MD 0332 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN MO...SOUTHERN/EASTERN IA...NORTHERN IL...EXTREME SOUTHWEST WI
Mesoscale Discussion 0332
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Areas affected...Parts of northern MO...southern/eastern
IA...northern IL...extreme southwest WI
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 021728Z - 022000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms with a tornado risk may develop this
afternoon. Eventual Tornado Watch issuance is likely, though timing
is uncertain.
DISCUSSION...A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving
across the lower MO Valley early this afternoon. A 998 mb surface
low is located near the southwest IA/northwest MO border, with a
cold front trailing south/southwest into far southeast NE and
eastern KS. A warm front currently extends east-southeast of the low
into northern MO, then bends east-northeast from northeast MO into
central/northern IL. Thunderstorms have developed along the cold
front into northwest MO/far northeast KS, with gradually increasing
cumulus noted within the warm sector in advance of the cold front.
The surface low is forecast to move east-northeastward through the
afternoon, in conjunction with the ejecting shortwave trough.
Clearing associated with the midlevel dry slot and strong low-level
flow (40-60 kt in the lowest 2 km per regional VWPs) will allow the
warm front to quickly move northward in advance of the surface low,
with a destabilizing warm sector expected to develop into parts of
southern/eastern IA and northern IL by mid/late afternoon.
MLCAPE increasing to 500-1000 J/kg (locally greater where stronger
heating occurs) and moderate to strong deep-layer shear will provide
a conditionally favorable environment for severe storms within the
warm sector this afternoon. However, given the relatively modest
buoyancy, potential for storms to mature remains somewhat uncertain.
If any robust updrafts can be sustained, then strong low-level
shear/SRH will support tornado potential, especially near the track
of the surface low. Localized severe gusts and isolated hail will
also be possible, due to the strong low-level flow and
supercell-favorable wind profiles. Eventual Tornado Watch issuance
is likely this afternoon, though timing remains somewhat uncertain.
..Dean/Hart.. 04/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...
LAT...LON 40709476 41489346 42259169 42599085 42648913 42048870
41468889 40858994 40189097 39599377 39819450 40709476
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
Storms are expected to evolve into an extensive line by Friday
evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas, with the primary
threats of large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes and
isolated very large hail will be possible from northern Missouri
into southern Iowa with any sustained supercells.
...Northern MO/southern IA area...
A surface cyclone will progress northeastward from northeast KS to
southern IA by Friday evening, and then continue to southern WI by
early Saturday, in advance of a midlevel trough crossing NE/SD
during the day and IA/MN overnight. Lingering steep midlevel lapse
rates, boundary-layer dewpoints increasing into the 60s along and
south of a warm front, and surface heating in cloud breaks will
contribute to MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be
sufficient for supercells in the warm sector east-southeast of the
cyclone track, but there are concerns about a mixed/messy convective
mode evolution. In a conditional sense, any sustained supercells
will pose a threat for tornadoes and isolated very large hail (2+
inches in diameter). All hazards will be modulated by the actual
mode evolution, with more wind potential where a mode linear mode
dominates. Have opted to maintain the ENH risk area, but confidence
is low in the forecast details.
...Ozarks to northwest TX...
Farther southwest, convection is expected to become rather
widespread by Friday evening from the Ozarks across OK into north TX
along and just ahead of a surface cold front. Weaknesses in
low-midlevel flow are noted in forecast hodographs, which in
combination with expected upscale growth along the front both cast
doubt on the potential for sustained supercells. The more probable
hazards across this area will be occasional large hail and wind
damage Friday afternoon into early Friday night.
...Southwest TX...
Isolated storm development will be possible Friday afternoon/evening
along and east of the dryline and higher terrain, generally from the
Trans Pecos to the Rio Grande. Isolated large hail/severe gusts
will be possible in an environment sufficient for supercell
structures.
..Thompson.. 04/02/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
Storms are expected to evolve into an extensive line by Friday
evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas, with the primary
threats of large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes and
isolated very large hail will be possible from northern Missouri
into southern Iowa with any sustained supercells.
...Northern MO/southern IA area...
A surface cyclone will progress northeastward from northeast KS to
southern IA by Friday evening, and then continue to southern WI by
early Saturday, in advance of a midlevel trough crossing NE/SD
during the day and IA/MN overnight. Lingering steep midlevel lapse
rates, boundary-layer dewpoints increasing into the 60s along and
south of a warm front, and surface heating in cloud breaks will
contribute to MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be
sufficient for supercells in the warm sector east-southeast of the
cyclone track, but there are concerns about a mixed/messy convective
mode evolution. In a conditional sense, any sustained supercells
will pose a threat for tornadoes and isolated very large hail (2+
inches in diameter). All hazards will be modulated by the actual
mode evolution, with more wind potential where a mode linear mode
dominates. Have opted to maintain the ENH risk area, but confidence
is low in the forecast details.
