Storm Prediction Center

No watches are valid as of Fri Apr 10 22:46:01 UTC 2026.

MD 0376 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 0376 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102151Z - 102345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Marginally severe thunderstorms across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles will persist late this afternoon into the evening hours. These storms will primarily be capable of damaging wind gusts and 1.00-1.25 inch hail. No weather watch issuance is anticipated at this time. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed in the vicinity and south of a surface cold front currently oriented east-west across portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Storms along and immediately south of the boundary will have support for at least some convective organization due to modest deep-layer shear of 35-40 kts, while further to the south and into eastern New Mexico, storms have primarily developed in deep/dry boundary layers with steep low-level lapse rates. All storms will be capable of some severe wind gusts and 1.00-1.25 in hail, with the greatest threat for organized severe storms being along and immediately south of the surface cold front. Thunderstorms in the deep/dry boundary layers further south are more likely to remain disorganized, but are capable of downbursts owing to the steep low-level lapse rates and tall LCL heights in excess of 2 km. No WW issuance is anticipated at this time. ..Halbert/Thompson.. 04/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 35130532 35530527 36070488 36450336 36650154 36560058 36370020 35860023 35340101 34520268 33970339 33270399 32970463 32940513 33290552 33700550 34060547 35130532 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0511 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... On Day 3/Sunday, an upper-level low is forecast to move onshore in northern California as an upper-level ridge strengthens over the central and eastern CONUS. A lee-surface low ejects off the Rockies on Day 4/Monday, slowly shifting across the Midwest and Great Lakes region by Day 6/Wednesday. This scenario is likely to result in multiple days of precipitation across the West and from Texas through the Great Lakes, which would temporarily dampen fire weather threats. Continued upper-level ridging through Day 5/Tuesday across the eastern CONUS will promote above normal temperatures and drying conditions for much of the region, though increased chances of precipitation may return towards the end of next week as the upper trough shifts east. ...Ohio River Valley - Day 3/Sunday... Increasing potential for 10-15 mph southerly winds and 30-40 percent RH will present fire weather concerns across northeastern AR into portions of the Ohio River Valley. Given recently observed widespread ERCs above the 90th percentile and low fine fuel moisture, 40 percent probabilities for Critical fire weather have been maintained. The expanse of the drawn area may be adjusted in future outlooks as guidance evolves the northward extent of gulf moisture advection. ...Central/Southern Plains and Southwest - Day 3/Sunday through Day 4/Monday... Fire weather conditions return on Day 3/Sunday as an amplified upper trough moves into the West and an associated shortwave traverses the High Plains. Dry southwesterly flow and strong winds will overlap portions of the Southwest that have not seen recent appreciable rainfall, thus 40 percent probabilities of Critical fire weather conditions have been introduced to the region. Wedged between a surface low to the north and lee surface troughing to the south, strong westerly winds and low RH atop recently receptive fuels will promote fire weather concerns across the upper central Plains. Farther south in CO, the foothills and plains east of the Rockies will experience a mix of downslope and dry return flow. Strong west-southwesterly winds and critically low RH support fire weather conditions, and will likely precondition finer fuels for a continued fire weather threat over the next few days. 40 percent probabilities of Critical fire weather have been introduced to account for this threat. Beneath the large upper trough, tight surface pressure gradients Day 4/Monday will further enhance dry and windy conditions behind the dryline in the central/southern High Plains. Despite precipitation forecast earlier in the forecast period across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle, accelerated drying on Day 3/Sunday will likely precondition the fire environment by decreasing fine fuel moisture, escalating broader fire weather concerns. Recent lightning across portions of these areas may see the emergence of holdovers and growth on existing fires given expected dry/windy conditions. 40 percent probabilities of Critical fire weather have been maintained to account for these concerns. A smaller area of 70 percent probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions was introduced on Day 4/Monday for southeastern CO to account for an overlap of stronger winds and lower RH. ...Southern Plains and portions of the Southwest - Day 5/Tuesday... As the large scale trough shifts east and lee cyclogenesis occurs east of the Rockies, gusty surface winds will continue over a dry airmass in the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest. Given multiple days of fire weather conditions over the area, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Nauslar.. 04/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0511 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... On Day 3/Sunday, an upper-level low is forecast to move onshore in northern California as an upper-level ridge strengthens over the central and eastern CONUS. A lee-surface low ejects off the Rockies on Day 4/Monday, slowly shifting across the Midwest and Great Lakes region by Day 6/Wednesday. This scenario is likely to result in multiple days of precipitation across the West and from Texas through the Great Lakes, which would temporarily dampen fire weather threats. Continued upper-level ridging through Day 5/Tuesday across the eastern CONUS will promote above normal temperatures and drying conditions for much of the region, though increased chances of precipitation may return towards the end of next week as the upper trough shifts east. ...Ohio River Valley - Day 3/Sunday... Increasing potential for 10-15 mph southerly winds and 30-40 percent RH will present fire weather concerns across northeastern AR into portions of the Ohio River Valley. Given recently observed widespread ERCs above the 90th percentile and low fine fuel moisture, 40 percent probabilities for Critical fire weather have been maintained. The expanse of the drawn area may be adjusted in future outlooks as guidance evolves the northward extent of gulf moisture advection. ...Central/Southern Plains and Southwest - Day 3/Sunday through Day 4/Monday... Fire weather conditions return on Day 3/Sunday as an amplified upper trough moves into the West and an associated shortwave traverses the High Plains. Dry southwesterly flow and strong winds will overlap portions of the Southwest that have not seen recent appreciable