SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026
Valid 091700Z - 101200Z
...Morning Update...
No changes were made to the previous forecast. Poor overnight
humidity recoveries over the northeastern NM plains and current RH
hovering around 20 percent are expected to maintain Elevated fire
weather conditions this afternoon as southwesterly winds increase to
15 mph across the area. Forecast soundings portray a dry sub-cloud
layer beneath increased mid-level moisture, supportive of strong and
erratic wind gusts with any thunderstorms that manage to develop. In
addition to isolated convection, very sparse lightning ignitions
cannot be ruled out.
In parts of the Northeast, morning surface observations are
reporting widespread RH of 25-35 percent with increasing southerly
sustained winds up to 10 mph. Locally elevated fire weather is
possible this afternoon as winds are forecast to increase to 15 mph
(locally higher within the Hudson/Champlain Valleys). However,
increasing mid and high level clouds may dampen the fire
environment, and given questionable fuel receptivity, elevated
highlights have been withheld.
See the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Stearns.. 04/09/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026/
...Synopsis...
Largely zonal flow will persist across much of the Rockies today,
with upper-level ridging across much of the Intermountain West and a
closed upper-level low approaching the northern California
coastline. At the surface, a frontal boundary positioned across the
central Great Plains will shift northward as a warm front today
before moving back southward as cold front tonight. A trailing
dryline will also extend southward across the central/southern High
Plains.
...Portions of the southern High Plains...
A weak surface low positioned over southeastern Colorado is forecast
to favor sustained southwesterly winds around 15 mph across portions
of the southern High Plains behind the dryline. While passing
mid/high clouds may temper the overall fire environment to some
extent, minimum relative humidities are forecast in the 15-20% range
during peak mixing. With dry fuels across the region, this should
promote at least a few hours of elevated fire weather concerns for
northeastern New Mexico, the northwestern Texas Panhandle, and the
western Oklahoma Panhandle.
Increased mid-level moisture atop deep, dry boundary layers may also
support the development of isolated, high-based convection across
this region this afternoon. While little precipitation is expected
with any storms that do develop due to PWATs on the order of a half
inch or less and LCLs approaching 4 km AGL, erratic downburst winds
will be possible. With forecast soundings indicating the presence of
50-150 J/kg MLCAPE, a few lightning ignitions cannot be ruled out.
However, given the very isolated nature of storm development and the
potential for wetting rainfall on D2/Friday, dry thunderstorm
probabilities have been withheld.
...Portions of the Great Basin/Southwest...
Southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph (locally higher in terrain favored
areas) are forecast to coincide with low RH of 15-20% across much of
the southern Great Basin/Southwest. This combination of winds/RH may
promote locally elevated fire weather concerns, but recent cooler
weather, precipitation, and resultant marginal fuels are expected to
preclude widespread fire weather concerns at this time.
...Portions of the Northeast...
Surface high pressure shifting offshore of the Northeast coupled
with low pressure in the vicinity of James Bay will promote a
tightened pressure gradient and sustained 10-15 mph southerly winds
across portions of the Northeast this afternoon (locally higher
within the Hudson/Champlain/Connecticut River Valleys). While
minimum RH values are forecast around 25-35%, questionable fuels
preclude any introduction of Elevated highlights. This combination
of weather conditions may support fire spread within pockets of
drier fine fuels, however.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026
Valid 091300Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND LOWER/MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are
expected late this afternoon and evening across Kansas, southeast
Nebraska into northwest Missouri and southwest Iowa. Isolated severe
storms may also occur across the south-central High Plains and
northern California/western Oregon.
...Central Plains and Lower/Middle Missouri Valley...
A frontal zone will focus and shift northward toward across Kansas
toward the Kansas/Nebraska and Iowa/Missouri border vicinities
today, before gradually accelerating southeastward tonight. The
region will be influenced later today by a secondary shortwave
trough digging southeastward over the northern Plains, with the
persistence of cyclonic and somewhat strengthening mid/upper-level
flow. On the nose of south-southwesterly lower tropospheric winds,
low-level moisture will diurnally increase along/south of the front,
offset by ample mixing across Kansas, resulting in surface dewpoints
mainly in the lower/middle 50s F into peak heating. Beneath very
steep mid-level lapse rates, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE values are
expected near/south of the front.
