SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 071300Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across parts
of the Florida Peninsula, the southern Rockies, and northern High
Plains. Severe thunderstorm potential is currently expected to
remain low.
...Synopsis...
Split/nearly zonal upper-level flow will prevail across most of the
CONUS to the south of an amplifying trough from the Canadian Rockies
southeastward toward the northern High Plains, and in the wake of
low-amplitude troughs crossing both New England and Florida today.
...Florida Peninsula...
Scattered thunderstorms should increase across the Florida Peninsula
into the afternoon, influenced by the passing mid-level trough and
sea-breeze convergence in the presence of a very moist airmass. A
few of the storms across the southern Florida Peninsula could
produce locally strong thunderstorm winds, but severe potential
should remain relatively low.
...Northern High Plains...
Isolated high-based storms are expected across the northern High
Plains, including eastern Montana into western North Dakota, aided
by the approach of the aforementioned upper trough. Storms will
develop atop a relatively dry/well-mixed boundary layer, but with
very limited buoyancy overall. Given the dry boundary layer and
strengthening mid-tropospheric winds, strong and gusty winds may
accompany this convection during the late afternoon until around
sunset.
..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/07/2026
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6...
An upper-level trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific on
Friday into the western U.S. on Saturday, as southwest mid-level
flow gradually strengthens over the south-central states. In
response, low-level moisture advection will continue over the Great
Plains. Ahead of the western U.S. trough, a subtle shortwave trough
is forecast to move into the southern High Plains Saturday
afternoon. A severe threat will be possible ahead of and near the
trough during the afternoon and evening.
On Sunday, the western U.S. upper-level trough is forecast to move
quickly east-northeastward into the southern Rockies. Ahead of the
trough, a moist and moderately unstable airmass is forecast over
much of the southern and central Plains by afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms appear likely to develop over much of this airmass
during the afternoon and evening. Moderate to strong deep-layer
shear appear likely to be in place, which will be favorable for
severe storms. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a
tornado threat will be possible. An isolated severe threat may also
develop in parts of the north-central U.S.
...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8...
A secondary upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Desert
Southwest on Monday. Ahead of this system, a moist and unstable
airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains
north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Although a severe threat
will be possible along much of the instability corridor, the
greatest threat is expected to develop in the southern Plains, where
model forecasts show the most favorable environment.
On Tuesday, model forecasts have some agreement concerning the
timing of the trough, which is forecast to eject northeastward
across the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the trough, there
is large variance among the models concerning the distribution of
instability. If a moderately unstable airmass is in place by Tuesday
afternoon ahead of the ejecting system, a severe threat will be
likely from the southern Plains into the mid to upper Mississippi
Valley. However, the system will probably be slower than forecast,
which adds considerable uncertainty this late in the period.
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
An isolated threat for large hail and severe wind gusts is expected
to develop on Thursday in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley
westward into the central Plains. Isolated severe storms with hail
may also develop in the southern High Plains.
...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
A mid-levels, a broad cyclonic flow pattern will be in place on
Thursday over much of the northern U.S., with westerly flow in the
central states. At the surface, a slow moving front is forecast to
remain over western and northern Kansas extending eastward into
northern Missouri. The front will be a focus for convection during
the afternoon and evening, with scattered thunderstorms becoming
likely. NAM forecast soundings near the front by early evening have
MUCAPE ranging from around 2500 J/kg in north-central Kansas to
around 1200 J/kg in northern Missouri. Effective shear along much of
this east-to-west corridor is forecast to be from 35 to 45 knots,
with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 to 8 C/km. This should support a
marginal severe threat. Supercells with isolated large hail and
strong wind gusts will be possible.
...Southern High Plains...
