MD 0360 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0360
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Areas affected...portions of the Tennessee River Valley into
central/eastern Kentucky
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 042211Z - 050015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms may bring strong to occasionally
damaging wind gusts to portions of northern Alabama, Middle/eastern
Tennessee, and central/eastern Kentucky over the next 1-2 hours.
Watch issuance is unlikely at this time.
DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms in a weakly unstable
environment characterized by 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE (per latest
mesoanalysis) are ongoing from portions of northern Alabama into
Middle Tennessee and south-central Kentucky, with a 47-kt wind gust
recently reported at Smyrna Airport (KMQY ASOS). Weak effective bulk
shear of only 20-25 kts is expected to limit overall storm
organization through this afternoon/evening; however, steep
low-level lapse rates of 7.5-8.0 C/km will support at least some
potential for strong to occasionally damaging wind gusts with
stronger convective cores. Watch issuance is not anticipated given
only marginal potential for convective organization and magnitude of
the threat.
..Chalmers/Smith.. 04/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...
LAT...LON 35368428 34718537 34268654 33978743 33978808 34258817
34858781 35428732 35888684 36378661 37078620 37588595
37748577 38248485 38228370 37808284 36988282 35918364
35368428
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
Read more
WW 0097 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 97
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW CMH
TO 30 W MFD TO 30 NNW MFD TO 35 WNW CLE TO 45 NW CLE TO 40 SSE
MTC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0362
..MARSH..04/04/26
ATTN...WFO...DTX...CLE...ILN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 97
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OHC005-007-033-035-041-043-049-055-075-077-083-085-089-093-097-
099-101-103-117-133-139-151-153-155-159-169-050040-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLAND ASHTABULA CRAWFORD
CUYAHOGA DELAWARE ERIE
FRANKLIN GEAUGA HOLMES
HURON KNOX LAKE
LICKING LORAIN MADISON
MAHONING MARION MEDINA
MORROW PORTAGE RICHLAND
STARK SUMMIT TRUMBULL
UNION WAYNE
PAC039-049-050040-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more
WW 97 SEVERE TSTM MI OH PA LE 041850Z - 050100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 97
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
250 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Far Southeast Lower Michigan
Northern and Central Ohio
Far Northwest Pennsylvania
Lake Erie
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until
900 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms will move quickly
east-northeastward this afternoon and evening while posing a threat
for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds. Peak gusts may reach up
to 60-70 mph. A tornado or two may also occur.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west southwest
of Findlay OH to 20 miles southeast of Erie PA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector
22045.
...Gleason
Read more
MD 0359 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97... FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN OHIO INTO FAR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0359
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Areas affected...much of northern Ohio into far northwest
Pennsylvania
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 97...
Valid 042039Z - 042245Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 97
continues.
SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms remain possible through
late afternoon across the watch area.
DISCUSSION...A leading line of thunderstorms well ahead of the cold
front moved across northwest OH and far southeast Lower MI earlier
this afternoon, producing locally damaging gusts. This line has
since weakened and is now entering into central OH.
The air mass continues to warm across eastern areas, and some
rejuvenation is possible. Further, 0-1 km shear on the order of
100-175 m2/s2 exists over northern OH and eastward along the south
shores of Lake Erie, which may aid rotation within any storms that
move into that zone. The CLE VWP shows 0-1 SRH around 175 m2/s2 with
0-3 km shear of 42 kt.
Farther west, a narrow line of convection is forming along the cold
front into far eastern IN and into northwest OH/southeast Lower MI.
Instability is weak here, but pockets of destabilization in the wake
of the earlier activity may allow for at least isolated severe
gusts. Low-level shear is comparably favorable here as well,
possibly supporting QLCS structures should convection become
sufficiently established.
..Jewell.. 04/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BUF...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...
LAT...LON 40318524 41218475 42238444 42418425 42428349 42268302
41928276 42128094 42438005 42277969 41727998 40958084
40588169 40088251 39858347 40128506 40318524
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0430 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 121200Z
Upper-level ridging over the western US will begin to dampen on Day
3/Monday as due to an incoming trough over the Pacific Northwest.