After some early day thunderstorms, more intense surface-based
thunderstorm development should occur as early as 22-23z/5-6pm CDT
near the boundary including portions of northern Kansas/southeast
Nebraska to the Iowa/Missouri border region, with other more
isolated and higher-based storms possible across western Kansas and
the nearby High Plains in vicinity of the lee trough/surface low.
Moderately strong westerlies will reside along/north of the
boundary, with 40+ kt effective shear supporting supercells capable
of large hail, potentially some in excess of 2 inches in diameter.
Some tornado potential may exist mainly across northeast Kansas/far
southeast Nebraska and northwest Missouri near the boundary, but
this overall potential will tend to be mitigated by modest-caliber
moisture and the influence of diurnal mixing. Severe winds are also
possible into evening as storms tend to cluster and spread/increase
east-southeastward during the evening, although the modest early
season moisture and nocturnal influences will lead to a diminished
intensity trend into late evening.
...Northern California/western Oregon...
As the upper-level low approaches the West Coast, forcing for ascent
will overspread portions of northern California into southern Oregon
with scattered thunderstorm development expected into afternoon.
Sufficient moisture and CAPE will exist inland beneath strengthening
deep-layer southwesterly winds ahead of the trough. As lapse rates
steepen and flow aloft increases, storms may be capable of strong to
severe wind gusts and possibly some hail.
..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/09/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026
Valid 091300Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND LOWER/MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are
expected late this afternoon and evening across Kansas, southeast
Nebraska into northwest Missouri and southwest Iowa. Isolated severe
storms may also occur across the south-central High Plains and
northern California/western Oregon.
...Central Plains and Lower/Middle Missouri Valley...
A frontal zone will focus and shift northward toward across Kansas
toward the Kansas/Nebraska and Iowa/Missouri border vicinities
today, before gradually accelerating southeastward tonight. The
region will be influenced later today by a secondary shortwave
trough digging southeastward over the northern Plains, with the
persistence of cyclonic and somewhat strengthening mid/upper-level
flow. On the nose of south-southwesterly lower tropospheric winds,
low-level moisture will diurnally increase along/south of the front,
offset by ample mixing across Kansas, resulting in surface dewpoints
mainly in the lower/middle 50s F into peak heating. Beneath very
steep mid-level lapse rates, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE values are
expected near/south of the front.
After some early day thunderstorms, more intense surface-based
thunderstorm development should occur as early as 22-23z/5-6pm CDT
near the boundary including portions of northern Kansas/southeast
Nebraska to the Iowa/Missouri border region, with other more
isolated and higher-based storms possible across western Kansas and
the nearby High Plains in vicinity of the lee trough/surface low.
Moderately strong westerlies will reside along/north of the
boundary, with 40+ kt effective shear supporting supercells capable
of large hail, potentially some in excess of 2 inches in diameter.
Some tornado potential may exist mainly across northeast Kansas/far
southeast Nebraska and northwest Missouri near the boundary, but
this overall potential will tend to be mitigated by modest-caliber
moisture and the influence of diurnal mixing. Severe winds are also
possible into evening as storms tend to cluster and spread/increase
east-southeastward during the evening, although the modest early
season moisture and nocturnal influences will lead to a diminished
intensity trend into late evening.
...Northern California/western Oregon...
As the upper-level low approaches the West Coast, forcing for ascent
will overspread portions of northern California into southern Oregon
with scattered thunderstorm development expected into afternoon.
Sufficient moisture and CAPE will exist inland beneath strengthening
deep-layer southwesterly winds ahead of the trough. As lapse rates
steepen and flow aloft increases, storms may be capable of strong to
severe wind gusts and possibly some hail.
..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/09/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026
Valid 091300Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND LOWER/MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are
expected late this afternoon and evening across Kansas, southeast
Nebraska into northwest Missouri and southwest Iowa. Isolated severe
storms may also occur across the south-central High Plains and
northern California/western Oregon.
...Central Plains and Lower/Middle Missouri Valley...
