WW 0165 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 165
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N HOP TO
25 NNW BWG TO 40 NNE BWG TO 25 S SDF TO 25 SE SDF TO 20 SSE LEX
TO 25 E LEX TO 45 ENE LEX TO 40 ESE LUK.
..JEWELL..04/28/26
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...LMK...ILN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 165
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC001-003-009-021-031-045-049-053-057-061-079-085-087-093-099-
123-137-141-151-155-167-169-171-179-207-213-217-227-229-
280740-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ALLEN BARREN
BOYLE BUTLER CASEY
CLARK CLINTON CUMBERLAND
EDMONSON GARRARD GRAYSON
GREEN HARDIN HART
LARUE LINCOLN LOGAN
MADISON MARION MERCER
METCALFE MONROE NELSON
RUSSELL SIMPSON TAYLOR
WARREN WASHINGTON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 165 SEVERE TSTM IN KY OH 280035Z - 280800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 165
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
835 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern and Central Indiana
North-Central Kentucky
Far Western Ohio
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 835 PM
until 400 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts
and isolated hail will continue in the vicinity of the Ohio River
across far southern Indiana and north-central Kentucky.
Additionally, the line of storms approaching Indiana from the west
is expected to continue quickly eastward. Damaging gusts are
possible within this line. There is also a low-probability risk for
a brief tornado within the line as it moves eastward across Indiana
and eventually into far western Ohio.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of
Lafayette IN to 35 miles southeast of Louisville KY. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 160...WW 161...WW
162...WW 163...WW 164...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Mosier
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU INTO
MID ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong to severe storms may impact a corridor from
south of the Texas Big Bend through the north central Gulf Coast
vicinity Wednesday afternoon into evening, with additional strong
storms posing at least some risk for severe weather across the
Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic.
...Discussion...
Models still indicate that mid-level ridging will build inland
across the Canadian Rockies/Pacific Northwest through this period,
but it appears that attempts at a developing embedded high near the
Pacific Northwest coast will become suppressed by a short wave
impulse within the westerlies approaching the British Columbia
coast. Farther south, a mid-level low merging into a belt of
westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific may
accelerate toward southern California/northern Baja coastal areas,
but models continue to substantively vary concerning this motion.
A downstream subtropical high, initially centered over southern
Mexico, may undergo at least some further southwestward suppression,
but it still may maintain considerable influence as far north as
southern Texas through Texas Gulf coast Wednesday through Wednesday
night. At the same time, in higher latitudes, large-scale troughing
encompassing much of north central and northeastern North America is
forecast to continue slowly digging toward the northern/mid Atlantic
Seaboard. A broad embedded cyclonic mid-level circulation may begin
to form near/north of the Great Lakes region.
The confluent mid-level regime across and east of the Rockies will
likely support southeastward development of cool surface ridging
across much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, in the wake
of a southeastward advancing cold front. Models generally suggest
that a modest surface low evolving along this front may migrate
from the lower Ohio Valley northeastward through the lower Great
Lakes region, with a modest secondary surface low forming along a
developing warm front to the east of the Blue Ridge by late
Wednesday afternoon into evening, but there is notable spread within
the guidance concerning this evolution.
...Lower Rio Grande Valley into north central Gulf Coast...
Uncertainties abound concerning the convective potential for this
period. The continuing presence of mid-level ridging and warm
elevated mixed-layer air may be inhibitive to more than isolated
sustained thunderstorm development east of the Rio Grande River, to
the south of Del Rio, through much of Deep South Texas. Across the
upper Texas coastal plain through much of the Gulf Coast states,
conglomerate convective outflow from thunderstorm activity today
through tonight may slow destabilization ahead of the southward
advancing cold front, and there is spread concerning where this
outflow may end up by 12Z Wednesday.