Meanwhile, an upper-level trough and significant cold front will be
moving across the Eastern Seaboard, having left accumulated
precipitation across much of the central and eastern US. The second
trough will contribute to near-zonal flow across the southern half
of the CONUS on Day 5/Wednesday as it moves along the Canadian
border. On Day 6/Thursday, a cutoff upper-level low approaches the
central California coast. Recent forecast guidance suggests that it
will remain over California through Day 8/Saturday, contributing to
potentially multiple days of precipitation, particularly over
California and the western Great Basin.
...Southern Plains (Day 3/Monday and Day 5/Wednesday)...
Very similar to, but slightly east of, Day 2/Sunday, a tightened
surface pressure gradient will result in sustained south-southwest
winds of 15-20 mph over portions of the southern High Plains. This
combination of wind with afternoon RHs of 10-15%, supports continued
40% probabilities over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and much of
southwest Kansas. Another day of tightened surface pressure gradient
supports south-southwest winds of up to 20 mph and RHs down to
10-15% over portions of the southern High Plains again on Day
5/Wednesday. Much of this region is favored for accumulating
precipitation as the aforementioned low pressure system moves inland
likely late next week.
...Southeast (Day 4/Tuesday and Day 5/Wednesday)...
One area that the latest forecast guidance leaves out of much of the
accumulating precipitation is just south/east of central and
southern Appalachian Mountains (especially over southern Georgia and
South Carolina). Offshore flow will likely contribute to elevated
fire weather conditions on Day 4/Tuesday across southern Georgia and
Day 5/Wednesday over eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina.
However, fuel receptivity remains in question due to preceding
precipitation, especially on Day 2/Sunday and Day 3/Monday.
...Great Basin/Southwest (Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday)...
While some potential for critical conditions will exist across
portions of the eastern Great Basin and surrounding areas as the
upper-level ridge breaks down on Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday,
recent precipitation and resultant questionably receptive fuels will
preclude any probabilities. While this event will dry fuels across
this region, additional precipitation appears likely with the
aforementioned low pressure system later in the week.
..Stearns.. 04/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0430 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 121200Z
Upper-level ridging over the western US will begin to dampen on Day
3/Monday as due to an incoming trough over the Pacific Northwest.
Meanwhile, an upper-level trough and significant cold front will be
moving across the Eastern Seaboard, having left accumulated
precipitation across much of the central and eastern US. The second
trough will contribute to near-zonal flow across the southern half
of the CONUS on Day 5/Wednesday as it moves along the Canadian
border. On Day 6/Thursday, a cutoff upper-level low approaches the
central California coast. Recent forecast guidance suggests that it
will remain over California through Day 8/Saturday, contributing to
potentially multiple days of precipitation, particularly over
California and the western Great Basin.
...Southern Plains (Day 3/Monday and Day 5/Wednesday)...
Very similar to, but slightly east of, Day 2/Sunday, a tightened
surface pressure gradient will result in sustained south-southwest
winds of 15-20 mph over portions of the southern High Plains. This
combination of wind with afternoon RHs of 10-15%, supports continued
40% probabilities over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and much of
southwest Kansas. Another day of tightened surface pressure gradient
supports south-southwest winds of up to 20 mph and RHs down to
10-15% over portions of the southern High Plains again on Day
5/Wednesday. Much of this region is favored for accumulating
precipitation as the aforementioned low pressure system moves inland
likely late next week.
...Southeast (Day 4/Tuesday and Day 5/Wednesday)...
One area that the latest forecast guidance leaves out of much of the
accumulating precipitation is just south/east of central and
southern Appalachian Mountains (especially over southern Georgia and
South Carolina). Offshore flow will likely contribute to elevated
fire weather conditions on Day 4/Tuesday across southern Georgia and
Day 5/Wednesday over eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina.
However, fuel receptivity remains in question due to preceding
precipitation, especially on Day 2/Sunday and Day 3/Monday.
...Great Basin/Southwest (Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday)...
While some potential for critical conditions will exist across
portions of the eastern Great Basin and surrounding areas as the
upper-level ridge breaks down on Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday,
recent precipitation and resultant questionably receptive fuels will
preclude any probabilities. While this event will dry fuels across
this region, additional precipitation appears likely with the
aforementioned low pressure system later in the week.
..Stearns.. 04/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0430 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 121200Z
Upper-level ridging over the western US will begin to dampen on Day
3/Monday as due to an incoming trough over the Pacific Northwest.
