Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0436 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... A robust mid-level trough and associated jet maxima enters the Southern Plains on Day 3/Tuesday as a lee surface cyclone evolves across the Central Plains, promoting a fire weather threat across the region. Lingering dry and breezy conditions are expected across eastern NM and West TX on Day 4/Wednesday as the mid-level trough translates eastward. Another pronounced upper trough moves into the Pacific Northwest Day 5/Thursday. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the eastward propagating trough should promote dry, downslope flow and a continued fire weather threat across the Southern High Plains Thursday with a more widespread impact across this region on Day 6/Friday as the amplifying trough moves into the central U.S., eventually moving into the eastern U.S. over the weekend. Farther east, upper-level ridging will keep much of the Mid Atlantic and Southeastern U.S. dry through the week. The exceptionally dry fuels and occasional elevated southerly winds will pose a lingering fire weather threat across this region. ...Day 3/Tuesday... ...Southern Plains... A 60-70 knot mid-level jet rounding the base of an eastward moving trough along with deepening lee cyclone across the Central Plains will support downslope drying and enhanced southwest winds of 20-25 mph across portions of the southern High Plains on Day 3/Tuesday. 70% critical probabilities have been introduced across southeastern CO, far southwestern KS and adjacent NM/OK/TX border areas where fuels remain most receptive, largely missing out on recent wetting rainfall across the region. The 40% critical probability area remains mostly intact for much of the southern High Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic... A residual dry air mass under a persistent ridge aloft will remain across the Southeast and Mid Atlantic through much of next week. A surface low and corresponding mid-level trough moving across the Great Lakes will promote elevated southwest winds across portions of the Mid Atlantic. A 40% critical area was introduced into portions of VA and NC where alignment of dry and breezy conditions and exceptionally dry fuels is most likely. ...Day 4-6/Wednesday-Friday... ...Southern Plains... The Southern Plains will remain a focus for fire weather concerns through this week with a dry, downslope regime prevailing across the region. Southwesterly flow aloft and subsequent lee surface troughing across the central/southern Plains will support breezy west/southwest winds and low RH each afternoon Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. A 40% critical probability area was added for Thursday across much of eastern NM, southeastern CO, southwestern KS and adjacent TX/OK Panhandle areas. A more pronounced and amplified upper-level trough approaches the central CONUS by the end of the week. The associated mid-level jet streak and deepening surface cyclone across the Central Plains will aid in stronger west/southwest winds behind a dry line. Although recent rainfall has mitigated wildfire spread potential in some areas, several days of drying ahead will likely allow more receptive fuels to develop across the southern High Plains by the end of the week. 40% critical probabilities have been introduced for Day 6/Friday across much of southeastern NM, TX/OK Panhandles, southeastern CO and southwestern KS. ..Williams.. 04/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0436 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... A robust mid-level trough and associated jet maxima enters the Southern Plains on Day 3/Tuesday as a lee surface cyclone evolves across the Central Plains, promoting a fire weather threat across the region. Lingering dry and breezy conditions are expected across eastern NM and West TX on Day 4/Wednesday as the mid-level trough translates eastward. Another pronounced upper trough moves into the Pacific Northwest Day 5/Thursday. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the eastward propagating trough should promote dry, downslope flow and a continued fire weather threat across the Southern High Plains Thursday with a more widespread impact across this region on Day 6/Friday as the amplifying trough moves into the central U.S., eventually moving into the eastern U.S. over the weekend. Farther east, upper-level ridging will keep much of the Mid Atlantic and Southeastern U.S. dry through the week. The exceptionally dry fuels and occasional elevated southerly winds will pose a lingering fire weather threat across this region. ...Day 3/Tuesday... ...Southern Plains... A 60-70 knot mid-level jet rounding the base of an eastward moving trough along with deepening lee cyclone across the Central Plains will support downslope drying and enhanced southwest winds of 20-25 mph across portions of the southern High Plains on Day 3/Tuesday. 70% critical probabilities have been introduced across southeastern CO, far southwestern KS and adjacent NM/OK/TX border areas where fuels remain most receptive, largely missing out on recent wetting rainfall across the region. The 40% critical probability area remains mostly intact for much of the southern High Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic... A residual dry air mass under a persistent ridge aloft will remain across the Southeast and Mid Atlantic through much of next week. A surface low and corresponding mid-level trough moving across the Great Lakes will promote elevated southwest winds across portions of the Mid Atlantic. A 40% critical area was introduced into portions of VA and NC where alignment of dry and breezy conditions and exceptionally dry fuels is most likely. ...Day 4-6/Wednesday-Friday... ...Southern Plains... The Southern Plains will remain a focus for fire weather concerns through this week with a dry, downslope regime prevailing across the region. Southwesterly flow aloft and subsequent lee surface troughing across the central/southern Plains will support breezy west/southwest winds and low RH each afternoon Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. A 40% critical probability area was added for Thursday across much of eastern NM, southeastern CO, southwestern KS and adjacent TX/OK Panhandle areas. A more pronounced and amplified upper-level trough approaches the central CONUS by the end of the week. The associated mid-level jet streak and deepening surface cyclone across the Central Plains will aid in stronger west/southwest winds behind a dry line. Although recent rainfall has mitigated wildfire spread potential in some areas, several days of drying ahead will likely allow more receptive fuels to develop across the southern High Plains by the end of the week. 40% critical probabilities have been introduced for Day 6/Friday across much of southeastern NM, TX/OK Panhandles, southeastern CO and southwestern KS. ..Williams.. 04/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0390 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0390 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Areas affected...portions of northeastern Minnesota into far northwestern Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 122003Z - 122200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A conditional hail/tornado threat will accompany any storm that develops and becomes sustained, though confidence in this scenario is currently low. DISCUSSION...A mid-level shortwave trough is currently overspreading the Upper MS Valley region, prompting the eastward progression of a surface low over northwestern Minnesota. Low-level moisture convergence (evident via 60+ F surface dewpoints) is occurring along the warm front ahead of the surface low (along a Cass to Carlton County, MN line), with a separate differential heating boundary noted from Cass to Pine Counties in MN. A cold front also extends from roughly Cass to Big Stone Counties. Ahead of the cold front, and in between the warm front and differential heating boundary, some increase in CU has been noted. Mesoanalysis shows 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE in place over this region, with CINH continuing to erode. Furthermore, mesoanalysis and RAP forecast soundings depict elongated mid-level hodographs with modest low-level curvature and over 40 kts of effective bulk shear. The ambient environment along the warm front supports supercell potential, accompanied by a hail and perhaps tornado threat should a storm develop. The main question is if convective initiation will occur given weak to modest deep-layer forcing for ascent. At the moment, thunderstorm development is uncertain. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX... LAT...LON 46019146 45889144 45759146 45659151 45519168 45409192 45349215 45449269 45679332 46019394 46289431 46679432 46899431 47079419 47139414 47189400 47169355 47009276 46809212 46349158 46019146 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0389 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0389 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Areas affected...parts of central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 121919Z - 122115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple of severe storms with potential to produce severe hail may gradually develop through 4-6 PM CDT. It is not yet clear that a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends will continue to be monitored for this possibility. DISCUSSION...Beneath the belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly 500 mb flow overspreading central Texas, deepening convective development is evident near and west of the I-35 corridor, from the Hill Country northward into areas just southwest of the Metroplex. Forcing for ascent downstream of a jet streak embedded within this regime may be aiding development, which appears focused within weak lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection on the northern/northeastern periphery of a plume of more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air. Boundary-layer moisture characterized by surface dew points near 70F appears to be contributing to CAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, aided by increasing insolation in the wake of early day convection spreading northeast and east of the region. Given the strong deep-layer shear, it appears that a couple of supercell structures with potential to produce large hail may develop as scattered storms initiate over the next few hours. ..