Storm Prediction Center

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, large hail and a few tornadoes are likely across the southern and central Plains this afternoon and evening. Strong to severe storms are also possible from parts of the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. ...20z Update OK/KS/MO... Observational trends and model guidance continue to show rapid destabilization taking place this afternoon as a warm front gradually lifts northward across OK into southeastern KS and southwestern MO. Large-scale ascent is forecast to increase rapidly tonight as the primary upper trough over the Four Corners ejects eastward, aiding in storm development along a broad area of the front. Semi-discrete supercells and clusters are possible tonight before upscale growth takes place after 00z. The strong synoptic ascent should favor a rapid strengthening of low-level flow and shear. This would support a risk for damaging gusts and some tornadoes with remaining supercells or linear segments. Expand the 5% tornado and 15% wind areas farther east into MO where CAM guidance shows storm persisting overnight. Farther southwest, no significant changes were made to the prior outlook. Scattered semi-discrete thunderstorm development remains likely along the dryline/front intersection across west/southwestern OK into western north TX this afternoon amid filtered heating of a moistening air mass. Initial supercells will pose risk for large hail and a couple tornadoes. The damaging wind threat (and possible some QLCS tornado risk) will likely increase after dark as storms congeal and spread northeastward beneath an intensifying 40-50 kt low-level jet. ...OH Valley and Mid Atlantic... Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing and expected to gradually increase in coverage through this evening along a frontal zone across the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic. South of the front, moderate buoyancy and deep-layer shear will support some storm organization with supercells or organized clusters from northeast KY into southern OH and parts of WV/VA. Damaging gusts, and perhaps some hail are possible with the stronger storms. ..Lyons.. 04/01/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026/ ...OK/TX... Water vapor imagery shows a potent shortwave trough moving across northern AZ. This feature will approach the surface dryline over west TX late this afternoon and evening, resulting in rapid and widespread thunderstorm development from the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK. Activity will build eastward through the evening with a risk of very large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes. ...Northern OK/KS/Southwest MO... Latest surface analysis shows a weak boundary extending from southwest OK into southeast KS. This boundary will lift/mix northward today, resulting in rapid moistening/destabilization of the air mass. Most CAM solutions suggest the potential for the development of a few evening supercells in vicinity of this retreating boundary over north-central OK into southeast KS. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible. ...OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic... A well-defined surface boundary currently extends from southern OH into southern PA, with widespread clouds to the north and strong heating to the south. This strengthening baroclinic zone will provide the focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon and early evening. A cluster of thunderstorms is forecast by several CAM solutions to form over northeast KY/southern OH and track eastward through the afternoon, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts. Other more isolated strong storms are possible from southeast PA into the warm/moist air mass over parts of MD/VA, with a similar risk of gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, large hail and a few tornadoes are likely across the southern and central Plains this afternoon and evening. Strong to severe storms are also possible from parts of the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. ...20z Update OK/KS/MO... Observational trends and model guidance continue to show rapid destabilization taking place this afternoon as a warm front gradually lifts northward across OK into southeastern KS and southwestern MO. Large-scale ascent is forecast to increase rapidly tonight as the primary upper trough over the Four Corners ejects eastward, aiding in storm development along a broad area of the front. Semi-discrete supercells and clusters are possible tonight before upscale growth takes place after 00z. The strong synoptic ascent should favor a rapid strengthening of low-level flow and shear. This would support a risk for damaging gusts and some tornadoes with remaining supercells or linear segments. Expand the 5% tornado and 15% wind areas farther east into MO where CAM guidance shows storm persisting overnight. Farther southwest, no significant changes were made to the prior outlook. Scattered semi-discrete thunderstorm development remains likely along the dryline/front intersection across west/southwestern OK into western north TX this afternoon amid filtered heating of a moistening air mass. Initial supercells will pose risk for large hail and a couple tornadoes. The damaging wind threat (and possible some QLCS tornado risk) will likely increase after dark as storms congeal and spread northeastward beneath an intensifying 40-50 kt low-level jet. ...OH Valley and Mid Atlantic... Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing and expected to gradually increase in coverage through this evening along a frontal zone across the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic. South of the front, moderate buoyancy and deep-layer shear will support some storm organization with supercells or organized clusters from northeast KY into southern OH and parts of WV/VA. Damaging gusts, and perhaps some hail are possible with the stronger storms. ..Lyons.. 