Storm Prediction Center

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-6/Mon-Wed -- Central/Southern Plains to the Midwest... There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding severe potential/evolution during the Monday-Wednesday period. An upper trough will slowly pivot across the West on Monday, and emerge over the central/southern Rockies by early Wednesday before finally ejecting across the Plains and toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley on Wednesday. During this time, broad southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley. On Monday, a surface low will develop over the northern/central Plains, with a dryline extending southward across KS/OK/TX and a warm front extending across southern MN/WI. Several lead shortwave impulses will move across the Plains, though height tendencies will remain mostly neutral. Nevertheless, cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing boundary layer moisture (surface dewpoints in the low/mid 60s F) will support moderate to strong destabilization. During the evening, a southwesterly low-level jet will increase across the Plains, overspreading the surface dryline. Vertically veering wind profiles and 30-40 kt effective shear magnitudes would support supercells capable of all hazards, though storm coverage remains uncertain. By Tuesday, the GFS becomes more progressive with the western trough, ejecting it into the Plains by early Wednesday, whereas the ECMWF hangs the trough back west and is slower. Nevertheless, a similar airmass will be in place across the warm sector east of a dryline across the Plains and to the south of a warm front draped across the Great Lakes. Isolated convection may develop along the dryline across the Plains, posing a supercell/all-hazards risk. Higher storm coverage appears more likely across portions of the Mid/Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes vicinity closer to a surface low. On Wednesday, the upper trough should progress from the Plains to the Great Lakes while weakening some. A surface cold front will develop southeast across portions of the central U.S. and some severe risk should persist along/ahead of this boundary. How convection evolves on Tuesday into Wednesday will impact where the greatest severe risk will develop, but at least some risk should exist from portions of the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley. ...Days 7-8/Thu-Fri... Predictability is low heading into the end of the forecast period on Thursday and Friday as large spread exists among medium range guidance. However, western U.S. upper troughing may persist, suggesting some severe thunderstorm potential could persist for parts of the Plains late in the work week. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. ...Central/Southern Plains to the Upper Midwest... An upper trough will slowly pivot east across the western U.S. on Sunday. Low-amplitude, broad southwesterly flow will persist downstream of the western trough across much of the rest of the U.S. A weak upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Upper Midwest through midday before weakening over the Great Lakes during the afternoon. At the surface, weak troughing will extend from MN into NE and southward across western KS/OK/TX. Low 60s F dewpoints will be in place east of the surface trough from TX into IA/IL/WI. Quite a bit of uncertainty exists for the Day 3 period and forecast confidence is fairly low. Precipitation will likely be ongoing across portions of OK/TX, and possibly northward into KS and the Upper Midwest as a continuation of Day 2 overnight storms and persistent warm advection. A weak shortwave impulse over the southern Plains Sunday morning will quickly shift northeast through midday. It is unclear how this may impact destabilization later in the day. In the wake of the morning shortwave, large-scale ascent will remain nebulous. Furthermore, the upper shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest may be ill-timed with peak heating, and may lead to subsidence across the region during the afternoon in the wake of this feature. Nevertheless, some severe risk, albeit conditional, will be possible across portions of the central/southern Plains, likely focused along the surface trough/dryline from central KS into western OK and portions of western/north TX. Supercell vertical wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings, with weak capping noted just above 850 mb. Steep lapse rates above this layer will be supported by cool temperatures aloft, and MLCAPE values could climb to near 2000 J/kg. Storm coverage is uncertain, but if storms can develop and become sustained, all severe hazards will be possible. A conditional supercell environment will also exist across the Upper Midwest ahead of a surface low, though severe risk will depend on timing of the aforementioned upper shortwave trough. Given uncertainty, will introduce low severe probabilities (level 1 of 5) and trends will be monitored. ..Leitman.. 