SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging over the West will continue to dampen on Day
2/Tuesday as an incoming trough over the Pacific Northwest moves
eastward along the Canadian border and a second mid-level shortwave
trough ejects eastward over the southern Great Plains. This will
favor largely zonal flow across much of the central/northern
Rockies. At the surface, a cold front will shift offshore of South
Florida, with high pressure in place across the Midwest. A surface
low will simultaneously shift eastward along the Canada/Montana
border.
...Portions of eastern Georgia into the Florida Panhandle...
Sustained northeasterly winds of 10-15 mph along the southern
periphery of a surface high positioned across the Great Lakes region
are forecast to overlap reduced RH values of 25-35% (locally lower)
during peak mixing Tuesday afternoon. With receptive fuels in place
across a region characterized by ongoing extreme/exceptional drought
and little to no precipitation accumulation over the past 24-48
hours, this is expected to promote a few hours of elevated to
locally critical fire weather conditions from eastern Georgia
southwestward into the central Florida Panhandle, including the
Apalachicola National Forest. Additional light rainfall is possible
tonight/tomorrow across portions of the northern Florida Peninsula
into the eastern Panhandle (in the vicinity of the southern portions
of the drawn area), and this will be monitored for future outlook
issuances.
...Portions of the central High Plains...
The aforementioned zonal flow across portions of the
central/northern Rockies is expected to promote dry, downslope flow
across portions of the central/northern High Plains. Latest guidance
indicates that sustained westerly winds of 15-20 mph may briefly
overlap reduced RH of 15-20% Tuesday afternoon across portions of
eastern Wyoming. While this may promote locally elevated fire
weather concerns across the region, Elevated highlights have been
withheld at this time given the expected temporary overlap of
elevated winds/RH. Trends will continue to be monitored.
..Chalmers.. 04/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging over the West will continue to dampen on Day
2/Tuesday as an incoming trough over the Pacific Northwest moves
eastward along the Canadian border and a second mid-level shortwave
trough ejects eastward over the southern Great Plains. This will
favor largely zonal flow across much of the central/northern
Rockies. At the surface, a cold front will shift offshore of South
Florida, with high pressure in place across the Midwest. A surface
low will simultaneously shift eastward along the Canada/Montana
border.
...Portions of eastern Georgia into the Florida Panhandle...
Sustained northeasterly winds of 10-15 mph along the southern
periphery of a surface high positioned across the Great Lakes region
are forecast to overlap reduced RH values of 25-35% (locally lower)
during peak mixing Tuesday afternoon. With receptive fuels in place
across a region characterized by ongoing extreme/exceptional drought
and little to no precipitation accumulation over the past 24-48
hours, this is expected to promote a few hours of elevated to
locally critical fire weather conditions from eastern Georgia
southwestward into the central Florida Panhandle, including the
Apalachicola National Forest. Additional light rainfall is possible
tonight/tomorrow across portions of the northern Florida Peninsula
into the eastern Panhandle (in the vicinity of the southern portions
of the drawn area), and this will be monitored for future outlook
issuances.
...Portions of the central High Plains...
The aforementioned zonal flow across portions of the
central/northern Rockies is expected to promote dry, downslope flow
across portions of the central/northern High Plains. Latest guidance
indicates that sustained westerly winds of 15-20 mph may briefly
overlap reduced RH of 15-20% Tuesday afternoon across portions of
eastern Wyoming. While this may promote locally elevated fire
weather concerns across the region, Elevated highlights have been
withheld at this time given the expected temporary overlap of
elevated winds/RH. Trends will continue to be monitored.
..Chalmers.. 04/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging over the West will begin to dampen today ahead
of an incoming mid-level trough shifting into the Pacific Northwest
and as a second, more subtle, mid-level shortwave trough traverses
eastward over the Southwest. Concurrently, longwave troughing will
persist across the Northeast, with a cold front progressing slowly
southward across the central Great Plains and Midwest.
...Portions of the central/southern High Plains...
