SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Valid 121630Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TX...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today into
evening mainly across parts of Texas and perhaps other nearby parts
of the southern Plains. More isolated severe storms may occur across
portions of the Upper Great Lakes and northern Rockies.
...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of phased shortwave troughs
over the Plains, one moving through the Dakotas and another moving
through KS/OK. Both of these waves are forecast to continue
northeastward through the day, with the northern wave reaching
northwestern Ontario and the southern wave reaching the Great Lakes
region. This evolution will take these waves east/northeast of the
higher low-level moisture, which will remain in a corridor from the
southern Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated throughout much of this corridor
today, with highest thunderstorm chances across central/east TX and
from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes.
Farther west, an upper low is slowly drifting eastward across
northern CA. Guidance suggests this eastward drift will continue
today, with several shortwave troughs rotating quickly through the
base of this system and ejecting across the Great Basin and northern
Rockies. Large-scale ascent and modest mid-level moisture associated
with these waves will combine with cold temperatures aloft and
associated buoyancy to support thunderstorms today from northern CA
across the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies, and into the
northern Plains.
...Southern/Central Plains...
Much of this region will be displaced south and west of any notable
large-scale forcing for ascent. This limited ascent, combined with
the showers and isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing across
central and east TX, complicates the overall forecast today, with
mesoscale factors likely contributing significantly to when and
where storms develop this afternoon and evening. General expectation
is for development along the southern and western periphery on the
ongoing storms (i.e. from southeast/south-central TX into southwest
TX) later this afternoon and this evening. This redevelopment will
be supported by a combination of moist advection, modest heating,
and limited low-level convergence. Moderate to strong buoyancy amid
moderate vertical shear could support supercells if the mode remains
discrete. However, the weakness in the mid-level flow suggests
storms may tend to cluster, a scenario that is supported by most CAM
guidance. Buoyancy and shear are still strong enough to support
rotating updrafts and large hail early in the convective cycle, but
the trends towards a messy convective mode could limit the
persistence and coverage of robust updrafts. Damaging gusts are
possible even with the clustered storm mode, especially given there
is some potential for slightly more organized bowing segments over
time.
Farther west, mid-level height rises/subsidence are anticipated
coincident with the dryline from central Kansas south-southwestward
across western Oklahoma and west/southwest Texas. The environment,
characterized by 1500 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30 to 40 kt of
westerly deep-layer shear, is conditionally supportive of supercells
capable of all severe hazards. However, the previously mentioned
height rises and subsidence, combined with modest convective
inhibition, are generally expected to preclude thunderstorm
development. Even so, given the conditional risk, Marginal risk
probabilities will be maintained.
...Minnesota/Wisconsin...
Recent surface analysis places a low just west of FAR, with a warm
front extending southwestward across central/southeast MN and
southern WI. This low is forecast to move eastward today, while the
warm front expands northward. A narrow corridor of surface-based
buoyancy could develop from north-central MN into far northwest WI
as dewpoints increase in the upper 50s (perhaps even low 60s).
Thunderstorm initiation appears possible along the cold front within
this corridor, although veered low-level flow and northward/westward
displacement of the better forcing casts doubt to whether updrafts
will be maintained. Any storms that do mature within this warm
sector should become supercells capable of all severe hazards,
including large hail and tornadoes. However, low confidence in storm
development and maturity precludes higher probabilities with this
outlook.
...Northern Rockies...
Mid-level moisture will support another day of modest surface-based
buoyancy ahead of the shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis.
Persistent 30-40 knot flow within the CAPE-bearing layer combined
with somewhat deep boundary-layer mixing will support strong to
severe downburst winds with the more robust convective cells, mainly
this afternoon through early evening.
..Mosier/Squitieri.. 04/12/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Valid 121630Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TX...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today into
evening mainly across parts of Texas and perhaps other nearby parts
of the southern Plains. More isolated severe storms may occur across
portions of the Upper Great Lakes and northern Rockies.
...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of phased shortwave troughs
over the Plains, one moving through the Dakotas and another moving
through KS/OK. Both of these waves are forecast to continue
northeastward through the day, with the northern wave reaching
northwestern Ontario and the southern wave reaching the Great Lakes
region. This evolution will take these waves east/northeast of the
higher low-level moisture, which will remain in a corridor from the
southern Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated throughout much of this corridor
today, with highest thunderstorm chances across central/east TX and
from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes.
Farther west, an upper low is slowly drifting eastward across
northern CA. Guidance suggests this eastward drift will continue
today, with several shortwave troughs rotating quickly through the
base of this system and ejecting across the Great Basin and northern
Rockies. Large-scale ascent and modest mid-level moisture associated
with these waves will combine with cold temperatures aloft and
associated buoyancy to support thunderstorms today from northern CA
across the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies, and into the
northern Plains.
...Southern/Central Plains...
Much of this region will be displaced south and west of any notable
large-scale forcing for ascent. This limited ascent, combined with
the showers and isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing across
central and east TX, complicates the overall forecast today, with
mesoscale factors likely contributing significantly to when and
where storms develop this afternoon and evening. General expectation
is for development along the southern and western periphery on the
ongoing storms (i.e. from southeast/south-central TX into southwest
TX) later this afternoon and this evening. This redevelopment will
be supported by a combination of moist advection, modest heating,
and limited low-level convergence. Moderate to strong buoyancy amid
moderate vertical shear could support supercells if the mode remains
discrete. However, the weakness in the mid-level flow suggests
storms may tend to cluster, a scenario that is supported by most CAM
guidance. Buoyancy and shear are still strong enough to support
rotating updrafts and large hail early in the convective cycle, but
the trends towards a messy convective mode could limit the
persistence and coverage of robust updrafts. Damaging gusts are
possible even with the clustered storm mode, especially given there
is some potential for slightly more organized bowing segments over
time.
