SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
An isolated threat for large hail and strong wind gusts is expected
to develop Thursday afternoon and evening in parts of the lower to
mid Missouri Valley westward into Kansas, and southwestward into the
Texas Panhandle.
...Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Central and Southern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move across the north-central U.S.
on Thursday, as westerly flow remains over the central states. At
the surface, moisture return will take place across the southern and
central Plains. A cold front is forecast to move southward into far
northern Kansas by afternoon. Surface heating and increasing
low-level convergence along the front will result in scattered
thunderstorm development during the late afternoon, with storms
gradually increasing in coverage in the evening. The latest model
forecasts suggest that a pocket of moderate instability will develop
across north-central Kansas, with weaker instability extending
eastward into northern Missouri. NAM forecast soundings in the late
afternoon near the front show about 40 knots of 0-6 km shear with
700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This should support
isolated supercell development with potential for large hail.
Surface temperature-dewpoint spreads are forecast to exceed 20 F
along much of this corridor, which would contribute to a potential
for isolated severe gusts.
Further southwest into southwest Kansas and the Texas Panhandle,
dryline development will be possible as surface dewpoints gradually
increase during the day. Isolated thunderstorms may form to the east
of the dryline during the early evening. Weak instability, moderate
deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates may support a
marginal severe threat. Isolated damaging wind gusts and hail will
be the primary threats.
..Broyles.. 04/08/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms may develop across western into central
Kansas this afternoon and evening, with an instance or two of severe
wind and hail possible.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will traverse the north-central CONUS today,
supporting modest surface troughing across the Plains states.
Despite initially meager low-level moisture return, storms may
develop along a frontal boundary over the central Plains by late
afternoon. A few of which may be strong. Otherwise, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms may develop along sea-breeze boundaries over
the FL Peninsula, as was with the upper trough over the Upper MS
Valley. A couple of lightning flashes may also occur over northern
CA surrounding areas as an upper trough impinges on the coastline.
...Central into western Kansas...
By afternoon peak heating, clear skies and robust heating of the
boundary layer will result in convective temperatures being reached
along/just ahead of a frontal boundary, which is poised to drift
southward through late afternoon. Convective initiation is likely
around or after 20Z, when 30+ F T/Td spreads should be in place.
High-based multicells will be the likely storm mode, as strong
northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to elongated, straight
hodographs. The strongest storms may produce a couple of severe
gusts and perhaps an instance or two of hail.
..Squitieri/Chalmers.. 04/08/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms may develop across western into central
Kansas this afternoon and evening, with an instance or two of severe
wind and hail possible.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will traverse the north-central CONUS today,
supporting modest surface troughing across the Plains states.
Despite initially meager low-level moisture return, storms may
develop along a frontal boundary over the central Plains by late
afternoon. A few of which may be strong. Otherwise, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms may develop along sea-breeze boundaries over
the FL Peninsula, as was with the upper trough over the Upper MS
Valley. A couple of lightning flashes may also occur over northern
CA surrounding areas as an upper trough impinges on the coastline.
...Central into western Kansas...
By afternoon peak heating, clear skies and robust heating of the
boundary layer will result in convective temperatures being reached
along/just ahead of a frontal boundary, which is poised to drift
southward through late afternoon. Convective initiation is likely
around or after 20Z, when 30+ F T/Td spreads should be in place.
High-based multicells will be the likely storm mode, as strong
northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to elongated, straight
hodographs. The strongest storms may produce a couple of severe
gusts and perhaps an instance or two of hail.
..Squitieri/Chalmers.. 04/08/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0809 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 080100Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
CORRECTED FOR WORDING
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms remain possible tonight over the northern and
southern High Plains. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough continues to progress across the northern
Rockies, providing enough mechanical lift amid cooler temperatures
aloft to support isolated high-based thunderstorms atop a dry
boundary layer. A low-amplitude mid-level impulse will also continue
to traverse the southern Rockies, supporting scattered lightning
flashes given the presence of scant buoyancy. These storms should
gradually diminish through the evening as boundary-layer
stabilization from nocturnal cooling takes place.