Surface high pressure across the southern Great Plains in tandem
with a surface low forecast to strengthen over eastern Colorado will
promote a tightened pressure gradient across portions of the
central/southern High Plains today. Sustained south-southwesterly
surface winds of 20-25 mph are forecast to overlap very low RH of
10-15% for several hours this afternoon. With dry conditions across
the region on Sunday helping to further pre-condition already
receptive fuels, this combination of wind/RH is expected to support
Critical fire weather conditions across the western Oklahoma
Panhandle, northern Texas Panhandle, northeastern New Mexico,
southeastern Colorado, and southwestern Kansas. Meanwhile, sustained
15-20 mph surface winds overlapping low RH of 15-20% will promote
elevated fire weather concerns across adjacent areas of the
central/southern High Plains.
Latest guidance consensus continues to suggest that the
aforementioned, slow-moving cold front will approach the northern
portions of the drawn area after sunset before becoming largely
stationary. Areas that do see the passage of the cold front can
expect a shift to east-northeasterly winds and at least some
increase in relative humidity. The progression of this front will be
closely monitored with future outlook issuances.
..Chalmers.. 04/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging over the West will begin to dampen today ahead
of an incoming mid-level trough shifting into the Pacific Northwest
and as a second, more subtle, mid-level shortwave trough traverses
eastward over the Southwest. Concurrently, longwave troughing will
persist across the Northeast, with a cold front progressing slowly
southward across the central Great Plains and Midwest.
...Portions of the central/southern High Plains...
Surface high pressure across the southern Great Plains in tandem
with a surface low forecast to strengthen over eastern Colorado will
promote a tightened pressure gradient across portions of the
central/southern High Plains today. Sustained south-southwesterly
surface winds of 20-25 mph are forecast to overlap very low RH of
10-15% for several hours this afternoon. With dry conditions across
the region on Sunday helping to further pre-condition already
receptive fuels, this combination of wind/RH is expected to support
Critical fire weather conditions across the western Oklahoma
Panhandle, northern Texas Panhandle, northeastern New Mexico,
southeastern Colorado, and southwestern Kansas. Meanwhile, sustained
15-20 mph surface winds overlapping low RH of 15-20% will promote
elevated fire weather concerns across adjacent areas of the
central/southern High Plains.
Latest guidance consensus continues to suggest that the
aforementioned, slow-moving cold front will approach the northern
portions of the drawn area after sunset before becoming largely
stationary. Areas that do see the passage of the cold front can
expect a shift to east-northeasterly winds and at least some
increase in relative humidity. The progression of this front will be
closely monitored with future outlook issuances.
..Chalmers.. 04/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across
parts of the Florida Peninsula, and in the southern Rockies. No
severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.
...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move through the Northeast on Tuesday, as
a cold front moves slowly across the Florida Peninsula. South of the
boundary, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to weak
instability. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible within this
airmass, mainly across the southern and central Florida Peninsula in
the afternoon. Additional storms are expected on Tuesday from far
west Texas northward into the southern Rockies. No severe threat is
forecast across the continental U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.
..Broyles.. 04/06/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across
parts of the Florida Peninsula, and in the southern Rockies. No
severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.
...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move through the Northeast on Tuesday, as
a cold front moves slowly across the Florida Peninsula. South of the
boundary, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to weak
instability. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible within this
airmass, mainly across the southern and central Florida Peninsula in
the afternoon. Additional storms are expected on Tuesday from far
west Texas northward into the southern Rockies. No severe threat is
forecast across the continental U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.
..Broyles.. 04/06/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across the
Florida Peninsula, and portions of the Four Corners, northern
Rockies, and eastern Great Lakes. No severe threat is forecast.
...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will begin exiting the Northeast and
overspreading the Atlantic as another mid-level trough impinges on
the Pacific Northwest and a lower amplitude impulse traverses the
Southwest today. Much of the northern, central, and eastern CONUS
will be dominated by surface high pressure while surface lee
troughing, with dry low-level trajectories, takes place over the
southern High Plains. As such, convective potential will be limited
over the much of the U.S. with few exceptions. A few embedded
mid-level impulses, accompanied by cooler temperatures aloft, will
foster enough lift amid scant buoyancy to encourage a few lightning
flashes across the northern Rockies, Four Corners region, and the
eastern Great Lakes today.