rainfall, thus 40 percent probabilities of Critical fire weather conditions have been introduced to the region. Wedged between a surface low to the north and lee surface troughing to the south, strong westerly winds and low RH atop recently receptive fuels will promote fire weather concerns across the upper central Plains. Farther south in CO, the foothills and plains east of the Rockies will experience a mix of downslope and dry return flow. Strong west-southwesterly winds and critically low RH support fire weather conditions, and will likely precondition finer fuels for a continued fire weather threat over the next few days. 40 percent probabilities of Critical fire weather have been introduced to account for this threat. Beneath the large upper trough, tight surface pressure gradients Day 4/Monday will further enhance dry and windy conditions behind the dryline in the central/southern High Plains. Despite precipitation forecast earlier in the forecast period across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle, accelerated drying on Day 3/Sunday will likely precondition the fire environment by decreasing fine fuel moisture, escalating broader fire weather concerns. Recent lightning across portions of these areas may see the emergence of holdovers and growth on existing fires given expected dry/windy conditions. 40 percent probabilities of Critical fire weather have been maintained to account for these concerns. A smaller area of 70 percent probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions was introduced on Day 4/Monday for southeastern CO to account for an overlap of stronger winds and lower RH. ...Southern Plains and portions of the Southwest - Day 5/Tuesday... As the large scale trough shifts east and lee cyclogenesis occurs east of the Rockies, gusty surface winds will continue over a dry airmass in the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest. Given multiple days of fire weather conditions over the area, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Nauslar.. 04/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF OREGON...THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA...THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts remain possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the south-central Plains to the Ozarks. Strong to locally severe storms may also occur from western/northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho, and also across parts of north-central California. ...20z Update... Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook. A prominent differential heating/outflow boundary associated with a cluster of thunderstorms over OK is forecast to continue sagging southward this afternoon. An increase in storm coverage is possible this afternoon and evening associated with the ongoing cluster and the trailing boundary. With moderate buoyancy weak vertical shear, a low-end risk for damaging gusts and hail could develop. 5% wind and hail probabilities have been expanded slightly farther southeastward. To the West across the Great Basin, strong mid-level ascent ahead of the upper low over the Pacific Coast was overspreading a marginally moist and buoyant air mass across parts of NV. Strong southerly flow aloft could support a few semi-organized storms or clusters capable of damaging gusts and sporadic hail. 5% wind and hail probabilities have been expanded southward over parts of NV where buoyancy and shear overlap could support some severe potential. Otherwise, isolated severe storms remain possible across parts of the central Valley of CA and western OR. The forecast remains unchanged, see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 04/10/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026/ ...Southern High Plains/South-central Plains into the Ozarks... Recent surface analysis places a low over the western TX Panhandle, with a cold front extending east-northeastward from this low across northwest and north-central OK, and far southeast KS, before becoming oriented more northeastward across southern and central MO. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this boundary, as well modest southeastward-progressing outflow, across far southern KS and northern OK. The cold front is forecast to trend more stationary throughout the day as heights rise across the Plains and southerly low-level flow persists across the southern Plains, with the outflow following this trend as well. After 06Z, this stationary boundary will likely begin shifting back northward into southern KS as warm front. Additional thunderstorm development is possible amid low-level convergence near both the stationary front and outflow as the airmass modestly destabilizes this afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and/or marginally severe hail is possible with the strongest storms, but modest shear and buoyancy suggests most storms will be sub-severe. Farther west, low-level convergence along a sharpening lee trough may contribute to late afternoon thunderstorm development across the southern High Plain, particularly northeast NM. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates support the potential for strong downbursts with any deep/more persistent updrafts. Some interaction with the western extent of the frontal zone is possible as well, which could briefly enhance updrafts, contributing to a continued potential for damaging gusts as well as isolated hail. ...North-central CA/western OR into the northern Great Basin... Upper low currently centered just off the northern/central CA coast is forecast to become more progressive and negatively tilted throughout the day today. Mid-level moisture and ascent attendant to this wave will support scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon from central/northern CA and western OR into the northern Great Basin and interior Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft (i.e. -20 deg C at 500 mb) and strong diurnal heating will result in steep low/mid-level lapse rates and at least modest buoyancy across much of the region. A few areas (interior valley of central CA, Willamette Valley in OR, and northern NV/southwest OR/southern ID) appear to have a slightly higher potential for isolated strong to severe storms, largely a result of more diurnal heating/higher afternoon temperatures. Greater buoyancy combined with moderate/strong deep-layer shear will support semi-organized cells/clusters, and perhaps even a few supercells, may develop with an attendant threat of hail and localized severe wind gusts. Deep-layer shear will be a bit weaker across the interior valley of central CA but still sufficient for a few organized storms. The steep lapse rate environment and local terrain influences could also support transient cell rotation and possibly funnels, or even a brief tornado. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Afternoon Update... Elevated fire weather highlights were added for portions eastern WY, northwestern NE Panhandle, and southwestern SD. As a strengthening surface low traverses northern MT, tightening surface pressure gradients and surface lee troughing east of the Rockies will promote seasonably warm, dry and breezy west-southwesterly flow. RH of 15-20 percent and sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) atop recently receptive fuels will promote elevated fire weather concerns. An overlapping area of Isolated Dry Thunder has also been introduced, extending farther into northeastern CO and the western NE Panhandle. Large scale ascent associated with an approaching shortwave trough is expected to provide enough forcing in a region of adequate instability (200-350 J/kg MUCAPE) for afternoon and evening isolated to possibly scattered thunderstorms. Provided a near 3 km deep dry sub-cloud layer, gusty and erratic winds will further enhance the fire environment with any new fire starts. Isolated thunderstorms are likely across portions of northern AZ into central/eastern UT and western CO. While elevated winds/RH and a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are likely across these areas, anticipated rainfall and marginal fuels preclude the introduction of Elevated and IsoDryT areas at this time. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Nauslar.. 04/10/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will shift from the Great Plains to the eastern CONUS as longwave troughing shifts offshore of the Northeast on D2/Saturday. A closed upper-level low will simultaneously approach the California coastline while a mid-level shortwave trough traverses northeastward across the Great Basin and northern Great Plains. A cold front will slowly move southward across the Mid-Atlantic while a warm front lifts northeastward across the Great Plains. Surface high pressure will remain in place across the Southeast and Great Lakes. ...Portions of the Great Basin... Sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph may briefly overlap reduced RH values of 15-20% across the eastern/southern Great Basin. This may promote the potential for locally elevated fire weather concerns across portions of eastern Utah and northeastern Arizona Saturday afternoon where fuels will have been preconditioned by a couple of days of dry, breezy conditions. Elevated highlights have been withheld at this time, however, due to the potential for sporadic showers during the afternoon as well as uncertainty regarding lingering mid/high cloud cover, which may inhibit greater boundary layer mixing and thus temper RH reductions. Trends will continue to be monitored for future outlook issuances. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Afternoon Update... Elevated fire weather highlights were added for portions eastern WY, northwestern NE Panhandle, and southwestern SD. As a strengthening surface low traverses northern MT, tightening surface pressure gradients and surface lee troughing east of the Rockies will promote seasonably warm, dry and breezy west-southwesterly flow. RH of 15-20 percent and sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) atop recently receptive fuels will promote elevated fire weather concerns. An overlapping area of Isolated Dry Thunder has also been introduced, extending farther into northeastern CO and the western NE Panhandle. Large scale ascent associated with an approaching shortwave trough is expected to provide enough forcing in a region of adequate instability (200-350 J/kg MUCAPE) for afternoon and evening isolated to possibly scattered thunderstorms. Provided a near 3 km deep dry sub-cloud layer, gusty and erratic winds will further enhance the fire environment with any new fire starts. Isolated thunderstorms are likely across portions of northern AZ into central/eastern UT and western CO. While elevated winds/RH and a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are likely across these areas, anticipated rainfall and marginal fuels preclude the introduction of Elevated and IsoDryT areas at this time. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Nauslar.. 04/10/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will shift from the Great Plains to the eastern CONUS as longwave troughing shifts offshore of the Northeast on D2/Saturday. A closed upper-level low will simultaneously approach the California coastline while a mid-level shortwave trough traverses northeastward across the Great Basin and northern Great Plains. A cold front will slowly move southward across the Mid-Atlantic while a warm front lifts northeastward across the Great Plains. Surface high pressure will remain in place across the Southeast and Great Lakes. ...Portions of the Great Basin... Sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph may briefly overlap reduced RH values of 15-20% across the eastern/southern Great Basin. This may promote the potential for locally elevated fire weather concerns across portions of eastern Utah and northeastern Arizona Saturday afternoon where fuels will have been preconditioned by a couple of days of dry, breezy conditions. Elevated highlights have been withheld at this time, however, due to the potential for sporadic showers during the afternoon as well as uncertainty regarding lingering mid/high cloud cover, which may inhibit greater boundary layer mixing and thus temper RH reductions. Trends will continue to be monitored for future outlook issuances. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0373 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHERN NEVADA INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST OREGON AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST IDAHO
Mesoscale Discussion 0373 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Areas affected...portions of western...central...and northern Nevada into extreme southeast Oregon and extreme southwest Idaho Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 101925Z - 102130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few instances of severe hail or wind may accompany the stronger storms this afternoon. DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar data show convective cores deepening to the lee of the Sierra over portions of western NV, with convective initiation underway across central NV. Diurnal heating has helped boost surface temperatures into the low 60s F, beneath 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, yielding MLCAPE over 500 J/kg (per 19Z mesoanalysis). Buoyancy should only increase through the afternoon with continued heating, resulting in increased storm coverage and intensity. While tropospheric flow will remain generally unidirectional, vertical speed shear will support organized multicells and transient supercells as the primary modes of convection. Elongated, straight hodographs suggest that severe hail will be the main threat, though a couple of severe gusts are also possible. The overall severe threat should remain isolated though, so a WW issuance is not currently anticipated. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...REV... LAT...LON 39281965 40801939 41881901 42251817 42411656 42301592 42021547 41641528 41031524 40341553 39841610 39451676 39211715 39081757 38981807 38921846 38911890 39281965 MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0374 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0374 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Areas affected...parts of northwest/west central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 101928Z - 102200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development appears probable southwest through west-northwest of the Enid OK vicinity through 3-5 PM CDT, with stronger storms posing a risk for small to marginally severe hail and localized strong wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Insolation appears to have contribute to moderate boundary-layer destabilization (including CAPE up to 2000 J/kg) along the western flank of stalled/slow moving convective outflow to the north through west-northwest of the Greater Oklahoma City area. As destabilization continues, and mid-level inhibition erodes, deepening convective development is underway in a corridor southwest of Enid into areas near/south of Gage OK. Further intensification into increasing thunderstorm development appears probable through the next couple of hours, perhaps aided by forcing for ascent associated with weak low-level warm advection. Vertical shear across this region will remain quite weak, in the presence of westerly deep-layer mean flow on the order of 10-15 kt. However, thermodynamic profiles may be cool enough, with modestly steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, to support small to marginally severe hail in occasional stronger updraft pulses. A couple of strong downbursts also appear possible, but the evolution of a mesoscale convective vortex with consolidating, sustained vigorous thunderstorm development will probably be needed to support a more appreciable risk for damaging wind gusts. Potential for this currently seems low, but perhaps not out of the question. ..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN... LAT...LON 36259966 36289847 36059718 35719714 35359739 35539862 35789968 36259966 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a ridge will become established across the eastern CONUS with a trough advancing slowly inland across the West. A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move from the central Plains to the Great Lakes during the period. Persistent mid-level flow across the Rockies will continue lee troughing and northward moisture transport across the Plains. ...Central/Southern Plains... A large area of precipitation is expected to be ongoing Sunday morning from central Oklahoma to central Texas. This is expected to move slowly northeast through the day. Subsidence in the wake of the morning shortwave trough associated with this activity should allow for recovery ahead of the dryline from West Texas to central Kansas. In addition, southwesterly to west-southwesterly flow aloft and a well-established EML should assist in erosion of cloud cover across this region by late morning. Therefore, by late Sunday afternoon, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop ahead of the dryline. Forcing across the warm sector remains weak and casts considerable conditionality to the forecast. Guidance shows mostly neutral heights across the dryline during the day. In addition, the dryline remains relatively diffuse which would not support the strong convergent circulations necessary for convective initiation. However, it is worth noting that much of the guidance has a dryline orientation oriented somewhat northeast to southwest. Therefore, any convection which develops within this zone may have a long enough residence time to mature before moving off of the dryline. Given the expectation for minimal inhibition during the afternoon, this may favor storm development along particular mesoscale corridors along the dryline Sunday afternoon/early evening in an otherwise weakly forced environment. Given moderate to potentially strong instability and moderate shear, large hail (including the potential for 2+ inch hail) will likely be the primary hazard with any supercells that develop. ...Central/South Texas... 12Z guidance is fairly consistent with the depiction of a mid-level shortwave trough moving across northern Mexico during the day Sunday. Given the strong instability across northern Mexico and south Texas, it would seem likely for storms to develop along the higher terrain of northern Mexico during the afternoon/evening ahead of this trough. Strong instability downstream could maintain these storms through the evening with some potential for upscale growth (such as shown by the RRFS). However, significant inhibition on forecast soundings and minimal QPF signal from the global guidance, combined with minimal convection over the higher terrain in Mexico from the other CAM guidance out through 00Z casts some doubt on this scenario. An additional scenario is possible across central Texas. At the southern end of the morning convection, continued storm development is possible within a supercell environment. This scenario is less certain given rising heights aloft and will likely be dictated by the character of the cold pool from Saturday night/Sunday morning storms. However, this is a scenario depicted by some guidance (most notably the ECMWF) which could have a locally higher severe weather threat across this region on Sunday afternoon. ...Upper Midwest... A conditional supercell environment will also exist across the Upper Midwest ahead of a surface low, though severe risk will depend on timing of the mid-level shortwave trough. Uncertainties regarding storm coverage remain, but will maintain the Marginal Risk and trends will be monitored. ..Bentley.. 04/10/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a ridge will become established across the eastern CONUS with a trough advancing slowly inland across the West. A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move from the central Plains to the Great Lakes during the period. Persistent mid-level flow across the Rockies will continue lee troughing and northward moisture transport across the Plains. ...Central/Southern Plains... A large area of precipitation is expected to be ongoing Sunday morning from central Oklahoma to central Texas. This is expected to move slowly northeast through the day. Subsidence in the wake of the morning shortwave trough associated with this activity should allow for recovery ahead of the dryline from West Texas to central Kansas. In addition, southwesterly to west-southwesterly flow aloft and a well-established EML should assist in erosion of cloud cover across this region by late morning. Therefore, by late Sunday afternoon, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop ahead of the dryline. Forcing across the warm sector remains weak and casts considerable conditionality to the forecast. Guidance shows mostly neutral heights across the dryline during the day. In addition, the dryline remains relatively diffuse which would not support the strong convergent circulations necessary for convective initiation. However, it is worth noting that much of the guidance has a dryline orientation oriented somewhat northeast to southwest. Therefore, any convection which develops within this zone may have a long enough residence time to mature before moving off of the dryline. Given the expectation for minimal inhibition during the afternoon, this may favor storm development along particular mesoscale corridors along the dryline Sunday afternoon/early evening in an otherwise weakly forced environment. Given moderate to potentially strong instability and moderate shear, large hail (including the potential for 2+ inch hail) will likely be the primary hazard with any supercells that develop. ...Central/South Texas... 