SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Valid 222000Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
EASTERN OHIO...THE WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE...AND PARTS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms appear likely this afternoon and
evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic,
particularly from far eastern Ohio into central Pennsylvania. Large
to very large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats,
but a tornado or two may also occur.
...20z Update - Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic...
Overall the previous forecast remains on track. Only minor
adjustments were made to the southern extent of the level 2 of 5
(Slight) risk area in KY. This adjustment was made based on latest
trends in timing/intensity derived from CAMs and RAP forecast
soundings across the southwest extent of the severe risk area.
While limited low-level moisture is expected to temper instability
across the region, the 18z RAOB from PIT showed the presence of very
steep mid and low-level lapse rates amid strong unidirectional
vertical wind profiles. This environment should support scattered
damaging gusts, and large to very large hail from any initially
discrete supercell structures. For more details regarding short term
severe potential, reference MCD 284 and Severe Thunderstorm Watch
72.
..Leitman.. 03/22/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026/
...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...
Early-morning soundings reveal a plume of steep mid-level lapse
rates (i.e. greater than 8 deg C per km from 700 to 500 mb)
extending from the southern Plains northeastward into the Upper OH
Valley. This plume of steeper lapse rates is largely oriented along
and west of a cold front that extends from a low in south-central KS
to another low in western NY. The airmass preceding this front is
seasonally warm and moist, with temperatures in the 70s and
dewpoints in the 50s across much of the OH Valley. The expectation
is for continued airmass modification today as moisture advects
northeastward. However, this moistening will be offset by strong
mixing, with dewpoints likely ranging from the upper 50s across the
Lower OH Valley into the low 50s across western/central PA. This
low-level moisture, combined with temperatures in the upper 70s/low
80s, should result in an erosion of surface-based convective
inhibition ahead of the front from eastern OH through central PA.
Additionally, given the steep mid-level lapse rates in place, weak
instability (MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg) is expected to develop
ahead of the front.
Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop by
19-21Z from eastern OH into western/central PA along and just ahead
the front, forced by low-level convergence along the front and in
the vicinity of a weak surface low moving across the region.
An initially discrete mode is anticipated, with strong deep-layer
shear favoring the development of supercells. Long/straight
hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates suggest that large to
very large hail (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) is the main
threat with these supercells. High LCLs and steep low-level lapse
rates also support the potential for strong downbursts as well as
trend towards upscale growth and a more linear mode as it moves
east-southeastward across PA through the evening. Primary severe
threat should transition from hail to damaging gusts throughout the
evening. Given the high LCLs and limited low-level moisture, the
tornado risk appears low, although not zero given the supercell mode
anticipated.
Farther west across the low to mid OH Valley, thunderstorm
initiation should occur a bit later (i.e. closer to 00Z) as modest
ascent attendant to a low-amplitude shortwave trough augments
low-level convergence along the front. Much of this convection may
tend to become elevated along/north of the undercutting cold front.
Even so, steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear will support a
continued risk for large hail. Some isolated very large hail is
possible with the initially more cellular development across
southern IL, central IN, and west-central OH. A trend towards more
linear structures is expected with time, and warm/dry low to
mid-levels could still support some strong gusts despite the
elevated storm structures.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from far
southeast Georgia to the Florida Peninsula. No severe threat is
forecast.
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper shortwave trough and strong surface low are forecast to
move across parts of British Columbia on Tuesday, as a trailing cold
front moves across the Pacific Northwest. Weak convection may
develop along and in the wake of this cold front, but inland
buoyancy appears too meager for more than very isolated thunderstorm
potential.
Farther south and east, an upper ridge is forecast to amplify
somewhat over the Southwest on Tuesday, with a west-northwesterly
flow regime expected to persist downstream across much of the
central/eastern CONUS. An embedded mid/upper-level shortwave trough
will move across the lower MS Valley and Southeast. A cold front
that moves into north FL late D2/Monday is forecast to slow down and
weaken on Tuesday.
Modest buoyancy may develop near the remnant front, and isolated
storm development will be possible across the FL Peninsula and
adjacent southeast GA, both diurnally, and potentially in response
to the approaching shortwave trough late in the period. Weak
deep-layer shear is expected to limit storm organization. Some weak
destabilization will also be possible near the remnant front across
the central Gulf Coast and lower MS Valley. It appears the shortwave
trough will be displaced north of any appreciable destabilization
along the western portion of the remnant front, but weak convection
cannot be ruled out from LA/MS to the FL Panhandle.
