Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AN SOUTHERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Storms are expected to evolve into an extensive line by Friday evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas, with the primary threats of large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes and isolated very large hail will be possible from northern Missouri into southern Iowa with any sustained supercells. A midlevel trough, emanating from a previous TPV, will move across the northern US today and tonight. This feature will maintain a modest surface cyclone that will progress northeastward from central Kansas to southern Wisconsin by Saturday morning. As the surface low lifts northeast, a west-east orientate warm front will push northward toward Lower Michigan. ... Northern Missouri and Southern Iowa ... As the surface cyclone lifts northeast in response to increasing pressure falls in advance of the midlevel trough, southerly winds will draw low-level moisture northward, with low-to-mid 60Fs dewpoints possible along and south of the aforementioned warm front. Residual steep mid-level lapse rates and modest insolation will contribute to MLCAPE values up to 2000 J/kg (and MUCAPE values approach 3000 J/kg). Despite the low-level jet weakening through the day, deep-layer shear will be sufficient for supercells along and south of the warm front and east of the Pacific cold front/dryline. However, given persistent warm-air advection/isentropic ascent associated with the advancing warm front, concerns abound regarding the number of storms, storm interactions, and an overall messy storm mode evolution. If a more discrete mode emerges, the overall kinematic wind field would support sustained supercells and an increased tornado threat along both the Pacific Front/dryline and the northward moving warm front. Very large hail would also be possible. If a more linear mode emerges, the primary severe hazard would focus more on strong winds and a QLCS tornado threat. Of note, even with a more linear mode, uncertainty in the coverage of potential strong convective winds is low owing to a weakening low-level jet and storm interactions. The Level 3/Enhanced was kept at this time, but the need for a wind-driven Level 3/Enhanced will be revisited in subsequent forecasts. ... Central Illinois east into Ohio and north into Lower Michigan ... Thunderstorms will be possible along the northward moving warm front during the afternoon on Friday. Although there is uncertainty regarding the number/coverage of storms, the overall thermodynamic and kinematic fields would support the potential for hail and wind along and north of the warm front. Across the western portions of this area, a brief tornado threat would exist as any discrete supercells traverse through the warm frontal zone. ... Southeast Kansas/Southwest Missouri southwest toward Northwest Texas... Thunderstorms will develop southward from northern Missouri into Oklahoma during the afternoon as the Pacific cold front/dryline pushes east into an increasingly unstable airmass. At the same time, additional thunderstorms are likely to develop across Northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma in association with a subtle perturbation within the subtropical jet. Forecast wind fields indicate low-level flow will be weaker here than areas farther north and east, and have pronounced weakness in the 3-6 km AGL range. The combination of this wind field and the widespread nature of the convection would lend itself to large hail and damaging winds as the main severe hazards, although a tornado cannot be ruled out with any discrete storm or along the leading edge of any organized linear segments. ... Southwest Texas ... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon/evening along the higher terrain and a surface dryline. Wind fields will support supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. However uncertainty regarding overall storm coverage precludes a categorical upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk. ..Marsh/Chalmers.. 04/03/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Ongoing severe thunderstorms across the Great Lakes this evening will remain capable of producing damaging thunderstorm winds, a couple of tornadoes, and some hail into the overnight hours. ... 01Z Update ... A vigorous, negatively tilted trough continues to lift northeast across the Upper Great Lakes this evening. Ahead of this wave, strong ascent is supporting multiple clusters/bands of severe convection across the Great Lakes -- one currently across Indiana and Michigan within the cyclone's warm-conveyor belt and another across Illinois and Wisconsin along the combined Pacific front and dryline. Despite the loss of diurnal heating, strong large-scale ascent and low-level convergence along the front/dryline will support thunderstorms into the overnight. Although the overall intensity of the thunderstorms will gradually decrease with time, the strength of the low-level wind fields will support a continued wind threat into Lower Michigan overnight, with a modest QLCS-type tornado threat. ..Marsh.. 04/03/2026 Read more

MD 0338 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EAST-CENTRAL MO INTO CENTRAL IL
