WW 0102 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 101
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SW JCT TO
60 ENE JCT TO 55 SE BWD TO 25 NW SEP TO 40 S SPS.
..BROYLES..04/12/26
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 101
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-027-031-035-053-099-143-145-171-193-209-221-237-259-265-
281-299-309-331-363-367-425-453-491-120840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA BELL BLANCO
BOSQUE BURNET CORYELL
ERATH FALLS GILLESPIE
HAMILTON HAYS HOOD
JACK KENDALL KERR
LAMPASAS LLANO MCLENNAN
MILAM PALO PINTO PARKER
SOMERVELL TRAVIS WILLIAMSON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night from
the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes. Large to very large hail, a
few tornadoes (some strong), and damaging wind gusts will be
possible, particularly across parts of eastern Iowa, northern
Illinois, and southern Wisconsin. Additional strong storms, mainly
producing strong wind gusts, will be possible across parts of the
Northeast.
...Synopsis...
The western US trough will eject across the Four Corners region into
the Intermountain West, with strong southwesterly flow overspreading
the Rockies into the central/southern Plains and Upper Midwest. A
shortwave trough will pivot through this flow across the Upper
Midwest through the period. A surface low will be centered over the
Mid-MO Valley for much of the period, with a warm front extending
east/northeast from north-central IA into southern WI and central
Lower MI. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southwest across eastern
KS into western TX. These features will be the focus of scattered
thunderstorm development through the afternoon and evening.
...Mid-Missouri Valley and Great Lakes Region...
Strong daytime heating is expected along and south of the warm from
north-central IA into southern WI and lower MI Tuesday afternoon.
This in combination with dew points in the low to mid 60s will yield
moderate to strong instability (with MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg).
Scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop around 20z. Given deep
layer shear around 40 kts, storm mode will be supercellular.
Initially, low-level shear will be marginal, with generally straight
and elongated hodographs. In addition, northeasterly storm motions
will favor crossing the warm front to the cool side of the boundary.
This will make the primary threat large to very large hail (some
2-3+ inches in diameter). With time, and as the low-level jet
increases during the evening, convection may consolidate/grow
upscale into one or more bowing segments and progress eastward into
Lower MI/IN/OH, posing a continued risk for hail and an increasing
risk for damaging wind gusts.
As the strengthening 850-700 mb low-level jet axis will nudge into
central IA/northern MO/northern IL, it will usher in a plume of
steep low to mid-level lapse rates and enlarge low-level hodographs,
increasing tornado potential. While there remains some uncertainty,
there is signal within hi-res guidance from the HREF for sustained
UH tracks south of the warm front. CAM guidance varies on how the
scenario will play out. As mentioned above, a few CAM solutions
favor clustering/linear development by the evening. Should a more
discrete supercell or two be able to root along or south of the
boundary, a few tornadoes will be possible (some strong EF2+).
Nonetheless, even with a more linear mode increasing low-level shear
will favor and increasing chance for line embedded tornadoes.
...Southern Plains into eastern Kansas/western Missouri...
Thunderstorm development is likely along the dryline across the
southern Plains Tuesday afternoon. Strong capping with remain
through most of the morning, but strong heating and convergence
along the dryline favor at least isolated thunderstorm development
by around 19-20z. The environment ahead of the dryline will be
characterized by moderate to strong instability, steep lapse rates,
and favorable deep layer shear profiles to support supercells. Large
to very large hail (1-2+ inches in diameter), damaging winds, and
perhaps a tornado.
...Northeast...
Rounds of thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and
evening within a warm advection regime. MLCAPE should increase to
around 1000 J/kg within a moistening low-level air mass. Strong
deep-layer westerly flow and steepening low-level lapse rates will
support isolated strong wind gusts across the region.
..Thornton.. 04/13/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night from
the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes. Large to very large hail, a
few tornadoes (some strong), and damaging wind gusts will be
possible, particularly across parts of eastern Iowa, northern
Illinois, and southern Wisconsin. Additional strong storms, mainly
producing strong wind gusts, will be possible across parts of the
Northeast.
...Synopsis...
The western US trough will eject across the Four Corners region into
the Intermountain West, with strong southwesterly flow overspreading
the Rockies into the central/southern Plains and Upper Midwest. A
shortwave trough will pivot through this flow across the Upper
Midwest through the period. A surface low will be centered over the
Mid-MO Valley for much of the period, with a warm front extending
east/northeast from north-central IA into southern WI and central
Lower MI. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southwest across eastern
KS into western TX. These features will be the focus of scattered
thunderstorm development through the afternoon and evening.
...Mid-Missouri Valley and Great Lakes Region...
Strong daytime heating is expected along and south of the warm from
north-central IA into southern WI and lower MI Tuesday afternoon.
This in combination with dew points in the low to mid 60s will yield
moderate to strong instability (with MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg).
Scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop around 20z. Given deep
layer shear around 40 kts, storm mode will be supercellular.
Initially, low-level shear will be marginal, with generally straight
and elongated hodographs. In addition, northeasterly storm motions
will favor crossing the warm front to the cool side of the boundary.
This will make the primary threat large to very large hail (some
2-3+ inches in diameter). With time, and as the low-level jet
increases during the evening, convection may consolidate/grow
upscale into one or more bowing segments and progress eastward into
Lower MI/IN/OH, posing a continued risk for hail and an increasing
risk for damaging wind gusts.
