SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the southern Mid Atlantic
Coast vicinity Sunday, accompanied by at least some risk for
damaging wind gusts.
...Discussion...
Latest model output suggests that a broad, deep occluded surface
cyclone may deepen at least a bit further while migrating
east-northeastward across Quebec during this period. Renewed
cyclogenesis appears possible across the Canadian Maritimes by
Sunday evening, with a trailing cold front advancing offshore of the
northern through middle Atlantic coast by early Monday, while
slowing/stalling across parts of northern Florida.
Pre-frontal boundary-layer destabilization, where deep-layer mean
flow and shear appears sufficient to support convective
organization, is forecast to remain weak, due to generally weak
tropospheric lapse rates. It appears that this may become focused
along lee surface troughing across and east of the Carolina
Piedmont, perhaps as far north as a developing low/frontal wave
across south central Virginia into the southern Delmarva Peninsula
by late Sunday afternoon.
Forcing for ascent, downstream of a short wave impulse progressing
through the base of approaching larger-scale mid-level troughing, is
likely to aid convective development, with sheared, 30-50 kt
south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer contributing
convective organization with potential to produce damaging wind
gusts. A narrow broken squall line may evolve, with perhaps
embedded supercell structures which could also pose the risk for a
tornado or two while spreading toward coastal areas by early Sunday
evening.
..Kerr.. 04/03/2026
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MD 0341 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...WESTERN/NORTHERN MO...EXTREME SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHERN IA...WESTERN IL
Mesoscale Discussion 0341
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern KS...western/northern
MO...extreme southeast NE...southern IA...western IL
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 031826Z - 032030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to severe storm development is expected this
afternoon. Watch issuance is likely.
DISCUSSION...Isolated storm development is underway early this
afternoon in the vicinity of a cold front across
east-central/northeast KS. With mid 60s F dewpoints and temperatures
rising through the 70s F, MLCINH has largely been removed along/east
of the cold front and along/south of a northward-moving warm front
draped from northeast KS into northern MO and west-central IL. Storm
coverage is expected to increase through the afternoon, as a
vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves across the Great
Plains.
Moderate to strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) and effective
shear of 40-50 kt will support organized convection. Storm
development near the cold front may initially evolve into
supercells, with an attendant tornado and large hail threat. An
eventual tendency toward a cluster or linear mode (accompanied by
increasing damaging-wind potential) may occur along the cold front,
due to increasing storm coverage and interaction.
A separate area of supercell potential may evolve along the warm
front from northern MO into west-central IL. Any surface-based
supercell that can persist near the warm-frontal zone could pose a
tornado threat, in addition to large hail and localized
damaging-wind potential.
Issuance of one or more watches is likely this afternoon, in
response to the threats described above.
..Dean/Hart.. 04/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...
TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38929662 40039599 40339569 40929512 40989391 41169105
41258920 40988825 40138827 39708988 39589092 38469332
38159418 38129508 38349703 38929662
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
No changes were made to the previous forecast. Locally elevated
conditions will be possible for a few hours during the afternoon of
Day 2/Saturday over portions of southwest Oklahoma, northwest Texas,
and southeast New Mexico. However, recent accumulating precipitation
over much of Oklahoma and extreme eastern portions of the Texas
Panhandle combined with expected showers and storms over almost all
of the aforementioned area today and tonight will preclude the
introduction of any highlighted areas with this forecast issuance.
The latest forecast trends and observations from the Day 1/Friday
activity will be closely watched over this region.
..Stearns.. 04/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026/
...Synopsis...
A potent mid-level shortwave trough and its associated surface low
will transition northeastward across the Great Lakes region on
D2/Saturday while upper-level ridging builds across the West. A
trailing cold front will progress eastward across portions of the
Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys and southward across southern
Texas, with high pressure building into the Great Plains behind this
front. Cooler temperatures and improving minimum RH values are
expected to preclude widespread fire weather concerns at this time.
...Portions of the Texas Rolling Plains into Southern New Mexico...
Latest high-res guidance suggests that sustained northeasterly to
easterly surface winds around 15 mph along the southern periphery of
the aforementioned surface high may briefly overlap reduced RH
values of 15-20% Saturday afternoon to promote locally elevated fire
weather concerns from the Texas Rolling Plains into southern New
Mexico. Elevated highlights have been withheld at this time due to
uncertainty regarding the duration of overlap between sustained
surface winds of 15+ mph and RH values below 20% as well as the
potential for light precipitation on D1/Friday across Texas. Trends
will continue to be monitored for future outlooks.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...MUCH OF OHIO...SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK...