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 32179832 31869743 30189706 29889828 30429844 31599911 32179832 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0388 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH INTO EASTERN IDAHO...FAR WESTERN WYOMING...EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0388 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Areas affected...portions of northern Utah into eastern Idaho...far western Wyoming...extreme southwestern Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 121840Z - 122045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A few severe gusts may occur with the strongest storms that can mature over the next several hours. The severe threat should remain isolated. DISCUSSION...Clearing skies are supporting boundary-layer mixing/destabilization amid the approach of a 500 mb vort max, resulting in increased lift for convective development. Visible satellite imagery depicts deepening CU, with NLDN lightning data already showing a few lightning flashes in spots. Storms should continue to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon given 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates amid 30 kts of effective bulk shear. Storms should be mainly multicellular, the strongest of which may be accompanied by occasional strong wind gusts (a few of which may be severe, especially in higher-terrain areas), and perhaps an instance or two of hail. Given the modest speed shear, the severe threat should remain isolated at best, so a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN... LAT...LON 41451373 41571385 42281435 42551434 43131422 44151393 44961322 45031241 44951142 44651061 44171030 42791005 41641001 40751026 40321090 40091188 40131251 40511325 41451373 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0387 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0387 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Areas affected...parts of central and southeastern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 121752Z - 122015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorm development may persist into the 4-6 PM CDT time frame, perhaps accompanied by some risk for a brief tornado, and a few strong surface gusts before storms diminish. DISCUSSION...Moderate southerly return flow persists across the middle Texas coastal plain, near the southern periphery of a belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly 500 mb flow extending from south of the Texas Big Bend through the southeastern Great Plains. One short wave impulse embedded within this regime now appears to be shifting across/northwest of the Ark-La-Texas vicinity, with perhaps an even more subtle perturbation/associated speed maximum still upstream and forecast to propagate across central Texas through mid to late afternoon. Likely aided by inflow of moist boundary-layer characterized by surface dew points around 70F, which appears to be contributing to CAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg, vigorous convective development to the north-northwest of Victoria has been exhibiting transient supercell structure the past couple of hours. This appears to focused near a lingering 30+ kt southerly 850 mb jet axis, which various model output suggests may still undergo some strengthening into mid/late afternoon. As this occurs, the aforementioned convection and trailing storms developing to the southwest may undergo further intensification and upscale growth. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for a brief tornado. With forecast soundings indicating near saturated profiles through a fairly deep surface-based layer, the risk for damaging wind gusts may be initially hindered, but, with time, this potential could gradually increase with heavy precipitation loading and further upscale convective growth. ..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 28349792 29269779 30349679 30349626 29909574 29159676 28349792 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible today into evening mainly across parts of Texas and perhaps other nearby parts of the southern Plains. More isolated severe storms may occur across portions of the Upper Great Lakes and northern Rockies. ...20z Update Central TX... Filtered diurnal heating in the wake of earlier showers and storms across much of central TX was supporting moderate destabilization this afternoon. While mid-level lapse rates are generally poor, sufficient destabilization should support a gradual uptick in convective coverage this afternoon and evening. With moderate deep-layer shear in place, some organization could support a risk for damaging gusts, hail, and tornado or two. ...MN/WI... The aforementioned warm front continues to surge north but has slowed farther south than earlier guidance. Weak to moderate destabilization along and just south of the boundary will remain supportive of a conditions supercell risk this afternoon/evening. Strong shear profiles east of the surface low and near the rapidly modifying boundary could support a risk for hail and possibly a tornado. Have shifted severe probabilities southward slightly to better match the observed frontal positioning. See MCD #390 for the latest information. ...OK/KS/TX Panhandle... A conditional risk for a supercell or two remains evident this afternoon across the dryline in the central and southern Plains. Ample heating in the wake of an early morning MCS could allow for isolated storm this afternoon or evening as the dryline is forecast to mix eastward before eventually retreating. Forecast guidance continues to show weak subsidence suppressing convective development, but deepening cumulus evident over the southern TX Panhandle could support an isolated storm this evening. All severe hazards would be possible. ...Intermountain West... Steep mid-level lapse rates beneath the cold core of the upper low over the West will continue to support scattered high-based storms this afternoon. With a relatively dry-sub cloud layer, somewhat deep boundary-layer mixing will support strong to severe downburst winds. ..Lyons.. 04/12/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of phased shortwave troughs over the Plains, one moving through the Dakotas and another moving through KS/OK. Both of these waves are forecast to continue northeastward through the day, with the northern wave reaching northwestern Ontario and the southern wave reaching the Great Lakes region. This evolution will take these waves east/northeast of the higher low-level moisture, which will remain in a corridor from the southern Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated throughout much of this corridor today, with highest thunderstorm chances across central/east TX and from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. Farther west, an upper low is slowly drifting eastward across northern CA. Guidance suggests this eastward drift will continue today, with several shortwave troughs rotating quickly through the base of this system and ejecting across the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Large-scale ascent and modest mid-level moisture associated with these waves will combine with cold temperatures aloft and associated buoyancy to support thunderstorms today from northern CA across the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies, and into the northern Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... Much of this region will be displaced south and west of any notable large-scale forcing for ascent. This limited ascent, combined with the showers and isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing across central and east TX, complicates the overall forecast today, with mesoscale factors likely contributing significantly to when and where storms develop this afternoon and evening. General expectation is for development along the southern and western periphery on the ongoing storms (i.e. from southeast/south-central TX into southwest TX) later this afternoon and this evening. This redevelopment will be supported by a combination of moist advection, modest heating, and limited low-level convergence. Moderate to strong buoyancy amid moderate vertical shear could support supercells if the mode remains discrete. However, the weakness in the mid-level flow suggests storms may tend to cluster, a scenario that is supported by most CAM guidance. Buoyancy and shear are still strong enough to support rotating updrafts and large hail early in the convective cycle, but the trends towards a messy convective mode could limit the persistence and coverage of robust updrafts. Damaging gusts are possible even with the clustered storm mode, especially given there is some potential for slightly more organized bowing segments over time. Farther west, mid-level height rises/subsidence are anticipated coincident with the dryline from central Kansas south-southwestward across western Oklahoma and west/southwest Texas. The environment, characterized by 1500 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30 to 40 kt of westerly deep-layer shear, is conditionally supportive of supercells capable of all severe hazards. However, the previously mentioned height rises and subsidence, combined with modest convective inhibition, are generally expected to preclude thunderstorm development. Even so, given the conditional risk, Marginal risk probabilities will be maintained. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin... Recent surface analysis places a low just west of FAR, with a warm front extending southwestward across central/southeast MN and southern WI. This low is forecast to move eastward today, while the warm front expands northward. A narrow corridor of surface-based buoyancy could develop from north-central MN into far northwest WI as dewpoints increase in the upper 50s (perhaps even low 60s). Thunderstorm initiation appears possible along the cold front within this corridor, although veered low-level flow and northward/westward displacement of the better forcing casts doubt to whether updrafts will be maintained. Any storms that do mature within this warm sector should become supercells capable of all severe hazards, including large hail and tornadoes. However, low confidence in storm development and maturity precludes higher probabilities with this outlook. ...Northern Rockies... Mid-level moisture will support another day of modest surface-based buoyancy ahead of the shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis. Persistent 30-40 knot flow within the CAPE-bearing layer combined with somewhat deep boundary-layer mixing will support strong to severe downburst winds with the more robust convective cells, mainly this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible today into evening mainly across parts of Texas and perhaps other nearby parts of the southern Plains. More isolated severe storms may occur across portions of the Upper Great Lakes and northern Rockies. ...20z Update Central TX... Filtered diurnal heating in the wake of earlier showers and storms across much of central TX was supporting moderate destabilization this afternoon. While mid-level lapse rates are generally poor, sufficient destabilization should support a gradual uptick in convective coverage this afternoon and evening. With moderate deep-layer shear in place, some organization could support a risk for damaging gusts, hail, and tornado or two. ...MN/WI... The aforementioned warm front continues to surge north but has slowed farther south than earlier guidance. Weak to moderate destabilization along and just south of the boundary will remain supportive of a conditions supercell risk this afternoon/evening. Strong shear profiles east of the surface low and near the rapidly modifying boundary could support a risk for hail and possibly a tornado. Have shifted severe probabilities southward slightly to better match the observed frontal positioning. See MCD #390 for the latest information. ...OK/KS/TX Panhandle... A conditional risk for a supercell or two remains evident this afternoon across the dryline in the central and southern Plains. Ample heating in the wake of an early morning MCS could allow for isolated storm this afternoon or evening as the dryline is forecast to mix eastward before eventually retreating. Forecast guidance continues to show weak subsidence suppressing convective development, but deepening cumulus evident over the southern TX Panhandle could support an isolated storm this evening. All severe hazards would be possible. ...Intermountain West... Steep mid-level lapse rates beneath the cold core of the upper low over the West will continue to support scattered high-based storms this afternoon. With a relatively dry-sub cloud layer, somewhat deep boundary-layer mixing will support strong to severe downburst winds. ..Lyons.. 04/12/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of phased shortwave troughs over the Plains, one moving through the Dakotas and another moving through KS/OK. Both of these waves are forecast to continue northeastward through the day, with the northern wave reaching northwestern Ontario and the southern wave reaching the Great Lakes region. This evolution will take these waves east/northeast of the higher low-level moisture, which will remain in a corridor from the southern Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated throughout much of this corridor today, with highest thunderstorm chances across central/east TX and from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. Farther west, an upper low is slowly drifting eastward across northern CA. Guidance suggests this eastward drift will continue today, with several shortwave troughs rotating quickly through the base of this system and ejecting across the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Large-scale ascent and modest mid-level moisture associated with these waves will combine with cold temperatures aloft and associated buoyancy to support thunderstorms today from northern CA across the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies, and into the northern Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... Much of this region will be displaced south and west of any notable large-scale forcing for ascent. This limited ascent, combined with the showers and isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing across central and east TX, complicates the overall forecast today, with mesoscale factors likely contributing significantly to when and where storms develop this afternoon and evening. General expectation is for development along the southern and western periphery on the ongoing storms (i.e. from southeast/south-central TX into southwest TX) later this afternoon and this evening. This redevelopment will be supported by a combination of moist advection, modest heating, and limited low-level convergence. Moderate to strong buoyancy amid moderate vertical shear could support supercells if the mode remains discrete. However, the weakness in the mid-level flow suggests storms may tend to cluster, a scenario that is supported by most CAM guidance. Buoyancy and shear are still strong enough to support rotating updrafts and large hail early in the convective cycle, but the trends towards a messy convective mode could limit the persistence and coverage of robust updrafts. Damaging gusts are possible even with the clustered storm mode, especially given there is some potential for slightly more organized bowing segments over time. Farther west, mid-level height rises/subsidence are anticipated coincident with the dryline from central Kansas south-southwestward across western Oklahoma and west/southwest Texas. The environment, characterized by 1500 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30 to 40 kt of westerly deep-layer shear, is conditionally supportive of supercells capable of all severe hazards. However, the previously mentioned height rises and subsidence, combined with modest convective inhibition, are generally expected to preclude thunderstorm development. Even so, given the conditional risk, Marginal risk probabilities will be maintained. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin... Recent surface analysis places a low just west of FAR, with a warm front extending southwestward across central/southeast MN and southern WI. This low is forecast to move eastward today, while the warm front expands northward. A narrow corridor of surface-based buoyancy could develop from north-central MN into far northwest WI as dewpoints increase in the upper 50s (perhaps even low 60s). Thunderstorm initiation appears possible along the cold front within this corridor, although veered low-level flow and northward/westward displacement of the better forcing casts doubt to whether updrafts will be maintained. Any storms that do mature within this warm sector should become supercells capable of all severe hazards, including large hail and tornadoes. However, low confidence in storm development and maturity precludes higher probabilities with this outlook. ...Northern Rockies... Mid-level moisture will support another day of modest surface-based buoyancy ahead of the shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis. Persistent 30-40 knot flow within the CAPE-bearing layer combined with somewhat deep boundary-layer mixing will support strong to severe downburst winds with the more robust convective cells, mainly this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible today into evening mainly across parts of Texas and perhaps other nearby parts of the southern Plains. More isolated severe storms may occur across portions of the Upper Great Lakes and northern Rockies. ...20z Update Central TX... Filtered diurnal heating in the wake of earlier showers and storms across much of central TX was supporting moderate destabilization this afternoon. While mid-level lapse rates are generally poor, sufficient destabilization should support a gradual uptick in convective coverage this afternoon and evening. With moderate deep-layer shear in place, some organization could support a risk for damaging gusts, hail, and tornado or two. ...MN/WI... The aforementioned warm front continues to surge north but has slowed farther south than earlier guidance. Weak to moderate destabilization along and just south of the boundary will remain supportive of a conditions supercell risk this afternoon/evening. Strong shear profiles east of the surface low and near the rapidly modifying boundary could support a risk for hail and possibly a tornado. Have shifted severe probabilities southward slightly to better match the observed frontal positioning. See MCD #390 for the latest information. ...OK/KS/TX Panhandle... A conditional risk for a supercell or two remains evident this afternoon across the dryline in the central and southern Plains. Ample heating in the wake of an early morning MCS could allow for isolated storm this afternoon or evening as the dryline is forecast to mix eastward before eventually retreating. Forecast guidance continues to show weak subsidence suppressing convective development, but deepening cumulus evident over the southern TX Panhandle could support an isolated storm this evening. All severe hazards would be possible. ...Intermountain West... Steep mid-level lapse rates beneath the cold core of the upper low over the West will continue to support scattered high-based storms this afternoon. With a relatively dry-sub cloud layer, somewhat deep boundary-layer mixing will support strong to severe downburst winds. ..Lyons.. 