As the strengthening 850-700 mb low-level jet axis will nudge into
central IA/northern MO/northern IL, it will usher in a plume of
steep low to mid-level lapse rates and enlarge low-level hodographs,
increasing tornado potential. While there remains some uncertainty,
there is signal within hi-res guidance from the HREF for sustained
UH tracks south of the warm front. CAM guidance varies on how the
scenario will play out. As mentioned above, a few CAM solutions
favor clustering/linear development by the evening. Should a more
discrete supercell or two be able to root along or south of the
boundary, a few tornadoes will be possible (some strong EF2+).
Nonetheless, even with a more linear mode increasing low-level shear
will favor and increasing chance for line embedded tornadoes.
...Southern Plains into eastern Kansas/western Missouri...
Thunderstorm development is likely along the dryline across the
southern Plains Tuesday afternoon. Strong capping with remain
through most of the morning, but strong heating and convergence
along the dryline favor at least isolated thunderstorm development
by around 19-20z. The environment ahead of the dryline will be
characterized by moderate to strong instability, steep lapse rates,
and favorable deep layer shear profiles to support supercells. Large
to very large hail (1-2+ inches in diameter), damaging winds, and
perhaps a tornado.
...Northeast...
Rounds of thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and
evening within a warm advection regime. MLCAPE should increase to
around 1000 J/kg within a moistening low-level air mass. Strong
deep-layer westerly flow and steepening low-level lapse rates will
support isolated strong wind gusts across the region.
..Thornton.. 04/13/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Valid 131630Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...FAR NORTHERN IOWA...AND PARTS OF WISCONSIN...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across the Upper Mississippi Valley
and Great Lakes region with potential for large to very large hail,
damaging wind, and tornadoes, mainly late this afternoon into
tonight. A more isolated risk for severe storms is possible across
portions of the southern Plains late this afternoon and evening.
...Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes including MN/WI/IA...
Multiple lead mid-level disturbances over the northern High Plains
will progress northeastward today toward the Upper Midwest, with
strengthening winds aloft across this region particularly late today
and tonight. A surface low will tend to deepen/develop
east-northeastward from northeast Nebraska into far southern
Minnesota and Wisconsin by tonight in vicinity of a
slow-moving/stalled frontal boundary. Low/middle 60s F surface
dewpoints will advect north-northeastward and become increasingly
prevalent along/south of the aforementioned stationary/warm front
this afternoon. MLCAPE values are forecast to reach 2000-2500 J/kg
by around 21z/4pm CDT.
Thunderstorm development will become increasingly probable through
mid/late afternoon (21-00z) as isentropic ascent strengthens ahead
of the approaching upper disturbance. This should especially be the
case near the primary boundary. However, semi-discrete warm sector
supercellular development, across areas such as southern Wisconsin,
cannot be ruled out. Lingering inhibition coupled with 45-50 kt
effective bulk shear should promote initially discrete supercells.
Hodograph elongation appears favorable for a large hail threat,
possibly as large as 2-3 inches in diameter with the more robust
cells. Additionally, enhanced low-level SRH along the frontal zone
is expected to result in a corridor of relatively higher tornado
potential for storms that can remain rooted immediately along the
boundary.
While the overall environment appears very favorable for intense
convection/supercells, east-northeasterly storm motions along or
just north of the warm front will likely promote clustering/upscale
growth through the evening, with an increasing damaging wind
potential and a continued tornado risk via line-embedded
circulations.
...Northern Illinois/northern Indiana and southern Lake Michigan...
See Mesoscale Discussion 395 for short-term details. There is the
potential that a somewhat separate corridor of severe-weather
potential today, potentially via a subtle mid-level wave and morning
convection across northeast Missouri/northwest Illinois vicinity
and/or additional development later today. The initially elevated
storms are on the edge of the east/northeastward-advecting elevated
mixed layer. Steep mid-level lapse rates and 35+ kt effective shear
could support initially isolated hail potential, but a more
organized surface-based severe risk could materialize later this
afternoon, although the specific details remain uncertain.
...Southern Plains including Oklahoma/Texas...
Confidence/potential for isolated to widely scattered locally
intense storms later this afternoon has incrementally increased,
although specifics regarding the extent of convective initiation are
still uncertain.
A moist and potentially unstable air mass will persist regionally to
the east of a dryline located around peak heating from east-central
Kansas south-southwestward into west-central Oklahoma and western
north Texas to the Texas Big Bend vicinity. Immediately east of the
dryline, warm-sector dewpoints are expected to generally be in the
middle 60s F, supporting MLCAPE values to 2500-3000 J/kg. A subtle
disturbance over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies could
approach the dryline/warm sector later today.
Regardless, ample post-dryline mixing and near-dryline
confluence/weak convergence should be sufficient for isolated deep
convective initiation after 21z/4pm CDT. Forecast mass fields and
some short-term guidance would imply that this is most probable
across central/southwest Oklahoma into the north Texas Big Country,
and perhaps somewhat separately across the Texas Big Bend and Rio
Grande vicinity.
If/where storms develop and mature, deep-layer shear on the order of
40+ kt will support supercells, potentially capable of all hazards
including very large hail.
...Northern High Plains...