CORRECTED FOR WORDING AND TYPOS
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms may develop and overspread the lower Great
Lakes vicinity and middle through upper Ohio Valley Saturday
afternoon and evening, accompanied by strong to severe wind gusts
and potential for a couple of tornadoes.
...Discussion...
As mid-level ridging builds further across the British Columbia and
Pacific Northwest vicinity Saturday through Saturday night, models
indicate that several digging downstream short wave troughs across
the Canadian Prairies into the northern U.S. Great Plains may
contribute to the northeastward acceleration of a notable mid-level
low, now slowly turning eastward toward the middle Missouri Valley.
In response to these developments, an initially modest surface
cyclone associated with the lead perturbation is generally forecast
to undergo substantive deepening while occluding across and
northeast of the upper Great Lakes vicinity. A secondary cyclone
may form across the southeastern Michigan through Lake
Huron/Georgian Bay/adjacent Ontario vicinity by Saturday afternoon,
with a trailing cold front continuing to advance east of the
Mississippi Valley and southward through the southern Great Plains,
into the Appalachians/lower Mississippi Valley/northwest Gulf coast
vicinity by early Sunday.
Initially cold, stable air to the north of a preceding front may
remain entrenched across much of New England through this period,
while widespread thunderstorm development today through tonight cuts
off the advection of elevated mixed-layer air and associated steeper
mid-level lapse rates to the east of the Mississippi Valley. At the
same time, the impact of lingering pre-frontal convective
development, associated surface outflow and northeastward/eastward
advecting remnant cloud cover on subsequent destabilization within a
potentially expanding warm sector across the mid/upper Ohio Valley
and lower Great Lakes region remains unclear.
...Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes region...
Conditionally, a relatively moist (60+ F surface dew points) air
mass within the evolving warm sector is likely to become conducive
to organized severe thunderstorm development, including supercells,
Saturday afternoon and evening. However, stronger mid/upper support
for ascent may remain displaced to the northwest of much of the
destabilizing warm sector, with strongest forcing for convection
confined to the front, or, perhaps more likely, a conglomerate
pre-frontal outflow.
Although the signal in model output is not particularly strong, it
appears possible that convection may begin re-intensifying along the
leading outflow boundary while overspreading southeastern Lower
Michigan into the lower Ohio Valley by early afternoon. As this
occurs, strong lower/mid-tropospheric shear beneath south to
southwesterly wind fields strengthening to 40-60+ kt in the 850-500
mb layer will be more than sufficient to support organization and
increasing risk for severe wind gusts and tornadoes. This threat
likely will persist as activity overspreads much of the remainder of
the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region into Saturday evening.
...Parts of the Mid South into northwestern Gulf Coast...
Weaker mid/upper forcing for ascent, deep-layer mean wind field and
shear suggest more limited severe weather potential than further
north. However, somewhat better boundary-layer moisture, including
mid 60s F+ dew points, may contribute moderate CAPE ahead of
southeastward advancing convective outflow. It appears possible
that this could support re-intensification of convection that could
become accompanied by sporadic damaging downbursts late Saturday
afternoon into evening.
..Kerr.. 04/03/2026
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 031630Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND
WESTERN ILLINOIS....
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected to evolve into an extensive line this
evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas, with the primary
threats of large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes are also
possible in any supercells that can form ahead of the line over
parts of Iowa, Missouri, and central Illinois.
...MO/IA/IL...
Latest surface analysis shows a low over northeast KS. This low
will track northeastward across southern IA today, with the
associated warm front lifting northward into northern IL. The air
mass in the warm sector of the low will be relatively moist and
unstable with dewpoints in the lower 60s and afternoon MLCAPE values
of 2000 J/kg. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the
surface low in IA, and more widely scattered storms eastward along
the warm front. A few supercells are possible across this region,
with a concern for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds in the
most intense cells.
...MO/KS/OK/TX...
An extensive line of thunderstorms is expected to form along the
cold front this afternoon from western MO into southeast KS and much
of OK. Ample low-level moisture and CAPE will be present ahead of
the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for
rotating/bowing storm structures. Large hail and damaging winds
appear to be the main concern, but a tornado or two are also
possible.
..Hart/Wendt.. 04/03/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 031630Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND
WESTERN ILLINOIS....
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected to evolve into an extensive line this
evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas, with the primary
threats of large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes are also
possible in any supercells that can form ahead of the line over
parts of Iowa, Missouri, and central Illinois.
...MO/IA/IL...