12Z guidance is fairly consistent with the depiction of a mid-level shortwave trough moving across northern Mexico during the day Sunday. Given the strong instability across northern Mexico and south Texas, it would seem likely for storms to develop along the higher terrain of northern Mexico during the afternoon/evening ahead of this trough. Strong instability downstream could maintain these storms through the evening with some potential for upscale growth (such as shown by the RRFS). However, significant inhibition on forecast soundings and minimal QPF signal from the global guidance, combined with minimal convection over the higher terrain in Mexico from the other CAM guidance out through 00Z casts some doubt on this scenario. An additional scenario is possible across central Texas. At the southern end of the morning convection, continued storm development is possible within a supercell environment. This scenario is less certain given rising heights aloft and will likely be dictated by the character of the cold pool from Saturday night/Sunday morning storms. However, this is a scenario depicted by some guidance (most notably the ECMWF) which could have a locally higher severe weather threat across this region on Sunday afternoon. ...Upper Midwest... A conditional supercell environment will also exist across the Upper Midwest ahead of a surface low, though severe risk will depend on timing of the mid-level shortwave trough. Uncertainties regarding storm coverage remain, but will maintain the Marginal Risk and trends will be monitored. ..Bentley.. 04/10/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts will be possible across portions of the central and southern Plains on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge across the Plains will move east through the day on Saturday with a strong mid-level trough approaching the California coast. In between these 2 features, a mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Great Basin to the Northern Plains. Lee surface troughing will develop across the Front Range. The resulting strengthening low-level southerly flow will bring moisture northward across the Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Moderate instability is forecast to develop by early afternoon across West Texas and into eastern New Mexico. Weak inhibition should allow for widespread thunderstorm development by early to mid-afternoon. Relatively weak shear, especially early on will likely result in somewhat nebulous organization and storm mergers which may preclude individual updraft longevity/strength. However, storms are expected to congeal by late afternoon and may result in some more organized wind threat, supported into the overnight period, as the low-level jet strengthens. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Weak height falls are expected to overspread the central Plains through the day on Saturday. As this occurs, isolated to potentially scattered storms are expected along and near the diffuse dryline. Shear will remain somewhat weak across this region and therefore, some hail/wind threat is possible, but a greater threat is not anticipated. Guidance shows a small jet-streak ejecting across central Kansas during the day Saturday. This may provide a slightly more favorable zone of shear across central Kansas and southeast Nebraska Saturday afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings show an uncapped environment, but without an initiating boundary, storm development remains uncertain. Any mesoscale lift associated with this mid-level jet streak could result in an isolated supercell during the afternoon/evening, but this scenario remains conditional. ...Iowa into southern Minnesota... As the low-level jet strengthens Saturday night, isentropic ascent will increase and thunderstorms will develop across the Upper Midwest. Some 12Z CAM guidance has hinted at some additional elevated thunderstorms across northern Iowa and southern Minnesota in the wake of the primary zone of ascent. This is likely associated with the same jet streak moving across Kansas during the day. If storms develop within this zone, forecast soundings support some large hail threat. Therefore, the Marginal Risk has been expanded to cover this threat. ...Central California... A line of showers and thunderstorms will approach the California coast Saturday afternoon. Forecast soundings show relatively weak instability ahead of this line (100 to 200 J/kg MLCAPE). However, 40 knots of flow in the lowest 1km may be sufficient to mix down some of these stronger winds and result in some severe wind threat Saturday afternoon/evening. ...Great Basin Vicinity... Given the well-mixed, steep lapse-rate environment a few of the storms which develop across the Great Basin vicinity could have some strong wind gusts. Relatively weak instability may keep these stronger gusts somewhat sporadic. Therefore, a Marginal Risk will not be introduced at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/10/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...Morning Update... The previous forecast remains on track as no changes were made to the Elevated fire weather risk area over eastern UT into western CO. For portions of the Ohio River Valley, current RH of 30-40 percent is expected to be short-lived, as increasing cloud cover and surface moisture ahead of an approaching cold front reduces broader fire concerns. For parts of eastern NM into the Caprock and TX/OK Panhandles, a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening has the potential for lightning ignitions as fuels remain receptive. However, 10-15 kt storm motions, increasing PWATs of 0.7-1.0 in., and the expanding coverage of showers this evening precludes the introduction of a dry thunderstorm risk area. Gusty and erratic outflow winds are likely with any afternoon thunderstorm, locally enhancing fire weather concerns for new ignitions and ongoing fires from yesterday's lightning starts. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Nauslar.. 