Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts are possible across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon and evening. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Rockies, central Plains, upper Mississippi Valley, and portions of the California coast. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery reveals two shortwave troughs, one moving through the Great Basin and the other moving into central Mexico, progressing through the southwesterly flow aloft between the subtropical ridging that extends through the Southeast states and a deep upper low off the central West Coast. Steep mid-level lapse rates precede the northern shortwave (i.e. from the northern/central Rockies northeastward) and low-level moisture continues to advect northward across the southern and central Plains. Both of these factors will increase buoyancy ahead of these two shortwaves, which are expected to become increasingly phased as they progress northeastward throughout the day. This evolution will support a large area of thunderstorms from the northern Rockies through the southern Plains this afternoon/evening. Environmental conditions support strong to isolated severe thunderstorms across these areas, with a relatively higher chance of severe from the southern High Plains into central TX and along the eastern NE/KS border vicinity. Additionally, the West Coast upper low is forecast to progress east-southeastward into southern OR and northern/central CA this evening and overnight, supporting the potential for thunderstorms, a few of which could be strong. ...Southern High Plains into Central Texas... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across the southern High Plains as a shortwave trough lifts out of central Mexico and interacts with the moist and modestly buoyant airmass in places over the region. A few initially discrete storms are possible, and adequate deep-layer wind shear around 35 kt could result in a few instances of severe hail. However, weak capping and strong ascent should promote increasing thunderstorm coverage, resulting in a transition to a more clustered storm mode. Eventual evolution into one or more line segments is possible, particularly over southwest TX as low-level flow nocturnally strengthens and low-level moisture increases. As this transition occurs, damaging gust potential will become the predominant hazard. The strengthening low-level flow will also lengthen low-level hodograph, supporting the potential for an embedded circulation or two, particularly along the southern extent of whatever line develops. ...Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Recent surface analysis places a warm front across central KS. This warm front is forecast to progress northward throughout the day amid persistent southerly flow and resulting moderate/strong low-level moisture advection. Given the ongoing cloud cover across the region, as well as the showers and thunderstorms over northwest MO, there is some uncertainty to how this surface boundary will evolve. General expectation is for this front to extend from the central NE vicinity into north-central MO by this evening. Large, looping low-level hodographs are anticipated in the vicinity of this warm front. These profiles, along with dewpoints in the low/mid 60s and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, result in an environment that is conditionally favorable for supercells. However, some capping will likely linger across the region and large-scale forcing will be negligible, casting doubt to whether convective initiation will be realized. This uncertainty is matched by the CAM guidance, none of which establishes meaningful convection during the afternoon and evening. All that to say, if an updraft does mature in this environment, all severe hazards are possible, including a tornado. More certain (but less intense) thunderstorm potential is anticipated as low-level warm air advection becomes increasingly focused from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley this evening and overnight. Moderate elevated buoyancy and deep-layer shear support the potential for a few stronger updrafts capable of hail as thunderstorms expand northeastward from IA into the Upper Midwest. ...Northern/Central Rockies... Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated across the northern and central Rockies, ahead of a shortwave trough progressing northeastward into the region. Deep boundary-layer mixing ahead of this system coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will result in an environment that supports the potential for strong to severe gusts across much of the region. ...Northern/Central California Coast... A frontal band, associated with an upper low moving over the northern California coast tonight, is expected to progress southeastward through the central CA coastal vicinity this evening. Thermodynamic profiles appear marginally supportive of isolated convection deep enough to produce lightning. Winds within the lowest 1-2 km AGL should increase to around 40 kt as the wave moves onshore, which will contribute to the potential for convective downdrafts to produce a few locally damaging wind gusts. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 04/11/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts are possible across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon and evening. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Rockies, central Plains, upper Mississippi Valley, and portions of the California coast. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery reveals two shortwave troughs, one moving through the Great Basin and the other moving into central Mexico, progressing through the southwesterly flow aloft between the subtropical ridging that extends through the Southeast states and a deep upper low off the central West Coast. Steep mid-level lapse rates precede the northern shortwave (i.e. from the northern/central Rockies northeastward) and low-level moisture continues to advect northward across the southern and central Plains. Both of these factors will increase buoyancy ahead of these two shortwaves, which are expected to become increasingly phased as they progress northeastward throughout the day. This evolution will support a large area of thunderstorms from the northern Rockies through the southern Plains this afternoon/evening. Environmental conditions support strong to isolated severe thunderstorms across these areas, with a relatively higher chance of severe from the southern High Plains into central TX and along the eastern NE/KS border vicinity. Additionally, the West Coast upper low is forecast to progress east-southeastward into southern OR and northern/central CA this evening and overnight, supporting the potential for thunderstorms, a few of which could be strong. ...Southern High Plains into Central Texas... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across the southern High Plains as a shortwave trough lifts out of central Mexico and interacts with the moist and modestly buoyant airmass in places over the region. A few initially discrete storms are possible, and adequate deep-layer wind shear around 35 kt could result in a few instances of severe hail. However, weak capping and strong ascent should promote increasing thunderstorm coverage, resulting in a transition to a more clustered storm mode. Eventual evolution into one or more line segments is possible, particularly over southwest TX as low-level flow nocturnally strengthens and low-level moisture increases. As this transition occurs, damaging gust potential will become the predominant hazard. The strengthening low-level flow will also lengthen low-level hodograph, supporting the potential for an embedded circulation or two, particularly along the southern extent of whatever line develops. ...Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Recent surface analysis places a warm front across central KS. This warm front is forecast to progress northward throughout the day amid persistent southerly flow and resulting moderate/strong low-level moisture advection. Given the ongoing cloud cover across the region, as well as the showers and thunderstorms over northwest MO, there is some uncertainty to how this surface boundary will evolve. General expectation is for this front to extend from the central NE vicinity into north-central MO by this evening. Large, looping low-level hodographs are anticipated in the vicinity of this warm front. These profiles, along with dewpoints in the low/mid 60s and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, result in an environment that is conditionally favorable for supercells. However, some capping will likely linger across the region and large-scale forcing will be negligible, casting doubt to whether convective initiation will be realized. This uncertainty is matched by the CAM guidance, none of which establishes meaningful convection during the afternoon and evening. All that to say, if an updraft does mature in this environment, all severe hazards are possible, including a tornado. More certain (but less intense) thunderstorm potential is anticipated as low-level warm air advection becomes increasingly focused from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley this evening and overnight. Moderate elevated buoyancy and deep-layer shear support the potential for a few stronger updrafts capable of hail as thunderstorms expand northeastward from IA into the Upper Midwest. ...Northern/Central Rockies... Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated across the northern and central Rockies, ahead of a shortwave trough progressing northeastward into the region. Deep boundary-layer mixing ahead of this system coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will result in an environment that supports the potential for strong to severe gusts across much of the region. ...Northern/Central California Coast... A frontal band, associated with an upper low moving over the northern California coast tonight, is expected to progress southeastward through the central CA coastal vicinity this evening. Thermodynamic profiles appear marginally supportive of isolated convection deep enough to produce lightning. Winds within the lowest 1-2 km AGL should increase to around 40 kt as the wave moves onshore, which will contribute to the potential for convective downdrafts to produce a few locally damaging wind gusts. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 04/11/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts are possible across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon and evening. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Rockies, central Plains, upper Mississippi Valley, and portions of the California coast. ...Southern High Plains... Thunderstorm development is likely by mid/late-afternoon across southwest Texas and eastern New Mexico as increase forcing for ascent overspreads modest but increasing low-level moisture. Initially discrete cells are likely and will pose a threat for large hail given adequate deep-layer wind shear /generally 30-40 kt/. However, weak capping and strong ascent should promote upscale growth by early evening into several linear clusters. As this transition occurs, strong to severe wind gust potential will increase and become the predominant hazard, though an embedded circulation or two may occur with a tornado possible. ...Central Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley... Low-level warm air advection will likely become increasingly focused through the day and into the overnight hours from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. 850 mb winds are forecast to steadily strengthen to 40-60 kt by this evening and will support moistening in the lowest 1-2 km under a plume of 7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates. Forecast soundings suggest that this environment will be weakly capped and should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon hours across the central Plains before spreading/re-developing northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley late tonight. While deep-layer wind shear will not be overly strong (around 30 kt), it should be sufficient for a few organized cells capable of severe hail. A more conditional supercell potential may materialize by mid/late afternoon through early evening across portions of the middle/lower Missouri Valley near/just south of the northward-shifting surface warm front, which may augmented by residual cloud cover/weakening storms across northeast Kansas/far southeast Nebraska in the pre-dawn hours. Forecast soundings from this region suggest a weakly capped, but moderately buoyant airmass, with notably strong low-level/deep-layer wind profiles that would conditionally support supercells including some tornado risk. ...Central/northern Rockies... A northeast-ejecting shortwave trough, along with steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture, will likely support additional thunderstorms across the central to northern Rockies this afternoon as diurnal heating occurs. A combination of modest deep-layer wind shear and well-mixed boundary layers will support potential for strong to severe downburst winds. ...Northern/central California Coast... A progressive upper wave will continue eastward and reach the northern California coast tonight. As this occurs, ascent within the left-exit region of an attendant upper jet, coupled with cool mid-level temperatures near the center of the upper low, will support isolated thunderstorms across northern/central California. Winds within the lowest 1-2 km AGL should increase to around 40 kt as the wave moves onshore, which will contribute to the potential for convective downdrafts to produce a few locally damaging wind gusts. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 04/11/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts are possible across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon and evening. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Rockies, central Plains, upper Mississippi Valley, and portions of the California coast. ...Southern High Plains... Thunderstorm development is likely by mid/late-afternoon across southwest Texas and eastern New Mexico as increase forcing for ascent overspreads modest but increasing low-level moisture. Initially discrete cells are likely and will pose a threat for large hail given adequate deep-layer wind shear /generally 30-40 kt/. However, weak capping and strong ascent should promote upscale growth by early evening into several linear clusters. As this transition occurs, strong to severe wind gust potential will increase and become the predominant hazard, though an embedded circulation or two may occur with a tornado possible. ...Central Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley... Low-level warm air advection will likely become increasingly focused through the day and into the overnight hours from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. 