Mesoscale Discussion 0338 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0539 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026 Areas affected...east-central MO into central IL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 022239Z - 030045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Severe potential will increase/persist into the evening downstream from WW 89 from east-central Missouri into central Illinois. Timing and coverage of storm activity remains uncertain. Trends being monitored for possible watch issuance. DISCUSSION...A few storms have developed and weakened north of I-70 across east-central MO over the past hour. This activity is developing near the surface wind shift/dryline as a dryslot aloft overspreads the region. This is likely suppressing further development/intensification at this time. However, CAMs and WoFS guidance suggest more robust development should occur by 00z near the MS River and into central IL. This airmass has largely recovered from earlier day showers and thunderstorms where clearing has occurred this afternoon. Temperatures have rebounded into the low to mid 70s and dewpoints remain in the 60-64 F range, resulting in a corridor of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Effective shear magnitudes near 40 kt are noted with stronger, backed low-level winds evident in surface observations across IL, supporting supercell wind profiles. If isolated to scattered storm development can occur and become sustained across this area, damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two will be possible. Timing and convective evolution remains uncertain and trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance sometime in the next few hours. ..Leitman/Smith.. 04/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 39309157 40848878 40848845 40688819 40148806 39028857 38548923 38199005 38109067 38219124 38499175 39309157 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0339 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 90... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0339 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0703 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026 Areas affected...south-central Lower Michigan Concerning...Tornado Watch 90... Valid 030003Z - 030100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 90 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for an isolated tornado or two continues across the eastern portions of Tornado Watch 90. DISCUSSION...A series of supercells have been observed across portions of southwestern/south-central Lower Michigan over the last 1-2 hours. While these storms have quickly moved north in the vicinity of a surface warm front due to deep-layer flow orientation, periods of enhanced rotation have been noted with these cells in close proximity to the surface boundary. Latest mesoanalysis depicts weak buoyancy (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) along and south of this boundary. Despite this weak instability, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs and 200-300 m2/s2 0-500 m SRH (per the IWX VWP) will continue to support supercell structures capable of an isolated tornado or two for another hour or so, especially in close proximity to the surface warm front. With time, increasing low-level stability owing to nocturnal cooling should act to reduce the severe threat. ..Chalmers.. 04/03/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 42538536 42588515 42478474 42338454 42128453 41978468 41938491 41958523 42108551 42328548 42538536 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0089 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 89 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW UIN TO 5 N BRL TO 25 N MLI TO 20 SE LNR. ..LEITMAN..04/02/26 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...LSX...LOT...ILX...EAX...ARX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 89 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-007-009-011-015-017-037-057-063-067-071-073-089-093-095- 099-103-109-111-123-125-129-131-137-141-143-149-155-169-171-175- 177-179-187-195-201-203-030040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BOONE BROWN BUREAU CARROLL CASS DE KALB FULTON GRUNDY HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY KANE KENDALL KNOX LA SALLE LEE MCDONOUGH MCHENRY MARSHALL MASON MENARD MERCER MORGAN OGLE PEORIA PIKE PUTNAM SCHUYLER SCOTT STARK STEPHENSON TAZEWELL WARREN WHITESIDE WINNEBAGO WOODFORD WIC021-025-027-039-045-055-059-079-089-101-105-117-127-131-133- 030040- Read more

WW 0090 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 90 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..CHALMERS..04/02/26 ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 90 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC039-091-141-030040- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ELKHART LA PORTE ST. JOSEPH MIC005-015-021-025-027-045-077-149-159-030040- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGAN BARRY BERRIEN CALHOUN CASS EATON KALAMAZOO ST. JOSEPH VAN BUREN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 89 TORNADO IA IL MO WI 021845Z - 030100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 89 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Iowa Northwest Illinois Northern Missouri Southern Wisconsin * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening across the watch area and track rapidly northeastward. A few supercells capable of damaging winds and tornadoes are possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Janesville WI to 55 miles south southeast of Kirksville MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Hart Read more

