Storm Prediction Center

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across parts of the Florida Peninsula, and in the southern Rockies/Four Corners area. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward to near the Mid-Atlantic Seaboard on Tuesday, as a cold front advances southward across the Florida Peninsula. A moist airmass will reside over parts of southern and central Florida on Tuesday, with scattered thunderstorm development possible as surface temperatures warm. Additional thunderstorms will be likely from the Four Corners area eastward into the southern Rockies in the afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough passes through. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across parts of the Florida Peninsula, and in the southern Rockies/Four Corners area. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward to near the Mid-Atlantic Seaboard on Tuesday, as a cold front advances southward across the Florida Peninsula. A moist airmass will reside over parts of southern and central Florida on Tuesday, with scattered thunderstorm development possible as surface temperatures warm. Additional thunderstorms will be likely from the Four Corners area eastward into the southern Rockies in the afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough passes through. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across parts of the Florida Peninsula, and in the southern Rockies/Four Corners area. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward to near the Mid-Atlantic Seaboard on Tuesday, as a cold front advances southward across the Florida Peninsula. A moist airmass will reside over parts of southern and central Florida on Tuesday, with scattered thunderstorm development possible as surface temperatures warm. Additional thunderstorms will be likely from the Four Corners area eastward into the southern Rockies in the afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough passes through. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging over the West will begin to dampen on D2/Monday as an incoming mid-level trough shifts into the Pacific Northwest and a more second, more subtle, mid-level shortwave trough traverses eastward over the Southwest. Simultaneously, longwave troughing will persist across the Northeast, with a cold front continuing to advance eastward across the Eastern Seaboard. A second cold front will also progress southward across the central Great Plains/Midwest. ...Portions of the central/southern High Plains... Similar to D1/Sunday, a tightened surface pressure gradient will result in sustained southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph over portions of the central/southern High Plains on D2/Monday. With minimum RH values forecast in the 10-15% range during the afternoon and dry, receptive fuels in place across the region, this will promote elevated fire weather concerns for portions of northeastern New Mexico, southeastern Colorado, much of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, and southwestern Kansas. Latest high-res guidance suggests that locally greater sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph may support a brief period of critical fire weather conditions Monday afternoon, with the greatest potential across the western Oklahoma Panhandle and immediately adjacent portions of TX/NM/CO. Critical highlights have been withheld at this time due to uncertainty regarding the magnitude and duration of stronger sustained surface winds as well as timing/positioning discrepancies of an approaching cold front within latest model guidance. Trends will be monitored for a possible upgrade in future outlooks. The aforementioned cold front is forecast to progress slowly southward before stalling in the vicinity of the Elevated area late Monday evening into Monday night, but it remains uncertain as to how far south this front will progress. Areas that do see the passage of the cold front can expect a shift to northeasterly winds and at least some increase in relative humidity. ..Chalmers.. 04/05/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging over the West will begin to dampen on D2/Monday as an incoming mid-level trough shifts into the Pacific Northwest and a more second, more subtle, mid-level shortwave trough traverses eastward over the Southwest. Simultaneously, longwave troughing will persist across the Northeast, with a cold front continuing to advance eastward across the Eastern Seaboard. A second cold front will also progress southward across the central Great Plains/Midwest. ...Portions of the central/southern High Plains... Similar to D1/Sunday, a tightened surface pressure gradient will result in sustained southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph over portions of the central/southern High Plains on D2/Monday. With minimum RH values forecast in the 10-15% range during the afternoon and dry, receptive fuels in place across the region, this will promote elevated fire weather concerns for portions of northeastern New Mexico, southeastern Colorado, much of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, and southwestern Kansas. Latest high-res guidance suggests that locally greater sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph may support a brief period of critical fire weather conditions Monday afternoon, with the greatest potential across the western Oklahoma Panhandle and immediately adjacent portions of TX/NM/CO. Critical highlights have been withheld at this time due to uncertainty regarding the magnitude and duration of stronger sustained surface winds as well as timing/positioning discrepancies of an approaching cold front within latest model guidance. Trends will be monitored for a possible upgrade in future outlooks. The aforementioned cold front is forecast to progress slowly southward before stalling in the vicinity of the Elevated area late Monday evening into Monday night, but it remains uncertain as to how far south this front will progress. Areas that do see the passage of the cold front can expect a shift to northeasterly winds and at least some increase in relative humidity. ..Chalmers.. 