Farther west, mid-level height rises/subsidence are anticipated
coincident with the dryline from central Kansas south-southwestward
across western Oklahoma and west/southwest Texas. The environment,
characterized by 1500 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30 to 40 kt of
westerly deep-layer shear, is conditionally supportive of supercells
capable of all severe hazards. However, the previously mentioned
height rises and subsidence, combined with modest convective
inhibition, are generally expected to preclude thunderstorm
development. Even so, given the conditional risk, Marginal risk
probabilities will be maintained.
...Minnesota/Wisconsin...
Recent surface analysis places a low just west of FAR, with a warm
front extending southwestward across central/southeast MN and
southern WI. This low is forecast to move eastward today, while the
warm front expands northward. A narrow corridor of surface-based
buoyancy could develop from north-central MN into far northwest WI
as dewpoints increase in the upper 50s (perhaps even low 60s).
Thunderstorm initiation appears possible along the cold front within
this corridor, although veered low-level flow and northward/westward
displacement of the better forcing casts doubt to whether updrafts
will be maintained. Any storms that do mature within this warm
sector should become supercells capable of all severe hazards,
including large hail and tornadoes. However, low confidence in storm
development and maturity precludes higher probabilities with this
outlook.
...Northern Rockies...
Mid-level moisture will support another day of modest surface-based
buoyancy ahead of the shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis.
Persistent 30-40 knot flow within the CAPE-bearing layer combined
with somewhat deep boundary-layer mixing will support strong to
severe downburst winds with the more robust convective cells, mainly
this afternoon through early evening.
..Mosier/Squitieri.. 04/12/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Valid 121630Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TX...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today into
evening mainly across parts of Texas and perhaps other nearby parts
of the southern Plains. More isolated severe storms may occur across
portions of the Upper Great Lakes and northern Rockies.
...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of phased shortwave troughs
over the Plains, one moving through the Dakotas and another moving
through KS/OK. Both of these waves are forecast to continue
northeastward through the day, with the northern wave reaching
northwestern Ontario and the southern wave reaching the Great Lakes
region. This evolution will take these waves east/northeast of the
higher low-level moisture, which will remain in a corridor from the
southern Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated throughout much of this corridor
today, with highest thunderstorm chances across central/east TX and
from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes.
Farther west, an upper low is slowly drifting eastward across
northern CA. Guidance suggests this eastward drift will continue
today, with several shortwave troughs rotating quickly through the
base of this system and ejecting across the Great Basin and northern
Rockies. Large-scale ascent and modest mid-level moisture associated
with these waves will combine with cold temperatures aloft and
associated buoyancy to support thunderstorms today from northern CA
across the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies, and into the
northern Plains.
...Southern/Central Plains...
Much of this region will be displaced south and west of any notable
large-scale forcing for ascent. This limited ascent, combined with
the showers and isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing across
central and east TX, complicates the overall forecast today, with
mesoscale factors likely contributing significantly to when and
where storms develop this afternoon and evening. General expectation
is for development along the southern and western periphery on the
ongoing storms (i.e. from southeast/south-central TX into southwest
TX) later this afternoon and this evening. This redevelopment will
be supported by a combination of moist advection, modest heating,
and limited low-level convergence. Moderate to strong buoyancy amid
moderate vertical shear could support supercells if the mode remains
discrete. However, the weakness in the mid-level flow suggests
storms may tend to cluster, a scenario that is supported by most CAM
guidance. Buoyancy and shear are still strong enough to support
rotating updrafts and large hail early in the convective cycle, but
the trends towards a messy convective mode could limit the
persistence and coverage of robust updrafts. Damaging gusts are
possible even with the clustered storm mode, especially given there
is some potential for slightly more organized bowing segments over
time.
Farther west, mid-level height rises/subsidence are anticipated
coincident with the dryline from central Kansas south-southwestward
across western Oklahoma and west/southwest Texas. The environment,
characterized by 1500 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30 to 40 kt of
westerly deep-layer shear, is conditionally supportive of supercells
capable of all severe hazards. However, the previously mentioned
height rises and subsidence, combined with modest convective
inhibition, are generally expected to preclude thunderstorm
development. Even so, given the conditional risk, Marginal risk
probabilities will be maintained.
...Minnesota/Wisconsin...
Recent surface analysis places a low just west of FAR, with a warm
front extending southwestward across central/southeast MN and
southern WI. This low is forecast to move eastward today, while the
warm front expands northward. A narrow corridor of surface-based
buoyancy could develop from north-central MN into far northwest WI
as dewpoints increase in the upper 50s (perhaps even low 60s).
Thunderstorm initiation appears possible along the cold front within
this corridor, although veered low-level flow and northward/westward
displacement of the better forcing casts doubt to whether updrafts
will be maintained. Any storms that do mature within this warm
sector should become supercells capable of all severe hazards,
including large hail and tornadoes. However, low confidence in storm
development and maturity precludes higher probabilities with this
outlook.
...Northern Rockies...
Mid-level moisture will support another day of modest surface-based
buoyancy ahead of the shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis.
Persistent 30-40 knot flow within the CAPE-bearing layer combined
with somewhat deep boundary-layer mixing will support strong to
severe downburst winds with the more robust convective cells, mainly
this afternoon through early evening.
..Mosier/Squitieri.. 04/12/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Valid 121630Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TX...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today into
evening mainly across parts of Texas and perhaps other nearby parts
of the southern Plains. More isolated severe storms may occur across
portions of the Upper Great Lakes and northern Rockies.