...Ozarks to northwest TX...
Farther southwest, convection is expected to become rather
widespread by Friday evening from the Ozarks across OK into north TX
along and just ahead of a surface cold front. Weaknesses in
low-midlevel flow are noted in forecast hodographs, which in
combination with expected upscale growth along the front both cast
doubt on the potential for sustained supercells. The more probable
hazards across this area will be occasional large hail and wind
damage Friday afternoon into early Friday night.
...Southwest TX...
Isolated storm development will be possible Friday afternoon/evening
along and east of the dryline and higher terrain, generally from the
Trans Pecos to the Rio Grande. Isolated large hail/severe gusts
will be possible in an environment sufficient for supercell
structures.
..Thompson.. 04/02/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Valid 021630Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN....
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes appear
probable across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and
southern Wisconsin this afternoon. Additionally, damaging
thunderstorm winds will be possible from eastern Iowa northeast into
Michigan.
...IA/IL/MO/WI...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a strong shortwave trough over
northeast KS, with an associated mid-level jet and dry-slot rotating
around the base of the trough into western MO. A deep surface low
currently south of OMA will track northeastward across IA this
afternoon, with a tight gradient of low-level moisture and
instability along the track of the low. Very strong low-level shear
and sufficient CAPE in the warm sector will pose a risk of
fast-moving supercells capable of damaging winds, tornadoes
(possibly strong), and hail. The area of greatest concern is over
eastern IA into northern IL and far southern WI. Perhaps the
biggest forecast uncertainty is the widespread cloud cover and
limited diurnal destabilization, but the approaching dry slot may
compensate by mid-afternoon and allow a period of afternoon heating.
The coverage of storms with southward extent is uncertain across
eastern MO and central/southern IL. Recent CAM solutions continue
to show only widely scattered discrete development across this
corridor. However, given the forecast of strong low-level shear and
favorable synoptic forcing, those storms that do form would pose a
risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes.
...Eastern IL/IN/Lower MI...
Strong southerly low-level winds will maintain 60s dewpoints across
eastern IL/western IN, and result in the warm front lifting
northward into southern Lower MI by this evening. This will provide
a favorable environment for a few severe storms capable of damaging
winds and perhaps a few tornadoes.
..Hart/Kerr.. 04/02/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Valid 021630Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN....
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes appear
probable across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and
southern Wisconsin this afternoon. Additionally, damaging
thunderstorm winds will be possible from eastern Iowa northeast into
Michigan.
...IA/IL/MO/WI...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a strong shortwave trough over
northeast KS, with an associated mid-level jet and dry-slot rotating
around the base of the trough into western MO. A deep surface low
currently south of OMA will track northeastward across IA this
afternoon, with a tight gradient of low-level moisture and
instability along the track of the low. Very strong low-level shear
and sufficient CAPE in the warm sector will pose a risk of
fast-moving supercells capable of damaging winds, tornadoes
(possibly strong), and hail. The area of greatest concern is over
eastern IA into northern IL and far southern WI. Perhaps the
biggest forecast uncertainty is the widespread cloud cover and
limited diurnal destabilization, but the approaching dry slot may
compensate by mid-afternoon and allow a period of afternoon heating.
The coverage of storms with southward extent is uncertain across
eastern MO and central/southern IL. Recent CAM solutions continue
to show only widely scattered discrete development across this
corridor. However, given the forecast of strong low-level shear and
favorable synoptic forcing, those storms that do form would pose a
risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes.
...Eastern IL/IN/Lower MI...
Strong southerly low-level winds will maintain 60s dewpoints across
eastern IL/western IN, and result in the warm front lifting
northward into southern Lower MI by this evening. This will provide
a favorable environment for a few severe storms capable of damaging
winds and perhaps a few tornadoes.
..Hart/Kerr.. 04/02/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Valid 021700Z - 031200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...
...Morning Update...
Parts of eastern CO and western KS experienced good overnight RH
recoveries, though will quickly dry once again out this afternoon
under peak heating and clear skies. In east-central NM, sustained
westerly winds of 20-25 mph (gusts 30+) are already being measured
this morning. As the surface low develops east of the Rockies,
combined surface lee troughing and gradient flow will support
southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph and coincident RH drops
below 20 percent across much of the Elevated risk area. A confined
region of Critical fire weather is expected in southeastern CO into
the OK/TX Panhandles where RH will drop below 15 percent as
sustained westerly veering to southerly winds increase to 20-30 mph
(gusts 35+) atop very dry fuels. See the previous discussion for
more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level, shortwave trough will impinge on the central Rockies
today, resulting in the development of a surface low across the
central Great Plains. Modest westerly, mid-level flow will support a
downslope regime across the southern/central Rockies. Coupled with
gradient flow, this will promote dry and windy conditions supportive
of wildfire spread across portions of the southern/central High
Plains.
...Central/southern High Plains...