04/05/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging over the West will begin to dampen on D2/Monday as an incoming mid-level trough shifts into the Pacific Northwest and a more second, more subtle, mid-level shortwave trough traverses eastward over the Southwest. Simultaneously, longwave troughing will persist across the Northeast, with a cold front continuing to advance eastward across the Eastern Seaboard. A second cold front will also progress southward across the central Great Plains/Midwest. ...Portions of the central/southern High Plains... Similar to D1/Sunday, a tightened surface pressure gradient will result in sustained southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph over portions of the central/southern High Plains on D2/Monday. With minimum RH values forecast in the 10-15% range during the afternoon and dry, receptive fuels in place across the region, this will promote elevated fire weather concerns for portions of northeastern New Mexico, southeastern Colorado, much of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, and southwestern Kansas. Latest high-res guidance suggests that locally greater sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph may support a brief period of critical fire weather conditions Monday afternoon, with the greatest potential across the western Oklahoma Panhandle and immediately adjacent portions of TX/NM/CO. Critical highlights have been withheld at this time due to uncertainty regarding the magnitude and duration of stronger sustained surface winds as well as timing/positioning discrepancies of an approaching cold front within latest model guidance. Trends will be monitored for a possible upgrade in future outlooks. The aforementioned cold front is forecast to progress slowly southward before stalling in the vicinity of the Elevated area late Monday evening into Monday night, but it remains uncertain as to how far south this front will progress. Areas that do see the passage of the cold front can expect a shift to northeasterly winds and at least some increase in relative humidity. ..Chalmers.. 04/05/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will remain in place across the West today with longwave troughing across the Great Lakes region. Concurrently, surface high pressure will prevail across the central/southern Great Plains while a cold front progresses eastward across the East Coast/Southeast. A second cold front will simultaneously move southward across the northern Great Plains. ...Portions of the southern High Plains... A tightened surface pressure gradient between the aforementioned surface high over the central Great Plains and low pressure across the Gulf of California will promote sustained 15-20 mph south-southeasterly return flow across the southern High Plains. With no appreciable moisture return and only limited mid/high cloud cover expected, diurnal heating/mixing are forecast to result in RH values dropping to 10-20% across the same region. With current fuel conditions across portions of the southern High Plains some of the driest within the CONUS, this combination of winds and RH is expected to promote elevated fire weather conditions for at least a few hours this afternoon. Farther south across extreme southeastern New Mexico and portions of West Texas, greater mid/high cloud cover should result in RH values remaining more marginal. While locally elevated fire weather conditions remain possible across this area, the more marginal forecast RH values coupled with greater uncertainty regarding wind speed duration and magnitude preclude a southward expansion of Elevated highlights at this time. ..Chalmers.. 04/05/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will remain in place across the West today with longwave troughing across the Great Lakes region. Concurrently, surface high pressure will prevail across the central/southern Great Plains while a cold front progresses eastward across the East Coast/Southeast. A second cold front will simultaneously move southward across the northern Great Plains. ...Portions of the southern High Plains... A tightened surface pressure gradient between the aforementioned surface high over the central Great Plains and low pressure across the Gulf of California will promote sustained 15-20 mph south-southeasterly return flow across the southern High Plains. With no appreciable moisture return and only limited mid/high cloud cover expected, diurnal heating/mixing are forecast to result in RH values dropping to 10-20% across the same region. With current fuel conditions across portions of the southern High Plains some of the driest within the CONUS, this combination of winds and RH is expected to promote elevated fire weather conditions for at least a few hours this afternoon. Farther south across extreme southeastern New Mexico and portions of West Texas, greater mid/high cloud cover should result in RH values remaining more marginal. While locally elevated fire weather conditions remain possible across this area, the more marginal forecast RH values coupled with greater uncertainty regarding wind speed duration and magnitude preclude a southward expansion of Elevated highlights at this time. ..Chalmers.. 