SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 041700Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes were made to the previous forecast. As was previously
mentioned, rainfall over portions of Texas yesterday and last night
has dampened any fire weather threat there today. Farther west over
portions of southern New Mexico and southeastern Arizona, the
duration, coverage, and magnitude of surface wind is likely to
remain below elevated thresholds according to the latest forecast
guidance. See below for additional details.
..Stearns.. 04/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026/
...Synopsis...
A potent mid-level trough and attendant surface low will progress
northeastward across the Great Lakes region today, with upper-level
ridging building across the West. A trailing cold front will
progress east-southeastward across the Mississippi/Ohio River
Valleys and southern Texas, with high pressure building into the
Great Plains. Cooler temperatures and improving minimum RH values
are expected to preclude widespread fire weather concerns.
...Portions of the Texas Rollings Plains into southern New Mexico
and southeastern Arizona...
High resolution guidance continues to depict the potential for
locally elevated fire weather concerns from portions of the Texas
Rolling Plains into southern New Mexico/southeastern Arizona where
sustained northeasterly to easterly surface winds around 15 mph may
briefly overlap reduced RH below 20%. The best chance for locally
elevated fire weather conditions appears to be across the Lowland
Desert of southwestern New Mexico into the San Simon Valley of
southeastern Arizona where terrain effects may locally enhance
sustained winds amid low RH values of 15-20%. Uncertainty in the
duration and areal extent of winds above 15 mph precludes the
addition of Elevated highlights at this time.
Farther east across portions of the Texas Rolling Plains, recent and
ongoing precipitation is expected to limit widespread fire weather
concerns. Locally elevated conditions will be possible for areas
that did not see appreciable rainfall accumulation over the last 48
hours, however.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 041300Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of damaging winds and a tornado risk are
expected across parts of the Lower Great Lakes and middle/upper Ohio
River Valley, mainly this afternoon through early evening. Other
more isolated severe storms may occur across the Tennessee Valley,
Lower Mississippi Valley, and eastern part of Texas.
...Ohio/Eastern Indiana/Lower Michigan to Pennsylvania/New York...
A shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest early today will continue
northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes through tonight.
Cyclonically influenced strengthening deep-layer southwesterlies
(50+ kt 700 mb) will overspread Indiana/Michigan toward the Lower
Great Lakes, atop a steadily moistening/heating warm-sector boundary
layer along and north of the Ohio River.
This will be ahead of a surface low and cold front, that is
considerably augmented by generally weakening thunderstorms and
prevalent lingering clouds/outflows through the pre-dawn hours.
These residual factors cast uncertainty regarding the magnitude of
today's overall potential, but a formidable flow field and
guidance-advertised heating/steady diurnal destabilization will
still be supportive of at least some severe potential regionally as
storms redevelop and intensify this afternoon. This includes
damaging wind potential, particularly given the magnitude of
low/mid-tropospheric winds and boundary layer mixing, with some
tornado threat as well, mainly in vicinity of the triple
point/nearby warm front. Overall storm intensities should decrease
by mid/late evening, owing to nocturnal boundary-layer influences
and the primary upper-level system spreading away from the region.
...Tennessee Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley/Texas ...
While diminishing in intensity overnight, showers/thunderstorms
remain extensive and prevalent from the Mid-South/Ozarks
southwestward into North Texas, as a synoptic cold front otherwise
continues to progress southeastward across these regions. While
details are complexified by considerable cloud cover and lingering
storms, multiple corridors of reinvigorating storms should
materialize this afternoon where more appreciable cloud
breaks/heating occur. Downbursts/locally damaging winds will be the
primary severe hazard, but this is currently expected to be on a
relatively isolated/episodic basis.
..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/04/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 041300Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of damaging winds and a tornado risk are
expected across parts of the Lower Great Lakes and middle/upper Ohio
River Valley, mainly this afternoon through early evening. Other
more isolated severe storms may occur across the Tennessee Valley,
Lower Mississippi Valley, and eastern part of Texas.
...Ohio/Eastern Indiana/Lower Michigan to Pennsylvania/New York...
A shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest early today will continue
northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes through tonight.
Cyclonically influenced strengthening deep-layer southwesterlies
(50+ kt 700 mb) will overspread Indiana/Michigan toward the Lower
Great Lakes, atop a steadily moistening/heating warm-sector boundary
layer along and north of the Ohio River.
This will be ahead of a surface low and cold front, that is
considerably augmented by generally weakening thunderstorms and
prevalent lingering clouds/outflows through the pre-dawn hours.
These residual factors cast uncertainty regarding the magnitude of
today's overall potential, but a formidable flow field and
guidance-advertised heating/steady diurnal destabilization will
still be supportive of at least some severe potential regionally as
storms redevelop and intensify this afternoon. This includes
damaging wind potential, particularly given the magnitude of
low/mid-tropospheric winds and boundary layer mixing, with some
tornado threat as well, mainly in vicinity of the triple
point/nearby warm front. Overall storm intensities should decrease
by mid/late evening, owing to nocturnal boundary-layer influences
and the primary upper-level system spreading away from the region.
...Tennessee Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley/Texas ...
While diminishing in intensity overnight, showers/thunderstorms
remain extensive and prevalent from the Mid-South/Ozarks
southwestward into North Texas, as a synoptic cold front otherwise
continues to progress southeastward across these regions. While
details are complexified by considerable cloud cover and lingering
storms, multiple corridors of reinvigorating storms should
materialize this afternoon where more appreciable cloud
breaks/heating occur. Downbursts/locally damaging winds will be the
primary severe hazard, but this is currently expected to be on a
relatively isolated/episodic basis.
..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/04/2026
Read more
MD 0355 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 95... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0355
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Areas affected...South-central Oklahoma into north-central Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 95...
Valid 040803Z - 041000Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 95
continues.
SUMMARY...Locally damaging gusts remain possible with a
back-building MCS. A downstream watch issuance is not currently
expected, though trends will be monitored.
DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from KFDR shows a back-building
MCS moving slowly southward across south-central OK into
north-central TX. The FWS VWP is sampling a 50-kt southerly
low-level jet and related warm-air advection feeding into this
convective system, and given upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and
30 to 40 kt of deep-layer shear, locally damaging gusts will remain
possible. However, given the orientation of the MCS with respect to
the deep-layer shear and low-level jet, anafrontal convection should
continue to limit the overall severe risk. The one exception is
along the Red River in south-central OK and north-central TX, where
the westerly deep-layer shear has an oblique orientation to the
line, which could support new convective development along/ahead of
the gust front and a relatively greater damaging-wind risk in the
near-term. Current thinking is that the severe risk will remain too
localized and marginal for a new downstream watch, though trends
will be monitored.
..Weinman/Guyer.. 04/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 33489886 33979778 34429726 34529687 34459646 34249619
33899616 33439649 32689773 32589829 32839881 33229899
33489886
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5...
A large area of surface high pressure will settle in across the
continental U.S. on Tuesday and Wednesday. The associated dry and
cool airmass will limit thunderstorm potential in most areas.
...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8...
On Thursday, a cold front is forecast to move southward into the
central Plains and stall, as moisture advection takes place to the
south of the front over much of the southern Plains. A dryline is
forecast to setup over west Texas Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorm
development will be likely along parts of the front and to the east
of the dryline. An isolated severe threat will be possible in the
afternoon and evening. Models differ considerably on the
distribution of instability, with some suggesting that instability
will remain relatively weak. This would keep any severe threat
marginal in most areas.
On Friday and Saturday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to
be in place over the southern half of Texas, as a shortwave trough
moves northeastward across the region. Lift associated with this
feature would support scattered thunderstorm development. The
greatest severe potential both Friday and Saturday appears to be
across south-central Texas, where the models have moderate
deep-layer shear and sufficient instability. At this extended range,
uncertainty concerning magnitude and spacing is substantial.
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5...
A large area of surface high pressure will settle in across the
continental U.S. on Tuesday and Wednesday. The associated dry and
cool airmass will limit thunderstorm potential in most areas.
...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8...