Latest surface analysis shows a low over northeast KS. This low
will track northeastward across southern IA today, with the
associated warm front lifting northward into northern IL. The air
mass in the warm sector of the low will be relatively moist and
unstable with dewpoints in the lower 60s and afternoon MLCAPE values
of 2000 J/kg. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the
surface low in IA, and more widely scattered storms eastward along
the warm front. A few supercells are possible across this region,
with a concern for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds in the
most intense cells.
...MO/KS/OK/TX...
An extensive line of thunderstorms is expected to form along the
cold front this afternoon from western MO into southeast KS and much
of OK. Ample low-level moisture and CAPE will be present ahead of
the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for
rotating/bowing storm structures. Large hail and damaging winds
appear to be the main concern, but a tornado or two are also
possible.
..Hart/Wendt.. 04/03/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 031700Z - 041200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO THE EXTREME WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO
WESTERN KANSAS...
The Critical areas remain on track from the previous forecast. The
Elevated area was slightly adjusted to include additional portions
of the central Plains where the latest forecast guidance indicates
criteria will be met this afternoon. In agreement with local Red
Flags, fuels guidance also shows that recent rainfall over northeast
Colorado and south-central Nebraska has had little impact on fine
dead moisture going into today. Additionally, areas near the
south-central New Mexico mountains, where fuels remain exceptionally
dry, cannot be ruled out of elevated conditions behind the frontal
passage this evening according to the latest forecast guidance.
..Stearns.. 04/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level, shortwave trough currently analyzed across the northern
Rockies will eject northeastward across the central/northern Great
Plains today. At the surface, an associated surface cyclone will
shift from the central Great Plains into the Midwest with a trailing
cold front progressing southward across the central and southern
High Plains through the period.
...Portions of the Southern High Plains...
High pressure across the Intermountain West coupled with low
pressure across the central Plains and surface troughing in the lee
of the southern Rockies will favor strong westerly, downslope winds
of 20-25 mph (with the potential for occasional gusts of 30-40 mph)
along the I40 corridor in central/eastern New Mexico. With minimum
RH values forecast around 10-15% and receptive fuels across the
region, this will support critical fire weather conditions for at
least a few hours this afternoon.
A southward progressing cold front will then bring a shift to
northerly winds later this evening and into tonight. Latest guidance
suggests that RH will be slow to recover behind this front, with
spotty 15-25 mph sustained north-northwesterly winds overlapping RH
below 20%. This may bring an extended and/or additional period of
elevated fire weather concerns to portions of eastern and southern
New Mexico and West Texas into tonight as the front progresses
southward. The greatest potential for these conditions is expected
in the lee of the Sacramento/Guadelupe Mountains in eastern New
Mexico/West Texas and within the Jornada del Muerto and Tularosa
Valley in southern New Mexico where terrain effects may yield local
wind enhancements.
...Portions of the Central High Plains...
In the wake of a cold frontal passage, westerly downslope flow will
develop as the aforementioned mid-level trough begins to eject
northeastward across the central Great Plains. Sustained 20-25 mph
northwesterly winds (locally higher) are forecast to overlap very
low RH of 10-15% across portions of the central High Plains,
supporting critical fire weather concerns. The best overlap of these
conditions is forecast to the southeast of Royal Gorge in Colorado
(where high-res guidance depicts stronger winds owing to terrain
effects) and into western Kansas. While RH is forecast to remain
more marginal (15-20%) farther north in the lee of the Front Range,
sustained winds around 25 mph (with the potential for periodic gusts
to 35-45 mph) amid very dry fuels supported the inclusion of this
area in the Critical highlights. Elevated fire weather concerns are
forecast across adjacent areas of the central High Plains where
northwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph are expected to overlap low
RH of 10-20%.
...Southern Nevada into the Low/High Desert of California...
A locally strong Santa Ana event will peak this afternoon, with
sustained north-northeasterly winds of 20-30 mph (gusts to 50 mph)
and very low RH values of 10-15% traversing southern Nevada, the
Low/High Desert of California, and the wind-prone areas surrounding
the Los Angeles metro. While elevated live fuel moisture is expected
to preclude widespread concerns, these conditions may support
locally elevated fire weather conditions for areas with drier fine
fuels.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 031700Z - 041200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO THE EXTREME WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO
WESTERN KANSAS...
The Critical areas remain on track from the previous forecast. The
Elevated area was slightly adjusted to include additional portions
of the central Plains where the latest forecast guidance indicates
criteria will be met this afternoon. In agreement with local Red
Flags, fuels guidance also shows that recent rainfall over northeast
Colorado and south-central Nebraska has had little impact on fine
dead moisture going into today. Additionally, areas near the
south-central New Mexico mountains, where fuels remain exceptionally
dry, cannot be ruled out of elevated conditions behind the frontal
passage this evening according to the latest forecast guidance.
