SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 161200Z
...Synopsis...
A large upper-level trough approaches the California coast on Day
3/Friday while another upper trough traverses the Great Lakes into
the Northeast and temporary zonal flow continues over the Great
Plains. On Day 4/Saturday, an upper-level shortwave will move across
the central U.S., sending the first lee-surface low northeastward
over the Great Plains and Midwest through Day 6/Monday. A secondary
lee-surface low ejects off the Rockies on Day 6/Monday, traversing
the Midwest and Great Lakes region by Day 7/Tuesday. This scenario
is likely to result in multiple days of precipitation across much of
the western and central US, which would temporarily dampen fire
weather threats. Sporadic areas of little to no precipitation will
be possible, but are difficult to pin point due to the highly
dynamic pattern.
...Great Basin - Day 3/Friday...
The best chances for fire weather conditions under southerly flow
will occur on Day 3/Friday across portions of eastern UT into
western CO. Southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph (gusts up to 30 mph)
combined with 15-20% RH atop preconditioned, drying fuels from Day
2/Thursday is expected to generate Elevated fire weather conditions.
Precipitation arrival on Day 4/Saturday afternoon may provide relief
to any ongoing or new fire starts.
...Middle Mississippi Valley - Day 5/Sunday...
Ongoing drying conditions through the rest of this week and
increasing potential for 10+ mph southerly winds on Day 5/Sunday may
promote locally elevated fire weather concerns across northeastern
AR, southeastern MO, and western TN. Portions of this region range
from D2-D4 drought, though higher chances for wetting rainfall does
arrive middle of next week. Given model uncertainty in how far
northeast the gulf moisture may advect combined with questionable
fuels, critical probabilities have been withheld for now.
...Southern/Central Plains - Day 5/Sunday through Day 6/Monday...
Possible fire weather conditions return on Day 5/Sunday as a more
potent shortwave moves across the High Plains. On Day 6/Monday, a
secondary upper-level trough is forecast to move across the
Southwest. Considering the overall pattern, areas behind an emerging
dryline and along a downslope regime will need to be watched closely
for fire weather concerns. However, given model uncertainty in the
timing of the shortwave and coincident surface low development, and
the potential for widespread appreciable rainfall on Day 3/Friday -
Day 4/Saturday, critical probabilities have been withheld for now.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Stearns.. 04/08/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 161200Z
...Synopsis...
A large upper-level trough approaches the California coast on Day
3/Friday while another upper trough traverses the Great Lakes into
the Northeast and temporary zonal flow continues over the Great
Plains. On Day 4/Saturday, an upper-level shortwave will move across
the central U.S., sending the first lee-surface low northeastward
over the Great Plains and Midwest through Day 6/Monday. A secondary
lee-surface low ejects off the Rockies on Day 6/Monday, traversing
the Midwest and Great Lakes region by Day 7/Tuesday. This scenario
is likely to result in multiple days of precipitation across much of
the western and central US, which would temporarily dampen fire
weather threats. Sporadic areas of little to no precipitation will
be possible, but are difficult to pin point due to the highly
dynamic pattern.
...Great Basin - Day 3/Friday...
The best chances for fire weather conditions under southerly flow
will occur on Day 3/Friday across portions of eastern UT into
western CO. Southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph (gusts up to 30 mph)
combined with 15-20% RH atop preconditioned, drying fuels from Day
2/Thursday is expected to generate Elevated fire weather conditions.
Precipitation arrival on Day 4/Saturday afternoon may provide relief
to any ongoing or new fire starts.
...Middle Mississippi Valley - Day 5/Sunday...
Ongoing drying conditions through the rest of this week and
increasing potential for 10+ mph southerly winds on Day 5/Sunday may
promote locally elevated fire weather concerns across northeastern
AR, southeastern MO, and western TN. Portions of this region range
from D2-D4 drought, though higher chances for wetting rainfall does
arrive middle of next week. Given model uncertainty in how far
northeast the gulf moisture may advect combined with questionable
fuels, critical probabilities have been withheld for now.
...Southern/Central Plains - Day 5/Sunday through Day 6/Monday...