A frontal zone will focus and shift northward toward across Kansas
toward the Kansas/Nebraska and Iowa/Missouri border vicinities
today, before gradually accelerating southeastward tonight. The
region will be influenced later today by a secondary shortwave
trough digging southeastward over the northern Plains, with the
persistence of cyclonic and somewhat strengthening mid/upper-level
flow. On the nose of south-southwesterly lower tropospheric winds,
low-level moisture will diurnally increase along/south of the front,
offset by ample mixing across Kansas, resulting in surface dewpoints
mainly in the lower/middle 50s F into peak heating. Beneath very
steep mid-level lapse rates, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE values are
expected near/south of the front.
After some early day thunderstorms, more intense surface-based
thunderstorm development should occur as early as 22-23z/5-6pm CDT
near the boundary including portions of northern Kansas/southeast
Nebraska to the Iowa/Missouri border region, with other more
isolated and higher-based storms possible across western Kansas and
the nearby High Plains in vicinity of the lee trough/surface low.
Moderately strong westerlies will reside along/north of the
boundary, with 40+ kt effective shear supporting supercells capable
of large hail, potentially some in excess of 2 inches in diameter.
Some tornado potential may exist mainly across northeast Kansas/far
southeast Nebraska and northwest Missouri near the boundary, but
this overall potential will tend to be mitigated by modest-caliber
moisture and the influence of diurnal mixing. Severe winds are also
possible into evening as storms tend to cluster and spread/increase
east-southeastward during the evening, although the modest early
season moisture and nocturnal influences will lead to a diminished
intensity trend into late evening.
...Northern California/western Oregon...
As the upper-level low approaches the West Coast, forcing for ascent
will overspread portions of northern California into southern Oregon
with scattered thunderstorm development expected into afternoon.
Sufficient moisture and CAPE will exist inland beneath strengthening
deep-layer southwesterly winds ahead of the trough. As lapse rates
steepen and flow aloft increases, storms may be capable of strong to
severe wind gusts and possibly some hail.
..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/09/2026
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6...
On Sunday, southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much
of the nation. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from
the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Much
of this corridor is forecast to become moderately unstable by
afternoon. The greatest potential for severe storms will likely be
in the southern and central Plains, where some solutions have a
subtle shortwave trough. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse
rates will be favorable for supercells with large hail and severe
wind gusts.
Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually strengthen across the
central U.S. on Monday. In response moisture advection will continue
in the Great Plains. By Monday afternoon, moderate instability
should be in place from north Texas northward into the upper
Mississippi Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected
to develop across this airmass Monday afternoon and evening.
Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will again be
favorable for severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind
gusts. A tornado threat may also develop.
On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into
the southern Rockies, as an associated mid-level jet streak ejects
northeastward across the southern High Plains. A moderately unstable
airmass will likely be in place by afternoon from the southern
Plains northeastward into mid to upper Mississippi Valley and
southern Great Lakes. Strong deep-layer shear is forecast over the
southern and central Plains, where a substantial severe threat will
be possible. Supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes
are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening. An upgrade will be
possible across parts of the threat area, once confidence increases
on the timing of the ejecting trough.
...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8...
The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the
central U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward
through the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. Moderate instability is
forecast to develop ahead of much of the front. Thunderstorms that
form in areas that destabilize sufficiently could have a severe
threat. The severe potential will likely continue into Thursday, as
the front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley.
However, model spread concerning the position of the front and
timing of the trough increases substantially toward mid week,
suggesting a lot of uncertainty exists at this extended range in the
period.
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6...
On Sunday, southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much
of the nation. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from
the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Much
of this corridor is forecast to become moderately unstable by
afternoon. The greatest potential for severe storms will likely be
in the southern and central Plains, where some solutions have a
subtle shortwave trough. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse
rates will be favorable for supercells with large hail and severe
wind gusts.
Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually strengthen across the
central U.S. on Monday. In response moisture advection will continue
in the Great Plains. By Monday afternoon, moderate instability
should be in place from north Texas northward into the upper
Mississippi Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected
to develop across this airmass Monday afternoon and evening.
Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will again be
favorable for severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind
gusts. A tornado threat may also develop.
On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into
the southern Rockies, as an associated mid-level jet streak ejects
northeastward across the southern High Plains. A moderately unstable
airmass will likely be in place by afternoon from the southern
Plains northeastward into mid to upper Mississippi Valley and
southern Great Lakes. Strong deep-layer shear is forecast over the
southern and central Plains, where a substantial severe threat will
be possible. Supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes
are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening. An upgrade will be
possible across parts of the threat area, once confidence increases
on the timing of the ejecting trough.