..Stearns.. 04/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level, shortwave trough currently analyzed across the northern
Rockies will eject northeastward across the central/northern Great
Plains today. At the surface, an associated surface cyclone will
shift from the central Great Plains into the Midwest with a trailing
cold front progressing southward across the central and southern
High Plains through the period.
...Portions of the Southern High Plains...
High pressure across the Intermountain West coupled with low
pressure across the central Plains and surface troughing in the lee
of the southern Rockies will favor strong westerly, downslope winds
of 20-25 mph (with the potential for occasional gusts of 30-40 mph)
along the I40 corridor in central/eastern New Mexico. With minimum
RH values forecast around 10-15% and receptive fuels across the
region, this will support critical fire weather conditions for at
least a few hours this afternoon.
A southward progressing cold front will then bring a shift to
northerly winds later this evening and into tonight. Latest guidance
suggests that RH will be slow to recover behind this front, with
spotty 15-25 mph sustained north-northwesterly winds overlapping RH
below 20%. This may bring an extended and/or additional period of
elevated fire weather concerns to portions of eastern and southern
New Mexico and West Texas into tonight as the front progresses
southward. The greatest potential for these conditions is expected
in the lee of the Sacramento/Guadelupe Mountains in eastern New
Mexico/West Texas and within the Jornada del Muerto and Tularosa
Valley in southern New Mexico where terrain effects may yield local
wind enhancements.
...Portions of the Central High Plains...
In the wake of a cold frontal passage, westerly downslope flow will
develop as the aforementioned mid-level trough begins to eject
northeastward across the central Great Plains. Sustained 20-25 mph
northwesterly winds (locally higher) are forecast to overlap very
low RH of 10-15% across portions of the central High Plains,
supporting critical fire weather concerns. The best overlap of these
conditions is forecast to the southeast of Royal Gorge in Colorado
(where high-res guidance depicts stronger winds owing to terrain
effects) and into western Kansas. While RH is forecast to remain
more marginal (15-20%) farther north in the lee of the Front Range,
sustained winds around 25 mph (with the potential for periodic gusts
to 35-45 mph) amid very dry fuels supported the inclusion of this
area in the Critical highlights. Elevated fire weather concerns are
forecast across adjacent areas of the central High Plains where
northwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph are expected to overlap low
RH of 10-20%.
...Southern Nevada into the Low/High Desert of California...
A locally strong Santa Ana event will peak this afternoon, with
sustained north-northeasterly winds of 20-30 mph (gusts to 50 mph)
and very low RH values of 10-15% traversing southern Nevada, the
Low/High Desert of California, and the wind-prone areas surrounding
the Los Angeles metro. While elevated live fuel moisture is expected
to preclude widespread concerns, these conditions may support
locally elevated fire weather conditions for areas with drier fine
fuels.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 031300Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA INTO WEST/NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes and isolated very large hail are possible late this
afternoon and evening across northern Missouri into southern Iowa
and north-central Illinois with any sustained supercells that
develop. Storms are otherwise expected to evolve into an extensive
line by Friday evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas,
with the primary threats of large hail and damaging winds.
...Northern Missouri/southern Iowa/north-central Illinois...
The shortwave trough emerging from the north-central High Plains
this morning will spread east-northeastward toward the Upper Midwest
through early Saturday. This will be accompanied by a strengthening
(70+ kt) belt of cyclonically curved mid/high-level westerlies. A
surface low across the south-central Plains will transition
northeastward toward the Iowa/Illinois border vicinity tonight,
while a warm front shifts northward from northern Missouri into Iowa
and across northern portions of Illinois/Indiana, where low/middle
60s F dewpoints will become common across the Midwest near and south
of the warm front.
Within the warm sector, residually steep mid-level lapse rates and
modest insolation will contribute to MLCAPE values up to 2000 J/kg
(and MUCAPE values approach 3000 J/kg). Deep-layer shear will be
sufficient for supercells along and south of the warm front and east
of the Pacific cold front/dryline. While the likelihood/extent of
semi-discrete supercellular development remains a bit uncertain, the
main potential for such will increase during the afternoon near the
triple point around the Kansas/Missouri/Iowa border vicinity and
eastward, potentially as far east into western/north-central
Illinois in vicinity of the northward-shifting warm front.
Semi-discrete development would offer tornado/very large hail
potential, as well as a possible multi-round scenario of severe
storms in some of this corridor via a more prevalent line of storms
during the evening, with a damaging wind risk and some continued
tornado potential as the low-level restrengthens.
