wind threat. However, given the steep low-level lapse rates where temperatures are forecast to warm into the mid 90s, damaging winds will be likely from any storms that develop. A narrow zone near the warm front will have a greater tornado threat given the enhanced shear from a compact, but strong, low-level jet across northern Virginia into the DelMarVa. A 5% tornado contour may eventually be needed within this zone, but given the relatively narrow zone of threat and some uncertainty where this front will be by Monday afternoon/evening, higher probabilities will not be added at this time. ...Central/Northern High Plains... Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast across eastern Wyoming during the day Monday. This will strengthen upslope flow across the central/northern Plains. Moderate instability and strengthening west-northwesterly flow aloft of 40 to 45 knots will result in an environment that supports widely scattered supercells with the potential for large to very large hail and perhaps some isolated wind gusts. ...Northwest Texas and Vicinity... A more conditional severe weather threat will exist across northwest Texas and vicinity where there is potential for an outflow boundary from the morning MCS across Oklahoma to intersect the dryline. Height rises aloft and strong inhibition should mostly suppress convection. However, mesoscale convergence at the intersection of these boundaries could result in one or two supercells capable of all severe hazards. However, given the conditionality of this mesoscale threat, higher probabilities have not been added at this time. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley... Moderate to strong destabilization is forecast ahead of and south of a morning MCS that should be in the Oklahoma/Arkansas region on Monday morning. Reinvigoration of the ongoing MCS or additional development may result in some isolated damaging wind threat. However, overall very weak mid-level lapse rates and weaker shear where the greatest instability is forecast, should keep the threat mostly marginal/isolated. ..Bentley.. 06/21/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic Monday afternoon and evening. More isolated severe weather is expected along a frontal zone that will extend from the southern Appalachians to the Mid-South and southern Plains. Additionally, a widely scattered severe weather threat is expected across the central and northern High Plains Monday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal flow is expected across the CONUS on Monday with multiple embedded shortwave troughs within the flow pattern from the central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. A weak surface low is expected to movefrom the Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic, associated with the strongest of the mid-level jet streaks within the broader flow. An additional lee cyclone is expected to develop along the southern High Plains during the period with a surface front connecting these two features. ...Mid-Atlantic... Moderate instability is forecast to develop east of the Appalachians from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic on Monday beneath up to 50 knots of mid-level flow. This combination of shear and instability will support storm organization, including the potential for some supercells. Neutral to potentially weak height rises may limit storm coverage across the region, which may preclude a more widespread severe wind threat. However, given the steep low-level lapse rates where temperatures are forecast to warm into the mid 90s, damaging winds will be likely from any storms that develop. A narrow zone near the warm front will have a greater tornado threat given the enhanced shear from a compact, but strong, low-level jet across northern Virginia into the DelMarVa. A 5% tornado contour may eventually be needed within this zone, but given the relatively narrow zone of threat and some uncertainty where this front will be by Monday afternoon/evening, higher probabilities will not be added at this time. ...Central/Northern High Plains... Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast across eastern Wyoming during the day Monday. This will strengthen upslope flow across the central/northern Plains. Moderate instability and strengthening west-northwesterly flow aloft of 40 to 45 knots will result in an environment that supports widely scattered supercells with the potential for large to very large hail and perhaps some isolated wind gusts. ...Northwest Texas and Vicinity... A more conditional severe weather threat will exist across northwest Texas and vicinity where there is potential for an outflow boundary from the morning MCS across Oklahoma to intersect the dryline. Height rises aloft and strong inhibition should mostly suppress convection. However, mesoscale convergence at the intersection of these boundaries could result in one or two supercells capable of all severe hazards. However, given the conditionality of this mesoscale threat, higher probabilities have not been added at this time. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley... Moderate to strong destabilization is forecast ahead of and south of a morning MCS that should be in the Oklahoma/Arkansas region on Monday morning. Reinvigoration of the ongoing MCS or additional development may result in some isolated damaging wind threat. However, overall very weak mid-level lapse rates and weaker shear where the greatest instability is forecast, should keep the threat mostly marginal/isolated. ..Bentley.. 