Possible fire weather conditions return on Day 5/Sunday as a more
potent shortwave moves across the High Plains. On Day 6/Monday, a
secondary upper-level trough is forecast to move across the
Southwest. Considering the overall pattern, areas behind an emerging
dryline and along a downslope regime will need to be watched closely
for fire weather concerns. However, given model uncertainty in the
timing of the shortwave and coincident surface low development, and
the potential for widespread appreciable rainfall on Day 3/Friday -
Day 4/Saturday, critical probabilities have been withheld for now.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Stearns.. 04/08/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of Kansas
late this afternoon and early evening, with hail and locally severe
wind gusts possible.
...20z Update KS...
The prior outlook remains valid with no changes. High-based
thunderstorms remain possible late this afternoon and this evening
ahead of the cold front in western and central KS. Steep low and
mid-level lapse rates should be sufficient for modest
destabilization amid limited boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in
the 40s F). Despite the limited buoyancy, a few stronger multi-cell
clusters capable of isolated severe gusts and some small hail are
possible.
Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms remain possible across parts of
FL, the West Coast and northern Plains through tonight. Weak
buoyancy and poor overlap with vertical shear should limit severe
potential. See the previous discussion for more information.
..Lyons.. 04/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026/
...Kansas...
A strong upper trough/low over the northern Plains and south-central
Canada will move eastward today towards the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes, and eventually spread into Ontario by late tonight. At the
surface, an occluded low will develop eastward in tandem with the
upper trough/low, while a cold front extending southwestward into
the central Plains continues moving slowly southward through this
evening. Limited low-level moisture is expected to exist ahead of
the front by late this afternoon across KS, with late morning
surface observations and short-term guidance both suggesting surface
dewpoints will likely remain in the mid 30s to no more than mid 40s.
A well-mixed boundary layer will likely develop with ample daytime
heating across the narrow warm sector, with MLCAPE perhaps peaking
in the 250-500 J/kg range around 21-23Z in parts of western/central
KS. MLCIN is forecast to become minimal in this time frame, and weak
low-level convergence along the front may be enough to aid isolated
thunderstorm development across this area.
While stronger flow aloft associated with the upper-level trough/low
will remain displaced to the north of KS, modest enhancement to the
mid-level westerlies may still support around 25-35 kt of deep-layer
shear. This should be sufficient for some updraft organization with
any thunderstorms that can develop and be sustained. The primary
uncertainty remains how many thunderstorms will form given overall
modest large-scale ascent amid weak instability. Still, some risk
for isolated hail and locally severe gusts remains apparent with the
strongest multicell cores. The Marginal Risk has been maintained
across KS with no changes.
...Central/South Florida...
20-30 kt mid-level westerlies will overlie weak low-level easterlies
today across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula.
Resultant modest effective bulk shear would conditionally support
updraft organization, but poor mid-level lapse rates noted on the
12Z TBW and KEY observed soundings should generally limit updraft
strength. Still, isolated to locally scattered thunderstorms should
develop this afternoon, and preferentially focus along/near the
Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Small hail and gusty winds may occur with
the strongest cores, but the overall severe threat appears too
limited/isolated to include any probabilities at this time.
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Afternoon Update...
The Elevated risk area was expanded slightly southward to account
for an expected overlap of southwesterly ~15 mph winds and RH of
10-20 percent atop dry fuels. Passing high clouds in the morning
with increasing mid-level clouds in the afternoon may dampen the
overall fire environment to some extent. However, any afternoon
storms that manage to develop (especially near the moisture
gradient) could produce erratic downburst winds. Given the dry
sub-cloud layer, low PWATs, and 50-150 J/kg MUCAPE, a few lightning
ignitions cannot be ruled out. With the very isolated nature of
storm development and potential for wetting rainfall into Day
3/Friday, dry thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld. See the
previous discussion for more information.
Across parts of the Northeast, dry and breezy conditions may promote
locally elevated fire weather concerns. RH of 25-35 percent combined
with southerly winds of 10-15 mph are expected, though questionable
fuels preclude any introduction of Elevated highlights. However,
weather conditions will support fire spread within pockets of drier
fine fuels.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Stearns.. 04/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0217 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026/
...Synopsis...
Largely zonal flow will be in place across much of the Rockies on
D2/Thursday as a closed upper-level trough approaches the California
coastline and a series of shortwave troughs rotates through the
northern Great Lakes region. At the surface, weak low pressure
center is forecast to develop across southeastern Colorado, with a
trailing dryline extending southward across the central High Plains
and a cold front extending northeastward across the central Great
Plains.