By afternoon peak heating, the combination of downslope and gradient
flow is expected to support 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly
surface winds from northeastern New Mexico into the western
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, southeastern Colorado, and far
southwestern Kansas. With dry fuels across the region and RH values
forecast to fall to 10-15%, this is expected to support at least a
few hours of critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. Brief
periods of critical conditions are also possible farther
south/southwest in the lee of both the Guadalupe Mountains and the
Black Range in New Mexico; however, lower confidence in an extended
duration of overlap between wind/RH criteria as well as increasing
high cloud cover throughout the day precludes the addition of
Critical highlights at this time.
Sustained southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph overlapping minimum RH
values of 10-20% will promote elevated fire weather concerns across
adjacent areas of the southern/central High Plains. Portions of the
northern and eastern edges of the Elevated highlights were trimmed
from areas that saw more appreciable rainfall accumulations today.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Valid 021700Z - 031200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...
...Morning Update...
Parts of eastern CO and western KS experienced good overnight RH
recoveries, though will quickly dry once again out this afternoon
under peak heating and clear skies. In east-central NM, sustained
westerly winds of 20-25 mph (gusts 30+) are already being measured
this morning. As the surface low develops east of the Rockies,
combined surface lee troughing and gradient flow will support
southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph and coincident RH drops
below 20 percent across much of the Elevated risk area. A confined
region of Critical fire weather is expected in southeastern CO into
the OK/TX Panhandles where RH will drop below 15 percent as
sustained westerly veering to southerly winds increase to 20-30 mph
(gusts 35+) atop very dry fuels. See the previous discussion for
more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level, shortwave trough will impinge on the central Rockies
today, resulting in the development of a surface low across the
central Great Plains. Modest westerly, mid-level flow will support a
downslope regime across the southern/central Rockies. Coupled with
gradient flow, this will promote dry and windy conditions supportive
of wildfire spread across portions of the southern/central High
Plains.
...Central/southern High Plains...
By afternoon peak heating, the combination of downslope and gradient
flow is expected to support 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly
surface winds from northeastern New Mexico into the western
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, southeastern Colorado, and far
southwestern Kansas. With dry fuels across the region and RH values
forecast to fall to 10-15%, this is expected to support at least a
few hours of critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. Brief
periods of critical conditions are also possible farther
south/southwest in the lee of both the Guadalupe Mountains and the
Black Range in New Mexico; however, lower confidence in an extended
duration of overlap between wind/RH criteria as well as increasing
high cloud cover throughout the day precludes the addition of
Critical highlights at this time.
Sustained southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph overlapping minimum RH
values of 10-20% will promote elevated fire weather concerns across
adjacent areas of the southern/central High Plains. Portions of the
northern and eastern edges of the Elevated highlights were trimmed
from areas that saw more appreciable rainfall accumulations today.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
MD 0331 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0331
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0727 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Areas affected...central and northeast Wisconsin
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 021227Z - 021530Z
SUMMARY...Freezing rain will continue this morning across portions
of central and northeast Wisconsin.
DISCUSSION...Moderate to heavy freezing rain continues across
central and northeast Wisconsin this morning. Several ASOS/AWOS
sites have measured around 0.25" of ice accretion in the past 6
hours with 1 hour totals up to 0.1". Strengthening low-level
east-northeasterly flow should maintain below freezing surface
temperatures across this region this morning. Given the upstream
radar mosaic, expect similar ice accretion rates for at least a few
more hours, especially across northeast Wisconsin where temperatures
remain in the upper 20s and the heaviest precipitation should last
longer.
..Bentley.. 04/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX...
LAT...LON 43768770 43718840 43948930 44359020 44649043 45029017
45568974 45848945 46008905 45998853 45968817 45878785
45638771 45418761 45378718 45038705 43768770
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Valid 021300Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN
IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes appear
probable across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and
southern Wisconsin this afternoon. Additionally, damaging
thunderstorm winds will be possible from eastern Iowa northeast into
Michigan.
...Synopsis...
Early morning satellite and radar imagery show an extensive warm
conveyor, with embedded showers and thunderstorms, extending from
the southern Plains into the Upper Midwest, with some westward
branching noted over the Mid MO Valley. This warm conveyor is
associated with shortwave trough currently progressing through the
central Plains. Recent surface analysis places a surface low just
ahead of this wave over central KS, with a warm front extending
eastward from the low into the middle OH Valley and a dryline
extending south-southwestward from this low through the TX Trans
Pecos.
Expectation is for this shortwave to eject quickly northeastward
throughout the day, maintaining a negative tilt as it progresses
through the Mid MO Valley and Upper Midwest before ending the period
over northeastern Ontario. The associated surface low will move
quickly northeastward as well, progressing across southern and
eastern IA and southern WI before occluding over upper MI tonight.
Warm front attendant to this low will move northward as well,
bringing low 60s dewpoints into eastern IA, northern IL, and
southern WI before a cold front moves through. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of the cold front over
much of the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys, with the highest potential
for severe thunderstorms from eastern Iowa, northern IL, and far
southern WI.