The best chance for organized thunderstorm potential will be over
the FL Peninsula, where ample low-level moisture will exist in
proximity to a stalled frontal boundary. Afternoon peak heating will
support scattered thunderstorm development amid tall, thin CAPE
profiles, but relatively poor vertical wind shear. While strong
gusts may accompany some of the deeper storm cores, the threat for
severe storms appears too low for the inclusion of severe
wind-driven probabilities at this time.
..Squitieri/Chalmers.. 04/06/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across the
Florida Peninsula, and portions of the Four Corners, northern
Rockies, and eastern Great Lakes. No severe threat is forecast.
...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will begin exiting the Northeast and
overspreading the Atlantic as another mid-level trough impinges on
the Pacific Northwest and a lower amplitude impulse traverses the
Southwest today. Much of the northern, central, and eastern CONUS
will be dominated by surface high pressure while surface lee
troughing, with dry low-level trajectories, takes place over the
southern High Plains. As such, convective potential will be limited
over the much of the U.S. with few exceptions. A few embedded
mid-level impulses, accompanied by cooler temperatures aloft, will
foster enough lift amid scant buoyancy to encourage a few lightning
flashes across the northern Rockies, Four Corners region, and the
eastern Great Lakes today.
The best chance for organized thunderstorm potential will be over
the FL Peninsula, where ample low-level moisture will exist in
proximity to a stalled frontal boundary. Afternoon peak heating will
support scattered thunderstorm development amid tall, thin CAPE
profiles, but relatively poor vertical wind shear. While strong
gusts may accompany some of the deeper storm cores, the threat for
severe storms appears too low for the inclusion of severe
wind-driven probabilities at this time.
..Squitieri/Chalmers.. 04/06/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 060100Z - 061200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms remain possible across the Florida Peninsula
through early tonight.
...Synopsis...
A surface cold front continues to move offshore into the Atlantic,
aided by the eastward advancement of an upper trough over the Great
Lakes. Much of the low-level moisture and favorable buoyancy for
organized thunderstorms has either diminished or moved offshore with
the cold front. Some low-level moisture and instability remains
across the FL Peninsula, where thunderstorms are currently in
progress. These storms should benefit from residual buoyancy for a
few more hours before nocturnal stabilization and the arrival of the
cold front limits thunderstorm potential.
..Squitieri.. 04/06/2026
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 131200Z
Upper-level ridging over the western US will continue to dampen on
Day 3/Tuesday due to an incoming trough over the Pacific Northwest.
This trough will contribute to near-zonal flow across the southern
half of the CONUS on Day 4/Wednesday as it moves along the Canadian
border. On Day 5/Thursday, a cutoff upper-level low approaches the
central California coast. Recent forecast guidance suggests that it
will remain over California through Day 7/Saturday before moving
inland and contributing to potentially multiple days of
precipitation, particularly over California and the Great Basin.
...Southeast (Day 3/Tuesday and Day 4/Wednesday)...
One area that the latest forecast guidance leaves out of much of the
accumulating precipitation is just south/east of the southern
Appalachian Mountains (especially over southern Georgia and South
Carolina). Offshore flow will likely contribute to elevated fire
weather conditions on Day 3/Tuesday across southern Georgia and Day
4/Wednesday over eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina. This
regime will contribute to northeast 10-15 mph winds combined with
RHs down to 25-35% during the peak heating periods over the
aforementioned areas on the respective days. As such, 40%
probabilities were included over these areas.
...Southern Plains (Day 4/Wednesday)...
Another day of tightened surface pressure gradient supports
south-southwest winds of up to 20 mph and RHs down to 10-15% over
portions of the southern High Plains again on Day 4/Wednesday. Much
of this region is favored for accumulating precipitation as the
aforementioned low pressure system moves inland late in the week.