...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of phased shortwave troughs
over the Plains, one moving through the Dakotas and another moving
through KS/OK. Both of these waves are forecast to continue
northeastward through the day, with the northern wave reaching
northwestern Ontario and the southern wave reaching the Great Lakes
region. This evolution will take these waves east/northeast of the
higher low-level moisture, which will remain in a corridor from the
southern Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated throughout much of this corridor
today, with highest thunderstorm chances across central/east TX and
from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes.
Farther west, an upper low is slowly drifting eastward across
northern CA. Guidance suggests this eastward drift will continue
today, with several shortwave troughs rotating quickly through the
base of this system and ejecting across the Great Basin and northern
Rockies. Large-scale ascent and modest mid-level moisture associated
with these waves will combine with cold temperatures aloft and
associated buoyancy to support thunderstorms today from northern CA
across the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies, and into the
northern Plains.
...Southern/Central Plains...
Much of this region will be displaced south and west of any notable
large-scale forcing for ascent. This limited ascent, combined with
the showers and isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing across
central and east TX, complicates the overall forecast today, with
mesoscale factors likely contributing significantly to when and
where storms develop this afternoon and evening. General expectation
is for development along the southern and western periphery on the
ongoing storms (i.e. from southeast/south-central TX into southwest
TX) later this afternoon and this evening. This redevelopment will
be supported by a combination of moist advection, modest heating,
and limited low-level convergence. Moderate to strong buoyancy amid
moderate vertical shear could support supercells if the mode remains
discrete. However, the weakness in the mid-level flow suggests
storms may tend to cluster, a scenario that is supported by most CAM
guidance. Buoyancy and shear are still strong enough to support
rotating updrafts and large hail early in the convective cycle, but
the trends towards a messy convective mode could limit the
persistence and coverage of robust updrafts. Damaging gusts are
possible even with the clustered storm mode, especially given there
is some potential for slightly more organized bowing segments over
time.
Farther west, mid-level height rises/subsidence are anticipated
coincident with the dryline from central Kansas south-southwestward
across western Oklahoma and west/southwest Texas. The environment,
characterized by 1500 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30 to 40 kt of
westerly deep-layer shear, is conditionally supportive of supercells
capable of all severe hazards. However, the previously mentioned
height rises and subsidence, combined with modest convective
inhibition, are generally expected to preclude thunderstorm
development. Even so, given the conditional risk, Marginal risk
probabilities will be maintained.
...Minnesota/Wisconsin...
Recent surface analysis places a low just west of FAR, with a warm
front extending southwestward across central/southeast MN and
southern WI. This low is forecast to move eastward today, while the
warm front expands northward. A narrow corridor of surface-based
buoyancy could develop from north-central MN into far northwest WI
as dewpoints increase in the upper 50s (perhaps even low 60s).
Thunderstorm initiation appears possible along the cold front within
this corridor, although veered low-level flow and northward/westward
displacement of the better forcing casts doubt to whether updrafts
will be maintained. Any storms that do mature within this warm
sector should become supercells capable of all severe hazards,
including large hail and tornadoes. However, low confidence in storm
development and maturity precludes higher probabilities with this
outlook.
...Northern Rockies...
Mid-level moisture will support another day of modest surface-based
buoyancy ahead of the shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis.
Persistent 30-40 knot flow within the CAPE-bearing layer combined
with somewhat deep boundary-layer mixing will support strong to
severe downburst winds with the more robust convective cells, mainly
this afternoon through early evening.
..Mosier/Squitieri.. 04/12/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Valid 121630Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TX...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today into
evening mainly across parts of Texas and perhaps other nearby parts
of the southern Plains. More isolated severe storms may occur across
portions of the Upper Great Lakes and northern Rockies.
...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of phased shortwave troughs
over the Plains, one moving through the Dakotas and another moving
through KS/OK. Both of these waves are forecast to continue
northeastward through the day, with the northern wave reaching
northwestern Ontario and the southern wave reaching the Great Lakes
region. This evolution will take these waves east/northeast of the
higher low-level moisture, which will remain in a corridor from the
southern Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated throughout much of this corridor
today, with highest thunderstorm chances across central/east TX and
from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes.
Farther west, an upper low is slowly drifting eastward across
northern CA. Guidance suggests this eastward drift will continue
today, with several shortwave troughs rotating quickly through the
base of this system and ejecting across the Great Basin and northern
Rockies. Large-scale ascent and modest mid-level moisture associated
with these waves will combine with cold temperatures aloft and
associated buoyancy to support thunderstorms today from northern CA
across the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies, and into the
northern Plains.
...Southern/Central Plains...
Much of this region will be displaced south and west of any notable
large-scale forcing for ascent. This limited ascent, combined with
the showers and isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing across
central and east TX, complicates the overall forecast today, with
mesoscale factors likely contributing significantly to when and
where storms develop this afternoon and evening. General expectation
is for development along the southern and western periphery on the
ongoing storms (i.e. from southeast/south-central TX into southwest
TX) later this afternoon and this evening. This redevelopment will
be supported by a combination of moist advection, modest heating,
and limited low-level convergence. Moderate to strong buoyancy amid
moderate vertical shear could support supercells if the mode remains
discrete. However, the weakness in the mid-level flow suggests
storms may tend to cluster, a scenario that is supported by most CAM
guidance. Buoyancy and shear are still strong enough to support
rotating updrafts and large hail early in the convective cycle, but
the trends towards a messy convective mode could limit the
persistence and coverage of robust updrafts. Damaging gusts are
possible even with the clustered storm mode, especially given there
is some potential for slightly more organized bowing segments over
time.
Farther west, mid-level height rises/subsidence are anticipated
coincident with the dryline from central Kansas south-southwestward
across western Oklahoma and west/southwest Texas. The environment,
characterized by 1500 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30 to 40 kt of
westerly deep-layer shear, is conditionally supportive of supercells
capable of all severe hazards. However, the previously mentioned
height rises and subsidence, combined with modest convective
inhibition, are generally expected to preclude thunderstorm
development. Even so, given the conditional risk, Marginal risk
probabilities will be maintained.