On Thursday, a cold front is forecast to move southward into the
central Plains and stall, as moisture advection takes place to the
south of the front over much of the southern Plains. A dryline is
forecast to setup over west Texas Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorm
development will be likely along parts of the front and to the east
of the dryline. An isolated severe threat will be possible in the
afternoon and evening. Models differ considerably on the
distribution of instability, with some suggesting that instability
will remain relatively weak. This would keep any severe threat
marginal in most areas.
On Friday and Saturday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to
be in place over the southern half of Texas, as a shortwave trough
moves northeastward across the region. Lift associated with this
feature would support scattered thunderstorm development. The
greatest severe potential both Friday and Saturday appears to be
across south-central Texas, where the models have moderate
deep-layer shear and sufficient instability. At this extended range,
uncertainty concerning magnitude and spacing is substantial.
Read more
WW 0096 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 96
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E FSM TO
30 NW UNO.
..WEINMAN..04/04/26
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 96
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-029-049-065-071-083-089-101-105-115-127-129-137-141-149-
040940-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER CONWAY FULTON
IZARD JOHNSON LOGAN
MARION NEWTON PERRY
POPE SCOTT SEARCY
STONE VAN BUREN YELL
MOC091-149-153-040940-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HOWELL OREGON OZARK
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 96 SEVERE TSTM AR MO 040655Z - 041200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 96
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
155 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western and Northern Arkansas
Southern Missouri
* Effective this Saturday morning from 155 AM until 700 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A broken linear band of storms, and possibly a few
supercells ahead of it, will continue east-northeastward across the
region overnight, with damaging winds and possibly some tornado
risk.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles north northwest
of West Plains MO to 50 miles southwest of Russellville AR. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 95...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25025.
...Guyer
Read more
WW 0095 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 95
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E SPS TO
20 N ADM TO 15 ENE FSM.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0355
..WEINMAN..04/04/26
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...OUN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 95
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC047-131-040940-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN SEBASTIAN
OKC005-013-019-029-067-069-077-079-085-095-099-121-123-040940-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
COAL JEFFERSON JOHNSTON
LATIMER LE FLORE LOVE
MARSHALL MURRAY PITTSBURG
PONTOTOC
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
Read more
WW 95 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 040240Z - 041000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 95
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
940 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northwest Arkansas
Far Southeast Kansas
Southwest into South-Central Missouri
Southern into Eastern Oklahoma
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 940 PM
until 500 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A broken squall line with a few severe linear thunderstorm
clusters will continue to move eastward across the Watch through the
late evening and into the overnight. Severe gusts ranging from
60-85 mph are possible with the more intense clusters. A brief
tornado is possible with a stronger mesovortex.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles west northwest
of Fort Leonard Wood MO to 45 miles west southwest of Ardmore OK.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 93...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Smith
Read more
MD 0350 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 0350
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1027 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Areas affected...portions of the western Great Lakes region
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 040327Z - 040930Z
SUMMARY...Moderate freezing rain is expected to expand across
portions of the western Great Lakes region over the next 1-2 hours,
with the potential for rates of 0.10 to perhaps 0.25 inch per three
hours.
DISCUSSION...Latest mesoanalysis depicts a surface low over central
Iowa with a warm front extending eastward across portions of
northern Illinois/Indiana. To the north of this surface boundary,
strong low-level warm air advection and frontogenetic forcing (noted
around 850 mb per latest mesoanalysis) will support the
development/expansion of a broad precipitation shield noted via
regional radar imagery. With the lower-tropospheric warm air
advection regime supporting a notable warm nose within the 850-700
mb layer (evident in the 00Z MPX observed sounding) and surface wet
bulb temperatures around 30 F, freezing rain is expected to be the
dominant precipitation type across much of northern Wisconsin,
extreme eastern Minnesota, and the western Upper Peninsula of
Michigan, with the potential for rates to exceed 0.10, perhaps up to
0.25, inch per three hours.
With time, a mid-level shortwave trough currently analyzed across
the northern Great Plains and the aforementioned surface low will
shift northeastward, yielding an eastward expansion of the freezing
rain threat into the rest of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and
extreme northern Lower Michigan.