..Squitieri.. 04/08/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0809 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 080100Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
CORRECTED FOR WORDING
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms remain possible tonight over the northern and
southern High Plains. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough continues to progress across the northern
Rockies, providing enough mechanical lift amid cooler temperatures
aloft to support isolated high-based thunderstorms atop a dry
boundary layer. A low-amplitude mid-level impulse will also continue
to traverse the southern Rockies, supporting scattered lightning
flashes given the presence of scant buoyancy. These storms should
gradually diminish through the evening as boundary-layer
stabilization from nocturnal cooling takes place.
..Squitieri.. 04/08/2026
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 151200Z
...Synopsis...
Fairly zonal flow dominates much of central CONUS on Day 3/Thursday
as upper-level troughing traverses the Northeast and a cutoff low
approaches the California coast. However, it's not until Day
4/Friday into Day 5/Saturday that the center of the low finally
moves onshore as a result of another trough moving across the
northern Pacific. By Day 6/Sunday, this upper-level low also cuts
off, sending the first cutoff low northeastward across the Great
Plains and Midwest by Day 8/Monday. This scenario is likely to
result in multiple days of precipitation across much of the western
and central US, which would temporarily dampen fire weather threats.
Sporadic areas of little to no precipitation will be possible, but
are difficult to pin point due to the highly dynamic pattern.
...Great Basin/Southwest - Day 3/Thursday through Day 4/Friday...
The best chances for sporadic fire weather conditions under
southerly flow will occur on Day 3/Thursday through Day 4/Friday
across portions of the eastern Great Basin and Southwest.
Southwesterly winds of 10-20 mph combined with 15-20% RH in
northwest AZ and southern NV may generate locally elevated fire
weather concerns on Day 3/Thursday. Similar conditions also appear
likely across eastern UT on Day 4/Friday. However, recent cooler
weather, precipitation, and resultant questionably receptive fuels
will preclude any probabilities at this time. While this event could
promote a brief period of drier fuel conditions across this region,
precipitation appears likely with the aforementioned low pressure
system later in the week.
...Southern Plains - Day 6/Sunday through Day 7/Monday...
Possible fire weather conditions return on Day 6/Sunday as a more
potent shortwave moves across the High Plains. On Day 7/Monday, a
secondary upper-level trough is forecast to move across the
Southwest. Considering the overall pattern, areas behind an emerging
dryline will need to be watched closely for fire weather concerns.
However, given model uncertainty in the timing of the shortwave and
coincident surface low development, and the potential for widespread
appreciable rainfall on Day 4/Friday - Day 5/Saturday, critical
probabilities have been withheld for now.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Stearns.. 04/07/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 151200Z
...Synopsis...
Fairly zonal flow dominates much of central CONUS on Day 3/Thursday
as upper-level troughing traverses the Northeast and a cutoff low
approaches the California coast. However, it's not until Day
4/Friday into Day 5/Saturday that the center of the low finally
moves onshore as a result of another trough moving across the
northern Pacific. By Day 6/Sunday, this upper-level low also cuts
off, sending the first cutoff low northeastward across the Great
Plains and Midwest by Day 8/Monday. This scenario is likely to
result in multiple days of precipitation across much of the western
and central US, which would temporarily dampen fire weather threats.
Sporadic areas of little to no precipitation will be possible, but
are difficult to pin point due to the highly dynamic pattern.
...Great Basin/Southwest - Day 3/Thursday through Day 4/Friday...
The best chances for sporadic fire weather conditions under
southerly flow will occur on Day 3/Thursday through Day 4/Friday
across portions of the eastern Great Basin and Southwest.