An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the
Intermountain West on Thursday, as westerly mid-level flow remains
in place over the south-central U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass
will be located across the southern Plains. A dryline is forecast to
develop over west Texas by Thursday afternoon. Although large-scale
ascent will remain weak, low-level convergence near the dryline may
be enough for isolated convective initiation. Model forecasts
suggest that an axis of moderate instability will be in place to the
east of the dryline by afternoon, with MLCAPE in the 1200 to 1500
J/kg range. In addition, steep mid-level lapse rates will be in
place. This should support an isolated large hail threat with any
cells that can initiate, in spite of the limited forcing.
..Broyles.. 04/07/2026
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
An isolated threat for large hail and severe wind gusts is expected
to develop on Thursday in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley
westward into the central Plains. Isolated severe storms with hail
may also develop in the southern High Plains.
...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
A mid-levels, a broad cyclonic flow pattern will be in place on
Thursday over much of the northern U.S., with westerly flow in the
central states. At the surface, a slow moving front is forecast to
remain over western and northern Kansas extending eastward into
northern Missouri. The front will be a focus for convection during
the afternoon and evening, with scattered thunderstorms becoming
likely. NAM forecast soundings near the front by early evening have
MUCAPE ranging from around 2500 J/kg in north-central Kansas to
around 1200 J/kg in northern Missouri. Effective shear along much of
this east-to-west corridor is forecast to be from 35 to 45 knots,
with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 to 8 C/km. This should support a
marginal severe threat. Supercells with isolated large hail and
strong wind gusts will be possible.
...Southern High Plains...
An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the
Intermountain West on Thursday, as westerly mid-level flow remains
in place over the south-central U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass
will be located across the southern Plains. A dryline is forecast to
develop over west Texas by Thursday afternoon. Although large-scale
ascent will remain weak, low-level convergence near the dryline may
be enough for isolated convective initiation. Model forecasts
suggest that an axis of moderate instability will be in place to the
east of the dryline by afternoon, with MLCAPE in the 1200 to 1500
J/kg range. In addition, steep mid-level lapse rates will be in
place. This should support an isolated large hail threat with any
cells that can initiate, in spite of the limited forcing.
..Broyles.. 04/07/2026
Read more
MD 0365 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWESTERN IOWA AND EXTREME NORTHERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0365
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Areas affected...portions of eastern Nebraska into southwestern Iowa
and extreme northern Missouri
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 070536Z - 071130Z
SUMMARY...Snowfall rates may occasionally exceed 1 inch per hour
tonight from far eastern Nebraska into portions of southwestern Iowa
and extreme northern Missouri in association with a heavier band of
precipitation.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery depicts an ongoing precipitation
band extending from portions of eastern Nebraska into northeastern
Missouri within a corridor of strong 700-600 mb frontogenesis. While
surface temperatures remain just above freezing in the mid-30s F,
continued low-level evaporative cooling amid weak cold, dry air
advection will support decreasing surface temperatures and a
transition from rain to snow as the primary precipitation type over
the next few hours. The aforementioned frontogenetic forcing and
favorable jet streak dynamics aloft are expected to contribute to
strong ascent within the dendritic growth zone, which may promote
occasional snowfall rates of 1 inch or more per hour within the
heaviest portions of the band.
Some uncertainty does remain regarding the degree of low-level
cooling, however, with some guidance suggesting that temperatures
within a low-level warm layer (evident around 850 mb in the 00Z OAX
sounding) may remain just above freezing. Should this occur, a
snow/sleet mix would be more likely.
..Chalmers.. 04/07/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...
LAT...LON 40369388 40509435 40839522 40979566 41069616 41129656
41289677 41539682 41719657 41729575 41449459 41149400
40939366 40659343 40409364 40369388
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will persist across the Southwest on
D2/Wednesday as an upper-level trough progresses eastward along the
Canadian border. A closed upper-level low will simultaneously
approach the California coastline. At the surface, a cold front will
progress slowly southward across the central Great Plains while a
surface high shifts offshore of the Mid-Atlantic.
...Portions of southwestern South Carolina into western Georgia...