...Northern Indiana to western portions of Pennsylvania/New York...
Relatively strong westerlies atop the frontal zone, which will be
more southeast-progressive as a cold front with eastward extent,
will support at least isolated severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon into evening, including a few supercells regionally.
...Southeast Kansas/Southwest Missouri to Northwest Texas...
Thunderstorms will develop southward from northern Missouri into
Oklahoma during the afternoon as the Pacific cold front/dryline
advances southeastward into an increasingly unstable airmass. At the
same time, additional thunderstorms are likely to develop across
Northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma in association with a subtle
perturbation within the subtropical jet. Forecast wind fields
indicate low-level flow will be weaker here than areas farther north
and east. The combination of this wind field and the widespread
nature of the convection would lend itself to large hail and
damaging winds as the main severe hazards, although a tornado could
occur with any discrete storm or along the leading edge of any
organized linear segments.
...Southwest Texas...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected by late afternoon and early
evening in vicinity of the dry line and near some of the
mountains/higher terrain. Wind fields will support supercells
capable of producing large hail and localized severe-caliber winds.
..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/03/2026
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6...
From Monday to Wednesday, a relatively dry and cool airmass is
forecast to settle in across the continental U.S. For this reason,
thunderstorm potential will be low over most of the nation.
...Thursday/Day 7 to Friday/Day 8...
A large area of surface high pressure is forecast to move eastward
in the western Atlantic by Thursday, as moisture return takes place
into the south-central states. Scattered thunderstorm development
will be possible during the day from the southern and central Plains
eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. A chance for
thunderstorms will continue into Friday over the same general area
as moisture advection continues. An isolated severe threat will be
possible each afternoon and evening, but the confidence in the
spatial distribution regarding any potential threat is low at this
time.
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6...
From Monday to Wednesday, a relatively dry and cool airmass is
forecast to settle in across the continental U.S. For this reason,
thunderstorm potential will be low over most of the nation.
...Thursday/Day 7 to Friday/Day 8...
A large area of surface high pressure is forecast to move eastward
in the western Atlantic by Thursday, as moisture return takes place
into the south-central states. Scattered thunderstorm development
will be possible during the day from the southern and central Plains
eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. A chance for
thunderstorms will continue into Friday over the same general area
as moisture advection continues. An isolated severe threat will be
possible each afternoon and evening, but the confidence in the
spatial distribution regarding any potential threat is low at this
time.
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA...
CORRECTED FOR CORRECTED CATEGORICAL GRAPHIC
...SUMMARY...
Storms are expected to evolve into an extensive line by Friday
evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas, with the primary
threats of large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes and
isolated very large hail will be possible from northern Missouri
into southern Iowa with any sustained supercells.
A midlevel trough, emanating from a previous TPV, will move across
the northern US today and tonight. This feature will maintain a
modest surface cyclone that will progress northeastward from central
Kansas to southern Wisconsin by Saturday morning. As the surface low
lifts northeast, a west-east orientate warm front will push
northward toward Lower Michigan.
... Northern Missouri and Southern Iowa ...
As the surface cyclone lifts northeast in response to increasing
pressure falls in advance of the midlevel trough, southerly winds
will draw low-level moisture northward, with low-to-mid 60Fs
dewpoints possible along and south of the aforementioned warm front.
Residual steep mid-level lapse rates and modest insolation will
contribute to MLCAPE values up to 2000 J/kg (and MUCAPE values
approach 3000 J/kg). Despite the low-level jet weakening through the
day, deep-layer shear will be sufficient for supercells along and
south of the warm front and east of the Pacific cold front/dryline.
However, given persistent warm-air advection/isentropic ascent
associated with the advancing warm front, concerns abound regarding
the number of storms, storm interactions, and an overall messy storm
mode evolution.
If a more discrete mode emerges, the overall kinematic wind field
would support sustained supercells and an increased tornado threat
along both the Pacific Front/dryline and the northward moving warm
front. Very large hail would also be possible. If a more linear mode
emerges, the primary severe hazard would focus more on strong winds
and a QLCS tornado threat. Of note, even with a more linear mode,
uncertainty in the coverage of potential strong convective winds is
low owing to a weakening low-level jet and storm interactions. The
Level 3/Enhanced was kept at this time, but the need for a
wind-driven Level 3/Enhanced will be revisited in subsequent
forecasts.
... Central Illinois east into Ohio and north into Lower Michigan
...