Meanwhile, an upper-level trough and significant cold front will be
moving across the Eastern Seaboard, having left accumulated
precipitation across much of the central and eastern US. The second
trough will contribute to near-zonal flow across the southern half
of the CONUS on Day 5/Wednesday as it moves along the Canadian
border. On Day 6/Thursday, a cutoff upper-level low approaches the
central California coast. Recent forecast guidance suggests that it
will remain over California through Day 8/Saturday, contributing to
potentially multiple days of precipitation, particularly over
California and the western Great Basin.
...Southern Plains (Day 3/Monday and Day 5/Wednesday)...
Very similar to, but slightly east of, Day 2/Sunday, a tightened
surface pressure gradient will result in sustained south-southwest
winds of 15-20 mph over portions of the southern High Plains. This
combination of wind with afternoon RHs of 10-15%, supports continued
40% probabilities over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and much of
southwest Kansas. Another day of tightened surface pressure gradient
supports south-southwest winds of up to 20 mph and RHs down to
10-15% over portions of the southern High Plains again on Day
5/Wednesday. Much of this region is favored for accumulating
precipitation as the aforementioned low pressure system moves inland
likely late next week.
...Southeast (Day 4/Tuesday and Day 5/Wednesday)...
One area that the latest forecast guidance leaves out of much of the
accumulating precipitation is just south/east of central and
southern Appalachian Mountains (especially over southern Georgia and
South Carolina). Offshore flow will likely contribute to elevated
fire weather conditions on Day 4/Tuesday across southern Georgia and
Day 5/Wednesday over eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina.
However, fuel receptivity remains in question due to preceding
precipitation, especially on Day 2/Sunday and Day 3/Monday.
...Great Basin/Southwest (Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday)...
While some potential for critical conditions will exist across
portions of the eastern Great Basin and surrounding areas as the
upper-level ridge breaks down on Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday,
recent precipitation and resultant questionably receptive fuels will
preclude any probabilities. While this event will dry fuels across
this region, additional precipitation appears likely with the
aforementioned low pressure system later in the week.
..Stearns.. 04/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
WW 0097 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 97
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE DAY
TO 40 WNW CMH TO 20 S FDY TO 15 SW FDY TO 40 WSW FDY.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0097
..JEWELL..04/04/26
ATTN...WFO...DTX...CLE...ILN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 97
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC115-042140-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MONROE
OHC005-007-033-035-041-043-049-055-063-075-077-083-085-089-093-
095-097-099-101-103-117-123-133-139-143-147-151-153-155-159-169-
173-175-042140-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLAND ASHTABULA CRAWFORD
CUYAHOGA DELAWARE ERIE
FRANKLIN GEAUGA HANCOCK
HOLMES HURON KNOX
LAKE LICKING LORAIN
LUCAS MADISON MAHONING
MARION MEDINA MORROW
OTTAWA PORTAGE RICHLAND
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 042000Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW
YORK STATE...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging winds
and perhaps a tornado or two remain possible across parts of the
Lower Great Lakes and middle/upper Ohio River Valley region this
afternoon through early evening. Other more isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the the Tennessee
Valley, Lower Mississippi Valley, and central/east/south Texas.
...20z Update Great Lakes Region...
A band of thunderstorms ahead of the eastward progressing cold front
will continue across northern OH this afternoon before moving into
western PA and southwest NY this evening. Diurnal steepening of
low-level lapse rates amid fairly strong, but unidirectional flow
aloft will continue to support a risk for damaging gusts. A brief
tornado also remains possible with any rotating elements, especially
near the southern shores of Lake Erie near the stalled warm
front/lake boundary. Have trimmed severe and thunder probabilities
behind the front over IN where the risk has decreased.
...TN Valley to the Southeast and South TX...
Ahead of the southern portions of the cold front, a warm, moist, and
unstable air mass will support widespread thunderstorm activity from
parts of the TN Valley, Southeast and into South TX. In the absence
of steep mid-level lapse rates and stronger vertical shear
(especially with southward extent), storm organization should be
transient and limited. Still, the moist environment and some veering
winds the lowest few km could support an occasional stronger or
briefly rotating storm. Any clustering could support occasional
damaging gusts or small hail with stronger updrafts near the front.
The outlook remains valid with only minor adjustments to the western
extent of thunder and severe probabilities.
..Lyons.. 04/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026/
...Midwest/Lower Michigan to Pennsylvania and Western New York...