WW 90 TORNADO IN MI 022230Z - 030300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 90 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 630 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Indiana Southwest Lower Michigan * Effective this Thursday evening from 630 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A few severe thunderstorms are possible this evening across the Watch area near a warm frontal zone. A couple of the stronger storms will probably evolve into supercells. A couple of tornadoes are possible along with damaging gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles southwest of Benton Harbor MI to 35 miles east of Kalamazoo MI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 89... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 300. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Smith Read more

WW 0091 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 86 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0323 ..WEINMAN..04/01/26 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...TSA...LUB...AMA...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 86 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-019-033-035-077-191-020040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CHAUTAUQUA COMANCHE COWLEY HARPER SUMNER OKC003-009-011-015-017-019-027-031-033-039-043-045-047-049-051- 053-055-057-059-065-067-071-073-075-081-083-085-087-093-099-103- 109-113-117-119-125-129-137-141-149-151-153-020040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY GRANT GREER HARMON HARPER JACKSON JEFFERSON KAY KINGFISHER KIOWA Read more

WW 91 SEVERE TSTM IN 022345Z - 030400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 91 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 745 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Northern Indiana * Effective this Thursday night from 745 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...An intensifying band of thunderstorms will continue to move east-northeast across the Watch area this evening. Smaller-scale line segments and bows will aid in focusing the more intense portions of the squall line and associated wind-damage risk. A brief tornado or two is also possible, especially with any mature mesovortex. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north of Fort Wayne IN to 35 miles southwest of Indianapolis IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 89...WW 90... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 300. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Smith Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... An upper level trough is expected to traverse the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region on D3/Saturday - D4/Sunday. A broad ridge of high pressure will build across much of the southwestern U.S. bringing warm temperatures and mostly dry conditions through the middle of next week. Recent guidance hints that a weak disturbance embedded within the ridge may track across parts of the Southwest on Day 4/Sunday. Ample south/southeasterly flow continuing through D5/Monday combined with elevated moisture return may encourage isolated convection across southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Guidance will be monitored closely for the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities in future outlooks as confidence increases. Locally elevated fire weather conditions may arise in the central and southern High Plains throughout the forecast period as dry conditions prevail resulting from the prominent upper-level pattern. Ensemble guidance suggests a pattern change late next week as a trough approaches western CONUS, which could bring dry and breezy conditions back to the central/southern High Plains where dry fuels exist. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0333 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0333 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026 Areas affected...much of central and eastern Upper Michigan...adjacent northeastern Wisconsin and portions of northern Lower Michigan Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 021734Z - 022130Z SUMMARY...Light to moderate freezing rain is likely to continue to develop and overspread the region through 5-7 PM EDT, with primary accrual on elevated surfaces and vegetation. DISCUSSION...As a still sub-1000 mb surface cyclone continues to migrate east-northeastward into and through portions of southern/eastern Iowa this afternoon, a fairly sharp warm frontal zone to its east-northeast is forecast to continue to surge northward across Wisconsin and Michigan. This is likely to occur near the nose of a 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb jet, with strong lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection and frontogenetic forcing maintaining light and developing embedded bands of moderate precipitation. While surface temperatures near or just below 30F are likely to also be maintained at least into late afternoon or early evening, model forecast soundings indicate notable warming above freezing in a deepening