...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8...
The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the
central U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward
through the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. Moderate instability is
forecast to develop ahead of much of the front. Thunderstorms that
form in areas that destabilize sufficiently could have a severe
threat. The severe potential will likely continue into Thursday, as
the front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley.
However, model spread concerning the position of the front and
timing of the trough increases substantially toward mid week,
suggesting a lot of uncertainty exists at this extended range in the
period.
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be
possible on Saturday across parts of west Texas and far eastern New
Mexico. A marginal severe threat will also be possible across parts
of the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley.
...Southern High Plains...
Mid-level southwesterly flow will gradually strengthen across the
south-central U.S. on Saturday, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough
moves northeastward into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a
moist airmass will be in place over much of southern and central
Plains, with surface dewpoints from the mid 50s to mid 60s F. A
surface trough over far eastern New Mexico will be a focus for
convective development as surface temperatures warm during the day.
Large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough will support
scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening over much
of the southern High Plains. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1200
to 1500 J/kg range over west Texas, where 0-3 km lapse rates should
reach 7.5 and 8 C/km in the late afternoon. This will be favorable
for severe wind gusts. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be
between 30 and 40 knots over much of the southern High Plains
suggesting that supercells with large hail will be possible. Severe
threat coverage may peak in the early to mid evening, especially if
an MCS can organize over parts of west-central Texas.
...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
An upper-level ridge will move eastward into the mid to upper
Mississippi Valley Saturday afternoon, as southwesterly mid-level
flow becomes established over much of the north-central U.S. At the
surface, a trough will deepen during the day across the central High
Plains, with moisture advection continuing over the central Plains
and Missouri Valley. Weak instability is expected to develop over
much of this airmass by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will
remain limited, isolated thunderstorms will be possible in areas
where low-level convergence and surface heating become maximized.
Model forecasts suggest that enough deep-layer shear will be in
place for a marginal severe threat, with hail and isolated severe
gusts possible.
..Broyles.. 04/09/2026
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be
possible on Saturday across parts of west Texas and far eastern New
Mexico. A marginal severe threat will also be possible across parts
of the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley.
...Southern High Plains...
Mid-level southwesterly flow will gradually strengthen across the
south-central U.S. on Saturday, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough
moves northeastward into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a
moist airmass will be in place over much of southern and central
Plains, with surface dewpoints from the mid 50s to mid 60s F. A
surface trough over far eastern New Mexico will be a focus for
convective development as surface temperatures warm during the day.
Large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough will support
scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening over much
of the southern High Plains. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1200
to 1500 J/kg range over west Texas, where 0-3 km lapse rates should
reach 7.5 and 8 C/km in the late afternoon. This will be favorable
for severe wind gusts. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be
between 30 and 40 knots over much of the southern High Plains
suggesting that supercells with large hail will be possible. Severe
threat coverage may peak in the early to mid evening, especially if
an MCS can organize over parts of west-central Texas.
...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
An upper-level ridge will move eastward into the mid to upper
Mississippi Valley Saturday afternoon, as southwesterly mid-level
flow becomes established over much of the north-central U.S. At the
surface, a trough will deepen during the day across the central High
Plains, with moisture advection continuing over the central Plains
and Missouri Valley. Weak instability is expected to develop over
much of this airmass by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will
remain limited, isolated thunderstorms will be possible in areas
where low-level convergence and surface heating become maximized.
Model forecasts suggest that enough deep-layer shear will be in
place for a marginal severe threat, with hail and isolated severe
gusts possible.
..Broyles.. 04/09/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...Synopsis...
A large upper-level trough approaches the California coast on
D2/Friday as another upper trough traverses the Great Lakes into the
Northeast. Simultaneously, upper ridging will persist across the
Rockies and eastern Great Basin, with zonal flow continuing across
the Great Plains. At the surface, a slow moving cold front will
progress southeastward across the Ohio River Valley and Northeast
with high pressure building into the Great Lakes/Midwest.
...Portions of the Great Basin...