...Portions of the southern High Plains...
Relative humidity values are forecast to fall to 10-20% across
portions of the southern High Plains Thursday afternoon amid peak
mixing. Latest high-res guidance also suggests that a tightened
surface pressure gradient will favor sustained south-southwesterly
winds around 15 mph across this region. With dry, receptive fuels in
place across the region, this combination of winds/RH is expected to
promote a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions across
portions of northeastern New Mexico, extreme southeastern Colorado,
the western Oklahoma Panhandle, and the northwestern Texas
Panhandle.
Increased mid-level moisture atop deep, dry boundary layers
(forecast soundings suggest boundary layers may extend up to ~500 mb
or 3-4 km AGL), may also support the development of isolated,
high-based convection across the region. With PWATs on the order of
half an inch or less, little precipitation is expected, but
outflow/wind gusts from this convection may locally augment surface
winds speeds. With forecast soundings indicating the presence of
50-100 J/kg MUCAPE atop the boundary layer, an occasional dry
lightning strike may also be possible across this area. Confidence
in the coverage of potential dry thunderstorms remains low at this
time, but trends will be monitored for future outlook issuances.
...Portions of the Great Basin/Southwest...
Southwesterly winds of 10-20 mph are expected to overlap low RH of
15-20% across portions of the southern Great Basin and Southwest.
These factors may generate locally elevated fire weather concerns
Thursday afternoon; however, recent cooler weather, precipitation,
and resultant marginal fuels are expected to temper widespread fire
weather concerns at this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...AND TOWARD THE OZARKS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be
possible on Friday over parts of the southern and central Plains
eastward into the Ozarks.
...Discussion...
On Friday, an upper trough will move from the Great Lakes into the
Northeast, with temporary upper ridging over the Plains in advance
of a large upper trough moving across the West. At the surface, high
pressure will exist over the northern Plains to upper MS Valley,
with a cold front roughly from the KS/OK border into central MO, and
extending northeastward toward the Lower Great Lakes. This front
will become nearly stationary during the day over the Plains, and
will return north overnight as warm front across KS/MO.
Beneath the upper ridge, potential will exist for scattered
thunderstorms along the frontal zone at various times of the day.
Early day storms will be possible from eastern KS into MO and
possibly northern OK, as the Thursday night activity persists into
Friday morning with the aid of a southwesterly low-level jet and
outflows. This activity could pose strong gust potential before
weakening midday.
Additional storms will be possible along the east-west front as
heating occurs to the south of it (and any outflows). Though the
large-scale pattern will not favor significant coverage of severe
storms, isolated strong to severe storms may develop as the air mass
becomes uncapped. Slow-moving severe storms producing large hail
appear most likely across the northern TX to OK Panhandles into
southern KS and northwest OK, in closer proximity to the steeper
lapse rates aloft. Overall, shear will be marginal, but a stationary
storm may briefly show supercell characteristics given the veering
winds with height, producing large hail and isolated damaging gusts.
..Jewell.. 04/08/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...AND TOWARD THE OZARKS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be
possible on Friday over parts of the southern and central Plains
eastward into the Ozarks.
...Discussion...
On Friday, an upper trough will move from the Great Lakes into the
Northeast, with temporary upper ridging over the Plains in advance
of a large upper trough moving across the West. At the surface, high
pressure will exist over the northern Plains to upper MS Valley,
with a cold front roughly from the KS/OK border into central MO, and
extending northeastward toward the Lower Great Lakes. This front
will become nearly stationary during the day over the Plains, and
will return north overnight as warm front across KS/MO.
Beneath the upper ridge, potential will exist for scattered
thunderstorms along the frontal zone at various times of the day.
Early day storms will be possible from eastern KS into MO and
possibly northern OK, as the Thursday night activity persists into
Friday morning with the aid of a southwesterly low-level jet and
outflows. This activity could pose strong gust potential before
weakening midday.