04/10/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will shift from the Great Plains to the eastern CONUS as longwave troughing shifts offshore of the Northeast on D2/Saturday. A closed upper-level low will simultaneously approach the California coastline while a mid-level shortwave trough traverses northeastward across the Great Basin and northern Great Plains. A cold front will slowly move southward across the Mid-Atlantic while a warm front lifts northeastward across the Great Plains. Surface high pressure will remain in place across the Southeast and Great Lakes. ...Portions of the Great Basin... Sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph may briefly overlap reduced RH values of 15-20% across the eastern/southern Great Basin. This may promote the potential for locally elevated fire weather concerns across portions of eastern Utah and northeastern Arizona Saturday afternoon where fuels will have been preconditioned by a couple of days of dry, breezy conditions. Elevated highlights have been withheld at this time, however, due to the potential for sporadic showers during the afternoon as well as uncertainty regarding lingering mid/high cloud cover, which may inhibit greater boundary layer mixing and thus temper RH reductions. Trends will continue to be monitored for future outlook issuances. ..Chalmers.. 04/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will shift eastward today from the eastern Great Basin into the Great Plains as longwave upper troughing shifts across the northern Great Lakes region and the Northeast. Meanwhile, a mid-level shortwave trough will progress northeastward across California and the western Great Basin while another upper trough approaches the California coastline behind it. A slow moving cold front will progress south-southeastward across the Northeast, Ohio River Valley, and central Great Plains, with surface high pressure positioned across the Southeast and Great Lakes regions. ...Portions of the Great Basin... Surface low pressure across the northern Great Basin in conjunction with high pressure across the Great Lakes/Southeast will promote a tightened pressure gradient and resultant sustained southerly surface winds of 15-25 mph across much of the eastern/southern Great Basin today. Despite increasing mid/high cloud cover, minimum RH values of 15-20% (locally down to 10%) are forecast during peak mixing this afternoon. With preconditioned, drying fuels from Thursday, this combination of winds/RH is expected to support elevated fire weather concerns today across portions of eastern Utah into northwestern Colorado. Locally critical conditions may be possible should stronger surface winds overlap with locally lower RH values, but these conditions are expected to remain brief should they materialize. Deep boundary layer mixing and modestly strong mid-level flow (25-35 kts within the 700-500 mb layer) will also support the potential for periodic gusts up to 30-35 mph across the region. ...Portions of the mid/upper Ohio River Valley... Ahead of an approaching cold front, west-southwesterly sustained winds of 10 mph (with occasional gusts of 15-20 mph) combined with RH values dropping to 30-35% are expected to overlap a region of drying and potentially receptive fuels from northeastern Kentucky/southern Ohio into northeastern West Virginia and southeastern Pennsylvania. With ERCs across this region approaching the 97th percentile, this overlap of winds/RH may support a few hours of locally elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon. A passing cold front will bring a shift to northerly winds, increasing moisture, and decreasing winds speeds later this evening, which should provide some relief to the fire environment. Coupled with low confidence in widespread sustained winds exceeding 15 mph during the afternoon, Elevated highlights have been withheld at this time. ..Chalmers.. 04/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts will be possible across portions of the central and southern Plains on Saturday. ...Southern/Central Plains... Upper ridging will be in place over the central U.S. early Saturday. A weak upper shortwave trough over the Great Basin will migrate northeast through the period, along with several other lead shortwave impulses ahead of a larger-scale western trough/upper low near the Pacific coast. This will result in deamplification of the upper ridge. Modest deep-layer southwesterly flow around 20-40 kt will overspread much of the Plains. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over Montana and eventually develop east across the northern Plains late in the period, while lee troughing extends southward across the High Plains. Increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport 50s and low 60s F dewpoints northward toward the Mid-MO Valley, and westward toward western KS/OK/TX. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the surface trough across eastern NM/western TX during the afternoon as modest large-scale ascent overspreads the region. Cloud cover will limit daytime heating, but steepening lapse rates and modestly increasing boundary-layer moisture will support MLCAPE to around 1000-1500 J/kg. Vertical shear will be weak but sufficient for at least transient organized cells capable of producing large hail. As a low-level jet increases during the evening, some consolidation of updrafts could occur and linear segments/small bows could produce locally strong wind gusts. Further north, a more conditional risk is expected across the central Plains. A warm front will lift northward across KS/NE during the afternoon and into early evening. Forecast soundings indicate capping will likely preclude much convective development