SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTION OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail and strong wind
gusts will be possible across portions of the southern Plains toward
the Great Lakes on Wednesday afternoon and evening.
...Southern Plains to Great Lakes...
An upper trough will move from the Plains to the MS Valley vicinity
on Wednesday. As associated corridor of enhanced southwesterly
deep-layer flow will overspread a moist/unstable airmass ahead of a
surface dryline. The southern Plains portion of the dryline will not
move too much on Wednesday. However, the northern extent of this
boundary will intersect a weak surface low moving from the Lower MO
Valley toward Lake Michigan. This portion of the boundary will
advance eastward toward the MS River during the evening/overnight
hours.
Areas of showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across portions of
the region Wednesday morning. As a result, there is uncertainty
regarding how the boundary layer may recover/destabilize during the
afternoon. Nevertheless, at least pockets of moderate
destabilization (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) are expected within a
corridor along and east of the surface boundary. Effective shear
magnitudes greater than 40 kt will be sufficient for organized
convection, with large hail and strong wind gusts being the primary
hazards.
..Leitman.. 04/13/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday
and Tuesday night from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes. Large
to very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts will be
possible, particularly across parts of eastern Iowa, northern
Illinois, and southern Wisconsin. Additional strong storms, mainly
producing strong wind gusts, will be possible across parts of the
Northeast.
...Synopsis...
A broad swath of enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will
overspread the southern High Plains to the Great Lakes on Tuesday.
An upper shortwave trough over the Great Basin will slowly pivot
east through the period, emerging over the central/southern High
Plains by Wednesday morning. A weak shortwave impulse is also
forecast to move across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. At
the surface, low pressure will be centered over the Mid-MO Valley
for much of the period, with a warm front extending east/northeast
from north-central IA into southern WI and central Lower MI.
Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southwest across eastern KS into
western TX. Ahead of these boundaries, a seasonally moist airmass
will be in place, with mid-60s dewpoints common. The aforementioned
surface boundaries will become a focus severe thunderstorm
development Tuesday afternoon into the nighttime hours.
...Mid-MS Valley and Great Lakes vicinity...
A severe risk is expected to develop by late afternoon within the
warm frontal zone from Iowa into northern IL/southern WI in a
persistent warm advection regime. While height tendencies are
forecast to remain mostly neutral, low-level convergence along the
boundary and a glancing influence from a weak shortwave impulse
migrating across the northern Plains into northern MN/Upper MI
should provide focused ascent. A southwesterly 850-700 mb jet is
also forecast to increase across the region by late afternoon into
evening. Cool temperatures aloft (around -16 C at 500 mb) and steep
midlevel lapse rates atop a moist boundary layer will support MLCAPE
around 2000-3000 J/kg amid elongated/straight hodographs. As a
result, large to very large hail will be possible with initial
supercell thunderstorms. Storm motion and southwesterly deep-layer
flow may result in convection moving to the cool side of the warm
front. Even so, elevated storms will pose a risk for significant
hail. With time, and as the low-level jet increases during the
evening, convection may consolidate/grow upscale into one or most
bowing segments and progress eastward into Lower MI/IN/OH, posing a
continued risk for hail and an increasing risk for damaging wind
gusts.
Any supercells that develop and can be sustained within the warm
sector will also pose a risk for a few tornadoes (some strong), very
large hail and damaging gusts.
...Southern Plains into eastern KS/western MO...
Moderate destabilization is forecast along the surface dryline by
afternoon. Strong heating along/just west of the dryline will
promote mixing, while low-level confluence and subtle height falls
(by 21-00z) provide sufficient forcing for ascent for isolated
thunderstorm development. Supercell wind profiles will be present
amid steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated hodographs. Large to
very large hail, locally strong wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes
will be possible. Storms should develop northward during the evening
into eastern KS and western MO as the low-level jet increases.
...Northeast...
Rounds of thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and
evening within a warm advection regime. MLCAPE should increase to
around 1000 J/kg within a moistening low-level airmass. Strong
deep-layer westerly flow and steepening low-level lapse rates will
support isolated strong wind gusts across the region.
..Leitman.. 04/13/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday
and Tuesday night from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes. Large
to very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts will be
possible, particularly across parts of eastern Iowa, northern
Illinois, and southern Wisconsin. Additional strong storms, mainly
producing strong wind gusts, will be possible across parts of the
Northeast.
...Synopsis...
A broad swath of enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will
overspread the southern High Plains to the Great Lakes on Tuesday.
An upper shortwave trough over the Great Basin will slowly pivot
east through the period, emerging over the central/southern High
Plains by Wednesday morning. A weak shortwave impulse is also
forecast to move across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. At
the surface, low pressure will be centered over the Mid-MO Valley
for much of the period, with a warm front extending east/northeast
from north-central IA into southern WI and central Lower MI.
Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southwest across eastern KS into
western TX. Ahead of these boundaries, a seasonally moist airmass
will be in place, with mid-60s dewpoints common. The aforementioned
surface boundaries will become a focus severe thunderstorm
development Tuesday afternoon into the nighttime hours.
...Mid-MS Valley and Great Lakes vicinity...
A severe risk is expected to develop by late afternoon within the
warm frontal zone from Iowa into northern IL/southern WI in a
persistent warm advection regime. While height tendencies are
forecast to remain mostly neutral, low-level convergence along the
boundary and a glancing influence from a weak shortwave impulse
migrating across the northern Plains into northern MN/Upper MI
should provide focused ascent. A southwesterly 850-700 mb jet is
also forecast to increase across the region by late afternoon into
evening. Cool temperatures aloft (around -16 C at 500 mb) and steep
midlevel lapse rates atop a moist boundary layer will support MLCAPE
around 2000-3000 J/kg amid elongated/straight hodographs. As a
result, large to very large hail will be possible with initial
supercell thunderstorms. Storm motion and southwesterly deep-layer
flow may result in convection moving to the cool side of the warm
front. Even so, elevated storms will pose a risk for significant
hail. With time, and as the low-level jet increases during the
evening, convection may consolidate/grow upscale into one or most
bowing segments and progress eastward into Lower MI/IN/OH, posing a
continued risk for hail and an increasing risk for damaging wind
gusts.
Any supercells that develop and can be sustained within the warm
sector will also pose a risk for a few tornadoes (some strong), very
large hail and damaging gusts.
...Southern Plains into eastern KS/western MO...
Moderate destabilization is forecast along the surface dryline by
afternoon. Strong heating along/just west of the dryline will
promote mixing, while low-level confluence and subtle height falls
(by 21-00z) provide sufficient forcing for ascent for isolated
thunderstorm development. Supercell wind profiles will be present
amid steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated hodographs. Large to
very large hail, locally strong wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes
will be possible. Storms should develop northward during the evening
into eastern KS and western MO as the low-level jet increases.
...Northeast...
Rounds of thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and
evening within a warm advection regime. MLCAPE should increase to
around 1000 J/kg within a moistening low-level airmass. Strong
deep-layer westerly flow and steepening low-level lapse rates will
support isolated strong wind gusts across the region.
..Leitman.. 04/13/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday
and Tuesday night from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes. Large
to very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts will be
possible, particularly across parts of eastern Iowa, northern
Illinois, and southern Wisconsin. Additional strong storms, mainly
producing strong wind gusts, will be possible across parts of the
Northeast.
...Synopsis...
A broad swath of enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will
overspread the southern High Plains to the Great Lakes on Tuesday.
An upper shortwave trough over the Great Basin will slowly pivot
east through the period, emerging over the central/southern High
Plains by Wednesday morning. A weak shortwave impulse is also
forecast to move across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. At
the surface, low pressure will be centered over the Mid-MO Valley
for much of the period, with a warm front extending east/northeast
from north-central IA into southern WI and central Lower MI.
Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southwest across eastern KS into
western TX. Ahead of these boundaries, a seasonally moist airmass
will be in place, with mid-60s dewpoints common. The aforementioned
surface boundaries will become a focus severe thunderstorm
development Tuesday afternoon into the nighttime hours.
...Mid-MS Valley and Great Lakes vicinity...
A severe risk is expected to develop by late afternoon within the
warm frontal zone from Iowa into northern IL/southern WI in a
persistent warm advection regime. While height tendencies are
forecast to remain mostly neutral, low-level convergence along the
boundary and a glancing influence from a weak shortwave impulse
migrating across the northern Plains into northern MN/Upper MI
should provide focused ascent. A southwesterly 850-700 mb jet is
also forecast to increase across the region by late afternoon into
evening. Cool temperatures aloft (around -16 C at 500 mb) and steep
midlevel lapse rates atop a moist boundary layer will support MLCAPE
around 2000-3000 J/kg amid elongated/straight hodographs. As a
result, large to very large hail will be possible with initial
supercell thunderstorms. Storm motion and southwesterly deep-layer
flow may result in convection moving to the cool side of the warm
front. Even so, elevated storms will pose a risk for significant
hail. With time, and as the low-level jet increases during the
evening, convection may consolidate/grow upscale into one or most
bowing segments and progress eastward into Lower MI/IN/OH, posing a
continued risk for hail and an increasing risk for damaging wind
gusts.
Any supercells that develop and can be sustained within the warm
sector will also pose a risk for a few tornadoes (some strong), very
large hail and damaging gusts.
...Southern Plains into eastern KS/western MO...
