Storm Prediction Center

WW 99 TORNADO KS NE 112130Z - 120400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 99 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 430 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far northern Kansas South central and southeast Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 430 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Isolated supercells will be possible near a warm front developing northward from northern Kansas into southern Nebraska, where a couple of tornadoes will be possible with storms that stay along the warm front. Otherwise, the strongest storms could produce large hail near 1.5 inches in diameter, along with 60-70 mph outflow gusts as additional convection spreads east-northeastward from northwest Kansas into southern Nebraska. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles southwest of Kearney NE to 15 miles east southeast of Beatrice NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23020. ...Thompson Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... An active upper-level troughing pattern is expected across much of the western and central CONUS next week bringing increasing opportunities for precipitation to portions of the Intermountain West, the Great Plains, Midwest and Northeast. Largely dry conditions will continue across the Southeast under persistent ridging aloft, but light winds should limit a broader fire weather threat across the region where drought continues to expand. A fire weather threat will likely be sustained this through at least Day 5/Wednesday across sections of the Southwest and central/southern High Plains where rainfall is minimized and dry and breezy conditions under enhanced southwest flow aloft continues. ...Day 3/Monday... ...Central/Southern Plains and Southwest... Broad southwest flow ahead of an eastward advancing upper-level trough across the Great Basin will overspread much of Southwest and central U.S. on Day 3/Monday. Farther east, an evolving surface low across SD/NE with enhanced southwest flow aloft will support dry and breezy conditions amid a well-mixed, dry boundary layer across much of the central and southern High Plains. Minimal preceding rainfall and remaining receptive fuels should support an enhanced fire weather threat across the region. Latest model guidance has shifted a 500 mb jet max slightly southward over northeastern NM into the TX/OK Panhandles, with critical fire weather conditions more likely to develop across this region. As such, the 70% critical area has been modified based on this updated model guidance. ...Mid-Atlantic... A dry return flow pattern emerges early next week across the Mid-Atlantic as a surface low translates northeastward into Ontario. In response, increased pressure gradients should allow for increasing south/southwest winds amid relative humidity as low as 20% across portions of NC and VA. 40% critical probabilities have been introduced amid very dry fuels. ...Day 4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday... ...Central and Southern Plains... A mid-level jet enters the Southern Plains Day 4/Tuesday in association with a progressive trough across the West. Downslope enhanced west/southwest winds behind a dry line should bring at least elevated fire weather concerns to much of the southern and central Plains by Tuesday afternoon. Some uncertainty remains in expected extent and magnitude of rainfall through tonight across the Southern Plains, with a potential introduction of 70% critical probabilities possible in future forecast updates if significant rainfall fails to materialize. The dry, downslope regime continues into Day 5/Wednesday with fire weather concerns more focused across southeastern NM into West TX on the tail of the departing mid-level jet. 40% critical probabilities have been added for portions of southeastern NM and West TX for this expected fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 04/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... An active upper-level troughing pattern is expected across much of the western and central CONUS next week bringing increasing opportunities for precipitation to portions of the Intermountain West, the Great Plains, Midwest and Northeast. Largely dry conditions will continue across the Southeast under persistent ridging aloft, but light winds should limit a broader fire weather threat across the region where drought continues to expand. A fire weather threat will likely be sustained this through at least Day 5/Wednesday across sections of the Southwest and central/southern High Plains where rainfall is minimized and dry and breezy conditions under enhanced southwest flow aloft continues. ...Day 3/Monday... ...Central/Southern Plains and Southwest... Broad southwest flow ahead of an eastward advancing upper-level trough across the Great Basin will overspread much of Southwest and central U.S. on Day 3/Monday. Farther east, an evolving surface low across SD/NE with enhanced southwest flow aloft will support dry and breezy conditions amid a well-mixed, dry boundary layer across much of the central and southern High Plains. Minimal preceding rainfall and remaining receptive fuels should support an enhanced fire weather threat across the region. Latest model guidance has shifted a 500 mb jet max slightly southward over northeastern NM into the TX/OK Panhandles, with critical fire weather conditions more likely to develop across this region. As such, the 70% critical area has been modified based on this updated model guidance. ...Mid-Atlantic... A dry return flow pattern emerges early next week across the Mid-Atlantic as a surface low translates northeastward into Ontario. In response, increased pressure gradients should allow for increasing south/southwest winds amid relative humidity as low as 20% across portions of NC and VA. 40% critical probabilities have been introduced amid very dry fuels. ...Day 4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday... ...Central and Southern Plains... A mid-level jet enters the Southern Plains Day 4/Tuesday in association with a progressive trough across the West. Downslope enhanced west/southwest winds behind a dry line should bring at least elevated fire weather concerns to much of the southern and central Plains by Tuesday afternoon. Some uncertainty remains in expected extent and magnitude of rainfall through tonight across the Southern Plains, with a potential introduction of 70% critical probabilities possible in future forecast updates if significant rainfall fails to materialize. The dry, downslope regime continues into Day 5/Wednesday with fire weather concerns more focused across southeastern NM into West TX on the tail of the departing mid-level jet. 40% critical probabilities have been added for portions of southeastern NM and West TX for this expected fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 04/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts are possible across portions of the southern High Plains and into parts of Kansas and Nebraska this afternoon and evening. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Rockies, upper Mississippi Valley, and portions of the California coast. ...20z Update KS/NE... An MCV evident in visible imagery over southwest/central KS is forecast to shift northeastward this afternoon toward a differential heating zone associated with a modifying remnant outflow boundary across northern KS and southern NE. Ample heating south of this zone has warmed temperatures ~5-7 degree above model guidance, with observation trends suggestive of locally stronger buoyancy and vertical shear on modified 12 and 18z RAOBs (1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE). While overall mid-level flow is modest, some enhancement in the low and mid-levels ahead of the MCV is also evident in area VADs, bolstering bulk shear to 30-35 kt. Backed low-level winds along the retreating boundary are also aiding in maintaining sizable clockwise curved low-level hodographs. This could support the development of small supercell structures with potential to produce tornadoes, particularly near and just north of the retreating outflow boundary, and perhaps in close proximity to the MCV. Otherwise, some hail and localized strong wind gusts are possible with any more robust storms able to develop and maintain themselves into this evening. Deep-layer shear is progged to increase after dark, as a 40-50 kt low-level jet develops, supporting an increase in storm coverage along and north of the boundary tonight. Hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats. Given the local increase in severe potential, a small zone ahead of the MCV and along the boundary has been upgraded to a level 2/5 Slight Risk. ...TX and NM... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain likely tonight across West TX, the Rio Grand Valley and southeastern NM. Eventually, one ore more lines or clusters may emerge and spread east/northeast into central TX/west-central OK. A risk for damaging gusts or a tornado remain possible with these storms into early Sunday morning. High-res guidance suggests these storms may maintain intensity slightly farther east. The 5% wind are was moved eastward to account for the overnight/early morning risk for a few damaging gusts. Elsewhere, severe storms remain possible over parts of the Rockies and West Coast. The outlook remains largely unchanged. See the prior discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 04/11/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1205 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery reveals two shortwave troughs, one moving through the Great Basin and the other moving into central Mexico, progressing through the southwesterly flow aloft between the subtropical ridging that extends through the Southeast states and a deep upper low off the central West Coast. Steep mid-level lapse rates precede the northern shortwave (i.e. from the northern/central Rockies northeastward) and low-level moisture continues to advect northward across the southern and central Plains. Both of these factors will increase buoyancy ahead of these two shortwaves, which are expected to become increasingly phased as they progress northeastward throughout the day. This evolution will support a large area of thunderstorms from the northern Rockies through the southern Plains this afternoon/evening. Environmental conditions support strong to isolated severe thunderstorms across these areas, with a relatively higher chance of severe from the southern High Plains into central TX and along the eastern NE/KS border vicinity. Additionally, the West Coast upper low is forecast to progress east-southeastward into southern OR and northern/central CA this evening and overnight, supporting the potential for thunderstorms, a few of which could be strong. ...Southern High Plains into Central Texas... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across the southern High Plains as a shortwave trough lifts out of central Mexico and interacts with the moist and modestly buoyant airmass in places over the region. A few initially discrete storms are possible, and adequate deep-layer wind shear around 35 kt could result in a few instances of severe hail. However, weak capping and strong ascent should promote increasing thunderstorm coverage, resulting in a transition to a more clustered storm mode. Eventual evolution into one or more line segments is possible, particularly over southwest TX as low-level flow nocturnally strengthens and low-level moisture increases. As this transition occurs, damaging gust potential will become the predominant hazard. The strengthening low-level flow will also lengthen low-level hodograph, supporting the potential for an embedded circulation or two, particularly along the southern extent of whatever line develops. ...Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Recent surface analysis places a warm front across central KS. This warm front is forecast to progress northward throughout the day amid persistent southerly flow and resulting moderate/strong low-level moisture advection. Given the ongoing cloud cover across the region, as well as the showers and thunderstorms over northwest MO, there is some uncertainty to how this surface boundary will evolve. General expectation is for this front to extend from the central NE vicinity into north-central MO by this evening. Large, looping low-level hodographs are anticipated in the vicinity of this warm front. These profiles, along with dewpoints in the low/mid 60s and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, result in an environment that is conditionally favorable for supercells. However, some capping will likely linger across the region and large-scale forcing will be negligible, casting doubt to whether convective initiation will be realized. This uncertainty is matched by the CAM guidance, none of which establishes meaningful convection during the afternoon and evening. All that to say, if an updraft does mature in this environment, all severe hazards are possible, including a tornado. More certain (but less intense) thunderstorm potential is anticipated as low-level warm air advection becomes increasingly focused from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley this evening and overnight. Moderate elevated buoyancy and deep-layer shear support the potential for a few stronger updrafts capable of hail as thunderstorms expand northeastward from IA into the Upper Midwest. ...Northern/Central Rockies... Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated across the northern and central Rockies, ahead of a shortwave trough progressing northeastward into the region. Deep boundary-layer mixing ahead of this system coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will result in an environment that supports the potential for strong to severe gusts across much of the region. ...Northern/Central California Coast... A frontal band, associated with an upper low moving over the northern California coast tonight, is expected to progress southeastward through the central CA coastal vicinity this evening. Thermodynamic profiles appear marginally supportive of isolated convection deep enough to produce lightning. Winds within the lowest 1-2 km AGL should increase to around 40 kt as the wave moves onshore, which will contribute to the potential for convective downdrafts to produce a few locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts are possible across portions of the southern High Plains and into parts of Kansas and Nebraska this afternoon and evening. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Rockies, upper Mississippi Valley, and portions of the California coast. ...20z Update KS/NE... An MCV evident in visible imagery over southwest/central KS is forecast to shift northeastward this afternoon toward a differential heating zone associated with a modifying remnant outflow boundary across northern KS and southern NE. Ample heating south of this zone has warmed temperatures ~5-7 degree above model guidance, with observation trends suggestive of locally stronger buoyancy and vertical shear on modified 12 and 18z RAOBs (1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE). While overall mid-level flow is modest, some enhancement in the low and mid-levels ahead of the MCV is also evident in area VADs, bolstering bulk shear to 30-35 kt. Backed low-level winds along the retreating boundary are also aiding in maintaining sizable clockwise curved low-level hodographs. This could support the development of small supercell structures with potential to produce tornadoes, particularly near and just north of the retreating outflow boundary, and perhaps in close proximity to the MCV. Otherwise, some hail and localized strong wind gusts are possible with any more robust storms able to develop and maintain themselves into this evening. Deep-layer shear is progged to increase after dark, as a 40-50 kt low-level jet develops, supporting an increase in storm coverage along and north of the boundary tonight. Hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats. Given the local increase in severe potential, a small zone ahead of the MCV and along the boundary has been upgraded to a level 2/5 Slight Risk. ...TX and NM... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain likely tonight across West TX, the Rio Grand Valley and southeastern NM. Eventually, one ore more lines or clusters may emerge and spread east/northeast into central TX/west-central OK. A risk for damaging gusts or a tornado remain possible with these storms into early Sunday morning. High-res guidance suggests these storms may maintain intensity slightly farther east. The 5% wind are was moved eastward to account for the overnight/early morning risk for a few damaging gusts. Elsewhere, severe storms remain possible over parts of the Rockies and West Coast. The outlook remains largely unchanged. See the prior discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 04/11/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1205 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery reveals two shortwave troughs, one moving through the Great Basin and the other moving into central Mexico, progressing through the southwesterly flow aloft between the subtropical ridging that extends through the Southeast states and a deep upper low off the central West Coast. Steep mid-level lapse rates precede the northern shortwave (i.e. from the northern/central Rockies northeastward) and low-level moisture continues to advect northward across the southern and central Plains. Both of these factors will increase buoyancy ahead of these two shortwaves, which are expected to become increasingly phased as they progress northeastward throughout the day. This evolution will support a large area of thunderstorms from the northern Rockies through the southern Plains this afternoon/evening. Environmental conditions support strong to isolated severe thunderstorms across these areas, with a relatively higher chance of severe from the southern High Plains into central TX and along the eastern NE/KS border vicinity. Additionally, the West Coast upper low is forecast to progress east-southeastward into southern OR and northern/central CA this evening and overnight, supporting the potential for thunderstorms, a few of which could be strong. ...Southern High Plains into Central Texas... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across the southern High Plains as a shortwave trough lifts out of central Mexico and interacts with the moist and modestly buoyant airmass in places over the region. A few initially discrete storms are possible, and adequate deep-layer wind shear around 35 kt could result in a few instances of severe hail. However, weak capping and strong ascent should promote increasing thunderstorm coverage, resulting in a transition to a more clustered storm mode. Eventual evolution into one or more line segments is possible, particularly over southwest TX as low-level flow nocturnally strengthens and low-level moisture increases. As this transition occurs, damaging gust potential will become the predominant hazard. The strengthening low-level flow will also lengthen low-level hodograph, supporting the potential for an embedded circulation or two, particularly along the southern extent of whatever line develops. ...Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Recent surface analysis places a warm front across central KS. This warm front is forecast to progress northward throughout the day amid persistent southerly flow and resulting moderate/strong low-level moisture advection. Given the ongoing cloud cover across the region, as well as the showers and thunderstorms over northwest MO, there is some uncertainty to how this surface boundary will evolve. General expectation is for this front to extend from the central NE vicinity into north-central MO by this evening. Large, looping low-level hodographs are anticipated in the vicinity of this warm front. These profiles, along with dewpoints in the low/mid 60s and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, result in an environment that is conditionally favorable for supercells. However, some capping will likely linger across the region and large-scale forcing will be negligible, casting doubt to whether convective initiation will be realized. This uncertainty is matched by the CAM guidance, none of which establishes meaningful convection during the afternoon and evening. All that to say, if an updraft does mature in this environment, all severe hazards are possible, including a tornado. More certain (but less intense) thunderstorm potential is anticipated as low-level warm air advection becomes increasingly focused from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley this evening and overnight. Moderate elevated buoyancy and deep-layer shear support the potential for a few stronger updrafts capable of hail as thunderstorms expand northeastward from IA into the Upper Midwest. ...Northern/Central Rockies... Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated across the northern and central Rockies, ahead of a shortwave trough progressing northeastward into the region. Deep boundary-layer mixing ahead of this system coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will result in an environment that supports the potential for strong to severe gusts across much of the region. ...Northern/Central California Coast... A frontal band, associated with an upper low moving over the northern California coast tonight, is expected to progress southeastward through the central CA coastal vicinity this evening. Thermodynamic profiles appear marginally supportive of isolated convection deep enough to produce lightning. Winds within the lowest 1-2 km AGL should increase to around 40 kt as the wave moves onshore, which will contribute to the potential for convective downdrafts to produce a few locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Apr 11 20:04:02 UTC 2026.

MD 0378 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0378 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Areas affected...parts of southwestern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 111802Z - 112030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development by 3-5 PM CDT may include a couple of storms with potential to produce severe hail. It is not yet certain when, or if, a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends are being monitored for this possibility. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorm development has been slowly, but steadily, spreading across Chihuahua, into and across the international border area of southwest Texas. This appears to be occurring on the leading edge of forcing for ascent associated with a modest mid-level short wave trough and associated 30-50+ kt southwesterly 500 mb jet streak, which are forecast to continue across the mountains of southwest Texas and Pecos Valley vicinity through early evening. In advance of this activity, moist south-southeasterly low-level flow coupled with insolation, beneath weak mid-level cooling, are contributing to substantive destabilization. By 20-21Z, it appears that this may include mixed-layer CAPE increasing in excess of 1500 J/kg in at least a narrow corridor east of the Texas Big Bend through Fort Stockton and perhaps Wink/Midland vicinities. As thunderstorm activity acquires increasingly unstable inflow, coincident with strengthening deep-layer shear, intensification may yield a few supercell structures posing a risk for severe hail, before activity slowly consolidates and grows upscale later this afternoon. A brief tornado may not be entirely out of the question, but this potential will be limited by modest to weak low-level hodographs. And the risk for strong to severe surface gusts may be generally slow to develop, largely dependent on the evolution of persistent upscale growth supportive of developing lower/mid-tropospheric mesoscale convective vortices. ..