Additional storms will be possible along the east-west front as
heating occurs to the south of it (and any outflows). Though the
large-scale pattern will not favor significant coverage of severe
storms, isolated strong to severe storms may develop as the air mass
becomes uncapped. Slow-moving severe storms producing large hail
appear most likely across the northern TX to OK Panhandles into
southern KS and northwest OK, in closer proximity to the steeper
lapse rates aloft. Overall, shear will be marginal, but a stationary
storm may briefly show supercell characteristics given the veering
winds with height, producing large hail and isolated damaging gusts.
..Jewell.. 04/08/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Areas of hail and strong wind gusts are expected Thursday afternoon
and evening in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley westward
into Kansas. Locally very large hail is possible.
...Synopsis...
An area of cyclonic flow aloft will exist from central into eastern
Canada, with various waves rotating from the northern Plains across
the Great Lakes. The southern periphery of the stronger winds aloft
will extend across much of the northern Plains and the Midwest, with
30 kt 500 mb winds as far south as northern KS and MO.
At the surface, a warm front will lift north across northern KS and
MO during the day, with 50s F dewpoints spreading north with gusty
south winds. As a shortwave disturbance moves into the northern
Plains late, a surge of high pressure will push this boundary south
as a cold front after 00Z, extending from southwest KS into central
MO and IL by 12Z Friday. Scattered strong to severe storms will be
most likely along this east-west front, with more isolated activity
from western KS into the TX Panhandle along a dryline.
..Central Plains...
Storms are expected to develop relatively early, perhaps around 18Z
over northeast KS into southeast NE as warm/moistening air from the
south interacts with the warm front. Strong heating south of the
boundary will result in steep low-level lapse rates, while the
increasing theta-e rises near the boundary and beneath cold midlevel
temperatures. The cold profiles aloft along with 40 kt effective
deep-layer shear will favor hail production, with perhaps isolated
very large hail.
As heating peaks during the later afternoon, additional cells are
expected extending southwestward into north-central KS. Though
dewpoints will only be in the 50s F, slow-moving supercells will be
possible, again with very large hail.
With west to northwest winds aloft, all these storms may eventually
merge into the evening, propagating southeastward across much of
eastern KS into northwest MO. The warm boundary layer, combined with
cold downdraft material, will likely support scattered damaging
gusts.
..Jewell.. 04/08/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026
Valid 081630Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of Kansas
late this afternoon and early evening, with hail and locally severe
wind gusts possible.
...Kansas...
A strong upper trough/low over the northern Plains and south-central
Canada will move eastward today towards the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes, and eventually spread into Ontario by late tonight. At the
surface, an occluded low will develop eastward in tandem with the
upper trough/low, while a cold front extending southwestward into
the central Plains continues moving slowly southward through this
evening. Limited low-level moisture is expected to exist ahead of
the front by late this afternoon across KS, with late morning
surface observations and short-term guidance both suggesting surface
dewpoints will likely remain in the mid 30s to no more than mid 40s.
A well-mixed boundary layer will likely develop with ample daytime
heating across the narrow warm sector, with MLCAPE perhaps peaking
in the 250-500 J/kg range around 21-23Z in parts of western/central
KS. MLCIN is forecast to become minimal in this time frame, and weak
low-level convergence along the front may be enough to aid isolated
thunderstorm development across this area.
While stronger flow aloft associated with the upper-level trough/low
will remain displaced to the north of KS, modest enhancement to the
mid-level westerlies may still support around 25-35 kt of deep-layer
shear. This should be sufficient for some updraft organization with
any thunderstorms that can develop and be sustained. The primary
uncertainty remains how many thunderstorms will form given overall
modest large-scale ascent amid weak instability. Still, some risk
for isolated hail and locally severe gusts remains apparent with the
strongest multicell cores. The Marginal Risk has been maintained
across KS with no changes.
...Central/South Florida...
20-30 kt mid-level westerlies will overlie weak low-level easterlies
today across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula.
Resultant modest effective bulk shear would conditionally support
updraft organization, but poor mid-level lapse rates noted on the
12Z TBW and KEY observed soundings should generally limit updraft
strength. Still, isolated to locally scattered thunderstorms should
develop this afternoon, and preferentially focus along/near the
Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Small hail and gusty winds may occur with
the strongest cores, but the overall severe threat appears too
limited/isolated to include any probabilities at this time.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 04/08/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026
Valid 081630Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of Kansas
late this afternoon and early evening, with hail and locally severe
wind gusts possible.