850 mb winds are forecast to steadily strengthen to 40-60 kt by this evening and will support moistening in the lowest 1-2 km under a plume of 7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates. Forecast soundings suggest that this environment will be weakly capped and should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon hours across the central Plains before spreading/re-developing northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley late tonight. While deep-layer wind shear will not be overly strong (around 30 kt), it should be sufficient for a few organized cells capable of severe hail. A more conditional supercell potential may materialize by mid/late afternoon through early evening across portions of the middle/lower Missouri Valley near/just south of the northward-shifting surface warm front, which may augmented by residual cloud cover/weakening storms across northeast Kansas/far southeast Nebraska in the pre-dawn hours. Forecast soundings from this region suggest a weakly capped, but moderately buoyant airmass, with notably strong low-level/deep-layer wind profiles that would conditionally support supercells including some tornado risk. ...Central/northern Rockies... A northeast-ejecting shortwave trough, along with steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture, will likely support additional thunderstorms across the central to northern Rockies this afternoon as diurnal heating occurs. A combination of modest deep-layer wind shear and well-mixed boundary layers will support potential for strong to severe downburst winds. ...Northern/central California Coast... A progressive upper wave will continue eastward and reach the northern California coast tonight. As this occurs, ascent within the left-exit region of an attendant upper jet, coupled with cool mid-level temperatures near the center of the upper low, will support isolated thunderstorms across northern/central California. Winds within the lowest 1-2 km AGL should increase to around 40 kt as the wave moves onshore, which will contribute to the potential for convective downdrafts to produce a few locally damaging wind gusts. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 04/11/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Tue -- Southern Plains to Great Lakes... A shortwave upper trough embedded within the larger-scale western U.S. trough will eject across portions of the Plains to the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Tue. As this occurs, a surface low will deep over the central Plains and lift northeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Some uncertainty remains regarding the exact evolution of this system, mainly due to differences in medium range guidance with respect to surface low placement and timing of the upper shortwave trough. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass is expected ahead of the low and to the east of a Plains dryline and south of a Great Lakes warm front. Thunderstorm development should be more widespread along these boundaries compared to prior days given stronger large-scale ascent will overspread the central U.S., and height falls will result in a more robust low-level jet response. As a result, an all-hazards severe event is expected from the southern Plains into portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday/Tuesday night. ...Day 5/Wed -- Southern Plains to the Midwest... Medium range guidance varies heading into Wednesday with the operational GFS much more progressive and lower amplitude than the operational ECMWF. The AIGFS is much more in-line with the ECMWF/AIFS, so this period is weighted more toward those solutions. It appears the upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject across the Plains to the Mid-MS Valley during this time. A moist and unstable airmass will reside across the region ahead of dryline across western OK into central TX and a sagging cold front across the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley. Areas of precipitation could be ongoing at the beginning of the period and does result in some uncertainty regarding where stronger destabilization will occur. Nevertheless, an overall favorable thermodynamic/kinematic parameter space will overlap this corridor and isolated to scattered severe storms appear likely. ...Days 6-8/Thu-Sat... Medium range guidance depicts another trough developing across the West on Day 6/Thu and quickly progressing east through the end of the period. This could support a continued severe risk across parts of the southern Plains into the Midwest in the Thursday or Friday time frame. However, run to run consistency toward the end of the forecast period has not been very good. Additionally, multiple rounds of storms across the same areas earlier in the period may impact later severe potential. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may be needed in later outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Tue -- Southern Plains to Great Lakes... A shortwave upper trough embedded within the larger-scale western U.S. trough will eject across portions of the Plains to the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Tue. As this occurs, a surface low will deep over the central Plains and lift northeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Some uncertainty remains regarding the exact evolution of this system, mainly due to differences in medium range guidance with respect to surface low placement and timing of the upper shortwave trough. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass is expected ahead of the low and to the east of a Plains dryline and south of a Great Lakes warm front. Thunderstorm development should be more widespread along these boundaries compared to prior days given stronger large-scale ascent will overspread the central U.S., and height falls will result in a more robust low-level jet response. As a result, an all-hazards severe event is expected from the southern Plains into portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday/Tuesday night. ...Day 5/Wed -- Southern Plains to the Midwest... Medium range guidance varies heading into Wednesday with the operational GFS much more progressive and lower amplitude than the operational ECMWF. The AIGFS is much more in-line with the ECMWF/AIFS, so this period is weighted more toward those solutions. It appears the upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject across the Plains to the Mid-MS Valley during this time. A moist and unstable airmass will reside across the region ahead of dryline across western OK into central TX and a sagging cold front across the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley. Areas of precipitation could be ongoing at the beginning of the period and does result in some uncertainty regarding where stronger destabilization will occur. Nevertheless, an overall favorable thermodynamic/kinematic parameter space will overlap this corridor and isolated to scattered severe storms appear likely. ...Days 6-8/Thu-Sat... Medium range guidance depicts another trough developing across the West on Day 6/Thu and quickly progressing east through the end of the period. This could support a continued severe risk across parts of the southern Plains into the Midwest in the Thursday or Friday time frame. However, run to run consistency toward the end of the forecast period has not been very good. Additionally, multiple rounds of storms across the same areas earlier in the period may impact later severe potential. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may be needed in later outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Tue -- Southern Plains to Great Lakes... A shortwave upper trough embedded within the larger-scale western U.S. trough will eject across portions of the Plains to the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Tue. As this occurs, a surface low will deep over the central Plains and lift northeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Some uncertainty remains regarding the exact evolution of this system, mainly due to differences in medium range guidance with respect to surface low placement and timing of the upper shortwave trough. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass is expected ahead of the low and to the east of a Plains dryline and south of a Great Lakes warm front. Thunderstorm development should be more widespread along these boundaries compared to prior days given stronger large-scale ascent will overspread the central U.S., and height falls will result in a more robust low-level jet response. As a result, an all-hazards severe event is expected from the southern Plains into portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday/Tuesday night. ...Day 5/Wed -- Southern Plains to the Midwest... Medium range guidance varies heading into Wednesday with the operational GFS much more progressive and lower amplitude than the operational ECMWF. The AIGFS is much more in-line with the ECMWF/AIFS, so this period is weighted more toward those solutions. It appears the upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject across the Plains to the Mid-MS Valley during this time. A moist and unstable airmass will reside across the region ahead of dryline across western OK into central TX and a sagging cold front across the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley. Areas of precipitation could be ongoing at the beginning of the period and does result in some uncertainty regarding where stronger destabilization will occur. Nevertheless, an overall favorable thermodynamic/kinematic parameter space will overlap this corridor and isolated to scattered severe storms appear likely. ...Days 6-8/Thu-Sat... Medium range guidance depicts another trough developing across the West on Day 6/Thu and quickly progressing east through the end of the period. This could support a continued severe risk across parts of the southern Plains into the Midwest in the Thursday or Friday time frame. However, run to run consistency toward the end of the forecast period has not been very good. Additionally, multiple rounds of storms across the same areas earlier in the period may impact later severe potential. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may be needed in later outlooks. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region, and across portions of the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough from the northern Rockies to southern CA will pivot east on Monday, overspreading the Four Corners vicinity by early Tuesday. Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough will migrate east across the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a low over the Mid-MO Valley will shift east along a frontal wave across MN/WI. Persistent southwesterly deep-layer flow over the Rockies into the Plains will maintain surface lee troughing across the Plains. Meanwhile, south/southwesterly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints from the southern Plains toward Lake Michigan. ...Upper Midwest... Some spread among various medium-range guidance in the placement/track of the surface low leads to some uncertainty regarding the northward extent of severe potential on Monday. Nevertheless, a moist airmass will reside ahead of the low in the vicinity of a surface warm front. Storm coverage is uncertain, partly due to possibly capping. However, persistent moderate southwesterly flow atop the front as the low begins to shift east should provide focus for thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. Steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated hodographs suggest large hail will be possible both within the warm sector and with any elevated storms on the cool side of the boundary. Some guidance suggests storms could consolidate into a bow or linear segment, which would increase damaging wind potential. However, this scenario is uncertain. Some severe risk will persist eastward along the warm front into MI overnight. These elevated storms will mainly pose a hail risk. ...Central/Southern Plains... Capping is likely to suppress convection along a dryline extending across eastern KS into western OK/TX. The exception may be across portions of western TX into southwest OK where modest height falls could occur toward evening as the western upper trough beings to slowly shift east toward the southern Rockies. Mid 60s F dewpoints and steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization. Strong heating along and west of the dryline will support mixing and an increasing southerly low-level jet by 00z could be sufficient for isolated storm development. Supercell wind profiles will support mainly a risk of large hail, though locally damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible if storms develop. ..Leitman.. 04/11/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region, and across portions of the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough from the northern Rockies to southern CA will pivot east on Monday, overspreading the Four Corners vicinity by early Tuesday. Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough will migrate east across the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a low over the Mid-MO Valley will shift east along a frontal wave across MN/WI. Persistent southwesterly deep-layer flow over the Rockies into the Plains will maintain surface lee troughing across the Plains. Meanwhile, south/southwesterly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints from the southern Plains toward Lake Michigan. ...Upper Midwest... Some spread among various medium-range guidance in the placement/track of the surface low leads to some uncertainty regarding the northward extent of severe potential on Monday. Nevertheless, a moist airmass will reside ahead of the low in the vicinity of a surface warm front. Storm coverage is uncertain, partly due to possibly capping. However, persistent moderate southwesterly flow atop the front as the low begins to shift east should provide focus for thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. Steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated hodographs suggest large hail will be possible both within the warm sector and with any elevated storms on the cool side of the boundary. Some guidance suggests storms could consolidate into a bow or linear segment, which would increase damaging wind potential. However, this scenario is uncertain. Some severe risk will persist eastward along the warm front into MI overnight. These elevated storms will mainly pose a hail risk. ...Central/Southern Plains... Capping is likely to suppress convection along a dryline extending across eastern KS into western OK/TX. The exception may be across portions of western TX into southwest OK where modest height falls could occur toward evening as the western upper trough beings to slowly shift east toward the southern Rockies. Mid 60s F dewpoints and steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization. Strong heating along and west of the dryline will support mixing and an increasing southerly low-level jet by 00z could be sufficient for isolated storm development. Supercell wind profiles will support mainly a risk of large hail, though locally damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible if storms develop. ..Leitman.. 04/11/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level closed low is forecast to progress from the northern California coast into the Intermountain West, with broad west-southwesterly flow overspreading the Four Corners into the Great Plains on Sunday. Widespread dry and breezy conditions are expected, resulting in several areas of Elevated fire-weather highlights. ...Four Corners/Central High Plains... While represented by separate Elevated highlights, much of the area from southern Arizona/New Mexico into eastern Colorado/Wyoming and portions of western/central Nebraska and southern South Dakota will experience widespread dry and breezy conditions. Though fuels across portions of Arizona and New Mexico are more marginally receptive to ignition and spread, winds of 15-20 MPH and relative humidity as low as 10% will support at least Elevated wildfire concerns. Further east into the Central High Plains, fuels are largely at or exceeding the 98th annual ERC percentiles with winds forecast at 15-20 MPH and relative humidity at 10-15%. Locally Critical conditions may occur across areas just east of the Front Range of the Rockies, where topography results in an enhancement of the surface winds, or perhaps where a stronger downslope component of the winds develop. However, uncertainty in the duration and magnitude of Critical winds precludes highlights at this time. While meteorological conditions will reach Elevated status in the gap between these areas, recent wetting rainfall and less than receptive fuels will lessen the overall fire-weather concerns between the highlights. ...Ohio River Valley... While forecast relative humidity values are more variable, ranging from 25-35%, much of the lower Ohio River Valley is experiencing widespread moderate to severe drought. Fuels at or exceeding the 98th annual percentile for ERCs and southerly surface winds around 15 MPH will support Elevated fire-weather concerns amidst deeply mixed and dry boundary layer profiles. While instances of light to moderate precipitation may occur the prior afternoon/evening, this will do little to alleviate the overall fire-weather concerns. ..Halbert.. 04/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level closed low is forecast to progress from the northern California coast into the Intermountain West, with broad west-southwesterly flow overspreading the Four Corners into the Great Plains on Sunday. Widespread dry and breezy conditions are expected, resulting in several areas of Elevated fire-weather highlights. ...Four Corners/Central High Plains... While represented by separate Elevated highlights, much of the area from southern Arizona/New Mexico into eastern Colorado/Wyoming and portions of western/central Nebraska and southern South Dakota will experience widespread dry and breezy conditions. Though fuels across portions of Arizona and New Mexico are more marginally receptive to ignition and spread, winds of 15-20 MPH and relative humidity as low as 10% will support at least Elevated wildfire concerns. Further east into the Central High Plains, fuels are largely at or exceeding the 98th annual ERC percentiles with winds forecast at 15-20 MPH and relative humidity at 10-15%. Locally Critical conditions may occur across areas just east of the Front Range of the Rockies, where topography results in an enhancement of the surface winds, or perhaps where a stronger downslope component of the winds develop. However, uncertainty in the duration and magnitude of Critical winds precludes highlights at this time. While meteorological conditions will reach Elevated status in the gap between these areas, recent wetting rainfall and less than receptive fuels will lessen the overall fire-weather concerns between the highlights. ...Ohio River Valley... While forecast relative humidity values are more variable, ranging from 25-35%, much of the lower Ohio River Valley is experiencing widespread moderate to severe drought. Fuels at or exceeding the 98th annual percentile for ERCs and southerly surface winds around 15 MPH will support Elevated fire-weather concerns amidst deeply mixed and dry boundary layer profiles. While instances of light to moderate precipitation may occur the prior afternoon/evening, this will do little to alleviate the overall fire-weather concerns. ..Halbert.. 04/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level toughing over the Western U.S. with an embedded shortwave will be responsible for both isolated dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions across portions of eastern Wyoming into the Central High Plains. ...Eastern Wyoming into the Central High Plains... Broad southwesterly flow and a weak embedded jet streak associated with a mid-level shortwave trough will overspread the Rockies, resulting in lee troughing and a developing/deepening surface low over eastern Montana. Dry and breezy boundary layer conditions will overspread receptive fuels across eastern Wyoming into far western South Dakota/Nebraska and portions of far northern Colorado, with surface winds of 15-20 MPH and relative humidity of 15-20%. Dry thunderstorm potential will overlap these Elevated fire-weather concerns owing to deep, dry, and well-mixed boundary layer profiles resulting in limited precipitation efficiency amidst an otherwise convectively unstable regime. ..Halbert.. 04/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level toughing over the Western U.S. with an embedded shortwave will be responsible for both isolated dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions across portions of eastern Wyoming into the Central High Plains. ...Eastern Wyoming into the Central High Plains... Broad southwesterly flow and a weak embedded jet streak associated with a mid-level shortwave trough will overspread the Rockies, resulting in lee troughing and a developing/deepening surface low over eastern Montana. Dry and breezy boundary layer conditions will overspread receptive fuels across eastern Wyoming into far western South Dakota/Nebraska and portions of far northern Colorado, with surface winds of 15-20 MPH and relative humidity of 15-20%. Dry thunderstorm potential will overlap these Elevated fire-weather concerns owing to deep, dry, and well-mixed boundary layer profiles resulting in limited precipitation efficiency amidst an otherwise convectively unstable regime. ..Halbert.. 