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 29680173 28800282 29020374 30910329 31870332 32350234 31850171 29680173 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0379 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH INTO FAR SOUTHEAST IDAHO...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 0379 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Areas affected...portions of northern Utah into far southeast Idaho...extreme northwestern Colorado...southwestern Wyoming Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 111823Z - 112030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few severe gusts may occur with the stronger storms this afternoon, and an instance or two of hail cannot be completely ruled out. Severe threat should remain isolated. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been gradually increasing in coverage and intensity as a pronounced mid-level vorticity maximum overspreads the central Rockies, maximizing deep-layer ascent in the process. Breaks in the clouds have allowed for adequate surface heating and destabilization, with the 18Z SLC observed sounding showing 8+ C/km tropospheric lapse rates, yielding tall, thin CAPE profiles (with over 500 J/kg SBCAPE noted). Furthermore, the observed sounding depicts a relatively elongated, straight hodograph, with over 30 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, multicell storms should continue to develop through the afternoon. A 68 mph thunderstorm wind gust was observed in Rich County, UT, and additional severe gusts will remain the primary threat through the afternoon. An instance or two of hail may also occur. Overall, the severe threat should remain isolated, so a WW issuance is not currently expected. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH... LAT...LON 40421359 41501369 43031280 43761164 43891035 43510947 42630881 41670871 40790881 40180941 39931013 39871057 39911125 40421359 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0380 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL COLORADO INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 0380 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Areas affected...portions of central Colorado into northern New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 111841Z - 112045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple instances of severe wind or hail are possible with the stronger storms moving off of the higher terrain. DISCUSSION...Afternoon peak heating, the approach of an embedded mid-level impulse, and orographic lift, are all contributing to thunderstorm initiation and increasing coverage across portions of southern CO into northern NM. 40+ kts of southwesterly mid-level flow are overspreading the region, contributing to elongated hodographs and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear (per 18Z mesoanalysis/ABQ observed sounding). With 8+ C/km low- and mid-level lapse rates supporting close to 1000 J/kg of tall and thin SBCAPE, multicells should continue to develop through the day, accompanied by at least some risk for severe wind and hail. The severe threat should be isolated, with a WW not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...GJT... LAT...LON 35230609 36090723 36670771 37480781 38520675 39210560 39570474 39620406 39300354 38760332 38030337 37120361 36340395 35560474 35230609 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0381 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0381 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Areas affected...parts of central and northeastern Kansas...south central and southeastern Nebraska and adjacent portions of northwestern Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 111856Z - 112130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered strong to severe storm development is likely to gradually develop through 4-6 PM CDT. This may include a couple of supercell structures with potential to produce tornadoes, some severe hail and localized strong surface gusts. DISCUSSION...Low-level moistening and insolation are contributing to boundary-layer destabilization either side of a remnant convective outflow boundary, which is shifting north of the Interstate 70 corridor toward the central/eastern Nebraska and Kansas state border vicinity. This appears to be occurring beneath 30-35+ kt southerly 850 mb flow, which may undergo further strengthening through late afternoon. Within the better instability to the south of the outflow boundary, widely scattered thunderstorm development is already initiating downstream of a northeastward migrating MCV currently to the east/southeast of Dodge City, with deepening convective development also evident along the boundary, near Manhattan. With further insolation and weakening of inhibition, aided by weak large-scale ascent associated with warm advection, at least widely scattered intensifying thunderstorm development seems probable through late afternoon. Despite somewhat modest flow evident in forecast soundings around the 500 mb level, sizable clockwise curved low-level hodographs appear conducive to the development of supercell structures with potential to produce tornadoes, particularly near and just north of the retreating outflow boundary, and perhaps in close proximity to the the MCV. Otherwise, marginally severe hail and localized strong downbursts may not be out of the question in stronger cells. ..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 39709929 40459797 40229594 39389552 38769661 37439682 37709872 38679889 39269933 39709929 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Southwest and Four Corners... Increasing southwest flow aloft on the southern and southeastern periphery of a closed upper-level low over northern CA will overspread the Desert Southwest and Four Corners Sunday. Dry and well-mixed boundary layer conditions will support southwest surface winds of 15-20 mph amid 15-20% afternoon relative humidity across much of eastern UT the Four Corners and into the lowland deserts of southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Brief critical fire weather conditions including southwest winds of 20 mph with higher gusts and RH of around 10% are possible across southeastern AZ where fuels are still marginally receptive. ...Central High Plains... Increasing southwesterly flow aloft over the Colorado Plateau, lee surface troughing across the central High Plains and minimal rainfall from convection through tonight will support a favorable dry, downslope regime for Sunday across the high plains of CO and WY. Elevated highlights were extended westward along the CO Front Range where locally critical but brief fire weather conditions including southwest winds of around 20 mph and RH reductions to 10% are possible in favored terrain gaps. Farther north, a departing surface low across the Upper Midwest will enhance westerly winds across southwestern SD and western NE where west winds of 10-20 mph, RH falling to between 15-20% and dry fuels should align resulting in an elevated fire weather threat. ...Southern High Plains... Increasing westerly flow aloft and surface lee troughing across the Southern High Plains should support dry and breezy conditions across much of eastern NM Sunday. However, some rainfall is expected across NM tonight, which could mitigate fire weather concerns for the D2/Sunday period. However, an extension of elevated highlights may be warranted in subsequent forecast updates if rainfall extent and duration is minimal. ...Ohio River Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Southerly to southwesterly winds will increase Sunday across the OH River and middle MS River Valleys as surface high pressure slides eastward off the Mid Atlantic Coast. The dry return flow pattern should yield south/southwest winds of 10-15 mph coupled with a dry boundary layer supportive of minimum relative humidity of 25-35% by mid-afternoon. Exceptionally dry fuels with ERC values in the 95th to 99th percentiles amid ongoing drought combined with the dry and breezy conditions will promote an elevated fire weather threat for much of the OH River Valley. Latest model guidance warrants an expansion of Elevated highlights into the middle MS River Valley and northern MS/AL area. ..Williams.. 