..Chalmers.. 04/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 46518748 46268706 45838714 45368752 45048776 44848800
44718846 44788944 44888993 45179051 45369089 45529168
45599241 45609301 45649337 45879346 46319321 46559244
46639156 46679119 46749034 46808941 46718845 46518748
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Monday in
south-central Florida and over parts of the Desert Southwest, but no
severe threat is forecast.
...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough and an associated mid-level jet streak will
move across the Great Lakes on Monday, as a cold front advances
southward into northern Florida. To the south of the front,
scattered thunderstorms are expected to form within a moist airmass
over the southern and central Florida Peninsula during the
afternoon. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be near or below 20
knots, suggesting the storms will remain below severe limits.
Additional thunderstorms are expected to form in the Desert
Southwest. No severe threat is forecast across the continental U.S.
Monday and Monday night.
..Broyles.. 04/04/2026
Read more
MD 0354 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 95... FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL OK...WESTERN AR...AND SOUTHERN MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0354
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Areas affected...Far east-central OK...western AR...and southern MO
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 95...
Valid 040632Z - 040800Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 95
continues.
SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado remain
possible. It is unclear if a downstream watch is needed, though
trends are being monitored.
DISCUSSION...Along the southern portion of an expansive QLCS
extending from the Midwest southward into the southern Plains, a
north/south-oriented segment of the line in far east-central OK will
pose the greatest risk of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado into western AR during the next couple hours. Here, around
40 kt of deep-layer shear is oriented orthogonal to the line, which
is favoring updrafts keeping pace with the gust front, as well as
new cells developing immediately ahead of the line. Relatively
greater surface-based buoyancy (albeit limited) and a 40-50 kt
low-level jet (per VWP data) near this portion of the line will
continue to support damaging wind gusts and embedded circulations
capable of producing a brief tornado. Decreasing buoyancy and
forcing for ascent with eastward extent casts uncertainty on the
downstream severe risk and need for a new watch, though trends are
being monitored.
..Weinman/Guyer.. 04/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 35039499 35519476 35929443 36559380 37329352 37559329
37739278 37649230 37389202 36929197 36369218 35439288
34889366 34749437 34849479 35039499
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will be in place across the West on D2/Sunday,
with longwave upper-level troughing across the Great
Lakes/Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will remain in place
across the central Great Plains while a cold front progresses
eastward across the East Coast and Southeast. A second cold front
will simultaneously move southward across the northern Great Plains.
...Portions of the Southern High Plains...
A tightened pressure gradient on the western periphery of the
aforementioned surface high will favor sustained 15-20 mph
south-southeasterly return flow across the southern High Plains.
With no appreciable moisture return and only limited mid/high cloud
cover expected, diurnal heating/mixing are forecast to result in RH
values dropping to 10-20% across much of southern High Plains. This
combination of winds and RH atop dry, receptive fuels should promote
elevated fire weather conditions for at least a few hours Sunday
afternoon. Trends will be monitored for a potential southward
expansion of Elevated highlights; however, uncertainty owing to
greater mid/high cloud cover and more marginal RH values precludes
such an expansion at this time.
..Chalmers.. 04/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will be in place across the West on D2/Sunday,
with longwave upper-level troughing across the Great
Lakes/Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will remain in place
across the central Great Plains while a cold front progresses
eastward across the East Coast and Southeast. A second cold front
will simultaneously move southward across the northern Great Plains.
...Portions of the Southern High Plains...
A tightened pressure gradient on the western periphery of the
aforementioned surface high will favor sustained 15-20 mph
south-southeasterly return flow across the southern High Plains.
With no appreciable moisture return and only limited mid/high cloud
cover expected, diurnal heating/mixing are forecast to result in RH
values dropping to 10-20% across much of southern High Plains. This
combination of winds and RH atop dry, receptive fuels should promote
elevated fire weather conditions for at least a few hours Sunday
afternoon. Trends will be monitored for a potential southward
expansion of Elevated highlights; however, uncertainty owing to
greater mid/high cloud cover and more marginal RH values precludes
such an expansion at this time.
