Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The western upper-level ridge will amplify on Tuesday. With the eastern surface high weakening and moving offshore, the surface pressure gradient will weaken compared to previous days. Pockets of marginally dry and breezy conditions may occur in central Plains and the Midwest. A weak lee trough will also encourage localized dry and windy conditions in the immediate lee of southern/central Rockies. Given the marginal fire weather conditions expected, only localized concerns are expected at this time. ..Wendt.. 03/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The western upper-level ridge will amplify on Tuesday. With the eastern surface high weakening and moving offshore, the surface pressure gradient will weaken compared to previous days. Pockets of marginally dry and breezy conditions may occur in central Plains and the Midwest. A weak lee trough will also encourage localized dry and windy conditions in the immediate lee of southern/central Rockies. Given the marginal fire weather conditions expected, only localized concerns are expected at this time. ..Wendt.. 03/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will modestly amplify in the Northeast today. A cold front will push southward through the southern Appalachians. Farther west, a weak lee trough will help to enhance surface winds on the western flank of a surface high. ...Piedmont... Dry, downslope winds off of the southern Appalachians will promote elevated fire weather this afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will be possible in the lee of the terrain. RH is not as certain, but 25-30% appears probable. Values closer to 20% may occur locally. ...Central Plains... An enhanced surface pressure gradient will develop as a weak lee trough deepens on the westerly flank of a seasonably strong surface high in the Upper Midwest. Surface winds of 15-20 mph are possible. How low RH will drop during the afternoon is the biggest uncertainty in this scenario. Copious mid/high-level cloud cover is expected. Most guidance suggests RH will be only marginally below elevated criteria. Furthermore, the strongest winds may be slightly displaced from the lowest RH. Overall, locally elevated conditions are expected given dry fuels, but broad, sustained elevated conditions are much less certain. ...Southwest into central High Plains... Very dry conditions will exist from the Southwest into southeast Colorado. RH of 10-20% is expected by the afternoon. Winds in most locations will be relatively weak. Terrain-enhanced wind could reach up to 20 mph. Locally elevated to near critical conditions could occur. ..Wendt.. 03/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will modestly amplify in the Northeast today. A cold front will push southward through the southern Appalachians. Farther west, a weak lee trough will help to enhance surface winds on the western flank of a surface high. ...Piedmont... Dry, downslope winds off of the southern Appalachians will promote elevated fire weather this afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will be possible in the lee of the terrain. RH is not as certain, but 25-30% appears probable. Values closer to 20% may occur locally. ...Central Plains... An enhanced surface pressure gradient will develop as a weak lee trough deepens on the westerly flank of a seasonably strong surface high in the Upper Midwest. Surface winds of 15-20 mph are possible. How low RH will drop during the afternoon is the biggest uncertainty in this scenario. Copious mid/high-level cloud cover is expected. Most guidance suggests RH will be only marginally below elevated criteria. Furthermore, the strongest winds may be slightly displaced from the lowest RH. Overall, locally elevated conditions are expected given dry fuels, but broad, sustained elevated conditions are much less certain. ...Southwest into central High Plains... Very dry conditions will exist from the Southwest into southeast Colorado. RH of 10-20% is expected by the afternoon. Winds in most locations will be relatively weak. Terrain-enhanced wind could reach up to 20 mph. Locally elevated to near critical conditions could occur. ..Wendt.. 03/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday across the Florida Peninsula. No severe threat is forecast. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave mid-level trough will move east-southeastward into the eastern U.S. on Tuesday. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will move from the central Appalachians into the western Atlantic. A dry airmass will be located over most of the continental U.S, except along parts of the Gulf Coast. Within this moist airmass, isolated thunderstorms may develop over the Florida Peninsula Tuesday afternoon. Instability across Florida is expected to be weak, and no severe threat is expected. ..Broyles.. 03/23/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday across the Florida Peninsula. No severe threat is forecast. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave mid-level trough will move east-southeastward into the eastern U.S. on Tuesday. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will move from the central Appalachians into the western Atlantic. A dry airmass will be located over most of the continental U.S, except along parts of the Gulf Coast. Within this moist airmass, isolated thunderstorms may develop over the Florida Peninsula Tuesday afternoon. Instability across Florida is expected to be weak, and no severe threat is expected. ..Broyles.. 03/23/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today from eastern Georgia northward into extreme southeast Virginia. ... Overview ... A western ridge will support northwest midlevel flow across the eastern US on Monday. Within that flow, a broad shortwave trough will move through the Northeast out into the Atlantic Ocean. At the surface, a weak low off the Mid-Atlantic Coast will quickly move east-northeast, dragging a cold front south along the East Coast. The cold front will be draped across the northern Florida Peninsula Tuesday morning. ... Eastern Georgia northward to extreme Southeast Virginia ... Isolated thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon along the southward moving cold front. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain lean as veered low-level flow ahead of the front acts to limit convergence along the front. The airmass ahead of the front will become weakly unstable during the afternoon, with the degree of instability strongly dependent upon the quality of boundary layer moisture. However, even if boundary layer moisture is greater than 00Z guidance indicates, generally neutral height tendency, poor midlevel lapse rates, and weak deep-layer shear will further hinder sustained robust thunderstorm updrafts. As such, organized severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Marsh/Wendt.. 03/23/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today from eastern Georgia northward into extreme southeast Virginia. ... Overview ... A western ridge will support northwest midlevel flow across the eastern US on Monday. Within that flow, a broad shortwave trough will move through the Northeast out into the Atlantic Ocean. At the surface, a weak low off the Mid-Atlantic Coast will quickly move east-northeast, dragging a cold front south along the East Coast. The cold front will be draped across the northern Florida Peninsula Tuesday morning. ... Eastern Georgia northward to extreme Southeast Virginia ... Isolated thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon along the southward moving cold front. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain lean as veered low-level flow ahead of the front acts to limit convergence along the front. The airmass ahead of the front will become weakly unstable during the afternoon, with the degree of instability strongly dependent upon the quality of boundary layer moisture. However, even if boundary layer moisture is greater than 00Z guidance indicates, generally neutral height tendency, poor midlevel lapse rates, and weak deep-layer shear will further hinder sustained robust thunderstorm updrafts. As such, organized severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Marsh/Wendt.. 03/23/2026 Read more