Moderate destabilization is forecast along the surface dryline by
afternoon. Strong heating along/just west of the dryline will
promote mixing, while low-level confluence and subtle height falls
(by 21-00z) provide sufficient forcing for ascent for isolated
thunderstorm development. Supercell wind profiles will be present
amid steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated hodographs. Large to
very large hail, locally strong wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes
will be possible. Storms should develop northward during the evening
into eastern KS and western MO as the low-level jet increases.
...Northeast...
Rounds of thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and
evening within a warm advection regime. MLCAPE should increase to
around 1000 J/kg within a moistening low-level airmass. Strong
deep-layer westerly flow and steepening low-level lapse rates will
support isolated strong wind gusts across the region.
..Leitman.. 04/13/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday
and Tuesday night from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes. Large
to very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts will be
possible, particularly across parts of eastern Iowa, northern
Illinois, and southern Wisconsin. Additional strong storms, mainly
producing strong wind gusts, will be possible across parts of the
Northeast.
...Synopsis...
A broad swath of enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will
overspread the southern High Plains to the Great Lakes on Tuesday.
An upper shortwave trough over the Great Basin will slowly pivot
east through the period, emerging over the central/southern High
Plains by Wednesday morning. A weak shortwave impulse is also
forecast to move across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. At
the surface, low pressure will be centered over the Mid-MO Valley
for much of the period, with a warm front extending east/northeast
from north-central IA into southern WI and central Lower MI.
Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southwest across eastern KS into
western TX. Ahead of these boundaries, a seasonally moist airmass
will be in place, with mid-60s dewpoints common. The aforementioned
surface boundaries will become a focus severe thunderstorm
development Tuesday afternoon into the nighttime hours.
...Mid-MS Valley and Great Lakes vicinity...
A severe risk is expected to develop by late afternoon within the
warm frontal zone from Iowa into northern IL/southern WI in a
persistent warm advection regime. While height tendencies are
forecast to remain mostly neutral, low-level convergence along the
boundary and a glancing influence from a weak shortwave impulse
migrating across the northern Plains into northern MN/Upper MI
should provide focused ascent. A southwesterly 850-700 mb jet is
also forecast to increase across the region by late afternoon into
evening. Cool temperatures aloft (around -16 C at 500 mb) and steep
midlevel lapse rates atop a moist boundary layer will support MLCAPE
around 2000-3000 J/kg amid elongated/straight hodographs. As a
result, large to very large hail will be possible with initial
supercell thunderstorms. Storm motion and southwesterly deep-layer
flow may result in convection moving to the cool side of the warm
front. Even so, elevated storms will pose a risk for significant
hail. With time, and as the low-level jet increases during the
evening, convection may consolidate/grow upscale into one or most
bowing segments and progress eastward into Lower MI/IN/OH, posing a
continued risk for hail and an increasing risk for damaging wind
gusts.
Any supercells that develop and can be sustained within the warm
sector will also pose a risk for a few tornadoes (some strong), very
large hail and damaging gusts.
...Southern Plains into eastern KS/western MO...
Moderate destabilization is forecast along the surface dryline by
afternoon. Strong heating along/just west of the dryline will
promote mixing, while low-level confluence and subtle height falls
(by 21-00z) provide sufficient forcing for ascent for isolated
thunderstorm development. Supercell wind profiles will be present
amid steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated hodographs. Large to
very large hail, locally strong wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes
will be possible. Storms should develop northward during the evening
into eastern KS and western MO as the low-level jet increases.
...Northeast...
Rounds of thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and
evening within a warm advection regime. MLCAPE should increase to
around 1000 J/kg within a moistening low-level airmass. Strong
deep-layer westerly flow and steepening low-level lapse rates will
support isolated strong wind gusts across the region.
..Leitman.. 04/13/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
The progression of the upper trough in the Southwest/southern High
Plains is expected to slow on Tuesday. The trough may not eject into
the Plains until early Wednesday morning. A surface low will deepen
in the central High Plains.
...Southeast Colorado and vicinity...
A similar setup to Monday is expected, though the location of the
trough will bring better alignment of stronger mid-level winds to
the region. The deepening surface low will further increase surface
wind speeds to 20-25 mph. RH of around 15% appears likely. Farther
east into Kansas, the surface winds will be similarly strong along
with a very dry airmass (RH perhaps nearing 10% in some locations).
Recent rainfall should mitigate some fire weather risk with eastward
extent. Critical fire weather is expected.
...Parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains...
The base of the trough over this region along with a moderately
strong surface pressure gradient will promote 15-20 mph winds. RH
will be somewhat uncertain given the expected mid-level clouds.
However, around 20% is possible for broad portions of the region.
Elevated fire weather is forecast during the afternoon.
...Mid-Atlantic...
