Storm Prediction Center

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across the Florida Peninsula and portions of the Southwest, Pacific Northwest, and eastern Great Lakes. While a few strong storms may occur across the central/southern Florida Peninsula, organized severe potential should remain low. ...20z Update... No changes are need to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/06/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Mean longwave troughing will remain over the eastern COUNS today, while a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances eastward across the Gulf towards the FL Peninsula by late tonight. At the surface, high pressure centered over the southern Plains to TN/OH Valleys will maintain offshore low-level trajectories and limited low-level moisture over a large majority of the CONUS. Still, isolated lightning flashes may occur today across parts of the eastern Great Lakes, Southwest, and Pacific Northwest in association with weak mid-level perturbations amid the presence of sufficient MUCAPE and modest lift. Greater low-level moisture (mid 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints) will remain confined along/south of a cold front draped across the central FL Peninsula. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across central/south FL as daytime heating erodes lingering MLCIN, especially across interior areas. With the low-amplitude shortwave trough remaining well to the west over the Gulf through the day, weak low/mid-level winds and meager deep-layer shear over land will likely limit updraft organization and severe potential. Still, occasional strong/gusty downburst winds may occur with the more robust cores as low-level lapse rates become steepened with continued diurnal heating. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible in parts of the central Plains Wednesday evening. ...Central Plains... A compact upper trough/low will move from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes on Wednesday. At the surface, low pressure will shift from southern Manitoba to near James Bay in Ontario. A trailing cold front will develop southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited due to persistent surface high pressure across the East, cutting off stronger Gulf moisture return. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (around -15 C at 500 mb) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and weak instability in a corridor along/just ahead of the cold front across the central Plains. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast near the front during the evening. Vertical shear will be somewhat weak through 6 km, but effective shear magnitudes around 25-30 kt is evident in forecast soundings. Furthermore, strong west/northwesterly flow through the top half of the cloud-bearing layer will result in lengthened/straight hodographs. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer is also forecast. This environment marginally supports a few strong to severe storms capable of producing locally strong gusts, and perhaps marginally severe hail if updrafts can be sustained. ..Leitman.. 04/06/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible in parts of the central Plains Wednesday evening. ...Central Plains... A compact upper trough/low will move from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes on Wednesday. At the surface, low pressure will shift from southern Manitoba to near James Bay in Ontario. A trailing cold front will develop southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited due to persistent surface high pressure across the East, cutting off stronger Gulf moisture return. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (around -15 C at 500 mb) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and weak instability in a corridor along/just ahead of the cold front across the central Plains. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast near the front during the evening. Vertical shear will be somewhat weak through 6 km, but effective shear magnitudes around 25-30 kt is evident in forecast soundings. Furthermore, strong west/northwesterly flow through the top half of the cloud-bearing layer will result in lengthened/straight hodographs. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer is also forecast. This environment marginally supports a few strong to severe storms capable of producing locally strong gusts, and perhaps marginally severe hail if updrafts can be sustained. ..Leitman.. 04/06/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA... A small Critical area was added over south-central Georgia where afternoon northeasterly winds will approach 15-20 mph combined with RHs of 20-30%. These weather conditions will also exist farther to the south and west as well. However, recent accumulating rainfall and anticipated additional precipitation over this area today/tonight will preclude any extension in that direction with this forecast issuance. This region will continue to be monitored for necessary adjustments as the evolution of preceding precipitation affects fuels receptivity. Over eastern Wyoming, brief marginally elevated wind/RH remain in the forecast. Given the recent snow cover and questionable fuel receptivity, the overall fire environment is not expected to result in any highlights over the central High Plains on Day 2/Tuesday. ..Stearns.. 