layer above the surface, northward through much of central and eastern Upper Michigan by 21-23Z. As this occurs, precipitation rates may support at least occasional hourly freezing rain accrual in excess of .10 inches, perhaps up to .25 inches. ..Kerr.. 04/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB... LAT...LON 45178681 44948770 45388892 46308828 46828705 46538410 45548285 44678265 44718363 45378519 45178681 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes remain probable across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin this afternoon and evening. Additionally, damaging thunderstorm winds will be possible from eastern Iowa northeast into Michigan. ...20z Update IA, IL, MO and southern WI... Rapid air mass modification is underway to the south of a warm front lifting northward across the western Great Lakes and upper Midwest. Clearing beneath the advancing mid-level dry slot may allow temperatures to warm into the low 70s, with surface dewpoints near 60 F. This will support weak buoyancy amid very strong shear profiles (0-1 km SRH >300 m2/s2) from observed VADs and regional RAOBs. Scattered thunderstorms and supercells ongoing over northern MO and southern IA should mature and present a severe hazard over much of the ENH area as they spread northeastward through this evening. A few tornadoes (some strong and fast moving), hail and damaging gusts are expected. Additional storms may develop within the warm conveyor belt farther east across IL this afternoon/evening. Upscale growth into one or more clusters with damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes is the primary concern. The main change with the 20z update was to trim thunderstorm and severe probabilities to the west of the advancing cold front. See the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 04/02/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026/ ...IA/IL/MO/WI... Morning water vapor imagery shows a strong shortwave trough over northeast KS, with an associated mid-level jet and dry-slot rotating around the base of the trough into western MO. A deep surface low currently south of OMA will track northeastward across IA this afternoon, with a tight gradient of low-level moisture and instability along the track of the low. Very strong low-level shear and sufficient CAPE in the warm sector will pose a risk of fast-moving supercells capable of damaging winds, tornadoes (possibly strong), and hail. The area of greatest concern is over eastern IA into northern IL and far southern WI. Perhaps the biggest forecast uncertainty is the widespread cloud cover and limited diurnal destabilization, but the approaching dry slot may compensate by mid-afternoon and allow a period of afternoon heating. The coverage of storms with southward extent is uncertain across eastern MO and central/southern IL. Recent CAM solutions continue to show only widely scattered discrete development across this corridor. However, given the forecast of strong low-level shear and favorable synoptic forcing, those storms that do form would pose a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. ...Eastern IL/IN/Lower MI... Strong southerly low-level winds will maintain 60s dewpoints across eastern IL/western IN, and result in the warm front lifting northward into southern Lower MI by this evening. This will provide a favorable environment for a few severe storms capable of damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes remain probable across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin this afternoon and evening. Additionally, damaging thunderstorm winds will be possible from eastern Iowa northeast into Michigan. ...20z Update IA, IL, MO and southern WI... Rapid air mass modification is underway to the south of a warm front lifting northward across the western Great Lakes and upper Midwest. Clearing beneath the advancing mid-level dry slot may allow temperatures to warm into the low 70s, with surface dewpoints near 60 F. This will support weak buoyancy amid very strong shear profiles (0-1 km SRH >300 m2/s2) from observed VADs and regional RAOBs. Scattered thunderstorms and supercells ongoing over northern MO and southern IA should mature and present a severe hazard over much of the ENH area as they spread northeastward through this evening. A few tornadoes (some strong and fast moving), hail and damaging gusts are expected. Additional storms may develop within the warm conveyor belt farther east across IL this afternoon/evening. Upscale growth into one or more clusters with damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes is the primary concern. The main change with the 20z update was to trim thunderstorm and severe probabilities to the west of the advancing cold front. See the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 04/02/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026/ ...IA/IL/MO/WI... Morning water vapor imagery shows a strong shortwave trough over northeast KS, with an associated mid-level jet and dry-slot rotating around the base of the trough into western MO. A deep surface low currently south of OMA will track northeastward across IA this afternoon, with a tight gradient of low-level moisture and instability along the track of the low. Very strong low-level shear and sufficient CAPE in the warm sector will pose a risk of fast-moving supercells