Dry return flow will continue in the Mid-Atlantic. 10-15 mph winds
around the surface high are probable during the afternoon. 25-30% RH
will also occur. Despite the marginal meteorological conditions,
very dry fuels will support an elevated fire weather threat.
..Wendt.. 04/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
The progression of the upper trough in the Southwest/southern High
Plains is expected to slow on Tuesday. The trough may not eject into
the Plains until early Wednesday morning. A surface low will deepen
in the central High Plains.
...Southeast Colorado and vicinity...
A similar setup to Monday is expected, though the location of the
trough will bring better alignment of stronger mid-level winds to
the region. The deepening surface low will further increase surface
wind speeds to 20-25 mph. RH of around 15% appears likely. Farther
east into Kansas, the surface winds will be similarly strong along
with a very dry airmass (RH perhaps nearing 10% in some locations).
Recent rainfall should mitigate some fire weather risk with eastward
extent. Critical fire weather is expected.
...Parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains...
The base of the trough over this region along with a moderately
strong surface pressure gradient will promote 15-20 mph winds. RH
will be somewhat uncertain given the expected mid-level clouds.
However, around 20% is possible for broad portions of the region.
Elevated fire weather is forecast during the afternoon.
...Mid-Atlantic...
Dry return flow will continue in the Mid-Atlantic. 10-15 mph winds
around the surface high are probable during the afternoon. 25-30% RH
will also occur. Despite the marginal meteorological conditions,
very dry fuels will support an elevated fire weather threat.
..Wendt.. 04/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
The progression of the upper trough in the Southwest/southern High
Plains is expected to slow on Tuesday. The trough may not eject into
the Plains until early Wednesday morning. A surface low will deepen
in the central High Plains.
...Southeast Colorado and vicinity...
A similar setup to Monday is expected, though the location of the
trough will bring better alignment of stronger mid-level winds to
the region. The deepening surface low will further increase surface
wind speeds to 20-25 mph. RH of around 15% appears likely. Farther
east into Kansas, the surface winds will be similarly strong along
with a very dry airmass (RH perhaps nearing 10% in some locations).
Recent rainfall should mitigate some fire weather risk with eastward
extent. Critical fire weather is expected.
...Parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains...
The base of the trough over this region along with a moderately
strong surface pressure gradient will promote 15-20 mph winds. RH
will be somewhat uncertain given the expected mid-level clouds.
However, around 20% is possible for broad portions of the region.
Elevated fire weather is forecast during the afternoon.
...Mid-Atlantic...
Dry return flow will continue in the Mid-Atlantic. 10-15 mph winds
around the surface high are probable during the afternoon. 25-30% RH
will also occur. Despite the marginal meteorological conditions,
very dry fuels will support an elevated fire weather threat.
..Wendt.. 04/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN WYOMING...SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
Continued southwesterly flow aloft is expected today across much of
the central/southern Plains. A shortwave trough is expected to
approach the southern Plains very late in the period. A weaker
shortwave trough in the central Northern Plains will also be
present. At the surface, a broad area of low pressure will exist
east of the terrain.
...Eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and Nebraska...
The northern stream mid-level jet will be favorably timed with
afternoon heating/minimum RH. This feature, coupled with the surface
trough to the east, will drive 20-25 mph winds in eastern portions
of Wyoming and adjacent western South Dakota and Nebraska. RH will
likely fall to 10-15%. Critical fire weather is expected for a few
hours during the afternoon. Farther south into the Front Range,
winds will be weaker leading to elevated fire weather.
...Southeast Colorado and vicinity...
The position of a modest surface low in southeast Colorado will
promote surface winds of around 20 mph despite the stronger
mid-level winds lagging farther southwest. Terrain enhancement could
also lead to local corridors of stronger winds. RH of around 15% is
expected during the afternoon. These conditions will support
critical fire weather.
...Piedmont...southern Appalachians...
Dry return flow around a surface high pressure system will promote
10-15 mph winds within parts of the southern Appalachians and the
Piedmont region. RH of near 20% is possible in parts of the
Mid-Atlantic though higher values of 25-35% are expected with
southward extent. Given how dry fuels are, elevated fire weather
conditions are expected.
..Wendt.. 04/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN WYOMING...SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
Continued southwesterly flow aloft is expected today across much of
the central/southern Plains. A shortwave trough is expected to
approach the southern Plains very late in the period. A weaker
shortwave trough in the central Northern Plains will also be
present. At the surface, a broad area of low pressure will exist
east of the terrain.
...Eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and Nebraska...
The northern stream mid-level jet will be favorably timed with
afternoon heating/minimum RH. This feature, coupled with the surface
trough to the east, will drive 20-25 mph winds in eastern portions
of Wyoming and adjacent western South Dakota and Nebraska. RH will
likely fall to 10-15%. Critical fire weather is expected for a few
hours during the afternoon. Farther south into the Front Range,
winds will be weaker leading to elevated fire weather.