Thunderstorms will be possible along the northward moving warm front
during the afternoon on Friday. Although there is uncertainty
regarding the number/coverage of storms, the overall thermodynamic
and kinematic fields would support the potential for hail and wind
along and north of the warm front. Across the western portions of
this area, a brief tornado threat would exist as any discrete
supercells traverse through the warm frontal zone.
... Southeast Kansas/Southwest Missouri southwest toward Northwest
Texas...
Thunderstorms will develop southward from northern Missouri into
Oklahoma during the afternoon as the Pacific cold front/dryline
pushes east into an increasingly unstable airmass. At the same time,
additional thunderstorms are likely to develop across Northwest
Texas and southwest Oklahoma in association with a subtle
perturbation within the subtropical jet. Forecast wind fields
indicate low-level flow will be weaker here than areas farther north
and east, and have pronounced weakness in the 3-6 km AGL range. The
combination of this wind field and the widespread nature of the
convection would lend itself to large hail and damaging winds as the
main severe hazards, although a tornado cannot be ruled out with any
discrete storm or along the leading edge of any organized linear
segments.
... Southwest Texas ...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon/evening
along the higher terrain and a surface dryline. Wind fields will
support supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging
winds. However uncertainty regarding overall storm coverage
precludes a categorical upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk.
..Marsh/Chalmers.. 04/03/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA...
CORRECTED FOR CORRECTED CATEGORICAL GRAPHIC
...SUMMARY...
Storms are expected to evolve into an extensive line by Friday
evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas, with the primary
threats of large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes and
isolated very large hail will be possible from northern Missouri
into southern Iowa with any sustained supercells.
A midlevel trough, emanating from a previous TPV, will move across
the northern US today and tonight. This feature will maintain a
modest surface cyclone that will progress northeastward from central
Kansas to southern Wisconsin by Saturday morning. As the surface low
lifts northeast, a west-east orientate warm front will push
northward toward Lower Michigan.
... Northern Missouri and Southern Iowa ...
As the surface cyclone lifts northeast in response to increasing
pressure falls in advance of the midlevel trough, southerly winds
will draw low-level moisture northward, with low-to-mid 60Fs
dewpoints possible along and south of the aforementioned warm front.
Residual steep mid-level lapse rates and modest insolation will
contribute to MLCAPE values up to 2000 J/kg (and MUCAPE values
approach 3000 J/kg). Despite the low-level jet weakening through the
day, deep-layer shear will be sufficient for supercells along and
south of the warm front and east of the Pacific cold front/dryline.
However, given persistent warm-air advection/isentropic ascent
associated with the advancing warm front, concerns abound regarding
the number of storms, storm interactions, and an overall messy storm
mode evolution.
If a more discrete mode emerges, the overall kinematic wind field
would support sustained supercells and an increased tornado threat
along both the Pacific Front/dryline and the northward moving warm
front. Very large hail would also be possible. If a more linear mode
emerges, the primary severe hazard would focus more on strong winds
and a QLCS tornado threat. Of note, even with a more linear mode,
uncertainty in the coverage of potential strong convective winds is
low owing to a weakening low-level jet and storm interactions. The
Level 3/Enhanced was kept at this time, but the need for a
wind-driven Level 3/Enhanced will be revisited in subsequent
forecasts.
... Central Illinois east into Ohio and north into Lower Michigan
...
Thunderstorms will be possible along the northward moving warm front
during the afternoon on Friday. Although there is uncertainty
regarding the number/coverage of storms, the overall thermodynamic
and kinematic fields would support the potential for hail and wind
along and north of the warm front. Across the western portions of
this area, a brief tornado threat would exist as any discrete
supercells traverse through the warm frontal zone.
... Southeast Kansas/Southwest Missouri southwest toward Northwest
Texas...
Thunderstorms will develop southward from northern Missouri into
Oklahoma during the afternoon as the Pacific cold front/dryline
pushes east into an increasingly unstable airmass. At the same time,
additional thunderstorms are likely to develop across Northwest
Texas and southwest Oklahoma in association with a subtle
perturbation within the subtropical jet. Forecast wind fields
indicate low-level flow will be weaker here than areas farther north
and east, and have pronounced weakness in the 3-6 km AGL range. The
combination of this wind field and the widespread nature of the
convection would lend itself to large hail and damaging winds as the
main severe hazards, although a tornado cannot be ruled out with any
discrete storm or along the leading edge of any organized linear
segments.
... Southwest Texas ...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon/evening
along the higher terrain and a surface dryline. Wind fields will
support supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging
winds. However uncertainty regarding overall storm coverage
precludes a categorical upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk.
