Storm Prediction Center

WW 100 SEVERE TSTM TX 120325Z - 120900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 100 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of The Edwards Plateau of Texas * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1025 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A line of storms with embedded bowing segments/circulations will spread eastward into areas near and north through northeast of Del Rio through the early morning hours. Occasional damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, an isolated tornado or two, and isolated large hail near 1 inch in diameter will be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles north northwest of Junction TX to 20 miles south southwest of Del Rio TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Thompson Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region, and across portions of the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The persistent/stagnant southwesterly flow regime will continue from the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest on Monday. Low-amplitude upper ridging will move across the Upper Midwest during the day ahead of a shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains. The shortwave will shift east across the Great Lakes overnight. Meanwhile, an upper trough from the northern Rockies to offshore the southern CA coast will pivot eastward toward the Four Corners region. At the surface, low pressure near the SD/NE border will develop east along the MN/IA border to central WI. Meanwhile, lee troughing will persist across the Plains. A dryline will extend southwest from the Mid-MO Valley into western OK/TX, while a warm front extends from southern MN into southern/central WI. These boundaries will become a focus for severe thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. ...Upper Midwest... Strengthening southerly low-level flow will transport low to mid 60s F dewpoints northward toward southern MN and southern/central WI. Meanwhile, a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region. Capping will likely suppress thunderstorm activity for much of the day as the shortwave upper ridge moves across the region. By late afternoon/early evening, height falls are forecast to overspread the area and thunderstorms are expected to develop as a strengthening low-level jet overspreads the warm front ahead of an eastward-progressing surface low. Initial thunderstorm activity may be, or quickly become, elevated to the cool side of the warm front given northeast storm motion. Nevertheless, supercell wind profiles, cool temperatures/steep lapse rates aloft, and moderate to strong instability will support large hail potential. If surface-based warm sector storms can develop, supercells capable of all hazards will be possible. While this evolution is uncertain, it appears most probable from southeast MN toward south/south-central WI. Convection will spread eastward with time into MI, continuing to pose a risk for hail overnight. ...Southern Plains... A conditional supercell environment will exist along/east of the surface dryline from portions of western/central OK toward the TX Big Bend. Given a lack of height falls across the region, capping will likely suppress convection. However, strong heating along the dryline will promote mixing. Confluence low-level flow along the dryline coupled with strong instability and mixing may be sufficient for a couple of storms during the late afternoon/evening as a modest low-level jet develops. While conditional, if a storm can develop, supercell wind profiles suggest large hail, strong gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible. ..Leitman.. 04/12/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region, and across portions of the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The persistent/stagnant southwesterly flow regime will continue from the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest on Monday. Low-amplitude upper ridging will move across the Upper Midwest during the day ahead of a shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains. The shortwave will shift east across the Great Lakes overnight. Meanwhile, an upper trough from the northern Rockies to offshore the southern CA coast will pivot eastward toward the Four Corners region. At the surface, low pressure near the SD/NE border will develop east along the MN/IA border to central WI. Meanwhile, lee troughing will persist across the Plains. A dryline will extend southwest from the Mid-MO Valley into western OK/TX, while a warm front extends from southern MN into southern/central WI. These boundaries will become a focus for severe thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. ...Upper Midwest... Strengthening southerly low-level flow will transport low to mid 60s F dewpoints northward toward southern MN and southern/central WI. Meanwhile, a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region. Capping will likely suppress thunderstorm activity for much of the day as the shortwave upper ridge moves across the region. By late afternoon/early evening, height falls are forecast to overspread the area and thunderstorms are expected to develop as a strengthening low-level jet overspreads the warm front ahead of an eastward-progressing surface low. Initial thunderstorm activity may be, or quickly become, elevated to the cool side of the warm front given northeast storm motion. Nevertheless, supercell wind profiles, cool