...Southeast Colorado and vicinity...
The position of a modest surface low in southeast Colorado will
promote surface winds of around 20 mph despite the stronger
mid-level winds lagging farther southwest. Terrain enhancement could
also lead to local corridors of stronger winds. RH of around 15% is
expected during the afternoon. These conditions will support
critical fire weather.
...Piedmont...southern Appalachians...
Dry return flow around a surface high pressure system will promote
10-15 mph winds within parts of the southern Appalachians and the
Piedmont region. RH of near 20% is possible in parts of the
Mid-Atlantic though higher values of 25-35% are expected with
southward extent. Given how dry fuels are, elevated fire weather
conditions are expected.
..Wendt.. 04/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN WYOMING...SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
Continued southwesterly flow aloft is expected today across much of
the central/southern Plains. A shortwave trough is expected to
approach the southern Plains very late in the period. A weaker
shortwave trough in the central Northern Plains will also be
present. At the surface, a broad area of low pressure will exist
east of the terrain.
...Eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and Nebraska...
The northern stream mid-level jet will be favorably timed with
afternoon heating/minimum RH. This feature, coupled with the surface
trough to the east, will drive 20-25 mph winds in eastern portions
of Wyoming and adjacent western South Dakota and Nebraska. RH will
likely fall to 10-15%. Critical fire weather is expected for a few
hours during the afternoon. Farther south into the Front Range,
winds will be weaker leading to elevated fire weather.
...Southeast Colorado and vicinity...
The position of a modest surface low in southeast Colorado will
promote surface winds of around 20 mph despite the stronger
mid-level winds lagging farther southwest. Terrain enhancement could
also lead to local corridors of stronger winds. RH of around 15% is
expected during the afternoon. These conditions will support
critical fire weather.
...Piedmont...southern Appalachians...
Dry return flow around a surface high pressure system will promote
10-15 mph winds within parts of the southern Appalachians and the
Piedmont region. RH of near 20% is possible in parts of the
Mid-Atlantic though higher values of 25-35% are expected with
southward extent. Given how dry fuels are, elevated fire weather
conditions are expected.
..Wendt.. 04/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across the Upper Mississippi Valley
and Great Lakes region with potential for large to very large hail,
damaging wind, and tornadoes. A more conditional and isolated risk
for severe storms is possible across portions of the southern Plains
late this afternoon and evening.
...Synopsis...
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper trough with
multiple embedded vorticity maxima over the Great Basin. While the
primary upper wave will remain over the West for today, a leading
impulse is forecast to eject towards the northern Plains and into
the Great Lakes through tonight. At the surface, a weak lee cyclone
over the central High Plains will migrate northeastward in tandem
with the upper impulse, likely reaching the southern MN vicinity by
early evening. As this occurs, a plume of mid-60s dewpoints will
spread north into the upper MS Valley along and south of a warm
front. Scattered thunderstorm development along and north of the
warm front is anticipated by late afternoon as forcing for ascent
gradually increases. Elsewhere, more isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible across portions of TX and OK where deep
mixing along a dryline may result in sustained deep convection.
...Upper MS Valley...
A combination of shortwave ridging and capping at the base of an EML
will limit thunderstorm development through much of the day across
southern MN into central WI. This will allow for continued moisture
return as a warm front lifts into the region with MLCAPE values
forecast to reach 2000-2500 J/kg by around 21 UTC. Thunderstorm
development will become increasingly probable through the 21-00 UTC
period as isentropic ascent strengthens ahead of the approaching
upper disturbance. Lingering inhibition coupled with 45-50 knot
effective bulk shear should promote initially discrete supercells
along or just north of the surface boundary. Hodograph elongation
appears favorable for a large hail threat, possibly as large as 2-3
inches with the more robust cells. Additionally, enhanced low-level
SRH along the frontal zone may result in a corridor of relatively
higher tornado potential if convection can remain rooted along the
boundary.
While the overall environment appears very favorable for intense
convection, east/northeasterly storm motions along or just north of
the warm front will likely promote storm advection towards the cool
side of the boundary and clustering/upscale growth through the
evening. This, combined with capping over the remainder of the warm
sector, limits confidence in a more widespread tornado threat, and
could modulate the potential for significant (2+ inch) hail within a
few hours after convective initiation. Nonetheless, a corridor of
higher hail potential remains evident in latest guidance along and
just north of the warm front where discrete supercells are most
probable. 30% hail probabilities have been shifted to reflect a
southward trend in frontal placement noted in most recent guidance.
...Southern Plains...