...Kansas...
A strong upper trough/low over the northern Plains and south-central
Canada will move eastward today towards the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes, and eventually spread into Ontario by late tonight. At the
surface, an occluded low will develop eastward in tandem with the
upper trough/low, while a cold front extending southwestward into
the central Plains continues moving slowly southward through this
evening. Limited low-level moisture is expected to exist ahead of
the front by late this afternoon across KS, with late morning
surface observations and short-term guidance both suggesting surface
dewpoints will likely remain in the mid 30s to no more than mid 40s.
A well-mixed boundary layer will likely develop with ample daytime
heating across the narrow warm sector, with MLCAPE perhaps peaking
in the 250-500 J/kg range around 21-23Z in parts of western/central
KS. MLCIN is forecast to become minimal in this time frame, and weak
low-level convergence along the front may be enough to aid isolated
thunderstorm development across this area.
While stronger flow aloft associated with the upper-level trough/low
will remain displaced to the north of KS, modest enhancement to the
mid-level westerlies may still support around 25-35 kt of deep-layer
shear. This should be sufficient for some updraft organization with
any thunderstorms that can develop and be sustained. The primary
uncertainty remains how many thunderstorms will form given overall
modest large-scale ascent amid weak instability. Still, some risk
for isolated hail and locally severe gusts remains apparent with the
strongest multicell cores. The Marginal Risk has been maintained
across KS with no changes.
...Central/South Florida...
20-30 kt mid-level westerlies will overlie weak low-level easterlies
today across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula.
Resultant modest effective bulk shear would conditionally support
updraft organization, but poor mid-level lapse rates noted on the
12Z TBW and KEY observed soundings should generally limit updraft
strength. Still, isolated to locally scattered thunderstorms should
develop this afternoon, and preferentially focus along/near the
Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Small hail and gusty winds may occur with
the strongest cores, but the overall severe threat appears too
limited/isolated to include any probabilities at this time.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 04/08/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026
Valid 081700Z - 091200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST SOUTH
CAROLINA INTO EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA...
...Morning Update...
The previous forecast remains on track. Passing high clouds this
morning and increasing mid-level clouds this afternoon may dampen
the fire environment in some areas. However, 15-20 mph northeasterly
winds overlapping near 20 percent RH for at least a few hours will
continue to support Critical fire weather in east/central Georgia
into southwestern South Carolina. Farther north, high resolution
guidance indicates breezy northeasterly winds of 10-15 mph and RH of
30-35 percent may extend closer to the North Carolina coastline, but
this region received sufficient rainfall in the last 72 hours,
precluding an eastward expansion of Elevated highlights. See the
previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Stearns.. 04/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will persist across the Southwest today as an
upper-level trough progresses eastward across the far northern Great
Plains/southern Canada. Meanwhile, a closed upper-level low will
simultaneously approach the California coastline. At the surface, a
cold front will move east-southeastward across the central Great
Plains and Midwest while surface high pressure shifts offshore of
the Northeast.
...Portions of the Southeast...
Surface high pressure will continue to favor enhanced northeasterly
flow across much of the Southeast today. Sustained surface winds of
10-15 mph are expected to coincide with reduced RH of 25-35% and
dry, receptive fuels to promote elevated fire weather concerns from
north-central North Carolina southwestward into portions of southern
Georgia. Latest high-res guidance continues to suggest a corridor of
stronger winds (15-20 mph) will overlap minimum RH values as low as
~20% (locally lower) during peak mixing, which will support a period
of Critical fire weather conditions from southwestern South Carolina
into eastern/south-central Georgia. Locally elevated conditions will
also be possible into eastern North Carolina and northeastern South
Carolina; however, recent heavier rainfall accumulations across
these areas are expected to preclude any widespread concerns.
...Portions of the central/southern High Plains...
Locally elevated conditions will be possible across portions of the
central/southern High Plains this afternoon, especially where gap
flows and terrain effects enhance downslope flow conditions. The
greatest potential will be across portions of southern Wyoming,
southern South Dakota, and eastern Colorado. The combination of
winds, RH, and fuels is expected to largely remain below elevated
thresholds, thus widespread fire weather concerns are not
anticipated at this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026
Valid 081700Z - 091200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST SOUTH
CAROLINA INTO EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA...