...Minnesota/Wisconsin...
Recent surface analysis places a low just west of FAR, with a warm
front extending southwestward across central/southeast MN and
southern WI. This low is forecast to move eastward today, while the
warm front expands northward. A narrow corridor of surface-based
buoyancy could develop from north-central MN into far northwest WI
as dewpoints increase in the upper 50s (perhaps even low 60s).
Thunderstorm initiation appears possible along the cold front within
this corridor, although veered low-level flow and northward/westward
displacement of the better forcing casts doubt to whether updrafts
will be maintained. Any storms that do mature within this warm
sector should become supercells capable of all severe hazards,
including large hail and tornadoes. However, low confidence in storm
development and maturity precludes higher probabilities with this
outlook.
...Northern Rockies...
Mid-level moisture will support another day of modest surface-based
buoyancy ahead of the shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis.
Persistent 30-40 knot flow within the CAPE-bearing layer combined
with somewhat deep boundary-layer mixing will support strong to
severe downburst winds with the more robust convective cells, mainly
this afternoon through early evening.
..Mosier/Squitieri.. 04/12/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Valid 121700Z - 131200Z
...Central Plains...
Dry and breezy conditions in the wake of a departing surface low are
still expected across southeastern WY into southern ND and much of
northwestern NE through this afternoon. West winds of 15-20 mph
along with relative humidity in the 15-20% range will support
elevated fire weather conditions as far east as the Sioux Falls area
based on latest model guidance, where an eastward expansion of
Elevated highlights was appropriate.
...Southeast and Appalachians...
A tightening surface pressure gradient between the low entering the
Upper Midwest and high pressure sliding eastward off the
Mid-Atlantic Coast, will support steady south/southwest sustained
winds of around 10 mph (locally 15 mph) across much of the Southeast
and Appalachians through today. A relatively dry air mass remains in
place with RH falling to as low as 20% during peak afternoon
heating. Fuels remain exceptionally dry and receptive to wildfire
spread with ERC values reaching into the 95th to 99th percentiles
amid an expanding drought. The increased south/southwest flow and
low afternoon RH will support a broad area of elevated fire weather
conditions from the mid MS River Valley to the OH River Valley. An
eastward expansion of Elevated highlights into portions WV, southern
Appalachians and northern GA was warranted based on latest near term
model guidance.
See previous discussion for additional forecast details.
..Williams.. 04/12/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026/
...Synopsis...
Broad and intensifying southwest flow aloft and an intensifying
surface cyclone progressing from the northern plains into the upper
Midwest will be responsible for widespread dry and windy conditions
across much of the southwestern U.S. into the Great Plains this
afternoon.
...Southwest and Four Corners...
Deeply mixed and dry boundary layer profiles will support strong
southwesterly surface winds across much of the Southwest into the
Four Corners region, reaching 20 MPH (gusting 25-30 in some regions)
with widespread relative humidity of 10-15%. These conditions will
coincide with a wide array of fuel conditions ranging from
marginally to modestly receptive. Locally Critical conditions may
occur, with some signal for a corridor of stronger winds in
south-central Utah. However, overall marginal fuels and lack of
confidence in the duration and magnitude of surface winds reaching
Critical criteria preclude highlights at this time.
...Central High Plains...
Surface conditions behind the dryline in the Central High Plains
will be quite gusty and dry, with winds of 20-25 MPH and relative
humidity as low as 10% across much of the region. However, these
conditions overlap a complex fuelsape where recent showers and
thunderstorms have dampened fuels across portions of
central/southern Colorado into New Mexico. Further north into
portions of Wyoming and Nebraska, where fuels are more receptive,
winds are expected to remain at or around 20 MPH, with gusts
exceeding 25 MPH. Locally critical conditions may occur in portions
of northern Nebraska.
...Ohio River Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley...
Ongoing drought conditions coupled with dry and breezy southerly
flow will result in Elevated fire-weather concerns across portions
of the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio River Valley. Surface winds
of 10-15 MPH and relative humidity of 25-35% will overlap with fuels
exceeding the 95th-99th annual ERC percentiles.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Valid 121700Z - 131200Z
...Central Plains...
Dry and breezy conditions in the wake of a departing surface low are
still expected across southeastern WY into southern ND and much of
northwestern NE through this afternoon. West winds of 15-20 mph
along with relative humidity in the 15-20% range will support
elevated fire weather conditions as far east as the Sioux Falls area
based on latest model guidance, where an eastward expansion of
Elevated highlights was appropriate.
...Southeast and Appalachians...
A tightening surface pressure gradient between the low entering the
Upper Midwest and high pressure sliding eastward off the
Mid-Atlantic Coast, will support steady south/southwest sustained
winds of around 10 mph (locally 15 mph) across much of the Southeast
and Appalachians through today. A relatively dry air mass remains in
place with RH falling to as low as 20% during peak afternoon
heating. Fuels remain exceptionally dry and receptive to wildfire
spread with ERC values reaching into the 95th to 99th percentiles
amid an expanding drought. The increased south/southwest flow and
low afternoon RH will support a broad area of elevated fire weather
conditions from the mid MS River Valley to the OH River Valley. An
eastward expansion of Elevated highlights into portions WV, southern
Appalachians and northern GA was warranted based on latest near term
model guidance.
See previous discussion for additional forecast details.
..Williams.. 04/12/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026/
...Synopsis...
Broad and intensifying southwest flow aloft and an intensifying
surface cyclone progressing from the northern plains into the upper
Midwest will be responsible for widespread dry and windy conditions
across much of the southwestern U.S. into the Great Plains this
afternoon.