A moist and very unstable air mass will remain in place across TX
and OK today with MLCAPE values expected to increase to around 2500
J/kg by late afternoon. Ample diurnal heating/mixing on the western
periphery of the moisture plume will likely result in weak,
high-based convection by mid to late afternoon. Easterly storm
motions may promote downstream intensification as convection
migrates towards richer low-level moisture, but this will be
conditional on convection remaining sustained long enough to realize
the favorable thermodynamic environment. If this can occur,
deep-layer shear values on the order of 40 knots should promote
organized convection - likely in the form of supercells - with an
attendant threat for all hazards, including very large hail. While
both global and CAM ensemble guidance hint at this potential, the
lack of appreciable lifting mechanisms (aside from the dryline
circulation/boundary-layer mixing) casts considerable uncertainty on
overall storm coverage.
..Moore/Wendt.. 04/13/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across the Upper Mississippi Valley
and Great Lakes region with potential for large to very large hail,
damaging wind, and tornadoes. A more conditional and isolated risk
for severe storms is possible across portions of the southern Plains
late this afternoon and evening.
...Synopsis...
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper trough with
multiple embedded vorticity maxima over the Great Basin. While the
primary upper wave will remain over the West for today, a leading
impulse is forecast to eject towards the northern Plains and into
the Great Lakes through tonight. At the surface, a weak lee cyclone
over the central High Plains will migrate northeastward in tandem
with the upper impulse, likely reaching the southern MN vicinity by
early evening. As this occurs, a plume of mid-60s dewpoints will
spread north into the upper MS Valley along and south of a warm
front. Scattered thunderstorm development along and north of the
warm front is anticipated by late afternoon as forcing for ascent
gradually increases. Elsewhere, more isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible across portions of TX and OK where deep
mixing along a dryline may result in sustained deep convection.
...Upper MS Valley...
A combination of shortwave ridging and capping at the base of an EML
will limit thunderstorm development through much of the day across
southern MN into central WI. This will allow for continued moisture
return as a warm front lifts into the region with MLCAPE values
forecast to reach 2000-2500 J/kg by around 21 UTC. Thunderstorm
development will become increasingly probable through the 21-00 UTC
period as isentropic ascent strengthens ahead of the approaching
upper disturbance. Lingering inhibition coupled with 45-50 knot
effective bulk shear should promote initially discrete supercells
along or just north of the surface boundary. Hodograph elongation
appears favorable for a large hail threat, possibly as large as 2-3
inches with the more robust cells. Additionally, enhanced low-level
SRH along the frontal zone may result in a corridor of relatively
higher tornado potential if convection can remain rooted along the
boundary.
While the overall environment appears very favorable for intense
convection, east/northeasterly storm motions along or just north of
the warm front will likely promote storm advection towards the cool
side of the boundary and clustering/upscale growth through the
evening. This, combined with capping over the remainder of the warm
sector, limits confidence in a more widespread tornado threat, and
could modulate the potential for significant (2+ inch) hail within a
few hours after convective initiation. Nonetheless, a corridor of
higher hail potential remains evident in latest guidance along and
just north of the warm front where discrete supercells are most
probable. 30% hail probabilities have been shifted to reflect a
southward trend in frontal placement noted in most recent guidance.
...Southern Plains...
A moist and very unstable air mass will remain in place across TX
and OK today with MLCAPE values expected to increase to around 2500
J/kg by late afternoon. Ample diurnal heating/mixing on the western
periphery of the moisture plume will likely result in weak,
high-based convection by mid to late afternoon. Easterly storm
motions may promote downstream intensification as convection
migrates towards richer low-level moisture, but this will be
conditional on convection remaining sustained long enough to realize
the favorable thermodynamic environment. If this can occur,
deep-layer shear values on the order of 40 knots should promote
organized convection - likely in the form of supercells - with an
attendant threat for all hazards, including very large hail. While
both global and CAM ensemble guidance hint at this potential, the
lack of appreciable lifting mechanisms (aside from the dryline
circulation/boundary-layer mixing) casts considerable uncertainty on
overall storm coverage.
..Moore/Wendt.. 04/13/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across the Upper Mississippi Valley
and Great Lakes region with potential for large to very large hail,
damaging wind, and tornadoes. A more conditional and isolated risk
for severe storms is possible across portions of the southern Plains
late this afternoon and evening.
...Synopsis...
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper trough with
multiple embedded vorticity maxima over the Great Basin. While the
primary upper wave will remain over the West for today, a leading
impulse is forecast to eject towards the northern Plains and into
the Great Lakes through tonight. At the surface, a weak lee cyclone
over the central High Plains will migrate northeastward in tandem
with the upper impulse, likely reaching the southern MN vicinity by
early evening. As this occurs, a plume of mid-60s dewpoints will
spread north into the upper MS Valley along and south of a warm
front. Scattered thunderstorm development along and north of the
warm front is anticipated by late afternoon as forcing for ascent
gradually increases. Elsewhere, more isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible across portions of TX and OK where deep
mixing along a dryline may result in sustained deep convection.