...Northern MO/Southern IA across southern WI/northern IL into Lower
MI...
Extensive area of showers and thunderstorms is currently ongoing
from central TX into the Upper Midwest, within the warm conveyor
mentioned in the synopsis. Moderate to strong southerly low-level
flow exists within this warm sector. Progression of the negatively
tilted shortwave and associated surface low mentioned in the
synopsis will lead to a strengthening of this low-level flow, with
attendant moisture advection into more of the Mid MS Valley. Some
eastward displacement of the warm conveyor is anticipated, leaving
the potential for airmass destabilization ahead of the surface low
and cold front. This is supported by most of the guidance, which
depicts a corridor of surface-based buoyancy and little to no
convective inhibition from eastern IA/northern IL into central/east
TX by the early afternoon.
Best forcing for ascent within this corridor will be over the Upper
Midwest and Mid MS Valley, particularly from southern/eastern IA
into northern IL/southern WI, as both the shortwave and surface low
move through the region. The strongest vertical shear will be over
this region as well, supporting the potential for supercells with
the initial, more cellular development. Very strong low-level shear
supports a heightened tornado potential with any supercells,
including the possibility of strong (EF2+) tornadoes. Given the
linear forcing along the approaching cold front, a transition to a
more linear storm mode is anticipated, although there is some
uncertainty to how fast this transition occurs. The strength of the
low-level flow supports a continued risk for tornadoes within any
convective lines, but the primary hazard once any lines develop will
become strong gusts. Kinematic fields are strong enough to support
60 to 80 mph gusts. Additionally, despite weakening buoyancy, strong
ascent and robust kinematic fields support the potential for
damaging gusts across much of Lower MI later tonight.
...Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys into the Mid-South...
As previously mentioned, showers and thunderstorms are currently
ongoing from central TX into the Upper Midwest, within the extensive
warm conveyor mentioned in the synopsis. There is some potential for
reintensification of these showers and thunderstorms late this
afternoon/early evening from central/eastern IL into the northeast
AR/MO Bootheel, supported my modest destabilization and increasing
ascent. Storm structures will likely be somewhat shallow, but strong
flow will still support the potential for damaging gusts within any
bowing line segments. A brief tornado is possible as well.
Airmass destabilization is also anticipated west of this warm
conveyor, but ahead of the cold front, from central IL into
central/southern MO and northern AR. Much of this area will be
displaced south and west of the departing shortwave trough and
surface low, limiting large-scale ascent. However, some modest
ascent is possible along a weak lagging upper trough, which could be
enough to promote additional development. If updrafts can be
maintained, parameters support the potential for strong to severe
storms capable. Large hail is the primary risk, but a
low-probability tornado risk exists as well.
..Mosier/Bentley.. 04/02/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Valid 021300Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN
IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes appear
probable across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and
southern Wisconsin this afternoon. Additionally, damaging
thunderstorm winds will be possible from eastern Iowa northeast into
Michigan.
...Synopsis...
Early morning satellite and radar imagery show an extensive warm
conveyor, with embedded showers and thunderstorms, extending from
the southern Plains into the Upper Midwest, with some westward
branching noted over the Mid MO Valley. This warm conveyor is
associated with shortwave trough currently progressing through the
central Plains. Recent surface analysis places a surface low just
ahead of this wave over central KS, with a warm front extending
eastward from the low into the middle OH Valley and a dryline
extending south-southwestward from this low through the TX Trans
Pecos.
Expectation is for this shortwave to eject quickly northeastward
throughout the day, maintaining a negative tilt as it progresses
through the Mid MO Valley and Upper Midwest before ending the period
over northeastern Ontario. The associated surface low will move
quickly northeastward as well, progressing across southern and
eastern IA and southern WI before occluding over upper MI tonight.
Warm front attendant to this low will move northward as well,
bringing low 60s dewpoints into eastern IA, northern IL, and
southern WI before a cold front moves through. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of the cold front over
much of the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys, with the highest potential
for severe thunderstorms from eastern Iowa, northern IL, and far
southern WI.
...Northern MO/Southern IA across southern WI/northern IL into Lower
MI...
Extensive area of showers and thunderstorms is currently ongoing
from central TX into the Upper Midwest, within the warm conveyor
mentioned in the synopsis. Moderate to strong southerly low-level
flow exists within this warm sector. Progression of the negatively
tilted shortwave and associated surface low mentioned in the
synopsis will lead to a strengthening of this low-level flow, with
attendant moisture advection into more of the Mid MS Valley. Some
eastward displacement of the warm conveyor is anticipated, leaving
the potential for airmass destabilization ahead of the surface low
and cold front. This is supported by most of the guidance, which
depicts a corridor of surface-based buoyancy and little to no
convective inhibition from eastern IA/northern IL into central/east
TX by the early afternoon.