A tightened surface pressure gradient will favor sustained southerly
winds of 15-25 mph across much of the eastern/southern Great Basin
on D2/Friday. Despite some mid/high cloud cover, RH values are
forecast to fall to 15-20% (locally down to 10%) during peak mixing
Friday afternoon. With preconditioned, drying fuels from
D1/Thursday, this combination of winds and RH is expected to support
elevated fire weather conditions across much of eastern Utah into
west-central/northwestern Colorado. Deep boundary layer mixing and
modestly strong mid-level flow (25-35 kts within the 700-500 mb
layer) will also support the potential for occasional gusts to 35
mph across this region. Expected precipitation arrival on Saturday
may provide relief to any ongoing or new fire starts.
..Chalmers.. 04/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...Synopsis...
A large upper-level trough approaches the California coast on
D2/Friday as another upper trough traverses the Great Lakes into the
Northeast. Simultaneously, upper ridging will persist across the
Rockies and eastern Great Basin, with zonal flow continuing across
the Great Plains. At the surface, a slow moving cold front will
progress southeastward across the Ohio River Valley and Northeast
with high pressure building into the Great Lakes/Midwest.
...Portions of the Great Basin...
A tightened surface pressure gradient will favor sustained southerly
winds of 15-25 mph across much of the eastern/southern Great Basin
on D2/Friday. Despite some mid/high cloud cover, RH values are
forecast to fall to 15-20% (locally down to 10%) during peak mixing
Friday afternoon. With preconditioned, drying fuels from
D1/Thursday, this combination of winds and RH is expected to support
elevated fire weather conditions across much of eastern Utah into
west-central/northwestern Colorado. Deep boundary layer mixing and
modestly strong mid-level flow (25-35 kts within the 700-500 mb
layer) will also support the potential for occasional gusts to 35
mph across this region. Expected precipitation arrival on Saturday
may provide relief to any ongoing or new fire starts.
..Chalmers.. 04/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis...
Largely zonal flow will persist across much of the Rockies today,
with upper-level ridging across much of the Intermountain West and a
closed upper-level low approaching the northern California
coastline. At the surface, a frontal boundary positioned across the
central Great Plains will shift northward as a warm front today
before moving back southward as cold front tonight. A trailing
dryline will also extend southward across the central/southern High
Plains.
...Portions of the southern High Plains...
A weak surface low positioned over southeastern Colorado is forecast
to favor sustained southwesterly winds around 15 mph across portions
of the southern High Plains behind the dryline. While passing
mid/high clouds may temper the overall fire environment to some
extent, minimum relative humidities are forecast in the 15-20% range
during peak mixing. With dry fuels across the region, this should
promote at least a few hours of elevated fire weather concerns for
northeastern New Mexico, the northwestern Texas Panhandle, and the
western Oklahoma Panhandle.
Increased mid-level moisture atop deep, dry boundary layers may also
support the development of isolated, high-based convection across
this region this afternoon. While little precipitation is expected
with any storms that do develop due to PWATs on the order of a half
inch or less and LCLs approaching 4 km AGL, erratic downburst winds
will be possible. With forecast soundings indicating the presence of
50-150 J/kg MLCAPE, a few lightning ignitions cannot be ruled out.
However, given the very isolated nature of storm development and the
potential for wetting rainfall on D2/Friday, dry thunderstorm
probabilities have been withheld.
...Portions of the Great Basin/Southwest...
Southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph (locally higher in terrain favored
areas) are forecast to coincide with low RH of 15-20% across much of
the southern Great Basin/Southwest. This combination of winds/RH may
promote locally elevated fire weather concerns, but recent cooler
weather, precipitation, and resultant marginal fuels are expected to
preclude widespread fire weather concerns at this time.
...Portions of the Northeast...
Surface high pressure shifting offshore of the Northeast coupled
with low pressure in the vicinity of James Bay will promote a
tightened pressure gradient and sustained 10-15 mph southerly winds
across portions of the Northeast this afternoon (locally higher
within the Hudson/Champlain/Connecticut River Valleys). While
minimum RH values are forecast around 25-35%, questionable fuels
preclude any introduction of Elevated highlights. This combination
of weather conditions may support fire spread within pockets of
drier fine fuels, however.
..Chalmers.. 04/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis...
Largely zonal flow will persist across much of the Rockies today,
with upper-level ridging across much of the Intermountain West and a
closed upper-level low approaching the northern California
coastline. At the surface, a frontal boundary positioned across the
central Great Plains will shift northward as a warm front today
before moving back southward as cold front tonight. A trailing
dryline will also extend southward across the central/southern High
Plains.
