Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across parts of the Florida Peninsula, and in the southern Rockies/Four Corners area. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... Several upper shortwave troughs will move across the U.S. on Tuesday. A pair of troughs will migrate across the eastern U.S. and Florida. Meanwhile a weak shortwave trough will move across the southern Rockies and Plains while another moves over the northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will encompass much of the eastern half of the CONUS while a cold front sags south across central/southern FL. Isolated thunderstorms may develop ahead of the cold front across the FL Peninsula. A dry/stable airmass across much of the rest of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorm activity, though a few storms are possible as the shortwave upper trough moves across the Four Corners and southern Rockies vicinity. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 04/05/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across parts of the Florida Peninsula, and in the southern Rockies/Four Corners area. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... Several upper shortwave troughs will move across the U.S. on Tuesday. A pair of troughs will migrate across the eastern U.S. and Florida. Meanwhile a weak shortwave trough will move across the southern Rockies and Plains while another moves over the northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will encompass much of the eastern half of the CONUS while a cold front sags south across central/southern FL. Isolated thunderstorms may develop ahead of the cold front across the FL Peninsula. A dry/stable airmass across much of the rest of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorm activity, though a few storms are possible as the shortwave upper trough moves across the Four Corners and southern Rockies vicinity. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 04/05/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across parts of the Florida Peninsula, and in the southern Rockies/Four Corners area. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... Several upper shortwave troughs will move across the U.S. on Tuesday. A pair of troughs will migrate across the eastern U.S. and Florida. Meanwhile a weak shortwave trough will move across the southern Rockies and Plains while another moves over the northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will encompass much of the eastern half of the CONUS while a cold front sags south across central/southern FL. Isolated thunderstorms may develop ahead of the cold front across the FL Peninsula. A dry/stable airmass across much of the rest of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorm activity, though a few storms are possible as the shortwave upper trough moves across the Four Corners and southern Rockies vicinity. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 04/05/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across parts of the Florida Peninsula, and in the southern Rockies/Four Corners area. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... Several upper shortwave troughs will move across the U.S. on Tuesday. A pair of troughs will migrate across the eastern U.S. and Florida. Meanwhile a weak shortwave trough will move across the southern Rockies and Plains while another moves over the northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will encompass much of the eastern half of the CONUS while a cold front sags south across central/southern FL. Isolated thunderstorms may develop ahead of the cold front across the FL Peninsula. A dry/stable airmass across much of the rest of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorm activity, though a few storms are possible as the shortwave upper trough moves across the Four Corners and southern Rockies vicinity. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 04/05/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...SOUTHEAST COLORADO...AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... A Critical area was added over much of the Oklahoma Panhandle, and adjacent portions of the Texas Panhandle, northeast New Mexico, southeast Colorado, and southwest Kansas. As the surface low strengthens over eastern Colorado, the latest forecast guidance suggests that southwest surface winds will approach 20-25 mph within this area for multiple hours during peak heating. Additionally, much of the Critical area is also experiencing elevated conditions during the Day 1/Sunday time frame, working to further pre-condition fuels. The Elevated area was also expanded slightly in accordance with the latest forecast guidance showing drier air farther east over portions of south-central Kansas and northwest Oklahoma. Consensus indicates that the aforementioned cold front will approach northern portions of the drawn area after sunset. However, given the slow moving nature and proximity of this front, it's progression will be monitored closely with future issuances. ..Stearns.. 