Still, subtle short wave perturbations within moderate to strong
west-northwesterly mid/upper flow, near/north of the periphery of
the subtropical ridging, may provide support for thunderstorm
initiation with boundary-layer destabilization. Guidance suggests
that this may include at least pockets of moderate CAPE, sufficient
for isolated to widely scattered intense convection which could
evolve into supercells and/or small organized clusters with
potential to produce severe hail and wind.
...Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic...
Given the spread among the latest model output concerning the
initial surface frontal low migrating through the Ohio Valley, and
the developing surface troughing/warm front to the east of the Blue
Ridge, substantial uncertainty remains concerning the convective
potential for this period. Remnant convective cloud cover and rain
overspreading the region early in the day may also impede
destabilization. However, with at least weak to moderate
boundary-layer destabilization, strengthening wind fields and
forcing for ascent associated with an approaching mid-level jet
could become conducive to organized severe storm development. This
may initiate west of the Allegheny Mountains, and include potential
for evolving supercell structures, before developing to the east of
the Blue Ridge by late Wednesday afternoon into evening.
..Kerr.. 04/28/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU INTO
MID ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong to severe storms may impact a corridor from
south of the Texas Big Bend through the north central Gulf Coast
vicinity Wednesday afternoon into evening, with additional strong
storms posing at least some risk for severe weather across the
Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic.
...Discussion...
Models still indicate that mid-level ridging will build inland
across the Canadian Rockies/Pacific Northwest through this period,
but it appears that attempts at a developing embedded high near the
Pacific Northwest coast will become suppressed by a short wave
impulse within the westerlies approaching the British Columbia
coast. Farther south, a mid-level low merging into a belt of
westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific may
accelerate toward southern California/northern Baja coastal areas,
but models continue to substantively vary concerning this motion.
A downstream subtropical high, initially centered over southern
Mexico, may undergo at least some further southwestward suppression,
but it still may maintain considerable influence as far north as
southern Texas through Texas Gulf coast Wednesday through Wednesday
night. At the same time, in higher latitudes, large-scale troughing
encompassing much of north central and northeastern North America is
forecast to continue slowly digging toward the northern/mid Atlantic
Seaboard. A broad embedded cyclonic mid-level circulation may begin
to form near/north of the Great Lakes region.
The confluent mid-level regime across and east of the Rockies will
likely support southeastward development of cool surface ridging
across much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, in the wake
of a southeastward advancing cold front. Models generally suggest
that a modest surface low evolving along this front may migrate
from the lower Ohio Valley northeastward through the lower Great
Lakes region, with a modest secondary surface low forming along a
developing warm front to the east of the Blue Ridge by late
Wednesday afternoon into evening, but there is notable spread within
the guidance concerning this evolution.
...Lower Rio Grande Valley into north central Gulf Coast...
Uncertainties abound concerning the convective potential for this
period. The continuing presence of mid-level ridging and warm
elevated mixed-layer air may be inhibitive to more than isolated
sustained thunderstorm development east of the Rio Grande River, to
the south of Del Rio, through much of Deep South Texas. Across the
upper Texas coastal plain through much of the Gulf Coast states,
conglomerate convective outflow from thunderstorm activity today
through tonight may slow destabilization ahead of the southward
advancing cold front, and there is spread concerning where this
outflow may end up by 12Z Wednesday.
Still, subtle short wave perturbations within moderate to strong
west-northwesterly mid/upper flow, near/north of the periphery of
the subtropical ridging, may provide support for thunderstorm
initiation with boundary-layer destabilization. Guidance suggests
that this may include at least pockets of moderate CAPE, sufficient
for isolated to widely scattered intense convection which could
evolve into supercells and/or small organized clusters with
potential to produce severe hail and wind.
...Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic...
Given the spread among the latest model output concerning the
initial surface frontal low migrating through the Ohio Valley, and
the developing surface troughing/warm front to the east of the Blue
Ridge, substantial uncertainty remains concerning the convective
potential for this period. Remnant convective cloud cover and rain
overspreading the region early in the day may also impede
destabilization. However, with at least weak to moderate
boundary-layer destabilization, strengthening wind fields and
forcing for ascent associated with an approaching mid-level jet
could become conducive to organized severe storm development. This
may initiate west of the Allegheny Mountains, and include potential
for evolving supercell structures, before developing to the east of
the Blue Ridge by late Wednesday afternoon into evening.