04/06/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging over the West will continue to dampen on Day 2/Tuesday as an incoming trough over the Pacific Northwest moves eastward along the Canadian border and a second mid-level shortwave trough ejects eastward over the southern Great Plains. This will favor largely zonal flow across much of the central/northern Rockies. At the surface, a cold front will shift offshore of South Florida, with high pressure in place across the Midwest. A surface low will simultaneously shift eastward along the Canada/Montana border. ...Portions of eastern Georgia into the Florida Panhandle... Sustained northeasterly winds of 10-15 mph along the southern periphery of a surface high positioned across the Great Lakes region are forecast to overlap reduced RH values of 25-35% (locally lower) during peak mixing Tuesday afternoon. With receptive fuels in place across a region characterized by ongoing extreme/exceptional drought and little to no precipitation accumulation over the past 24-48 hours, this is expected to promote a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions from eastern Georgia southwestward into the central Florida Panhandle, including the Apalachicola National Forest. Additional light rainfall is possible tonight/tomorrow across portions of the northern Florida Peninsula into the eastern Panhandle (in the vicinity of the southern portions of the drawn area), and this will be monitored for future outlook issuances. ...Portions of the central High Plains... The aforementioned zonal flow across portions of the central/northern Rockies is expected to promote dry, downslope flow across portions of the central/northern High Plains. Latest guidance indicates that sustained westerly winds of 15-20 mph may briefly overlap reduced RH of 15-20% Tuesday afternoon across portions of eastern Wyoming. While this may promote locally elevated fire weather concerns across the region, Elevated highlights have been withheld at this time given the expected temporary overlap of elevated winds/RH. Trends will continue to be monitored. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across parts of the Florida Peninsula, the southern Rockies, and northern High Plains. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure over the Great Lakes and a cold front oriented across north-central FL into the Gulf will result in a mostly dry/stable boundary layer east of the Rockies. Ahead of the front across parts of the FL Peninsula, a seasonally moist and weakly unstable airmass will be in place. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the central/southern FL Peninsula and the Keys, though modest vertical shear and poor lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. Additional isolated to scattered storms are possible across portions of the Four Corners and southern Rockies vicinity. Midlevel moistening amid steep lapse rates will support weak destabilization as an upper shortwave trough moves across the region. This should support weak thunderstorm activity, though severe storms are not expected. Further north, another upper shortwave trough will move across the northern Rockies to the northern High Plains. While moisture will be limited (PW values generally less than .75 in), a few high-based thunderstorms will be possible across eastern MT and vicinity as steep midlevel lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft foster weak destabilization. Inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles may support locally gusty winds, but severe convection is not expected. ..Leitman.. 04/06/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across parts of the Florida Peninsula, the southern Rockies, and northern High Plains. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure over the Great Lakes and a cold front oriented across north-central FL into the Gulf will result in a mostly dry/stable boundary layer east of the Rockies. Ahead of the front across parts of the FL Peninsula, a seasonally moist and weakly unstable airmass will be in place. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the central/southern FL Peninsula and the Keys, though modest vertical shear and poor lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. Additional isolated to scattered storms are possible across portions of the Four Corners and southern Rockies vicinity. Midlevel moistening amid steep lapse rates will support weak destabilization as an upper shortwave trough moves across the region. This should support weak thunderstorm activity, though severe storms are not expected. Further north, another upper shortwave trough will move across the northern Rockies to the northern High Plains. While moisture will be limited (PW values generally less than .75 in), a few high-based thunderstorms will be possible across eastern MT and vicinity as steep midlevel lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft foster weak destabilization. Inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles may support locally gusty winds, but severe convection is not expected. ..Leitman.. 04/06/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across the Florida Peninsula and portions of the Southwest, Pacific Northwest, and eastern Great Lakes. While a few strong storms may occur across the central/southern Florida Peninsula, organized severe potential should remain low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Mean longwave troughing will remain over the eastern COUNS today, while a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances eastward across the Gulf towards the FL Peninsula by late tonight. At the surface, high pressure centered over the southern Plains to TN/OH Valleys will maintain offshore low-level trajectories and limited low-level moisture over a large majority of the CONUS. Still, isolated lightning flashes may occur today across parts of the eastern Great Lakes, Southwest, and Pacific Northwest in association with weak mid-level perturbations amid the presence of sufficient MUCAPE and modest lift. Greater low-level moisture (mid 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints) will remain confined along/south of a cold front draped across the central FL Peninsula. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across central/south FL as daytime heating erodes lingering MLCIN, especially across interior areas. With the low-amplitude shortwave trough remaining well to the west over the Gulf through the day, weak low/mid-level winds and meager deep-layer shear over land will likely limit updraft organization and severe potential. Still, occasional strong/gusty downburst winds may occur with the more robust cores as low-level lapse rates become steepened with continued diurnal heating. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 04/06/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across the Florida Peninsula and portions of the Southwest, Pacific Northwest, and eastern Great Lakes. While a few strong storms may occur across the central/southern Florida Peninsula, organized severe potential should remain low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Mean longwave troughing will remain over the eastern COUNS today, while a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances eastward across the Gulf towards the FL Peninsula by late tonight. At the surface, high pressure centered over the southern Plains to TN/OH Valleys will maintain offshore low-level trajectories and limited low-level moisture over a large majority of the CONUS. Still, isolated lightning flashes may occur today across parts of the eastern Great Lakes, Southwest, and Pacific Northwest in association with weak mid-level perturbations amid the presence of sufficient MUCAPE and modest lift. Greater low-level moisture (mid 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints) will remain confined along/south of a cold front draped across the central FL Peninsula. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across central/south FL as daytime heating erodes lingering MLCIN, especially across interior areas. With the low-amplitude shortwave trough remaining well to the west over the Gulf through the day, weak low/mid-level winds and meager deep-layer shear over land will likely limit updraft organization and severe potential. Still, occasional strong/gusty downburst winds may occur with the more robust cores as low-level lapse rates become steepened with continued diurnal heating. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 04/06/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Subtle expansions were made to the northeast corners of both the Critical and Elevated areas. This was done in agreement with the latest forecast guidance allowing for drier surface conditions to advect slightly farther north and east ahead of the approaching cold front. As of late morning, surface observations are already showing sustained southwest winds of 15-25 mph with RHs dropping below 30%. The frontal boundary, and associated change in wind direction from south-southwest to northeast, is currently forecast to move south through west-central Kansas and into the drawn areas around 8pm this evening. Almost all of the highlighted area is expected to drop below elevated criteria before the front becomes nearly stationary near the Colorado/Oklahoma border late tonight. ..Stearns.. 04/06/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging over the West will begin to dampen today ahead of an incoming mid-level trough shifting into the Pacific Northwest and as a second, more subtle, mid-level shortwave trough traverses eastward over the Southwest. Concurrently, longwave troughing will persist across the Northeast, with a cold front progressing slowly southward across the central Great Plains and Midwest. ...Portions of the central/southern High Plains... Surface high pressure across the southern Great Plains in tandem with a surface low forecast to strengthen over eastern Colorado will promote a tightened pressure gradient across portions of the central/southern High Plains today. Sustained south-southwesterly surface winds of 20-25 mph are forecast to overlap very low RH of 10-15% for several hours this afternoon. With dry conditions across the region on Sunday helping to further pre-condition already receptive fuels, this combination of wind/RH is expected to support Critical fire weather conditions across the western Oklahoma Panhandle, northern Texas Panhandle, northeastern New Mexico, southeastern Colorado, and southwestern Kansas. Meanwhile, sustained 15-20 mph surface winds overlapping low RH of 15-20% will promote elevated fire weather concerns across adjacent areas of the central/southern High Plains. Latest guidance consensus continues to suggest that the aforementioned, slow-moving cold front will approach the northern portions of the drawn area after sunset before becoming largely stationary. Areas that do see the passage of the cold front can expect a shift to east-northeasterly winds and at least some increase in relative humidity. The progression of this front will be closely monitored with future outlook issuances. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Subtle expansions were made to the northeast corners of both the Critical and Elevated areas. This was done in agreement with the latest forecast guidance allowing for drier surface conditions to advect slightly farther north and east ahead of the approaching cold front. As of late morning, surface observations are already showing sustained southwest winds of 15-25 mph with RHs dropping below 30%. The frontal boundary, and associated change in wind direction from south-southwest to northeast, is currently forecast to move south through west-central Kansas and into the drawn areas around 8pm this evening. Almost all of the highlighted area is expected to drop below elevated criteria before the front becomes nearly stationary near the Colorado/Oklahoma border late tonight. ..Stearns.. 04/06/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging over the West will begin to dampen today ahead of an incoming mid-level trough shifting into the Pacific Northwest and as a second, more subtle, mid-level shortwave trough traverses eastward over the Southwest. Concurrently, longwave troughing will persist across the Northeast, with a cold front progressing slowly southward across the central Great Plains and Midwest. ...Portions of the central/southern High Plains... Surface high pressure across the southern Great Plains in tandem with a surface low forecast to strengthen over eastern Colorado will promote a tightened pressure gradient across portions of the central/southern High Plains today. Sustained south-southwesterly surface winds of 20-25 mph are forecast to overlap very low RH of 10-15% for several hours this afternoon. With dry conditions across the region on Sunday helping to further pre-condition already receptive fuels, this combination of wind/RH is expected to support Critical fire weather conditions across the western Oklahoma Panhandle, northern Texas Panhandle, northeastern New Mexico, southeastern Colorado, and southwestern Kansas. Meanwhile, sustained 15-20 mph surface winds overlapping low RH of 15-20% will promote elevated fire weather concerns across adjacent areas of the central/southern High Plains. Latest guidance consensus continues to suggest that the aforementioned, slow-moving cold front will approach the northern portions of the drawn area after sunset before becoming largely stationary. Areas that do see the passage of the cold front can expect a shift to east-northeasterly winds and at least some increase in relative humidity. The progression of this front will be closely monitored with future outlook issuances. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Subtle expansions were made to the northeast corners of both the Critical and Elevated areas. This was done in agreement with the latest forecast guidance allowing for drier surface conditions to advect slightly farther north and east ahead of the approaching cold front. As of late morning, surface observations are already showing sustained southwest winds of 15-25 mph with RHs dropping below 30%. The frontal boundary, and associated change in wind direction from south-southwest to northeast, is currently forecast to move south through west-central Kansas and into the drawn areas around 8pm this evening. Almost all of the highlighted area is expected to drop below elevated criteria before the front becomes nearly stationary near the Colorado/Oklahoma border late tonight. ..Stearns.. 04/06/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging over the West will begin to dampen today ahead of an incoming mid-level trough shifting into the Pacific Northwest and as a second, more subtle, mid-level shortwave trough traverses eastward over the Southwest. Concurrently, longwave troughing will persist across the Northeast, with a cold front progressing slowly southward across the central Great Plains and Midwest. ...Portions of the central/southern High Plains... Surface high pressure across the southern Great Plains in tandem with a surface low forecast to strengthen over eastern Colorado will promote a tightened pressure gradient across portions of the central/southern High Plains today. Sustained south-southwesterly surface winds of 20-25 mph are forecast to overlap very low RH of 10-15% for several hours this afternoon. With dry conditions across the region on Sunday helping to further pre-condition already receptive fuels, this combination of wind/RH is expected to support Critical fire weather conditions across the western Oklahoma Panhandle, northern Texas Panhandle, northeastern New Mexico, southeastern Colorado, and southwestern Kansas. Meanwhile, sustained 15-20 mph surface winds overlapping low RH of 15-20% will promote elevated fire weather concerns across adjacent areas of the central/southern High Plains. Latest guidance consensus continues to suggest that the aforementioned, slow-moving cold front will approach the northern portions of the drawn area after sunset before becoming largely stationary. Areas that do see the passage of the cold front can expect a shift to east-northeasterly winds and at least some increase in relative humidity. The progression of this front will be closely monitored with future outlook issuances. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across the Florida Peninsula, and portions of the Four Corners, northern Rockies, and eastern Great Lakes. While a few strong storms may occur across the central/southern Florida Peninsula, organized severe potential is expected to remain low. ...Synopsis... The East will remain influenced by longwave troughing, while westerly quasi-zonal upper flow prevails elsewhere. Much of the northern, central, and eastern CONUS will be dominated by surface high pressure while surface lee troughing, with dry low-level trajectories, takes place over the southern High Plains. Thunderstorms are expected mainly this afternoon across the Florida Peninsula. A few embedded mid-level impulses, accompanied by cooler temperatures aloft, will foster enough lift amid scant buoyancy to encourage a few lightning flashes across the northern Rockies, Four Corners region, and the eastern Great Lakes today. ...Central/southern Florida Peninsula... Ample insolation/heating should occur today along and south of the slow-southward progressing front. This heating combined with easterly low-level winds should focus convergence and scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon across the interior peninsula. With the upstream shortwave trough not influencing the region until later tonight, mid-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor with weak deep-layer shear. Regardless, steepening low-level lapse rates should lead to increasing storm coverage and intensity this afternoon, particularly across the interior, and a few of these pulse-type storms could produce strong downburst-related gusty winds. However, it currently appears that severe-caliber wind gust potential will remain limited given the marginality of the overall scenario. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/06/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across the Florida Peninsula, and portions of the Four Corners, northern Rockies, and eastern Great Lakes. While a few strong storms may occur across the central/southern Florida Peninsula, organized severe potential is expected to remain low. ...Synopsis... The East will remain influenced by longwave troughing, while westerly quasi-zonal upper flow prevails elsewhere. Much of the northern, central, and eastern CONUS will be dominated by surface high pressure while surface lee troughing, with dry low-level trajectories, takes place over the southern High Plains. Thunderstorms are expected mainly this afternoon across the Florida Peninsula. A few embedded mid-level impulses, accompanied by cooler temperatures aloft, will foster enough lift amid scant buoyancy to encourage a few lightning flashes across the northern Rockies, Four Corners region, and the eastern Great Lakes today. ...Central/southern Florida Peninsula... Ample insolation/heating should occur today along and south of the slow-southward progressing front. This heating combined with easterly low-level winds should focus convergence and scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon across the interior peninsula. With the upstream shortwave trough not influencing the region until later tonight, mid-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor with weak deep-layer shear. Regardless, steepening low-level lapse rates should lead to increasing storm coverage and intensity this afternoon, particularly across the interior, and a few of these pulse-type storms could produce strong downburst-related gusty winds. However, it currently appears that severe-caliber wind gust potential will remain limited given the marginality of the overall scenario. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/06/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across the Florida Peninsula, and portions of the Four Corners, northern Rockies, and eastern Great Lakes. While a few strong storms may occur across the central/southern Florida Peninsula, organized severe potential is expected to remain low. ...Synopsis... The East will remain influenced by longwave troughing, while westerly quasi-zonal upper flow prevails elsewhere. Much of the northern, central, and eastern CONUS will be dominated by surface high pressure while surface lee troughing, with dry low-level trajectories, takes place over the southern High Plains. Thunderstorms are expected mainly this afternoon across the Florida Peninsula. A few embedded mid-level impulses, accompanied by cooler temperatures aloft, will foster enough lift amid scant buoyancy to encourage a few lightning flashes across the northern Rockies, Four Corners region, and the eastern Great Lakes today. ...Central/southern Florida Peninsula... Ample insolation/heating should occur today along and south of the slow-southward progressing front. This heating combined with easterly low-level winds should focus convergence and scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon across the interior peninsula. With the upstream shortwave trough not influencing the region until later tonight, mid-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor with weak deep-layer shear. Regardless, steepening low-level lapse rates should lead to increasing storm coverage and intensity this afternoon, particularly across the interior, and a few of these pulse-type storms could produce strong downburst-related gusty winds. However, it currently appears that severe-caliber wind gust potential will remain limited given the marginality of the overall scenario. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/06/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... From Thursday to Saturday, mid-level flow over the south-central U.S. is forecast to gradually transition from westerly to southwesterly. In response, low-level moisture advection will likely take place in the southern and central Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible near a front in the central Plains from late Thursday afternoon into the early overnight period, as a low-level jet strengthens. On Friday, weak instability is forecast to develop over much of the southern Plains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and evening across parts of this airmass. An isolated severe threat may develop in some areas, but deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak over much of the southern Plains, suggesting a more localized severe potential. On Saturday, the potential for severe storms is expected to increase over parts of southern High Plains, as mid-level southwesterly flow strengthens. Model consensus suggests that the greatest severe threat potential will be over parts of west Texas, where some models have an axis of moderate instability in place by late Saturday afternoon. Supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible in the afternoon and evening, with storms that develop near this instability axis. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... On Sunday, an upper-level low and an associated trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. Ahead of this trough, moderate instability is forecast to develop by Sunday afternoon over much of the southern High Plains. Scattered severe storms would be possible to the east of a west Texas dryline in the afternoon and evening. A severe threat should continue into the overnight as a low-level jet strengthens ahead of the approaching trough. On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the central U.S, with an axis of moisture and instability located in the Great Plains. Scattered severe storms will be possible from Monday into Monday night from the southern Plains northward into Upper Midwest. At this extended range, there is still considerable uncertainty concerning the timing of the trough. For this reason, will hold off on a threat area until the models show better agreement. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... From Thursday to Saturday, mid-level flow over the south-central U.S. is forecast to gradually transition from westerly to southwesterly. In response, low-level moisture advection will likely take place in the southern and central Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible near a front in the central Plains from late Thursday afternoon into the early overnight period, as a low-level jet strengthens. On Friday, weak instability is forecast to develop over much of the southern Plains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and evening across parts of this airmass. An isolated severe threat may develop in some areas, but deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak over much of the southern Plains, suggesting a more localized severe potential. On Saturday, the potential for severe storms is expected to increase over parts of southern High Plains, as mid-level southwesterly flow strengthens. Model consensus suggests that the greatest severe threat potential will be over parts of west Texas, where some models have an axis of moderate instability in place by late Saturday afternoon. Supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible in the afternoon and evening, with storms that develop near this instability axis. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... On Sunday, an upper-level low and an associated trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. Ahead of this trough, moderate instability is forecast to develop by Sunday afternoon over much of the southern High Plains. Scattered severe storms would be possible to the east of a west Texas dryline in the afternoon and evening. A severe threat should continue into the overnight as a low-level jet strengthens ahead of the approaching trough. On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the central U.S, with an axis of moisture and instability located in the Great Plains. Scattered severe storms will be possible from Monday into Monday night from the southern Plains northward into Upper Midwest. At this extended range, there is still considerable uncertainty concerning the timing of the trough. For this reason, will hold off on a threat area until the models show better agreement. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... From Thursday to Saturday, mid-level flow over the south-central U.S. is forecast to gradually transition from westerly to southwesterly. In response, low-level moisture advection will likely take place in the southern and central Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible near a front in the central Plains from late Thursday afternoon into the early overnight period, as a low-level jet strengthens. On Friday, weak instability is forecast to develop over much of the southern Plains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and evening across parts of this airmass. An isolated severe threat may develop in some areas, but deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak over much of the southern Plains, suggesting a more localized severe potential. On Saturday, the potential for severe storms is expected to increase over parts of southern High Plains, as mid-level southwesterly flow strengthens. Model consensus suggests that the greatest severe threat potential will be over parts of west Texas, where some models have an axis of moderate instability in place by late Saturday afternoon. Supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible in the afternoon and evening, with storms that develop near this instability axis. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... On Sunday, an upper-level low and an associated trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. Ahead of this trough, moderate instability is forecast to develop by Sunday afternoon over much of the southern High Plains. Scattered severe storms would be possible to the east of a west Texas dryline in the afternoon and evening. A severe threat should continue into the overnight as a low-level jet strengthens ahead of the approaching trough. On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the central U.S, with an axis of moisture and instability located in the Great Plains. Scattered severe storms will be possible from Monday into Monday night from the southern Plains northward into Upper Midwest. At this extended range, there is still considerable uncertainty concerning the timing of the trough. For this reason, will hold off on a threat area until the models show better agreement. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible in parts of the central Plains Wednesday night. ...Central Plains... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central U.S. on Wednesday, as low-level moisture advection takes place in the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a cold front from will advance southward into the central Plains. By Wednesday evening, the front is forecast to stall over northern Kansas, with scattered thunderstorms developing near and to the northern boundary. NAM forecast soundings in the vicinity of the front late Wednesday evening have a low-level temperature inversion with MUCAPE near 1200 J/kg. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast around 8 C/km with effective shear near 40 knots. This environment should support a threat for isolated large hail with elevated supercells. The threat may continue into the overnight period, as a low-level jet strengthens. ..Broyles.. 04/06/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible in parts of the central Plains Wednesday night. ...Central Plains... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central U.S. on Wednesday, as low-level moisture advection takes place in the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a cold front from will advance southward into the central Plains. By Wednesday evening, the front is forecast to stall over northern Kansas, with scattered thunderstorms developing near and to the northern boundary. NAM forecast soundings in the vicinity of the front late Wednesday evening have a low-level temperature inversion with MUCAPE near 1200 J/kg. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast around 8 C/km with effective shear near 40 knots. This environment should support a threat for isolated large hail with elevated supercells. The threat may continue into the overnight period, as a low-level jet strengthens. ..Broyles.. 04/06/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible in parts of the central Plains Wednesday night. ...Central Plains... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central U.S. on Wednesday, as low-level moisture advection takes place in the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a cold front from will advance southward into the central Plains. By Wednesday evening, the front is forecast to stall over northern Kansas, with scattered thunderstorms developing near and to the northern boundary. NAM forecast soundings in the vicinity of the front late Wednesday evening have a low-level temperature inversion with MUCAPE near 1200 J/kg. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast around 8 C/km with effective shear near 40 knots. This environment should support a threat for isolated large hail with elevated supercells. The threat may continue into the overnight period, as a low-level jet strengthens. ..Broyles.. 04/06/2026 Read more