04/05/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will remain in place across the West today with longwave troughing across the Great Lakes region. Concurrently, surface high pressure will prevail across the central/southern Great Plains while a cold front progresses eastward across the East Coast/Southeast. A second cold front will simultaneously move southward across the northern Great Plains. ...Portions of the southern High Plains... A tightened surface pressure gradient between the aforementioned surface high over the central Great Plains and low pressure across the Gulf of California will promote sustained 15-20 mph south-southeasterly return flow across the southern High Plains. With no appreciable moisture return and only limited mid/high cloud cover expected, diurnal heating/mixing are forecast to result in RH values dropping to 10-20% across the same region. With current fuel conditions across portions of the southern High Plains some of the driest within the CONUS, this combination of winds and RH is expected to promote elevated fire weather conditions for at least a few hours this afternoon. Farther south across extreme southeastern New Mexico and portions of West Texas, greater mid/high cloud cover should result in RH values remaining more marginal. While locally elevated fire weather conditions remain possible across this area, the more marginal forecast RH values coupled with greater uncertainty regarding wind speed duration and magnitude preclude a southward expansion of Elevated highlights at this time. ..Chalmers.. 04/05/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... CORRECTED FOR WORDING ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible this afternoon from the eastern Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic region. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the East Coast as upper ridging builds over the Interior West today. This upper air pattern will support a surface trough and accompanying cold front moving offshore over the East Coast as surface high pressure becomes established to the west of the Appalachians, over much of the CONUS. Low-level moisture along the East Coast will promote thunderstorm potential ahead of the cold front given associated deep-layer lifting. A few strong thunderstorms are possible across the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic, where deep-layer ascent and vertical wind shear will be strongest. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic... By late morning into early afternoon, breaks in the clouds from central NC to the NJ shoreline will contribute to boundary layer mixing, along with destabilization (given the presence of 60+ F surface dewpoints). 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading this boundary layer will result in tall, thin CAPE profiles. A few hundred J/kg MLCAPE may develop along the Mid-Atlantic shoreline, with up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible over the eastern Carolinas. As the surface cold front approaches by early afternoon, a line of storms should develop along the cold front. Modestly curved low-level hodographs should support some organization of the squall line, with a few damaging gusts possible during the afternoon. ..Squitieri/Chalmers.. 04/05/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... CORRECTED FOR WORDING ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible this afternoon from the eastern Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic region. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the East Coast as upper ridging builds over the Interior West today. This upper air pattern will support a surface trough and accompanying cold front moving offshore over the East Coast as surface high pressure becomes established to the west of the Appalachians, over much of the CONUS. Low-level moisture along the East Coast will promote thunderstorm potential ahead of the cold front given associated deep-layer lifting. A few strong thunderstorms are possible across the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic, where deep-layer ascent and vertical wind shear will be strongest. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic... By late morning into early afternoon, breaks in the clouds from central NC to the NJ shoreline will contribute to boundary layer mixing, along with destabilization (given the presence of 60+ F surface dewpoints). 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading this boundary layer will result in tall, thin CAPE profiles. A few hundred J/kg MLCAPE may develop along the Mid-Atlantic shoreline, with up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible over the eastern Carolinas. As the surface cold front approaches by early afternoon, a line of storms should develop along the cold front. Modestly curved low-level hodographs should support some organization of the squall line, with a few damaging gusts possible during the afternoon. ..Squitieri/Chalmers.. 04/05/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... CORRECTED FOR WORDING ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible this afternoon from the eastern Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic region. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the East Coast as upper ridging builds over the Interior West today. This upper air pattern will support a surface trough and accompanying cold front moving offshore over the East Coast as surface high pressure becomes established to the west of the Appalachians, over much of the CONUS. Low-level moisture along the East Coast will promote thunderstorm potential ahead of the cold front given associated deep-layer lifting. A few strong thunderstorms are possible across the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic, where deep-layer ascent and vertical wind shear will be strongest. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic... By late morning into early afternoon, breaks in the clouds from central NC to the NJ shoreline will contribute to boundary layer mixing, along with destabilization (given the presence of 60+ F surface dewpoints). 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading this boundary layer will result in tall, thin CAPE profiles. A few hundred J/kg MLCAPE may develop along the Mid-Atlantic shoreline, with up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible over the eastern Carolinas. As the surface cold front approaches by early afternoon, a line of storms should develop along the cold front. Modestly curved low-level hodographs should support some organization of the squall line, with a few damaging gusts possible during the afternoon. ..Squitieri/Chalmers.. 04/05/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Monday across the Florida Peninsula and over parts of the Desert Southwest, but no severe threat is forecast. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move southeastward through the Great Lakes on Monday, as a cold front advances southward into northern Florida. South of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorm development is expected in parts of southern and central Florida. Deep-layer shear across Florida is forecast to be too weak for organized storms. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon across parts of the Desert Southwest. No severe threat is forecast over the continental U.S. Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Monday across the Florida Peninsula and over parts of the Desert Southwest, but no severe threat is forecast. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move southeastward through the Great Lakes on Monday, as a cold front advances southward into northern Florida. South of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorm development is expected in parts of southern and central Florida. Deep-layer shear across Florida is forecast to be too weak for organized storms. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon across parts of the Desert Southwest. No severe threat is forecast over the continental U.S. Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Monday across the Florida Peninsula and over parts of the Desert Southwest, but no severe threat is forecast. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move southeastward through the Great Lakes on Monday, as a cold front advances southward into northern Florida. South of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorm development is expected in parts of southern and central Florida. Deep-layer shear across Florida is forecast to be too weak for organized storms. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon across parts of the Desert Southwest. No severe threat is forecast over the continental U.S. Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AND FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of damaging gusts remain possible across the northern Appalachians this evening, and an instance or two of hail/wind may accompany one of the stronger storms in Deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough continues to progress eastward over the Great Lakes, with surface lee troughing prevalent over the Appalachians and points east. A cold front continues to sweep eastward across the OH/TN Valleys into southern TX, preceded by enough buoyancy to support mainly general thunderstorms. A couple of stronger thunderstorms may still occur over the northern Appalachians and far southern TX. ...PA into the southern Great Lakes... Ahead of the surface cold front, scant buoyancy (e.g. a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE) remains in place per regional 00Z observed soundings. Most of the CAPE is constrained in the 850-600 mb layer, which may support a few strong low topped cells within bands of convection, aided by strong low-level shear, as shown by the soundings. 0-3 km SRH remains in the 200-300 m2/s2 range. As such, while the severe threat is expected to remain sparse at best given poor buoyancy, the strong low-level shear suggests that an additional damaging gust cannot be completely ruled out. ...Deep-South Texas... Multicells continue to propagate southward ahead of a cold front, where ample buoyancy remains in place. While vertical wind shear is poor, 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE, driven by 70 F dewpoints beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates (per the 00Z BRO observed sounding), indicates the potential for a sparse severe hail/gust instance before storms dissipate in the next few hours. ..Squitieri.. 04/05/2026 Read more