04/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will slowly pivot east over the western U.S. on Sunday while upper riding envelopes the East. A couple of shortwave impulses will migrate northeast from the Plains to the Upper Midwest/MS Valley vicinity. Persistent midlevel southwesterly flow across the central portions will maintain lee troughing over the Plains. Meanwhile, southerly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northward from TX to WI ahead of a surface trough/dryline oriented across eastern NE into central KS, arcing south/southwest into northwest OK and western TX. A surface low is forecast to move across the Upper Midwest, where a boundary will be draped across southern MN into WI. ...Central/Southern Plains... Numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing Sunday morning across OK/TX, with more isolated activity possible northward into the Mid-MO Valley. This convection will have implications on airmass recovery and thunderstorm development along the dryline during the afternoon/evening. Some isolated wind/hail risk could accompany this early activity as clusters and/or line segments move across OK/TX during the morning. In the wake of this morning activity, persistent southwesterly mid/upper flow will maintain a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates and mixing near the dryline should erode cloud cover over portions of KS/OK/western TX. Large-scale ascent will remain nebulous, with a lack of height falls precluding large-scale support for thunderstorm development. Nevertheless, modest confluence along the dryline is forecast. Mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep lapse rates will support up to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Furthermore, supercell wind profiles are apparent in forecast soundings. This environment will conditionally support supercells along the dryline by late afternoon into the evening. However, given a lack of forcing, storm coverage is uncertain. If storms can develop along the dryline, at least a narrow corridor of large to very large hail potential will exist in addition to damaging winds and a tornado or two. Some guidance suggests morning convection could intensify or redevelop across portions of north/central TX toward the ArkLaTex, but this scenario remains very uncertain. ...South Texas/Rio Grande vicinity... A conditional severe risk is apparent during the evening/nighttime hours. A moderately unstable airmass will be in place, though deep-layer flow will be somewhat weaker compared to further north. Nevertheless, some guidance suggests supercells will develop across Mexico and could approach/cross the Rio Grande during the evening. If this occurs, an initial risk for large hail and damaging gusts will exist. With time, some potential for clustering could occur and bring a continued risk for strong winds across portions of south-central/southern TX during the nighttime hours. ...Upper Midwest... Thunderstorm development during peak heating is uncertain. If the upper shortwave trough moves across the area too early, convective development may be limited in the wake of that feature. Nevertheless, a corridor of modest destabilization is expected ahead of the surface low as cool temperatures aloft support steepened midlevel lapse rates amid a moistening boundary layer. If storms develop, isolated severe hail and wind are possible with stronger storms. ..Leitman.. 04/11/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will slowly pivot east over the western U.S. on Sunday while upper riding envelopes the East. A couple of shortwave impulses will migrate northeast from the Plains to the Upper Midwest/MS Valley vicinity. Persistent midlevel southwesterly flow across the central portions will maintain lee troughing over the Plains. Meanwhile, southerly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northward from TX to WI ahead of a surface trough/dryline oriented across eastern NE into central KS, arcing south/southwest into northwest OK and western TX. A surface low is forecast to move across the Upper Midwest, where a boundary will be draped across southern MN into WI. ...Central/Southern Plains... Numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing Sunday morning across OK/TX, with more isolated activity possible northward into the Mid-MO Valley. This convection will have implications on airmass recovery and thunderstorm development along the dryline during the afternoon/evening. Some isolated wind/hail risk could accompany this early activity as clusters and/or line segments move across OK/TX during the morning. In the wake of this morning activity, persistent southwesterly mid/upper flow will maintain a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates and mixing near the dryline should erode cloud cover over portions of KS/OK/western TX. Large-scale ascent will remain nebulous, with a lack of height falls precluding large-scale support for thunderstorm development. Nevertheless, modest confluence along the dryline is forecast. Mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep lapse rates will support up to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Furthermore, supercell wind profiles are apparent in forecast soundings. This environment will conditionally support supercells along the dryline by late afternoon into the evening. However, given a lack of forcing, storm coverage is uncertain. If storms can develop along the dryline, at least a narrow corridor of large to very large hail potential will exist in addition to damaging winds and a tornado or two. Some guidance suggests morning convection could intensify or redevelop across portions of north/central TX toward the ArkLaTex, but this scenario remains very uncertain. ...South Texas/Rio Grande vicinity... A conditional severe risk is apparent during the evening/nighttime hours. A moderately unstable airmass will be in place, though deep-layer flow will be somewhat weaker compared to further north. Nevertheless, some guidance suggests supercells will develop across Mexico and could approach/cross the Rio Grande during the evening. If this occurs, an initial risk for large hail and damaging gusts will exist. With time, some potential for clustering could occur and bring a continued risk for strong winds across portions of south-central/southern TX during the nighttime hours. ...Upper Midwest... Thunderstorm development during peak heating is uncertain. If the upper shortwave trough moves across the area too early, convective development may be limited in the wake of that feature. Nevertheless, a corridor of modest destabilization is expected ahead of the surface low as cool temperatures aloft support steepened midlevel lapse rates amid a moistening boundary layer. If storms develop, isolated severe hail and wind are possible with stronger storms. ..Leitman.. 