04/11/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level closed low is forecast to progress from the northern California coast into the Intermountain West, with broad west-southwesterly flow overspreading the Four Corners into the Great Plains on Sunday. Widespread dry and breezy conditions are expected, resulting in several areas of Elevated fire-weather highlights. ...Four Corners/Central High Plains... While represented by separate Elevated highlights, much of the area from southern Arizona/New Mexico into eastern Colorado/Wyoming and portions of western/central Nebraska and southern South Dakota will experience widespread dry and breezy conditions. Though fuels across portions of Arizona and New Mexico are more marginally receptive to ignition and spread, winds of 15-20 MPH and relative humidity as low as 10% will support at least Elevated wildfire concerns. Further east into the Central High Plains, fuels are largely at or exceeding the 98th annual ERC percentiles with winds forecast at 15-20 MPH and relative humidity at 10-15%. Locally Critical conditions may occur across areas just east of the Front Range of the Rockies, where topography results in an enhancement of the surface winds, or perhaps where a stronger downslope component of the winds develop. However, uncertainty in the duration and magnitude of Critical winds precludes highlights at this time. While meteorological conditions will reach Elevated status in the gap between these areas, recent wetting rainfall and less than receptive fuels will lessen the overall fire-weather concerns between the highlights. ...Ohio River Valley... While forecast relative humidity values are more variable, ranging from 25-35%, much of the lower Ohio River Valley is experiencing widespread moderate to severe drought. Fuels at or exceeding the 98th annual percentile for ERCs and southerly surface winds around 15 MPH will support Elevated fire-weather concerns amidst deeply mixed and dry boundary layer profiles. While instances of light to moderate precipitation may occur the prior afternoon/evening, this will do little to alleviate the overall fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Southwest and Four Corners... Increasing southwest flow aloft on the southern and southeastern periphery of a closed upper-level low over northern CA will overspread the Desert Southwest and Four Corners Sunday. Dry and well-mixed boundary layer conditions will support southwest surface winds of 15-20 mph amid 15-20% afternoon relative humidity across much of eastern UT the Four Corners and into the lowland deserts of southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Brief critical fire weather conditions including southwest winds of 20 mph with higher gusts and RH of around 10% are possible across southeastern AZ where fuels are still marginally receptive. ...Central High Plains... Increasing southwesterly flow aloft over the Colorado Plateau, lee surface troughing across the central High Plains and minimal rainfall from convection through tonight will support a favorable dry, downslope regime for Sunday across the high plains of CO and WY. Elevated highlights were extended westward along the CO Front Range where locally critical but brief fire weather conditions including southwest winds of around 20 mph and RH reductions to 10% are possible in favored terrain gaps. Farther north, a departing surface low across the Upper Midwest will enhance westerly winds across southwestern SD and western NE where west winds of 10-20 mph, RH falling to between 15-20% and dry fuels should align resulting in an elevated fire weather threat. ...Southern High Plains... Increasing westerly flow aloft and surface lee troughing across the Southern High Plains should support dry and breezy conditions across much of eastern NM Sunday. However, some rainfall is expected across NM tonight, which could mitigate fire weather concerns for the D2/Sunday period. However, an extension of elevated highlights may be warranted in subsequent forecast updates if rainfall extent and duration is minimal. ...Ohio River Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Southerly to southwesterly winds will increase Sunday across the OH River and middle MS River Valleys as surface high pressure slides eastward off the Mid Atlantic Coast. The dry return flow pattern should yield south/southwest winds of 10-15 mph coupled with a dry boundary layer supportive of minimum relative humidity of 25-35% by mid-afternoon. Exceptionally dry fuels with ERC values in the 95th to 99th percentiles amid ongoing drought combined with the dry and breezy conditions will promote an elevated fire weather threat for much of the OH River Valley. Latest model guidance warrants an expansion of Elevated highlights into the middle MS River Valley and northern MS/AL area. ..Williams.. 04/11/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level closed low is forecast to progress from the northern California coast into the Intermountain West, with broad west-southwesterly flow overspreading the Four Corners into the Great Plains on Sunday. Widespread dry and breezy conditions are expected, resulting in several areas of Elevated fire-weather highlights. ...Four Corners/Central High Plains... While represented by separate Elevated highlights, much of the area from southern Arizona/New Mexico into eastern Colorado/Wyoming and portions of western/central Nebraska and southern South Dakota will experience widespread dry and breezy conditions. Though fuels across portions of Arizona and New Mexico are more marginally receptive to ignition and spread, winds of 15-20 MPH and relative humidity as low as 10% will support at least Elevated wildfire concerns. Further east into the Central High Plains, fuels are largely at or exceeding the 98th annual ERC percentiles with winds forecast at 15-20 MPH and relative humidity at 10-15%. Locally Critical conditions may occur across areas just east of the Front Range of the Rockies, where topography results in an enhancement of the surface winds, or perhaps where a stronger downslope component of the winds develop. However, uncertainty in the duration and magnitude of Critical winds precludes highlights at this time. While meteorological conditions will reach Elevated status in the gap between these areas, recent wetting rainfall and less than receptive fuels will lessen the overall fire-weather concerns between the highlights. ...Ohio River Valley... While forecast relative humidity values are more variable, ranging from 25-35%, much of the lower Ohio River Valley is experiencing widespread moderate to severe drought. Fuels at or exceeding the 98th annual percentile for ERCs and southerly surface winds around 15 MPH will support Elevated fire-weather concerns amidst deeply mixed and dry boundary layer profiles. While instances of light to moderate precipitation may occur the prior afternoon/evening, this will do little to alleviate the overall fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region, and across portions of the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The pattern on D3/Monday will be characterized by continued mid-level troughing across the western US, shifting east into the Great Basin. Strong west to southwesterly flow will continue across the Rockies into the central Plains and Upper Midwest. A surface low will shift across SD/NE into the Upper Midwest, with attendant northward lifting warm front and eventual southward moving cold front. These features will be the focus of thunderstorm activity late Monday afternoon across MN/IA/WI will additional development likely into upper MI through the late evening. Across the southern/central Plains, a surface dryline will