An upper trough over the Upper Midwest late this morning will
continue moving northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes through
tonight. Strengthening deep-layer southwesterlies (with 50+ kt
present at 700 mb) will overspread IN/MI toward the Lower Great
Lakes atop a gradually moistening/heating boundary layer along and
north of the Ohio River.
This will occur ahead of a surface low over WI/MI and convectively
reinforced/southeastward-developing cold front that will impact
parts of the Midwest/OH Valley this afternoon. Recent visible
satellite trends showing clearing across much of OH into northwest
PA suggest sufficient heating and modest diurnal destabilization
will support at least some severe potential regionally as
thunderstorms redevelop and intensify this afternoon along/ahead of
the cold front. Given steepening low-lapse rates and enhanced
low/mid-level southwesterly flow, scattered severe/damaging winds
should be the main threat. But, there may also be some potential for
a tornado or two as well, mainly in vicinity of the triple
point/nearby warm front that will extend eastward into central PA.
Overall updraft intensities should decrease by mid to late evening,
owing to stabilizing/nocturnal boundary-layer influences, and the
primary upper trough/low moving northeastward away from the region.
...Tennessee Valley into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Texas...
Showers and occasional thunderstorms remain extensive this morning
from the Mid-South southwestward into northeast TX, as a surface
cold front continues to progress southeastward across these areas.
Even with considerable cloud cover and poor lapse rates aloft ahead
of this ongoing activity, multiple corridors of reinvigorated
convective clusters should develop this afternoon where some cloud
breaks/filtered heating can occur. Downbursts with locally damaging
winds should be the primary severe hazard, but this threat is
expected to remain relatively isolated given lessening deep-layer
shear with southward extent into the lower MS Valley/TX.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 042000Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW
YORK STATE...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging winds
and perhaps a tornado or two remain possible across parts of the
Lower Great Lakes and middle/upper Ohio River Valley region this
afternoon through early evening. Other more isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the the Tennessee
Valley, Lower Mississippi Valley, and central/east/south Texas.
...20z Update Great Lakes Region...
A band of thunderstorms ahead of the eastward progressing cold front
will continue across northern OH this afternoon before moving into
western PA and southwest NY this evening. Diurnal steepening of
low-level lapse rates amid fairly strong, but unidirectional flow
aloft will continue to support a risk for damaging gusts. A brief
tornado also remains possible with any rotating elements, especially
near the southern shores of Lake Erie near the stalled warm
front/lake boundary. Have trimmed severe and thunder probabilities
behind the front over IN where the risk has decreased.
...TN Valley to the Southeast and South TX...
Ahead of the southern portions of the cold front, a warm, moist, and
unstable air mass will support widespread thunderstorm activity from
parts of the TN Valley, Southeast and into South TX. In the absence
of steep mid-level lapse rates and stronger vertical shear
(especially with southward extent), storm organization should be
transient and limited. Still, the moist environment and some veering
winds the lowest few km could support an occasional stronger or
briefly rotating storm. Any clustering could support occasional
damaging gusts or small hail with stronger updrafts near the front.
The outlook remains valid with only minor adjustments to the western
extent of thunder and severe probabilities.
..Lyons.. 04/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026/
...Midwest/Lower Michigan to Pennsylvania and Western New York...
An upper trough over the Upper Midwest late this morning will
continue moving northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes through
tonight. Strengthening deep-layer southwesterlies (with 50+ kt
present at 700 mb) will overspread IN/MI toward the Lower Great
Lakes atop a gradually moistening/heating boundary layer along and
north of the Ohio River.
This will occur ahead of a surface low over WI/MI and convectively
reinforced/southeastward-developing cold front that will impact
parts of the Midwest/OH Valley this afternoon. Recent visible
satellite trends showing clearing across much of OH into northwest
PA suggest sufficient heating and modest diurnal destabilization
will support at least some severe potential regionally as
thunderstorms redevelop and intensify this afternoon along/ahead of
the cold front. Given steepening low-lapse rates and enhanced
low/mid-level southwesterly flow, scattered severe/damaging winds
should be the main threat. But, there may also be some potential for
a tornado or two as well, mainly in vicinity of the triple
point/nearby warm front that will extend eastward into central PA.
Overall updraft intensities should decrease by mid to late evening,
owing to stabilizing/nocturnal boundary-layer influences, and the
primary upper trough/low moving northeastward away from the region.
...Tennessee Valley into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Texas...