Southwesterly winds of 10-20 mph combined with 15-20% RH in
northwest AZ and southern NV may generate locally elevated fire
weather concerns on Day 3/Thursday. Similar conditions also appear
likely across eastern UT on Day 4/Friday. However, recent cooler
weather, precipitation, and resultant questionably receptive fuels
will preclude any probabilities at this time. While this event could
promote a brief period of drier fuel conditions across this region,
precipitation appears likely with the aforementioned low pressure
system later in the week.
...Southern Plains - Day 6/Sunday through Day 7/Monday...
Possible fire weather conditions return on Day 6/Sunday as a more
potent shortwave moves across the High Plains. On Day 7/Monday, a
secondary upper-level trough is forecast to move across the
Southwest. Considering the overall pattern, areas behind an emerging
dryline will need to be watched closely for fire weather concerns.
However, given model uncertainty in the timing of the shortwave and
coincident surface low development, and the potential for widespread
appreciable rainfall on Day 4/Friday - Day 5/Saturday, critical
probabilities have been withheld for now.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Stearns.. 04/07/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN
GEORGIA AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH CAROLINA...
A Critical risk area was added over southwest South Carolina and
into south-central and eastern Georgia. A corridor of strong
northeast winds up to 15-20 mph combined with afternoon RHs below
25% will impact the highlighted area. While less likely, it's worth
noting that some forecast model guidance is suggesting very dry
afternoon RHs below 20% across portions of east-central Georgia. The
Elevated area was also expanded across northern North Carolina where
northeast winds of 10-15 mph will combine with afternoon RHs under
30-35%. With few exceptions over the expanded area of the Elevated
risk, recent rainfall has overall been relatively minimal.
As was previously mentioned for the central/southern High Plains,
locally elevated conditions will be possible across portions of this
region where enhanced by downslope flow conditions. This is
especially true in southern South Dakota, southern Wyoming, and
eastern Colorado. However, the combination of wind, RH, and fuels is
expected to remain just below elevated thresholds through much of
the afternoon.
..Stearns.. 04/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will persist across the Southwest on
D2/Wednesday as an upper-level trough progresses eastward along the
Canadian border. A closed upper-level low will simultaneously
approach the California coastline. At the surface, a cold front will
progress slowly southward across the central Great Plains while a
surface high shifts offshore of the Mid-Atlantic.
...Portions of southwestern South Carolina into western Georgia...
Surface high pressure to the north will continue to favor
northeasterly flow across much of the Southeast. Sustained surface
winds of 10-15 mph are forecast to overlap reduced RH of 25-35%
during peak mixing Wednesday afternoon. With dry, receptive fuels in
place across the area, this is expected to promote elevated fire
weather concerns from southwestern South Carolina into portions of
western Georgia. Latest high-res guidance indicates some potential
for locally critical conditions across portions of eastern Georgia;
however, Critical highlights have been withheld at this time due to
uncertainty regarding coverage and duration of sustained surface
winds of 15+ mph. Trends will continue to be monitored for future
issuances.
...Portions of the central/southern High Plains...
Northwesterly flow across the central/southern Rockies will favor
lee troughing across portions of the central/southern High Plains.
This is expected to support a weak downslope wind regime for
D2/Wednesday. While minimum RH values are forecast in the 10-15%
range, latest guidance indicates sustained surface winds will remain
less than 15 mph across much of the region. Thus, widespread
elevated fire weather conditions are not expected at this time.
Locally elevated conditions will be possible in gap flow and other
favorable areas for terrain enhanced winds, however.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 072000Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms remain possible across
parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula, southern/central
Rockies/High Plains, and northern High Plains today and tonight.
Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low.
...20z Update...
The only change was to trim thunder probabilities over parts of the
southern FL Peninsula. Isolated storms remain possible south of the
front over the Keys tonight. While a brief stronger thunderstorm
remains possible across south FL, weak mid-level lapse rates and
modest vertical shear will continue to limit severe potential before
convection moves offshore this afternoon. Otherwise, the outlook
remains unchanged, see the previous discussion.