04/05/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging over the West will begin to dampen on D2/Monday as an incoming mid-level trough shifts into the Pacific Northwest and a more second, more subtle, mid-level shortwave trough traverses eastward over the Southwest. Simultaneously, longwave troughing will persist across the Northeast, with a cold front continuing to advance eastward across the Eastern Seaboard. A second cold front will also progress southward across the central Great Plains/Midwest. ...Portions of the central/southern High Plains... Similar to D1/Sunday, a tightened surface pressure gradient will result in sustained southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph over portions of the central/southern High Plains on D2/Monday. With minimum RH values forecast in the 10-15% range during the afternoon and dry, receptive fuels in place across the region, this will promote elevated fire weather concerns for portions of northeastern New Mexico, southeastern Colorado, much of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, and southwestern Kansas. Latest high-res guidance suggests that locally greater sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph may support a brief period of critical fire weather conditions Monday afternoon, with the greatest potential across the western Oklahoma Panhandle and immediately adjacent portions of TX/NM/CO. Critical highlights have been withheld at this time due to uncertainty regarding the magnitude and duration of stronger sustained surface winds as well as timing/positioning discrepancies of an approaching cold front within latest model guidance. Trends will be monitored for a possible upgrade in future outlooks. The aforementioned cold front is forecast to progress slowly southward before stalling in the vicinity of the Elevated area late Monday evening into Monday night, but it remains uncertain as to how far south this front will progress. Areas that do see the passage of the cold front can expect a shift to northeasterly winds and at least some increase in relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...SOUTHEAST COLORADO...AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... A Critical area was added over much of the Oklahoma Panhandle, and adjacent portions of the Texas Panhandle, northeast New Mexico, southeast Colorado, and southwest Kansas. As the surface low strengthens over eastern Colorado, the latest forecast guidance suggests that southwest surface winds will approach 20-25 mph within this area for multiple hours during peak heating. Additionally, much of the Critical area is also experiencing elevated conditions during the Day 1/Sunday time frame, working to further pre-condition fuels. The Elevated area was also expanded slightly in accordance with the latest forecast guidance showing drier air farther east over portions of south-central Kansas and northwest Oklahoma. Consensus indicates that the aforementioned cold front will approach northern portions of the drawn area after sunset. However, given the slow moving nature and proximity of this front, it's progression will be monitored closely with future issuances. ..Stearns.. 04/05/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging over the West will begin to dampen on D2/Monday as an incoming mid-level trough shifts into the Pacific Northwest and a more second, more subtle, mid-level shortwave trough traverses eastward over the Southwest. Simultaneously, longwave troughing will persist across the Northeast, with a cold front continuing to advance eastward across the Eastern Seaboard. A second cold front will also progress southward across the central Great Plains/Midwest. ...Portions of the central/southern High Plains... Similar to D1/Sunday, a tightened surface pressure gradient will result in sustained southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph over portions of the central/southern High Plains on D2/Monday. With minimum RH values forecast in the 10-15% range during the afternoon and dry, receptive fuels in place across the region, this will promote elevated fire weather concerns for portions of northeastern New Mexico, southeastern Colorado, much of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, and southwestern Kansas. Latest high-res guidance suggests that locally greater sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph may support a brief period of critical fire weather conditions Monday afternoon, with the greatest potential across the western Oklahoma Panhandle and immediately adjacent portions of TX/NM/CO. Critical highlights have been withheld at this time due to uncertainty regarding the magnitude and duration of stronger sustained surface winds as well as timing/positioning discrepancies of an approaching cold front within latest model guidance. Trends will be monitored for a possible upgrade in future outlooks. The aforementioned cold front is forecast to progress slowly southward before stalling in the vicinity of the Elevated area late Monday evening into Monday night, but it remains uncertain as to how far south this front will progress. Areas that do see the passage of the cold front can expect a shift to northeasterly winds and at least some increase in relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...SOUTHEAST COLORADO...AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... A Critical area was added over much of the Oklahoma Panhandle, and adjacent portions of the Texas Panhandle, northeast New Mexico, southeast Colorado, and southwest Kansas. As the surface low strengthens over eastern Colorado, the latest forecast guidance suggests that southwest surface winds will approach 20-25 mph within this area for multiple hours during peak heating. Additionally, much of the Critical area is also experiencing elevated conditions during the Day 1/Sunday time frame, working to further pre-condition fuels. The Elevated area was also expanded slightly in accordance with the latest forecast guidance showing drier air farther east over portions of south-central Kansas and northwest Oklahoma. Consensus indicates that the aforementioned cold front will approach northern portions of the drawn area after sunset. However, given the slow moving nature and proximity of this front, it's progression will be monitored closely with future issuances. ..Stearns.. 