...Great Basin/Southwest (Day 4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday)...
Some potential for critical conditions will exist across portions of
the Great Basin and Southwest as the upper-level ridge continues to
erode on starting on Day 3/Tuesday. The best chances for sporadic
fire weather conditions under the southerly flow will occur on Day
4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday. However, recent cooler weather,
precipitation, and resultant questionably receptive fuels will
preclude any probabilities at this time. While this event could
promote a brief period of drier fuel conditions across this region,
additional precipitation also appears likely with the aforementioned
low pressure system later in the week.
..Stearns.. 04/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 131200Z
Upper-level ridging over the western US will continue to dampen on
Day 3/Tuesday due to an incoming trough over the Pacific Northwest.
This trough will contribute to near-zonal flow across the southern
half of the CONUS on Day 4/Wednesday as it moves along the Canadian
border. On Day 5/Thursday, a cutoff upper-level low approaches the
central California coast. Recent forecast guidance suggests that it
will remain over California through Day 7/Saturday before moving
inland and contributing to potentially multiple days of
precipitation, particularly over California and the Great Basin.
...Southeast (Day 3/Tuesday and Day 4/Wednesday)...
One area that the latest forecast guidance leaves out of much of the
accumulating precipitation is just south/east of the southern
Appalachian Mountains (especially over southern Georgia and South
Carolina). Offshore flow will likely contribute to elevated fire
weather conditions on Day 3/Tuesday across southern Georgia and Day
4/Wednesday over eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina. This
regime will contribute to northeast 10-15 mph winds combined with
RHs down to 25-35% during the peak heating periods over the
aforementioned areas on the respective days. As such, 40%
probabilities were included over these areas.
...Southern Plains (Day 4/Wednesday)...
Another day of tightened surface pressure gradient supports
south-southwest winds of up to 20 mph and RHs down to 10-15% over
portions of the southern High Plains again on Day 4/Wednesday. Much
of this region is favored for accumulating precipitation as the
aforementioned low pressure system moves inland late in the week.
...Great Basin/Southwest (Day 4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday)...
Some potential for critical conditions will exist across portions of
the Great Basin and Southwest as the upper-level ridge continues to
erode on starting on Day 3/Tuesday. The best chances for sporadic
fire weather conditions under the southerly flow will occur on Day
4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday. However, recent cooler weather,
precipitation, and resultant questionably receptive fuels will
preclude any probabilities at this time. While this event could
promote a brief period of drier fuel conditions across this region,
additional precipitation also appears likely with the aforementioned
low pressure system later in the week.
..Stearns.. 04/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 131200Z
Upper-level ridging over the western US will continue to dampen on
Day 3/Tuesday due to an incoming trough over the Pacific Northwest.
This trough will contribute to near-zonal flow across the southern
half of the CONUS on Day 4/Wednesday as it moves along the Canadian
border. On Day 5/Thursday, a cutoff upper-level low approaches the
central California coast. Recent forecast guidance suggests that it
will remain over California through Day 7/Saturday before moving
inland and contributing to potentially multiple days of
precipitation, particularly over California and the Great Basin.
...Southeast (Day 3/Tuesday and Day 4/Wednesday)...
One area that the latest forecast guidance leaves out of much of the
accumulating precipitation is just south/east of the southern
Appalachian Mountains (especially over southern Georgia and South
Carolina). Offshore flow will likely contribute to elevated fire
weather conditions on Day 3/Tuesday across southern Georgia and Day
4/Wednesday over eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina. This
regime will contribute to northeast 10-15 mph winds combined with
RHs down to 25-35% during the peak heating periods over the
aforementioned areas on the respective days. As such, 40%
probabilities were included over these areas.
...Southern Plains (Day 4/Wednesday)...
Another day of tightened surface pressure gradient supports
south-southwest winds of up to 20 mph and RHs down to 10-15% over
portions of the southern High Plains again on Day 4/Wednesday. Much
of this region is favored for accumulating precipitation as the
aforementioned low pressure system moves inland late in the week.