WW 0097 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 97 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW CMH TO 30 W MFD TO 30 NNW MFD TO 35 WNW CLE TO 45 NW CLE TO 40 SSE MTC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0362 ..MARSH..04/04/26 ATTN...WFO...DTX...CLE...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 97 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC005-007-033-035-041-043-049-055-075-077-083-085-089-093-097- 099-101-103-117-133-139-151-153-155-159-169-050040- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND ASHTABULA CRAWFORD CUYAHOGA DELAWARE ERIE FRANKLIN GEAUGA HOLMES HURON KNOX LAKE LICKING LORAIN MADISON MAHONING MARION MEDINA MORROW PORTAGE RICHLAND STARK SUMMIT TRUMBULL UNION WAYNE PAC039-049-050040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 97 SEVERE TSTM MI OH PA LE 041850Z - 050100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 97 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 250 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Southeast Lower Michigan Northern and Central Ohio Far Northwest Pennsylvania Lake Erie * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms will move quickly east-northeastward this afternoon and evening while posing a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds. Peak gusts may reach up to 60-70 mph. A tornado or two may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west southwest of Findlay OH to 20 miles southeast of Erie PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 22045. ...Gleason Read more

MD 0361 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0361 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0540 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 042240Z - 050045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to continue across much of southeastern Texas and the lower Mississippi River Valley over the next few hours. A strong wind gust or two is possible. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery depicts scattered to numerous thunderstorms ongoing from southeastern Texas into northern/central Louisiana and much of western Mississippi. Surface temperatures in the upper-70s to lower-80s and dewpoints in the mid-60s to near 70 F are supporting moderate buoyancy of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Moderate mid/upper-level flow is supporting only 20-30 kts of effective bulk shear, which is expected to limit storm organization through this evening. Given only modest low-level lapse rates of 6.5-7.0 C/km, the potential for strong wind gusts appears low, yet an isolated wind gust or two in the 45-55 mph range is possible. The greatest area of potential for a strong gust or two appears to be from northeastern Louisiana into central Mississippi where a weak mid-level disturbance is supporting locally greater effective shear (up to 35 kts per latest mesoanalysis), which promotes marginal storm organization. Given the limited nature of severe potential, watch issuance is unlikely. ..Chalmers/Smith.. 04/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 29659581 30419535 31339433 32499237 33209119 33709039 34058992 34368899 33988849 33318850 32378864 31678911 30968963 30339017 30149188 29779425 29459497 29429547 29519573 29659581 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 0362 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97... FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN OHIO INTO FAR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0362 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0555 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026 Areas affected...much of northern Ohio into far northwest Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 97... Valid 042255Z - 050030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 97 continues. SUMMARY...Forced convection continues in a couple of bands across Ohio this evening. The overall environment should continue to stabilize with the loss of diurnal heating, but a severe gust or brief tornado remains possible for another couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Two narrow bands of convection continue to move across portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #97. The leading band, stretching from near Cleveland, OH, to near Columbus, OH, is being forced on a pre-frontal band of ascent perhaps associated with a cold front aloft. The environment along and ahead of this band is stabilizing as evidenced by recent objectively analyzed MUCAPE fields falling to between 500 and 1000 J/kg and MLCAPE increasingly less than 100 J/kg. Continued stabilization of the lower levels will temper a more widespread severe event despite favorable low level kinematic fields. That said, a severe thunderstorm wind gust or two may remain possible for the next couple of hours given the strength of the low-level flow. To the west of this first band, a second band of convection stretches from the western edge of Lake Erie to near Dayton, OH. This band is being driven by low-level convergence along the surface front. Instability is rather limited ahead of this line, but given the increased surface vorticity along the cold front and strong low-level flow, a damaging wind gust or brief tornado may still be possible, as supported by several small-scale circulations within the last hour across southeast Lower Michigan. With both bands, convective trends will be monitored and unless activity strengthens in the next hour or so, all or portions of the severe thunderstorm watch may be canceled early. ..Marsh.. 04/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX... LAT...LON 39728358 40228347 40248353 40508352 40508339 40658341 40678348 40788349 40828389 41718389 41718375 42108378 42078328 41988314 41878309 41678268 41688238 42208126 42358018 42477985 42257974 42037973 42007958 41627960 41617980 41507997 41478050 40918050 40908105 40708106 40738119 40668124 40648162 40468165 40458216 39938222 39938279 39778282 39818323 39708325 39728358 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more