...Upper MS Valley...
A combination of shortwave ridging and capping at the base of an EML
will limit thunderstorm development through much of the day across
southern MN into central WI. This will allow for continued moisture
return as a warm front lifts into the region with MLCAPE values
forecast to reach 2000-2500 J/kg by around 21 UTC. Thunderstorm
development will become increasingly probable through the 21-00 UTC
period as isentropic ascent strengthens ahead of the approaching
upper disturbance. Lingering inhibition coupled with 45-50 knot
effective bulk shear should promote initially discrete supercells
along or just north of the surface boundary. Hodograph elongation
appears favorable for a large hail threat, possibly as large as 2-3
inches with the more robust cells. Additionally, enhanced low-level
SRH along the frontal zone may result in a corridor of relatively
higher tornado potential if convection can remain rooted along the
boundary.
While the overall environment appears very favorable for intense
convection, east/northeasterly storm motions along or just north of
the warm front will likely promote storm advection towards the cool
side of the boundary and clustering/upscale growth through the
evening. This, combined with capping over the remainder of the warm
sector, limits confidence in a more widespread tornado threat, and
could modulate the potential for significant (2+ inch) hail within a
few hours after convective initiation. Nonetheless, a corridor of
higher hail potential remains evident in latest guidance along and
just north of the warm front where discrete supercells are most
probable. 30% hail probabilities have been shifted to reflect a
southward trend in frontal placement noted in most recent guidance.
...Southern Plains...
A moist and very unstable air mass will remain in place across TX
and OK today with MLCAPE values expected to increase to around 2500
J/kg by late afternoon. Ample diurnal heating/mixing on the western
periphery of the moisture plume will likely result in weak,
high-based convection by mid to late afternoon. Easterly storm
motions may promote downstream intensification as convection
migrates towards richer low-level moisture, but this will be
conditional on convection remaining sustained long enough to realize
the favorable thermodynamic environment. If this can occur,
deep-layer shear values on the order of 40 knots should promote
organized convection - likely in the form of supercells - with an
attendant threat for all hazards, including very large hail. While
both global and CAM ensemble guidance hint at this potential, the
lack of appreciable lifting mechanisms (aside from the dryline
circulation/boundary-layer mixing) casts considerable uncertainty on
overall storm coverage.
..Moore/Wendt.. 04/13/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Valid 130100Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this
evening across portions of central Texas and perhaps central/western
Oklahoma.
...Synopsis...
Mid-evening surface observations reveal an expansive warm sector
from the TX coast northward into the Plains and upper MS Valley.
Despite a high-quality thermodynamic environment throughout much of
this warm sector, a combination of residual capping across the upper
MS Valley and/or very weak ascent in the wake of an upper-level
disturbance is limiting the overall potential for thunderstorms
outside of the southern Plains. Across the West, convective coverage
is gradually diminishing and will continue to dwindle heading into
the late evening hours as nocturnal cooling begins to increase
inhibition.
...Southern Plains...
The most intense convection currently resides to the west of the
I-35 corridor in central TX where strong to severe thunderstorms
have developed on the western fringe of an expanding cold pool.
MLCAPE values to the west of the cold pool were recently sampled
near 2500 J/kg by the DRT and OUN soundings with around 30-35 knots
of effective bulk shear also noted. This environment is favorable
for organized convection, including splitting supercells with some
potential for large to very large hail. However, close proximity to
the residual cold pool should limit the overall spatial extent of
this threat, and most guidance depicts this activity waning later
tonight in the absence of persistent forcing for ascent.
Further north into western Oklahoma and northwest TX, continued
cumulus development along a diffuse dryline is noted in GOES
imagery. While storm development appears unlikely given the
approaching onset of nocturnal cooling, the downstream environment
remains highly favorable for intense convection per the 00z OUN
RAOB, and recent RRFS solutions hint at the potential for convection
within the next 1-3 hours (though these solutions appear to be
outliers compared to other guidance). Given this signal and the
favorable environment, opted to maintain 5% hail/wind probabilities
to account for this low-probability, but potentially high impact
scenario.
..Moore.. 04/13/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Valid 130100Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this
evening across portions of central Texas and perhaps central/western
Oklahoma.
...Synopsis...
Mid-evening surface observations reveal an expansive warm sector
from the TX coast northward into the Plains and upper MS Valley.
Despite a high-quality thermodynamic environment throughout much of
this warm sector, a combination of residual capping across the upper
MS Valley and/or very weak ascent in the wake of an upper-level
disturbance is limiting the overall potential for thunderstorms
outside of the southern Plains. Across the West, convective coverage
is gradually diminishing and will continue to dwindle heading into
the late evening hours as nocturnal cooling begins to increase
inhibition.