04/12/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of phased shortwave troughs over the Plains, one moving through the Dakotas and another moving through KS/OK. Both of these waves are forecast to continue northeastward through the day, with the northern wave reaching northwestern Ontario and the southern wave reaching the Great Lakes region. This evolution will take these waves east/northeast of the higher low-level moisture, which will remain in a corridor from the southern Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated throughout much of this corridor today, with highest thunderstorm chances across central/east TX and from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. Farther west, an upper low is slowly drifting eastward across northern CA. Guidance suggests this eastward drift will continue today, with several shortwave troughs rotating quickly through the base of this system and ejecting across the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Large-scale ascent and modest mid-level moisture associated with these waves will combine with cold temperatures aloft and associated buoyancy to support thunderstorms today from northern CA across the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies, and into the northern Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... Much of this region will be displaced south and west of any notable large-scale forcing for ascent. This limited ascent, combined with the showers and isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing across central and east TX, complicates the overall forecast today, with mesoscale factors likely contributing significantly to when and where storms develop this afternoon and evening. General expectation is for development along the southern and western periphery on the ongoing storms (i.e. from southeast/south-central TX into southwest TX) later this afternoon and this evening. This redevelopment will be supported by a combination of moist advection, modest heating, and limited low-level convergence. Moderate to strong buoyancy amid moderate vertical shear could support supercells if the mode remains discrete. However, the weakness in the mid-level flow suggests storms may tend to cluster, a scenario that is supported by most CAM guidance. Buoyancy and shear are still strong enough to support rotating updrafts and large hail early in the convective cycle, but the trends towards a messy convective mode could limit the persistence and coverage of robust updrafts. Damaging gusts are possible even with the clustered storm mode, especially given there is some potential for slightly more organized bowing segments over time. Farther west, mid-level height rises/subsidence are anticipated coincident with the dryline from central Kansas south-southwestward across western Oklahoma and west/southwest Texas. The environment, characterized by 1500 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30 to 40 kt of westerly deep-layer shear, is conditionally supportive of supercells capable of all severe hazards. However, the previously mentioned height rises and subsidence, combined with modest convective inhibition, are generally expected to preclude thunderstorm development. Even so, given the conditional risk, Marginal risk probabilities will be maintained. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin... Recent surface analysis places a low just west of FAR, with a warm front extending southwestward across central/southeast MN and southern WI. This low is forecast to move eastward today, while the warm front expands northward. A narrow corridor of surface-based buoyancy could develop from north-central MN into far northwest WI as dewpoints increase in the upper 50s (perhaps even low 60s). Thunderstorm initiation appears possible along the cold front within this corridor, although veered low-level flow and northward/westward displacement of the better forcing casts doubt to whether updrafts will be maintained. Any storms that do mature within this warm sector should become supercells capable of all severe hazards, including large hail and tornadoes. However, low confidence in storm development and maturity precludes higher probabilities with this outlook. ...Northern Rockies... Mid-level moisture will support another day of modest surface-based buoyancy ahead of the shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis. Persistent 30-40 knot flow within the CAPE-bearing layer combined with somewhat deep boundary-layer mixing will support strong to severe downburst winds with the more robust convective cells, mainly this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible today into evening mainly across parts of Texas and perhaps other nearby parts of the southern Plains. More isolated severe storms may occur across portions of the Upper Great Lakes and northern Rockies. ...20z Update Central TX... Filtered diurnal heating in the wake of earlier showers and storms across much of central TX was supporting moderate destabilization this afternoon. While mid-level lapse rates are generally poor, sufficient destabilization should support a gradual uptick in convective coverage this afternoon and evening. With moderate deep-layer shear in place, some organization could support a risk for damaging gusts, hail, and tornado or two. ...MN/WI... The aforementioned warm front continues to surge north but has slowed farther south than earlier guidance. Weak to moderate destabilization along and just south of the boundary will remain supportive of a conditions supercell risk this afternoon/evening. Strong shear profiles east of the surface low and near the rapidly modifying boundary could support a risk for hail and possibly a tornado. Have shifted severe probabilities southward slightly to better match the observed frontal positioning. See MCD #390 for the latest information. ...OK/KS/TX Panhandle... A conditional risk for a supercell or two remains evident this afternoon across the dryline in the central and southern Plains. Ample heating in the wake of an early morning MCS could allow for isolated storm this afternoon or evening as the dryline is forecast to mix eastward before eventually retreating. Forecast guidance continues to show weak subsidence suppressing convective development, but deepening cumulus evident over the southern TX Panhandle could support an isolated storm this evening. All severe hazards would be possible. ...Intermountain West... Steep mid-level lapse rates beneath the cold core of the upper low over the West will continue to support scattered high-based storms this afternoon. With a relatively dry-sub cloud layer, somewhat deep boundary-layer mixing will support strong to severe downburst winds. ..Lyons.. 04/12/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of phased shortwave troughs over the Plains, one moving through the Dakotas and another moving through KS/OK. Both of these waves are forecast to continue northeastward through the day, with the northern wave reaching northwestern Ontario and the southern wave reaching the Great Lakes region. This evolution will take these waves east/northeast of the higher low-level moisture, which will remain in a corridor from the southern Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated throughout much of this corridor today, with highest thunderstorm chances across central/east TX and from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. Farther west, an upper low is slowly drifting eastward across northern CA. Guidance suggests this eastward drift will continue today, with several shortwave troughs rotating quickly through the base of this system and ejecting across the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Large-scale ascent and modest mid-level moisture associated with these waves will combine with cold temperatures aloft and associated buoyancy to support thunderstorms today from northern CA across the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies, and into the northern Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... Much of this region will be displaced south and west of any notable large-scale forcing for ascent. This limited ascent, combined with the showers and isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing across central and east TX, complicates the overall forecast today, with mesoscale factors likely contributing significantly to when and where storms develop this afternoon and evening. General expectation is for development along the southern and western periphery on the ongoing storms (i.e. from southeast/south-central TX into southwest TX) later this afternoon and this evening. This redevelopment will be supported by a combination of moist advection, modest heating, and limited low-level convergence. Moderate to strong buoyancy amid moderate vertical shear could support supercells if the mode remains discrete. However, the weakness in the mid-level flow suggests storms may tend to cluster, a scenario that is supported by most CAM guidance. Buoyancy and shear are still strong enough to support rotating updrafts and large hail early in the convective cycle, but the trends towards a messy convective mode could limit the persistence and coverage of robust updrafts. Damaging gusts are possible even with the clustered storm mode, especially given there is some potential for slightly more organized bowing segments over time. Farther west, mid-level height rises/subsidence are anticipated coincident with the dryline from central Kansas south-southwestward across western Oklahoma and west/southwest Texas. The environment, characterized by 1500 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30 to 40 kt of westerly deep-layer shear, is conditionally supportive of supercells capable of all severe hazards. However, the previously mentioned height rises and subsidence, combined with modest convective inhibition, are generally expected to preclude thunderstorm development. Even so, given the conditional risk, Marginal risk probabilities will be maintained. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin... Recent surface analysis places a low just west of FAR, with a warm front extending southwestward across central/southeast MN and southern WI. This low is forecast to move eastward today, while the warm front expands northward. A narrow corridor of surface-based buoyancy could develop from north-central MN into far northwest WI as dewpoints increase in the upper 50s (perhaps even low 60s). Thunderstorm initiation appears possible along the cold front within this corridor, although veered low-level flow and northward/westward displacement of the better forcing casts doubt to whether updrafts will be maintained. Any storms that do mature within this warm sector should become supercells capable of all severe hazards, including large hail and tornadoes. However, low confidence in storm development and maturity precludes higher probabilities with this outlook. ...Northern Rockies... Mid-level moisture will support another day of modest surface-based buoyancy ahead of the shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis. Persistent 30-40 knot flow within the CAPE-bearing layer combined with somewhat deep boundary-layer mixing will support strong to severe downburst winds with the more robust convective cells, mainly this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN WYOMING...SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA... ...Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic... A surface trough accelerating eastward into Quebec along with an evolving subtropical ridge over the Atlantic will support dry, southwesterly flow across portions of the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic, resulting in sustained southwest winds of 10-15 mph Monday. The lack of appreciable Gulf moisture return should promote relative humidity in the 25-35% range across the TN Great Valley with RH as low as 20% across portions of VA. Increasing cloud cover and along with some shower and thunderstorm activity should limit fire weather concerns farther north across the OH River Valley. Although RH will be marginally higher than D1/Sunday observed values, fuels remain extremely dry and quite receptive to wildfire spread. The existing Elevated highlights across VA were extended southwestward into eastern TN with convection likely remaining well to the north across KY and WV. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level perturbation embedded within broad southwest flow aloft coupled with a lee surface low across the Northern Plains will result in windy and dry conditions for portions of the central and northern Plains. Introduced Critical Highlights from eastern WY, southwestern SD and northwestern NE where west winds of 20-25 mph (locally 30 mph) will align with relative humidity of 10-15% by mid-afternoon amid a dry and well-mixed boundary layer. These conditions will align with dry and receptive fuels to promote a critical fire weather concern. Farther south, a mid-level jet ejecting into the Southern Plains combined with lee troughing across High Plains will support a Critical fire weather threat for the region Monday. Southwest winds of 20-25 mph and RH reductions into the 10-15% range are likely to evolve by peak afternoon heating. However, a complex fuels arrangement exists across the Southern Plains with some modification and reduced receptivity noted from recent rainfall. Alignment of fire-effective meteorological conditions and most receptive fuels will exist across southeastern CO, far northeastern NM, far southwestern KS and adjacent OK/TX Panhandles where Critical Highlights were largely maintained. ..Williams.. 04/12/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026/ ...Synopsis... Broad southwesterly mid level flow in advance of a trough progressing from California into the Great Basin will be responsible for widespread dry and windy conditions from southeastern New Mexico all the way into portions of eastern Wyoming and South Dakota. Critical fire-weather concerns are forecast for portions of southeastern Colorado into portions of far western Kansas and northern New Mexico. ...Eastern New Mexico/Adjacent High Plains... Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast for southeastern Colorado into portions of far northeastern New Mexico and far western Kansas. Minimum relative humidity of 10-15% and winds of 25 MPH will overlap with critically receptive fuels. While Critical meteorological conditions appear they could extend further south and west of the current area, recent wetting rainfall and a lack of receptive fuels currently limit the expansion of highlights. Still, there are some pockets of receptive fuels in portions of Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle that have yet to receive rain, and some additional highlights may be warranted in future updates. A secondary area of concern in the ensemble guidance could be portions of northern Nebraska into South Dakota/Wyoming, where some members have come in with winds of 25-30 MPH and relative humidity of 10-15% over receptive fuels. However, ensemble spread in the surface winds reduces confidence to introduce these highlights, especially given the members with the strongest winds are models that tend to bias towards aggressive mixing. Still, this area will be monitored for additional highlights in future updates. ...Mid Atlantic... Dry southeasterly return flow is forecast across portions of North Carolina into much of Virginia, where fuels currently exceed the 95th-99th annual percentiles for ERCs. Winds are expected to reach 10-15 MPH with relative humidity around 25-35%, supporting Elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN WYOMING...SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA... ...Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic... A surface trough accelerating eastward into Quebec along with an evolving subtropical ridge over the Atlantic will support dry, southwesterly flow across portions of the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic, resulting in sustained southwest winds of 10-15 mph Monday. The lack of appreciable Gulf moisture return should promote relative humidity in the 25-35% range across the TN Great Valley with RH as low as 20% across portions of VA. Increasing cloud cover and along with some shower and thunderstorm activity should limit fire weather concerns farther north across the OH River Valley. Although RH will be marginally higher than D1/Sunday observed values, fuels remain extremely dry and quite receptive to wildfire spread. The existing Elevated highlights across VA were extended southwestward into eastern TN with convection likely remaining well to the north across KY and WV. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level perturbation embedded within broad southwest flow aloft coupled with a lee surface low across the Northern Plains will result in windy and dry conditions for portions of the central and northern Plains. Introduced Critical Highlights from eastern WY, southwestern SD and northwestern NE where west winds of 20-25 mph (locally 30 mph) will align with relative humidity of 10-15% by mid-afternoon amid a dry and well-mixed boundary layer. These conditions will align with dry and receptive fuels to promote a critical fire weather concern. Farther south, a mid-level jet ejecting into the Southern Plains combined with lee troughing across High Plains will support a Critical fire weather threat for the region Monday. Southwest winds of 20-25 mph and RH reductions into the 10-15% range are likely to evolve by peak afternoon heating. However, a complex fuels arrangement exists across the Southern Plains with some modification and reduced receptivity noted from recent rainfall. Alignment of fire-effective meteorological conditions and most receptive fuels will exist across southeastern CO, far northeastern NM, far southwestern KS and adjacent OK/TX Panhandles where Critical Highlights were largely maintained. ..Williams.. 04/12/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026/ ...Synopsis... Broad southwesterly mid level flow in advance of a trough progressing from California into the Great Basin will be responsible for widespread dry and windy conditions from southeastern New Mexico all the way into portions of eastern Wyoming and South Dakota. Critical fire-weather concerns are forecast for portions of southeastern Colorado into portions of far western Kansas and northern New Mexico. ...Eastern New Mexico/Adjacent High Plains... Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast for southeastern Colorado into portions of far northeastern New Mexico and far western Kansas. Minimum relative humidity of 10-15% and winds of 25 MPH will overlap with critically receptive fuels. While Critical meteorological conditions appear they could extend further south and west of the current area, recent wetting rainfall and a lack of receptive fuels currently limit the expansion of highlights. Still, there are some pockets of receptive fuels in portions of Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle that have yet to receive rain, and some additional highlights may be warranted in future updates. A secondary area of concern in the ensemble guidance could be portions of northern Nebraska into South Dakota/Wyoming, where some members have come in with winds of 25-30 MPH and relative humidity of 10-15% over receptive fuels. However, ensemble spread in the surface winds reduces confidence to introduce these highlights, especially given the members with the strongest winds are models that tend to bias towards aggressive mixing. Still, this area will be monitored for additional highlights in future updates. ...Mid Atlantic... Dry southeasterly return flow is forecast across portions of North Carolina into much of Virginia, where fuels currently exceed the 95th-99th annual percentiles for ERCs. Winds are expected to reach 10-15 MPH with relative humidity around 25-35%, supporting Elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN WYOMING...SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA... ...Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic... A surface trough accelerating eastward into Quebec along with an evolving subtropical ridge over the Atlantic will support dry, southwesterly flow across portions of the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic, resulting in sustained southwest winds of 10-15 mph Monday. The lack of appreciable Gulf moisture return should promote relative humidity in the 25-35% range across the TN Great Valley with RH as low as 20% across portions of VA. Increasing cloud cover and along with some shower and thunderstorm activity should limit fire weather concerns farther north across the OH River Valley. Although RH will be marginally higher than D1/Sunday observed values, fuels remain extremely dry and quite receptive to wildfire spread. The existing Elevated highlights across VA were extended southwestward into eastern TN with convection likely remaining well to the north across KY and WV. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level perturbation embedded within broad southwest flow aloft coupled with a lee surface low across the Northern Plains will result in windy and dry conditions for portions of the central and northern Plains. Introduced Critical Highlights from eastern WY, southwestern SD and northwestern NE where west winds of 20-25 mph (locally 30 mph) will align with relative humidity of 10-15% by mid-afternoon amid a dry and well-mixed boundary layer. These conditions will align with dry and receptive fuels to promote a critical fire weather concern. Farther south, a mid-level jet ejecting into the Southern Plains combined with lee troughing across High Plains will support a Critical fire weather threat for the region Monday. Southwest winds of 20-25 mph and RH reductions into the 10-15% range are likely to evolve by peak afternoon heating. However, a complex fuels arrangement exists across the Southern Plains with some modification and reduced receptivity noted from recent rainfall. Alignment of fire-effective meteorological conditions and most receptive fuels will exist across southeastern CO, far northeastern NM, far southwestern KS and adjacent OK/TX Panhandles where Critical Highlights were largely maintained. ..Williams.. 04/12/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026/ ...Synopsis... Broad southwesterly mid level flow in advance of a trough progressing from California into the Great Basin will be responsible for widespread dry and windy conditions from southeastern New Mexico all the way into portions of eastern Wyoming and South Dakota. Critical fire-weather concerns are forecast for portions of southeastern Colorado into portions of far western Kansas and northern New Mexico. ...Eastern New Mexico/Adjacent High Plains... Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast for southeastern Colorado into portions of far northeastern New Mexico and far western Kansas. Minimum relative humidity of 10-15% and winds of 25 MPH will overlap with critically receptive fuels. While Critical meteorological conditions appear they could extend further south and west of the current area, recent wetting rainfall and a lack of receptive fuels currently limit the expansion of highlights. Still, there are some pockets of receptive fuels in portions of Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle that have yet to receive rain, and some additional highlights may be warranted in future updates. A secondary area of concern in the ensemble guidance could be portions of northern Nebraska into South Dakota/Wyoming, where some members have come in with winds of 25-30 MPH and relative humidity of 10-15% over receptive fuels. However, ensemble spread in the surface winds reduces confidence to introduce these highlights, especially given the members with the strongest winds are models that tend to bias towards aggressive mixing. Still, this area will be monitored for additional highlights in future updates. ...Mid Atlantic... Dry southeasterly return flow is forecast across portions of North Carolina into much of Virginia, where fuels currently exceed the 95th-99th annual percentiles for ERCs. Winds are expected to reach 10-15 MPH with relative humidity around 25-35%, supporting Elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... The western US trough will eject across the Rockies on Tuesday with strengthening westerly flow overspreading the Plains into the Great Lakes Region. A surface low will deepen across western KS/NE with a warm front lifting across the Lower Missouri Valley into the Great Lakes and sharpening dryline across the southern/central Plains. A cold front will sag southward across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. The surface trough/dryline and the boundary across the Great Lakes will become a focus for thunderstorm activity through the forecast period. ...Lower MO Valley to the Great Lakes... Convective coverage will overlap the start of the period near 12z on Tuesday across portions of the Midwest/Great Lakes Region. Trends are for relatively quick clearing across portions of central Iowa into Illinois. As the warm front lifts northward, strong daytime heating is expected amid dew points in the low to mid 60s. It is likely the air mass will recover with potential for moderate to strong instability by the afternoon. Stronger height falls are not expected across the region, as the main upper trough will be focused well to the southwest. However, warm advection atop a southward-sagging surface boundary should support isolated to scattered storm development by late afternoon/evening. The primary risk will be for large to very large hail ( some 2.5"+ in diameter) and damaging wind. By late afternoon/evening, 700 mb flow will strengthen (around 50-60 kts) with a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rate nosing into central Iowa/northern Illinois from the southwest. The 850 mb low-level jet also increases, with large clockwise curved hodographs developing with the resulting increase in low-level shear. If supercells can develop and maintain residency along or south of the warm front, a corridor of greater tornado risk (a couple of which may be strong tornadoes) may present itself. Consideration was given to a 30 percent area (primarily hail driven). With some uncertainty remaining in morning convection and coverage of storms in the afternoon/evening, the 15% was maintained with this outlook until more information can be gleaned from hi-res guidance. ...Southern Plains... Ahead of the dryline across the Southern Plains, strong daytime heating is expected. Large-scale ascent will begin overspreading the region by late afternoon/evening as the western upper trough finally begins to eject eastward. As this occurs, mixing and convergence along a surface dryline should support storm development by around 00z. If little convective development occurs on D2/Monday, a relatively undisturbed moist/very unstable air mass will be in place. It is likely that rather robust thunderstorm development will occur along the dryline, with the primary mode being supercelluar. Large to very large hail (2 to locally 2.5+ inches in diameter), damaging wind, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. Given that deep layer shear profiles have more of a parallel component to the dryline, storm interactions may keep the period of more discrete supercell thunderstorms short, with a shift to clusters of mix-mode supercell and multi-cell storms. ..Thornton.. 