...Southwest and Four Corners...
Deeply mixed and dry boundary layer profiles will support strong
southwesterly surface winds across much of the Southwest into the
Four Corners region, reaching 20 MPH (gusting 25-30 in some regions)
with widespread relative humidity of 10-15%. These conditions will
coincide with a wide array of fuel conditions ranging from
marginally to modestly receptive. Locally Critical conditions may
occur, with some signal for a corridor of stronger winds in
south-central Utah. However, overall marginal fuels and lack of
confidence in the duration and magnitude of surface winds reaching
Critical criteria preclude highlights at this time.
...Central High Plains...
Surface conditions behind the dryline in the Central High Plains
will be quite gusty and dry, with winds of 20-25 MPH and relative
humidity as low as 10% across much of the region. However, these
conditions overlap a complex fuelsape where recent showers and
thunderstorms have dampened fuels across portions of
central/southern Colorado into New Mexico. Further north into
portions of Wyoming and Nebraska, where fuels are more receptive,
winds are expected to remain at or around 20 MPH, with gusts
exceeding 25 MPH. Locally critical conditions may occur in portions
of northern Nebraska.
...Ohio River Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley...
Ongoing drought conditions coupled with dry and breezy southerly
flow will result in Elevated fire-weather concerns across portions
of the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio River Valley. Surface winds
of 10-15 MPH and relative humidity of 25-35% will overlap with fuels
exceeding the 95th-99th annual ERC percentiles.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Valid 121700Z - 131200Z
...Central Plains...
Dry and breezy conditions in the wake of a departing surface low are
still expected across southeastern WY into southern ND and much of
northwestern NE through this afternoon. West winds of 15-20 mph
along with relative humidity in the 15-20% range will support
elevated fire weather conditions as far east as the Sioux Falls area
based on latest model guidance, where an eastward expansion of
Elevated highlights was appropriate.
...Southeast and Appalachians...
A tightening surface pressure gradient between the low entering the
Upper Midwest and high pressure sliding eastward off the
Mid-Atlantic Coast, will support steady south/southwest sustained
winds of around 10 mph (locally 15 mph) across much of the Southeast
and Appalachians through today. A relatively dry air mass remains in
place with RH falling to as low as 20% during peak afternoon
heating. Fuels remain exceptionally dry and receptive to wildfire
spread with ERC values reaching into the 95th to 99th percentiles
amid an expanding drought. The increased south/southwest flow and
low afternoon RH will support a broad area of elevated fire weather
conditions from the mid MS River Valley to the OH River Valley. An
eastward expansion of Elevated highlights into portions WV, southern
Appalachians and northern GA was warranted based on latest near term
model guidance.
See previous discussion for additional forecast details.
..Williams.. 04/12/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026/
...Synopsis...
Broad and intensifying southwest flow aloft and an intensifying
surface cyclone progressing from the northern plains into the upper
Midwest will be responsible for widespread dry and windy conditions
across much of the southwestern U.S. into the Great Plains this
afternoon.
...Southwest and Four Corners...
Deeply mixed and dry boundary layer profiles will support strong
southwesterly surface winds across much of the Southwest into the
Four Corners region, reaching 20 MPH (gusting 25-30 in some regions)
with widespread relative humidity of 10-15%. These conditions will
coincide with a wide array of fuel conditions ranging from
marginally to modestly receptive. Locally Critical conditions may
occur, with some signal for a corridor of stronger winds in
south-central Utah. However, overall marginal fuels and lack of
confidence in the duration and magnitude of surface winds reaching
Critical criteria preclude highlights at this time.
...Central High Plains...
Surface conditions behind the dryline in the Central High Plains
will be quite gusty and dry, with winds of 20-25 MPH and relative
humidity as low as 10% across much of the region. However, these
conditions overlap a complex fuelsape where recent showers and
thunderstorms have dampened fuels across portions of
central/southern Colorado into New Mexico. Further north into
portions of Wyoming and Nebraska, where fuels are more receptive,
winds are expected to remain at or around 20 MPH, with gusts
exceeding 25 MPH. Locally critical conditions may occur in portions
of northern Nebraska.
...Ohio River Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley...
Ongoing drought conditions coupled with dry and breezy southerly
flow will result in Elevated fire-weather concerns across portions
of the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio River Valley. Surface winds
of 10-15 MPH and relative humidity of 25-35% will overlap with fuels
exceeding the 95th-99th annual ERC percentiles.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Valid 121700Z - 131200Z
...Central Plains...
Dry and breezy conditions in the wake of a departing surface low are
still expected across southeastern WY into southern ND and much of
northwestern NE through this afternoon. West winds of 15-20 mph
along with relative humidity in the 15-20% range will support
elevated fire weather conditions as far east as the Sioux Falls area
based on latest model guidance, where an eastward expansion of
Elevated highlights was appropriate.
...Southeast and Appalachians...
A tightening surface pressure gradient between the low entering the
Upper Midwest and high pressure sliding eastward off the
Mid-Atlantic Coast, will support steady south/southwest sustained
winds of around 10 mph (locally 15 mph) across much of the Southeast
and Appalachians through today. A relatively dry air mass remains in
place with RH falling to as low as 20% during peak afternoon
heating. Fuels remain exceptionally dry and receptive to wildfire
spread with ERC values reaching into the 95th to 99th percentiles
amid an expanding drought. The increased south/southwest flow and
low afternoon RH will support a broad area of elevated fire weather
conditions from the mid MS River Valley to the OH River Valley. An
eastward expansion of Elevated highlights into portions WV, southern
Appalachians and northern GA was warranted based on latest near term
model guidance.
See previous discussion for additional forecast details.