..Kerr.. 04/28/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across
parts Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys this
afternoon and evening. Very large hail, swaths of damaging wind, and
a few tornadoes are possible.
...Synopsis...
A series of mid-level troughs, embedded within a broader
low-amplitude mid-level flow regime, will traverse the central U.S.
today. A surface low and associated cold front will continue to
progress across the OH Valley toward the East Coast during the day.
However, the approach of another mid-level trough over the Ozark
Valley region will encourage either a weak surface low or surface
trough to develop over central TX. This will stall the southward
progression of the surface cold front given appreciable low-level
warm-air/moisture advection. Seasonally cold air aloft and
accompanying upper support from multiple embedded mid-level
perturbations will overspread the warm-air advection regime,
supporting several rounds of thunderstorms. Given strong vertical
wind shear over the warm sector, severe storms are likely,
especially over portions of the southern Plains toward the TN
Valley.
...Portions of northern TX into the TN Valley...
A complex severe weather scenario is expected across TX into the TN
Valley through the period, with multiple rounds of severe
thunderstorms likely. The first round of storms is currently
initiating over western TX, and may increase in coverage between
12-18Z across central OK into northern TX as a lead mid-level
impulse traverses a WAA regime. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates amid
50+ kts of effective bulk shear will support elevated multicells
capable of producing severe hail. These storms will progress across
the MS Valley through the day. Some guidance indicates that these
storms may evolve into an MCS by afternoon, accompanied by a
damaging gust threat over the Gulf coast states.
Regardless of the evolution of earlier storms, guidance consensus
depicts adequate clearing behind this initial wave over TX into the
Ozark Valley region. Strong surface heating will encourage surface
temperatures to reach 90 F in some locales, amid 70+ F surface
dewpoints. Given 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE should reach
the 2500-4000 J/kg range by mid to late afternoon. By this time, the
primary mid-level trough will overspread the southern Plains,
promoting enough deep-layer ascent for another round of storms to
initiate. Given 50 kts of effective bulk shear and initially
straight hodographs, supercells are expected, accompanied by a
severe hail threat. The most intense supercells may develop over
northern TX and progress eastward, and will be capable of producing
severe hail as large as 3-4 inches in diameter. Given a lingering
low-level jet (supporting elongated hodographs with some low-level
curvature) over the Sabine River Valley, a few dominant/right-moving
supercells may produce a few tornadoes, though the tornado threat
will be conditional on adequate boundary-layer
mixing/destabilization. Later in the afternoon/early evening, severe
hail/isolated tornado producing supercells may merge into an MCS,
accompanied by a severe wind threat across the Lower MS Valley.
...Portions of central into southern TX...
Forcing for ascent will be weak across portions of central into
southwestern TX. Nonetheless, 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will
overspread a well-mixed boundary layer. Tropospheric speed shear
exceeding 40 kts will yield elongated hodographs, so any storm that
can initiate, mature, and sustain itself should be supercellular in
nature, accompanied by a severe hail threat. Any instance of hail
with these storms may include stones exceeding 2 inches in diameter.
Since a second, low-amplitude mid-level impulse will overspread
western and central TX toward the end of the period, isolated
supercell initiation will be possible across portions of central
into southwestern TX late this afternoon into early (12Z) Wednesday
morning.
..Squitieri/Moore.. 04/28/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across
parts Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys this
afternoon and evening. Very large hail, swaths of damaging wind, and
a few tornadoes are possible.
...Synopsis...
A series of mid-level troughs, embedded within a broader
low-amplitude mid-level flow regime, will traverse the central U.S.
today. A surface low and associated cold front will continue to
progress across the OH Valley toward the East Coast during the day.