capable of damaging winds, tornadoes (possibly strong), and hail. The area of greatest concern is over eastern IA into northern IL and far southern WI. Perhaps the biggest forecast uncertainty is the widespread cloud cover and limited diurnal destabilization, but the approaching dry slot may compensate by mid-afternoon and allow a period of afternoon heating. The coverage of storms with southward extent is uncertain across eastern MO and central/southern IL. Recent CAM solutions continue to show only widely scattered discrete development across this corridor. However, given the forecast of strong low-level shear and favorable synoptic forcing, those storms that do form would pose a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. ...Eastern IL/IN/Lower MI... Strong southerly low-level winds will maintain 60s dewpoints across eastern IL/western IN, and result in the warm front lifting northward into southern Lower MI by this evening. This will provide a favorable environment for a few severe storms capable of damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional wind damage will be possible with storms along and in advance of a cold front across the upper Ohio Valley and from southeast Texas into the Mid-South. ...Upper OH Valley and vicinity... A surface cold front will move eastward from the MS Valley into the OH Valley, to the south of a cyclone progressing into ON/QC and in advance of an associated midlevel trough. The typical uncertainties surround lingering clouds/rain on the west edge of the outlook area, but a gradual increase in low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks will support weak buoyancy in advance of the cold front Saturday afternoon/evening. Likewise, an increase in low-midlevel flow with the approaching midlevel trough will support the potential for some wind damage with bands of convection along/ahead of the front. The main threat will be during the afternoon/evening, with a gradual weakening of convection expected overnight. ...Southeast TX to the Mid-South... Widespread convection is expected along a cold front late Friday into early Saturday, and this front will continue southeastward through the day. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s and surface heating in cloud breaks ahead of the remnant morning convection will contribute to moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) in the warm sector. Wind profiles will be a little more favorable for sustained storms across the northern part of the MRGL area, closer to the southern fringe of the stronger midlevel westerly flow. The forecast pattern best supports isolated wind damage as the primary concern given the modest vertical shear and midlevel lapse rates, though the marginal nature of the scenario and likely influences of morning convection suggest additional refinements are likely in later updates. ..Thompson.. 04/02/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional wind damage will be possible with storms along and in advance of a cold front across the upper Ohio Valley and from southeast Texas into the Mid-South. ...Upper OH Valley and vicinity... A surface cold front will move eastward from the MS Valley into the OH Valley, to the south of a cyclone progressing into ON/QC and in advance of an associated midlevel trough. The typical uncertainties surround lingering clouds/rain on the west edge of the outlook area, but a gradual increase in low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks will support weak buoyancy in advance of the cold front Saturday afternoon/evening. Likewise, an increase in low-midlevel flow with the approaching midlevel trough will support the potential for some wind damage with bands of convection along/ahead of the front. The main threat will be during the afternoon/evening, with a gradual weakening of convection expected overnight. ...Southeast TX to the Mid-South... Widespread convection is expected along a cold front late Friday into early Saturday, and this front will continue southeastward through the day. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s and surface heating in cloud breaks ahead of the remnant morning convection will contribute to moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) in the warm sector. Wind profiles will be a little more favorable for sustained storms across the northern part of the MRGL area, closer to the southern fringe of the stronger midlevel westerly flow. The forecast pattern best supports isolated wind damage as the primary concern given the modest vertical shear and midlevel lapse rates, though the marginal nature of the scenario and likely influences of morning convection suggest additional refinements are likely in later updates. ..Thompson.. 04/02/2026 Read more

WW 0089 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 89 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..04/02/26 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...LSX...LOT...ILX...EAX...ARX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 89 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-007-009-011-015-017-037-057-063-067-071-073-085-089-093- 095-099-103-109-111-123-125-129-131-137-141-143-149-155-161-169- 171-175-177-179-187-195-201-203-022040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BOONE BROWN BUREAU CARROLL CASS DE KALB FULTON GRUNDY HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS KANE KENDALL KNOX LA SALLE LEE MCDONOUGH MCHENRY MARSHALL MASON MENARD MERCER MORGAN OGLE PEORIA PIKE PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND SCHUYLER SCOTT STARK STEPHENSON TAZEWELL WARREN WHITESIDE WINNEBAGO WOODFORD IAC007-011-019-031-039-045-051-053-055-057-061-087-095-097-099- 101-103-105-107-111-113-115-117-123-125-127-135-139-153-157-163- 171-177-179-181-183-185-022040- Read more