temperatures/steep lapse rates aloft, and moderate to strong instability will support large hail potential. If surface-based warm sector storms can develop, supercells capable of all hazards will be possible. While this evolution is uncertain, it appears most probable from southeast MN toward south/south-central WI. Convection will spread eastward with time into MI, continuing to pose a risk for hail overnight. ...Southern Plains... A conditional supercell environment will exist along/east of the surface dryline from portions of western/central OK toward the TX Big Bend. Given a lack of height falls across the region, capping will likely suppress convection. However, strong heating along the dryline will promote mixing. Confluence low-level flow along the dryline coupled with strong instability and mixing may be sufficient for a couple of storms during the late afternoon/evening as a modest low-level jet develops. While conditional, if a storm can develop, supercell wind profiles suggest large hail, strong gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible. ..Leitman.. 04/12/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region, and across portions of the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The persistent/stagnant southwesterly flow regime will continue from the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest on Monday. Low-amplitude upper ridging will move across the Upper Midwest during the day ahead of a shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains. The shortwave will shift east across the Great Lakes overnight. Meanwhile, an upper trough from the northern Rockies to offshore the southern CA coast will pivot eastward toward the Four Corners region. At the surface, low pressure near the SD/NE border will develop east along the MN/IA border to central WI. Meanwhile, lee troughing will persist across the Plains. A dryline will extend southwest from the Mid-MO Valley into western OK/TX, while a warm front extends from southern MN into southern/central WI. These boundaries will become a focus for severe thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. ...Upper Midwest... Strengthening southerly low-level flow will transport low to mid 60s F dewpoints northward toward southern MN and southern/central WI. Meanwhile, a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region. Capping will likely suppress thunderstorm activity for much of the day as the shortwave upper ridge moves across the region. By late afternoon/early evening, height falls are forecast to overspread the area and thunderstorms are expected to develop as a strengthening low-level jet overspreads the warm front ahead of an eastward-progressing surface low. Initial thunderstorm activity may be, or quickly become, elevated to the cool side of the warm front given northeast storm motion. Nevertheless, supercell wind profiles, cool temperatures/steep lapse rates aloft, and moderate to strong instability will support large hail potential. If surface-based warm sector storms can develop, supercells capable of all hazards will be possible. While this evolution is uncertain, it appears most probable from southeast MN toward south/south-central WI. Convection will spread eastward with time into MI, continuing to pose a risk for hail overnight. ...Southern Plains... A conditional supercell environment will exist along/east of the surface dryline from portions of western/central OK toward the TX Big Bend. Given a lack of height falls across the region, capping will likely suppress convection. However, strong heating along the dryline will promote mixing. Confluence low-level flow along the dryline coupled with strong instability and mixing may be sufficient for a couple of storms during the late afternoon/evening as a modest low-level jet develops. While conditional, if a storm can develop, supercell wind profiles suggest large hail, strong gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible. ..Leitman.. 04/12/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern High Plains. More isolated severe storms will be possible across portions of the Upper Great Lakes and northern Rockies. ...Synopsis... Early-morning surface observations reveal a surface low developing across the northern High Plains with a broad fetch of southerly flow from the western Gulf into the Plains and Midwest. This broad warm sector characterized by mid 50s to low/mid 60s dewpoints will largely remain in place through the day as the surface low translates east across the Plains into the Great Lakes region tonight. The greatest potential for strong/severe thunderstorms will reside within this warm sector where regional forcing for ascent will support a chance for deep convection. ...Southern Plains... Latest 00z HREF/REFS guidance, as well as more recent CAM solutions, all show considerable variability in the evolution of an ongoing MCS through late morning across southern/southeast TX. While most solutions depict a steady weakening trend, others - notably the WRF-ARW - hint at some continued wind threat across the TX Coastal Plain this morning. Regardless, this activity is forecast to diminish by late morning/early afternoon, and will likely leave an outflow boundary on the western periphery of the cold pool in its wake. Dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will quickly return northward in the wake of the MCS with ensemble guidance depicting a plume of MLCAPE values between 1500-2000 J/kg from central TX into western