..Lyons.. 04/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026/
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move east-southeastward today from
British Columbia/Alberta to the northern Rockies/High Plains. Strong
mid-level winds will accompany this shortwave trough, and a
deep/well-mixed boundary layer is expected to develop across parts
of eastern MT and vicinity by this afternoon with diurnal heating.
However, low-level moisture will remain quite limited, with surface
dewpoints currently in the 20s to mid 30s across the northern High
Plains. This will hinder the development of any more than weak
MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon, although high-based convection
capable of producing occasional lightning flashes and strong/gusty
winds may occur. Given expectations for moisture and related
instability to remain quite meager, have not included low severe
wind probabilities across the northern High Plains with this update.
A weak mid-level shortwave trough will continue to advance eastward
across the FL Peninsula through the afternoon. Isolated to perhaps
scattered thunderstorms remain possible, mainly across parts of
south FL along and south of a convectively reinforced front. Prior
convection and ongoing cloud cover across the central/southern FL
Peninsula will probably hinder more robust diurnal heating this
afternoon. Still, locally gusty downdraft winds and small hail may
occur with the stronger cores that can develop, before convection
eventually focuses offshore by this evening.
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms also appear possible
across parts of the southern/central Rockies and adjacent High
Plains through this evening, but weak instability across these
regions are expected to preclude severe thunderstorms.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO KANSAS AND THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
An isolated threat for large hail and strong wind gusts is expected
to develop on Thursday in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley
westward into KS, and southward across the southern High Plains.
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper shortwave trough embedded within larger-scale troughing
across the northern U.S. will pivot eastward across the northern
Plains to the Upper Midwest on Thursday. Meanwhile, low-amplitude
upper ridging over the West will meander eastward toward the
Rockies. At the surface, a boundary will be oriented west to east
across northern KS and northern MO while a surface dryline extends
south/southwest across western KS into western TX. Neutral height
tendencies across the southern Plains will preclude stronger surface
cyclogenesis, but weak lee surface troughing is forecast across the
High Plains.
...Central Plains to Mid-MO Valley...
Boundary layer moisture will remain modest across the warm sector,
with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s F. Nevertheless, steep
midlevel lapse rates around 7.5-8.5 C/km will support MUCAPE to
around 1000-1500 J/kg near the west to east surface front.
Vertically veering wind profiles, with 40-50 kt flow through much of
the cloud bearing layer will support supercell wind profiles with
effective shear greater than 40 kt. Large-scale ascent is forecast
to remain modest, with the main midlevel shortwave passing to the
north of the area. However, convergence along the boundary and
continued warm advection into the evening as a low-level jet
increases should be sufficient for scattered thunderstorm
development. Isolated large hail will be possible with this activity
from late afternoon into the evening.
...Southern High Plains...
A more conditional severe thunderstorm environment will exist
further south along the dryline across western TX toward southwest
KS. Strong heating and mixing along the boundary, and low-level
convergence may be sufficient for a few storms developing by
evening. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE to around
1000-1500 J/kg. Vertical shear will remain modest, generally less
than 25 kt effective shear magnitudes. Isolated large hail will be
possible with any stronger cells that can develop and be maintained.
Additionally, a well mixed boundary-layer and inverted-v sub-cloud
layer thermodynamic profiles suggest locally strong wind gusts also
may be possible.
..Leitman.. 04/07/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO KANSAS AND THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
An isolated threat for large hail and strong wind gusts is expected
to develop on Thursday in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley
westward into KS, and southward across the southern High Plains.
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper shortwave trough embedded within larger-scale troughing
across the northern U.S. will pivot eastward across the northern
Plains to the Upper Midwest on Thursday. Meanwhile, low-amplitude
upper ridging over the West will meander eastward toward the
Rockies. At the surface, a boundary will be oriented west to east
across northern KS and northern MO while a surface dryline extends
south/southwest across western KS into western TX. Neutral height
tendencies across the southern Plains will preclude stronger surface
cyclogenesis, but weak lee surface troughing is forecast across the
High Plains.