...Southern Plains...
The most intense convection currently resides to the west of the
I-35 corridor in central TX where strong to severe thunderstorms
have developed on the western fringe of an expanding cold pool.
MLCAPE values to the west of the cold pool were recently sampled
near 2500 J/kg by the DRT and OUN soundings with around 30-35 knots
of effective bulk shear also noted. This environment is favorable
for organized convection, including splitting supercells with some
potential for large to very large hail. However, close proximity to
the residual cold pool should limit the overall spatial extent of
this threat, and most guidance depicts this activity waning later
tonight in the absence of persistent forcing for ascent.
Further north into western Oklahoma and northwest TX, continued
cumulus development along a diffuse dryline is noted in GOES
imagery. While storm development appears unlikely given the
approaching onset of nocturnal cooling, the downstream environment
remains highly favorable for intense convection per the 00z OUN
RAOB, and recent RRFS solutions hint at the potential for convection
within the next 1-3 hours (though these solutions appear to be
outliers compared to other guidance). Given this signal and the
favorable environment, opted to maintain 5% hail/wind probabilities
to account for this low-probability, but potentially high impact
scenario.
..Moore.. 04/13/2026
Read more
MD 0394 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0394
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Areas affected...Portions of central Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 130032Z - 130230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Large hail (isolated up to 2 inches) and severe wind gusts
are possible into mid evening with storms in central Texas. A watch
is not anticipated given limited forcing and storm coverage.
DISCUSSION...Storms in the vicinity of San Saba and Mills Counties
have intensified over the last hour. These storms are forming along
the western edge of rain-cooled air from convection farther east.
This evening's observed soundings from the region indicate steep
mid-level lapse rates (7.5-8 C/km). While mid-level winds will tend
to weaken with time, storms will remain at least periodically
organized into the evening. Given the relatively straight
hodographs, storm splits can be expected. The greatest potential for
severe weather (particularly large hail) will be from left-moving
cells. These storms will maintain warm/moist inflow as they move
north-northeast away from the cooler air. How long storms can remain
strong to severe is not certain given lack of large-scale forcing.
..Wendt/Hart.. 04/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 31069844 30889874 30559937 30509958 30689970 30849963
31249938 31619921 32259866 32519796 32339773 31829778
31069844
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
MD 0391 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN TEXAS THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0391
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Areas affected...parts of northwestern Texas through western
Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 122018Z - 122245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm activity may
develop and pose a risk for a couple of strong downbursts
approaching or exceeding severe limits through 6-7 PM CDT.
DISCUSSION...Substantive destabilization is ongoing along and ahead
of the dryline, which continues to gradually mix eastward across the
Texas South Plains, and now through west Oklahoma. Even so,
convergence along the dryline remains weak, and mid-level heights
are tending to rise in the wake of short wave troughing progressing
into the upper through middle Mississippi Valley. Guidance
generally suggests that potential for thunderstorm initiation
along/east of the dryline is low at least into early evening, if not
beyond.
However, where convective temperatures are being reached in the
deepening mixed boundary layer to the west of the dryline, deepening
convective development is evident, particularly now in a cluster
west-northwest of Lubbock into areas east of Amarillo. Despite weak
CAPE, at least some further intensification is possible as this
activity spreads east northeastward through 21-00Z. Calibrated
thunderstorm guidance even indicates low probabilities for isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorm development.
As this occurs, based above a roughly 3+ km deep boundary-layer with
40-50 degree temperature dew point spreads, and in the presence of
20+ kt mean lower/mid-tropospheric flow, a couple of strong
downbursts approaching or exceeding severe limits appear possible.
..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 35500039 36669928 36509827 32670078 33930173 35500039
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
Read more
MD 0392 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IDAHO...NORTHERN UTAH...WESTERN WYOMING...FAR SOUTHERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0392
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Areas affected...portions of eastern Idaho...northern Utah...western
Wyoming...far southern Montana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 122048Z - 122245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few more severe gusts may occur with the stronger storms
over the next few hours, especially in association with the primary
band of convection over southeastern ID into northern UT.
DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed over portions of
the central Rockies over the past few hours with the approach of a
500 mb vort max. A relatively more pronounced band of thunderstorms
has become established over southeastern ID into northern UT, where
multiple 50+ kt convective wind gusts have been measured. Given up
to 1000 J/kg SBCAPE preceding this convective band (per 20Z
mesoanalysis), additional severe gusts remain possible, both with
this band, and perhaps with storms out ahead of it
..Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...
LAT...LON 40421270 40601245 40961226 41461234 42271280 42711327
42911344 43901326 44741289 45271182 45451081 45190984
44930934 44610907 44070898 43410905 42500944 41640995
41121037 40701088 40371138 40261175 40211213 40421270
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
Read more