within the warm sector. However, if any cells are able to develop and become sustained near the warm front, a severe risk will be possible. This scenario is uncertain, and will maintain Level 1 of 5/Marginal risk. Additionally cells are possible during the evening across parts of eastern CO/western KS/western NE near the surface trough. Locally strong gusts and hail will be possible with these storms. ...Central CA... Low-topped thunderstorms are possible in the north-central Valley vicinity during the afternoon/evening as cooling aloft and increasing ascent overspread the region ahead of an upper low over the eastern Pacific. Instability is expected to remain weak (less than 400 J/kg MLCAPE), but small hail and gusty winds may briefly occur with stronger cells. As the upper low and a surface cold front approach the central coast overnight, a line of low-topped convection could bring gusty winds as well. Severe storms are not expected at this time. ...Great Basin vicinity... Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening as a compact upper shortwave trough moves over the region. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE generally less than 500 J/kg. However, a well mixed boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles and around 30 kt southwesterly flow through 600 mb could support locally gusty winds. Overall, severe potential appears limited. ..Leitman.. 04/10/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts will be possible across portions of the central and southern Plains on Saturday. ...Southern/Central Plains... Upper ridging will be in place over the central U.S. early Saturday. A weak upper shortwave trough over the Great Basin will migrate northeast through the period, along with several other lead shortwave impulses ahead of a larger-scale western trough/upper low near the Pacific coast. This will result in deamplification of the upper ridge. Modest deep-layer southwesterly flow around 20-40 kt will overspread much of the Plains. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over Montana and eventually develop east across the northern Plains late in the period, while lee troughing extends southward across the High Plains. Increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport 50s and low 60s F dewpoints northward toward the Mid-MO Valley, and westward toward western KS/OK/TX. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the surface trough across eastern NM/western TX during the afternoon as modest large-scale ascent overspreads the region. Cloud cover will limit daytime heating, but steepening lapse rates and modestly increasing boundary-layer moisture will support MLCAPE to around 1000-1500 J/kg. Vertical shear will be weak but sufficient for at least transient organized cells capable of producing large hail. As a low-level jet increases during the evening, some consolidation of updrafts could occur and linear segments/small bows could produce locally strong wind gusts. Further north, a more conditional risk is expected across the central Plains. A warm front will lift northward across KS/NE during the afternoon and into early evening. Forecast soundings indicate capping will likely preclude much convective development within the warm sector. However, if any cells are able to develop and become sustained near the warm front, a severe risk will be possible. This scenario is uncertain, and will maintain Level 1 of 5/Marginal risk. Additionally cells are possible during the evening across parts of eastern CO/western KS/western NE near the surface trough. Locally strong gusts and hail will be possible with these storms. ...Central CA... Low-topped thunderstorms are possible in the north-central Valley vicinity during the afternoon/evening as cooling aloft and increasing ascent overspread the region ahead of an upper low over the eastern Pacific. Instability is expected to remain weak (less than 400 J/kg MLCAPE), but small hail and gusty winds may briefly occur with stronger cells. As the upper low and a surface cold front approach the central coast overnight, a line of low-topped convection could bring gusty winds as well. Severe storms are not expected at this time. ...Great Basin vicinity... Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening as a compact upper shortwave trough moves over the region. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE generally less than 500 J/kg. However, a well mixed boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles and around 30 kt southwesterly flow through 600 mb could support locally gusty winds. Overall, severe potential appears limited. ..Leitman.. 04/10/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...NORTHERN NV INTO SOUTHEAST OR/SOUTHWEST ID...AND PARTS OF CENTRAL CA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the south-central Plains into the Ozarks. Strong to locally severe storms may also occur from northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho, and also across parts of central California. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from the Great Lakes region toward New England through the period. Upstream, a mid/upper low initially offshore of California will move inland toward the Great Basin as a shortwave trough, as another mid/upper shortwave/low approaches the Pacific Coast. ...Parts of the south-central Plains into the Ozarks... In the wake of morning elevated convection, an outflow-reinforced cold front is expected to become nearly stationary this afternoon and early evening. Steep midlevel lapse rates and rather cool temperatures aloft will support MLCAPE of near/above 1500 J/kg along/south of the front, with minimal MLCINH by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon in the vicinity of the boundary across parts of southern KS/northern OK into the Ozarks, with additional development possible near the front and within a post-frontal regime across the south-central High Plains vicinity. With rather modest large-scale ascent and weak deep-layer flow forecast across the region, storm organization and duration may generally remain somewhat limited. However, more organized cells may briefly develop on an isolated basis near the boundary, where some enhancement to effective shear/SRH will be possible. Isolated large hail appears to be the most likely hazard, though localized strong/damaging gusts also cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms. ...Northern NV into southeast OR/southwest ID and central/northern CA... In response to the approaching mid/upper low and shortwave trough, scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across parts of central/northern CA into the northern Great Basin and interior Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft and rather strong diurnal heating will result in steep low/midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, despite limited low-level moisture. Midlevel flow and deep-layer shear will gradually increase with time, with the most favorable overlap of shear and instability currently expected from northern NV into southeast OR/southwest ID. Modestly organized cells/clusters and perhaps a couple of supercells may develop in this area, with an attendant threat of hail and localized severe gusts. A few strong storms may also develop across parts of the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys in California. While deep-layer shear will be somewhat less favorable compared to the northern Great Basin area, cold temperatures aloft (near/below -20C at 500 mb) may support potential for marginally severe hail with the strongest storms. Local terrain influences could also support transient cell organization/rotation and possibly a brief tornado, though this potential remains very uncertain at this time. ..Dean/Chalmers.. 04/10/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...NORTHERN NV INTO SOUTHEAST OR/SOUTHWEST ID...AND PARTS OF CENTRAL CA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the south-central Plains into the Ozarks. Strong to locally severe storms may also occur from northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho, and also across parts of central California. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from the Great Lakes region toward New England through the period. Upstream, a mid/upper low initially offshore of California will move inland toward the Great Basin as a shortwave trough, as another mid/upper shortwave/low approaches the Pacific Coast. ...Parts of the south-central Plains into the Ozarks... In the wake of morning elevated convection, an outflow-reinforced cold front is expected to become nearly stationary this afternoon and early evening. Steep midlevel lapse rates and rather cool temperatures aloft will support MLCAPE of near/above 1500 J/kg along/south of the front, with minimal MLCINH by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon in the vicinity of the boundary across parts of southern KS/northern OK into the Ozarks, with additional development possible near the front and within a post-frontal regime across the south-central High Plains vicinity. With rather modest large-scale ascent and weak deep-layer flow forecast across the region, storm organization and duration may generally remain somewhat limited. However, more organized cells may briefly develop on an isolated basis near the boundary, where some enhancement to effective shear/SRH will be possible. Isolated large hail appears to be the most likely hazard, though localized strong/damaging gusts also cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms. ...Northern NV into southeast OR/southwest ID and central/northern CA... In response to the approaching mid/upper low and shortwave trough, scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across parts of central/northern CA into the northern Great Basin and interior Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft and rather strong diurnal heating will result in steep low/midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, despite limited low-level moisture. Midlevel flow and deep-layer shear will gradually increase with time, with the most favorable overlap of shear and instability currently expected from northern NV into southeast OR/southwest ID. Modestly organized cells/clusters and perhaps a couple of supercells may develop in this area, with an attendant threat of hail and localized severe gusts. A few strong storms may also develop across parts of the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys in California. While deep-layer shear will be somewhat less favorable compared to the northern Great Basin area, cold temperatures aloft (near/below -20C at 500 mb) may support potential for marginally severe hail with the strongest storms. Local terrain influences could also support transient cell organization/rotation and possibly a brief tornado, though this potential remains very uncertain at this time. ..Dean/Chalmers.. 04/10/2026 Read more