...Central Plains to Mid-MO Valley...
Boundary layer moisture will remain modest across the warm sector,
with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s F. Nevertheless, steep
midlevel lapse rates around 7.5-8.5 C/km will support MUCAPE to
around 1000-1500 J/kg near the west to east surface front.
Vertically veering wind profiles, with 40-50 kt flow through much of
the cloud bearing layer will support supercell wind profiles with
effective shear greater than 40 kt. Large-scale ascent is forecast
to remain modest, with the main midlevel shortwave passing to the
north of the area. However, convergence along the boundary and
continued warm advection into the evening as a low-level jet
increases should be sufficient for scattered thunderstorm
development. Isolated large hail will be possible with this activity
from late afternoon into the evening.
...Southern High Plains...
A more conditional severe thunderstorm environment will exist
further south along the dryline across western TX toward southwest
KS. Strong heating and mixing along the boundary, and low-level
convergence may be sufficient for a few storms developing by
evening. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE to around
1000-1500 J/kg. Vertical shear will remain modest, generally less
than 25 kt effective shear magnitudes. Isolated large hail will be
possible with any stronger cells that can develop and be maintained.
Additionally, a well mixed boundary-layer and inverted-v sub-cloud
layer thermodynamic profiles suggest locally strong wind gusts also
may be possible.
..Leitman.. 04/07/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible in parts of
western and central Kansas late Wednesday afternoon into the
evening.
...Kansas...
A compact upper trough will pivot across the northern Plains to the
Great Lakes on Wednesday into early Thursday. At the surface, low
pressure centered over southern Manitoba will develop east/northeast
toward James Bay by the end of the period. A trailing cold front
will shift southeast across the central Plains and Upper Midwest.
Gulf moisture return will remain muted given persistent high
pressure over the East and prior cold frontal intrusions into the
Gulf. As a result, surface dewpoints will mainly be in the 40s ahead
of the cold front across the central Plains. Nevertheless, cool
temperatures aloft (around -18 to -16 C at 500 mb) will support a
plume of steep midlevel lapse rates across the region. This will aid
in weak destabilization in a narrow corridor near the front during
the late afternoon and evening. Low-level flow through at least 700
mb will remain fairly weak (less than 20 kt), but vertically veering
wind profiles with stronger northwest flow aloft will result in
supercell wind profiles and 30+ kt effective shear magnitudes.
Isolated thunderstorms are expected just ahead of the cold front
from late afternoon into the evening hours across western and
central KS. While instability will be the main limiting factor for a
more robust severe risk, isolated large hail will be possible with
any stronger updrafts that can be maintained. Additionally, a well
mixed boundary-layer with inverted-v sub-cloud layer thermodynamic
profiles are evident in forecast soundings. Weak low-level flow will
temper the damaging wind risk, but locally strong gusts will be
possible.
..Leitman.. 04/07/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible in parts of
western and central Kansas late Wednesday afternoon into the
evening.
...Kansas...
A compact upper trough will pivot across the northern Plains to the
Great Lakes on Wednesday into early Thursday. At the surface, low
pressure centered over southern Manitoba will develop east/northeast
toward James Bay by the end of the period. A trailing cold front
will shift southeast across the central Plains and Upper Midwest.
Gulf moisture return will remain muted given persistent high
pressure over the East and prior cold frontal intrusions into the
Gulf. As a result, surface dewpoints will mainly be in the 40s ahead
of the cold front across the central Plains. Nevertheless, cool
temperatures aloft (around -18 to -16 C at 500 mb) will support a
plume of steep midlevel lapse rates across the region. This will aid
in weak destabilization in a narrow corridor near the front during
the late afternoon and evening. Low-level flow through at least 700
mb will remain fairly weak (less than 20 kt), but vertically veering
wind profiles with stronger northwest flow aloft will result in
supercell wind profiles and 30+ kt effective shear magnitudes.