Best forcing for ascent within this corridor will be over the Upper
Midwest and Mid MS Valley, particularly from southern/eastern IA
into northern IL/southern WI, as both the shortwave and surface low
move through the region. The strongest vertical shear will be over
this region as well, supporting the potential for supercells with
the initial, more cellular development. Very strong low-level shear
supports a heightened tornado potential with any supercells,
including the possibility of strong (EF2+) tornadoes. Given the
linear forcing along the approaching cold front, a transition to a
more linear storm mode is anticipated, although there is some
uncertainty to how fast this transition occurs. The strength of the
low-level flow supports a continued risk for tornadoes within any
convective lines, but the primary hazard once any lines develop will
become strong gusts. Kinematic fields are strong enough to support
60 to 80 mph gusts. Additionally, despite weakening buoyancy, strong
ascent and robust kinematic fields support the potential for
damaging gusts across much of Lower MI later tonight.
...Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys into the Mid-South...
As previously mentioned, showers and thunderstorms are currently
ongoing from central TX into the Upper Midwest, within the extensive
warm conveyor mentioned in the synopsis. There is some potential for
reintensification of these showers and thunderstorms late this
afternoon/early evening from central/eastern IL into the northeast
AR/MO Bootheel, supported my modest destabilization and increasing
ascent. Storm structures will likely be somewhat shallow, but strong
flow will still support the potential for damaging gusts within any
bowing line segments. A brief tornado is possible as well.
Airmass destabilization is also anticipated west of this warm
conveyor, but ahead of the cold front, from central IL into
central/southern MO and northern AR. Much of this area will be
displaced south and west of the departing shortwave trough and
surface low, limiting large-scale ascent. However, some modest
ascent is possible along a weak lagging upper trough, which could be
enough to promote additional development. If updrafts can be
maintained, parameters support the potential for strong to severe
storms capable. Large hail is the primary risk, but a
low-probability tornado risk exists as well.
..Mosier/Bentley.. 04/02/2026
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MD 0330 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
Mesoscale Discussion 0330
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Areas affected...east-central Minnesota across central Wisconsin.
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 020855Z - 021200Z
SUMMARY...An area of freezing rain will expand this morning from
eastern Minnesota to central Wisconsin.
DISCUSSION...Several observation sites are recording moderate ice
accretion this morning from eastern Minnesota to central Wisconsin.
A strengthening pressure gradient between the strong high pressure
across Quebec and the developing cyclone across the Plains will
maintain moderate easterly flow early this morning and keep
temperatures below freezing. Forecast soundings show the warm nose
near the Lake Superior shore. Therefore, as precipitation continues
to expand northward, expect most of the precipitation to remain
freezing rain, with some sleet more likely with northward extent.
..Bentley.. 04/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 45028768 44778785 44528821 44298860 44018932 44109050
44259123 44699270 44889383 45799401 45899169 45328869
45028768
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe weather potential will be limited for late weekend and into
the upcoming work week based on trends in latest guidance. A strong
synoptic cold front is forecast to push from the Appalachians and
lower MS Valley east/southeastward towards the East Coast and
northern Gulf through the day Sunday. While some severe threat may
materialize across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon,
it will be conditional on favorable timing of the frontal passage
with the diurnal heating maximum. The frontal passage will shunt
appreciable low-level moisture offshore by early Monday. Building
surface high pressure over the central to eastern CONUS through
early week will maintain dry and stable conditions east of the
Rockies. Additionally, the amplification of an upper ridge over the
West will limit thunderstorm chances across the Intermountain West.
This synoptic regime will limit moisture return back into the Plains
with most guidance suggesting that appreciable moisture return (55+
dewpoints) may not return to the Plains until the D8/Thursday time
frame. Consequently, the potential for severe convection will be
limited through at least the middle of the upcoming week.
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe weather potential will be limited for late weekend and into
the upcoming work week based on trends in latest guidance. A strong
synoptic cold front is forecast to push from the Appalachians and
lower MS Valley east/southeastward towards the East Coast and
northern Gulf through the day Sunday. While some severe threat may
materialize across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon,
it will be conditional on favorable timing of the frontal passage
with the diurnal heating maximum. The frontal passage will shunt
appreciable low-level moisture offshore by early Monday. Building
surface high pressure over the central to eastern CONUS through
early week will maintain dry and stable conditions east of the
Rockies. Additionally, the amplification of an upper ridge over the
West will limit thunderstorm chances across the Intermountain West.
This synoptic regime will limit moisture return back into the Plains
with most guidance suggesting that appreciable moisture return (55+
dewpoints) may not return to the Plains until the D8/Thursday time
frame. Consequently, the potential for severe convection will be
limited through at least the middle of the upcoming week.
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms, including a few strong to severe
thunderstorms, are expected across portions of the upper Ohio River
Valley and across the Texas Gulf Coast into the southern Mississippi
River Valley.