Surface high pressure to the north will continue to favor
northeasterly flow across much of the Southeast. Sustained surface
winds of 10-15 mph are forecast to overlap reduced RH of 25-35%
during peak mixing Wednesday afternoon. With dry, receptive fuels in
place across the area, this is expected to promote elevated fire
weather concerns from southwestern South Carolina into portions of
western Georgia. Latest high-res guidance indicates some potential
for locally critical conditions across portions of eastern Georgia;
however, Critical highlights have been withheld at this time due to
uncertainty regarding coverage and duration of sustained surface
winds of 15+ mph. Trends will continue to be monitored for future
issuances.
...Portions of the central/southern High Plains...
Northwesterly flow across the central/southern Rockies will favor
lee troughing across portions of the central/southern High Plains.
This is expected to support a weak downslope wind regime for
D2/Wednesday. While minimum RH values are forecast in the 10-15%
range, latest guidance indicates sustained surface winds will remain
less than 15 mph across much of the region. Thus, widespread
elevated fire weather conditions are not expected at this time.
Locally elevated conditions will be possible in gap flow and other
favorable areas for terrain enhanced winds, however.
..Chalmers.. 04/07/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will persist across the Southwest on
D2/Wednesday as an upper-level trough progresses eastward along the
Canadian border. A closed upper-level low will simultaneously
approach the California coastline. At the surface, a cold front will
progress slowly southward across the central Great Plains while a
surface high shifts offshore of the Mid-Atlantic.
...Portions of southwestern South Carolina into western Georgia...
Surface high pressure to the north will continue to favor
northeasterly flow across much of the Southeast. Sustained surface
winds of 10-15 mph are forecast to overlap reduced RH of 25-35%
during peak mixing Wednesday afternoon. With dry, receptive fuels in
place across the area, this is expected to promote elevated fire
weather concerns from southwestern South Carolina into portions of
western Georgia. Latest high-res guidance indicates some potential
for locally critical conditions across portions of eastern Georgia;
however, Critical highlights have been withheld at this time due to
uncertainty regarding coverage and duration of sustained surface
winds of 15+ mph. Trends will continue to be monitored for future
issuances.
...Portions of the central/southern High Plains...
Northwesterly flow across the central/southern Rockies will favor
lee troughing across portions of the central/southern High Plains.
This is expected to support a weak downslope wind regime for
D2/Wednesday. While minimum RH values are forecast in the 10-15%
range, latest guidance indicates sustained surface winds will remain
less than 15 mph across much of the region. Thus, widespread
elevated fire weather conditions are not expected at this time.
Locally elevated conditions will be possible in gap flow and other
favorable areas for terrain enhanced winds, however.
..Chalmers.. 04/07/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
GEORGIA...
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will continue to dampen across the West today as
a mid-level shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest moves
eastward along the Canadian border and a second mid-level shortwave
trough ejects eastward over southwestern Texas. This will promote
largely zonal flow across much of the central/northern Rockies. At
the surface, a cold front will shift offshore of South Florida, with
high pressure in place across the Midwest. A second frontal system
will simultaneously shift eastward across the northern Great Plains.
...Portions of eastern Georgia into the Florida Panhandle...
Sustained northeasterly winds of 10-20 mph along the southern
periphery of a surface high positioned across the Great Lakes region
are forecast to overlap minimum RH values of 20-30% during peak
mixing Tuesday afternoon. With receptive fuels in place across a
region characterized by ongoing extreme/exceptional drought, this is
expected to promote elevated to critical fire weather conditions
from eastern Georgia into the central Florida Panhandle, especially
across areas that did not see appreciable rainfall accumulations
over the past 24-48 hours.
..Chalmers.. 04/07/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
GEORGIA...