However, the approach of another mid-level trough over the Ozark
Valley region will encourage either a weak surface low or surface
trough to develop over central TX. This will stall the southward
progression of the surface cold front given appreciable low-level
warm-air/moisture advection. Seasonally cold air aloft and
accompanying upper support from multiple embedded mid-level
perturbations will overspread the warm-air advection regime,
supporting several rounds of thunderstorms. Given strong vertical
wind shear over the warm sector, severe storms are likely,
especially over portions of the southern Plains toward the TN
Valley.
...Portions of northern TX into the TN Valley...
A complex severe weather scenario is expected across TX into the TN
Valley through the period, with multiple rounds of severe
thunderstorms likely. The first round of storms is currently
initiating over western TX, and may increase in coverage between
12-18Z across central OK into northern TX as a lead mid-level
impulse traverses a WAA regime. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates amid
50+ kts of effective bulk shear will support elevated multicells
capable of producing severe hail. These storms will progress across
the MS Valley through the day. Some guidance indicates that these
storms may evolve into an MCS by afternoon, accompanied by a
damaging gust threat over the Gulf coast states.
Regardless of the evolution of earlier storms, guidance consensus
depicts adequate clearing behind this initial wave over TX into the
Ozark Valley region. Strong surface heating will encourage surface
temperatures to reach 90 F in some locales, amid 70+ F surface
dewpoints. Given 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE should reach
the 2500-4000 J/kg range by mid to late afternoon. By this time, the
primary mid-level trough will overspread the southern Plains,
promoting enough deep-layer ascent for another round of storms to
initiate. Given 50 kts of effective bulk shear and initially
straight hodographs, supercells are expected, accompanied by a
severe hail threat. The most intense supercells may develop over
northern TX and progress eastward, and will be capable of producing
severe hail as large as 3-4 inches in diameter. Given a lingering
low-level jet (supporting elongated hodographs with some low-level
curvature) over the Sabine River Valley, a few dominant/right-moving
supercells may produce a few tornadoes, though the tornado threat
will be conditional on adequate boundary-layer
mixing/destabilization. Later in the afternoon/early evening, severe
hail/isolated tornado producing supercells may merge into an MCS,
accompanied by a severe wind threat across the Lower MS Valley.
...Portions of central into southern TX...
Forcing for ascent will be weak across portions of central into
southwestern TX. Nonetheless, 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will
overspread a well-mixed boundary layer. Tropospheric speed shear
exceeding 40 kts will yield elongated hodographs, so any storm that
can initiate, mature, and sustain itself should be supercellular in
nature, accompanied by a severe hail threat. Any instance of hail
with these storms may include stones exceeding 2 inches in diameter.
Since a second, low-amplitude mid-level impulse will overspread
western and central TX toward the end of the period, isolated
supercell initiation will be possible across portions of central
into southwestern TX late this afternoon into early (12Z) Wednesday
morning.
..Squitieri/Moore.. 04/28/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper level shortwave trough will traverse the Midwest into
the Ohio Valley as an attendant surface low approaches the
Mid-Atlantic. A trailing cold front will progress east of the
Appalachians extending into the Southeast by Wednesday afternoon.
Dry westerly flow south of the advancing cold front is expected to
increase fire weather concerns for portions of southern GA and
northern FL where fuels remain dry. Enhanced mid-level westerly flow
ahead of an approaching Pacific trough will bolster a continued
downslope regime across the Southwest. With preceding days of
fire-effective weather conditions and receptive fuels, fire weather
concerns will persist over central NM to far eastern AZ on
Wednesday.
...Southwest...
Persistent westerly mid-level flow and developing lee-surface
troughing will promote dry and breezy conditions across eastern AZ
into central NM. While winds are fairly marginal compared to
previous days, widespread westerly winds of 15-20 mph and RH of less
than 15 percent amid dry fuels will support Elevated fire weather
conditions on Wednesday afternoon.
...Southern Georgia and northern Florida...