...Synopsis...
An upper-level wave (currently noted in water-vapor imagery over the
Pacific Northwest) is forecast to progress from the central Plains
into the Great Lakes region late Friday through early Sunday. As
this occurs, an attendant surface low will migrate northeast,
gradually weakening through Saturday evening. A trailing cold front
will push from the Midwest and southern Plains east/southeastward
into the upper OH Valley and northwestern Gulf. Moisture advection
ahead of the front, coupled with diurnal heating, should support
scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon and early
evening hours. A few strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible
across the upper OH Valley and across the TX Gulf Coast into the
lower MS Valley where deep-layer shear may support organized
convection.
...Upper OH Valley...
Lingering showers and convection will likely be ongoing across the
Midwest/OH Valley by 12 UTC Saturday along the advancing cold front.
This initial activity will likely remain sub-severe through the
morning hours. Some degree of re-intensification and/or pre-frontal
development is expected through early/mid-afternoon as diurnal
heating and moisture advection support increasing buoyancy and
diminish inhibition. 30-40 knot flow through the 1-6 km layer will
likely support loosely organized convection capable of strong to
severe wind gusts, and perhaps sporadic hail. Given the weakening of
the synoptic low and broad-scale ascent, overall coverage of intense
convection may be limited. However, higher risk probabilities may be
warranted if guidance trends towards a greater coverage of robust
convective clusters and/or line segments.
...Lower MS River Valley into the TX Gulf Coast...
Ongoing convection is likely across east TX early Saturday ahead of
the southeastward moving cold front. Some degree of
re-intensification of this activity is anticipated as it migrates
east towards the MS River where richer low-level moisture will
support higher buoyancy (MLCAPE values upwards of 1500-2000 J/kg).
Displacement from the primary upper wave to the north will yield
marginal deep-layer wind shear values (generally around 25 knots),
but this should be sufficient for a few organized storms along the
front through the late afternoon hours with an attendant sporadic
hail/wind risk. Based on latest CAM guidance, the greatest severe
risk will likely emerge across the MS Valley into northern LA,
though some solutions hint that robust convection may develop as far
southwest as the TX Gulf Coast.
..Moore.. 04/02/2026
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms, including a few strong to severe
thunderstorms, are expected across portions of the upper Ohio River
Valley and across the Texas Gulf Coast into the southern Mississippi
River Valley.
...Synopsis...
An upper-level wave (currently noted in water-vapor imagery over the
Pacific Northwest) is forecast to progress from the central Plains
into the Great Lakes region late Friday through early Sunday. As
this occurs, an attendant surface low will migrate northeast,
gradually weakening through Saturday evening. A trailing cold front
will push from the Midwest and southern Plains east/southeastward
into the upper OH Valley and northwestern Gulf. Moisture advection
ahead of the front, coupled with diurnal heating, should support
scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon and early
evening hours. A few strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible
across the upper OH Valley and across the TX Gulf Coast into the
lower MS Valley where deep-layer shear may support organized
convection.
...Upper OH Valley...
Lingering showers and convection will likely be ongoing across the
Midwest/OH Valley by 12 UTC Saturday along the advancing cold front.
This initial activity will likely remain sub-severe through the
morning hours. Some degree of re-intensification and/or pre-frontal
development is expected through early/mid-afternoon as diurnal
heating and moisture advection support increasing buoyancy and
diminish inhibition. 30-40 knot flow through the 1-6 km layer will
likely support loosely organized convection capable of strong to
severe wind gusts, and perhaps sporadic hail. Given the weakening of
the synoptic low and broad-scale ascent, overall coverage of intense
convection may be limited. However, higher risk probabilities may be
warranted if guidance trends towards a greater coverage of robust
convective clusters and/or line segments.
...Lower MS River Valley into the TX Gulf Coast...
Ongoing convection is likely across east TX early Saturday ahead of
the southeastward moving cold front. Some degree of
re-intensification of this activity is anticipated as it migrates
east towards the MS River where richer low-level moisture will
support higher buoyancy (MLCAPE values upwards of 1500-2000 J/kg).
Displacement from the primary upper wave to the north will yield
marginal deep-layer wind shear values (generally around 25 knots),
but this should be sufficient for a few organized storms along the
front through the late afternoon hours with an attendant sporadic
hail/wind risk. Based on latest CAM guidance, the greatest severe
risk will likely emerge across the MS Valley into northern LA,
though some solutions hint that robust convection may develop as far
southwest as the TX Gulf Coast.
..Moore.. 04/02/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...
...Synopsis...
A potent mid-level, shortwave trough will eject northeastward across
the central/northern Great Plains on D2/Friday, while an attendant
surface low develops northeastward into the Midwest. A cold front
associated with this surface low will progress southward across the
central and southern High Plains.
...Central/eastern New Mexico...