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will continue to dampen across the West today as
a mid-level shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest moves
eastward along the Canadian border and a second mid-level shortwave
trough ejects eastward over southwestern Texas. This will promote
largely zonal flow across much of the central/northern Rockies. At
the surface, a cold front will shift offshore of South Florida, with
high pressure in place across the Midwest. A second frontal system
will simultaneously shift eastward across the northern Great Plains.
...Portions of eastern Georgia into the Florida Panhandle...
Sustained northeasterly winds of 10-20 mph along the southern
periphery of a surface high positioned across the Great Lakes region
are forecast to overlap minimum RH values of 20-30% during peak
mixing Tuesday afternoon. With receptive fuels in place across a
region characterized by ongoing extreme/exceptional drought, this is
expected to promote elevated to critical fire weather conditions
from eastern Georgia into the central Florida Panhandle, especially
across areas that did not see appreciable rainfall accumulations
over the past 24-48 hours.
..Chalmers.. 04/07/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible in parts of
western and central Kansas late Wednesday afternoon into the
evening.
...Western and Central Kansas...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central
U.S. on Wednesday. Ahead of the system, a broad low-level jet will
move through the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southeastward across the central Plains on Wednesday, with
moisture advection occurring to the south of the front over much of
the region. By early evening, the front is forecast to be located
across northern Kansas. As low-level convergence increases along the
front during the late afternoon, convective initiation will become
likely. A broken line of thunderstorms is expected to develop in
northern and western Kansas, moving southeastward into south-central
Kansas during the evening. The NAM forecast sounding at Garden City,
Kansas late Wednesday afternoon has MUCAPE near 750 J/kg with about
35 knots of effective shear and 850-500 mb lapse rates greater 8
C/km. This should be enough for isolated large hail with the
stronger cells. The hail threat should continue into the early to
mid evening, as a low-level jet ramps up across over the central
Plains.
..Broyles.. 04/07/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible in parts of
western and central Kansas late Wednesday afternoon into the
evening.
...Western and Central Kansas...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central
U.S. on Wednesday. Ahead of the system, a broad low-level jet will
move through the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southeastward across the central Plains on Wednesday, with
moisture advection occurring to the south of the front over much of
the region. By early evening, the front is forecast to be located
across northern Kansas. As low-level convergence increases along the
front during the late afternoon, convective initiation will become
likely. A broken line of thunderstorms is expected to develop in
northern and western Kansas, moving southeastward into south-central
Kansas during the evening. The NAM forecast sounding at Garden City,
Kansas late Wednesday afternoon has MUCAPE near 750 J/kg with about
35 knots of effective shear and 850-500 mb lapse rates greater 8
C/km. This should be enough for isolated large hail with the
stronger cells. The hail threat should continue into the early to
mid evening, as a low-level jet ramps up across over the central
Plains.
..Broyles.. 04/07/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across parts
of the Florida Peninsula, the southern Rockies, and northern High
Plains. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject over the Atlantic while another
pronounced mid-level trough rapidly traverses the northern Rockies
today. Meanwhile, multiple low-amplitude impulses traversing
relatively zonal upper flow will overspread the Southwest and the FL
Peninsula. Across the Southern Rockies, enough lift amid cool air
aloft (and thus scant buoyancy) should accompany the aforementioned
low-amplitude mid-level impulse to support isolated to potentially
scattered thunderstorm development. Scattered thunderstorms may also
develop across the FL Peninsula along sea-breeze boundaries given a
moist, heated low-level airmass. Scattered high-based/low-topped
storms are likely across the northern High Plains with the approach
of the upper trough. Storms will develop atop a deep and dry
boundary layer, but with scant buoyancy. Given the dry boundary
layer, gusty conditions may accompany the stronger storms. However,
the severe wind threat currently appears too low for the
introduction of a Category 1/Marginal risk at this time.