WW 89 TORNADO IA IL MO WI 021845Z - 030100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 89 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Iowa Northwest Illinois Northern Missouri Southern Wisconsin * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening across the watch area and track rapidly northeastward. A few supercells capable of damaging winds and tornadoes are possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Janesville WI to 55 miles south southeast of Kirksville MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Hart Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Afternoon Update... Portions of the northern and eastern Elevated risk were trimmed from areas that saw appreciable rainfall in the last 48 hours. A dry cold front will push through the central/southern High Plains D2/Friday morning and afternoon, transporting a breezy post-frontal airmass southward. Behind the front, spotty 15-25 mph sustained northwesterly winds may overlap with RH below 20 percent. Given uncertainty in the intersection of strongest winds and low RH, critical highlights have been withheld, though localized critical fire weather conditions may occur in east-central CO and northwest KS. Farther south, a few hours of strong westerly downslope winds of 20+ mph (gusts up to 40 mph) amid 10-15 percent RH are expected in portions of central/eastern CO, which supports the continuation of Critical fire weather highlights. Existing guidance ambivalence on timing of the cold front arrival and RH reduction behind the front enhances uncertainty in fire environment duration. However, due to the risk of significant wildfire spread with the passage of the cold front, these weather conditions should be closely monitored for both new ignitions and any ongoing wildfires. ...Southern Nevada into the Low/High Desert of California... A locally strong Santa Ana wind event will peak D2/Friday afternoon as north-northeasterly sustained winds of 20-30 mph (gusts up to 50 mph) and very low RH of 10-15 percent traverse southern NV, the Low/High Desert of CA, and the wind-prone areas surrounding the Los Angeles Metro. These conditions support locally elevated fire weather concerns for areas with drier fine fuels. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/02/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0229 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026/ ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level, shortwave trough will eject northeastward across the central/northern Great Plains on D2/Friday, while an attendant surface low develops northeastward into the Midwest. A cold front associated with this surface low will progress southward across the central and southern High Plains. ...Central/eastern New Mexico... High pressure across the Intermountain West coupled with the previously mentioned surface low across the central Great Plains will yield a tightened pressure gradient across much of the southern Rockies, favoring a dry, downslope flow regime. This downslope flow is forecast to be strongest in the lee of the Sandia Manzano Mountains and is expected to support critical fire weather conditions across portions of central/eastern New Mexico, with sustained westerly surface winds of 20-25 mph forecast to overlap very low RH of around 10-15% and receptive fuels. Westerly winds of 15-20 mph and very low RH of 10-20% will promote elevated fire weather concerns across adjacent areas of the southern High Plains. The aforementioned cold front will pass through the region late in the afternoon, bringing an abrupt shift to northerly winds with only a marginal increase in RH expected. These weather conditions should be monitored closely with any new ignitions or ongoing wildfires as it could be problematic for fire spread. ...Central High Plains... Sustained northwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph amid very low RH of 10-20% and receptive fuels are expected to support elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns across portions of the central High Plains Friday afternoon as downslope flow couples with a dry, post-frontal air mass. Uncertainty regarding the duration of overlap between sustained surface winds of 20+ mph and RH values below 15% precludes the addition of Critical highlights at this time, but this potential will continue to be monitored. ...Southern Nevada into the Low/High Desert of California... A tightened pressure gradient between surface high pressure across the Intermountain West and low pressure in the vicinity of the Gulf of California will favor sustained northerly/northeasterly winds of 20-30 mph amid very low RH of 10-15% (locally lower). While elevated live fuel moisture is expected to preclude widespread fire weather concerns, this wind/RH combination may support localized wildfire spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Apr 2 17:59:02 UTC 2026.