04/01/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026/ ...OK/TX... Water vapor imagery shows a potent shortwave trough moving across northern AZ. This feature will approach the surface dryline over west TX late this afternoon and evening, resulting in rapid and widespread thunderstorm development from the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK. Activity will build eastward through the evening with a risk of very large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes. ...Northern OK/KS/Southwest MO... Latest surface analysis shows a weak boundary extending from southwest OK into southeast KS. This boundary will lift/mix northward today, resulting in rapid moistening/destabilization of the air mass. Most CAM solutions suggest the potential for the development of a few evening supercells in vicinity of this retreating boundary over north-central OK into southeast KS. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible. ...OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic... A well-defined surface boundary currently extends from southern OH into southern PA, with widespread clouds to the north and strong heating to the south. This strengthening baroclinic zone will provide the focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon and early evening. A cluster of thunderstorms is forecast by several CAM solutions to form over northeast KY/southern OH and track eastward through the afternoon, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts. Other more isolated strong storms are possible from southeast PA into the warm/moist air mass over parts of MD/VA, with a similar risk of gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, large hail and a few tornadoes are likely across the southern and central Plains this afternoon and evening. Strong to severe storms are also possible from parts of the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. ...20z Update OK/KS/MO... Observational trends and model guidance continue to show rapid destabilization taking place this afternoon as a warm front gradually lifts northward across OK into southeastern KS and southwestern MO. Large-scale ascent is forecast to increase rapidly tonight as the primary upper trough over the Four Corners ejects eastward, aiding in storm development along a broad area of the front. Semi-discrete supercells and clusters are possible tonight before upscale growth takes place after 00z. The strong synoptic ascent should favor a rapid strengthening of low-level flow and shear. This would support a risk for damaging gusts and some tornadoes with remaining supercells or linear segments. Expand the 5% tornado and 15% wind areas farther east into MO where CAM guidance shows storm persisting overnight. Farther southwest, no significant changes were made to the prior outlook. Scattered semi-discrete thunderstorm development remains likely along the dryline/front intersection across west/southwestern OK into western north TX this afternoon amid filtered heating of a moistening air mass. Initial supercells will pose risk for large hail and a couple tornadoes. The damaging wind threat (and possible some QLCS tornado risk) will likely increase after dark as storms congeal and spread northeastward beneath an intensifying 40-50 kt low-level jet. ...OH Valley and Mid Atlantic... Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing and expected to gradually increase in coverage through this evening along a frontal zone across the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic. South of the front, moderate buoyancy and deep-layer shear will support some storm organization with supercells or organized clusters from northeast KY into southern OH and parts of WV/VA. Damaging gusts, and perhaps some hail are possible with the stronger storms. ..Lyons.. 04/01/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026/ ...OK/TX... Water vapor imagery shows a potent shortwave trough moving across northern AZ. This feature will approach the surface dryline over west TX late this afternoon and evening, resulting in rapid and widespread thunderstorm development from the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK. Activity will build eastward through the evening with a risk of very large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes. ...Northern OK/KS/Southwest MO... Latest surface analysis shows a weak boundary extending from southwest OK into southeast KS. This boundary will lift/mix northward today, resulting in rapid moistening/destabilization of the air mass. Most CAM solutions suggest the potential for the development of a few evening supercells in vicinity of this retreating boundary over north-central OK into southeast KS. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible. ...OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic... A well-defined surface boundary currently extends from southern OH into southern PA, with widespread clouds to the north and strong heating to the south. This strengthening baroclinic zone will provide the focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon and early evening. A cluster of thunderstorms is forecast by several CAM solutions to form over northeast KY/southern OH and track eastward through the afternoon, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts. Other more isolated strong storms are possible from southeast PA into the warm/moist air mass over parts of MD/VA, with a similar risk of gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... An extensive squall line may develop across parts of the east central Great Plains late Friday afternoon, and perhaps become capable of producing widespread strong to severe wind gusts and a risk for tornadoes while advancing toward to the middle Mississippi Valley and southeastern Great Plains through Friday evening. ...Discussion... While an initial surface cyclone weakens northeast