OK by mid-afternoon. Thunderstorm development appears possible along any residual outflow boundaries across central TX given weak capping depicted in forecast soundings, though confidence in precisely where this will occur or how widespread storm coverage will be remains fairly uncertain. Thunderstorm initiation off the Sierra Del Carmen mountains in northern Mexico and along a weak dryline across southern KS southward into western OK/TX appears more probable, though again, storm coverage will likely remain fairly isolated given weak forcing for ascent and some degree of synoptic-scale subsidence in the wake of the upper disturbance currently passing over the region. Convection that can develop within this buoyant and weakly capped environment could become fairly intense given favorable thermodynamic profiles. Despite some mid-level backing in forecast hodographs, effective bulk shear values appear sufficient for a large, to perhaps very large hail threat. However, given the aforementioned uncertainties in thunderstorm coverage, 15% hail probabilities have been confined to where ensemble guidance depicts the best overall convective signal. ...Minnesota... A lee cyclone evident in recent surface observations over the northern High Plains will migrate eastward along the U.S./Canaidan border through the day, reaching northern MN by around peak heating. A narrow tongue of returning moisture may support a corridor of sufficient ascent and buoyancy for deep convection. While latest guidance remains somewhat mixed on thunderstorm coverage, forecast soundings suggest elevated convection may support a threat for large hail. Furthermore, several high-res forecast soundings depict an environment favorable for surface-based supercells along the frontal zone where dewpoints may reach into the mid/upper 50s. While this potential appears very low per recent ensemble guidance, some tornado threat could materialize along the front where STP values of 1-2 may emerge. ...Northern Rockies... A plume of mid-level moisture (PWATs between 0.4 to 0.5 inches) was recently observed in regional 00z RAOBs across the Great Basin region. This air mass will largely remain in place over the next 24 hours ahead of an approaching upper low out of northern CA. This mid-level moisture will support another day of fairly modest surface-based buoyancy (around 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE), but persistent 30-40 knot flow within the CAPE-bearing layer combined with somewhat deep boundary-layer mixing (LCLs forecast to be around 2 km) may support another day of strong to severe downburst winds with the more robust convective cells. ..Moore/Halbert.. 04/12/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern High Plains. More isolated severe storms will be possible across portions of the Upper Great Lakes and northern Rockies. ...Synopsis... Early-morning surface observations reveal a surface low developing across the northern High Plains with a broad fetch of southerly flow from the western Gulf into the Plains and Midwest. This broad warm sector characterized by mid 50s to low/mid 60s dewpoints will largely remain in place through the day as the surface low translates east across the Plains into the Great Lakes region tonight. The greatest potential for strong/severe thunderstorms will reside within this warm sector where regional forcing for ascent will support a chance for deep convection. ...Southern Plains... Latest 00z HREF/REFS guidance, as well as more recent CAM solutions, all show considerable variability in the evolution of an ongoing MCS through late morning across southern/southeast TX. While most solutions depict a steady weakening trend, others - notably the WRF-ARW - hint at some continued wind threat across the TX Coastal Plain this morning. Regardless, this activity is forecast to diminish by late morning/early afternoon, and will likely leave an outflow boundary on the western periphery of the cold pool in its wake. Dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will quickly return northward in the wake of the MCS with ensemble guidance depicting a plume of MLCAPE values between 1500-2000 J/kg from central TX into western OK by mid-afternoon. Thunderstorm development appears possible along any residual outflow boundaries across central TX given weak capping depicted in forecast soundings, though confidence in precisely where this will occur or how widespread storm coverage will be remains fairly uncertain. Thunderstorm initiation off the Sierra Del Carmen mountains in northern Mexico and along a weak dryline across southern KS southward into western OK/TX appears more probable, though again, storm coverage will likely remain fairly isolated given weak forcing for ascent and some degree of synoptic-scale subsidence in the wake of the upper disturbance currently passing over the region. Convection that can develop within this buoyant and weakly capped environment could become fairly intense given favorable thermodynamic profiles. Despite some mid-level backing in forecast hodographs, effective bulk shear values appear sufficient for a large, to perhaps very large hail threat. However, given the aforementioned uncertainties in thunderstorm coverage, 15% hail probabilities have been confined to where ensemble guidance depicts the best overall convective signal. ...Minnesota... A lee cyclone evident in recent surface observations over the northern High Plains will migrate eastward along the U.S./Canaidan border through the