06/21/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic Monday afternoon and evening. More isolated severe weather is expected along a frontal zone that will extend from the southern Appalachians to the Mid-South and southern Plains. Additionally, a widely scattered severe weather threat is expected across the central and northern High Plains Monday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal flow is expected across the CONUS on Monday with multiple embedded shortwave troughs within the flow pattern from the central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. A weak surface low is expected to movefrom the Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic, associated with the strongest of the mid-level jet streaks within the broader flow. An additional lee cyclone is expected to develop along the southern High Plains during the period with a surface front connecting these two features. ...Mid-Atlantic... Moderate instability is forecast to develop east of the Appalachians from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic on Monday beneath up to 50 knots of mid-level flow. This combination of shear and instability will support storm organization, including the potential for some supercells. Neutral to potentially weak height rises may limit storm coverage across the region, which may preclude a more widespread severe wind threat. However, given the steep low-level lapse rates where temperatures are forecast to warm into the mid 90s, damaging winds will be likely from any storms that develop. A narrow zone near the warm front will have a greater tornado threat given the enhanced shear from a compact, but strong, low-level jet across northern Virginia into the DelMarVa. A 5% tornado contour may eventually be needed within this zone, but given the relatively narrow zone of threat and some uncertainty where this front will be by Monday afternoon/evening, higher probabilities will not be added at this time. ...Central/Northern High Plains... Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast across eastern Wyoming during the day Monday. This will strengthen upslope flow across the central/northern Plains. Moderate instability and strengthening west-northwesterly flow aloft of 40 to 45 knots will result in an environment that supports widely scattered supercells with the potential for large to very large hail and perhaps some isolated wind gusts. ...Northwest Texas and Vicinity... A more conditional severe weather threat will exist across northwest Texas and vicinity where there is potential for an outflow boundary from the morning MCS across Oklahoma to intersect the dryline. Height rises aloft and strong inhibition should mostly suppress convection. However, mesoscale convergence at the intersection of these boundaries could result in one or two supercells capable of all severe hazards. However, given the conditionality of this mesoscale threat, higher probabilities have not been added at this time. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley... Moderate to strong destabilization is forecast ahead of and south of a morning MCS that should be in the Oklahoma/Arkansas region on Monday morning. Reinvigoration of the ongoing MCS or additional development may result in some isolated damaging wind threat. However, overall very weak mid-level lapse rates and weaker shear where the greatest instability is forecast, should keep the threat mostly marginal/isolated. ..Bentley.. 06/21/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible from the central High Plains into the Ohio Valley, mainly this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will be possible. Some strong-tornado potential could develop across parts of Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana during the afternoon and early evening. ...Parts of MO into the Ohio Valley... An all-hazards severe threat, including some conditional strong-tornado potential, is still evident from parts of MO into the Ohio Valley later today, though uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude and most favored corridor of the greatest threat. No upgrade was made with this outlook, though greater tornado and/or wind probabilities may eventually be needed, depending on how the uncertainties are resolved. Guidance generally suggests that an MCV currently evolving across KS will move across central/northern MO through the morning, before moving into parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley through the afternoon. In association with the MCV, a surface low may deepen along a front and move across parts of central MO/IL. Guidance varies regarding the strength of the surface low, enhancement to low-level shear/SRH, and magnitude of destabilization in advance of the MCV. However, in general, rich moisture and enlarged low-level hodographs will support development of a storm cluster with embedded supercells and/or mesovortices, if sufficient diurnal destabilization occurs. Tornadoes and damaging winds could accompany any organized cells/clusters. Strong-tornado potential could evolve if any supercells can be sustained within this regime. In the wake of the MCV, relatively strong heating will support at least moderate destabilization along the trailing front across parts of central/southern MO. While some weakening/veering of low-level flow is expected after the passage of the MCV, deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized development along the boundary, which could pose an all-hazards severe threat from late afternoon into the evening from south-central MO into the lower OH Valley. ...Central High Plains into the Ozarks... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over WY will move toward KS/NE later today. A 35-50 kt midlevel jet maximum attendant to this shortwave will impinge upon parts of the central and southern High Plains. An outflow-influenced front will likely extend across parts of southern KS, with moist easterly flow expected north of this boundary by late afternoon, while strong heating will occur south of the boundary. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected within the post-frontal regime from southeast WY/northeast CO into western NE/KS. Moderate buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear will support supercell development, with a threat of large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Widely scattered afternoon storm development will also be possible in the vicinity of the surface front, from northwest OK into southeast KS/southwest MO. Moderate to strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will support supercell development with initial storms along the front, with some clustering possible later in the convective evolution. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and some tornado potential could accompany the strongest afternoon/evening storms. Late tonight into early Monday morning, guidance generally suggests development of one or more upscale growing clusters, evolving from either diurnal convection, or nocturnal elevated redevelopment. Swaths of strong to severe gusts could accompany any upscale growth, though guidance varies considerably regarding the most favorable corridors late in the forecast period. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 06/21/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible from the central High Plains into the Ohio Valley, mainly this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will be possible. Some strong-tornado potential could develop across parts of Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana during the afternoon and early evening. ...Parts of MO into the Ohio Valley... An all-hazards severe threat, including some conditional strong-tornado potential, is still evident from parts of MO into the Ohio Valley later today, though uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude and most favored corridor of the greatest threat. No upgrade was made with this outlook, though greater tornado and/or wind probabilities may eventually be needed, depending on how the uncertainties are resolved. Guidance generally suggests that an MCV currently evolving across KS will move across central/northern MO through the morning, before moving into parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley through the afternoon. In association with the MCV, a surface low may deepen along a front and move across parts of central MO/IL. Guidance varies regarding the strength of the surface low, enhancement to low-level shear/SRH, and magnitude of destabilization in advance of the MCV. However, in general, rich moisture and enlarged low-level hodographs will support development of a storm cluster with embedded supercells and/or mesovortices, if sufficient diurnal destabilization occurs. Tornadoes and damaging winds could accompany any organized cells/clusters. Strong-tornado potential could evolve if any supercells can be sustained within this regime. In the wake of the MCV, relatively strong heating will support at least moderate destabilization along the trailing front across parts of central/southern MO. While some weakening/veering of low-level flow is expected after the passage of the MCV, deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized development along the boundary, which could pose an all-hazards severe threat from late afternoon into the evening from south-central MO into the lower OH Valley. ...Central High Plains into the Ozarks... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over WY will move toward KS/NE later today. A 35-50 kt midlevel jet maximum attendant to this shortwave will impinge upon parts of the central and southern High Plains. An outflow-influenced front will likely extend across parts of southern KS, with moist easterly flow expected north of this boundary by late afternoon, while strong heating will occur south of the boundary. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected within the post-frontal regime from southeast WY/northeast CO into western NE/KS. Moderate buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear will support supercell development, with a threat of large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Widely scattered afternoon storm development will also be possible in the vicinity of the surface front, from northwest OK into southeast KS/southwest MO. Moderate to strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will support supercell development with initial storms along the front, with some clustering possible later in the convective evolution. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and some tornado potential could accompany the strongest afternoon/evening storms. Late tonight into early Monday morning, guidance generally suggests development of one or more upscale growing clusters, evolving from either diurnal convection, or nocturnal elevated redevelopment. Swaths of strong to severe gusts could accompany any upscale growth, though guidance varies considerably regarding the most favorable corridors late in the forecast period. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 06/21/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible from the central High Plains into the Ohio Valley, mainly this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will be possible. Some strong-tornado potential could develop across parts of Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana during the afternoon and early evening. ...Parts of MO into the Ohio Valley... An all-hazards severe threat, including some conditional strong-tornado potential, is still evident from parts of MO into the Ohio Valley later today, though uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude and most favored corridor of the greatest threat. No upgrade was made with this outlook, though greater tornado and/or wind probabilities may eventually be needed, depending on how the uncertainties are resolved. Guidance generally suggests that an MCV currently evolving across KS will move across central/northern MO through the morning, before moving into parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley through the afternoon. In association with the MCV, a surface low may deepen along a front and move across parts of central MO/IL. Guidance varies regarding the strength of the surface low, enhancement to low-level shear/SRH, and magnitude of destabilization in advance of the MCV. However, in general, rich moisture and enlarged low-level hodographs will support development of a storm cluster with embedded supercells and/or mesovortices, if sufficient diurnal destabilization occurs. Tornadoes and damaging winds could accompany any organized cells/clusters. Strong-tornado potential could evolve if any supercells can be sustained within this regime. In the wake of the MCV, relatively strong heating will support at least moderate destabilization along the trailing front across parts of central/southern MO. While some weakening/veering of low-level flow is expected after the passage of the MCV, deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized development along the boundary, which could pose an all-hazards severe threat from late afternoon into the evening from south-central MO into the lower OH Valley. ...Central High Plains into the Ozarks... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over WY will move toward KS/NE later today. A 35-50 kt midlevel jet maximum attendant to this shortwave will impinge upon parts of the central and southern High Plains. An outflow-influenced front will likely extend across parts of southern KS, with moist easterly flow expected north of this boundary by late afternoon, while strong heating will occur south of the boundary. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected within the post-frontal regime from southeast WY/northeast CO into western NE/KS. Moderate buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear will support supercell development, with a threat of large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Widely scattered afternoon storm development will also be possible in the vicinity of the surface front, from northwest OK into southeast KS/southwest MO. Moderate to strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will support supercell development with initial storms along the front, with some clustering possible later in the convective evolution. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and some tornado potential could accompany the strongest afternoon/evening storms. Late tonight into early Monday morning, guidance generally suggests development of one or more upscale growing clusters, evolving from either diurnal convection, or nocturnal elevated redevelopment. Swaths of strong to severe gusts could accompany any upscale growth, though guidance varies considerably regarding the most favorable corridors late in the forecast period. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 06/21/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible from the central High Plains into the Ohio Valley, mainly this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will be possible. Some strong-tornado potential could develop across parts of Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana during the afternoon and early evening. ...Parts of MO into the Ohio Valley... An all-hazards severe threat, including some conditional strong-tornado potential, is still evident from parts of MO into the Ohio Valley later today, though uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude and most favored corridor of the greatest threat. No upgrade was made with this outlook, though greater tornado and/or wind probabilities may eventually be needed, depending on how the uncertainties are resolved. Guidance generally suggests that an MCV currently evolving across KS will move across central/northern MO through the morning, before moving into parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley through the afternoon. In association with the MCV, a surface low may deepen along a front and move across parts of central MO/IL. Guidance varies regarding the strength of the surface low, enhancement to low-level shear/SRH, and magnitude of destabilization in advance of the MCV. However, in general, rich moisture and enlarged low-level hodographs will support development of a storm cluster with embedded supercells and/or mesovortices, if sufficient diurnal destabilization occurs. Tornadoes and damaging winds could accompany any organized cells/clusters. Strong-tornado potential could evolve if any supercells can be sustained within this regime. In the wake of the MCV, relatively strong heating will support at least moderate destabilization along the trailing front across parts of central/southern MO. While some weakening/veering of low-level flow is expected after the passage of the MCV, deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized development along the boundary, which could pose an all-hazards severe threat from late afternoon into the evening from south-central MO into the lower OH Valley. ...Central High Plains into the Ozarks... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over WY will move toward KS/NE later today. A 35-50 kt midlevel jet maximum attendant to this shortwave will impinge upon parts of the central and southern High Plains. An outflow-influenced front will likely extend across parts of southern KS, with moist easterly flow expected north of this boundary by late afternoon, while strong heating will occur south of the boundary. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected within the post-frontal regime from southeast WY/northeast CO into western NE/KS. Moderate buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear will support supercell development, with a threat of large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Widely scattered afternoon storm development will also be possible in the vicinity of the surface front, from northwest OK into southeast KS/southwest MO. Moderate to strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will support supercell development with initial storms along the front, with some clustering possible later in the convective evolution. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and some tornado potential could accompany the strongest afternoon/evening storms. Late tonight into early Monday morning, guidance generally suggests development of one or more upscale growing clusters, evolving from either diurnal convection, or nocturnal elevated redevelopment. Swaths of strong to severe gusts could accompany any upscale growth, though guidance varies considerably regarding the most favorable corridors late in the forecast period. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 06/21/2026 Read more