..Squitieri/Chalmers.. 04/07/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across parts
of the Florida Peninsula, the southern Rockies, and northern High
Plains. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject over the Atlantic while another
pronounced mid-level trough rapidly traverses the northern Rockies
today. Meanwhile, multiple low-amplitude impulses traversing
relatively zonal upper flow will overspread the Southwest and the FL
Peninsula. Across the Southern Rockies, enough lift amid cool air
aloft (and thus scant buoyancy) should accompany the aforementioned
low-amplitude mid-level impulse to support isolated to potentially
scattered thunderstorm development. Scattered thunderstorms may also
develop across the FL Peninsula along sea-breeze boundaries given a
moist, heated low-level airmass. Scattered high-based/low-topped
storms are likely across the northern High Plains with the approach
of the upper trough. Storms will develop atop a deep and dry
boundary layer, but with scant buoyancy. Given the dry boundary
layer, gusty conditions may accompany the stronger storms. However,
the severe wind threat currently appears too low for the
introduction of a Category 1/Marginal risk at this time.
..Squitieri/Chalmers.. 04/07/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 070100Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms remain possible this evening across portions of
the Pacific Northwest, Desert Southwest, and Florida Peninsula.
...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough continues to progress across the Northeast,
with upper ridging persisting over the Northwest, and a
low-amplitude impulse impinging on the Southwest this evening.
Across the Northwest and Southwest, colder air aloft is supporting
scant buoyancy, which will continue to promote the potential for a
couple of lightning flashes through early tonight. Thunderstorms
continue to benefit from a moist, unstable environment across the
central and southern FL Peninsula. Storms should gradually weaken
this evening with the onset of nocturnal cooling.
..Squitieri.. 04/07/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 070100Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms remain possible this evening across portions of
the Pacific Northwest, Desert Southwest, and Florida Peninsula.
...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough continues to progress across the Northeast,
with upper ridging persisting over the Northwest, and a
low-amplitude impulse impinging on the Southwest this evening.
Across the Northwest and Southwest, colder air aloft is supporting
scant buoyancy, which will continue to promote the potential for a
couple of lightning flashes through early tonight. Thunderstorms
continue to benefit from a moist, unstable environment across the
central and southern FL Peninsula. Storms should gradually weaken
this evening with the onset of nocturnal cooling.
..Squitieri.. 04/07/2026
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 141200Z
An upper-level trough will be progressing eastward along the
Canadian border with the base of the jet over the northern Plains on
Day 3/Wednesday. A cutoff upper-level low approaches the California
coast simultaneously on Day 3/Wednesday. However, it's not until Day
5/Friday into Day 6/Saturday that the center of the low finally
moves onshore as a result of another trough moving across the
northern Pacific. By Day 7/Sunday, this upper-level low also cuts
off, sending the first cutoff low northeastward across the Great
Plains and Midwest by Day 8/Monday. This scenario is likely to
result in multiple days of precipitation across much of the western
and central US, which would temporarily dampen fire weather threats.
Sporadic areas of little to no precipitation will be possible, but
difficult to pin point due to the highly dynamic pattern.
...Southeast (Day 3/Wednesday)...
With surface high pressure still to the north over the eastern Great
Lakes, continued offshore flow will likely contribute to at least
elevated fire weather conditions across eastern Georgia and southern
South Carolina. This regime will result in northeast 10-15 mph winds
combined with RHs down to 25-35% during the peak heating period.
...Southern Plains (Day 3/Wednesday and Day 7/Sunday)...
Another day of tightened surface pressure gradient supports
south-southwest winds up to 15 mph and RHs down to 10-15% over
portions of the southern High Plains on Day 3/Wednesday. Much of
this region is favored for accumulating precipitation as the
aforementioned low pressure system ejects eastward across the
central portions of the CONUS next weekend. However, the latest
forecast guidance indicates that some locations may struggle to
accumulate much rainfall. If this trend holds true, future areas of
critical probabilities may be needed as the forecast becomes more
clear.
...Great Basin/Southwest (Day 3/Wednesday through Day 5/Friday)...