Beneath the upper level trough, a deepening surface low over the
Mid-Atlantic will enhance southwest to westerly surface winds across
much of the Southeast. An Elevated fire weather threat exists where
delayed Gulf moisture return amid an existing dry boundary layer is
expected to support minimum RH reductions of 25-35 percent (locally
less than 25 percent) across portions of southern GA into northern
FL by Wednesday afternoon. However, precipitation appears likely
along a southward progressing cold front through central GA. Fire
weather highlights may be adjusted in future outlooks as forecast
guidance aligns in the location/extent of the cold front and
rainfall amounts.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/28/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper level shortwave trough will traverse the Midwest into
the Ohio Valley as an attendant surface low approaches the
Mid-Atlantic. A trailing cold front will progress east of the
Appalachians extending into the Southeast by Wednesday afternoon.
Dry westerly flow south of the advancing cold front is expected to
increase fire weather concerns for portions of southern GA and
northern FL where fuels remain dry. Enhanced mid-level westerly flow
ahead of an approaching Pacific trough will bolster a continued
downslope regime across the Southwest. With preceding days of
fire-effective weather conditions and receptive fuels, fire weather
concerns will persist over central NM to far eastern AZ on
Wednesday.
...Southwest...
Persistent westerly mid-level flow and developing lee-surface
troughing will promote dry and breezy conditions across eastern AZ
into central NM. While winds are fairly marginal compared to
previous days, widespread westerly winds of 15-20 mph and RH of less
than 15 percent amid dry fuels will support Elevated fire weather
conditions on Wednesday afternoon.
...Southern Georgia and northern Florida...
Beneath the upper level trough, a deepening surface low over the
Mid-Atlantic will enhance southwest to westerly surface winds across
much of the Southeast. An Elevated fire weather threat exists where
delayed Gulf moisture return amid an existing dry boundary layer is
expected to support minimum RH reductions of 25-35 percent (locally
less than 25 percent) across portions of southern GA into northern
FL by Wednesday afternoon. However, precipitation appears likely
along a southward progressing cold front through central GA. Fire
weather highlights may be adjusted in future outlooks as forecast
guidance aligns in the location/extent of the cold front and
rainfall amounts.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/28/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
WESTERN TEXAS...
...Synopsis...
As a low pressure system off the West Coast slowly approaches Baja
CA, a mid/upper shortwave trough over the Southwest will traverse
the High Plains encouraging strong westerly mid-level flow. Fire
weather conditions will continue for portions of western NM into the
southern Plains as a result of downslope warming and boundary layer
mixing. A deepening surface low will pass over the Great Lakes
region into southern Ontario, assisting in the breakdown of upper
ridging along the Eastern Seaboard. Increasing low-level southerly
flow ahead of an incoming trough and associated cold front will
allow for fire weather concerns to emerge in Upstate NY and western
VT amid a very dry airmass.
...Southern Plains...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue this
afternoon where a dry airmass and strong winds overlap a region of
receptive fuels. Widespread west to southwest winds of 15-20 mph
coupled with RH falling to 10-20 percent atop a dry fuelscape will
increase fire spread potential for any new and/or ongoing wildfires.
More intense wind belts of 20-25 mph aligning with RH reductions
close to 10 percent yield Critical fire weather conditions across
east-central and southeastern NM into adjacent portions of TX.
...Upstate New York and Western Vermont...
As surface pressure gradients tighten surrounding a surface low
positioned over central/eastern Ontario, southerly winds are
expected to reach 10-15 mph with localized/terrain enhanced 20 mph
corridors likely. Mid-upper level cloud cover will increase this
morning through the afternoon hours, potentially limiting deeper
mixing. However, RH of 25-35 percent (locally near 20 percent) are
still expected by early afternoon. These dry and breezy conditions
will align amid dry fuels to promote an Elevated fire weather threat
across upstate NY and western VT.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/28/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
WESTERN TEXAS...
...Synopsis...