WW 0098 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 98 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE LBL TO 15 NE DDC TO 15 WNW HUT TO 30 W BIE TO 15 NNW BIE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0372 ..CHALMERS..04/10/26 ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...TOP...DDC...GID...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 98 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC005-009-013-025-027-041-043-053-061-085-087-113-117-119-131- 143-149-159-161-169-201-100340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BARTON BROWN CLARK CLAY DICKINSON DONIPHAN ELLSWORTH GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON MCPHERSON MARSHALL MEADE NEMAHA OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE RICE RILEY SALINE WASHINGTON MOC003-005-021-087-147-100340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW ATCHISON BUCHANAN HOLT NODAWAY Read more

MD 0372 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0372 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0842 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026 Areas affected...Portions of northeast Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98... Valid 100142Z - 100345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98 continues. SUMMARY...The potential for severe winds will likely increase over the next few hours before diminishing later this evening. DISCUSSION...A transition from semi-discrete supercells to convective clusters is evident across northern KS in regional radar imagery. MRMS data shows vertically integrated ice steadily declining while velocity data from KTWS depicts a recent surge in outflow from the leading supercells. Downstream VWP observations show a steady increase in 0-2 km winds over the past hour as the nocturnal jet begins to strengthen. This hints at increasing isentropic ascent along the frontal boundary draped across northeast KS, which will continue to support an uptick in thunderstorm development in the coming hours. While severe hail will remain possible in the short term, a transition to primarily a severe wind threat is anticipated as thunderstorm coverage and cold pool amalgamation increases - especially downstream from the most organized cluster emerging over northern Riley/northwest Pottawatomie counties. This activity will likely spread east/southeastward along and north of the I-70 corridor towards the KS/MO border. East and south of here, drier low-level conditions and more meager buoyancy will likely limit the severe threat heading into the overnight hours and mitigate the need for further watches. ..Moore.. 04/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP... LAT...LON 39469738 39589711 39809668 39859648 39879617 39789506 39509498 39289513 38839586 38799617 38819643 39249743 39369749 39469738 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 98 SEVERE TSTM KS MO NE 092210Z - 100400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 98 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 510 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest into Central and Northeast Kansas Northwest Missouri Southeast Nebraska * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 510 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop early this evening. The stronger thunderstorms will likely acquire supercellular characteristics, mainly across northern portions of Kansas. Large to very large hail is possible with the stronger updrafts. A brief period for a tornado is possible this evening mainly across northern Kansas where supercells will be the preferred storm type through early evening. Severe gusts 60 to 75 mph are possible with high-based thunderstorms over southwest Kansas northeastward to where an eventual cluster of thunderstorms is likely to develop by mid to late evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north northeast of Saint Joseph MO to 25 miles west northwest of Dodge City KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25015. ...Smith Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts remain possible this evening across parts of Kansas, southeast Nebraska, and northwest Missouri. ...Central/southern Plains... Scattered strong to severe storms have developed this evening from southwest into north-central KS and far southern NE this evening, near/south of a southward-moving cold front, and along/east of a weak dryline. Despite modest low-level moisture (with warm-sector dewpoints generally in the low 50s F), steep midlevel lapse rates and relatively cold temperatures aloft are supporting MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, within a moderately sheared environment. A few relatively high-based supercells remain possible through the evening, with an attendant threat of large hail (potentially golf-ball-sized or larger) and localized severe gusts. A tornado also cannot be ruled out across north-central/northeast KS, as low-level moisture/shear gradually improve in conjunction with a nocturnal low-level jet. Otherwise, some upscale growth remains possible with time, which could result in at least an isolated