High pressure across the Intermountain West coupled with the
previously mentioned surface low across the central Great Plains
will yield a tightened pressure gradient across much of the southern
Rockies, favoring a dry, downslope flow regime. This downslope flow
is forecast to be strongest in the lee of the Sandia Manzano
Mountains and is expected to support critical fire weather
conditions across portions of central/eastern New Mexico, with
sustained westerly surface winds of 20-25 mph forecast to overlap
very low RH of around 10-15% and receptive fuels. Westerly winds of
15-20 mph and very low RH of 10-20% will promote elevated fire
weather concerns across adjacent areas of the southern High Plains.
The aforementioned cold front will pass through the region late in
the afternoon, bringing an abrupt shift to northerly winds with only
a marginal increase in RH expected. These weather conditions should
be monitored closely with any new ignitions or ongoing wildfires as
it could be problematic for fire spread.
...Central High Plains...
Sustained northwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph amid very low RH
of 10-20% and receptive fuels are expected to support elevated to
locally critical fire weather concerns across portions of the
central High Plains Friday afternoon as downslope flow couples with
a dry, post-frontal air mass. Uncertainty regarding the duration of
overlap between sustained surface winds of 20+ mph and RH values
below 15% precludes the addition of Critical highlights at this
time, but this potential will continue to be monitored.
...Southern Nevada into the Low/High Desert of California...
A tightened pressure gradient between surface high pressure across
the Intermountain West and low pressure in the vicinity of the Gulf
of California will favor sustained northerly/northeasterly winds of
20-30 mph amid very low RH of 10-15% (locally lower). While elevated
live fuel moisture is expected to preclude widespread fire weather
concerns, this wind/RH combination may support localized wildfire
spread potential.
..Chalmers.. 04/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...
...Synopsis...
A potent mid-level, shortwave trough will eject northeastward across
the central/northern Great Plains on D2/Friday, while an attendant
surface low develops northeastward into the Midwest. A cold front
associated with this surface low will progress southward across the
central and southern High Plains.
...Central/eastern New Mexico...
High pressure across the Intermountain West coupled with the
previously mentioned surface low across the central Great Plains
will yield a tightened pressure gradient across much of the southern
Rockies, favoring a dry, downslope flow regime. This downslope flow
is forecast to be strongest in the lee of the Sandia Manzano
Mountains and is expected to support critical fire weather
conditions across portions of central/eastern New Mexico, with
sustained westerly surface winds of 20-25 mph forecast to overlap
very low RH of around 10-15% and receptive fuels. Westerly winds of
15-20 mph and very low RH of 10-20% will promote elevated fire
weather concerns across adjacent areas of the southern High Plains.
The aforementioned cold front will pass through the region late in
the afternoon, bringing an abrupt shift to northerly winds with only
a marginal increase in RH expected. These weather conditions should
be monitored closely with any new ignitions or ongoing wildfires as
it could be problematic for fire spread.
...Central High Plains...
Sustained northwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph amid very low RH
of 10-20% and receptive fuels are expected to support elevated to
locally critical fire weather concerns across portions of the
central High Plains Friday afternoon as downslope flow couples with
a dry, post-frontal air mass. Uncertainty regarding the duration of
overlap between sustained surface winds of 20+ mph and RH values
below 15% precludes the addition of Critical highlights at this
time, but this potential will continue to be monitored.
...Southern Nevada into the Low/High Desert of California...
A tightened pressure gradient between surface high pressure across
the Intermountain West and low pressure in the vicinity of the Gulf
of California will favor sustained northerly/northeasterly winds of
20-30 mph amid very low RH of 10-15% (locally lower). While elevated
live fuel moisture is expected to preclude widespread fire weather
concerns, this wind/RH combination may support localized wildfire
spread potential.
..Chalmers.. 04/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
An extensive squall line may develop across parts of the east
central Great Plains late Friday afternoon, and perhaps become
capable of producing widespread strong to severe wind gusts and a
risk for tornadoes while advancing toward to the middle Mississippi
Valley and southeastern Great Plains through Friday evening.
...Synopsis...
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave approaching
the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to translate
east/southeastward over the next 48 hours, eventually ejecting into
the central Plains late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. As
this occurs, robust cyclogenesis is expected along a residual
baroclinic zone across the southern to central Plains. Low to mid
60s dewpoints will spread north from the southern Plains/Ozark
Plateau into the Midwest as the baroclinic zone lifts northward as a
warm front. By late afternoon a cold front will begin pushing
southeast across NE, KS, and OK, which will support scattered to
widespread thunderstorm development by early evening. Elsewhere,
more isolated thunderstorms are expected along the warm frontal zone
draped from the Midwest into the upper OH Valley.
....Iowa and northern Missouri...