day, reaching northern MN by around peak heating. A narrow tongue of returning moisture may support a corridor of sufficient ascent and buoyancy for deep convection. While latest guidance remains somewhat mixed on thunderstorm coverage, forecast soundings suggest elevated convection may support a threat for large hail. Furthermore, several high-res forecast soundings depict an environment favorable for surface-based supercells along the frontal zone where dewpoints may reach into the mid/upper 50s. While this potential appears very low per recent ensemble guidance, some tornado threat could materialize along the front where STP values of 1-2 may emerge. ...Northern Rockies... A plume of mid-level moisture (PWATs between 0.4 to 0.5 inches) was recently observed in regional 00z RAOBs across the Great Basin region. This air mass will largely remain in place over the next 24 hours ahead of an approaching upper low out of northern CA. This mid-level moisture will support another day of fairly modest surface-based buoyancy (around 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE), but persistent 30-40 knot flow within the CAPE-bearing layer combined with somewhat deep boundary-layer mixing (LCLs forecast to be around 2 km) may support another day of strong to severe downburst winds with the more robust convective cells. ..Moore/Halbert.. 04/12/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern High Plains. More isolated severe storms will be possible across portions of the Upper Great Lakes and northern Rockies. ...Synopsis... Early-morning surface observations reveal a surface low developing across the northern High Plains with a broad fetch of southerly flow from the western Gulf into the Plains and Midwest. This broad warm sector characterized by mid 50s to low/mid 60s dewpoints will largely remain in place through the day as the surface low translates east across the Plains into the Great Lakes region tonight. The greatest potential for strong/severe thunderstorms will reside within this warm sector where regional forcing for ascent will support a chance for deep convection. ...Southern Plains... Latest 00z HREF/REFS guidance, as well as more recent CAM solutions, all show considerable variability in the evolution of an ongoing MCS through late morning across southern/southeast TX. While most solutions depict a steady weakening trend, others - notably the WRF-ARW - hint at some continued wind threat across the TX Coastal Plain this morning. Regardless, this activity is forecast to diminish by late morning/early afternoon, and will likely leave an outflow boundary on the western periphery of the cold pool in its wake. Dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will quickly return northward in the wake of the MCS with ensemble guidance depicting a plume of MLCAPE values between 1500-2000 J/kg from central TX into western OK by mid-afternoon. Thunderstorm development appears possible along any residual outflow boundaries across central TX given weak capping depicted in forecast soundings, though confidence in precisely where this will occur or how widespread storm coverage will be remains fairly uncertain. Thunderstorm initiation off the Sierra Del Carmen mountains in northern Mexico and along a weak dryline across southern KS southward into western OK/TX appears more probable, though again, storm coverage will likely remain fairly isolated given weak forcing for ascent and some degree of synoptic-scale subsidence in the wake of the upper disturbance currently passing over the region. Convection that can develop within this buoyant and weakly capped environment could become fairly intense given favorable thermodynamic profiles. Despite some mid-level backing in forecast hodographs, effective bulk shear values appear sufficient for a large, to perhaps very large hail threat. However, given the aforementioned uncertainties in thunderstorm coverage, 15% hail probabilities have been confined to where ensemble guidance depicts the best overall convective signal. ...Minnesota... A lee cyclone evident in recent surface observations over the northern High Plains will migrate eastward along the U.S./Canaidan border through the day, reaching northern MN by around peak heating. A narrow tongue of returning moisture may support a corridor of sufficient ascent and buoyancy for deep convection. While latest guidance remains somewhat mixed on thunderstorm coverage, forecast soundings suggest elevated convection may support a threat for large hail. Furthermore, several high-res forecast soundings depict an environment favorable for surface-based supercells along the frontal zone where dewpoints may reach into the mid/upper 50s. While this potential appears very low per recent ensemble guidance, some tornado threat could materialize along the front where STP values of 1-2 may emerge. ...Northern Rockies... A plume of mid-level moisture (PWATs between 0.4 to 0.5 inches) was recently observed in regional 00z RAOBs across the Great Basin region. This air mass will largely remain in place over the next 24 hours ahead of an approaching upper low out of northern CA. This mid-level moisture will support another day of fairly modest surface-based buoyancy (around 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE), but persistent 30-40 knot flow within the CAPE-bearing layer combined with somewhat deep boundary-layer mixing (LCLs forecast to be around 2 km) may support another day of strong to severe downburst winds with the more robust convective cells. ..Moore/Halbert.. 04/12/2026 Read more