Showers and occasional thunderstorms remain extensive this morning
from the Mid-South southwestward into northeast TX, as a surface
cold front continues to progress southeastward across these areas.
Even with considerable cloud cover and poor lapse rates aloft ahead
of this ongoing activity, multiple corridors of reinvigorated
convective clusters should develop this afternoon where some cloud
breaks/filtered heating can occur. Downbursts with locally damaging
winds should be the primary severe hazard, but this threat is
expected to remain relatively isolated given lessening deep-layer
shear with southward extent into the lower MS Valley/TX.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 042000Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW
YORK STATE...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging winds
and perhaps a tornado or two remain possible across parts of the
Lower Great Lakes and middle/upper Ohio River Valley region this
afternoon through early evening. Other more isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the the Tennessee
Valley, Lower Mississippi Valley, and central/east/south Texas.
...20z Update Great Lakes Region...
A band of thunderstorms ahead of the eastward progressing cold front
will continue across northern OH this afternoon before moving into
western PA and southwest NY this evening. Diurnal steepening of
low-level lapse rates amid fairly strong, but unidirectional flow
aloft will continue to support a risk for damaging gusts. A brief
tornado also remains possible with any rotating elements, especially
near the southern shores of Lake Erie near the stalled warm
front/lake boundary. Have trimmed severe and thunder probabilities
behind the front over IN where the risk has decreased.
...TN Valley to the Southeast and South TX...
Ahead of the southern portions of the cold front, a warm, moist, and
unstable air mass will support widespread thunderstorm activity from
parts of the TN Valley, Southeast and into South TX. In the absence
of steep mid-level lapse rates and stronger vertical shear
(especially with southward extent), storm organization should be
transient and limited. Still, the moist environment and some veering
winds the lowest few km could support an occasional stronger or
briefly rotating storm. Any clustering could support occasional
damaging gusts or small hail with stronger updrafts near the front.
The outlook remains valid with only minor adjustments to the western
extent of thunder and severe probabilities.
..Lyons.. 04/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026/
...Midwest/Lower Michigan to Pennsylvania and Western New York...
An upper trough over the Upper Midwest late this morning will
continue moving northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes through
tonight. Strengthening deep-layer southwesterlies (with 50+ kt
present at 700 mb) will overspread IN/MI toward the Lower Great
Lakes atop a gradually moistening/heating boundary layer along and
north of the Ohio River.
This will occur ahead of a surface low over WI/MI and convectively
reinforced/southeastward-developing cold front that will impact
parts of the Midwest/OH Valley this afternoon. Recent visible
satellite trends showing clearing across much of OH into northwest
PA suggest sufficient heating and modest diurnal destabilization
will support at least some severe potential regionally as
thunderstorms redevelop and intensify this afternoon along/ahead of
the cold front. Given steepening low-lapse rates and enhanced
low/mid-level southwesterly flow, scattered severe/damaging winds
should be the main threat. But, there may also be some potential for
a tornado or two as well, mainly in vicinity of the triple
point/nearby warm front that will extend eastward into central PA.
Overall updraft intensities should decrease by mid to late evening,
owing to stabilizing/nocturnal boundary-layer influences, and the
primary upper trough/low moving northeastward away from the region.
...Tennessee Valley into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Texas...
Showers and occasional thunderstorms remain extensive this morning
from the Mid-South southwestward into northeast TX, as a surface
cold front continues to progress southeastward across these areas.
Even with considerable cloud cover and poor lapse rates aloft ahead
of this ongoing activity, multiple corridors of reinvigorated
convective clusters should develop this afternoon where some cloud
breaks/filtered heating can occur. Downbursts with locally damaging
winds should be the primary severe hazard, but this threat is
expected to remain relatively isolated given lessening deep-layer
shear with southward extent into the lower MS Valley/TX.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Monday across
the Florida Peninsula and over parts of the Desert Southwest, but no
severe threat is forecast.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will persist across the eastern U.S. on Monday. At
the surface, a cold front draped across northern FL will sag
southward. A seasonally warm/moist airmass ahead of the front will
support weak destabilization. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop during the afternoon across the FL
Peninsula. Weak vertical shear and poor lapse rates will preclude
severe thunderstorm potential. Additional isolated weak
thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southwest as an
upper shortwave trough traverses the region.