extend from central KS into western OK/southwest TX. Strong daytime heating will occur along and ahead of the dryline with an increase in the low-level jet by the late afternoon/evening and potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. ...Upper Midwest... Across the Upper Midwest, southerly flow will usher low to mid 60s dew points northwards into portions of IA/WI/MN as a surface low shifts eastward. The exact northern extent of this moisture remains uncertain, however it does appear that thunderstorms will develop near the low and along or north of the effective warm front across some portion of IA/MN border, perhaps as far west as southeastern SD/northern NE. Steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated hodographs suggest large to very large hail (some 2-2.5+ inch in diameter) will be possible both within the warm sector and with any elevated storms on the cool side of the boundary. Some consideration was given to introduction a 30% area, primarily concerning the hail risk, across the IA/MN border. There still remains uncertainty in guidance of the coverage of storms in the open warm sector. Through time, storms may consolidate with a shift to damaging wind potential. For now, opted to expand the Marginal and Slight Risks further west into the Dakotas but maintain 15% probabilities. ...Central/Southern Plains... A more conditional threat for thunderstorms will be possible across the dryline in the central/southern Plains. Through the day, the environment looks to remain largely capped. Beneath this, strong daytime heating will yield moderate to strong CAPE within a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Into the late afternoon/evening, the low-level jet will increase and this may support development of isolated thunderstorm activity along and ahead of the dryline. Should this occur, the environment will favor supercells capable of large to very large hail, damaging wind, and a couple of tornadoes. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region, and across portions of the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The pattern on D3/Monday will be characterized by continued mid-level troughing across the western US, shifting east into the Great Basin. Strong west to southwesterly flow will continue across the Rockies into the central Plains and Upper Midwest. A surface low will shift across SD/NE into the Upper Midwest, with attendant northward lifting warm front and eventual southward moving cold front. These features will be the focus of thunderstorm activity late Monday afternoon across MN/IA/WI will additional development likely into upper MI through the late evening. Across the southern/central Plains, a surface dryline will extend from central KS into western OK/southwest TX. Strong daytime heating will occur along and ahead of the dryline with an increase in the low-level jet by the late afternoon/evening and potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. ...Upper Midwest... Across the Upper Midwest, southerly flow will usher low to mid 60s dew points northwards into portions of IA/WI/MN as a surface low shifts eastward. The exact northern extent of this moisture remains uncertain, however it does appear that thunderstorms will develop near the low and along or north of the effective warm front across some portion of IA/MN border, perhaps as far west as southeastern SD/northern NE. Steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated hodographs suggest large to very large hail (some 2-2.5+ inch in diameter) will be possible both within the warm sector and with any elevated storms on the cool side of the boundary. Some consideration was given to introduction a 30% area, primarily concerning the hail risk, across the IA/MN border. There still remains uncertainty in guidance of the coverage of storms in the open warm sector. Through time, storms may consolidate with a shift to damaging wind potential. For now, opted to expand the Marginal and Slight Risks further west into the Dakotas but maintain 15% probabilities. ...Central/Southern Plains... A more conditional threat for thunderstorms will be possible across the dryline in the central/southern Plains. Through the day, the environment looks to remain largely capped. Beneath this, strong daytime heating will yield moderate to strong CAPE within a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Into the late afternoon/evening, the low-level jet will increase and this may support development of isolated thunderstorm activity along and ahead of the dryline. Should this occur, the environment will favor supercells capable of large to very large hail, damaging wind, and a couple of tornadoes. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. ...Synopsis... On Sunday, an upper-level low will move inland across the West Coast while ridging continues across the eastern US. Broad southwesterly flow will propagate across the Rockies and into the Plains, with several shortwaves troughs pivoting through the plains into the upper Midwest. This pattern will favor lee troughing in the lee of the Rockies. Across the southern/central Plains, southerly surface flow will usher in moisture northward all the way from the southern Plains into the upper Mid-west ahead of surface trough/dryline oriented across eastern NE into central KS, arcing south/southwest into northwest OK and western TX. It is likely that widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be ongoing at the start of the D2/Sunday period across TX/OK and across central/northern MN. Some re-intensification of convection will be possible across portions of central/eastern Texas. Additional activity is expected to develop by the afternoon in the vicinity of the dryline and across the Sierra Madre in Mexico. ...Central/Southern Plains... In the wake of morning convection across portions of western Texas into the OK/TX Panhandles, strong southwesterly flow will continue to advect warm moist boundary layer conditions and a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates. HREF guidance shows persistent mid to high level clouds remaining in place across the region through the early afternoon. It is likely that with mixing/heating some breaks in this cloud cover will allow for sheltered heating and air mass recovery. Most guidance suggests MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg will be common from western Texas into western/central OK and southern KS. Given the nebulous forcing, convective initiation in the afternoon will likely be tied initially to the dryline circulation from western Texas into western Oklahoma and high terrain in Mexico. Generally linear hodographs and the steep lapse rate profiles will support risk for large to very large hail and strong to severe winds. Additional more isolated development may occur across the dryline in KS/NE. With any supercells that can maintain a semi-discrete mode, perhaps a tornado or two will be possible. ...Upper Midwest... Re-development of thunderstorm activity across the Upper Midwest remains less certain Sunday afternoon. The mid-level wave will advance eastward with a warm front lifting into Canada and surface low tracking northeast. Most CAM guidance produces little to no thunderstorm activity likely owing to the forcing shifting eastward too quickly. HREF calibrated thunder signals also remain low. The environment will be conditionally unstable, with MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg overlapping favorable low-level and deep layer shear profiles. Should an isolated storm or two occur, the potential will remain for large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts are possible across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon and evening. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Rockies, central Plains, upper Mississippi Valley, and portions of the California coast. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery reveals two shortwave troughs, one moving through the Great Basin and the other moving into central Mexico, progressing through the southwesterly flow aloft between the subtropical ridging that extends through the Southeast states and a deep upper low off the central West Coast. Steep mid-level lapse rates precede the northern shortwave (i.e. from the northern/central Rockies northeastward) and low-level moisture continues to advect northward across the southern and central Plains. Both of these factors will increase buoyancy ahead of these two shortwaves, which are expected to become increasingly phased as they progress northeastward throughout the day. This evolution will support a large area of thunderstorms from the northern Rockies through the southern Plains this afternoon/evening. Environmental conditions support strong to isolated severe thunderstorms across these areas, with a relatively higher chance of severe from the southern High Plains into central TX and along the eastern NE/KS border vicinity. Additionally, the West Coast upper low is forecast to progress east-southeastward into southern OR and northern/central CA this evening and overnight, supporting the potential for thunderstorms, a few of which could be strong. ...Southern High Plains into Central Texas... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across the southern High Plains as a shortwave trough lifts out of central Mexico and interacts with the moist and modestly buoyant airmass in places over the region. A few initially discrete storms are possible, and adequate deep-layer wind shear around 35 kt could result in a few instances of severe hail. However, weak capping and strong ascent should promote increasing thunderstorm coverage, resulting in a transition to a more clustered storm mode. Eventual evolution into one or more line segments is possible, particularly over southwest TX as low-level flow nocturnally strengthens and low-level moisture increases. As this transition occurs, damaging gust potential will become the predominant hazard. The strengthening low-level flow will also lengthen low-level hodograph, supporting the potential for an embedded circulation or two, particularly along the southern extent of whatever line develops. ...Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Recent surface analysis places a warm front across central KS. This warm front is forecast to progress northward throughout the day amid persistent southerly flow and resulting moderate/strong low-level moisture advection. Given the ongoing cloud cover across the region, as well as the showers and thunderstorms over northwest MO, there is some uncertainty to how this surface boundary will evolve. General expectation is for this front to extend from the central NE vicinity into north-central MO by this evening. Large, looping low-level hodographs are anticipated in the vicinity of this warm front. These profiles, along with dewpoints in the low/mid 60s and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, result in an environment that is conditionally favorable for supercells. However, some capping will likely linger across the region and large-scale forcing will be negligible, casting doubt to whether convective initiation will be realized. This uncertainty is matched by the CAM guidance, none of which establishes meaningful convection during the afternoon and evening. All that to say, if an updraft does mature in this environment, all severe hazards are possible, including a tornado. More certain (but less intense) thunderstorm potential is anticipated as low-level warm air advection becomes increasingly focused from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley this evening and overnight. Moderate elevated buoyancy and deep-layer shear support the potential for a few stronger updrafts capable of hail as thunderstorms expand northeastward from IA into the Upper Midwest. ...Northern/Central Rockies... Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated across the northern and central Rockies, ahead of a shortwave trough progressing northeastward into the region. Deep boundary-layer mixing ahead of this system coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will result in an environment that supports the potential for strong to severe gusts across much of the region. ...Northern/Central California Coast... A frontal band, associated with an upper low moving over the northern California coast tonight, is expected to progress southeastward through the central CA coastal vicinity this evening. Thermodynamic profiles appear marginally supportive of isolated convection deep enough to produce lightning. Winds within the lowest 1-2 km AGL should increase to around 40 kt as the wave moves onshore, which will contribute to the potential for convective downdrafts to produce a few locally damaging wind gusts. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 04/11/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts are possible across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon and evening. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Rockies, central Plains, upper Mississippi Valley, and portions of the California coast. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery reveals two shortwave troughs, one moving through the Great Basin and the other moving into central Mexico, progressing through the southwesterly flow aloft between the subtropical ridging that extends through the Southeast states and a deep upper low off the central West Coast. Steep mid-level lapse rates precede the northern shortwave (i.e. from the northern/central Rockies northeastward) and low-level moisture continues to advect northward across the southern and central Plains. Both of these factors will increase buoyancy ahead of these two shortwaves, which are expected to become increasingly phased as they progress northeastward throughout the day. This evolution will support a large area of thunderstorms from the northern Rockies through the southern Plains this afternoon/evening. Environmental conditions support strong to isolated severe thunderstorms across these areas, with a relatively higher chance of severe from the southern High Plains into central TX and along the eastern NE/KS border vicinity. Additionally, the West Coast upper low is forecast to progress east-southeastward into southern OR and northern/central CA this evening and overnight, supporting the potential for thunderstorms, a few of which could be strong. ...Southern High Plains into Central Texas... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across the southern High Plains as a shortwave trough lifts out of central Mexico and interacts with the moist and modestly buoyant airmass in places over the region. A few initially discrete storms are possible, and adequate deep-layer wind shear around 35 kt could result in a few instances of severe hail. However, weak capping and strong ascent should promote increasing thunderstorm coverage, resulting in a transition to a more clustered storm mode. Eventual evolution into one or more line segments is possible, particularly over southwest TX as low-level flow nocturnally strengthens and low-level moisture increases. As this transition occurs, damaging gust potential will become the predominant hazard. The strengthening low-level flow will also lengthen low-level hodograph, supporting the potential for an embedded circulation or two, particularly along the southern extent of whatever line develops. ...Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Recent surface analysis places a warm front across central KS. This warm front is forecast to progress northward throughout the day amid persistent southerly flow and resulting moderate/strong low-level moisture advection. Given the ongoing cloud cover across the region, as well as the showers and thunderstorms over northwest MO, there is some uncertainty to how this surface boundary will evolve. General expectation is for this front to extend from the central NE vicinity into north-central MO by this evening. Large, looping low-level hodographs are anticipated in the vicinity of this warm front. These profiles, along with dewpoints in the low/mid 60s and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, result in an environment that is conditionally favorable for supercells. However, some capping will likely linger across the region and large-scale forcing will be negligible, casting doubt to whether convective initiation will be realized. This uncertainty is matched by the CAM guidance, none of which establishes meaningful convection during the afternoon and evening. All that to say, if an updraft does mature in this environment, all severe hazards are possible, including a tornado. More certain (but less intense) thunderstorm potential is anticipated as low-level warm air advection becomes increasingly focused from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley this evening and overnight. Moderate elevated buoyancy and deep-layer shear support the potential for a few stronger updrafts capable of hail as thunderstorms expand northeastward from IA into the Upper Midwest. ...Northern/Central Rockies... Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated across the northern and central Rockies, ahead of a shortwave trough progressing northeastward into the region. Deep boundary-layer mixing ahead of this system coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will result in an environment that supports the potential for strong to severe gusts across much of the region. ...Northern/Central California Coast... A frontal band, associated with an upper low moving over the northern California coast tonight, is expected to progress southeastward through the central CA coastal vicinity this evening. Thermodynamic profiles appear marginally supportive of isolated convection deep enough to produce lightning. Winds within the lowest 1-2 km AGL should increase to around 40 kt as the wave moves onshore, which will contribute to the potential for convective downdrafts to produce a few locally damaging wind gusts. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 04/11/2026 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Apr 11 17:08:01 UTC 2026.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...Eastern Wyoming into the Central High Plains... An approaching mid-level short wave and associated increasing shear and instability aloft in conjunction with a dry and well mixed sub-cloud layer, will support quick moving isolated showers and dry thunderstorms with minimal precipitation this afternoon across southeastern WY and portions of the central High Plains today. An evolving lee surface trough will also promote dry and breezy conditions across much of eastern WY, southwestern SD and northwestern NE as southwest winds of 15-20 mph and relative humidity in the 15-20% range align over receptive fuels. Elevated highlights were extended westward to include downslope favored areas in the lee of the Bighorn Mountains in north-central WY based on current surface observations and short term model guidance. ...Southern Great Basin... Dry and breezy conditions are expected under passing mid-level short wave and associated enhanced southwest flow aloft. Southwest winds of around 15 to 20 mph and relative afternoon humidity of 10-15% within a deep, well-mixed boundary layer will support elevated fire weather conditions for portions of the southern NV, UT and northern AZ today. However, marginal fuel receptiveness should limit wildfire spread potential which precluded introduction of Elevated highlights. ...Southeast... A very dry air mass coupled with exceptionally dry fuels will persist across much of the Southeast today under an upper-level ridge. Relative humidity falling to 20-30% by mid-afternoon (locally 15% in the Piedmont regions of northern GA and western SC) will be common across the region. However, a diffuse surface pressure gradient in place will support light surface and boundary layer winds through the afternoon, limiting a more significant fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 04/11/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level toughing over the Western U.S. with an embedded shortwave will be responsible for both isolated dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions across portions of eastern Wyoming into the Central High Plains. ...Eastern Wyoming into the Central High Plains... Broad southwesterly flow and a weak embedded jet streak associated with a mid-level shortwave trough will overspread the Rockies, resulting in lee troughing and a developing/deepening surface low over eastern Montana. Dry and breezy boundary layer conditions will overspread receptive fuels across eastern Wyoming into far western South Dakota/Nebraska and portions of far northern Colorado, with surface winds of 15-20 MPH and relative humidity of 15-20%. Dry thunderstorm potential will overlap these Elevated fire-weather concerns owing to deep, dry, and well-mixed boundary layer profiles resulting in limited precipitation efficiency amidst an otherwise convectively unstable regime. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...Eastern Wyoming into the Central High Plains... An approaching mid-level short wave and associated increasing shear and instability aloft in conjunction with a dry and well mixed sub-cloud layer, will support quick moving isolated showers and dry thunderstorms with minimal precipitation this afternoon across southeastern WY and portions of the central High Plains today. An evolving lee surface trough will also promote dry and breezy conditions across much of eastern WY, southwestern SD and northwestern NE as southwest winds of 15-20 mph and relative humidity in the 15-20% range align over receptive fuels. Elevated highlights were extended westward to include downslope favored areas in the lee of the Bighorn Mountains in north-central WY based on current surface observations and short term model guidance. ...Southern Great Basin... Dry and breezy conditions are expected under passing mid-level short wave and associated enhanced southwest flow aloft. Southwest winds of around 15 to 20 mph and relative afternoon humidity of 10-15% within a deep, well-mixed boundary layer will support elevated fire weather conditions for portions of the southern NV, UT and northern AZ today. However, marginal fuel receptiveness should limit wildfire spread potential which precluded introduction of Elevated highlights. ...Southeast... A very dry air mass coupled with exceptionally dry fuels will persist across much of the Southeast today under an upper-level ridge. Relative humidity falling to 20-30% by mid-afternoon (locally 15% in the Piedmont regions of northern GA and western SC) will be common across the region. However, a diffuse surface pressure gradient in place will support light surface and boundary layer winds through the afternoon, limiting a more significant fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 04/11/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level toughing over the Western U.S. with an embedded shortwave will be responsible for both isolated dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions across portions of eastern Wyoming into the Central High Plains. ...Eastern Wyoming into the Central High Plains... Broad southwesterly flow and a weak embedded jet streak associated with a mid-level shortwave trough will overspread the Rockies, resulting in lee troughing and a developing/deepening surface low over eastern Montana. Dry and breezy boundary layer conditions will overspread receptive fuels across eastern Wyoming into far western South Dakota/Nebraska and portions of far northern Colorado, with surface winds of 15-20 MPH and relative humidity of 15-20%. Dry thunderstorm potential will overlap these Elevated fire-weather concerns owing to deep, dry, and well-mixed boundary layer profiles resulting in limited precipitation efficiency amidst an otherwise convectively unstable regime. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more