of the Great Lakes region through the St. Lawrence Valley during the day Friday, a trailing cold front is forecast to advance into the Northeast while stalling near/just south of the Great Lakes region into the middle Mississippi Valley vicinity, ahead of a progressive large-scale mid/upper trough advancing east of the Rockies. It appears that the intersection of this front and a Pacific front advancing east of the southern Rockies may become the focus for a modest surface cyclone, which guidance generally suggests will weaken while migrating east-northeast of the central Great Plains and occluding late Friday through Friday night. It appears that low-level moisture return ahead of the Pacific cold front and dryline will contribute to a corridor of moderate boundary-layer CAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg across parts of northwest Texas through eastern Kansas and western Missouri by Friday afternoon, with similar destabilization possible along the stalled frontal zone near the Missouri/Iowa border, perhaps into parts of the lower Ohio Valley. Aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent downstream of the large-scale trough, their appears a considerable signal in latest model output that the evolution of a fairly extensive east-southeastward advancing squall line is possible ahead of the Pacific cold front late Friday afternoon and evening. After an initial period with potential for severe hail, widespread strong to severe wind gusts and a few embedded tornadoes associated with developing meso-vortices will become the primary threats as convection grows upscale and forward propagates. It is possible that the surface low/frontal intersection near the Missouri/Iowa border vicinity could become a potential focus for higher severe probabilities. However, given initially cool/stable air to the north of this front, and the weakening nature of the surface cyclone, this remains unclear. Higher severe weather probabilities may need to be focused ahead of the Pacific front across parts of western into central Missouri, central into eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas in later outlook updates for this period. ..Kerr.. 04/01/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... An extensive squall line may develop across parts of the east central Great Plains late Friday afternoon, and perhaps become capable of producing widespread strong to severe wind gusts and a risk for tornadoes while advancing toward to the middle Mississippi Valley and southeastern Great Plains through Friday evening. ...Discussion... While an initial surface cyclone weakens northeast of the Great Lakes region through the St. Lawrence Valley during the day Friday, a trailing cold front is forecast to advance into the Northeast while stalling near/just south of the Great Lakes region into the middle Mississippi Valley vicinity, ahead of a progressive large-scale mid/upper trough advancing east of the Rockies. It appears that the intersection of this front and a Pacific front advancing east of the southern Rockies may become the focus for a modest surface cyclone, which guidance generally suggests will weaken while migrating east-northeast of the central Great Plains and occluding late Friday through Friday night. It appears that low-level moisture return ahead of the Pacific cold front and dryline will contribute to a corridor of moderate boundary-layer CAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg across parts of northwest Texas through eastern Kansas and western Missouri by Friday afternoon, with similar destabilization possible along the stalled frontal zone near the Missouri/Iowa border, perhaps into parts of the lower Ohio Valley. Aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent downstream of the large-scale trough, their appears a considerable signal in latest model output that the evolution of a fairly extensive east-southeastward advancing squall line is possible ahead of the Pacific cold front late Friday afternoon and evening. After an initial period with potential for severe hail, widespread strong to severe wind gusts and a few embedded tornadoes associated with developing meso-vortices will become the primary threats as convection grows upscale and forward propagates. It is possible that the surface low/frontal intersection near the Missouri/Iowa border vicinity could become a potential focus for higher severe probabilities. However, given initially cool/stable air to the north of this front, and the weakening nature of the surface cyclone, this remains unclear. Higher severe weather probabilities may need to be focused ahead of the Pacific front across parts of western into central Missouri, central into eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas in later outlook updates for this period. ..Kerr.. 04/01/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.... ...Afternoon Update... Critical fire weather highlights have been maintained where strong southwesterly winds sustained at 20+ mph will align with 10-15 percent RH atop dry fuels. Farther south, within the lee of the NM Guadalupe Mountains, guidance is indicating a couple of afternoon hours of sustained winds greater than 20 mph and RH of 10-15 percent. However, given the narrow window of time and increasing coverage of high clouds throughout the day, critical highlights have been withheld for now. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/01/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026/ ...Synopsis... A second mid-level trough will impinge on the central Rockies tomorrow (Thursday), resulting the development of another surface low over the central Plains. Both gradient and downslope flow will promote dry and windy conditions supportive of wildfire spread across portions of the central and southern High Plains. By afternoon peak heating, widespread 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 15 percent RH for several hours, warranting Elevated highlights across the central and southern High Plains. Critical highlights have been introduced where guidance consensus depicts the highest likelihood of 20+ mph sustained winds overlapping very dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.... ...Afternoon Update... Critical fire weather highlights have been maintained where strong southwesterly winds sustained at 20+ mph will align with 10-15 percent RH atop dry fuels. Farther south, within the lee of the NM Guadalupe Mountains, guidance is indicating a couple of afternoon hours of sustained winds greater than 20 mph and RH of 10-15 percent. However, given the narrow window of time and increasing coverage of high clouds throughout the day, critical highlights have been withheld for now. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/01/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026/ ...Synopsis... A second mid-level trough will impinge on the central Rockies tomorrow (Thursday), resulting the development of another surface low over the central Plains. Both gradient and downslope flow will promote dry and windy conditions supportive of wildfire spread across portions of the central and southern High Plains. By afternoon peak heating, widespread 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 15 percent RH for several hours, warranting Elevated highlights across the central and southern High Plains. Critical highlights have been introduced where guidance consensus depicts the highest likelihood of 20+ mph sustained winds overlapping very dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes appear probable across parts of eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin, northern and central Illinois late Thursday afternoon and evening. Some of these tornadoes may become fast moving and strong. ...Discussion... While a notable mid/upper high persists across the southwestern mid- into subtropical western Atlantic, flow emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific is forecast to remain progressive into and across the Pacific coast through this period. Within this regime, a strong mid/upper jet streak, short wave trough and embedded mid-level cyclone are forecast to dig across the northern U.S. Pacific coast through the northern Great Basin/Intermountain Region and Rockies by early Friday. It appears that this will be accompanied by renewed surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Colorado Rockies late Thursday through Thursday night. As this occurs, a preceding short wave trough, which has emerged from the southern mid-latitude Pacific, likely will be forced north-northeast of the central Great Plains through the Upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes region by late Thursday night. Models suggest that it will deamplify as it does, but an initially deep associated surface cyclone may maintain considerable strength as its center migrates from northeastern Kansas through northeastern Iowa by late afternoon, before undergoing more appreciable weakening while continuing across the eastern Wisconsin/Lower Michigan vicinity overnight. ...Great Plains into Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes... Considerable convective development may be ongoing at the outset of the period across the mid/lower Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes, and southward across the eastern Great Plains into central Texas. Much of this is likely to be well in the process of weakening, particularly across the southeastern Great Plains, as the mid/upper wave continues accelerating across/north-northeast of the central Great Plains during the day. Due to still somewhat modest warm sector boundary-layer moisture, and convective cloud cover spreading downstream across the potential near-surface inflow environment, models suggest little potential for appreciable destabilization and re-intensification of the initial pre-cold frontal convective development as it spreads across and east of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley during the day. However, in its wake, a corridor of better pre-cold frontal low-level moisture return, beneath a plume of a steeper mid-level lapse rates associated with a developing dry slot, is forecast to contribute to at least a narrow corridor of substantive boundary-layer destabilization. It appears that this may include CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg along/ahead of a developing dryline/closely trailing cold front, from the vicinity of the low across east central Iowa southwestward toward the Missouri Ozarks by 20-21Z. Particularly near the surface low and warm front intersection, forcing for ascent probably will be sufficient to support intense convective development, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear and large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs (beneath a 50+ kt southerly 850 mb jet). This should, at least initially, include discrete supercell development with potential to produce tornadoes, before perhaps growing upscale while developing east-northeastward ahead of the surface cyclone into Thursday evening. Additional supercells are likely to continue developing south-southwestward along the trailing dryline, before it is overtaken by the cold front, toward the lower Missouri Valley. Embedded within south-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow on the order of 50+ kts, fast storm motions roughly aligned with the axis of destabilization could support a couple of long-lived/long track supercells with potential for strong tornadoes, before convection weakens Thursday evening. ..Kerr.. 04/01/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes regions Thursday afternoon and evening/night. Damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A surface cyclone is forecast to deepen as it lifts northeastward from the southern/central Plains into the upper MS Valley. This will help advect a plume of seasonally rich moisture (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) northward into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions through the day and into the overnight hours. Residual convection emanating out of the mid-MS Valley during the morning hours is forecast to re-intensify by mid to late afternoon. Concurrently, a second round of thunderstorms is anticipated along the synoptic cold front along the MS Valley by late afternoon. Both rounds of thunderstorms will pose a risk of severe winds, tornadoes, and sporadic large hail as the regional wind field intensifies through the day. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... Latest guidance continues to depict broken convective bands (residual from overnight convection over the Plains) moving out of central and northern MO during the late morning/early afternoon hours. As the synoptic cyclone lift north, moisture advection will likely keep pace with the convection given 20-25 mph surface winds and 45-55 knot flow within the lowest kilometer. Diluted diurnal heating should support adequate (albeit very modest) destabilization for a re-intensification of convection by the mid-afternoon hours. Despite very limited buoyancy (MLCAPE values around 500 J/kg), the combination of very strong low-level flow and 250-300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH will support organized lines with an attendant threat for severe winds and tornadoes. The northern and eastern extent of the wind/tornado threat remains somewhat nebulous and will be conditional on the quality of downstream destabilization. ...Mid/Upper MS River Valley... Air mass recover appears likely in the wake of early-morning convection across northern MO into IA/western IL with most forecast guidance depicting MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Forcing along the cold front to the south of the surface low will likely support semi-discrete convection that should propagate east/northeast into northern IL by late afternoon and evening. A combination of regionally higher buoyancy and strong low-level flow (similar 0-1 km SRH values between 250-300 m2/s2 are expected) will support a threat for semi-discrete cells capable of large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes (including the potential for significant tornadoes). ...Mid-South... A moist and weakly capped environment across the Mid-South/lower OH Valley will support convection through peak heating. However, increasing displacement from stronger synoptic ascent and a lack of more focused mesoscale ascent will likely result in more isolated thunderstorm coverage. Nonetheless, deep-layer wind shear will support organized convection, including the potential for a supercell or two through early evening. ..Moore.. 04/01/2026 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Apr 1 06:01:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Apr 1 06:01:02 UTC 2026.

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, large hail and a few tornadoes are likely across the southern and central Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible from parts of the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. ...Southern and Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward across the Desert Southwest today and into the southern Rockies. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place across the southern Plains. A quasi-stationary front will be located from near Childress northeastward into southeast Kansas, with a dryline extending southward into west-central Texas. To the southeast of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon, with MLCAPE increasing into the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Convective initiation will take place in the late afternoon along the front and dryline, with a broken line of strong to severe storms moving eastward across the southern and central Plains. In addition to a favorable thermodynamic environment, deep-layer shear will gradually improve over the southern Plains as the mid-level trough approaches. RAP forecast soundings in western Oklahoma increase 0-6 km shear from about 25 knots at 21Z to near 40 knots at 00Z, suggesting that environment will support supercell development in the late afternoon. Lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range will be favorable for large hail with supercells, and hailstones greater than 2 inches will be possible. In addition, a tornado threat is expected to develop as low-level shear ramps up during the late afternoon and early evening. Any supercell that can form far enough away from other storms to maintain a relative long life cycle will be favored to produce tornadoes. If any supercell can become intense, then a strong tornado will be possible. Otherwise, cells are forecast to congeal into a line and move eastward across northwest Texas, west-central Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and western Missouri during the evening. The stronger storms within this line should be associated with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. A QLCS tornado threat will also be likely, especially within the more intense bowing line segments. Further south into southwest Texas, isolated supercells with large hail are expected to develop to the east of a dryline. This threat should persist into the early to mid evening. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible. ...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic... West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over much of the eastern U.S. today. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will be located in the Ohio Valley from southern Indiana east-northeastward into far southern Pennsylvania. Surface dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s F to the south of the front will contribute to weak instability by early afternoon. Increasing low-level convergence near the front and warming surface temperatures will result in scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon. Several short line segments are expected to form and move eastward across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians. 