04/12/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... The western US trough will eject across the Rockies on Tuesday with strengthening westerly flow overspreading the Plains into the Great Lakes Region. A surface low will deepen across western KS/NE with a warm front lifting across the Lower Missouri Valley into the Great Lakes and sharpening dryline across the southern/central Plains. A cold front will sag southward across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. The surface trough/dryline and the boundary across the Great Lakes will become a focus for thunderstorm activity through the forecast period. ...Lower MO Valley to the Great Lakes... Convective coverage will overlap the start of the period near 12z on Tuesday across portions of the Midwest/Great Lakes Region. Trends are for relatively quick clearing across portions of central Iowa into Illinois. As the warm front lifts northward, strong daytime heating is expected amid dew points in the low to mid 60s. It is likely the air mass will recover with potential for moderate to strong instability by the afternoon. Stronger height falls are not expected across the region, as the main upper trough will be focused well to the southwest. However, warm advection atop a southward-sagging surface boundary should support isolated to scattered storm development by late afternoon/evening. The primary risk will be for large to very large hail ( some 2.5"+ in diameter) and damaging wind. By late afternoon/evening, 700 mb flow will strengthen (around 50-60 kts) with a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rate nosing into central Iowa/northern Illinois from the southwest. The 850 mb low-level jet also increases, with large clockwise curved hodographs developing with the resulting increase in low-level shear. If supercells can develop and maintain residency along or south of the warm front, a corridor of greater tornado risk (a couple of which may be strong tornadoes) may present itself. Consideration was given to a 30 percent area (primarily hail driven). With some uncertainty remaining in morning convection and coverage of storms in the afternoon/evening, the 15% was maintained with this outlook until more information can be gleaned from hi-res guidance. ...Southern Plains... Ahead of the dryline across the Southern Plains, strong daytime heating is expected. Large-scale ascent will begin overspreading the region by late afternoon/evening as the western upper trough finally begins to eject eastward. As this occurs, mixing and convergence along a surface dryline should support storm development by around 00z. If little convective development occurs on D2/Monday, a relatively undisturbed moist/very unstable air mass will be in place. It is likely that rather robust thunderstorm development will occur along the dryline, with the primary mode being supercelluar. Large to very large hail (2 to locally 2.5+ inches in diameter), damaging wind, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. Given that deep layer shear profiles have more of a parallel component to the dryline, storm interactions may keep the period of more discrete supercell thunderstorms short, with a shift to clusters of mix-mode supercell and multi-cell storms. ..Thornton.. 04/12/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... The western US trough will eject across the Rockies on Tuesday with strengthening westerly flow overspreading the Plains into the Great Lakes Region. A surface low will deepen across western KS/NE with a warm front lifting across the Lower Missouri Valley into the Great Lakes and sharpening dryline across the southern/central Plains. A cold front will sag southward across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. The surface trough/dryline and the boundary across the Great Lakes will become a focus for thunderstorm activity through the forecast period. ...Lower MO Valley to the Great Lakes... Convective coverage will overlap the start of the period near 12z on Tuesday across portions of the Midwest/Great Lakes Region. Trends are for relatively quick clearing across portions of central Iowa into Illinois. As the warm front lifts northward, strong daytime heating is expected amid dew points in the low to mid 60s. It is likely the air mass will recover with potential for moderate to strong instability by the afternoon. Stronger height falls are not expected across the region, as the main upper trough will be focused well to the southwest. However, warm advection atop a southward-sagging surface boundary should support isolated to scattered storm development by late afternoon/evening. The primary risk will be for large to very large hail ( some 2.5"+ in diameter) and damaging wind. By late afternoon/evening, 700 mb flow will strengthen (around 50-60 kts) with a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rate nosing into central Iowa/northern Illinois from the southwest. The 850 mb low-level jet also increases, with large clockwise curved hodographs developing with the resulting increase in low-level shear. If supercells can develop and maintain residency along or south of the warm front, a corridor of greater tornado risk (a couple of which may be strong tornadoes) may present itself. Consideration was given to a 30 percent area (primarily hail driven). With some uncertainty remaining in morning convection and coverage of storms in the afternoon/evening, the 15% was maintained with this outlook until more information can be gleaned from hi-res guidance. ...Southern Plains... Ahead of the dryline across the Southern Plains, strong daytime heating is expected. Large-scale ascent will begin overspreading the region by late afternoon/evening as the western upper trough finally begins to eject eastward. As this occurs, mixing and convergence along a surface dryline should support storm development by around 00z. If little convective development occurs on D2/Monday, a relatively undisturbed moist/very unstable air mass will be in place. It is likely that rather robust thunderstorm development will occur along the dryline, with the primary mode being supercelluar. Large to very large hail (2 to locally 2.5+ inches in diameter), damaging wind, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. Given that deep layer shear profiles have more of a parallel component to the dryline, storm interactions may keep the period of more discrete supercell thunderstorms short, with a shift to clusters of mix-mode supercell and multi-cell storms. ..Thornton.. 04/12/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region with potential for large to very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. A more conditional and isolated risk for severe storms is possible across portions of the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... A southwesterly flow regime will continue from the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest on Monday. Low-amplitude upper ridging will move across the Upper Midwest during the day ahead of a shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains. The shortwave will shift east across the Great Lakes overnight. Meanwhile, an upper trough from the northern Rockies to offshore the southern CA coast will pivot eastward toward the Four Corners region. At the surface, low pressure near the SD/NE border will develop east along the MN/IA border to central WI. Lee troughing will persist across the Plains. A dryline will extend southwest from the Mid-MO Valley into western OK/TX, while a warm front extends from southern MN into southern/central WI. These boundaries will become a focus for severe thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. ...Upper Midwest... Along and south of the surface warm front across MN into southern/central WI, strong daytime heating will be occurring amid dew points in the low to mid 60s. This will yield moderate to strong instability with MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg. A plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates will also impinge upon the region through the afternoon. Capping will likely suppress thunderstorm activity for much of the day as the shortwave upper ridge moves across the region. By the late afternoon/early evening, a shortwave trough will overspread the region with an increase in the low-level jet. Thunderstorm activity is expected to develop, with initially elevated supercells likely given strong deep layer shear and thermodynamic profiles. These will be capable of large to very large hail (some 2-3+ inches in diameter). Should any supercells be able to anchor to the warm front and become surface based, the threat for a tornado or two (possibly strong) will increase given large clockwise curved hodographs indicative of favorable low-level shear. An Enhanced Risk was included with this outlook driven by the hail potential. Convection will spread eastward with time into MI, continuing to pose a risk for hail overnight. ...Central/Southern Plains.... A conditional severe risk will extend further down the dryline into the central/southern Plains for the afternoon/evening. Strong daytime heating will yield very warm temperatures ahead of the dryline but most convective temperatures are near or exceeding 90F. Forecast soundings indicate strong capping in place across much of the region through the afternoon with generally weak forcing for ascent outside of the dryline circulation, which will likely inhibit a more widespread severe risk. Nonetheless, moderate to strong instability will overlap increasing deep layer shear as the low-level jet increases through the evening. An isolated supercell threat will be possible along the dryline, with greater confidence along the Red River in northern TX/southwestern OK and further south into Texas near the Rio Grande Valley. Should supercells develop, the main risk will be for large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter). ..Thornton.. 