Isolated thunderstorms are expected just ahead of the cold front
from late afternoon into the evening hours across western and
central KS. While instability will be the main limiting factor for a
more robust severe risk, isolated large hail will be possible with
any stronger updrafts that can be maintained. Additionally, a well
mixed boundary-layer with inverted-v sub-cloud layer thermodynamic
profiles are evident in forecast soundings. Weak low-level flow will
temper the damaging wind risk, but locally strong gusts will be
possible.
..Leitman.. 04/07/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 071630Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms should occur today
across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula,
southern/central Rockies/High Plains, and northern High Plains.
Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move east-southeastward today from
British Columbia/Alberta to the northern Rockies/High Plains. Strong
mid-level winds will accompany this shortwave trough, and a
deep/well-mixed boundary layer is expected to develop across parts
of eastern MT and vicinity by this afternoon with diurnal heating.
However, low-level moisture will remain quite limited, with surface
dewpoints currently in the 20s to mid 30s across the northern High
Plains. This will hinder the development of any more than weak
MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon, although high-based convection
capable of producing occasional lightning flashes and strong/gusty
winds may occur. Given expectations for moisture and related
instability to remain quite meager, have not included low severe
wind probabilities across the northern High Plains with this update.
A weak mid-level shortwave trough will continue to advance eastward
across the FL Peninsula through the afternoon. Isolated to perhaps
scattered thunderstorms remain possible, mainly across parts of
south FL along and south of a convectively reinforced front. Prior
convection and ongoing cloud cover across the central/southern FL
Peninsula will probably hinder more robust diurnal heating this
afternoon. Still, locally gusty downdraft winds and small hail may
occur with the stronger cores that can develop, before convection
eventually focuses offshore by this evening.
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms also appear possible
across parts of the southern/central Rockies and adjacent High
Plains through this evening, but weak instability across these
regions are expected to preclude severe thunderstorms.
..Gleason.. 04/07/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 071630Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms should occur today
across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula,
southern/central Rockies/High Plains, and northern High Plains.
Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move east-southeastward today from
British Columbia/Alberta to the northern Rockies/High Plains. Strong
mid-level winds will accompany this shortwave trough, and a
deep/well-mixed boundary layer is expected to develop across parts
of eastern MT and vicinity by this afternoon with diurnal heating.
However, low-level moisture will remain quite limited, with surface
dewpoints currently in the 20s to mid 30s across the northern High
Plains. This will hinder the development of any more than weak
MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon, although high-based convection
capable of producing occasional lightning flashes and strong/gusty
winds may occur. Given expectations for moisture and related
instability to remain quite meager, have not included low severe
wind probabilities across the northern High Plains with this update.
A weak mid-level shortwave trough will continue to advance eastward
across the FL Peninsula through the afternoon. Isolated to perhaps
scattered thunderstorms remain possible, mainly across parts of
south FL along and south of a convectively reinforced front. Prior
convection and ongoing cloud cover across the central/southern FL
Peninsula will probably hinder more robust diurnal heating this
afternoon. Still, locally gusty downdraft winds and small hail may
occur with the stronger cores that can develop, before convection
eventually focuses offshore by this evening.
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms also appear possible
across parts of the southern/central Rockies and adjacent High
Plains through this evening, but weak instability across these
regions are expected to preclude severe thunderstorms.
..Gleason.. 04/07/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 071700Z - 081200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
GEORGIA...
...Morning Update...
No changes were made to the previous forecast. As of late morning,
northeasterly wind gusts of up to 20 mph and decreasing RH to 30
percent are already being measured within the Critical risk area.