MD 0385 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 100... FOR EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0385 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Areas affected...Edwards Plateau into parts of north-central TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 100... Valid 120452Z - 120615Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 100 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe gusts and a brief tornado remain possible into the overnight hours. DISCUSSION...A loosely organized QLCS has evolved across parts of Edwards Plateau, with multiple embedded bowing segments noted from east of San Angelo to north of Del Rio. Organized storm structures are expected to persist into the early overnight hours, given favorable moisture, effective SRH (generally in the 100-200 m2/s2 range) and moderate deep-layer shear. However, the magnitude of the threat may be tempered to some extent by the modest buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) and weak low-level lapse rates. Strong to locally severe gusts will continue to be possible with any persistent bowing segments, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out given the presence of sufficient low-level shear. Some severe threat may develop east and north of WW 100, though the need for local watch expansion or new watch issuance will be dependent on short-term observational trends regarding convective vigor and organization into the early morning. ..Dean/Thompson.. 04/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 29490071 30430023 31449968 31789975 32669910 32999899 32919826 32249819 31539833 31339842 30409891 29319987 29180027 29190086 29490071 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0384 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR TX HILL COUNTRY AND VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0384 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Areas affected...TX Hill Country and vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 120300Z - 120500Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Some uptick in the severe threat is possible late tonight. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are ongoing late this evening across parts of the TX Hill Country and Edwards Plateau. With potential MCV development associated with the ongoing convection, and a mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaching the region from northern Mexico, widespread convection is expected to continue into the early overnight hours and eventually spread eastward into a larger portion of central TX. While strong embedded cells have occasionally been noted within the larger area of convection, storms have struggled to attain severe intensity thus far. The 00Z DRT sounding depicted a remnant EML in the 700-500 mb layer, but poor lapse rates both below and above this layer are constraining available buoyancy, with MLCAPE generally in the 500-1000 J/kg range (locally greater near the international border). Still, effective shear of 30-40 kt will support occasional supercell structures, with potential for localized hail. Strengthening low-level shear/SRH (as noted on the KDFX and KEWX VWPs) could also support a brief tornado threat with any persistent supercells. Upscale growth one or more bowing segments, or possibly a QLCS, will be possible with time as storm coverage continues to increase within the moist environment. This could result in an increasing threat of strong to locally severe gusts and perhaps a line-embedded tornado, though generally weak low-level lapse rates may temper these threats to some extent. The need for watch issuance across this region remains uncertain due to the potentially limited magnitude of the threat, but trends will be monitored for an uptick in organized convection late tonight. ..Dean/Thompson.. 04/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 29470158 30310079 31170031 31750012 32199979 32159889 32149893 31529860 30829860 29829931 29169983 28900083 29470158 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0100 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 100 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W DRT TO 25 NNW DRT TO 45 N DRT TO 55 WSW JCT TO 40 S SJT. ..DEAN..04/12/26 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 100 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC137-267-271-319-327-385-435-465-120540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDWARDS KIMBLE KINNEY MASON MENARD REAL SUTTON VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0100 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 100 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W DRT TO 25 NNW DRT TO 45 N DRT TO 55 WSW JCT TO 40 S SJT. ..DEAN..04/12/26 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 100 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC137-267-271-319-327-385-435-465-120540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDWARDS KIMBLE KINNEY MASON MENARD REAL SUTTON VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0100 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 98 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE LBL TO 15 NE DDC TO 15 WNW HUT TO 30 W BIE TO 15 NNW BIE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0372 ..CHALMERS..04/10/26 ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...TOP...DDC...GID...