As a low pressure system off the West Coast slowly approaches Baja
CA, a mid/upper shortwave trough over the Southwest will traverse
the High Plains encouraging strong westerly mid-level flow. Fire
weather conditions will continue for portions of western NM into the
southern Plains as a result of downslope warming and boundary layer
mixing. A deepening surface low will pass over the Great Lakes
region into southern Ontario, assisting in the breakdown of upper
ridging along the Eastern Seaboard. Increasing low-level southerly
flow ahead of an incoming trough and associated cold front will
allow for fire weather concerns to emerge in Upstate NY and western
VT amid a very dry airmass.
...Southern Plains...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue this
afternoon where a dry airmass and strong winds overlap a region of
receptive fuels. Widespread west to southwest winds of 15-20 mph
coupled with RH falling to 10-20 percent atop a dry fuelscape will
increase fire spread potential for any new and/or ongoing wildfires.
More intense wind belts of 20-25 mph aligning with RH reductions
close to 10 percent yield Critical fire weather conditions across
east-central and southeastern NM into adjacent portions of TX.
...Upstate New York and Western Vermont...
As surface pressure gradients tighten surrounding a surface low
positioned over central/eastern Ontario, southerly winds are
expected to reach 10-15 mph with localized/terrain enhanced 20 mph
corridors likely. Mid-upper level cloud cover will increase this
morning through the afternoon hours, potentially limiting deeper
mixing. However, RH of 25-35 percent (locally near 20 percent) are
still expected by early afternoon. These dry and breezy conditions
will align amid dry fuels to promote an Elevated fire weather threat
across upstate NY and western VT.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/28/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
MD 0586 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 162...166... FOR NORTHERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0586
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1009 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026
Areas affected...northern Arkansas...southeast Missouri...and far
western Kentucky
Concerning...Tornado Watch 162...166...
Valid 280309Z - 280515Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 162, 166 continues.
SUMMARY...A transition to a mix of convective modes is ongoing.
While the potential for severe hail may be decreasing, the threat
for tornadoes and severe winds continues.
DISCUSSION...Regional reflectivity data shows gradual upscale growth
across north-central AR as new convection develops along a cold
front. Initially semi-discrete supercells across southern MO have
recently shown some signs of weakening and/or poor organization -
likely the result of being displaced behind an outflow boundary,
which is becoming more apparent in velocity imagery. Further
southwest, convective clusters and semi-discrete supercells continue
to develop across north-central AR.
This activity continues to spread east into a very favorable
environment for organized convection with KLZK and KNQA VWPs now
sampling 0-1 km SRH between 450-500 m2/s2. The loss of discrete
supercells should modulate the potential for very large hail to some
degree, but even with a transition to a mix of convective bands and
embedded supercells, the environment will support the potential for
tornadoes (potentially strong) and swaths of severe winds. Latest
high-res guidance, including recent WoFS ensemble runs, suggest that
the greatest tornado/severe wind threat will reside across northern
AR and southeast MO into adjacent portions of IL, TN, and KY over
the next couple of hours.
..Moore.. 04/28/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...
LAT...LON 35589323 35979196 36579075 37248981 37388945 37428916
37348889 37138874 36748881 36338905 36068936 35848966
35589025 35459097 35319285 35329311 35489325 35589323
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
MD 0587 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0587
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026
Areas affected...Middle Tennessee into southern Kentucky
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 280331Z - 280530Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Shallow elevated convection across Middle Tennessee has
shown some signs of deepening over the past 30 minutes. If this
trend continues, a severe threat may materialize in the coming
hours. Convective trends are being monitored for possible watch
issuance.
DISCUSSION...Recent radar and GOES IR imagery depicts shallow
convection over Middle TN with some vertical development noted over
the past 30 minutes. Based on observed cell motions, proximity
forecast soundings, and recent RAP upper-air analyses, this activity
is likely being driven by strengthening warm-air advection between
the 925-850 mb levels. Veering through this layer has drastically
increasing over the past 1-2 hours per KOHX and KHPX VWPs, which
supports the idea that this recent development is driven by
low-level isentropic ascent.