Across portions of the western Florida Panhandle, recent high
resolution guidance is portraying less than 35 percent RH and
sustained northeasterly winds of 10-15 mph this afternoon. However,
higher accumulations of precipitation within the last 48 hours may
mitigate a broader fire weather threat, precluding a westward
expansion of Elevated highlights. Nevertheless, areas that did not
receive appreciable rainfall may encounter locally elevated fire
weather concerns in pockets where drier fine fuels may exist. See
the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Stearns.. 04/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0212 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will continue to dampen across the West today as
a mid-level shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest moves
eastward along the Canadian border and a second mid-level shortwave
trough ejects eastward over southwestern Texas. This will promote
largely zonal flow across much of the central/northern Rockies. At
the surface, a cold front will shift offshore of South Florida, with
high pressure in place across the Midwest. A second frontal system
will simultaneously shift eastward across the northern Great Plains.
...Portions of eastern Georgia into the Florida Panhandle...
Sustained northeasterly winds of 10-20 mph along the southern
periphery of a surface high positioned across the Great Lakes region
are forecast to overlap minimum RH values of 20-30% during peak
mixing Tuesday afternoon. With receptive fuels in place across a
region characterized by ongoing extreme/exceptional drought, this is
expected to promote elevated to critical fire weather conditions
from eastern Georgia into the central Florida Panhandle, especially
across areas that did not see appreciable rainfall accumulations
over the past 24-48 hours.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 071700Z - 081200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
GEORGIA...
...Morning Update...
No changes were made to the previous forecast. As of late morning,
northeasterly wind gusts of up to 20 mph and decreasing RH to 30
percent are already being measured within the Critical risk area.
Across portions of the western Florida Panhandle, recent high
resolution guidance is portraying less than 35 percent RH and
sustained northeasterly winds of 10-15 mph this afternoon. However,
higher accumulations of precipitation within the last 48 hours may
mitigate a broader fire weather threat, precluding a westward
expansion of Elevated highlights. Nevertheless, areas that did not
receive appreciable rainfall may encounter locally elevated fire
weather concerns in pockets where drier fine fuels may exist. See
the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Stearns.. 04/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0212 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will continue to dampen across the West today as
a mid-level shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest moves
eastward along the Canadian border and a second mid-level shortwave
trough ejects eastward over southwestern Texas. This will promote
largely zonal flow across much of the central/northern Rockies. At
the surface, a cold front will shift offshore of South Florida, with
high pressure in place across the Midwest. A second frontal system
will simultaneously shift eastward across the northern Great Plains.
...Portions of eastern Georgia into the Florida Panhandle...
Sustained northeasterly winds of 10-20 mph along the southern
periphery of a surface high positioned across the Great Lakes region
are forecast to overlap minimum RH values of 20-30% during peak
mixing Tuesday afternoon. With receptive fuels in place across a
region characterized by ongoing extreme/exceptional drought, this is
expected to promote elevated to critical fire weather conditions
from eastern Georgia into the central Florida Panhandle, especially
across areas that did not see appreciable rainfall accumulations
over the past 24-48 hours.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 071300Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across parts
of the Florida Peninsula, the southern Rockies, and northern High
Plains. Severe thunderstorm potential is currently expected to
remain low.
...Synopsis...
Split/nearly zonal upper-level flow will prevail across most of the
CONUS to the south of an amplifying trough from the Canadian Rockies
southeastward toward the northern High Plains, and in the wake of
low-amplitude troughs crossing both New England and Florida today.
...Florida Peninsula...
Scattered thunderstorms should increase across the Florida Peninsula
into the afternoon, influenced by the passing mid-level trough and
sea-breeze convergence in the presence of a very moist airmass. A
few of the storms across the southern Florida Peninsula could
produce locally strong thunderstorm winds, but severe potential
should remain relatively low.
...Northern High Plains...
Isolated high-based storms are expected across the northern High
Plains, including eastern Montana into western North Dakota, aided
by the approach of the aforementioned upper trough. Storms will
develop atop a relatively dry/well-mixed boundary layer, but with
very limited buoyancy overall. Given the dry boundary layer and
strengthening mid-tropospheric winds, strong and gusty winds may
accompany this convection during the late afternoon until around
sunset.
..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/07/2026
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