Generally isolated severe storms including a few low-topped
supercells capable of hail/wind are possible late this afternoon
into evening along/north of the surface front. This is where modest
low-level moisture and vertical shear will be maximized, in the
presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates.
..Guyer/Chalmers.. 04/13/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Valid 131630Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...FAR NORTHERN IOWA...AND PARTS OF WISCONSIN...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across the Upper Mississippi Valley
and Great Lakes region with potential for large to very large hail,
damaging wind, and tornadoes, mainly late this afternoon into
tonight. A more isolated risk for severe storms is possible across
portions of the southern Plains late this afternoon and evening.
...Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes including MN/WI/IA...
Multiple lead mid-level disturbances over the northern High Plains
will progress northeastward today toward the Upper Midwest, with
strengthening winds aloft across this region particularly late today
and tonight. A surface low will tend to deepen/develop
east-northeastward from northeast Nebraska into far southern
Minnesota and Wisconsin by tonight in vicinity of a
slow-moving/stalled frontal boundary. Low/middle 60s F surface
dewpoints will advect north-northeastward and become increasingly
prevalent along/south of the aforementioned stationary/warm front
this afternoon. MLCAPE values are forecast to reach 2000-2500 J/kg
by around 21z/4pm CDT.
Thunderstorm development will become increasingly probable through
mid/late afternoon (21-00z) as isentropic ascent strengthens ahead
of the approaching upper disturbance. This should especially be the
case near the primary boundary. However, semi-discrete warm sector
supercellular development, across areas such as southern Wisconsin,
cannot be ruled out. Lingering inhibition coupled with 45-50 kt
effective bulk shear should promote initially discrete supercells.
Hodograph elongation appears favorable for a large hail threat,
possibly as large as 2-3 inches in diameter with the more robust
cells. Additionally, enhanced low-level SRH along the frontal zone
is expected to result in a corridor of relatively higher tornado
potential for storms that can remain rooted immediately along the
boundary.
While the overall environment appears very favorable for intense
convection/supercells, east-northeasterly storm motions along or
just north of the warm front will likely promote clustering/upscale
growth through the evening, with an increasing damaging wind
potential and a continued tornado risk via line-embedded
circulations.
...Northern Illinois/northern Indiana and southern Lake Michigan...
See Mesoscale Discussion 395 for short-term details. There is the
potential that a somewhat separate corridor of severe-weather
potential today, potentially via a subtle mid-level wave and morning
convection across northeast Missouri/northwest Illinois vicinity
and/or additional development later today. The initially elevated
storms are on the edge of the east/northeastward-advecting elevated
mixed layer. Steep mid-level lapse rates and 35+ kt effective shear
could support initially isolated hail potential, but a more
organized surface-based severe risk could materialize later this
afternoon, although the specific details remain uncertain.
...Southern Plains including Oklahoma/Texas...
Confidence/potential for isolated to widely scattered locally
intense storms later this afternoon has incrementally increased,
although specifics regarding the extent of convective initiation are
still uncertain.
A moist and potentially unstable air mass will persist regionally to
the east of a dryline located around peak heating from east-central
Kansas south-southwestward into west-central Oklahoma and western
north Texas to the Texas Big Bend vicinity. Immediately east of the
dryline, warm-sector dewpoints are expected to generally be in the
middle 60s F, supporting MLCAPE values to 2500-3000 J/kg. A subtle
disturbance over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies could
approach the dryline/warm sector later today.
Regardless, ample post-dryline mixing and near-dryline
confluence/weak convergence should be sufficient for isolated deep
convective initiation after 21z/4pm CDT. Forecast mass fields and
some short-term guidance would imply that this is most probable
across central/southwest Oklahoma into the north Texas Big Country,
and perhaps somewhat separately across the Texas Big Bend and Rio
Grande vicinity.
If/where storms develop and mature, deep-layer shear on the order of
40+ kt will support supercells, potentially capable of all hazards
including very large hail.
...Northern High Plains...
Generally isolated severe storms including a few low-topped
supercells capable of hail/wind are possible late this afternoon
into evening along/north of the surface front. This is where modest
low-level moisture and vertical shear will be maximized, in the
presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates.
..Guyer/Chalmers.. 04/13/2026
Read more
MD 0395 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN IOWA INTO WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0395
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Areas affected...portions of extreme eastern Iowa into
western...central...and northern Illinois
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 131603Z - 131730Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Some hail (possibly over 1 inch in diameter) may occur
with gradually intensifying storms over the next few hours. It is
unclear if these storms will pose the greatest severe risk this
afternoon, or if the greater risk will occur with later storms.
DISCUSSION...850 mb troughing is underway across the Plains states
into the Midwest, with 15Z mesoanalysis showing the northeasterly
terminus of a LLJ currently positioned along the IA/IL/MO border.
Here, an 850 mb Td gradient exists, with modest WAA likely
supporting the gradual intensification of elevated convection within
this regime. The 12Z ILX observed sounding and 15Z mesoanalysis
depicts 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8-8.5 C/km range, contributing
to MUCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg. These storms are encroaching on a
region of stronger 500 mb southwesterly flow, driven by a departing
upper trough over the eastern U.S., which is resulting in 30-40 kt
of effective bulk shear ahead of the storms. If storms continue to
intensify, it is plausible that at a hail threat may materialize
over the next few hours, with some stones potentially exceeding 1
inch in diameter.