Although buoyancy generally decreases with eastward extent (where
dewpoints fall off into the 50s), a pocket of low to mid 60s
dewpoints exists immediately downstream of this activity and
outlines where buoyancy is likely favorable for continued
intensification. If further intensification occurs, maturing
convection may fully realize the favorable convective environment
and could pose a downstream severe threat, including the potential
for large hail and tornadoes. Modest synoptic-scale ascent away from
the primary boundaries casts some uncertainty on this scenario, but
trends are being monitored for the need for watch issuance.
..Moore/Mosier.. 04/28/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 35178822 35398842 35678837 36328783 37318682 37508648
37578600 37548553 37468519 37248505 37038504 36768520
36378550 35878584 35478621 35238656 35078690 35008745
35028785 35178822
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
WW 0165 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 165
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW BMG
TO 40 ESE BMG TO 40 SE IND TO 50 NW LUK TO 40 N DAY.
..LEITMAN..04/28/26
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...LMK...ILN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 165
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC019-025-029-031-037-043-047-061-077-079-115-117-123-137-143-
155-161-175-280540-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK CRAWFORD DEARBORN
DECATUR DUBOIS FLOYD
FRANKLIN HARRISON JEFFERSON
JENNINGS OHIO ORANGE
PERRY RIPLEY SCOTT
SWITZERLAND UNION WASHINGTON
KYC005-015-017-023-027-029-037-041-049-067-073-077-079-081-091-
093-097-103-111-113-117-151-163-167-179-181-185-187-191-201-209-
211-215-223-229-239-280540-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BOONE BOURBON
BRACKEN BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT
CAMPBELL CARROLL CLARK
FAYETTE FRANKLIN GALLATIN
Read more
WW 0167 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 167
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW POF
TO 10 ESE CGI TO 40 SE MVN TO 35 S BMG.
..LEITMAN..04/28/26
ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...PAH...OHX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 167
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC033-059-077-280540-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLBERT FRANKLIN LAUDERDALE
ARC021-031-035-037-055-077-093-107-111-123-280540-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN
CROSS GREENE LEE
MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS POINSETT
ST. FRANCIS
ILC003-059-069-087-127-151-153-165-280540-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER GALLATIN HARDIN
Read more
WW 0166 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 166
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E FSM TO
15 E FLP TO 35 ESE UNO.
..LEITMAN..04/28/26
ATTN...WFO...LZK...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 166
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC023-029-045-051-059-063-065-067-075-083-085-095-097-105-113-
115-117-119-121-125-127-135-137-141-145-147-149-280540-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLEBURNE CONWAY FAULKNER
GARLAND HOT SPRING INDEPENDENCE
IZARD JACKSON LAWRENCE
LOGAN LONOKE MONROE
MONTGOMERY PERRY POLK
POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI
RANDOLPH SALINE SCOTT
SHARP STONE VAN BUREN
WHITE WOODRUFF YELL
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 166 TORNADO AR 280120Z - 280900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 166
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
820 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northern and Central Arkansas
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 820 PM
until 400 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter likely
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this evening
across northern and central Arkansas. A strongly unstable airmass is
in place, with strong deep-layer vertical shear over the region as
well. The environmental conditions will support the development of
supercells capable of all severe hazards, including large hail and
tornadoes. Strengthening low-level flow over the next few hours
could result in an environment that supports strong to intense
tornadoes.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
east and west of a line from 30 miles northeast of Flippin AR to 35
miles south southwest of Little Rock AR. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 160...WW 161...WW
162...WW 163...WW 164...WW 165...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 27035.
...Mosier
Read more
WW 0164 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 164
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE GYI
TO 30 NNE PRX TO 10 ENE HRO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0585
..MOORE..04/28/26
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SHV...FWD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 164
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC061-081-091-133-280340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HOWARD LITTLE RIVER MILLER
SEVIER
OKC089-280340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
TXC037-063-067-085-113-119-139-147-159-183-203-213-223-231-257-
277-315-343-379-387-397-423-439-449-459-467-499-280340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more
MD 0581 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL IN INTO CENTRAL KY
Mesoscale Discussion 0581
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0709 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026
Areas affected...central IN into central KY
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 280009Z - 280145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase this evening
across central Indiana into central Kentucky. A watch will be needed
soon.