MD 0289 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 73...74... FOR SOUTHEAST IN...NORTHEAST KY...SOUTHERN OH
Mesoscale Discussion 0289 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Areas affected...southeast IN...northeast KY...southern OH Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 73...74... Valid 230304Z - 230430Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 73, 74 continues. SUMMARY...Severe hail and strong to localized severe gusts should diminish overnight as convection spreads east-southeast over the central Ohio Valley. A new WW is not anticipated, but a local extension of WW 73 may occur given scheduled expiration of 04Z. DISCUSSION...A generally broken arc of elevated convection from southern IN through central OH has been increasingly congealing into a broader linear cluster. This process has yielded a reduction of the more numerous hail cores earlier this evening. But a longer-lived, tail-end updraft over southern IN has produced hail up to golf ball size in the past hour. This could potentially persist for the next couple hours as it tracks near the Louisville Metro Area. This similar southwest portion of the convective arc has more readily accelerated towards the slower cold front. If an organized cluster can persist, this may merge into the front and aid in a brief uptick in damaging wind potential across northern KY. Still, 00Z CAM guidance is highly insistent on convection diminishing overnight given the modest buoyancy and weakening of lapse rates. ..Grams.. 03/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND... LAT...LON 38388656 39508517 39678427 39888324 39968254 39938216 39728171 39218171 38768291 38328357 38048474 38048565 38218644 38388656 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0074 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE OWB TO 25 SSE BMG TO 55 W LUK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0289 ..GRAMS..03/23/26 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...IND...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC019-025-043-061-077-117-123-143-175-230440- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CRAWFORD FLOYD HARRISON JEFFERSON ORANGE PERRY SCOTT WASHINGTON KYC223-230440- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE TRIMBLE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 74 SEVERE TSTM IL IN KY 222215Z - 230500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 74 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 615 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Central and Southern Indiana Northern Kentucky * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 615 PM until 100 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening near/just north of a southeast-moving front, with unseasonably steep lapse rates and strong deep-layer winds being supportive of severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west of Mount Vernon IL to 55 miles south of Muncie IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 72...WW 73... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0073 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 73 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW LUK TO 20 NE ZZV. WW 73 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 230400Z BUT MAY BE EXTENDED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0289. ..GRAMS..03/23/26 ATTN...WFO...ILN...CLE...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 73 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC029-047-115-137-155-230400- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DEARBORN FRANKLIN OHIO RIPLEY SWITZERLAND KYC015-037-117-230400- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE CAMPBELL KENTON OHC001-009-015-017-025-027-045-047-049-057-061-071-073-079-089- 105-115-127-129-131-141-145-163-165-167-230400- OH Read more