Short-range high resolution ensemble guidance is providing mixed
signals regarding the evolution of this convection. Some
deterministic CAMS show that the ongoing storms eventually
consolidate and develop into stronger supercell structures in
northern IL by afternoon. Other guidance members depict the ongoing
storms oscillating in intensity, while stronger storms develop
later. As such, there is an appreciable degree of uncertainty as to
the evolution of the longer term severe threat with these WAA
storms. All this being said, convective trends will continue to be
monitored for the need of a WW issuance.
..Squitieri/Guyer.. 04/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
LAT...LON 40829153 41349115 41809076 42269021 42318942 42178872
41918839 41478835 41028850 40608866 40238895 40058932
39988999 40039043 40249121 40829153
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Valid 131700Z - 141200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN WYOMING...SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...Southern Plains...
Critical fire weather highlights have been expanded farther east to
account for expected stronger afternoon winds and very low RH
overlapping a region of receptive fuels and exceptional fuel
loading. Current observations portray an eastward progressing
dryline into western OK, with RH already dropping to below 20
percent and sustained southwesterly winds increasing to 20 mph
behind the dryline. As cloud cover decreases this morning, deeper
mixing will encourage surface wind gusts of up 30-35 mph and
decreasing RH to less than 15 percent, heightening fire spread
concerns.
The rest of the forecast remains on track, see the previous
discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026/
...Synopsis...
Continued southwesterly flow aloft is expected today across much of
the central/southern Plains. A shortwave trough is expected to
approach the southern Plains very late in the period. A weaker
shortwave trough in the central Northern Plains will also be
present. At the surface, a broad area of low pressure will exist
east of the terrain.
...Eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and Nebraska...
The northern stream mid-level jet will be favorably timed with
afternoon heating/minimum RH. This feature, coupled with the surface
trough to the east, will drive 20-25 mph winds in eastern portions
of Wyoming and adjacent western South Dakota and Nebraska. RH will
likely fall to 10-15%. Critical fire weather is expected for a few
hours during the afternoon. Farther south into the Front Range,
winds will be weaker leading to elevated fire weather.
...Southeast Colorado and vicinity...
The position of a modest surface low in southeast Colorado will
promote surface winds of around 20 mph despite the stronger
mid-level winds lagging farther southwest. Terrain enhancement could
also lead to local corridors of stronger winds. RH of around 15% is
expected during the afternoon. These conditions will support
critical fire weather.
...Piedmont...southern Appalachians...
Dry return flow around a surface high pressure system will promote
10-15 mph winds within parts of the southern Appalachians and the
Piedmont region. RH of near 20% is possible in parts of the
Mid-Atlantic though higher values of 25-35% are expected with
southward extent. Given how dry fuels are, elevated fire weather
conditions are expected.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Valid 131700Z - 141200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN WYOMING...SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...Southern Plains...
Critical fire weather highlights have been expanded farther east to
account for expected stronger afternoon winds and very low RH
overlapping a region of receptive fuels and exceptional fuel
loading. Current observations portray an eastward progressing
dryline into western OK, with RH already dropping to below 20
percent and sustained southwesterly winds increasing to 20 mph
behind the dryline. As cloud cover decreases this morning, deeper
mixing will encourage surface wind gusts of up 30-35 mph and
decreasing RH to less than 15 percent, heightening fire spread
concerns.
The rest of the forecast remains on track, see the previous
discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026/
...Synopsis...
Continued southwesterly flow aloft is expected today across much of
the central/southern Plains. A shortwave trough is expected to
approach the southern Plains very late in the period. A weaker
shortwave trough in the central Northern Plains will also be
present. At the surface, a broad area of low pressure will exist
east of the terrain.
...Eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and Nebraska...
The northern stream mid-level jet will be favorably timed with
afternoon heating/minimum RH. This feature, coupled with the surface
trough to the east, will drive 20-25 mph winds in eastern portions
of Wyoming and adjacent western South Dakota and Nebraska. RH will
likely fall to 10-15%. Critical fire weather is expected for a few
hours during the afternoon. Farther south into the Front Range,
winds will be weaker leading to elevated fire weather.
...Southeast Colorado and vicinity...
The position of a modest surface low in southeast Colorado will
promote surface winds of around 20 mph despite the stronger
mid-level winds lagging farther southwest. Terrain enhancement could
also lead to local corridors of stronger winds. RH of around 15% is
expected during the afternoon. These conditions will support
critical fire weather.
...Piedmont...southern Appalachians...
Dry return flow around a surface high pressure system will promote
10-15 mph winds within parts of the southern Appalachians and the
Piedmont region. RH of near 20% is possible in parts of the
Mid-Atlantic though higher values of 25-35% are expected with
southward extent. Given how dry fuels are, elevated fire weather
conditions are expected.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Valid 131300Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across the Upper Mississippi Valley
and Great Lakes region with potential for large to very large hail,
damaging wind, and tornadoes, mainly late this afternoon into
tonight. A more conditional and isolated risk for severe storms is
possible across portions of the southern Plains late this afternoon
and evening.
...Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes including MN/WI...