04/10/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will shift eastward today from the eastern Great Basin into the Great Plains as longwave upper troughing shifts across the northern Great Lakes region and the Northeast. Meanwhile, a mid-level shortwave trough will progress northeastward across California and the western Great Basin while another upper trough approaches the California coastline behind it. A slow moving cold front will progress south-southeastward across the Northeast, Ohio River Valley, and central Great Plains, with surface high pressure positioned across the Southeast and Great Lakes regions. ...Portions of the Great Basin... Surface low pressure across the northern Great Basin in conjunction with high pressure across the Great Lakes/Southeast will promote a tightened pressure gradient and resultant sustained southerly surface winds of 15-25 mph across much of the eastern/southern Great Basin today. Despite increasing mid/high cloud cover, minimum RH values of 15-20% (locally down to 10%) are forecast during peak mixing this afternoon. With preconditioned, drying fuels from Thursday, this combination of winds/RH is expected to support elevated fire weather concerns today across portions of eastern Utah into northwestern Colorado. Locally critical conditions may be possible should stronger surface winds overlap with locally lower RH values, but these conditions are expected to remain brief should they materialize. Deep boundary layer mixing and modestly strong mid-level flow (25-35 kts within the 700-500 mb layer) will also support the potential for periodic gusts up to 30-35 mph across the region. ...Portions of the mid/upper Ohio River Valley... Ahead of an approaching cold front, west-southwesterly sustained winds of 10 mph (with occasional gusts of 15-20 mph) combined with RH values dropping to 30-35% are expected to overlap a region of drying and potentially receptive fuels from northeastern Kentucky/southern Ohio into northeastern West Virginia and southeastern Pennsylvania. With ERCs across this region approaching the 97th percentile, this overlap of winds/RH may support a few hours of locally elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon. A passing cold front will bring a shift to northerly winds, increasing moisture, and decreasing winds speeds later this evening, which should provide some relief to the fire environment. Coupled with low confidence in widespread sustained winds exceeding 15 mph during the afternoon, Elevated highlights have been withheld at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...Morning Update... The previous forecast remains on track as no changes were made to the Elevated fire weather risk area over eastern UT into western CO. For portions of the Ohio River Valley, current RH of 30-40 percent is expected to be short-lived, as increasing cloud cover and surface moisture ahead of an approaching cold front reduces broader fire concerns. For parts of eastern NM into the Caprock and TX/OK Panhandles, a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening has the potential for lightning ignitions as fuels remain receptive. However, 10-15 kt storm motions, increasing PWATs of 0.7-1.0 in., and the expanding coverage of showers this evening precludes the introduction of a dry thunderstorm risk area. Gusty and erratic outflow winds are likely with any afternoon thunderstorm, locally enhancing fire weather concerns for new ignitions and ongoing fires from yesterday's lightning starts. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Nauslar.. 04/10/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will shift eastward today from the eastern Great Basin into the Great Plains as longwave upper troughing shifts across the northern Great Lakes region and the Northeast. Meanwhile, a mid-level shortwave trough will progress northeastward across California and the western Great Basin while another upper trough approaches the California coastline behind it. A slow moving cold front will progress south-southeastward across the Northeast, Ohio River Valley, and central Great Plains, with surface high pressure positioned across the Southeast and Great Lakes regions. ...Portions of the Great Basin... Surface low pressure across the northern Great Basin in conjunction with high pressure across the Great Lakes/Southeast will promote a tightened pressure gradient and resultant sustained southerly surface winds of 15-25 mph across much of the eastern/southern Great Basin today. Despite increasing mid/high cloud cover, minimum RH values of 15-20% (locally down to 10%) are forecast during peak mixing this afternoon. With preconditioned, drying fuels from Thursday, this combination of winds/RH is expected to support elevated fire weather concerns today across portions of eastern Utah into northwestern Colorado. Locally critical conditions may be possible should stronger surface winds overlap with locally lower RH values, but these conditions are expected to remain brief should they materialize. Deep boundary layer mixing and modestly strong mid-level flow (25-35 kts within the 700-500 mb layer) will also support the potential for periodic gusts up to 30-35 mph across the region. ...Portions of the mid/upper Ohio River Valley... Ahead of an approaching cold front, west-southwesterly sustained winds of 10 mph (with occasional gusts of 15-20 mph) combined with RH values dropping to 30-35% are expected to overlap a region of drying and potentially receptive fuels from northeastern Kentucky/southern Ohio into northeastern West Virginia and southeastern Pennsylvania. With ERCs across this region approaching the 97th percentile, this overlap of winds/RH may support a few hours of locally elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon. A passing cold front will bring a shift to northerly winds, increasing moisture, and decreasing winds speeds later this evening, which should provide some relief to the fire environment. Coupled with low confidence in widespread sustained winds exceeding 15 mph during the afternoon, Elevated highlights have been withheld at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Apr 10 16:35:02 UTC 2026.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS...NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/GREAT BASIN...AND WESTERN OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the south-central Plains to the Ozarks. Strong to locally severe storms may also occur from western/northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho, and also across parts of north-central California. ...Southern High Plains/South-central Plains into the Ozarks... Recent surface analysis places a low over the western TX Panhandle, with a cold front extending east-northeastward from this low across northwest and north-central OK, and far southeast KS, before becoming oriented more northeastward across southern and central MO. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this boundary, as well modest southeastward-progressing outflow, across far southern KS and northern OK. The cold front is forecast to trend more stationary throughout the day as heights rise across the Plains and southerly low-level flow persists across the southern Plains, with the outflow following this trend as well. After 06Z, this stationary boundary will likely begin shifting back northward into southern KS as warm front. Additional thunderstorm development is possible amid low-level convergence near both the stationary front and outflow as the airmass modestly destabilizes this afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and/or marginally severe hail is possible with the strongest storms, but modest shear and buoyancy suggests most storms will be sub-severe. Farther west, low-level convergence along a sharpening lee trough may contribute to late afternoon thunderstorm development across the southern High Plain, particularly northeast NM. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates support the potential for strong downbursts with any deep/more persistent updrafts. Some interaction with the western extent of the frontal zone is possible as well, which could briefly enhance updrafts, contributing to a continued potential for damaging gusts as well as isolated hail. ...North-central CA/western OR into the northern Great Basin... Upper low currently centered just off the northern/central CA coast is forecast to become more progressive and negatively tilted throughout the day today. Mid-level moisture and ascent attendant to this wave will support scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon from central/northern CA and western OR into the northern Great Basin and interior Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft (i.e. -20 deg C at 500 mb) and strong diurnal heating will result in steep low/mid-level lapse rates and at least modest buoyancy across much of the region. A few areas (interior valley of central CA, Willamette Valley in OR, and northern NV/southwest OR/southern ID) appear to have a slightly higher potential for isolated strong to severe storms, largely a result of more diurnal heating/higher afternoon temperatures. Greater buoyancy combined with moderate/strong deep-layer shear will support semi-organized cells/clusters, and perhaps even a few supercells, may develop with an attendant threat of hail and localized severe wind gusts. Deep-layer shear will be a bit weaker across the interior valley of central CA but still sufficient for a few organized storms. The steep lapse rate environment and local terrain influences could also support transient cell rotation and possibly funnels, or even a brief tornado. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 04/10/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS...NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/GREAT BASIN...AND WESTERN OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the south-central Plains to the Ozarks. Strong to locally severe storms may also occur from western/northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho, and also across parts of north-central California. ...Southern High Plains/South-central Plains into the Ozarks... Recent surface analysis places a low over the western TX Panhandle, with a cold front extending east-northeastward from this low across northwest and north-central OK, and far southeast KS, before becoming oriented more northeastward across southern and central MO. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this boundary, as well modest southeastward-progressing outflow, across far southern KS and northern OK. The cold front is forecast to trend more stationary throughout the day as heights rise across the Plains and southerly low-level flow persists across the southern Plains, with the outflow following this trend as well. After 06Z, this stationary boundary will likely begin shifting back northward into southern KS as warm front. Additional thunderstorm development is possible amid low-level convergence near both the stationary front and outflow as the airmass modestly destabilizes this afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and/or marginally severe hail is possible with the strongest storms, but modest shear and buoyancy suggests most storms will be sub-severe. Farther west, low-level convergence along a sharpening lee trough may contribute to late afternoon thunderstorm development across the southern High Plain, particularly northeast NM. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates support the potential for strong downbursts with any deep/more persistent updrafts. Some interaction with the western extent of the frontal zone is possible as well, which could briefly enhance updrafts, contributing to a continued potential for damaging gusts as well as isolated hail. ...North-central CA/western OR into the northern Great Basin... Upper low currently centered just off the northern/central CA coast is forecast to become more progressive and negatively tilted throughout the day today. Mid-level moisture and ascent attendant to this wave will support scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon from central/northern CA and western OR into the northern Great Basin and interior Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft (i.e. -20 deg C at 500 mb) and strong diurnal heating will result in steep low/mid-level lapse rates and at least modest buoyancy across much of the region. A few areas (interior valley of central CA, Willamette Valley in OR, and northern NV/southwest OR/southern ID) appear to have a slightly higher potential for isolated strong to severe storms, largely a result of more diurnal heating/higher afternoon temperatures. Greater buoyancy combined with moderate/strong deep-layer shear will support semi-organized cells/clusters, and perhaps even a few supercells, may develop with an attendant threat of hail and localized severe wind gusts. Deep-layer shear will be a bit weaker across the interior valley of central CA but still sufficient for a few organized storms. The steep lapse rate environment and local terrain influences could also support transient cell rotation and possibly funnels, or even a brief tornado. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 04/10/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/GREAT BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the south-central Plains to the Ozarks. Strong to locally severe storms may also occur from western/northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho, and also across parts of north-central California. ...South-central Plains/Ozarks... Scattered rain and generally weak thunderstorms will continue to accompany and reinforce a southward-shifting front, with the boundary stalling today, before starting to shift back northward late tonight. Weakening flow aloft will occur today in the presence of a building upper ridge and corresponding height rises. As outflows dissipate, ample heating/mixing is expected later today to the south of the front, where MLCAPE values may exceed 1500 J/kg across Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico. Even with modest overall forcing for ascent, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon in the vicinity of the boundary across parts of far southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma into the Ozarks, with additional development possible near the front, and also within a post-frontal regime across the south-central High Plains vicinity. With rather modest large-scale ascent and weak deep-layer flow across the region, storm organization and duration may generally remain somewhat limited. However, more organized cells may briefly develop on an isolated basis more immediately near the boundary, where some enhancement to effective shear/SRH will be possible. Isolated large hail appears to be the most likely hazard, although localized strong/damaging wind gusts could also occur. ...Nevada/southeast OR/southwest ID and north-central CA... A closed upper low off the coast of northern California will open and become more progressive, reaching the Sierra and parts of the Great Basin tonight. Related forcing for ascent and moisture will influence scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon across parts of central/northern California into the northern Great Basin and interior Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft and rather strong diurnal heating will result in steep low/mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg. Mid-level flow and deep-layer shear will gradually increase over time, with the most favorable overlap of vertical shear and instability expected across western/northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho. Semi-organized cells/clusters, and perhaps even a few supercells, may develop with an attendant threat of hail and localized severe wind gusts. A few locally severe storms may also develop across parts of the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys in California this afternoon. While deep-layer shear will be somewhat weaker as compared to the northern Great Basin, cold temperatures aloft (near/below -20C at 500 mb) may support marginally severe hail with the strongest storms. The steep lapse rate environment and local terrain influences could also support transient cell rotation and possibly funnels, or even a brief tornado, although this potential currently seems low/uncertain. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 04/10/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/GREAT BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the south-central Plains to the Ozarks. Strong to locally severe storms may also occur from western/northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho, and also across parts of north-central California. ...South-central Plains/Ozarks... Scattered rain and generally weak thunderstorms will continue to accompany and reinforce a southward-shifting front, with the boundary stalling today, before starting to shift back northward late tonight. Weakening flow aloft will occur today in the presence of a building upper ridge and corresponding height rises. As outflows dissipate, ample heating/mixing is expected later today to the south of the front, where MLCAPE values may exceed 1500 J/kg across Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico. Even with modest overall forcing for ascent, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon in the vicinity of the boundary across parts of far southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma into the Ozarks, with additional development possible near the front, and also within a post-frontal regime across the south-central High Plains vicinity. With rather modest large-scale ascent and weak deep-layer flow across the region, storm organization and duration may generally remain somewhat limited. However, more organized cells may briefly develop on an isolated basis more immediately near the boundary, where some enhancement to effective shear/SRH will be possible. Isolated large hail appears to be the most likely hazard, although localized strong/damaging wind gusts could also occur. ...Nevada/southeast OR/southwest ID and north-central CA... A closed upper low off the coast of northern California will open and become more progressive, reaching the Sierra and parts of the Great Basin tonight. Related forcing for ascent and moisture will influence scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon across parts of central/northern California into the northern Great Basin and interior Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft and rather strong diurnal heating will result in steep low/mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg. Mid-level flow and deep-layer shear will gradually increase over time, with the most favorable overlap of vertical shear and instability expected across western/northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho. Semi-organized cells/clusters, and perhaps even a few supercells, may develop with an attendant threat of hail and localized severe wind gusts. A few locally severe storms may also develop across parts of the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys in California this afternoon. While deep-layer shear will be somewhat weaker as compared to the northern Great Basin, cold temperatures aloft (near/below -20C at 500 mb) may support marginally severe hail with the strongest storms. The steep lapse rate environment and local terrain influences could also support transient cell rotation and possibly funnels, or even a brief tornado, although this potential currently seems low/uncertain. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 04/10/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-6/Mon-Wed -- Central/Southern Plains to the Midwest... There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding severe potential/evolution during the Monday-Wednesday period. An upper trough will slowly pivot across the West on Monday, and emerge over the central/southern Rockies by early Wednesday before finally ejecting across the Plains and toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley on Wednesday. During this time, broad southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley. On Monday, a surface low will develop over the northern/central Plains, with a dryline extending southward across KS/OK/TX and a warm front extending across southern MN/WI. Several lead shortwave impulses will move across the Plains, though height tendencies will remain mostly neutral. Nevertheless, cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing boundary layer moisture (surface dewpoints in the low/mid 60s F) will support moderate to strong destabilization. During the evening, a southwesterly low-level jet will increase across the Plains, overspreading the surface dryline. Vertically veering wind profiles and 30-40 kt effective shear magnitudes would support supercells capable of all hazards, though storm coverage remains uncertain. By Tuesday, the GFS becomes more progressive with the western trough, ejecting it into the Plains by early Wednesday, whereas the ECMWF hangs the trough back west and is slower. Nevertheless, a similar airmass will be in place across the warm sector east of a dryline across the Plains and to the south of a warm front draped across the Great Lakes. Isolated convection may develop along the dryline across the Plains, posing a supercell/all-hazards risk. Higher storm coverage appears more likely across portions of the Mid/Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes vicinity closer to a surface low. On Wednesday, the upper trough should progress from the Plains to the Great Lakes while weakening some. A surface cold front will develop southeast across portions of the central U.S. and some severe risk should persist along/ahead of this boundary. How convection evolves on Tuesday into Wednesday will impact where the greatest severe risk will develop, but at least some risk should exist from portions of the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley. ...Days 7-8/Thu-Fri... Predictability is low heading into the end of the forecast period on Thursday and Friday as large spread exists among medium range guidance. However, western U.S. upper troughing may persist, suggesting some severe thunderstorm potential could persist for parts of the Plains late in the work week. Read more