MD 1223 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO FAR WESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1223 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Areas affected...portions of eastern Kansas into far western Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 210447Z - 210545Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Severe gusts may persist with ongoing storms for at least a few more hours as the storms exceed the eastern bounds of ongoing Severe Thunderstorm Watches 359 and 361. A downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch is being considered. DISCUSSION...A cold-pool-driven bow echo MCS (with mesovortices and a pronounced rear-inflow jet) continue to track eastward across central KS, with an uptick in convective intensities noted with line segments flanking the MCS to the northeast, at the nose of a 700 mb WAA regime. These storms are poised to continue tracking eastward amid 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE and locally lower MLCINH. Given widespread 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear (oriented normal to the MCS leading line) preceding ongoing storms and the aforementioned buoyancy, it is plausible that a severe gust threat may continue east of the bounds of Severe Thunderstorm Watches 359 and 361. This may especially be the case because MLCINH may only slowly increase in eastern KS given a very moist boundary layer, characterized by 70+ F surface dewpoints. As such, conditions are being monitored for the need of a downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38289411 37629463 37519483 37269537 37099617 37089670 37179694 37369703 39389598 39839543 39999464 39729408 39079390 38289411 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1224 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1224 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Areas affected...portions of northeast Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 210454Z - 210700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms capable of producing large hail will be possible this evening into the early morning hours. The overall limited space and time of this threat should preclude a watch. The area will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...Despite the cool nocturnal boundary layer, isolated supercell thunderstorms have developed across portions of northeast Colorado this evening. These storms are developing on the nose of an objective analyzed 70-knot upper-level jet moving across the central Rockies, and appear to be rooted around 700 millibars per RAP forecast soundings. One of these supercells produced 2.5" hail across portions of Logan County, CO, within the last hour before weakening and eventually dissipating as it moved east. A second supercell has developed to its southwest across Weld County, CO. This secondary supercell appears to have undergone a split, with the left mover remaining nearly stationary over Greeley, CO. Multi-radar, multi-sensor objective analysis of these storms suggests hail around 1.5" is possible. Although there is a lack of well defined low-level forcing mechanisms, general large-scale ascent of a moist unstable environment will support an ongoing threat of thunderstorm development this evening into the early morning hours. Steep lapse rates in the 700-500 millibar layer (around 9 C/km) will support large hail potential with any of these storms, perhaps even significant (2-2.5") hail. The overall space/time of this potential should remain fairly limited and a watch is currently not anticipated. However, should it become apparently that additional thunderstorm development is likely, a watch may be considered late this evening/overnight. ..Marsh/Smith.. 06/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU... LAT...LON 40250504 40810482 40880382 40700274 40700254 40080260 39820297 40000452 40250504 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1221 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 359...361... FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1221 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Areas affected...portions of western into central Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 359...361... Valid 210424Z - 210600Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 359, 361 continues. SUMMARY...Severe gusts will remain a concern with the ongoing MCS for at least the next few hours. DISCUSSION...A mature cold-pool-driven MCS continues to propagate southeastward across western into central KS, with several recent measured severe gusts noted. Recent KICT inbound velocity data shows that a pronounced rear-inflow jet persists with this MCS, as well as a book-end/line-end mesovortex on its northern flank. Furthermore, this MCS will continue to progress southeastward amid a highly sheared and buoyant airmass, characterized by 50 kts of effective bulk shear (oriented roughly normal to the MCS leading line) and 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE, driven by 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates. Given the highly organized storm structure and favorable ambient supporting environment, severe gusts will likely continue with this MCS for at least a few more hours. ..Squitieri.. 06/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 38120065 38409974 39679754 40019690 39989644 39489610 38679621 37789685 37189738 36779817 36539919 36579987 36840045 38120065 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1222 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 360... FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS
Mesoscale Discussion 1222 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Areas affected...portions of the Nebraska Sandhills Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 360... Valid 210430Z - 210630Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 360 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue moving east across portions of north-central Nebraska this evening. Modest instability and strong shear should maintain the MCS structure, although weak low-level lapse rates should keep any severe threat rather isolated. DISCUSSION...A north-south linear MCS has organized across portions of north-central Nebraska this evening and will continue eastward into the morning hours. The overall environment remains kinematically favorable for thunderstorm organization (effective layer shear greater than 50 knots), although the thermodynamic environment remains modest at best with between 500 to 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE along the line of storms. Additionally, low-level lapse rates continue to weaken, with 0-3 kilometer lapse rates objectively analyzed to be around 3 C/km. Thus, despite the linear MCS's organization, the elevated nature of the individual thunderstorms and the weak low-level lapse rates should limit any severe wind potential to being isolated/sporadic in nature. ..Marsh.. 06/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 43000123 43010026 40710021 40660124 40990127 41260203 41970138 43000123 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0362 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0362 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more