The best chances for sporadic fire weather conditions under the
southerly flow will occur on Day 3/Wednesday through Day 5/Friday
across areas of the eastern Great Basin and Southwest. However,
recent cooler weather, precipitation, and resultant questionably
receptive fuels will preclude any probabilities at this time. While
this event could promote a brief period of drier fuel conditions
across this region, additional precipitation also appears likely
with the aforementioned low pressure system later in the week.
..Stearns.. 04/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 141200Z
An upper-level trough will be progressing eastward along the
Canadian border with the base of the jet over the northern Plains on
Day 3/Wednesday. A cutoff upper-level low approaches the California
coast simultaneously on Day 3/Wednesday. However, it's not until Day
5/Friday into Day 6/Saturday that the center of the low finally
moves onshore as a result of another trough moving across the
northern Pacific. By Day 7/Sunday, this upper-level low also cuts
off, sending the first cutoff low northeastward across the Great
Plains and Midwest by Day 8/Monday. This scenario is likely to
result in multiple days of precipitation across much of the western
and central US, which would temporarily dampen fire weather threats.
Sporadic areas of little to no precipitation will be possible, but
difficult to pin point due to the highly dynamic pattern.
...Southeast (Day 3/Wednesday)...
With surface high pressure still to the north over the eastern Great
Lakes, continued offshore flow will likely contribute to at least
elevated fire weather conditions across eastern Georgia and southern
South Carolina. This regime will result in northeast 10-15 mph winds
combined with RHs down to 25-35% during the peak heating period.
...Southern Plains (Day 3/Wednesday and Day 7/Sunday)...
Another day of tightened surface pressure gradient supports
south-southwest winds up to 15 mph and RHs down to 10-15% over
portions of the southern High Plains on Day 3/Wednesday. Much of
this region is favored for accumulating precipitation as the
aforementioned low pressure system ejects eastward across the
central portions of the CONUS next weekend. However, the latest
forecast guidance indicates that some locations may struggle to
accumulate much rainfall. If this trend holds true, future areas of
critical probabilities may be needed as the forecast becomes more
clear.
...Great Basin/Southwest (Day 3/Wednesday through Day 5/Friday)...
The best chances for sporadic fire weather conditions under the
southerly flow will occur on Day 3/Wednesday through Day 5/Friday
across areas of the eastern Great Basin and Southwest. However,
recent cooler weather, precipitation, and resultant questionably
receptive fuels will preclude any probabilities at this time. While
this event could promote a brief period of drier fuel conditions
across this region, additional precipitation also appears likely
with the aforementioned low pressure system later in the week.
..Stearns.. 04/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 062000Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across the
Florida Peninsula and portions of the Southwest, Pacific Northwest,
and eastern Great Lakes. While a few strong storms may occur across
the central/southern Florida Peninsula, organized severe potential
should remain low.
...20z Update...
No changes are need to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 04/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026/
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Mean longwave troughing will remain over the eastern COUNS today,
while a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances eastward across the
Gulf towards the FL Peninsula by late tonight. At the surface, high
pressure centered over the southern Plains to TN/OH Valleys will
maintain offshore low-level trajectories and limited low-level
moisture over a large majority of the CONUS. Still, isolated
lightning flashes may occur today across parts of the eastern Great
Lakes, Southwest, and Pacific Northwest in association with weak
mid-level perturbations amid the presence of sufficient MUCAPE and
modest lift.
Greater low-level moisture (mid 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints)
will remain confined along/south of a cold front draped across the
central FL Peninsula. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop this afternoon across central/south FL as
daytime heating erodes lingering MLCIN, especially across interior
areas. With the low-amplitude shortwave trough remaining well to the
west over the Gulf through the day, weak low/mid-level winds and
meager deep-layer shear over land will likely limit updraft
organization and severe potential. Still, occasional strong/gusty
downburst winds may occur with the more robust cores as low-level
lapse rates become steepened with continued diurnal heating.
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