Regionally, the best convective environment will most likely emerge
immediately south of the warm front and ahead of the developing
surface low. Here, seasonally rich low-level moisture coupled with
several hours of synoptic-scale ascent/cooling aloft will support
MLCAPE values upwards of 2000 J/kg, and deep-layer shear magnitudes
should be maximized within the warm sector given closer proximity to
the upper jet. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show a
favorable tornado environment along the northern fringe of the warm
sector, characterized by effective SRH values on the order of
200-250 m2/s2 and STP values likely increasing into the 2-4 range by
early evening.
This environment will likely support a threat for significant
tornadoes given discrete storm modes; however, guidance continues to
suggest that initially discrete cells developing along the cold
front will likely grow upscale within a few hours. CAM solutions
continue to vary regarding the possibility of pre-frontal supercell
development along the warm front and/or within the warm sector.
Limited confidence in a prolonged supercell tornado threat precludes
higher tornado probabilities at this time, though the strongly
sheared low-level wind profile will likely support an embedded
tornado threat within the line to the south of the warm front. If
pre-frontal supercells can develop along/near the surface warm front
(as hinted by recent ARW and RRFS solutions) they will likely pose a
threat for strong tornadoes. As the convective line matures and
spreads east, severe gusts should become more prevalent, including
the potential for a significant wind gust or two given the focused
low-level mass response in close proximity to the surface low.
...Kansas into Oklahoma and northern Texas...
Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated by
late afternoon along the trailing cold front from eastern KS into
northern OK. Wind vectors through much of the profile will promote
storm motion and orientation along the initiating cold front, which
will result in quick upscale growth into a convective line.
Propagation southeastward into the warm sector may be modulated by
the mean southwesterly flow regime, though the line should
eventually move east/southeast through late evening and overnight as
the cold front advances southeast. While severe hail may be an
initial threat as convection develops, strong to severe wind gusts
should quickly become the predominant hazard with some threat for
embedded circulations.
Further southwest into southwest OK/northwest TX, weaker forcing for
ascent will likely yield more sparse storm coverage but a higher
probability for discrete cells. Forecast hodographs depict marginal
low-level wind shear, but favorably elongated wind profiles aloft
that will favor splitting supercells capable of producing large to
very large (2+ inch) hail. There is also a signal in some guidance
for somewhat more scattered, potentially elevated, convection
developing by early afternoon across northwest to north-central TX
within a weak warm advection regime. While confidence in how
widespread or intense this activity will be is limited due to model
variance, the environment should support organized cells capable of
large hail.
...Ohio Valley...
Ascent along the residual boundary should promote isolated
thunderstorm by late afternoon as diurnal heating erodes inhibition.
While deep-layer flow will be more modest compared to locations
further west, 30-35 knot mid-level winds will help support a few
organized cells capable of large hail and damaging gusts.
..Moore.. 04/02/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes appear
probable across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and
southern Wisconsin this afternoon. Additionally, damaging
thunderstorm winds will be possible from eastern Iowa northeast into
Michigan.
... Overview ...
A negatively tilted trough will quickly lift northward through the
Plains and across the Great Lakes today and tonight. As this occurs,
a modest surface low will race northeast from north-central Kansas
this morning into Ontario by Friday morning. Attendant to this
surface low, a west-east oriented warm front will lift northward
across the Great Lakes during the day and a north-south cold front
will push east across the region during the late afternoon and
overnight.
... Eastern Iowa east-north into Michigan ...
A strong low-level jet at the start of the forecast period will
support widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area. The
low-level jet will strengthen through the morning as the midlevel
trough approaches and the H850 low intensifies. This will maintain
showers and thunderstorms through at least midday across Iowa and
Illinois before the H850 low moves far enough north and east for the
core of the low-level jet to focus farther east, taking the
precipitation with it.
In the wake of the morning/early afternoon convection, a narrow
corridor of destabilization should occur across central/eastern Iowa
and northwest Illinois to the south of the warm front and east of
the cold front. Scattered supercells are expected to develop along
the cold front during the afternoon where MUCAPE in excess of 1000
J/kg and deep-layer shear on the order of 45 knots exists. Strong
low-level kinematic fields will support a tornado and wind threat
with these initial storms, and, despite modest lapse-rates, the
presence of supercells within a modestly unstable environment will
support some hail potential.
By late afternoon/early evening these supercells should move into a
less stable environment characterized by decreasing CAPE but
increasing low-level shear. Current expectation is that the initial
discrete storms will eventually grow upscale into one or more linear
segments, along the advancing cold front. Despite the decreasing
instability, the strength of the low-level wind field will support a
continued wind threat eastward into Lower Michigan during the
evening and overnight hours.
... Northeast Arkansas, Southeast Missouri, western Tennessee, and
western Kentucky ...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon along
and ahead of the surface cold front, where modest warm-air advection
is forecast to persist through the day. Despite weakening kinematic
fields, deep-layer shear on the order of 30 knots and MUCAPE between
1000-2000 J/kg will support at least some severe potential --
including a tornado or two -- during the late afternoon and early
evening.
..Marsh/Chalmers.. 04/02/2026
Read more