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range and steep low-level lapse rates will support isolated severe storms with potential for damaging wind gusts. A low-end tornado threat will also be possible. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 04/01/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...Synopsis... A second mid-level trough will impinge on the central Rockies tomorrow (Thursday), resulting the development of another surface low over the central Plains. Both gradient and downslope flow will promote dry and windy conditions supportive of wildfire spread across portions of the central and southern High Plains. By afternoon peak heating, widespread 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 15 percent RH for several hours, warranting Elevated highlights across the central and southern High Plains. Critical highlights have been introduced where guidance consensus depicts the highest likelihood of 20+ mph sustained winds overlapping very dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 04/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states today, with a surface low expected to develop in Kansas by afternoon. Gradient flow due to surface low intensification, along with some downslope component of flow, will foster windy and modestly dry conditions across the southern High Plains. The latest guidance consensus shows widespread west-southwesterly surface winds exceeding 20 mph amid 20 percent RH across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, warranting Elevated highlights. Widespread clouds and potential showers will hinder widespread Critical conditions, though locally Critical conditions are possible. ..Squitieri.. 04/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Mar 23 11:03:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Mar 23 11:03:02 UTC 2026.

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5... Strong westerly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Thursday. At low-levels, moisture advection is forecast to strengthen during the day from the mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley as surface dewpoints gradually increase into the lower to mid 60s F. A cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into the southern Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing along and near the front. Moderate instability should develop to the south of the front, which combined with strong deep-layer shear will likely support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. The greatest threat is expected to be from northeast Missouri east-northeastward into western and northern Ohio, where a threat area has been added for Thursday. On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, as a front moves southeastward into the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. Although isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near the front during the afternoon and evening, model forecasts suggest that instability will remain relatively weak. This should keep any severe threat minimal. ...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8... The cold front is forecast to move southward through the Southeast on Saturday and should remain near the Gulf Coast on Sunday. In its wake, a relatively dry airmass is forecast to be in place over much of the nation, making thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas. On Monday, some model forecasts suggest that a mid-level shortwave trough will move into the southern Plains. Low-level moisture could return northward into the southern Plains Monday into Monday night. If this where to occur, then thunderstorm activity would be mostly likely Monday night as a low-level jet develops. However, this scenario is highly uncertain due to the extended range in the forecast period. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the U.S. on Wednesday and Wednesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is forecast to move to the Eastern Seaboard on Wednesday. The southern part of the trough will be over the Florida Peninsula, where isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon. Instability is forecast to be relatively weak across the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday suggesting that storms will likely remain below severe limits. Elsewhere, no severe threat is expected over the continental U.S. on Wednesday and Wednesday night. ..Broyles.. 03/23/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the U.S. on Wednesday and Wednesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is forecast to move to the Eastern Seaboard on Wednesday. The southern part of the trough will be over the Florida Peninsula, where isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon. Instability is forecast to be relatively weak across the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday suggesting that storms will likely remain below severe limits. Elsewhere, no severe threat is expected over the continental U.S. on Wednesday and Wednesday night. ..Broyles.. 03/23/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The western upper-level ridge will amplify on Tuesday. With the eastern surface high weakening and moving offshore, the surface pressure gradient will weaken compared to previous days. Pockets of marginally dry and breezy conditions may occur in central Plains and the Midwest. A weak lee trough will also encourage localized dry and windy conditions in the immediate lee of southern/central Rockies. Given the marginal fire weather conditions expected, only localized concerns are expected at this time. ..Wendt.. 03/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more