..Leitman.. 04/04/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Monday across
the Florida Peninsula and over parts of the Desert Southwest, but no
severe threat is forecast.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will persist across the eastern U.S. on Monday. At
the surface, a cold front draped across northern FL will sag
southward. A seasonally warm/moist airmass ahead of the front will
support weak destabilization. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop during the afternoon across the FL
Peninsula. Weak vertical shear and poor lapse rates will preclude
severe thunderstorm potential. Additional isolated weak
thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southwest as an
upper shortwave trough traverses the region.
..Leitman.. 04/04/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
Minor adjustments were made to the Elevated area, resulting in
slight expansion over portions of southeast Colorado and
south-central New Mexico. As previously mentioned, the uncertainty
of cloud cover prevented expansion any farther south. Fuel
conditions across much of the highlighted and surrounding area of
the southern Plains are some of the driest within the CONUS right
now. Possible expansion to include more of southeast New Mexico will
be monitored with future forecast issuances.
..Stearns.. 04/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will be in place across the West on D2/Sunday,
with longwave upper-level troughing across the Great
Lakes/Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will remain in place
across the central Great Plains while a cold front progresses
eastward across the East Coast and Southeast. A second cold front
will simultaneously move southward across the northern Great Plains.
...Portions of the Southern High Plains...
A tightened pressure gradient on the western periphery of the
aforementioned surface high will favor sustained 15-20 mph
south-southeasterly return flow across the southern High Plains.
With no appreciable moisture return and only limited mid/high cloud
cover expected, diurnal heating/mixing are forecast to result in RH
values dropping to 10-20% across much of southern High Plains. This
combination of winds and RH atop dry, receptive fuels should promote
elevated fire weather conditions for at least a few hours Sunday
afternoon. Trends will be monitored for a potential southward
expansion of Elevated highlights; however, uncertainty owing to
greater mid/high cloud cover and more marginal RH values precludes
such an expansion at this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
Minor adjustments were made to the Elevated area, resulting in
slight expansion over portions of southeast Colorado and
south-central New Mexico. As previously mentioned, the uncertainty
of cloud cover prevented expansion any farther south. Fuel
conditions across much of the highlighted and surrounding area of
the southern Plains are some of the driest within the CONUS right
now. Possible expansion to include more of southeast New Mexico will
be monitored with future forecast issuances.
..Stearns.. 04/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will be in place across the West on D2/Sunday,
with longwave upper-level troughing across the Great
Lakes/Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will remain in place
across the central Great Plains while a cold front progresses
eastward across the East Coast and Southeast. A second cold front
will simultaneously move southward across the northern Great Plains.
...Portions of the Southern High Plains...
A tightened pressure gradient on the western periphery of the
aforementioned surface high will favor sustained 15-20 mph
south-southeasterly return flow across the southern High Plains.
With no appreciable moisture return and only limited mid/high cloud
cover expected, diurnal heating/mixing are forecast to result in RH
values dropping to 10-20% across much of southern High Plains. This
combination of winds and RH atop dry, receptive fuels should promote
elevated fire weather conditions for at least a few hours Sunday
afternoon. Trends will be monitored for a potential southward
expansion of Elevated highlights; however, uncertainty owing to
greater mid/high cloud cover and more marginal RH values precludes
such an expansion at this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
MD 0357 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SABINE VALLEY INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0357
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Areas affected...Sabine Valley into lower Mississippi Valley
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 041714Z - 041915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Filtered surface heating of a very moist arimass will
support scattered thunderstorms capable of wind damage this
afternoon. Lack of storm organization should preclude watch
issuance, however.
DISCUSSION...Broken cloud cover is promoting modest surface heating
of a very moist (upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) airmass early
this afternoon. With time, additional heating should allow for
scattered thunderstorm development along and ahead of the cold
front. This region exists on the southern fringe of the stronger
mid-level winds, but will have 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon.
25-35 kts of effective shear would support marginally, transiently
organized storms capable of wind damage. Poor mid-level lapse rates
and a linear mode will limit hail potential. There is lingering,
modestly strong 850 mb winds that will be diminishing through the
afternoon. The tornado threat should be low and conditional in the
short-term and decreasing with time.
..Wendt/Gleason.. 04/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 30979636 31989598 33399367 34279100 34728917 34308836
32229001 30919255 30479412 30549581 30649617 30979636
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
Read more
MD 0358 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO TOWARD LAKE ERIE AND VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0358
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Areas affected...central and northern Ohio toward Lake Erie and
Vicinity
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 041746Z - 042015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop over the next few hours, with
areas of strong to damaging gusts possible. A brief tornado cannot
be ruled out near the warm front.