04/11/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts will be possible across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon and evening. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Rockies, central Plains, upper Mississippi Valley, and portions of the California coast. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is evident in early-morning water-vapor imagery off the California Coast. This wave will gradually de-amplify over the next 24 hours as it progresses northeastward into the northern Rockies. Further south, a lower-amplitude upper disturbance is noted off the coast of Baja CA, and will migrate northeast into southwest TX through this evening. Ahead of these features, modest lee troughing along the High Plains and the southeastward shift of surface high from the Midwest into the upper OH Valley will yield an extended fetch of southerly low-level flow from the TX coast into the upper MS Valley, resulting in northward moisture return as well as a broad zone of isentropic ascent from the Plains into the upper MS Valley. ...Southern High Plains... Thunderstorm development appears likely by mid-afternoon across southwest TX as ascent associated with the upper disturbance off the coast of Baja CA migrates out of northern Mexico and overspreads returning moisture. Initially discrete cells are likely and will pose a threat for large hail given adequate deep-layer wind shear. However, weak capping and strong ascent should promote upscale growth by early evening into one or more convective lines. As this transition occurs, strong to severe wind gusts will become the predominant hazard, though an embedded circulation or two may be possible. Based on latest guidance, the wind/tornado threat may be maximized along and south of the I-20 corridor where the signal for clustering/banding is greatest in latest CAM and ensemble guidance. ...Central Plains to the Upper MS Valley... Low-level warm air advection will likely become increasingly focused through the day and into the overnight hours from the central Plains into the upper MS Valley. 850 mb winds are forecast to strengthen to 40-50 knots by this evening and will support steady moistening in the lowest 1-2 km under a plume of 7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates. Forecast soundings suggest that this environment will be weakly capped and should support isolated to scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon hours across the central Plains before spreading/re-developing northeastward into the upper MS Valley late tonight. While deep-layer wind shear will not be overly strong (around 30 knots), it should be sufficient for a few transient organized cells capable of large hail. A more conditional supercell threat may materialize across portions of the lower MO valley where some CAM guidance depicts convection developing late afternoon along the surface warm front. Forecast soundings from this region suggest a weakly capped, but moderately buoyant and strongly sheared environment may be in place that could support a well-organized supercell. However, poor ensemble consensus limits confidence in this scenario. ...Central to northern Rockies... 00z RAOBs from the Great Basin/Four Corners region sampled steep mid-level lapse rates with modest mid-level moisture. While fairly dry, this environment was sufficient for convection yesterday and will likely support additional thunderstorms across the central to northern Rockies this afternoon as diurnal heating erodes inhibition and maximizes surface-based buoyancy. Ascent ahead of the decaying upper wave will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorms, and a combination of modest deep-layer wind shear and deep, well-mixed boundary layers will promote strong to severe downburst winds. A fairly strong wind signal in latest HREF guidance co-located with transient UH streaks lent enough confidence to expand 5% wind probabilities northwestward to address this concern. ...CA Coast... A progressive upper wave will move into northern CA late this afternoon into the overnight hours. As this occurs, ascent within the left-exit region of an attendant upper jet, coupled with cool mid-level temperatures near the center of the upper low, should support isolated thunderstorms across northern CA. Winds within the lowest 1-2 km should increase to around 40 knots as the wave moves onshore, which may be augmented by convective downdrafts to yield a few damaging gusts along the coast. ..Moore/Halbert.. 04/11/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts will be possible across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon and evening. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Rockies, central Plains, upper Mississippi Valley, and portions of the California coast. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is evident in early-morning water-vapor imagery off the California Coast. This wave will gradually de-amplify over the next 24 hours as it progresses northeastward into the northern Rockies. Further south, a lower-amplitude upper disturbance is noted off the coast of Baja CA, and will migrate northeast into southwest TX through this evening. Ahead of these features, modest lee troughing along the High Plains and the southeastward shift of surface high from the Midwest into the upper OH Valley will yield an extended fetch of southerly low-level flow from the TX coast into the upper MS Valley, resulting in northward moisture return as well as a broad zone of isentropic ascent from the Plains into the upper MS Valley. ...Southern High Plains... Thunderstorm development appears likely by mid-afternoon across southwest TX as ascent associated with the upper disturbance off the coast of Baja CA migrates out of northern Mexico and overspreads returning moisture. Initially discrete cells are likely and will pose a threat for large hail given adequate deep-layer wind shear. However, weak capping and strong ascent should promote upscale growth by early evening into one or more convective lines. As this transition occurs, strong to severe wind gusts will become the predominant hazard, though an embedded circulation or two may be possible. Based on latest guidance, the wind/tornado threat may be maximized along and south of the I-20 corridor where the signal for clustering/banding is greatest in latest CAM and ensemble guidance. ...Central Plains to the Upper MS Valley... Low-level warm air advection will likely become increasingly focused through the day and into the overnight hours from the central Plains into the upper MS Valley. 850 mb winds are forecast to strengthen to 40-50 knots by this evening and will support steady moistening in the lowest 1-2 km under a plume of 7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates. Forecast soundings suggest that this environment will be weakly capped and should support isolated to scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon hours across the central Plains before spreading/re-developing northeastward into the upper MS Valley late tonight. While deep-layer wind shear will not be overly strong (around 30 knots), it should be sufficient for a few transient organized cells capable of large hail. A more conditional supercell threat may materialize across portions of the lower MO valley where some CAM guidance depicts convection developing late afternoon along the surface warm front. Forecast soundings from this region suggest a weakly capped, but moderately buoyant and strongly sheared environment may be in place that could support a well-organized supercell. However, poor ensemble consensus limits confidence in this scenario. ...Central to northern Rockies... 