...Morning Update...
The previous forecast remains on track. Passing high clouds this
morning and increasing mid-level clouds this afternoon may dampen
the fire environment in some areas. However, 15-20 mph northeasterly
winds overlapping near 20 percent RH for at least a few hours will
continue to support Critical fire weather in east/central Georgia
into southwestern South Carolina. Farther north, high resolution
guidance indicates breezy northeasterly winds of 10-15 mph and RH of
30-35 percent may extend closer to the North Carolina coastline, but
this region received sufficient rainfall in the last 72 hours,
precluding an eastward expansion of Elevated highlights. See the
previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Stearns.. 04/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will persist across the Southwest today as an
upper-level trough progresses eastward across the far northern Great
Plains/southern Canada. Meanwhile, a closed upper-level low will
simultaneously approach the California coastline. At the surface, a
cold front will move east-southeastward across the central Great
Plains and Midwest while surface high pressure shifts offshore of
the Northeast.
...Portions of the Southeast...
Surface high pressure will continue to favor enhanced northeasterly
flow across much of the Southeast today. Sustained surface winds of
10-15 mph are expected to coincide with reduced RH of 25-35% and
dry, receptive fuels to promote elevated fire weather concerns from
north-central North Carolina southwestward into portions of southern
Georgia. Latest high-res guidance continues to suggest a corridor of
stronger winds (15-20 mph) will overlap minimum RH values as low as
~20% (locally lower) during peak mixing, which will support a period
of Critical fire weather conditions from southwestern South Carolina
into eastern/south-central Georgia. Locally elevated conditions will
also be possible into eastern North Carolina and northeastern South
Carolina; however, recent heavier rainfall accumulations across
these areas are expected to preclude any widespread concerns.
...Portions of the central/southern High Plains...
Locally elevated conditions will be possible across portions of the
central/southern High Plains this afternoon, especially where gap
flows and terrain effects enhance downslope flow conditions. The
greatest potential will be across portions of southern Wyoming,
southern South Dakota, and eastern Colorado. The combination of
winds, RH, and fuels is expected to largely remain below elevated
thresholds, thus widespread fire weather concerns are not
anticipated at this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026
Valid 081300Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop across western and central
Kansas late this afternoon and early evening, with hail and locally
severe wind gusts possible.
...Western/central Kansas...
The region will be glancingly influenced by an eastward-progressing
upper trough over the northern Plains. Ample insolation and robust
heating of a boundary layer, characterized by limited moisture (40s
F dewpoints), will result in convective temperatures being reached
by peak heating near a southeastward-moving front. Isolated to
widely scattered convective initiation is expected around or after
20Z, when 30+ F T/Td spreads will be in place. High-based multicells
will be the likely storm mode, as strong northwesterly flow aloft
will contribute to elongated, straight hodographs. The strongest
storms may produce hail and severe wind gusts on an isolated basis.
...Southern Florida...
A couple of stronger storms with gusty winds could again occur
today, mainly across the southeast part of the Florida Peninsula
this afternoon. Any severe threat should remain relatively marginal
and localized given the overall setup and thermodynamic environment.
..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/08/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026
Valid 081300Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop across western and central
Kansas late this afternoon and early evening, with hail and locally
severe wind gusts possible.
...Western/central Kansas...
The region will be glancingly influenced by an eastward-progressing
upper trough over the northern Plains. Ample insolation and robust
heating of a boundary layer, characterized by limited moisture (40s
F dewpoints), will result in convective temperatures being reached
by peak heating near a southeastward-moving front. Isolated to
widely scattered convective initiation is expected around or after
20Z, when 30+ F T/Td spreads will be in place. High-based multicells
will be the likely storm mode, as strong northwesterly flow aloft
will contribute to elongated, straight hodographs. The strongest
storms may produce hail and severe wind gusts on an isolated basis.
...Southern Florida...
A couple of stronger storms with gusty winds could again occur
today, mainly across the southeast part of the Florida Peninsula
this afternoon. Any severe threat should remain relatively marginal
and localized given the overall setup and thermodynamic environment.
..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/08/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026
Valid 081300Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop across western and central
Kansas late this afternoon and early evening, with hail and locally
severe wind gusts possible.