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 98 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC005-009-013-025-027-041-043-053-061-085-087-113-117-119-131- 143-149-159-161-169-201-100340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BARTON BROWN CLARK CLAY DICKINSON DONIPHAN ELLSWORTH GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON MCPHERSON MARSHALL MEADE NEMAHA OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE RICE RILEY SALINE WASHINGTON MOC003-005-021-087-147-100340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW ATCHISON BUCHANAN HOLT NODAWAY Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible overnight across portions central Texas while more isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern and central Plains and into the upper Mississippi River Valley. ...Synopsis... Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible late this evening and into the overnight hours across parts of the central CONUS. A lee cyclone will continue to deepen across the northern High Plains and maintain northward moisture return across the Plains as well as a focused zone of strong isentropic ascent across the upper MS Valley. Buoyant conditions and modest, but adequate, deep-layer wind shear should continue to support the potential for organized convection. ...Texas... The early stages of MCV development are noted in regional reflectivity across the Big Bend region of TX where a convective clustering has been focused over the past several hours. The nearby 00z DRT RAOB recently sampled a 0-6 km bulk shear value on the order of 45 knots, which is favorable for organized convection. This kinematic environment remains favorable for organized convection and could support intensification/organization of a convective line associated with the MCV as it migrates eastward into a more moist/buoyant environment. This scenario is supported by recent CAM guidance, and warrants maintaining/expanding 15% wind probabilities downstream of the MCV. ...Oklahoma into Kansas... Modestly moist and uncapped conditions were recently sampled across northern TX and central OK with effective bulk shear values on the order of 25 knots. Continued northward moisture advection should modulate nocturnal stabilization, and increasing ascent ahead of the upper wave emanating out of northern Mexico may support isolated strong to severe convection through the late evening and overnight hours. ...Upper MS Valley... VWPs across the Midwest and upper MS Valley all show a strong veering within the lowest 1-2 km and a recent uptick in wind speed within this layer. Additionally, upstream RAOBs sampled 7-8 C/km lapse rates that should be advecting eastward into the region through the overnight hours. The combination of continued ascent and increasing instability should promote the potential for additional elevated convection late tonight with an attendant threat for hail approach severe limits. ...California... The 00z OAK RAOB sampled weak buoyancy with around 150 J/kg SBCAPE. However, temperatures near 700 mb should continue to cool through the overnight hours with the approach of an upper wave just off the coast. Continued ascent within the left-exit region of the attendant upper jet will maintain the potential for isolated convection along the CA coast and areas inland. Additionally, 35-45 knot flow within the lowest few kilometers will likely be maintained through the overnight. Given the expectation of a slight increase in buoyancy and maintenance of low-level flow, opted to keep the 5% wind risk. ..Moore.. 04/12/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible overnight across portions central Texas while more isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern and central Plains and into the upper Mississippi River Valley. ...Synopsis... Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible late this evening and into the overnight hours across parts of the central CONUS. A lee cyclone will continue to deepen across the northern High Plains and maintain northward moisture return across the Plains as well as a focused zone of strong isentropic ascent across the upper MS Valley. Buoyant conditions and modest, but adequate, deep-layer wind shear should continue to support the potential for organized convection. ...Texas... The early stages of MCV development are noted in regional reflectivity across the Big Bend region of TX where a convective clustering has been focused over the past several hours. The nearby 00z DRT RAOB recently sampled a 0-6 km bulk shear value on the order of 45 knots, which is favorable for organized convection. This kinematic environment remains favorable for organized convection and could support intensification/organization of a convective line associated with the MCV as it migrates eastward into a more moist/buoyant environment. This scenario is supported by recent CAM guidance, and warrants maintaining/expanding 15% wind probabilities downstream of the MCV. ...Oklahoma into Kansas... Modestly moist and uncapped conditions were recently sampled across northern TX and central OK with effective bulk shear values on the order of 25 knots. Continued northward moisture advection should modulate nocturnal stabilization, and increasing ascent ahead of the upper wave emanating out of northern Mexico may support isolated strong to severe convection through the late evening and overnight hours. ...Upper MS Valley... VWPs across the Midwest and upper MS Valley all show a strong veering within the lowest 1-2 km and a recent uptick in wind speed