...Great Basin/Southwest (Day 4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday)...
Some potential for critical conditions will exist across portions of
the Great Basin and Southwest as the upper-level ridge continues to
erode on starting on Day 3/Tuesday. The best chances for sporadic
fire weather conditions under the southerly flow will occur on Day
4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday. However, recent cooler weather,
precipitation, and resultant questionably receptive fuels will
preclude any probabilities at this time. While this event could
promote a brief period of drier fuel conditions across this region,
additional precipitation also appears likely with the aforementioned
low pressure system later in the week.
..Stearns.. 04/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 131200Z
Upper-level ridging over the western US will continue to dampen on
Day 3/Tuesday due to an incoming trough over the Pacific Northwest.
This trough will contribute to near-zonal flow across the southern
half of the CONUS on Day 4/Wednesday as it moves along the Canadian
border. On Day 5/Thursday, a cutoff upper-level low approaches the
central California coast. Recent forecast guidance suggests that it
will remain over California through Day 7/Saturday before moving
inland and contributing to potentially multiple days of
precipitation, particularly over California and the Great Basin.
...Southeast (Day 3/Tuesday and Day 4/Wednesday)...
One area that the latest forecast guidance leaves out of much of the
accumulating precipitation is just south/east of the southern
Appalachian Mountains (especially over southern Georgia and South
Carolina). Offshore flow will likely contribute to elevated fire
weather conditions on Day 3/Tuesday across southern Georgia and Day
4/Wednesday over eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina. This
regime will contribute to northeast 10-15 mph winds combined with
RHs down to 25-35% during the peak heating periods over the
aforementioned areas on the respective days. As such, 40%
probabilities were included over these areas.
...Southern Plains (Day 4/Wednesday)...
Another day of tightened surface pressure gradient supports
south-southwest winds of up to 20 mph and RHs down to 10-15% over
portions of the southern High Plains again on Day 4/Wednesday. Much
of this region is favored for accumulating precipitation as the
aforementioned low pressure system moves inland late in the week.
...Great Basin/Southwest (Day 4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday)...
Some potential for critical conditions will exist across portions of
the Great Basin and Southwest as the upper-level ridge continues to
erode on starting on Day 3/Tuesday. The best chances for sporadic
fire weather conditions under the southerly flow will occur on Day
4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday. However, recent cooler weather,
precipitation, and resultant questionably receptive fuels will
preclude any probabilities at this time. While this event could
promote a brief period of drier fuel conditions across this region,
additional precipitation also appears likely with the aforementioned
low pressure system later in the week.
..Stearns.. 04/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 131200Z
Upper-level ridging over the western US will continue to dampen on
Day 3/Tuesday due to an incoming trough over the Pacific Northwest.
This trough will contribute to near-zonal flow across the southern
half of the CONUS on Day 4/Wednesday as it moves along the Canadian
border. On Day 5/Thursday, a cutoff upper-level low approaches the
central California coast. Recent forecast guidance suggests that it
will remain over California through Day 7/Saturday before moving
inland and contributing to potentially multiple days of
precipitation, particularly over California and the Great Basin.
...Southeast (Day 3/Tuesday and Day 4/Wednesday)...
One area that the latest forecast guidance leaves out of much of the
accumulating precipitation is just south/east of the southern
Appalachian Mountains (especially over southern Georgia and South
Carolina). Offshore flow will likely contribute to elevated fire
weather conditions on Day 3/Tuesday across southern Georgia and Day
4/Wednesday over eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina. This
regime will contribute to northeast 10-15 mph winds combined with
RHs down to 25-35% during the peak heating periods over the
aforementioned areas on the respective days. As such, 40%
probabilities were included over these areas.
...Southern Plains (Day 4/Wednesday)...
Another day of tightened surface pressure gradient supports
south-southwest winds of up to 20 mph and RHs down to 10-15% over
portions of the southern High Plains again on Day 4/Wednesday. Much
of this region is favored for accumulating precipitation as the
aforementioned low pressure system moves inland late in the week.