..Williams.. 04/12/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026/
...Synopsis...
Broad and intensifying southwest flow aloft and an intensifying
surface cyclone progressing from the northern plains into the upper
Midwest will be responsible for widespread dry and windy conditions
across much of the southwestern U.S. into the Great Plains this
afternoon.
...Southwest and Four Corners...
Deeply mixed and dry boundary layer profiles will support strong
southwesterly surface winds across much of the Southwest into the
Four Corners region, reaching 20 MPH (gusting 25-30 in some regions)
with widespread relative humidity of 10-15%. These conditions will
coincide with a wide array of fuel conditions ranging from
marginally to modestly receptive. Locally Critical conditions may
occur, with some signal for a corridor of stronger winds in
south-central Utah. However, overall marginal fuels and lack of
confidence in the duration and magnitude of surface winds reaching
Critical criteria preclude highlights at this time.
...Central High Plains...
Surface conditions behind the dryline in the Central High Plains
will be quite gusty and dry, with winds of 20-25 MPH and relative
humidity as low as 10% across much of the region. However, these
conditions overlap a complex fuelsape where recent showers and
thunderstorms have dampened fuels across portions of
central/southern Colorado into New Mexico. Further north into
portions of Wyoming and Nebraska, where fuels are more receptive,
winds are expected to remain at or around 20 MPH, with gusts
exceeding 25 MPH. Locally critical conditions may occur in portions
of northern Nebraska.
...Ohio River Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley...
Ongoing drought conditions coupled with dry and breezy southerly
flow will result in Elevated fire-weather concerns across portions
of the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio River Valley. Surface winds
of 10-15 MPH and relative humidity of 25-35% will overlap with fuels
exceeding the 95th-99th annual ERC percentiles.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Valid 121300Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today into
evening mainly across parts of Texas and perhaps other nearby parts
of the southern Plains. More isolated severe storms may occur across
portions of the Upper Great Lakes and northern Rockies.
...Texas/Southern Plains...
A rather complex scenario exists early today attributable to several
factors including an MCS that de-intensified/decayed generally near
I-35 in Texas overnight, with residual cloud cover and outflow
impacts. Potentially focused in vicinity of outflow, the passing
mid-level wave and persistent warm/moist advection may support storm
persistence and redevelopment/intensification later today across
central Texas into parts of east Texas and possibly Louisiana within
a moderately unstable environment.
In the wake of the mid-level wave, mid-level height rises/subsidence
are otherwise anticipated coincident with the dryline from central
Kansas south-southwestward across western Oklahoma and
west/southwest Texas. The extent and likelihood of storm development
later today is highly uncertain, but if/where storms do form, the
environment would generally be supportive of supercells and related
hazards given ample buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear.
...Minnesota/Wisconsin...
A surface low over the northern Plains will migrate eastward along
the U.S./Canadian border through the day, reaching northern
Minnesota by around peak heating. A narrow tongue of returning
moisture may support a corridor of sufficient ascent and buoyancy
for deep convection. A few surface-based supercells could occur
along the frontal zone where dewpoints may reach into the mid/upper
50s F. While this potential appears low/uncertain per latest
guidance, some tornado threat could materialize along the front.
Hail/wind will otherwise be possible regionally on an isolated
basis.
...Northern Rockies...
Ahead of an approaching upper wave, mid-level moisture will support
another day of fairly modest surface-based buoyancy with persistent
30-40 knot flow within the CAPE-bearing layer. Combined with
somewhat deep boundary-layer mixing, this may support strong to
severe downburst winds with the more robust convective cells, mainly
this afternoon through early evening.
..Guyer/Broyles.. 04/12/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Valid 121300Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today into
evening mainly across parts of Texas and perhaps other nearby parts
of the southern Plains. More isolated severe storms may occur across
portions of the Upper Great Lakes and northern Rockies.
...Texas/Southern Plains...
A rather complex scenario exists early today attributable to several
factors including an MCS that de-intensified/decayed generally near
I-35 in Texas overnight, with residual cloud cover and outflow
impacts. Potentially focused in vicinity of outflow, the passing
mid-level wave and persistent warm/moist advection may support storm
persistence and redevelopment/intensification later today across
central Texas into parts of east Texas and possibly Louisiana within
a moderately unstable environment.
In the wake of the mid-level wave, mid-level height rises/subsidence
are otherwise anticipated coincident with the dryline from central
Kansas south-southwestward across western Oklahoma and
west/southwest Texas. The extent and likelihood of storm development
later today is highly uncertain, but if/where storms do form, the
environment would generally be supportive of supercells and related
hazards given ample buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear.
...Minnesota/Wisconsin...
A surface low over the northern Plains will migrate eastward along
the U.S./Canadian border through the day, reaching northern
Minnesota by around peak heating. A narrow tongue of returning
moisture may support a corridor of sufficient ascent and buoyancy
for deep convection. A few surface-based supercells could occur
along the frontal zone where dewpoints may reach into the mid/upper
50s F. While this potential appears low/uncertain per latest
guidance, some tornado threat could materialize along the front.
Hail/wind will otherwise be possible regionally on an isolated
basis.
...Northern Rockies...
Ahead of an approaching upper wave, mid-level moisture will support
another day of fairly modest surface-based buoyancy with persistent
30-40 knot flow within the CAPE-bearing layer. Combined with
somewhat deep boundary-layer mixing, this may support strong to
severe downburst winds with the more robust convective cells, mainly
this afternoon through early evening.
..Guyer/Broyles.. 04/12/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Valid 121300Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today into
evening mainly across parts of Texas and perhaps other nearby parts
of the southern Plains. More isolated severe storms may occur across
portions of the Upper Great Lakes and northern Rockies.
...Texas/Southern Plains...