..Marsh/Chalmers.. 04/03/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A potent mid-level shortwave trough and its associated surface low
will transition northeastward across the Great Lakes region on
D2/Saturday while upper-level ridging builds across the West. A
trailing cold front will progress eastward across portions of the
Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys and southward across southern
Texas, with high pressure building into the Great Plains behind this
front. Cooler temperatures and improving minimum RH values are
expected to preclude widespread fire weather concerns at this time.
...Portions of the Texas Rolling Plains into Southern New Mexico...
Latest high-res guidance suggests that sustained northeasterly to
easterly surface winds around 15 mph along the southern periphery of
the aforementioned surface high may briefly overlap reduced RH
values of 15-20% Saturday afternoon to promote locally elevated fire
weather concerns from the Texas Rolling Plains into southern New
Mexico. Elevated highlights have been withheld at this time due to
uncertainty regarding the duration of overlap between sustained
surface winds of 15+ mph and RH values below 20% as well as the
potential for light precipitation on D1/Friday across Texas. Trends
will continue to be monitored for future outlooks.
..Chalmers.. 04/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND FAR SOUTHERN
MARYLAND...
...SUMMARY...
A marginal wind-damage threat is expected to develop on Sunday from
eastern North Carolina into far southeast Virginia and far southern
Maryland.
...Eastern North Carolina/Far Southeast Virginia/Far Southern
Maryland...
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys on Sunday, as a cold front advances southeastward through
the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Ahead of the front, surface
dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 60s F. Weak instability will
develop ahead of the front during the day, with thunderstorms
forming and moving eastward toward the Atlantic Coast. A marginal
severe threat may develop across parts of eastern North Carolina,
far southeast Virginia and far southern Maryland, where deep-layer
shear may be strong enough for multicells with isolated severe
gusts. The threat should be maximized in the mid to late afternoon
when low-level lapse rates will be steepest.
..Broyles.. 04/03/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO THE EXTREME WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO
WESTERN KANSAS...
...Synopsis...
A mid-level, shortwave trough currently analyzed across the northern
Rockies will eject northeastward across the central/northern Great
Plains today. At the surface, an associated surface cyclone will
shift from the central Great Plains into the Midwest with a trailing
cold front progressing southward across the central and southern
High Plains through the period.
...Portions of the Southern High Plains...
High pressure across the Intermountain West coupled with low
pressure across the central Plains and surface troughing in the lee
of the southern Rockies will favor strong westerly, downslope winds
of 20-25 mph (with the potential for occasional gusts of 30-40 mph)
along the I40 corridor in central/eastern New Mexico. With minimum
RH values forecast around 10-15% and receptive fuels across the
region, this will support critical fire weather conditions for at
least a few hours this afternoon.
A southward progressing cold front will then bring a shift to
northerly winds later this evening and into tonight. Latest guidance
suggests that RH will be slow to recover behind this front, with
spotty 15-25 mph sustained north-northwesterly winds overlapping RH
below 20%. This may bring an extended and/or additional period of
elevated fire weather concerns to portions of eastern and southern
New Mexico and West Texas into tonight as the front progresses
southward. The greatest potential for these conditions is expected
in the lee of the Sacramento/Guadelupe Mountains in eastern New
Mexico/West Texas and within the Jornada del Muerto and Tularosa
Valley in southern New Mexico where terrain effects may yield local
wind enhancements.
...Portions of the Central High Plains...
In the wake of a cold frontal passage, westerly downslope flow will
develop as the aforementioned mid-level trough begins to eject
northeastward across the central Great Plains. Sustained 20-25 mph
northwesterly winds (locally higher) are forecast to overlap very
low RH of 10-15% across portions of the central High Plains,
supporting critical fire weather concerns. The best overlap of these
conditions is forecast to the southeast of Royal Gorge in Colorado
(where high-res guidance depicts stronger winds owing to terrain
effects) and into western Kansas. While RH is forecast to remain
more marginal (15-20%) farther north in the lee of the Front Range,
sustained winds around 25 mph (with the potential for periodic gusts
to 35-45 mph) amid very dry fuels supported the inclusion of this
area in the Critical highlights. Elevated fire weather concerns are
forecast across adjacent areas of the central High Plains where
northwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph are expected to overlap low
RH of 10-20%.
...Southern Nevada into the Low/High Desert of California...
A locally strong Santa Ana event will peak this afternoon, with
sustained north-northeasterly winds of 20-30 mph (gusts to 50 mph)
and very low RH values of 10-15% traversing southern Nevada, the
Low/High Desert of California, and the wind-prone areas surrounding
the Los Angeles metro. While elevated live fuel moisture is expected
to preclude widespread concerns, these conditions may support
locally elevated fire weather conditions for areas with drier fine
fuels.