...Great Basin/Southwest (Day 4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday)...
Some potential for critical conditions will exist across portions of
the Great Basin and Southwest as the upper-level ridge continues to
erode on starting on Day 3/Tuesday. The best chances for sporadic
fire weather conditions under the southerly flow will occur on Day
4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday. However, recent cooler weather,
precipitation, and resultant questionably receptive fuels will
preclude any probabilities at this time. While this event could
promote a brief period of drier fuel conditions across this region,
additional precipitation also appears likely with the aforementioned
low pressure system later in the week.
..Stearns.. 04/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 052000Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated damaging winds may occur this afternoon
across the eastern Carolinas.
...20z Update...
Latest radar and lightning data shows a band of pre-frontal
convection moving across the Carolinas and far southeast VA. This
activity will continue to pose an isolated wind damage threat for
the next few hours before moving offshore by early evening. 5% wind
probabilities have been adjusted accordingly, and the 10% general
thunder probability highlights regions with remaining MUCAPE ahead
of the approaching cold front. See the previous discussion below for
additional details.
..Moore.. 04/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026/
...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic...
Within the base of a broad upper trough centered over eastern Canada
and the Great Lakes, multiple subtle mid-level perturbations over
the Midwest will develop east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic
and Carolinas today. Ongoing showers will accompany an
east/southeastward-moving surface cold front, but some cloud breaks
will allow for filtered pre-frontal heating, particularly across the
coastal plain over the eastern Carolinas and far southeast VA.
Up to 100-300 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop across the coastal
Mid-Atlantic, with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible over the eastern
Carolinas where greater heating should occur. A broken line of
low-topped thunderstorms will develop along/ahead of the cold front
this afternoon as it moves east-southeastward. Modestly curved
low-level hodographs and 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear should support
clusters/bands of convection, with isolated damaging wind gusts
possible where low-level lapse rates can become steepened. However,
poor mid-level lapse rates and generally weak instability are
expected to limit updraft strength and the overall severe threat.
...Upper Midwest...
While low-level moisture will remain quite meager, cold temperatures
aloft and very weak MUCAPE may support a few lightning flashes late
this afternoon and early evening across parts of southeast MN into
northeast IA and southwest WI near a southeastward-moving front.
Gusty winds may occur with this convection in the presence of a
well-mixed boundary layer and strengthening northwesterly winds
aloft. But with minimal instability forecast, the overall severe
threat is expected to remain low.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 052000Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated damaging winds may occur this afternoon
across the eastern Carolinas.
...20z Update...
Latest radar and lightning data shows a band of pre-frontal
convection moving across the Carolinas and far southeast VA. This
activity will continue to pose an isolated wind damage threat for
the next few hours before moving offshore by early evening. 5% wind
probabilities have been adjusted accordingly, and the 10% general
thunder probability highlights regions with remaining MUCAPE ahead
of the approaching cold front. See the previous discussion below for
additional details.
..Moore.. 04/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026/
...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic...
Within the base of a broad upper trough centered over eastern Canada
and the Great Lakes, multiple subtle mid-level perturbations over
the Midwest will develop east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic
and Carolinas today. Ongoing showers will accompany an
east/southeastward-moving surface cold front, but some cloud breaks
will allow for filtered pre-frontal heating, particularly across the
coastal plain over the eastern Carolinas and far southeast VA.
Up to 100-300 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop across the coastal
Mid-Atlantic, with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible over the eastern
Carolinas where greater heating should occur. A broken line of
low-topped thunderstorms will develop along/ahead of the cold front
this afternoon as it moves east-southeastward. Modestly curved
low-level hodographs and 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear should support
clusters/bands of convection, with isolated damaging wind gusts
possible where low-level lapse rates can become steepened. However,
poor mid-level lapse rates and generally weak instability are
expected to limit updraft strength and the overall severe threat.
...Upper Midwest...
While low-level moisture will remain quite meager, cold temperatures
aloft and very weak MUCAPE may support a few lightning flashes late
this afternoon and early evening across parts of southeast MN into
northeast IA and southwest WI near a southeastward-moving front.