...Portions of the southern High Plains...
A weak surface low positioned over southeastern Colorado is forecast
to favor sustained southwesterly winds around 15 mph across portions
of the southern High Plains behind the dryline. While passing
mid/high clouds may temper the overall fire environment to some
extent, minimum relative humidities are forecast in the 15-20% range
during peak mixing. With dry fuels across the region, this should
promote at least a few hours of elevated fire weather concerns for
northeastern New Mexico, the northwestern Texas Panhandle, and the
western Oklahoma Panhandle.
Increased mid-level moisture atop deep, dry boundary layers may also
support the development of isolated, high-based convection across
this region this afternoon. While little precipitation is expected
with any storms that do develop due to PWATs on the order of a half
inch or less and LCLs approaching 4 km AGL, erratic downburst winds
will be possible. With forecast soundings indicating the presence of
50-150 J/kg MLCAPE, a few lightning ignitions cannot be ruled out.
However, given the very isolated nature of storm development and the
potential for wetting rainfall on D2/Friday, dry thunderstorm
probabilities have been withheld.
...Portions of the Great Basin/Southwest...
Southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph (locally higher in terrain favored
areas) are forecast to coincide with low RH of 15-20% across much of
the southern Great Basin/Southwest. This combination of winds/RH may
promote locally elevated fire weather concerns, but recent cooler
weather, precipitation, and resultant marginal fuels are expected to
preclude widespread fire weather concerns at this time.
...Portions of the Northeast...
Surface high pressure shifting offshore of the Northeast coupled
with low pressure in the vicinity of James Bay will promote a
tightened pressure gradient and sustained 10-15 mph southerly winds
across portions of the Northeast this afternoon (locally higher
within the Hudson/Champlain/Connecticut River Valleys). While
minimum RH values are forecast around 25-35%, questionable fuels
preclude any introduction of Elevated highlights. This combination
of weather conditions may support fire spread within pockets of
drier fine fuels, however.
..Chalmers.. 04/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be
possible on Friday over parts of the southern and central Plains
eastward into the Ozarks.
...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks...
An upper-level ridge will move through the Rockies on Friday, as
mid-level flow remains westerly across much of the Great Plains and
Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance slowly
southward to near the Kansas and Oklahoma state-line by midday.
Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence
near the front will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development in the afternoon and evening. Surface dewpoints in the
lower 60s F will contribute to a pocket of instability near the
front in the afternoon, with MLCAPE forecast to peak around 1500
J/kg. In addition, deep-layer shear is forecast to be around 30
knots near the front with low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 8
C/km range. This environment should be sufficient for an isolated
severe threat. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary
threats.
..Broyles.. 04/09/2026
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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be
possible on Friday over parts of the southern and central Plains
eastward into the Ozarks.
...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks...
An upper-level ridge will move through the Rockies on Friday, as
mid-level flow remains westerly across much of the Great Plains and
Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance slowly
southward to near the Kansas and Oklahoma state-line by midday.
Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence
near the front will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development in the afternoon and evening. Surface dewpoints in the
lower 60s F will contribute to a pocket of instability near the
front in the afternoon, with MLCAPE forecast to peak around 1500
J/kg. In addition, deep-layer shear is forecast to be around 30
knots near the front with low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 8
C/km range. This environment should be sufficient for an isolated
severe threat. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary
threats.
..Broyles.. 04/09/2026
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Areas of hail and strong wind gusts are expected this afternoon and
evening in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley westward into
Kansas. Locally very large hail is possible.
...Synopsis...
The upper-level pattern across the US today will consist of a
deepening trough across the Western US with enhanced westerly flow
extending across the central/northern US within the base of a
broader upper-low across portions of Canada. Within the broad area
of westerly flow, several disturbances will rotate across the
northern Plains into the Great Lakes Region.
At the surface, a warm front will lift northward through the day
across the central Plains, extending as far north as southern NE/IA.
As a surface high builds to the north across the Dakotas, this
boundary will sag southward as a cold front through the late
afternoon/evening. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected
along this east/west oriented boundary and as well across the
dryline further west into the OK/TX Panhandles. The primary threat
will be for large to very large hail and damaging wind. A more
isolated risk for large hail will extend southward across the
dryline into western Kansas/OK/TX Panhandles.