WW 0074 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW EVV TO 40 ENE SLO TO 20 S MIE. ..GRAMS..03/23/26 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...IND...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC047-059-101-185-191-193-230340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDWARDS GALLATIN LAWRENCE WABASH WAYNE WHITE INC005-013-019-025-027-031-037-043-051-055-061-071-077-079-081- 083-093-101-105-117-119-123-125-129-139-143-145-147-153-163-173- 175-230340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BROWN CLARK CRAWFORD DAVIESS DECATUR DUBOIS FLOYD GIBSON GREENE HARRISON JACKSON JEFFERSON JENNINGS JOHNSON KNOX LAWRENCE MARTIN MONROE ORANGE OWEN PERRY PIKE POSEY RUSH SCOTT SHELBY Read more

WW 0073 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 73 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE MIE TO 20 SW CAK. ..GRAMS..03/23/26 ATTN...WFO...ILN...CLE...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 73 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC029-041-047-115-137-155-161-177-230240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DEARBORN FAYETTE FRANKLIN OHIO RIPLEY SWITZERLAND UNION WAYNE KYC015-037-117-230240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE CAMPBELL KENTON OHC001-009-015-017-021-023-025-027-037-041-045-047-049-057-061- 071-073-075-079-083-089-091-097-099-101-105-109-113-115-117-127- 129-131-135-139-141-145-149-151-159-163-165-167-169-230240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0073 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 73 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE MIE TO 20 SW CAK. ..GRAMS..03/23/26 ATTN...WFO...ILN...CLE...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 73 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC029-041-047-115-137-155-161-177-230240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DEARBORN FAYETTE FRANKLIN OHIO RIPLEY SWITZERLAND UNION WAYNE KYC015-037-117-230240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE CAMPBELL KENTON OHC001-009-015-017-021-023-025-027-037-041-045-047-049-057-061- 071-073-075-079-083-089-091-097-099-101-105-109-113-115-117-127- 129-131-135-139-141-145-149-151-159-163-165-167-169-230240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 73 SEVERE TSTM IN KY OH 222140Z - 230400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 73 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 540 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Indiana Far Northern Kentucky Ohio * Effective this Sunday afternoon from 540 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms will likely continue to develop near the front, with additional development expected farther north this evening along/north of the front, with large hail and damaging winds possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west southwest of Dayton OH to 15 miles east northeast of Zanesville OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 72... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0288 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 72... FOR UPPER OHIO VALLEY VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0288 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0807 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Areas affected...Upper Ohio Valley Vicinity Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 72... Valid 230107Z - 230230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 72 continues. SUMMARY...Large hail will remain possible with storms as they move eastward trough eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania. The environment farther east will become less supportive of severe convection, however. DISCUSSION...Lift from a low-amplitude trough in the Midwest continues to promote elevated convection, behind a cold front, in the upper Ohio Valley. A few stronger cores have noted in central into eastern Ohio. Occasional large hail will be possible with these storms given the steep mid-level lapse rates observed on this evening's ILN sounding and around 55 kts of 0-6 km shear on area VAD data. That said, the observed sounding at PIT showed a modest 6 C/km mid-level lapse rate. Convection may be able to maintain some intensity into western Pennsylvania, but will gradually weaken with eastward extent. This trend has been observed over the past few hours with prior convective activity. ..Wendt.. 03/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 39458125 39468192 39498217 39798215 40698224 41068213 41178121 41247983 41107935 40827925 40117928 39717949 39438033 39458125 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0072 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 72 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW CAK TO 10 NW PIT TO 30 SE LBE TO 25 WNW MRB TO 10 W MRB. ..WENDT..03/23/26 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 72 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC001-023-230440- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY GARRETT OHC013-059-067-081-111-119-121-230440- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELMONT GUERNSEY HARRISON JEFFERSON MONROE MUSKINGUM NOBLE PAC051-059-125-230440- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAYETTE GREENE WASHINGTON Read more

WW 0072 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 72 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0288 ..WENDT..03/23/26 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 72 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC001-023-230240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY GARRETT OHC013-019-029-031-059-067-081-111-119-121-157-230240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON GUERNSEY HARRISON JEFFERSON MONROE MUSKINGUM NOBLE TUSCARAWAS PAC003-005-007-009-013-019-021-027-033-035-041-043-051-055-057- 059-061-063-067-073-087-093-097-099-109-111-119-125-129- 230240- PA Read more

WW 0072 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 72 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0288 ..WENDT..03/23/26 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 72 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC001-023-230240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY GARRETT OHC013-019-029-031-059-067-081-111-119-121-157-230240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON GUERNSEY HARRISON JEFFERSON MONROE MUSKINGUM NOBLE TUSCARAWAS PAC003-005-007-009-013-019-021-027-033-035-041-043-051-055-057- 059-061-063-067-073-087-093-097-099-109-111-119-125-129- 230240- PA Read more