...Western/central Kansas...
The region will be glancingly influenced by an eastward-progressing
upper trough over the northern Plains. Ample insolation and robust
heating of a boundary layer, characterized by limited moisture (40s
F dewpoints), will result in convective temperatures being reached
by peak heating near a southeastward-moving front. Isolated to
widely scattered convective initiation is expected around or after
20Z, when 30+ F T/Td spreads will be in place. High-based multicells
will be the likely storm mode, as strong northwesterly flow aloft
will contribute to elongated, straight hodographs. The strongest
storms may produce hail and severe wind gusts on an isolated basis.
...Southern Florida...
A couple of stronger storms with gusty winds could again occur
today, mainly across the southeast part of the Florida Peninsula
this afternoon. Any severe threat should remain relatively marginal
and localized given the overall setup and thermodynamic environment.
..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/08/2026
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6...
On Saturday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen over the
central U.S., as an upper-level system moves to near the West Coast.
A moist airmass will be in place over the southern and central
Plains, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across the region.
Large-scale ascent along with warming surface temperatures will
result in scattered thunderstorm development over much of west Texas
Saturday afternoon. MLCAPE is expected to peak near 1000 J/kg in
some areas, with 0-6 km shear being in the 30 to 40 knot range over
much of the southern High Plains. This should be sufficient for a
severe threat, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible.
From Saturday night into Sunday, strong moisture advection is
forecast over the Great Plains. By Sunday afternoon, moderate
instability is expected to be in place over much of this airmass.
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected throughout
much of the moist sector during the afternoon and evening. Some
model forecasts move a 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet through central
and northeast Texas during the afternoon and evening. If this
happens, then a substantial severe threat would be possible from
parts of central and north Texas into Oklahoma. Severe storms,
including supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado
threat would be possible in areas that destabilize the most.
On Monday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to remain from
the southern Plains extending north-northeastward into the Upper
Midwest. Strong to severe thunderstorm development will be possible
over much of the instability corridor in the afternoon and evening.
The greatest potential for severe storms is forecast from the
southern Plains north-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley
and upper Mississippi Valley, where the models develop moderate
instability and have 0-6 km shear mostly in the 30 to 40 knot range.
Severe storms with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat will
be possible.
...Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8...
The western U.S. trough is finally forecast to approach the southern
Plains on Tuesday, where a moist and unstable airmass should be in
place. Some solutions suggest that a mid-level jet will move into
the southern Plains Tuesday afternoon. This would create strong
deep-layer shear over parts of the moist sector, suggesting that a
substantial severe threat will be possible. Although there is still
spatial uncertainty regarding this scenario, current model forecasts
would support supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and some
tornadoes.
On Wednesday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the
central states, with a southwest-to-northeast corridor of moderate
instability in place by afternoon from northeast Texas into western
Ozarks. This would be favorable for severe storms. However, at this
extended range, considerable uncertainty exists concerning severe
threat magnitude and spacing.
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis...
Largely zonal flow will be in place across much of the Rockies on
D2/Thursday as a closed upper-level trough approaches the California
coastline and a series of shortwave troughs rotates through the
northern Great Lakes region. At the surface, weak low pressure
center is forecast to develop across southeastern Colorado, with a
trailing dryline extending southward across the central High Plains
and a cold front extending northeastward across the central Great
Plains.
...Portions of the southern High Plains...
Relative humidity values are forecast to fall to 10-20% across
portions of the southern High Plains Thursday afternoon amid peak
mixing. Latest high-res guidance also suggests that a tightened
surface pressure gradient will favor sustained south-southwesterly
winds around 15 mph across this region. With dry, receptive fuels in
place across the region, this combination of winds/RH is expected to
promote a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions across
portions of northeastern New Mexico, extreme southeastern Colorado,
the western Oklahoma Panhandle, and the northwestern Texas
Panhandle.
Increased mid-level moisture atop deep, dry boundary layers
(forecast soundings suggest boundary layers may extend up to ~500 mb
or 3-4 km AGL), may also support the development of isolated,
high-based convection across the region. With PWATs on the order of
half an inch or less, little precipitation is expected, but
outflow/wind gusts from this convection may locally augment surface
winds speeds. With forecast soundings indicating the presence of
50-100 J/kg MUCAPE atop the boundary layer, an occasional dry
lightning strike may also be possible across this area. Confidence
in the coverage of potential dry thunderstorms remains low at this
time, but trends will be monitored for future outlook issuances.