within this layer. Additionally, upstream RAOBs sampled 7-8 C/km lapse rates that should be advecting eastward into the region through the overnight hours. The combination of continued ascent and increasing instability should promote the potential for additional elevated convection late tonight with an attendant threat for hail approach severe limits. ...California... The 00z OAK RAOB sampled weak buoyancy with around 150 J/kg SBCAPE. However, temperatures near 700 mb should continue to cool through the overnight hours with the approach of an upper wave just off the coast. Continued ascent within the left-exit region of the attendant upper jet will maintain the potential for isolated convection along the CA coast and areas inland. Additionally, 35-45 knot flow within the lowest few kilometers will likely be maintained through the overnight. Given the expectation of a slight increase in buoyancy and maintenance of low-level flow, opted to keep the 5% wind risk. ..Moore.. 04/12/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible overnight across portions central Texas while more isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern and central Plains and into the upper Mississippi River Valley. ...Synopsis... Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible late this evening and into the overnight hours across parts of the central CONUS. A lee cyclone will continue to deepen across the northern High Plains and maintain northward moisture return across the Plains as well as a focused zone of strong isentropic ascent across the upper MS Valley. Buoyant conditions and modest, but adequate, deep-layer wind shear should continue to support the potential for organized convection. ...Texas... The early stages of MCV development are noted in regional reflectivity across the Big Bend region of TX where a convective clustering has been focused over the past several hours. The nearby 00z DRT RAOB recently sampled a 0-6 km bulk shear value on the order of 45 knots, which is favorable for organized convection. This kinematic environment remains favorable for organized convection and could support intensification/organization of a convective line associated with the MCV as it migrates eastward into a more moist/buoyant environment. This scenario is supported by recent CAM guidance, and warrants maintaining/expanding 15% wind probabilities downstream of the MCV. ...Oklahoma into Kansas... Modestly moist and uncapped conditions were recently sampled across northern TX and central OK with effective bulk shear values on the order of 25 knots. Continued northward moisture advection should modulate nocturnal stabilization, and increasing ascent ahead of the upper wave emanating out of northern Mexico may support isolated strong to severe convection through the late evening and overnight hours. ...Upper MS Valley... VWPs across the Midwest and upper MS Valley all show a strong veering within the lowest 1-2 km and a recent uptick in wind speed within this layer. Additionally, upstream RAOBs sampled 7-8 C/km lapse rates that should be advecting eastward into the region through the overnight hours. The combination of continued ascent and increasing instability should promote the potential for additional elevated convection late tonight with an attendant threat for hail approach severe limits. ...California... The 00z OAK RAOB sampled weak buoyancy with around 150 J/kg SBCAPE. However, temperatures near 700 mb should continue to cool through the overnight hours with the approach of an upper wave just off the coast. Continued ascent within the left-exit region of the attendant upper jet will maintain the potential for isolated convection along the CA coast and areas inland. Additionally, 35-45 knot flow within the lowest few kilometers will likely be maintained through the overnight. Given the expectation of a slight increase in buoyancy and maintenance of low-level flow, opted to keep the 5% wind risk. ..Moore.. 04/12/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible overnight across portions central Texas while more isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern and central Plains and into the upper Mississippi River Valley. ...Synopsis... Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible late this evening and into the overnight hours across parts of the central CONUS. A lee cyclone will continue to deepen across the northern High Plains and maintain northward moisture return across the Plains as well as a focused zone of strong isentropic ascent across the upper MS Valley. Buoyant conditions and modest, but adequate, deep-layer wind shear should continue to support the potential for organized convection. ...Texas... The early stages of MCV development are noted in regional reflectivity across the Big Bend region of TX where a convective clustering has been focused over the past several hours. The nearby 00z DRT RAOB recently sampled a 0-6 km bulk shear value on the order of 45 knots, which is favorable for organized convection. This kinematic environment remains favorable for organized convection and could support intensification/organization of a convective line associated with the MCV as it migrates eastward into a more moist/buoyant environment. This scenario is supported by recent CAM guidance, and warrants maintaining/expanding 15% wind probabilities downstream of the MCV. ...Oklahoma into Kansas... Modestly moist and uncapped conditions were recently sampled across northern TX and central OK with