Multiple lead mid-level disturbances over the northern High Plains
will progress northeastward today toward the Upper Midwest, with
strengthening winds aloft across this region particularly late today
and tonight. A surface low will tend to deepen/develop
east-northeastward from northeast Nebraska this morning into far
southern Minnesota and Wisconsin by tonight in vicinity of a
slow-moving/stalled frontal boundary. Low/middle 60s F surface
dewpoints will advect north-northeastward and become increasingly
prevalent along/south of the aforementioned stationary/warm front
this afternoon. MLCAPE values are forecast to reach 2000-2500 J/kg
by around 21z/4pm CDT.
Thunderstorm development will become increasingly probable through
mid/late afternoon (21-00z) as isentropic ascent strengthens ahead
of the approaching upper disturbance. Lingering inhibition coupled
with 45-50 kt effective bulk shear should promote initially discrete
supercells along or just north of the surface boundary. Hodograph
elongation appears favorable for a large hail threat, possibly as
large as 2-3 inches in diameter with the more robust cells.
Additionally, enhanced low-level SRH along the frontal zone is
expected to result in a corridor of relatively higher tornado
potential for storms that can remain rooted immediately along the
boundary.
While the overall environment appears very favorable for intense
convection/supercells, east-northeasterly storm motions along or
just north of the warm front will likely promote clustering/upscale
growth through the evening, with an increasing damaging wind
potential and a continued tornado risk via line-embedded circulation
potential.
...Northern Illinois/northern Indiana and southern Lake Michigan...
There is the potential that a somewhat separate corridor of
severe-weather potential may unfold today, potentially born out of
subtle mid-level wave and early morning convection across northeast
Missouri vicinity and/or development later today. The initially
elevated storms would be on the edge of the
east/northeastward-advecting elevated mixed layer. Steep mid-level
lapse rates and 35+ kt effective shear could support initially
isolated hail potential, but a more organized surface-based severe
risk could manifest if some of the more-aggressive early morning
short-term guidance trends materialize (HRRR/RAP/RRFS).
...Southern Plains including Oklahoma/Texas...
A moist and potentially unstable air mass will persist regionally to
the east of a dryline located around peak heating from east-central
Kansas south-southwestward into west-central Oklahoma and western
north Texas to the Texas Big Bend vicinity. Immediately east of the
dryline, warm-sector dewpoints are expected to generally be in the
middle 60s F, supporting MLCAPE values to 2500-3000 J/kg.
The extent/likelihood of sustained deep convection later today is a
key question. The primary southern-stream trough will be well
upstream over the southwest Desert, with neutral height tendencies
across the southern Plains, although early morning water vapor
imagery and derived wind data suggest that a subtle disturbance over
northern Mexico and the southern Rockies could approach the
dryline/warm sector later today.
Regardless, ample post-dryline mixing and near-dryline
confluence/weak convergence may be sufficient for deep convective
initiation after 21z/4pm CDT, at least an isolated basis. Forecast
mass fields would imply that this is most probable across
central/southwest Oklahoma into the north Texas Big Country, and
perhaps somewhat separately across the Texas Big Bend and Rio Grande
vicinity.
If/where storms develop and mature, deep-layer shear on the order of
40+ kt will support supercells, potentially capable of all hazards
including very large hail. An increased confidence in deep
convective initiation late this afternoon/early evening could
warrant focus Slight Risk delineations in subsequent Day 1 updates.
...Northern High Plains...
Generally isolated severe storms capable of hail/wind will be
possible late this afternoon into evening along/north of the surface
front where modest low-level moisture and vertical shear will be
maximized, in the presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates.
..Guyer/Broyles.. 04/13/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Valid 131300Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across the Upper Mississippi Valley
and Great Lakes region with potential for large to very large hail,
damaging wind, and tornadoes, mainly late this afternoon into
tonight. A more conditional and isolated risk for severe storms is
possible across portions of the southern Plains late this afternoon
and evening.
...Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes including MN/WI...
Multiple lead mid-level disturbances over the northern High Plains
will progress northeastward today toward the Upper Midwest, with
strengthening winds aloft across this region particularly late today
and tonight. A surface low will tend to deepen/develop
east-northeastward from northeast Nebraska this morning into far
southern Minnesota and Wisconsin by tonight in vicinity of a
slow-moving/stalled frontal boundary. Low/middle 60s F surface
dewpoints will advect north-northeastward and become increasingly
prevalent along/south of the aforementioned stationary/warm front
this afternoon. MLCAPE values are forecast to reach 2000-2500 J/kg
by around 21z/4pm CDT.
Thunderstorm development will become increasingly probable through
mid/late afternoon (21-00z) as isentropic ascent strengthens ahead
of the approaching upper disturbance. Lingering inhibition coupled
with 45-50 kt effective bulk shear should promote initially discrete
supercells along or just north of the surface boundary. Hodograph
elongation appears favorable for a large hail threat, possibly as
large as 2-3 inches in diameter with the more robust cells.
Additionally, enhanced low-level SRH along the frontal zone is
expected to result in a corridor of relatively higher tornado
potential for storms that can remain rooted immediately along the
boundary.
While the overall environment appears very favorable for intense
convection/supercells, east-northeasterly storm motions along or
just north of the warm front will likely promote clustering/upscale
growth through the evening, with an increasing damaging wind
potential and a continued tornado risk via line-embedded circulation
potential.
...Northern Illinois/northern Indiana and southern Lake Michigan...