A rather complex scenario exists early today attributable to several
factors including an MCS that de-intensified/decayed generally near
I-35 in Texas overnight, with residual cloud cover and outflow
impacts. Potentially focused in vicinity of outflow, the passing
mid-level wave and persistent warm/moist advection may support storm
persistence and redevelopment/intensification later today across
central Texas into parts of east Texas and possibly Louisiana within
a moderately unstable environment.
In the wake of the mid-level wave, mid-level height rises/subsidence
are otherwise anticipated coincident with the dryline from central
Kansas south-southwestward across western Oklahoma and
west/southwest Texas. The extent and likelihood of storm development
later today is highly uncertain, but if/where storms do form, the
environment would generally be supportive of supercells and related
hazards given ample buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear.
...Minnesota/Wisconsin...
A surface low over the northern Plains will migrate eastward along
the U.S./Canadian border through the day, reaching northern
Minnesota by around peak heating. A narrow tongue of returning
moisture may support a corridor of sufficient ascent and buoyancy
for deep convection. A few surface-based supercells could occur
along the frontal zone where dewpoints may reach into the mid/upper
50s F. While this potential appears low/uncertain per latest
guidance, some tornado threat could materialize along the front.
Hail/wind will otherwise be possible regionally on an isolated
basis.
...Northern Rockies...
Ahead of an approaching upper wave, mid-level moisture will support
another day of fairly modest surface-based buoyancy with persistent
30-40 knot flow within the CAPE-bearing layer. Combined with
somewhat deep boundary-layer mixing, this may support strong to
severe downburst winds with the more robust convective cells, mainly
this afternoon through early evening.
..Guyer/Broyles.. 04/12/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Valid 121300Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today into
evening mainly across parts of Texas and perhaps other nearby parts
of the southern Plains. More isolated severe storms may occur across
portions of the Upper Great Lakes and northern Rockies.
...Texas/Southern Plains...
A rather complex scenario exists early today attributable to several
factors including an MCS that de-intensified/decayed generally near
I-35 in Texas overnight, with residual cloud cover and outflow
impacts. Potentially focused in vicinity of outflow, the passing
mid-level wave and persistent warm/moist advection may support storm
persistence and redevelopment/intensification later today across
central Texas into parts of east Texas and possibly Louisiana within
a moderately unstable environment.
In the wake of the mid-level wave, mid-level height rises/subsidence
are otherwise anticipated coincident with the dryline from central
Kansas south-southwestward across western Oklahoma and
west/southwest Texas. The extent and likelihood of storm development
later today is highly uncertain, but if/where storms do form, the
environment would generally be supportive of supercells and related
hazards given ample buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear.
...Minnesota/Wisconsin...
A surface low over the northern Plains will migrate eastward along
the U.S./Canadian border through the day, reaching northern
Minnesota by around peak heating. A narrow tongue of returning
moisture may support a corridor of sufficient ascent and buoyancy
for deep convection. A few surface-based supercells could occur
along the frontal zone where dewpoints may reach into the mid/upper
50s F. While this potential appears low/uncertain per latest
guidance, some tornado threat could materialize along the front.
Hail/wind will otherwise be possible regionally on an isolated
basis.
...Northern Rockies...
Ahead of an approaching upper wave, mid-level moisture will support
another day of fairly modest surface-based buoyancy with persistent
30-40 knot flow within the CAPE-bearing layer. Combined with
somewhat deep boundary-layer mixing, this may support strong to
severe downburst winds with the more robust convective cells, mainly
this afternoon through early evening.
..Guyer/Broyles.. 04/12/2026
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Wed - Southern Plains to southern Wisconsin...
An upper trough will be oriented over the central/southern High
Plains Wednesday morning. This feature will shift east to the
Mississippi River by Thursday morning. As this occurs, strong
deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a moist and unstable
airmass from TX toward the Great Lakes. Some convection may be
ongoing Wednesday morning, resulting in some uncertainty regarding
airmass recovery and convective evolution during the
afternoon/evening. However, persistent southerly low-level flow
ahead of a dryline and continued warm advection should support areas
of airmass recovery. A mix of supercells and linear segments will be
possible, posing an all-hazards severe risk.
...Day 5/Thu...
Severe potential should be lower on Thursday as the upper trough and
weakens at it shifts east across the Ohio Valley. Widespread showers
and thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley into the TN Valley, with modest instability and
limited heating tempering severe potential.
...Day 6/Fri - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest...
Medium range guidance has been fairly consistent the past several
forecast cycles in bringing a large-scale upper eastward from the
Rockies into the Plains Friday/Friday night. This should result in
surface cyclogenesis across portions of the Upper Midwest with a
trailing cold front extending into the southern Plains. Ahead of the
front, a seasonally moist/unstable airmass will be in place beneath
strengthening southwesterly deep-layer flow. This should support a
severe risk ahead of the front.
...Days 7-8/Sat-Sun...
The upper trough will continue east over the eastern U.S. on
Saturday and Sunday. Stronger ascent will shift northeast into
Canada. Deep-layer flow parallel to the surface front and a
narrowing warm sector should limit severe potential.
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Wed - Southern Plains to southern Wisconsin...
An upper trough will be oriented over the central/southern High
Plains Wednesday morning. This feature will shift east to the
Mississippi River by Thursday morning. As this occurs, strong
deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a moist and unstable
airmass from TX toward the Great Lakes. Some convection may be
ongoing Wednesday morning, resulting in some uncertainty regarding
airmass recovery and convective evolution during the
afternoon/evening. However, persistent southerly low-level flow
ahead of a dryline and continued warm advection should support areas
of airmass recovery. A mix of supercells and linear segments will be
possible, posing an all-hazards severe risk.
...Day 5/Thu...