..Chalmers.. 04/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A potent mid-level trough and attendant surface low will progress
northeastward across the Great Lakes region today, with upper-level
ridging building across the West. A trailing cold front will
progress east-southeastward across the Mississippi/Ohio River
Valleys and southern Texas, with high pressure building into the
Great Plains. Cooler temperatures and improving minimum RH values
are expected to preclude widespread fire weather concerns.
...Portions of the Texas Rollings Plains into southern New Mexico
and southeastern Arizona...
High resolution guidance continues to depict the potential for
locally elevated fire weather concerns from portions of the Texas
Rolling Plains into southern New Mexico/southeastern Arizona where
sustained northeasterly to easterly surface winds around 15 mph may
briefly overlap reduced RH below 20%. The best chance for locally
elevated fire weather conditions appears to be across the Lowland
Desert of southwestern New Mexico into the San Simon Valley of
southeastern Arizona where terrain effects may locally enhance
sustained winds amid low RH values of 15-20%. Uncertainty in the
duration and areal extent of winds above 15 mph precludes the
addition of Elevated highlights at this time.
Farther east across portions of the Texas Rolling Plains, recent and
ongoing precipitation is expected to limit widespread fire weather
concerns. Locally elevated conditions will be possible for areas
that did not see appreciable rainfall accumulation over the last 48
hours, however.
..Chalmers.. 04/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A potent mid-level trough and attendant surface low will progress
northeastward across the Great Lakes region today, with upper-level
ridging building across the West. A trailing cold front will
progress east-southeastward across the Mississippi/Ohio River
Valleys and southern Texas, with high pressure building into the
Great Plains. Cooler temperatures and improving minimum RH values
are expected to preclude widespread fire weather concerns.
...Portions of the Texas Rollings Plains into southern New Mexico
and southeastern Arizona...
High resolution guidance continues to depict the potential for
locally elevated fire weather concerns from portions of the Texas
Rolling Plains into southern New Mexico/southeastern Arizona where
sustained northeasterly to easterly surface winds around 15 mph may
briefly overlap reduced RH below 20%. The best chance for locally
elevated fire weather conditions appears to be across the Lowland
Desert of southwestern New Mexico into the San Simon Valley of
southeastern Arizona where terrain effects may locally enhance
sustained winds amid low RH values of 15-20%. Uncertainty in the
duration and areal extent of winds above 15 mph precludes the
addition of Elevated highlights at this time.
Farther east across portions of the Texas Rolling Plains, recent and
ongoing precipitation is expected to limit widespread fire weather
concerns. Locally elevated conditions will be possible for areas
that did not see appreciable rainfall accumulation over the last 48
hours, however.
..Chalmers.. 04/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST....
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible on
Sunday afternoon from the eastern Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic
coast.
...Eastern Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic Coast...
An upper-level trough will move across the lower Great Lakes on
Sunday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic
and Carolinas. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to
mid 60s will contribute to weak instability by afternoon. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form just ahead of the
front from southern Maryland south-southwestward into the eastern
Carolinas. Forecast soundings along this corridor have 35 to 40
knots of flow in the 500 to 1000 meter layer above ground level.
Cells that develop in the mid to late afternoon in areas that
destabilize the most could mix these strong winds to the surface,
resulting in an isolated wind-damage threat.
..Broyles.. 04/04/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST....
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible on
Sunday afternoon from the eastern Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic
coast.
...Eastern Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic Coast...
An upper-level trough will move across the lower Great Lakes on
Sunday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic
and Carolinas. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to
mid 60s will contribute to weak instability by afternoon. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form just ahead of the
front from southern Maryland south-southwestward into the eastern
Carolinas. Forecast soundings along this corridor have 35 to 40
knots of flow in the 500 to 1000 meter layer above ground level.
Cells that develop in the mid to late afternoon in areas that
destabilize the most could mix these strong winds to the surface,
resulting in an isolated wind-damage threat.
..Broyles.. 04/04/2026
Read more