There is the potential that a somewhat separate corridor of
severe-weather potential may unfold today, potentially born out of
subtle mid-level wave and early morning convection across northeast
Missouri vicinity and/or development later today. The initially
elevated storms would be on the edge of the
east/northeastward-advecting elevated mixed layer. Steep mid-level
lapse rates and 35+ kt effective shear could support initially
isolated hail potential, but a more organized surface-based severe
risk could manifest if some of the more-aggressive early morning
short-term guidance trends materialize (HRRR/RAP/RRFS).
...Southern Plains including Oklahoma/Texas...
A moist and potentially unstable air mass will persist regionally to
the east of a dryline located around peak heating from east-central
Kansas south-southwestward into west-central Oklahoma and western
north Texas to the Texas Big Bend vicinity. Immediately east of the
dryline, warm-sector dewpoints are expected to generally be in the
middle 60s F, supporting MLCAPE values to 2500-3000 J/kg.
The extent/likelihood of sustained deep convection later today is a
key question. The primary southern-stream trough will be well
upstream over the southwest Desert, with neutral height tendencies
across the southern Plains, although early morning water vapor
imagery and derived wind data suggest that a subtle disturbance over
northern Mexico and the southern Rockies could approach the
dryline/warm sector later today.
Regardless, ample post-dryline mixing and near-dryline
confluence/weak convergence may be sufficient for deep convective
initiation after 21z/4pm CDT, at least an isolated basis. Forecast
mass fields would imply that this is most probable across
central/southwest Oklahoma into the north Texas Big Country, and
perhaps somewhat separately across the Texas Big Bend and Rio Grande
vicinity.
If/where storms develop and mature, deep-layer shear on the order of
40+ kt will support supercells, potentially capable of all hazards
including very large hail. An increased confidence in deep
convective initiation late this afternoon/early evening could
warrant focus Slight Risk delineations in subsequent Day 1 updates.
...Northern High Plains...
Generally isolated severe storms capable of hail/wind will be
possible late this afternoon into evening along/north of the surface
front where modest low-level moisture and vertical shear will be
maximized, in the presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates.
..Guyer/Broyles.. 04/13/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Valid 131300Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across the Upper Mississippi Valley
and Great Lakes region with potential for large to very large hail,
damaging wind, and tornadoes, mainly late this afternoon into
tonight. A more conditional and isolated risk for severe storms is
possible across portions of the southern Plains late this afternoon
and evening.
...Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes including MN/WI...
Multiple lead mid-level disturbances over the northern High Plains
will progress northeastward today toward the Upper Midwest, with
strengthening winds aloft across this region particularly late today
and tonight. A surface low will tend to deepen/develop
east-northeastward from northeast Nebraska this morning into far
southern Minnesota and Wisconsin by tonight in vicinity of a
slow-moving/stalled frontal boundary. Low/middle 60s F surface
dewpoints will advect north-northeastward and become increasingly
prevalent along/south of the aforementioned stationary/warm front
this afternoon. MLCAPE values are forecast to reach 2000-2500 J/kg
by around 21z/4pm CDT.
Thunderstorm development will become increasingly probable through
mid/late afternoon (21-00z) as isentropic ascent strengthens ahead
of the approaching upper disturbance. Lingering inhibition coupled
with 45-50 kt effective bulk shear should promote initially discrete
supercells along or just north of the surface boundary. Hodograph
elongation appears favorable for a large hail threat, possibly as
large as 2-3 inches in diameter with the more robust cells.
Additionally, enhanced low-level SRH along the frontal zone is
expected to result in a corridor of relatively higher tornado
potential for storms that can remain rooted immediately along the
boundary.
While the overall environment appears very favorable for intense
convection/supercells, east-northeasterly storm motions along or
just north of the warm front will likely promote clustering/upscale
growth through the evening, with an increasing damaging wind
potential and a continued tornado risk via line-embedded circulation
potential.
...Northern Illinois/northern Indiana and southern Lake Michigan...
There is the potential that a somewhat separate corridor of
severe-weather potential may unfold today, potentially born out of
subtle mid-level wave and early morning convection across northeast
Missouri vicinity and/or development later today. The initially
elevated storms would be on the edge of the
east/northeastward-advecting elevated mixed layer. Steep mid-level
lapse rates and 35+ kt effective shear could support initially
isolated hail potential, but a more organized surface-based severe
risk could manifest if some of the more-aggressive early morning
short-term guidance trends materialize (HRRR/RAP/RRFS).
...Southern Plains including Oklahoma/Texas...
A moist and potentially unstable air mass will persist regionally to
the east of a dryline located around peak heating from east-central
Kansas south-southwestward into west-central Oklahoma and western
north Texas to the Texas Big Bend vicinity. Immediately east of the
dryline, warm-sector dewpoints are expected to generally be in the
middle 60s F, supporting MLCAPE values to 2500-3000 J/kg.
The extent/likelihood of sustained deep convection later today is a
key question. The primary southern-stream trough will be well
upstream over the southwest Desert, with neutral height tendencies
across the southern Plains, although early morning water vapor
imagery and derived wind data suggest that a subtle disturbance over
northern Mexico and the southern Rockies could approach the
dryline/warm sector later today.