Severe potential should be lower on Thursday as the upper trough and
weakens at it shifts east across the Ohio Valley. Widespread showers
and thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley into the TN Valley, with modest instability and
limited heating tempering severe potential.
...Day 6/Fri - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest...
Medium range guidance has been fairly consistent the past several
forecast cycles in bringing a large-scale upper eastward from the
Rockies into the Plains Friday/Friday night. This should result in
surface cyclogenesis across portions of the Upper Midwest with a
trailing cold front extending into the southern Plains. Ahead of the
front, a seasonally moist/unstable airmass will be in place beneath
strengthening southwesterly deep-layer flow. This should support a
severe risk ahead of the front.
...Days 7-8/Sat-Sun...
The upper trough will continue east over the eastern U.S. on
Saturday and Sunday. Stronger ascent will shift northeast into
Canada. Deep-layer flow parallel to the surface front and a
narrowing warm sector should limit severe potential.
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Wed - Southern Plains to southern Wisconsin...
An upper trough will be oriented over the central/southern High
Plains Wednesday morning. This feature will shift east to the
Mississippi River by Thursday morning. As this occurs, strong
deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a moist and unstable
airmass from TX toward the Great Lakes. Some convection may be
ongoing Wednesday morning, resulting in some uncertainty regarding
airmass recovery and convective evolution during the
afternoon/evening. However, persistent southerly low-level flow
ahead of a dryline and continued warm advection should support areas
of airmass recovery. A mix of supercells and linear segments will be
possible, posing an all-hazards severe risk.
...Day 5/Thu...
Severe potential should be lower on Thursday as the upper trough and
weakens at it shifts east across the Ohio Valley. Widespread showers
and thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley into the TN Valley, with modest instability and
limited heating tempering severe potential.
...Day 6/Fri - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest...
Medium range guidance has been fairly consistent the past several
forecast cycles in bringing a large-scale upper eastward from the
Rockies into the Plains Friday/Friday night. This should result in
surface cyclogenesis across portions of the Upper Midwest with a
trailing cold front extending into the southern Plains. Ahead of the
front, a seasonally moist/unstable airmass will be in place beneath
strengthening southwesterly deep-layer flow. This should support a
severe risk ahead of the front.
...Days 7-8/Sat-Sun...
The upper trough will continue east over the eastern U.S. on
Saturday and Sunday. Stronger ascent will shift northeast into
Canada. Deep-layer flow parallel to the surface front and a
narrowing warm sector should limit severe potential.
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Wed - Southern Plains to southern Wisconsin...
An upper trough will be oriented over the central/southern High
Plains Wednesday morning. This feature will shift east to the
Mississippi River by Thursday morning. As this occurs, strong
deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a moist and unstable
airmass from TX toward the Great Lakes. Some convection may be
ongoing Wednesday morning, resulting in some uncertainty regarding
airmass recovery and convective evolution during the
afternoon/evening. However, persistent southerly low-level flow
ahead of a dryline and continued warm advection should support areas
of airmass recovery. A mix of supercells and linear segments will be
possible, posing an all-hazards severe risk.
...Day 5/Thu...
Severe potential should be lower on Thursday as the upper trough and
weakens at it shifts east across the Ohio Valley. Widespread showers
and thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley into the TN Valley, with modest instability and
limited heating tempering severe potential.
...Day 6/Fri - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest...
Medium range guidance has been fairly consistent the past several
forecast cycles in bringing a large-scale upper eastward from the
Rockies into the Plains Friday/Friday night. This should result in
surface cyclogenesis across portions of the Upper Midwest with a
trailing cold front extending into the southern Plains. Ahead of the
front, a seasonally moist/unstable airmass will be in place beneath
strengthening southwesterly deep-layer flow. This should support a
severe risk ahead of the front.
...Days 7-8/Sat-Sun...
The upper trough will continue east over the eastern U.S. on
Saturday and Sunday. Stronger ascent will shift northeast into
Canada. Deep-layer flow parallel to the surface front and a
narrowing warm sector should limit severe potential.
Read more
MD 0386 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 101... FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0386
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Areas affected...Central and North Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 101...
Valid 120714Z - 120915Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 101
continues.
SUMMARY...An isolated threat for severe wind gusts and potential for
a tornado or two will continue over the next few hours across parts
of central and north Texas.
DISCUSSION...A line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing across
northern sections of the Texas Hill Country. Ahead of the line, a
moist airmass is in place with surface dewpoint in the mid 60s F.
The RAP has weak instability over this moist airmass, with MLCAPE
generally around 500 J/kg. The line is moving towards an axis of
strong low-level flow, in which short-term model forecasts continue
to strengthen late tonight into early this morning. In response,
surface dewpoints will gradually rise, as a 50 knot speed max at 850
mb develops ahead of the ongoing line of storms. This should help
maintain a severe threat over the next few hours. Isolated severe
wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will be possible, mainly
with rotating elements embedded in the line.
..Broyles.. 04/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 32309732 31659725 30919731 30389754 30299782 30309819
30389833 30529842 30719837 31169828 31639820 32399829
32769834 33109825 33229798 33159761 32629740 32309732
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
Read more
WW 0101 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 101
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SW JCT TO
60 ENE JCT TO 55 SE BWD TO 25 NW SEP TO 40 S SPS.
..BROYLES..04/12/26
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 101
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-027-031-035-053-099-143-145-171-193-209-221-237-259-265-
281-299-309-331-363-367-425-453-491-120840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA BELL BLANCO
BOSQUE BURNET CORYELL
ERATH FALLS GILLESPIE
HAMILTON HAYS HOOD
JACK KENDALL KERR
LAMPASAS LLANO MCLENNAN
MILAM PALO PINTO PARKER
SOMERVELL TRAVIS WILLIAMSON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