DISCUSSION...A messy convective evolution is occurring across the
region this evening. Strong to severe storms near the OH River in
southern IN/north-central KY have left a relative minimum in MLCAPE
to the north, though MUCAPE and moderate vertical shear remain
sufficient for severe storms across the area. Some improvement of
the boundary layer could occur with time as warm advection and a
strengthening low-level jet overspread the region. However, it
remains unclear how much of a tornado risk may accompany the QLCS
shifting east across IL as it impinges on this more marginal and
convectively contaminated environment. Given an influx of better
upstream moisture with time and a favorable kinematic environment,
one or more watches are likely across the region.
..Leitman/Mosier.. 04/28/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...
LAT...LON 40598751 40408581 39868541 38808466 38028459 37558488
37318580 37718654 38578712 39238748 40598751
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
MD 0582 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0582
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0723 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026
Areas affected...central to northern Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 280023Z - 280230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The threat for severe hail, wind, and tornadoes will
likely increase in the coming hours for portions of northern, and
perhaps central, Arkansas. Watch issuance is likely.
DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar mosaics and surface observations
show convection continuing to develop along a weak leading cold
front/outflow boundary across southern MO and far northwest AR. Over
the next few of hours, additional development along the front is
anticipated as the boundary pushes into a buoyancy axis featuring
MLCAPE values of 3500-4000 J/kg and as a reinforcing cold front
overtakes the convective band.
Pre-frontal convection appears possible based on the recent failed
attempt at initiation near Fort Smith, AR. However, a 22 UTC ACARs
sounding from LZK sampled lingering inhibition, which has not been
captured well by recent high-res guidance. Consequently, the
confidence in the development of discrete, pre-frontal supercells is
limited.
Nonetheless, some severe risk will likely materialize at least
across north-central AR in the coming hours. Storm modes will likely
feature a combination of organized clusters and embedded supercells
given focused frontal ascent, strong deep-layer wind shear, and
nearly 300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH (sampled by the KLZK and KNQA VWPs). All
convective hazards will be possible with this activity, though the
potential for significant tornadoes may be most pronounced with any
pre-frontal supercells that can develop. Watch issuance appears
probable for portions of the area as convection migrates eastward.
..Moore/Mosier.. 04/28/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...
LAT...LON 36379330 36489292 36489146 36339122 36149112 35879118
34989193 34779227 34579266 34529304 34549354 34659387
34909402 35199392 35559374 36199346 36379330
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
MD 0583 CONCERNING TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 160...162...163...165... FOR WEST-CENTRAL IN...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL...EAST-CENTRAL MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0583
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0808 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026
Areas affected...west-central IN...central/southern
IL...east-central MO
Concerning...Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Watches
160...162...163...165...
Valid 280108Z - 280245Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm
Watches 160, 162, 163, 165 continues.
SUMMARY...Damaging wind threat increasing as a organized QLCS
advances eastward through the evening. Some QLCS tornado risk may
continue across parts of central/southern IL into east-central MO.
DISCUSSION...A well-developed QLCS extending from west-central IN
through central IL into east-central MO will continue eastward
through the evening. As this line has become better organized as it
moves into an axis of moderate to strong instability overlapping a
40+ kt low level jet, swaths of damaging winds will be possible.
Additionally, low-level shear remains favorable (0-1 km SRH greater
than 300 m2/s2) for tornadoes and a few QLCS mesovortex tornadoes
will also be possible. New watch issuance or local extension of
existing tornado watches will likely be needed soon.
..Leitman.. 04/28/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...
LAT...LON 39898874 40458762 40438704 40288675 39978665 39638668
38938720 38338789 37728897 37389007 37499079 37709128
38109089 39898874
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