Regardless, ample post-dryline mixing and near-dryline
confluence/weak convergence may be sufficient for deep convective
initiation after 21z/4pm CDT, at least an isolated basis. Forecast
mass fields would imply that this is most probable across
central/southwest Oklahoma into the north Texas Big Country, and
perhaps somewhat separately across the Texas Big Bend and Rio Grande
vicinity.
If/where storms develop and mature, deep-layer shear on the order of
40+ kt will support supercells, potentially capable of all hazards
including very large hail. An increased confidence in deep
convective initiation late this afternoon/early evening could
warrant focus Slight Risk delineations in subsequent Day 1 updates.
...Northern High Plains...
Generally isolated severe storms capable of hail/wind will be
possible late this afternoon into evening along/north of the surface
front where modest low-level moisture and vertical shear will be
maximized, in the presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates.
..Guyer/Broyles.. 04/13/2026
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Thu - Mid-South vicinity...
An upper shortwave trough will develop northeast from eastern OK/TX
to the central/southern Appalachians on Thursday. Convection is
likely to be ongoing from the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley to the ArkLaTex
region Thursday morning. This will likely temper downstream
destabilization (and overall severe risk), but a few strong storms
are possible across the Mid-South vicinity.
...Day 5/Fri - Southern Plains to Iowa...
Medium range guidance has been consistently showing an upper trough
over the western U.S. developing eastward toward the High Plains
Friday/Friday night. As this occurs, increasing deep-layer
southwesterly flow will overspread a seasonally moist and unstable
airmass. A lee low will deepen over the central/southern High
Plains, with a dryline extending across western OK/TX during the
afternoon. By evening and into the overnight hours, a cold front
will spread southeast across the central/southern Plains and Lower
MO Valley. This pattern will support a risk of severe storms across
the warm sector from OK to IA.
...Days 6-8/Sat-Mon...
Some severe risk may persist into Saturday as a surface low deepens
over the Great Lakes and the cold front from the Day 5/Friday period
continues to sweep east across the Midwest to the Lower MS Valley,
becoming oriented across the Appalachians by Sunday morning. Severe
potential may depend on how convection on Friday evolves and impacts
the downstream airmass heading into Saturday morning, resulting in
low predictability at this time. Strong surface high pressure will
build across the Plains in the wake of the cold front, and Gulf
moisture will become cut-off as the front pushes well south into the
Gulf Basin. This should bring a reprieve from severe thunderstorm
potential Sunday into Monday as surface high pressure envelops much
of the CONUS east of the Rockies by the end of the period.
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Thu - Mid-South vicinity...
An upper shortwave trough will develop northeast from eastern OK/TX
to the central/southern Appalachians on Thursday. Convection is
likely to be ongoing from the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley to the ArkLaTex
region Thursday morning. This will likely temper downstream
destabilization (and overall severe risk), but a few strong storms
are possible across the Mid-South vicinity.
...Day 5/Fri - Southern Plains to Iowa...
Medium range guidance has been consistently showing an upper trough
over the western U.S. developing eastward toward the High Plains
Friday/Friday night. As this occurs, increasing deep-layer
southwesterly flow will overspread a seasonally moist and unstable
airmass. A lee low will deepen over the central/southern High
Plains, with a dryline extending across western OK/TX during the
afternoon. By evening and into the overnight hours, a cold front
will spread southeast across the central/southern Plains and Lower
MO Valley. This pattern will support a risk of severe storms across
the warm sector from OK to IA.
...Days 6-8/Sat-Mon...
Some severe risk may persist into Saturday as a surface low deepens
over the Great Lakes and the cold front from the Day 5/Friday period
continues to sweep east across the Midwest to the Lower MS Valley,
becoming oriented across the Appalachians by Sunday morning. Severe
potential may depend on how convection on Friday evolves and impacts
the downstream airmass heading into Saturday morning, resulting in
low predictability at this time. Strong surface high pressure will
build across the Plains in the wake of the cold front, and Gulf
moisture will become cut-off as the front pushes well south into the
Gulf Basin. This should bring a reprieve from severe thunderstorm
potential Sunday into Monday as surface high pressure envelops much
of the CONUS east of the Rockies by the end of the period.
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Thu - Mid-South vicinity...
An upper shortwave trough will develop northeast from eastern OK/TX
to the central/southern Appalachians on Thursday. Convection is
likely to be ongoing from the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley to the ArkLaTex
region Thursday morning. This will likely temper downstream
destabilization (and overall severe risk), but a few strong storms
are possible across the Mid-South vicinity.
...Day 5/Fri - Southern Plains to Iowa...
Medium range guidance has been consistently showing an upper trough
over the western U.S. developing eastward toward the High Plains
Friday/Friday night. As this occurs, increasing deep-layer
southwesterly flow will overspread a seasonally moist and unstable
airmass. A lee low will deepen over the central/southern High
Plains, with a dryline extending across western OK/TX during the
afternoon. By evening and into the overnight hours, a cold front
will spread southeast across the central/southern Plains and Lower
MO Valley. This pattern will support a risk of severe storms across
the warm sector from OK to IA.
...Days 6-8/Sat-Mon...