DISCUSSION...A composite cold front, reinforced by outflow from
ongoing rain, is nearing the IN/OH border, and extending south
across the OH River. Meanwhile, a warm front is moving into extreme
southeast Lower MI, and extending east across Lake Erie and into far
southwestern NY.
Strong heating has already steepened low-level lapse rates across
the warm sector, resulting in strong southerly wind gusts to 30 kt.
As warming persists, the air mass will destabilize further, with
MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg expected.
While deep-layer mean wind fields are substantial with 40-50 kt
speeds common aloft, shear is a bit marginal. Another mitigating
factor is a midlevel subsidence inversion, which is reducing overall
CAPE.
Despite this, the leading north-south outflow boundary will serve as
a focus for renewed development over the next few hours. Additional
storms may form in the warm sector as the air mass becomes uncapped.
The steep low-level lapse rates and 40+ kt mean winds aloft will aid
surface gusts with any of the substantial storms. Low-level shear
near the warm front could favor a brief tornado as the cold front or
individual cells interact, though much of that activity should
quickly cross into cooler air.
..Jewell/Gleason.. 04/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...
LAT...LON 40328193 39728260 39328433 39348470 39848460 40608450
41258449 41748423 42078378 42178268 42418056 42567944
42387912 42087922 41657999 41388038 40328193
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible on
Sunday afternoon from the eastern Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic
coast.
...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas...
An upper trough over the Great Lakes/Midwest region will develop
eastward over the eastern U.S. on Sunday. At the surface, a cold
front will extend south/southwest across the Mid-Atlantic into
central AL at midday. Ahead of the front, a plume of low 60s F
dewpoints will be in place across the eastern Carolinas into
southern NJ. Where stronger heating can occur, weak destabilization
is expected. Enhanced low and midlevel flow (30-40 kt just off the
surface) could support isolated strong to severe wind gusts where
stronger heating and modest destabilization occurs. Overall severe
thunderstorm potential should be tempered by poor lapse rates and
MLCAPE generally less than 750 J/kg.
..Leitman.. 04/04/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 041630Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging winds
and perhaps a tornado or two appear possible across parts of the
Lower Great Lakes and middle/upper Ohio River Valley region this
afternoon through early evening. Other more isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the the Tennessee
Valley, Lower Mississippi Valley, and central/east/south Texas.
...Midwest/Lower Michigan to Pennsylvania and Western New York...
An upper trough over the Upper Midwest late this morning will
continue moving northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes through
tonight. Strengthening deep-layer southwesterlies (with 50+ kt
present at 700 mb) will overspread IN/MI toward the Lower Great
Lakes atop a gradually moistening/heating boundary layer along and
north of the Ohio River.
This will occur ahead of a surface low over WI/MI and convectively
reinforced/southeastward-developing cold front that will impact
parts of the Midwest/OH Valley this afternoon. Recent visible
satellite trends showing clearing across much of OH into northwest
PA suggest sufficient heating and modest diurnal destabilization
will support at least some severe potential regionally as
thunderstorms redevelop and intensify this afternoon along/ahead of
the cold front. Given steepening low-lapse rates and enhanced
low/mid-level southwesterly flow, scattered severe/damaging winds
should be the main threat. But, there may also be some potential for
a tornado or two as well, mainly in vicinity of the triple
point/nearby warm front that will extend eastward into central PA.
Overall updraft intensities should decrease by mid to late evening,
owing to stabilizing/nocturnal boundary-layer influences, and the
primary upper trough/low moving northeastward away from the region.
...Tennessee Valley into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Texas...
Showers and occasional thunderstorms remain extensive this morning
from the Mid-South southwestward into northeast TX, as a surface
cold front continues to progress southeastward across these areas.
Even with considerable cloud cover and poor lapse rates aloft ahead
of this ongoing activity, multiple corridors of reinvigorated
convective clusters should develop this afternoon where some cloud
breaks/filtered heating can occur. Downbursts with locally damaging
winds should be the primary severe hazard, but this threat is
expected to remain relatively isolated given lessening deep-layer
shear with southward extent into the lower MS Valley/TX.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 04/04/2026
Read more