effective bulk shear values on the order of 25 knots. Continued northward moisture advection should modulate nocturnal stabilization, and increasing ascent ahead of the upper wave emanating out of northern Mexico may support isolated strong to severe convection through the late evening and overnight hours. ...Upper MS Valley... VWPs across the Midwest and upper MS Valley all show a strong veering within the lowest 1-2 km and a recent uptick in wind speed within this layer. Additionally, upstream RAOBs sampled 7-8 C/km lapse rates that should be advecting eastward into the region through the overnight hours. The combination of continued ascent and increasing instability should promote the potential for additional elevated convection late tonight with an attendant threat for hail approach severe limits. ...California... The 00z OAK RAOB sampled weak buoyancy with around 150 J/kg SBCAPE. However, temperatures near 700 mb should continue to cool through the overnight hours with the approach of an upper wave just off the coast. Continued ascent within the left-exit region of the attendant upper jet will maintain the potential for isolated convection along the CA coast and areas inland. Additionally, 35-45 knot flow within the lowest few kilometers will likely be maintained through the overnight. Given the expectation of a slight increase in buoyancy and maintenance of low-level flow, opted to keep the 5% wind risk. ..Moore.. 04/12/2026 Read more

WW 0099 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 99 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..04/11/26 ATTN...WFO...GID...TOP...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 99 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC089-147-157-183-201-112340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JEWELL PHILLIPS REPUBLIC SMITH WASHINGTON NEC001-019-035-059-061-067-079-081-083-095-099-129-137-151-169- 181-185-112340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BUFFALO CLAY FILLMORE FRANKLIN GAGE HALL HAMILTON HARLAN JEFFERSON KEARNEY NUCKOLLS PHELPS SALINE THAYER WEBSTER YORK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0099 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 99 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..04/11/26 ATTN...WFO...GID...TOP...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 99 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC089-147-157-183-201-112340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JEWELL PHILLIPS REPUBLIC SMITH WASHINGTON NEC001-019-035-059-061-067-079-081-083-095-099-129-137-151-169- 181-185-112340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BUFFALO CLAY FILLMORE FRANKLIN GAGE HALL HAMILTON HARLAN JEFFERSON KEARNEY NUCKOLLS PHELPS SALINE THAYER WEBSTER YORK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

MD 0383 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0383 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0532 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Areas affected...Parts of south-central KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 112232Z - 120000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A threat for severe hail/wind and possibly a tornado may spread eastward. The longevity of the threat is uncertain. DISCUSSION...An HP supercell has recently developed to the west-northwest of Wichita, within a region of ascent that may have been related to a minor MCV that earlier moved out of the southern High Plains. The KICT VWP depicts gradually enlarging low-level hodographs, with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. Downstream MLCINH is minimal, which may help this supercell cluster to persist into early evening, though in the absence of stronger synoptic-scale ascent, storm-scale dynamics and the influence of cell mergers may determine the longevity of this cluster and the attendant severe threat. While midlevel lapse rates are not particularly steep (as observed in the 17Z LMN and 18Z DDC soundings), MLCAPE of around 1500 J/kg will support large-hail potential for as long as the supercell structure persists. Severe RFD and outflow gusts will also continue to be possible. Low-level shear/SRH are also sufficient for some tornado threat, though the ongoing HP structure and extensive outflow will tend to limit tornado potential to some extent. Given the isolated nature and uncertain duration of the ongoing threat, the need for watch issuance remains uncertain. However, in the short term, a localized but potentially substantial severe threat may spread across south-central KS, near and north of Wichita. ..Dean/Thompson.. 04/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT... LAT...LON 37989805 38129728 38099653 37639645 37559666 37489708 37519746 37589785 37989805 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0099 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 99 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..04/11/26 ATTN...WFO...GID...TOP...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 99 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC089-147-157-183-201-112340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JEWELL PHILLIPS REPUBLIC SMITH WASHINGTON NEC001-019-035-059-061-067-079-081-083-095-099-129-137-151-169- 181-185-112340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BUFFALO CLAY FILLMORE FRANKLIN GAGE HALL HAMILTON HARLAN JEFFERSON KEARNEY NUCKOLLS PHELPS SALINE THAYER WEBSTER YORK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more