severe-wind threat spreading across parts of northeast KS and northwest MO later tonight, before the threat diminishes in response to increasing MLCINH. See MCD 370 and MD 371 for more information regarding the short-term severe threat in this area. ...Northwest CA/southwest OR vicinity... A few strong storms remain possible through early evening across parts of northwest CA and southwest OR, in association with an upper low off of the northern CA coast. Any remaining severe threat should tend to diminish with time, as already weak buoyancy further decreases due to convective overturning and nocturnal stabilization. ...CA Central Valley... Isolated strong storms have recently developed across parts of the CA central valley, with a supercell noted northwest of Fresno. While deep-layer flow is rather weak, MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and modest veering of the wind profile could support a very isolated threat of gusty winds and small to marginally severe hail, though coverage and duration of the threat are expected to remain limited. ..Dean.. 04/10/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts remain possible this evening across parts of Kansas, southeast Nebraska, and northwest Missouri. ...Central/southern Plains... Scattered strong to severe storms have developed this evening from southwest into north-central KS and far southern NE this evening, near/south of a southward-moving cold front, and along/east of a weak dryline. Despite modest low-level moisture (with warm-sector dewpoints generally in the low 50s F), steep midlevel lapse rates and relatively cold temperatures aloft are supporting MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, within a moderately sheared environment. A few relatively high-based supercells remain possible through the evening, with an attendant threat of large hail (potentially golf-ball-sized or larger) and localized severe gusts. A tornado also cannot be ruled out across north-central/northeast KS, as low-level moisture/shear gradually improve in conjunction with a nocturnal low-level jet. Otherwise, some upscale growth remains possible with time, which could result in at least an isolated severe-wind threat spreading across parts of northeast KS and northwest MO later tonight, before the threat diminishes in response to increasing MLCINH. See MCD 370 and MD 371 for more information regarding the short-term severe threat in this area. ...Northwest CA/southwest OR vicinity... A few strong storms remain possible through early evening across parts of northwest CA and southwest OR, in association with an upper low off of the northern CA coast. Any remaining severe threat should tend to diminish with time, as already weak buoyancy further decreases due to convective overturning and nocturnal stabilization. ...CA Central Valley... Isolated strong storms have recently developed across parts of the CA central valley, with a supercell noted northwest of Fresno. While deep-layer flow is rather weak, MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and modest veering of the wind profile could support a very isolated threat of gusty winds and small to marginally severe hail, though coverage and duration of the threat are expected to remain limited. ..Dean.. 04/10/2026 Read more

WW 0098 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 98 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE LBL TO 15 NE DDC TO 25 W RSL TO 45 NNE RSL TO 30 NNW CNK TO 20 NW BIE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0370 ..MOORE..04/10/26 ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...TOP...DDC...GID...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 98 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC005-009-013-025-027-029-041-043-047-053-057-061-085-087-089- 097-105-113-117-119-123-131-143-145-149-157-159-161-165-167-169- 185-201-100140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BARTON BROWN CLARK CLAY CLOUD DICKINSON DONIPHAN EDWARDS ELLSWORTH FORD GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON JEWELL KIOWA LINCOLN MCPHERSON MARSHALL MEADE MITCHELL NEMAHA OTTAWA PAWNEE POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC RICE RILEY RUSH RUSSELL SALINE STAFFORD WASHINGTON MOC003-005-021-087-147-100140- MO Read more

MD 0370 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98... FOR FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0370 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026 Areas affected...Far southern Nebraska and portions of northern Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98... Valid 092333Z - 100130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98 continues. SUMMARY...The potential for severe hail and wind will continue to increase across north-central to northeast Kansas over the next couple of hours as thunderstorm coverage increases and clustering occurs. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES IR and radar trends across far northern KS and along the KS/NE border show an uptick in thunderstorm coverage amid a localized increase in low-level ascent driven by a combination of strengthening isentropic ascent (associated with a modest uptick in 0-3 km southerly winds per regional VWPs) and forcing along a localized southward surge of a frontal boundary (noted in KUEX reflectivity). More isolated developing supercells are also noted to the north of I-70, though somewhat weaker ascent away from the mesoscale boundaries has resulted in a more gradual intensification thus far. Regardless, based on recent RAP forecast soundings modified by local surface observations, MLCAPE values to the south of the primary synoptic boundary are likely between 1500-2000 J/kg downstream of the developing cells/clusters. With effective bulk shear values ranging 35-40 knots, the maintenance of discrete and semi-discrete supercells appears likely over the next hour or so with an attendant threat for severe hail. Hail stones between 1.5 and 1.75 inches in diameter have been recently noted with some of this activity, but the thermodynamic and kinematic environment appears supportive of hail up to 2 to 2.5 inches as along as discrete storm modes can be maintained. With time, eastward storm propagation and strengthening ascent at the terminus of an increasing low-level jet will promote additional thunderstorm development. High cloud bases near 2 km atop a somewhat deep/dry boundary layer are supporting strong downbursts per regional velocity data and live web cams. This trend suggests that convective outflows may be fairly widespread, and coupled with increasing ascent/storm coverage, will likely result in clustering and an increasing wind threat heading into the late evening hours downstream across northeast KS. ..Moore.. 04/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... LAT...LON 38899849 39009874 39279880 39869869 40049856 40149823 40179583 39989557 39699557 39269578 38999609 38979655 38859817 38899849 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0098 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 98 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE LBL TO 15 NE DDC TO 35 NNW RSL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0370 ..CHALMERS..04/09/26 ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...TOP...DDC...GID...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 98 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC005-009-013-025-027-029-041-043-047-053-057-061-085-087-089- 097-105-113-117-119-123-131-141-143-145-149-157-159-161-165-167- 169-185-201-100040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BARTON BROWN CLARK CLAY CLOUD DICKINSON DONIPHAN EDWARDS ELLSWORTH FORD GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON JEWELL KIOWA LINCOLN MCPHERSON MARSHALL MEADE MITCHELL NEMAHA OSBORNE OTTAWA PAWNEE POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC RICE RILEY RUSH RUSSELL SALINE STAFFORD WASHINGTON MOC003-005-021-087-147-100040- Read more

MD 0371 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0371 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026 Areas affected...portions of southwestern and central Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98... Valid 092338Z - 100115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98 continues. SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms will continue to bring a risk for severe hazards across the southwestern portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98 over the next 2-3 hours. Severe wind gusts are the primary threat, with large hail also possible in central Kansas. DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms have developed along/ahead of a dryline analyzed just west/northwest of Dodge City, Kansas. Latest mesoanalysis depicts surface temperatures in the low-80s F with dewpoints in the upper 40s, which is contributing to a deep, well-mixed boundary layer across the region. High LCLs (~3 km AGL), dry sub-cloud layers with steep low-level lapse rates, and DCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg will continue to support the potential for severe wind gusts to 55-60 kts, especially with any stronger storm clusters that can become better organized. Steep mid-level lapse rates (8-9 C/km per latest mesoanalysis) and supercell wind profiles (evident in the DDC VAD profiles) will also support a threat for large hail with stronger, more sustained convection. A gradual increase in low-level stabilization owing to nocturnal cooling is then expected to yield a decreasing severe threat after the next 2-3 hours. ..Chalmers.. 04/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 38389768 37869819 37389869 37059932 36999969 37030033 37450052 37960006 38599948 38919906 39009863 39019841 38999793 38839759 38389768 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0512 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... On Day 3/Saturday through Day 4/Sunday, an upper-level low is forecast to move onshore of the northern California coast as an upper-level ridge strengthens over the central and eastern CONUS. A lee-surface low ejects off the Rockies on Day 5/Monday, slowly shifting across the Midwest and Great Lakes region by Day 7/Wednesday. This scenario is likely to result in multiple days of precipitation across much of the western and central US, which would temporarily dampen fire weather threats. Continued upper-level ridging through Day 6/Tuesday across the eastern CONUS should promote above normal temperatures and drying conditions for much of the region, though increased chances of precipitation return towards the middle of next week as the upper trough shifts east. ...Ohio River Valley - Day 4/Sunday... Increasing potential for 10-15 mph southerly