...Central Plains...
South of the aforementioned boundary across central KS into
southeastern NE, low to mid-50s dew points in combination with
strong daytime heating will yield moderate MLCAPE values around
1000-1500 J/kg. Thunderstorm activity should develop along the warm
front around 18z and increase with the incoming upper-level wave and
cooling aloft. Forecast soundings along and south of the boundary in
Kansas depict steep low to mid-level lapse rates (7-8 C/km) and deep
layer shear around 40 kts, supportive of supercells capable of large
to very large hail(some 2+ inches in diameter)and severe wind. The
Slight was extended southward into central Kansas to account for
potential for development into this region and continuation of the
large to very large hail threat.
With west to northwest winds aloft, all these storms may eventually
merge into the evening, propagating southeastward across much of
eastern KS into northwest MO. The warm boundary layer, combined with
cold downdraft material, will likely support scattered damaging
gusts.
...Northern California/Oregon Coasts...
As the upper-level low approaches the West Coast, forcing for ascent
will overspread portions of northern California into southern Oregon
with scattered thunderstorm development expected by the late
morning/afternoon. Sufficient moisture and MLCAPE will extend inland
overlapping deep layer shear 20-25 kts and steep low to mid-level
lapse rates to support potential for strong to severe wind gusts. As
such, a 5% wind area was introduced with this outlook to cover this
potential. Some instances of small hail will also be possible, owing
to steep lapse rates and cooling temperatures aloft.
..Thornton/Chalmers.. 04/09/2026
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Areas of hail and strong wind gusts are expected this afternoon and
evening in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley westward into
Kansas. Locally very large hail is possible.
...Synopsis...
The upper-level pattern across the US today will consist of a
deepening trough across the Western US with enhanced westerly flow
extending across the central/northern US within the base of a
broader upper-low across portions of Canada. Within the broad area
of westerly flow, several disturbances will rotate across the
northern Plains into the Great Lakes Region.
At the surface, a warm front will lift northward through the day
across the central Plains, extending as far north as southern NE/IA.
As a surface high builds to the north across the Dakotas, this
boundary will sag southward as a cold front through the late
afternoon/evening. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected
along this east/west oriented boundary and as well across the
dryline further west into the OK/TX Panhandles. The primary threat
will be for large to very large hail and damaging wind. A more
isolated risk for large hail will extend southward across the
dryline into western Kansas/OK/TX Panhandles.
...Central Plains...
South of the aforementioned boundary across central KS into
southeastern NE, low to mid-50s dew points in combination with
strong daytime heating will yield moderate MLCAPE values around
1000-1500 J/kg. Thunderstorm activity should develop along the warm
front around 18z and increase with the incoming upper-level wave and
cooling aloft. Forecast soundings along and south of the boundary in
Kansas depict steep low to mid-level lapse rates (7-8 C/km) and deep
layer shear around 40 kts, supportive of supercells capable of large
to very large hail(some 2+ inches in diameter)and severe wind. The
Slight was extended southward into central Kansas to account for
potential for development into this region and continuation of the
large to very large hail threat.
With west to northwest winds aloft, all these storms may eventually
merge into the evening, propagating southeastward across much of
eastern KS into northwest MO. The warm boundary layer, combined with
cold downdraft material, will likely support scattered damaging
gusts.
...Northern California/Oregon Coasts...
As the upper-level low approaches the West Coast, forcing for ascent
will overspread portions of northern California into southern Oregon
with scattered thunderstorm development expected by the late
morning/afternoon. Sufficient moisture and MLCAPE will extend inland
overlapping deep layer shear 20-25 kts and steep low to mid-level
lapse rates to support potential for strong to severe wind gusts. As
such, a 5% wind area was introduced with this outlook to cover this
potential. Some instances of small hail will also be possible, owing
to steep lapse rates and cooling temperatures aloft.
..Thornton/Chalmers.. 04/09/2026
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Areas of hail and strong wind gusts are expected this afternoon and
evening in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley westward into
Kansas. Locally very large hail is possible.
...Synopsis...