04/05/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging over the West will begin to dampen on D2/Monday as an incoming mid-level trough shifts into the Pacific Northwest and a more second, more subtle, mid-level shortwave trough traverses eastward over the Southwest. Simultaneously, longwave troughing will persist across the Northeast, with a cold front continuing to advance eastward across the Eastern Seaboard. A second cold front will also progress southward across the central Great Plains/Midwest. ...Portions of the central/southern High Plains... Similar to D1/Sunday, a tightened surface pressure gradient will result in sustained southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph over portions of the central/southern High Plains on D2/Monday. With minimum RH values forecast in the 10-15% range during the afternoon and dry, receptive fuels in place across the region, this will promote elevated fire weather concerns for portions of northeastern New Mexico, southeastern Colorado, much of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, and southwestern Kansas. Latest high-res guidance suggests that locally greater sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph may support a brief period of critical fire weather conditions Monday afternoon, with the greatest potential across the western Oklahoma Panhandle and immediately adjacent portions of TX/NM/CO. Critical highlights have been withheld at this time due to uncertainty regarding the magnitude and duration of stronger sustained surface winds as well as timing/positioning discrepancies of an approaching cold front within latest model guidance. Trends will be monitored for a possible upgrade in future outlooks. The aforementioned cold front is forecast to progress slowly southward before stalling in the vicinity of the Elevated area late Monday evening into Monday night, but it remains uncertain as to how far south this front will progress. Areas that do see the passage of the cold front can expect a shift to northeasterly winds and at least some increase in relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...SOUTHEAST COLORADO...AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... A Critical area was added over much of the Oklahoma Panhandle, and adjacent portions of the Texas Panhandle, northeast New Mexico, southeast Colorado, and southwest Kansas. As the surface low strengthens over eastern Colorado, the latest forecast guidance suggests that southwest surface winds will approach 20-25 mph within this area for multiple hours during peak heating. Additionally, much of the Critical area is also experiencing elevated conditions during the Day 1/Sunday time frame, working to further pre-condition fuels. The Elevated area was also expanded slightly in accordance with the latest forecast guidance showing drier air farther east over portions of south-central Kansas and northwest Oklahoma. Consensus indicates that the aforementioned cold front will approach northern portions of the drawn area after sunset. However, given the slow moving nature and proximity of this front, it's progression will be monitored closely with future issuances. ..Stearns.. 04/05/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging over the West will begin to dampen on D2/Monday as an incoming mid-level trough shifts into the Pacific Northwest and a more second, more subtle, mid-level shortwave trough traverses eastward over the Southwest. Simultaneously, longwave troughing will persist across the Northeast, with a cold front continuing to advance eastward across the Eastern Seaboard. A second cold front will also progress southward across the central Great Plains/Midwest. ...Portions of the central/southern High Plains... Similar to D1/Sunday, a tightened surface pressure gradient will result in sustained southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph over portions of the central/southern High Plains on D2/Monday. With minimum RH values forecast in the 10-15% range during the afternoon and dry, receptive fuels in place across the region, this will promote elevated fire weather concerns for portions of northeastern New Mexico, southeastern Colorado, much of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, and southwestern Kansas. Latest high-res guidance suggests that locally greater sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph may support a brief period of critical fire weather conditions Monday afternoon, with the greatest potential across the western Oklahoma Panhandle and immediately adjacent portions of TX/NM/CO. Critical highlights have been withheld at this time due to uncertainty regarding the magnitude and duration of stronger sustained surface winds as well as timing/positioning discrepancies of an approaching cold front within latest model guidance. Trends will be monitored for a possible upgrade in future outlooks. The aforementioned cold front is forecast to progress slowly southward before stalling in the vicinity of the Elevated area late Monday evening into Monday night, but it remains uncertain as to how far south this front will progress. Areas that do see the passage of the cold front can expect a shift to northeasterly winds and at least some increase in relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Monday across the Florida Peninsula, parts of the Southwest, and portions of Oregon, but no severe threat is forecast. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will persist across the eastern U.S. on Monday. Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough will migrate across the Southwest, while another shortwave trough overspreads the Pacific Northwest late in the period. At the surface, a cold front will extend across north-central FL into the Gulf. High pressure will build over the Upper Midwest, and a dry/stable boundary layer will envelop much of the CONUS, aside from FL. A seasonally warm/moist airmass ahead of the surface cold front will support modest destabilization across the FL Peninsula during the afternoon/early evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected, but poor lapse rates and weak vertical shear will preclude severe potential. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southwest. Steep midlevel lapse rates amid increasing midlevel moisture and weak instability should be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development as the upper shortwave trough overspreads the region. A few weak thunderstorms may also develop across portions of Oregon late in the afternoon and evening. Midlevel moistening is expected as height falls and steepening midlevel lapse rates overspread the area with the approach of an upper shortwave trough. Severe storms are not expected in these areas given modest vertical shear and weak instability. ..Leitman.. 04/05/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Monday across the Florida Peninsula, parts of the Southwest, and portions of Oregon, but no severe threat is forecast. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will persist across the eastern U.S. on Monday. Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough will migrate across the Southwest, while another shortwave trough overspreads the Pacific Northwest late in the period. At the surface, a cold front will extend across north-central FL into the Gulf. High pressure will build over the Upper Midwest, and a dry/stable boundary layer will envelop much of the CONUS, aside from FL. A seasonally warm/moist airmass ahead of the surface cold front will support modest destabilization across the FL Peninsula during the afternoon/early evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected, but poor lapse rates and weak vertical shear will preclude severe potential. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southwest. Steep midlevel lapse rates amid increasing midlevel moisture and weak instability should be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development as the upper shortwave trough overspreads the region. A few weak thunderstorms may also develop across portions of Oregon late in the afternoon and evening. Midlevel moistening is expected as height falls and steepening midlevel lapse rates overspread the area with the approach of an upper shortwave trough. Severe storms are not expected in these areas given modest vertical shear and weak instability. ..Leitman.. 04/05/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Monday across the Florida Peninsula, parts of the Southwest, and portions of Oregon, but no severe threat is forecast. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will persist across the eastern U.S. on Monday. Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough will migrate across the Southwest, while another shortwave trough overspreads the Pacific Northwest late in the period. At the surface, a cold front will extend across north-central FL into the Gulf. High pressure will build over the Upper Midwest, and a dry/stable boundary layer will envelop much of the CONUS, aside from FL. A seasonally warm/moist airmass ahead of the surface cold front will support modest destabilization across the FL Peninsula during the afternoon/early evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected, but poor lapse rates and weak vertical shear will preclude severe potential. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southwest. Steep midlevel lapse rates amid increasing midlevel moisture and weak instability should be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development as the upper shortwave trough overspreads the region. A few weak thunderstorms may also develop across portions of Oregon late in the afternoon and evening. Midlevel moistening is expected as height falls and steepening midlevel lapse rates overspread the area with the approach of an upper shortwave trough. Severe storms are not expected in these areas given modest vertical shear and weak instability. ..Leitman.. 04/05/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated damaging winds may occur this afternoon across the eastern Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic... Within the base of a broad upper trough centered over eastern Canada and the Great Lakes, multiple subtle mid-level perturbations over the Midwest will develop east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas today. Ongoing showers will accompany an east/southeastward-moving surface cold front, but some cloud breaks will allow for filtered pre-frontal heating, particularly across the coastal plain over the eastern Carolinas and far southeast VA. Up to 100-300 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop across the coastal Mid-Atlantic, with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible over the eastern Carolinas where greater heating should occur. A broken line of low-topped thunderstorms will develop along/ahead of the cold front this afternoon as it moves east-southeastward. Modestly curved low-level hodographs and 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear should support clusters/bands of convection, with isolated damaging wind gusts possible where low-level lapse rates can become steepened. However, poor mid-level lapse rates and generally weak instability are expected to limit updraft strength and the overall severe threat. ...Upper Midwest... While low-level moisture will remain quite meager, cold temperatures aloft and very weak MUCAPE may support a few lightning flashes late this afternoon and early evening across parts of southeast MN into northeast IA and southwest WI near a southeastward-moving front. Gusty winds may occur with this convection in the presence of a well-mixed boundary layer and strengthening northwesterly winds aloft. But with minimal instability forecast, the overall severe threat is expected to remain low. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 04/05/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated damaging winds may occur this afternoon across the eastern Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic... Within the base of a broad upper trough centered over eastern Canada and the Great Lakes, multiple subtle mid-level perturbations over the Midwest will develop east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas today. Ongoing showers will accompany an east/southeastward-moving surface cold front, but some cloud breaks will allow for filtered pre-frontal heating, particularly across the coastal plain over the eastern Carolinas and far southeast VA. Up to 100-300 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop across the coastal Mid-Atlantic, with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible over the eastern Carolinas where greater heating should occur. A broken line of low-topped thunderstorms will develop along/ahead of the cold front this afternoon as it moves east-southeastward. Modestly curved low-level hodographs and 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear should support clusters/bands of convection, with isolated damaging wind gusts possible where low-level lapse rates can become steepened. However, poor mid-level lapse rates and generally weak instability are expected to limit updraft strength and the overall severe threat. ...Upper Midwest... While low-level moisture will remain quite meager, cold temperatures aloft and very weak MUCAPE may support a few lightning flashes late this afternoon and early evening across parts of southeast MN into northeast IA and southwest WI near a southeastward-moving front. Gusty winds may occur with this convection in the presence of a well-mixed boundary layer and strengthening northwesterly winds aloft. But with minimal instability forecast, the overall severe threat is expected to remain low. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 04/05/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z No changes were made to the previous forecast. Elevated conditions will remain on track across the drawn area according to the latest forecast guidance. While isolated to scattered clouds over the southeastern quarter of New Mexico may limit early afternoon boundary layer mixing, they are not expected to be persistent enough to keep surface conditions below elevated criteria. As was previously mentioned, there is a possibility of transient locally critical conditions over far northeastern New Mexico late this afternoon. However, the short duration and limited areal extent will preclude the introduction of a critical drawn area. ..Stearns.. 04/05/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will remain in place across the West today with longwave troughing across the Great Lakes region. Concurrently, surface high pressure will prevail across the central/southern Great Plains while a cold front progresses eastward across the East Coast/Southeast. A second cold front will simultaneously move southward across the northern Great Plains. ...Portions of the southern High Plains... A tightened surface pressure gradient between the aforementioned surface high over the central Great Plains and low pressure across the Gulf of California will promote sustained 15-20 mph south-southeasterly return flow across the southern High Plains. With no appreciable moisture return and only limited mid/high cloud cover expected, diurnal heating/mixing are forecast to result in RH values dropping to 10-20% across the same region. With current fuel conditions across portions of the southern High Plains some of the driest within the CONUS, this combination of winds and RH is expected to promote elevated fire weather conditions for at least a few hours this afternoon. Farther south across extreme southeastern New Mexico and portions of West Texas, greater mid/high cloud cover should result in RH values remaining more marginal. While locally elevated fire weather conditions remain possible across this area, the more marginal forecast RH values coupled with greater uncertainty regarding wind speed duration and magnitude preclude a southward expansion of Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon across the eastern Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic region. ...Carolinas/Delmarva/Mid-Atlantic States... Multiple subtle mid-level perturbations over the Midwest, within the base of the broad upper trough centered over Canada/Great Lakes, will progress east-northeastward with steady height falls and strengthening flow aloft particularly for the Mid-Atlantic region and Delmarva. Prevalent showers/some thunderstorms early today will accompany an east/southeastward-moving cold front, but cloud breaks should allow for pre-frontal heating particularly across the coastal plain over the Carolinas and far southeast Virginia. A few hundred J/kg MLCAPE may develop along the Mid-Atlantic shoreline, with up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible over the eastern Carolinas. As the surface cold front approaches by early afternoon, a line of storms should develop and intensify along the cold front. Modestly curved low-level hodographs should support linearly organizing clusters/bands of storms, with a few damaging wind gusts possible during the afternoon. ...Upper Midwest... While low-level moisture will be rather limited, thermodynamic profiles may be sufficiently supportive of a few lightning flashes late this afternoon and early evening across parts of southern Minnesota/northern Iowa into western Wisconsin in vicinity of a southeastward-spreading front. Gusty winds may also occur with this convection in the presence of a well-mixed boundary layer and strengthening northwesterly winds aloft. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/05/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR TSTM LINE ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across parts of the Florida Peninsula, and in the southern Rockies/Four Corners area. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward to near the Mid-Atlantic Seaboard on Tuesday, as a cold front advances southward across the Florida Peninsula. A moist airmass will reside over parts of southern and central Florida on Tuesday, with scattered thunderstorm development possible as surface temperatures warm. Additional thunderstorms will be likely from the Four Corners area eastward into the southern Rockies in the afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough passes through. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... From Wednesday into Thursday, an upper-level trough will move from the High Plains into the Great Lakes, as a large area of surface high pressure moves across the eastern U.S. Along the western edge of this feature on Thursday, low-level moisture advection is forecast from the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Within this returning airmass, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening. The best chance for severe storms would be across parts of the central Plains, as the low-level jet ramps up in the evening. Uncertainty exists concerning the magnitude of any potential severe threat. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... Moisture advection is forecast to continue on Friday over the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex, as surface dewpoints increase into the 60s F. A slow-moving cold front is forecast to stall in the central Plains, which would be a focus for thunderstorm development. Isolated to scattered storms are also expected on Friday along and to the east of a dryline in the southern High Plains. An isolated severe threat would be possible in areas that sufficiently destabilize. The potential for severe storms should continue into Saturday and Sunday over the southern and central Plains, as an upper-level trough moves across the region. At this time, model spread is substantial concerning the magnitude and spatial distribution of instability. The models also vary widely on the timing and amplitude of the shortwave trough. For these reasons, will hold off introducing a threat area until the models can show better agreement. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... From Wednesday into Thursday, an upper-level trough will move from the High Plains into the Great Lakes, as a large area of surface high pressure moves across the eastern U.S. Along the western edge of this feature on Thursday, low-level moisture advection is forecast from the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Within this returning airmass, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening. The best chance for severe storms would be across parts of the central Plains, as the low-level jet ramps up in the evening. Uncertainty exists concerning the magnitude of any potential severe threat. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... Moisture advection is forecast to continue on Friday over the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex, as surface dewpoints increase into the 60s F. A slow-moving cold front is forecast to stall in the central Plains, which would be a focus for thunderstorm development. Isolated to scattered storms are also expected on Friday along and to the east of a dryline in the southern High Plains. An isolated severe threat would be possible in areas that sufficiently destabilize. The potential for severe storms should continue into Saturday and Sunday over the southern and central Plains, as an upper-level trough moves across the region. At this time, model spread is substantial concerning the magnitude and spatial distribution of instability. The models also vary widely on the timing and amplitude of the shortwave trough. For these reasons, will hold off introducing a threat area until the models can show better agreement. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... From Wednesday into Thursday, an upper-level trough will move from the High Plains into the Great Lakes, as a large area of surface high pressure moves across the eastern U.S. Along the western edge of this feature on Thursday, low-level moisture advection is forecast from the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Within this returning airmass, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening. The best chance for severe storms would be across parts of the central Plains, as the low-level jet ramps up in the evening. Uncertainty exists concerning the magnitude of any potential severe threat. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... Moisture advection is forecast to continue on Friday over the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex, as surface dewpoints increase into the 60s F. A slow-moving cold front is forecast to stall in the central Plains, which would be a focus for thunderstorm development. Isolated to scattered storms are also expected on Friday along and to the east of a dryline in the southern High Plains. An isolated severe threat would be possible in areas that sufficiently destabilize. The potential for severe storms should continue into Saturday and Sunday over the southern and central Plains, as an upper-level trough moves across the region. At this time, model spread is substantial concerning the magnitude and spatial distribution of instability. The models also vary widely on the timing and amplitude of the shortwave trough. For these reasons, will hold off introducing a threat area until the models can show better agreement. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across parts of the Florida Peninsula, and in the southern Rockies/Four Corners area. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward to near the Mid-Atlantic Seaboard on Tuesday, as a cold front advances southward across the Florida Peninsula. A moist airmass will reside over parts of southern and central Florida on Tuesday, with scattered thunderstorm development possible as surface temperatures warm. Additional thunderstorms will be likely from the Four Corners area eastward into the southern Rockies in the afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough passes through. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2026 Read more