00z RAOBs from the Great Basin/Four Corners region sampled steep mid-level lapse rates with modest mid-level moisture. While fairly dry, this environment was sufficient for convection yesterday and will likely support additional thunderstorms across the central to northern Rockies this afternoon as diurnal heating erodes inhibition and maximizes surface-based buoyancy. Ascent ahead of the decaying upper wave will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorms, and a combination of modest deep-layer wind shear and deep, well-mixed boundary layers will promote strong to severe downburst winds. A fairly strong wind signal in latest HREF guidance co-located with transient UH streaks lent enough confidence to expand 5% wind probabilities northwestward to address this concern. ...CA Coast... A progressive upper wave will move into northern CA late this afternoon into the overnight hours. As this occurs, ascent within the left-exit region of an attendant upper jet, coupled with cool mid-level temperatures near the center of the upper low, should support isolated thunderstorms across northern CA. Winds within the lowest 1-2 km should increase to around 40 knots as the wave moves onshore, which may be augmented by convective downdrafts to yield a few damaging gusts along the coast. ..Moore/Halbert.. 04/11/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0821 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE ORIENTATION ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain possible during the late evening hours across parts of the southern Plains and Great Basin; however, the overall severe risk appears limited. ...Southern Plains... Latest MRMS imagery depicts steady weakening of convection across northeast NM and across northern OK with the onset of nocturnal cooling and expanding convective outflows. While a couple of stronger storms are noted across far eastern NM and southwest TX, weak deep-layer wind shear and diminishing buoyancy should favor a weakening trend heading into the late evening hours. Additional elevated thunderstorms are anticipated well north of the stalled surface boundary along the OK/KS border with recent CAM guidance suggesting multi-cell clusters developing across portions of central to northeast KS after 03 UTC. The recent 00z DDC RAOB likely sampled the environment this convection will develop in, and hints that at least a small hail threat may materialize with initially discrete cells prior to upscale growth within the first couple of hours after initiation. ...Great Basin... Similar to the southern Plains, convective trends have largely shown signs of weakening over the past hour across central to northern NV where surface temperatures are quickly cooling into the 60s. The combination of rain-cooled air/outflows and the onset of nocturnal cooling should further reduce any remaining mixed-layer buoyancy (which was already fairly marginal per regional 00z RAOBs). Consequently, the thermodynamic environment no longer appears supportive of intense convection, though a strong storm or two may persist for the next hour as the boundary layer continues to stabilize. ..Moore.. 04/11/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0821 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE ORIENTATION ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain possible during the late evening hours across parts of the southern Plains and Great Basin; however, the overall severe risk appears limited. ...Southern Plains... Latest MRMS imagery depicts steady weakening of convection across northeast NM and across northern OK with the onset of nocturnal cooling and expanding convective outflows. While a couple of stronger storms are noted across far eastern NM and southwest TX, weak deep-layer wind shear and diminishing buoyancy should favor a weakening trend heading into the late evening hours. Additional elevated thunderstorms are anticipated well north of the stalled surface boundary along the OK/KS border with recent CAM guidance suggesting multi-cell clusters developing across portions of central to northeast KS after 03 UTC. The recent 00z DDC RAOB likely sampled the environment this convection will develop in, and hints that at least a small hail threat may materialize with initially discrete cells prior to upscale growth within the first couple of hours after initiation. ...Great Basin... Similar to the southern Plains, convective trends have largely shown signs of weakening over the past hour across central to northern NV where surface temperatures are quickly cooling into the 60s. The combination of rain-cooled air/outflows and the onset of nocturnal cooling should further reduce any remaining mixed-layer buoyancy (which was already fairly marginal per regional 00z RAOBs). Consequently, the thermodynamic environment no longer appears supportive of intense convection, though a strong storm or two may persist for the next hour as the boundary layer continues to stabilize. ..Moore.. 04/11/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0821 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE ORIENTATION ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain possible during the late evening hours across parts of the southern Plains and Great Basin; however, the overall severe risk appears limited. ...Southern Plains... Latest MRMS imagery depicts steady weakening of convection across northeast NM and across northern OK with the onset of nocturnal cooling and expanding convective outflows. While a couple of stronger storms are noted across far eastern NM and southwest TX, weak deep-layer wind shear and diminishing buoyancy should favor a weakening trend heading into the late evening hours. Additional elevated thunderstorms are anticipated well north of the stalled surface boundary along the OK/KS border with recent CAM guidance suggesting multi-cell clusters developing across portions of central to northeast KS after 03 UTC. The recent 00z DDC RAOB likely sampled the environment this convection will develop in, and hints that at least a small hail threat may materialize with initially discrete cells prior to upscale growth within the first couple of hours after initiation. ...Great Basin... Similar to the southern Plains, convective trends have largely shown signs of weakening over the past hour across central to northern NV where surface temperatures are quickly cooling into the 60s. The combination of rain-cooled air/outflows and the onset of nocturnal cooling should further reduce any remaining mixed-layer buoyancy (which was already fairly marginal per regional 00z RAOBs). Consequently, the thermodynamic environment no longer appears supportive of intense convection, though a strong storm or two may persist for the next hour as the boundary layer continues to stabilize. ..Moore.. 04/11/2026 Read more