..Chalmers.. 04/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible
Saturday afternoon and evening in parts of the Ohio Valley.
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will also be
possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley.
...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central
U.S. on Saturday, as an associated 60 to 75 knot mid-level jet
translates eastward through the Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold
front will advance eastward through the Ohio Valley. Ahead of the
front, surface dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 60s F.
Instability will increase along the moist axis during the day, with
SBCAPE likely peaking in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. Thunderstorm
development will take place ahead of the front in the afternoon as
low-level convergence gradually becomes focused. A line of strong to
severe storms is expected to develop and move eastward across the
Ohio Valley in the late afternoon and early evening. Additional
strong to severe storms will be possible in the central Appalachians
during the late afternoon.
A gradual increase in deep-layer shear is expected across the Ohio
Valley during the afternoon, as the upper-level trough approaches
from the west. In central Ohio, forecast soundings increase 0-6 km
shear from 25 knots at midday into the 35 to 40 knot range by late
afternoon. In addition, 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to increase
to around 7.5 C/km. This environment should be favorable for
organized multicell line segments with severe wind gusts. The
greatest wind-damage threat is forecast from Ohio southwestward into
far northern Kentucky during the late afternoon and early evening,
as the right rear quadrant of the mid-level jet passes through. This
will help strengthen large-scale ascent. Further east into the
central Appalachians, large-scale ascent will be weaker, but a
conditional threat for severe storms will exist as low-level lapse
rates become steep in the late afternoon. A marginal severe threat
may also develop southwestward into the mid Mississippi Valley,
where instability and shear will be sufficient for isolated severe
gusts.
...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley...
The southern extent of an upper-level trough will move eastward
across southern and central Plains on Saturday. At the surface, a
cold front will advance southeastward through the Ark-La-Tex and
Texas Coastal Plains. As surface temperatures warm during the day
and low-level convergence increases near the front, scattered to
numerous thunderstorms will develop. A large complex of storms will
move east-southeastward toward the western Gulf Coast during the
late afternoon and early evening. Over much of the moist sector,
SBCAPE is forecast in the 1000 to 1500 j/kg range with 0-6 km shear
of 25 to 30 knots. This should be enough for isolated severe wind
gusts. Hail could also occur.
..Broyles.. 04/03/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible
Saturday afternoon and evening in parts of the Ohio Valley.
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will also be
possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley.
...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central
U.S. on Saturday, as an associated 60 to 75 knot mid-level jet
translates eastward through the Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold
front will advance eastward through the Ohio Valley. Ahead of the
front, surface dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 60s F.
Instability will increase along the moist axis during the day, with
SBCAPE likely peaking in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. Thunderstorm
development will take place ahead of the front in the afternoon as
low-level convergence gradually becomes focused. A line of strong to
severe storms is expected to develop and move eastward across the
Ohio Valley in the late afternoon and early evening. Additional
strong to severe storms will be possible in the central Appalachians
during the late afternoon.
A gradual increase in deep-layer shear is expected across the Ohio
Valley during the afternoon, as the upper-level trough approaches
from the west. In central Ohio, forecast soundings increase 0-6 km
shear from 25 knots at midday into the 35 to 40 knot range by late
afternoon. In addition, 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to increase
to around 7.5 C/km. This environment should be favorable for
organized multicell line segments with severe wind gusts. The
greatest wind-damage threat is forecast from Ohio southwestward into
far northern Kentucky during the late afternoon and early evening,
as the right rear quadrant of the mid-level jet passes through. This
will help strengthen large-scale ascent. Further east into the
central Appalachians, large-scale ascent will be weaker, but a
conditional threat for severe storms will exist as low-level lapse
rates become steep in the late afternoon. A marginal severe threat
may also develop southwestward into the mid Mississippi Valley,
where instability and shear will be sufficient for isolated severe
gusts.
...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley...
The southern extent of an upper-level trough will move eastward
across southern and central Plains on Saturday. At the surface, a
cold front will advance southeastward through the Ark-La-Tex and
Texas Coastal Plains. As surface temperatures warm during the day
and low-level convergence increases near the front, scattered to
numerous thunderstorms will develop. A large complex of storms will
move east-southeastward toward the western Gulf Coast during the
late afternoon and early evening. Over much of the moist sector,
SBCAPE is forecast in the 1000 to 1500 j/kg range with 0-6 km shear
of 25 to 30 knots. This should be enough for isolated severe wind
gusts. Hail could also occur.
..Broyles.. 04/03/2026
Read more