Some severe risk may persist into Saturday as a surface low deepens
over the Great Lakes and the cold front from the Day 5/Friday period
continues to sweep east across the Midwest to the Lower MS Valley,
becoming oriented across the Appalachians by Sunday morning. Severe
potential may depend on how convection on Friday evolves and impacts
the downstream airmass heading into Saturday morning, resulting in
low predictability at this time. Strong surface high pressure will
build across the Plains in the wake of the cold front, and Gulf
moisture will become cut-off as the front pushes well south into the
Gulf Basin. This should bring a reprieve from severe thunderstorm
potential Sunday into Monday as surface high pressure envelops much
of the CONUS east of the Rockies by the end of the period.
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Thu - Mid-South vicinity...
An upper shortwave trough will develop northeast from eastern OK/TX
to the central/southern Appalachians on Thursday. Convection is
likely to be ongoing from the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley to the ArkLaTex
region Thursday morning. This will likely temper downstream
destabilization (and overall severe risk), but a few strong storms
are possible across the Mid-South vicinity.
...Day 5/Fri - Southern Plains to Iowa...
Medium range guidance has been consistently showing an upper trough
over the western U.S. developing eastward toward the High Plains
Friday/Friday night. As this occurs, increasing deep-layer
southwesterly flow will overspread a seasonally moist and unstable
airmass. A lee low will deepen over the central/southern High
Plains, with a dryline extending across western OK/TX during the
afternoon. By evening and into the overnight hours, a cold front
will spread southeast across the central/southern Plains and Lower
MO Valley. This pattern will support a risk of severe storms across
the warm sector from OK to IA.
...Days 6-8/Sat-Mon...
Some severe risk may persist into Saturday as a surface low deepens
over the Great Lakes and the cold front from the Day 5/Friday period
continues to sweep east across the Midwest to the Lower MS Valley,
becoming oriented across the Appalachians by Sunday morning. Severe
potential may depend on how convection on Friday evolves and impacts
the downstream airmass heading into Saturday morning, resulting in
low predictability at this time. Strong surface high pressure will
build across the Plains in the wake of the cold front, and Gulf
moisture will become cut-off as the front pushes well south into the
Gulf Basin. This should bring a reprieve from severe thunderstorm
potential Sunday into Monday as surface high pressure envelops much
of the CONUS east of the Rockies by the end of the period.
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTION OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail and strong wind
gusts will be possible across portions of the southern Plains toward
the Great Lakes on Wednesday afternoon and evening.
...Southern Plains to Great Lakes...
An upper trough will move from the Plains to the MS Valley vicinity
on Wednesday. As associated corridor of enhanced southwesterly
deep-layer flow will overspread a moist/unstable airmass ahead of a
surface dryline. The southern Plains portion of the dryline will not
move too much on Wednesday. However, the northern extent of this
boundary will intersect a weak surface low moving from the Lower MO
Valley toward Lake Michigan. This portion of the boundary will
advance eastward toward the MS River during the evening/overnight
hours.
Areas of showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across portions of
the region Wednesday morning. As a result, there is uncertainty
regarding how the boundary layer may recover/destabilize during the
afternoon. Nevertheless, at least pockets of moderate
destabilization (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) are expected within a
corridor along and east of the surface boundary. Effective shear
magnitudes greater than 40 kt will be sufficient for organized
convection, with large hail and strong wind gusts being the primary
hazards.
..Leitman.. 04/13/2026
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTION OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail and strong wind
gusts will be possible across portions of the southern Plains toward
the Great Lakes on Wednesday afternoon and evening.
...Southern Plains to Great Lakes...
An upper trough will move from the Plains to the MS Valley vicinity
on Wednesday. As associated corridor of enhanced southwesterly
deep-layer flow will overspread a moist/unstable airmass ahead of a
surface dryline. The southern Plains portion of the dryline will not
move too much on Wednesday. However, the northern extent of this
boundary will intersect a weak surface low moving from the Lower MO
Valley toward Lake Michigan. This portion of the boundary will
advance eastward toward the MS River during the evening/overnight
hours.
Areas of showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across portions of
the region Wednesday morning. As a result, there is uncertainty
regarding how the boundary layer may recover/destabilize during the
afternoon. Nevertheless, at least pockets of moderate
destabilization (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) are expected within a
corridor along and east of the surface boundary. Effective shear
magnitudes greater than 40 kt will be sufficient for organized
convection, with large hail and strong wind gusts being the primary
hazards.
..Leitman.. 04/13/2026
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTION OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail and strong wind
gusts will be possible across portions of the southern Plains toward
the Great Lakes on Wednesday afternoon and evening.
...Southern Plains to Great Lakes...
An upper trough will move from the Plains to the MS Valley vicinity
on Wednesday. As associated corridor of enhanced southwesterly
deep-layer flow will overspread a moist/unstable airmass ahead of a
surface dryline. The southern Plains portion of the dryline will not
move too much on Wednesday. However, the northern extent of this
boundary will intersect a weak surface low moving from the Lower MO
Valley toward Lake Michigan. This portion of the boundary will
advance eastward toward the MS River during the evening/overnight
hours.
Areas of showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across portions of
the region Wednesday morning. As a result, there is uncertainty
regarding how the boundary layer may recover/destabilize during the
afternoon. Nevertheless, at least pockets of moderate
destabilization (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) are expected within a
corridor along and east of the surface boundary. Effective shear
magnitudes greater than 40 kt will be sufficient for organized
convection, with large hail and strong wind gusts being the primary
hazards.
..Leitman.. 04/13/2026
Read more