winds and 30-40 percent RH will present potential fire weather concerns across northeastern AR into portions of the Ohio River Valley. Parts of this region range from D2-D4 drought, and given widespread observed ERCs above the 90th percentile, 40 percent probabilities for Critical fire weather have been introduced. The expanse of the drawn area may be adjusted in future outlooks as guidance evolves the northward extent of gulf moisture advection. ...Southern/Central Plains - Day 4/Sunday through Day 6/Tuesday... Fire weather conditions may return on Day 4/Sunday as a more potent shortwave moves across the High Plains. With uncertainty in precipitation accumulation and the extent of wetting rainfall earlier in the forecast period, probabilities have been withheld on Day 4/Sunday for now. Beneath the large upper trough, tight surface pressure gradients Day 5/Monday-Day 6/Tuesday will further enhance dry and windy conditions behind the dryline. 40 percent probabilities of Critical fire weather have been introduced on both days to account for these concerns. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Stearns.. 04/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0512 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... On Day 3/Saturday through Day 4/Sunday, an upper-level low is forecast to move onshore of the northern California coast as an upper-level ridge strengthens over the central and eastern CONUS. A lee-surface low ejects off the Rockies on Day 5/Monday, slowly shifting across the Midwest and Great Lakes region by Day 7/Wednesday. This scenario is likely to result in multiple days of precipitation across much of the western and central US, which would temporarily dampen fire weather threats. Continued upper-level ridging through Day 6/Tuesday across the eastern CONUS should promote above normal temperatures and drying conditions for much of the region, though increased chances of precipitation return towards the middle of next week as the upper trough shifts east. ...Ohio River Valley - Day 4/Sunday... Increasing potential for 10-15 mph southerly winds and 30-40 percent RH will present potential fire weather concerns across northeastern AR into portions of the Ohio River Valley. Parts of this region range from D2-D4 drought, and given widespread observed ERCs above the 90th percentile, 40 percent probabilities for Critical fire weather have been introduced. The expanse of the drawn area may be adjusted in future outlooks as guidance evolves the northward extent of gulf moisture advection. ...Southern/Central Plains - Day 4/Sunday through Day 6/Tuesday... Fire weather conditions may return on Day 4/Sunday as a more potent shortwave moves across the High Plains. With uncertainty in precipitation accumulation and the extent of wetting rainfall earlier in the forecast period, probabilities have been withheld on Day 4/Sunday for now. Beneath the large upper trough, tight surface pressure gradients Day 5/Monday-Day 6/Tuesday will further enhance dry and windy conditions behind the dryline. 40 percent probabilities of Critical fire weather have been introduced on both days to account for these concerns. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Stearns.. 04/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0512 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... On Day 3/Saturday through Day 4/Sunday, an upper-level low is forecast to move onshore of the northern California coast as an upper-level ridge strengthens over the central and eastern CONUS. A lee-surface low ejects off the Rockies on Day 5/Monday, slowly shifting across the Midwest and Great Lakes region by Day 7/Wednesday. This scenario is likely to result in multiple days of precipitation across much of the western and central US, which would temporarily dampen fire weather threats. Continued upper-level ridging through Day 6/Tuesday across the eastern CONUS should promote above normal temperatures and drying conditions for much of the region, though increased chances of precipitation return towards the middle of next week as the upper trough shifts east. ...Ohio River Valley - Day 4/Sunday... Increasing potential for 10-15 mph southerly winds and 30-40 percent RH will present potential fire weather concerns across northeastern AR into portions of the Ohio River Valley. Parts of this region range from D2-D4 drought, and given widespread observed ERCs above the 90th percentile, 40 percent probabilities for Critical fire weather have been introduced. The expanse of the drawn area may be adjusted in future outlooks as guidance evolves the northward extent of gulf moisture advection. ...Southern/Central Plains - Day 4/Sunday through Day 6/Tuesday... Fire weather conditions may return on Day 4/Sunday as a more potent shortwave moves across the High Plains. With uncertainty in precipitation accumulation and the extent of wetting rainfall earlier in the forecast period, probabilities have been withheld on Day 4/Sunday for now. Beneath the large upper trough, tight surface pressure gradients Day 5/Monday-Day 6/Tuesday will further enhance dry and windy conditions behind the dryline. 40 percent probabilities of Critical fire weather have been introduced on both days to account for these concerns. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Stearns.. 04/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more