Gusty winds may occur with this convection in the presence of a
well-mixed boundary layer and strengthening northwesterly winds
aloft. But with minimal instability forecast, the overall severe
threat is expected to remain low.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 052000Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated damaging winds may occur this afternoon
across the eastern Carolinas.
...20z Update...
Latest radar and lightning data shows a band of pre-frontal
convection moving across the Carolinas and far southeast VA. This
activity will continue to pose an isolated wind damage threat for
the next few hours before moving offshore by early evening. 5% wind
probabilities have been adjusted accordingly, and the 10% general
thunder probability highlights regions with remaining MUCAPE ahead
of the approaching cold front. See the previous discussion below for
additional details.
..Moore.. 04/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026/
...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic...
Within the base of a broad upper trough centered over eastern Canada
and the Great Lakes, multiple subtle mid-level perturbations over
the Midwest will develop east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic
and Carolinas today. Ongoing showers will accompany an
east/southeastward-moving surface cold front, but some cloud breaks
will allow for filtered pre-frontal heating, particularly across the
coastal plain over the eastern Carolinas and far southeast VA.
Up to 100-300 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop across the coastal
Mid-Atlantic, with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible over the eastern
Carolinas where greater heating should occur. A broken line of
low-topped thunderstorms will develop along/ahead of the cold front
this afternoon as it moves east-southeastward. Modestly curved
low-level hodographs and 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear should support
clusters/bands of convection, with isolated damaging wind gusts
possible where low-level lapse rates can become steepened. However,
poor mid-level lapse rates and generally weak instability are
expected to limit updraft strength and the overall severe threat.
...Upper Midwest...
While low-level moisture will remain quite meager, cold temperatures
aloft and very weak MUCAPE may support a few lightning flashes late
this afternoon and early evening across parts of southeast MN into
northeast IA and southwest WI near a southeastward-moving front.
Gusty winds may occur with this convection in the presence of a
well-mixed boundary layer and strengthening northwesterly winds
aloft. But with minimal instability forecast, the overall severe
threat is expected to remain low.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 052000Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated damaging winds may occur this afternoon
across the eastern Carolinas.
...20z Update...
Latest radar and lightning data shows a band of pre-frontal
convection moving across the Carolinas and far southeast VA. This
activity will continue to pose an isolated wind damage threat for
the next few hours before moving offshore by early evening. 5% wind
probabilities have been adjusted accordingly, and the 10% general
thunder probability highlights regions with remaining MUCAPE ahead
of the approaching cold front. See the previous discussion below for
additional details.
..Moore.. 04/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026/
...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic...
Within the base of a broad upper trough centered over eastern Canada
and the Great Lakes, multiple subtle mid-level perturbations over
the Midwest will develop east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic
and Carolinas today. Ongoing showers will accompany an
east/southeastward-moving surface cold front, but some cloud breaks
will allow for filtered pre-frontal heating, particularly across the
coastal plain over the eastern Carolinas and far southeast VA.
Up to 100-300 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop across the coastal
Mid-Atlantic, with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible over the eastern
Carolinas where greater heating should occur. A broken line of
low-topped thunderstorms will develop along/ahead of the cold front
this afternoon as it moves east-southeastward. Modestly curved
low-level hodographs and 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear should support
clusters/bands of convection, with isolated damaging wind gusts
possible where low-level lapse rates can become steepened. However,
poor mid-level lapse rates and generally weak instability are
expected to limit updraft strength and the overall severe threat.
...Upper Midwest...
While low-level moisture will remain quite meager, cold temperatures
aloft and very weak MUCAPE may support a few lightning flashes late
this afternoon and early evening across parts of southeast MN into
northeast IA and southwest WI near a southeastward-moving front.
Gusty winds may occur with this convection in the presence of a
well-mixed boundary layer and strengthening northwesterly winds
aloft. But with minimal instability forecast, the overall severe
threat is expected to remain low.
Read more