...Portions of the Great Basin/Southwest...
Southwesterly winds of 10-20 mph are expected to overlap low RH of
15-20% across portions of the southern Great Basin and Southwest.
These factors may generate locally elevated fire weather concerns
Thursday afternoon; however, recent cooler weather, precipitation,
and resultant marginal fuels are expected to temper widespread fire
weather concerns at this time.
..Chalmers.. 04/08/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible
on Friday over parts of the southern and central Plains eastward
into the Ozarks.
...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks...
An upper-level ridge will move eastward into the Rockies on Friday,
as mid-level flow remains westerly over the Great Plains. At the
surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across far
southern Kansas. Surface heating and low-level convergence along the
front will aid convective initiation during the afternoon. A few
small thunderstorm clusters will be possible from late afternoon
into the evening. Near the front by late afternoon, model forecasts
have MLCAPE peaking in the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range, and show 0-6 km
shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. This should be enough for a
marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the
primary threats.
..Broyles.. 04/08/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST SOUTH
CAROLINA INTO EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA...
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will persist across the Southwest today as an
upper-level trough progresses eastward across the far northern Great
Plains/southern Canada. Meanwhile, a closed upper-level low will
simultaneously approach the California coastline. At the surface, a
cold front will move east-southeastward across the central Great
Plains and Midwest while surface high pressure shifts offshore of
the Northeast.
...Portions of the Southeast...
Surface high pressure will continue to favor enhanced northeasterly
flow across much of the Southeast today. Sustained surface winds of
10-15 mph are expected to coincide with reduced RH of 25-35% and
dry, receptive fuels to promote elevated fire weather concerns from
north-central North Carolina southwestward into portions of southern
Georgia. Latest high-res guidance continues to suggest a corridor of
stronger winds (15-20 mph) will overlap minimum RH values as low as
~20% (locally lower) during peak mixing, which will support a period
of Critical fire weather conditions from southwestern South Carolina
into eastern/south-central Georgia. Locally elevated conditions will
also be possible into eastern North Carolina and northeastern South
Carolina; however, recent heavier rainfall accumulations across
these areas are expected to preclude any widespread concerns.
...Portions of the central/southern High Plains...
Locally elevated conditions will be possible across portions of the
central/southern High Plains this afternoon, especially where gap
flows and terrain effects enhance downslope flow conditions. The
greatest potential will be across portions of southern Wyoming,
southern South Dakota, and eastern Colorado. The combination of
winds, RH, and fuels is expected to largely remain below elevated
thresholds, thus widespread fire weather concerns are not
anticipated at this time.
..Chalmers.. 04/08/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
An isolated threat for large hail and strong wind gusts is expected
to develop Thursday afternoon and evening in parts of the lower to
mid Missouri Valley westward into Kansas, and southwestward into the
Texas Panhandle.
...Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Central and Southern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move across the north-central U.S.
on Thursday, as westerly flow remains over the central states. At
the surface, moisture return will take place across the southern and
central Plains. A cold front is forecast to move southward into far
northern Kansas by afternoon. Surface heating and increasing
low-level convergence along the front will result in scattered
thunderstorm development during the late afternoon, with storms
gradually increasing in coverage in the evening. The latest model
forecasts suggest that a pocket of moderate instability will develop
across north-central Kansas, with weaker instability extending
eastward into northern Missouri. NAM forecast soundings in the late
afternoon near the front show about 40 knots of 0-6 km shear with
700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This should support
isolated supercell development with potential for large hail.
Surface temperature-dewpoint spreads are forecast to exceed 20 F
along much of this corridor, which would contribute to a potential
for isolated severe gusts.
Further southwest into southwest Kansas and the Texas Panhandle,
dryline development will be possible as surface dewpoints gradually
increase during the day. Isolated thunderstorms may form to the east
of the dryline during the early evening. Weak instability, moderate
deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates may support a
marginal severe threat. Isolated damaging wind gusts and hail will
be the primary threats.
..Broyles.. 04/08/2026
Read more