04/12/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region with potential for large to very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. A more conditional and isolated risk for severe storms is possible across portions of the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... A southwesterly flow regime will continue from the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest on Monday. Low-amplitude upper ridging will move across the Upper Midwest during the day ahead of a shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains. The shortwave will shift east across the Great Lakes overnight. Meanwhile, an upper trough from the northern Rockies to offshore the southern CA coast will pivot eastward toward the Four Corners region. At the surface, low pressure near the SD/NE border will develop east along the MN/IA border to central WI. Lee troughing will persist across the Plains. A dryline will extend southwest from the Mid-MO Valley into western OK/TX, while a warm front extends from southern MN into southern/central WI. These boundaries will become a focus for severe thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. ...Upper Midwest... Along and south of the surface warm front across MN into southern/central WI, strong daytime heating will be occurring amid dew points in the low to mid 60s. This will yield moderate to strong instability with MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg. A plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates will also impinge upon the region through the afternoon. Capping will likely suppress thunderstorm activity for much of the day as the shortwave upper ridge moves across the region. By the late afternoon/early evening, a shortwave trough will overspread the region with an increase in the low-level jet. Thunderstorm activity is expected to develop, with initially elevated supercells likely given strong deep layer shear and thermodynamic profiles. These will be capable of large to very large hail (some 2-3+ inches in diameter). Should any supercells be able to anchor to the warm front and become surface based, the threat for a tornado or two (possibly strong) will increase given large clockwise curved hodographs indicative of favorable low-level shear. An Enhanced Risk was included with this outlook driven by the hail potential. Convection will spread eastward with time into MI, continuing to pose a risk for hail overnight. ...Central/Southern Plains.... A conditional severe risk will extend further down the dryline into the central/southern Plains for the afternoon/evening. Strong daytime heating will yield very warm temperatures ahead of the dryline but most convective temperatures are near or exceeding 90F. Forecast soundings indicate strong capping in place across much of the region through the afternoon with generally weak forcing for ascent outside of the dryline circulation, which will likely inhibit a more widespread severe risk. Nonetheless, moderate to strong instability will overlap increasing deep layer shear as the low-level jet increases through the evening. An isolated supercell threat will be possible along the dryline, with greater confidence along the Red River in northern TX/southwestern OK and further south into Texas near the Rio Grande Valley. Should supercells develop, the main risk will be for large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter). ..Thornton.. 04/12/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region with potential for large to very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. A more conditional and isolated risk for severe storms is possible across portions of the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... A southwesterly flow regime will continue from the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest on Monday. Low-amplitude upper ridging will move across the Upper Midwest during the day ahead of a shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains. The shortwave will shift east across the Great Lakes overnight. Meanwhile, an upper trough from the northern Rockies to offshore the southern CA coast will pivot eastward toward the Four Corners region. At the surface, low pressure near the SD/NE border will develop east along the MN/IA border to central WI. Lee troughing will persist across the Plains. A dryline will extend southwest from the Mid-MO Valley into western OK/TX, while a warm front extends from southern MN into southern/central WI. These boundaries will become a focus for severe thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. ...Upper Midwest... Along and south of the surface warm front across MN into southern/central WI, strong daytime heating will be occurring amid dew points in the low to mid 60s. This will yield moderate to strong instability with MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg. A plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates will also impinge upon the region through the afternoon. Capping will likely suppress thunderstorm activity for much of the day as the shortwave upper ridge moves across the region. By the late afternoon/early evening, a shortwave trough will overspread the region with an increase in the low-level jet. Thunderstorm activity is expected to develop, with initially elevated supercells likely given strong deep layer shear and thermodynamic profiles. These will be capable of large to very large hail (some 2-3+ inches in diameter). Should any supercells be able to anchor to the warm front and become surface based, the threat for a tornado or two (possibly strong) will increase given large clockwise curved hodographs indicative of favorable low-level shear. An Enhanced Risk was included with this outlook driven by the hail potential. Convection will spread eastward with time into MI, continuing to pose a risk for hail overnight. ...Central/Southern Plains.... A conditional severe risk will extend further down the dryline into the central/southern Plains for the afternoon/evening. Strong daytime heating will yield very warm temperatures ahead of the dryline but most convective temperatures are near or exceeding 90F. Forecast soundings indicate strong capping in place across much of the region through the afternoon with generally weak forcing for ascent outside of the dryline circulation, which will likely inhibit a more widespread severe risk. Nonetheless, moderate to strong instability will overlap increasing deep layer shear as the low-level jet increases through the evening. An isolated supercell threat will be possible along the dryline, with greater confidence along the Red River in northern TX/southwestern OK and further south into Texas near the Rio Grande Valley. Should supercells develop, the main risk will be for large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter). ..Thornton.. 04/12/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region with potential for large to very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. A more conditional and isolated risk for severe storms is possible across portions of the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... A southwesterly flow regime will continue from the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest on Monday. Low-amplitude upper ridging will move across the Upper Midwest during the day ahead of a shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains. The shortwave will shift east across the Great Lakes overnight. Meanwhile, an upper trough from the northern Rockies to offshore the southern CA coast will pivot eastward toward the Four Corners region. At the surface, low pressure near the SD/NE border will develop east along the MN/IA border to central WI. Lee troughing will persist across the Plains. A dryline will extend southwest from the Mid-MO Valley into western OK/TX, while a warm front extends from southern MN into southern/central WI. These boundaries will become a focus for severe thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. ...Upper Midwest... Along and south of the surface warm front across MN into southern/central WI, strong daytime heating will be occurring amid dew points in the low to mid 60s. This will yield moderate to strong instability with MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg. A plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates will also impinge upon the region through the afternoon. Capping will likely suppress thunderstorm activity for much of the day as the shortwave upper ridge moves across the region. By the late afternoon/early evening, a shortwave trough will overspread the region with an increase in the low-level jet. Thunderstorm activity is expected to develop, with initially elevated supercells likely given strong deep layer shear and thermodynamic profiles. These will be capable of large to very large hail (some 2-3+ inches in diameter). Should any supercells be able to anchor to the warm front and become surface based, the threat for a tornado or two (possibly strong) will increase given large clockwise curved hodographs indicative of favorable low-level shear. An Enhanced Risk was included with this outlook driven by the hail potential. Convection will spread eastward with time into MI, continuing to pose a risk for hail overnight. ...Central/Southern Plains.... A conditional severe risk will extend further down the dryline into the central/southern Plains for the afternoon/evening. Strong daytime heating will yield very warm temperatures ahead of the dryline but most convective temperatures are near or exceeding 90F. Forecast soundings indicate strong capping in place across much of the region through the afternoon with generally weak forcing for ascent outside of the dryline circulation, which will likely inhibit a more widespread severe risk. Nonetheless, moderate to strong instability will overlap increasing deep layer shear as the low-level jet increases through the evening. An isolated supercell threat will be possible along the dryline, with greater confidence along the Red River in northern TX/southwestern OK and further south into Texas near the Rio Grande Valley. Should supercells develop, the main risk will be for large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter). ..Thornton.. 04/12/2026 Read more