The upper-level pattern across the US today will consist of a
deepening trough across the Western US with enhanced westerly flow
extending across the central/northern US within the base of a
broader upper-low across portions of Canada. Within the broad area
of westerly flow, several disturbances will rotate across the
northern Plains into the Great Lakes Region.
At the surface, a warm front will lift northward through the day
across the central Plains, extending as far north as southern NE/IA.
As a surface high builds to the north across the Dakotas, this
boundary will sag southward as a cold front through the late
afternoon/evening. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected
along this east/west oriented boundary and as well across the
dryline further west into the OK/TX Panhandles. The primary threat
will be for large to very large hail and damaging wind. A more
isolated risk for large hail will extend southward across the
dryline into western Kansas/OK/TX Panhandles.
...Central Plains...
South of the aforementioned boundary across central KS into
southeastern NE, low to mid-50s dew points in combination with
strong daytime heating will yield moderate MLCAPE values around
1000-1500 J/kg. Thunderstorm activity should develop along the warm
front around 18z and increase with the incoming upper-level wave and
cooling aloft. Forecast soundings along and south of the boundary in
Kansas depict steep low to mid-level lapse rates (7-8 C/km) and deep
layer shear around 40 kts, supportive of supercells capable of large
to very large hail(some 2+ inches in diameter)and severe wind. The
Slight was extended southward into central Kansas to account for
potential for development into this region and continuation of the
large to very large hail threat.
With west to northwest winds aloft, all these storms may eventually
merge into the evening, propagating southeastward across much of
eastern KS into northwest MO. The warm boundary layer, combined with
cold downdraft material, will likely support scattered damaging
gusts.
...Northern California/Oregon Coasts...
As the upper-level low approaches the West Coast, forcing for ascent
will overspread portions of northern California into southern Oregon
with scattered thunderstorm development expected by the late
morning/afternoon. Sufficient moisture and MLCAPE will extend inland
overlapping deep layer shear 20-25 kts and steep low to mid-level
lapse rates to support potential for strong to severe wind gusts. As
such, a 5% wind area was introduced with this outlook to cover this
potential. Some instances of small hail will also be possible, owing
to steep lapse rates and cooling temperatures aloft.
..Thornton/Chalmers.. 04/09/2026
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026
Valid 090100Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...Discussion...
The Marginal Risk across western/central Kansas was removed with
this outlook update. A cluster of thunderstorm activity continues to
shift south and east, but has largely remained below severe limits.
This activity is expected to further weaken over the next couple of
hours with the loss of daytime heating and gradually waning MLCAPE.
..Thornton.. 04/09/2026
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MD 0366 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0366
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026
Areas affected...Central into southwest Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 082149Z - 082345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along a cold front may pose a
risk of strong to severe downburst winds, and perhaps large hail,
through mid to late evening. Watch issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar and GOES IR cloud-top-temperature trends
depict several intensifying thunderstorms developing across central
KS along a cold front. With surface dewpoints in the upper 30s and
low 40s and temperatures in the upper 70s, the thermodynamic
environment is very well-mixed with surface-based LCLs estimated to
be at around 2.5 km AGL, and MLCAPE values estimated to be between
250 to 800 J/kg per recent forecast soundings and by modifying the
18 UTC DDC RAOB to regional conditions. However, effective bulk
shear are estimated to be at around 25 knots per regional VWPs and
RAP analyses. This may be sufficient for transient organization of
developing convection over the next few hours, especially if
clustering can occur along the front, including southwest of ongoing
thunderstorms to the north of the Dodge City, KS area where
low-level convergence appears to be weaker, but MLCAPE may be
slightly higher and could support a strong storm or two.
Given the deeply mixed boundary layer, the predominant hazard will
likely be strong to severe downburst winds within the deeper/more
robust convection (though instances of severe hail appear possible
given marginal, but sufficient, deep-layer wind shear). Although
latest high-res guidance has struggled to capture the onset of this
activity (per recent HRRR runs), most solutions suggest any severe
risk will remain fairly localized to central to southwest KS and
should only persist through mid/late evening.
..Moore/Smith.. 04/08/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 38470039 38949938 39359849 39639777 39749749 39809710
39699682 39369662 39009674 38759696 38489731 38359753
37979829 37819875 37729916 37609958 37559996 37550021
37610046 37710065 37890081 38060091 38220083 38470039
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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