..Dean.. 03/22/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from far
southeast Georgia to the Florida Peninsula. No severe threat is
forecast.
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper shortwave trough and strong surface low are forecast to
move across parts of British Columbia on Tuesday, as a trailing cold
front moves across the Pacific Northwest. Weak convection may
develop along and in the wake of this cold front, but inland
buoyancy appears too meager for more than very isolated thunderstorm
potential.
Farther south and east, an upper ridge is forecast to amplify
somewhat over the Southwest on Tuesday, with a west-northwesterly
flow regime expected to persist downstream across much of the
central/eastern CONUS. An embedded mid/upper-level shortwave trough
will move across the lower MS Valley and Southeast. A cold front
that moves into north FL late D2/Monday is forecast to slow down and
weaken on Tuesday.
Modest buoyancy may develop near the remnant front, and isolated
storm development will be possible across the FL Peninsula and
adjacent southeast GA, both diurnally, and potentially in response
to the approaching shortwave trough late in the period. Weak
deep-layer shear is expected to limit storm organization. Some weak
destabilization will also be possible near the remnant front across
the central Gulf Coast and lower MS Valley. It appears the shortwave
trough will be displaced north of any appreciable destabilization
along the western portion of the remnant front, but weak convection
cannot be ruled out from LA/MS to the FL Panhandle.
..Dean.. 03/22/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
A slight expansion to the north and east was made to the Elevated
area focused over the mid-Atlantic. Recent rainfall constrains the
southern side of the area where marginally elevated weather
conditions will be possible, but fuels are not as receptive. Behind
the cold front, northwest winds sustained at 10-20 mph will combine
with RHs of 20-30% during peak heating on the afternoon of Day
2/Monday. While some of the latest forecast guidance has trended
slightly drier, downslope flow (with occasional gusts exceeding 30
mph) on the lee side of the Appalachian Mountains is expected to dry
air even further than consensus currently indicates.
..Stearns.. 03/22/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026/
...Synopsis...
On Monday, an upper-level trough is expected to amplify across parts
of the East. A cold front will push southward through the southern
Appalachians. Dry southerly return flow will occur in the Plains.
...Piedmont...
Dry and breezy downslope winds will occur behind the cold front
during the afternoon. RH could drop as low as 25-30%. Winds of
around 15 mph are possible, though locally higher speeds could
occur. Some precipitation occurred late Saturday afternoon,
especially in Upstate South Carolina. Locally elevated conditions
remain possible in South Carolina, but confidence in sustained
Elevated conditions is higher farther north where fuels should be
relatively drier.
...Southwest into the Plains...
A more nebulous surface pattern will generally keep winds weak in
most areas. However, some enhanced southerly winds are possible,
particularly in portions of the southern/central Plains. RH the
Southwest will likely remain in the 10-20% range. RH in the Plains
is less certain, but pockets around 20% could be observed. Without
stronger surface winds, only locally elevated conditions are
expected.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
A slight expansion to the north and east was made to the Elevated
area focused over the mid-Atlantic. Recent rainfall constrains the
southern side of the area where marginally elevated weather
conditions will be possible, but fuels are not as receptive. Behind
the cold front, northwest winds sustained at 10-20 mph will combine
with RHs of 20-30% during peak heating on the afternoon of Day
2/Monday. While some of the latest forecast guidance has trended
slightly drier, downslope flow (with occasional gusts exceeding 30
mph) on the lee side of the Appalachian Mountains is expected to dry
air even further than consensus currently indicates.
..Stearns.. 03/22/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026/
...Synopsis...
On Monday, an upper-level trough is expected to amplify across parts
of the East. A cold front will push southward through the southern
Appalachians. Dry southerly return flow will occur in the Plains.
...Piedmont...
Dry and breezy downslope winds will occur behind the cold front
during the afternoon. RH could drop as low as 25-30%. Winds of
around 15 mph are possible, though locally higher speeds could
occur. Some precipitation occurred late Saturday afternoon,
especially in Upstate South Carolina. Locally elevated conditions
remain possible in South Carolina, but confidence in sustained
Elevated conditions is higher farther north where fuels should be
relatively drier.
...Southwest into the Plains...
A more nebulous surface pattern will generally keep winds weak in
most areas. However, some enhanced southerly winds are possible,
particularly in portions of the southern/central Plains. RH the
Southwest will likely remain in the 10-20% range. RH in the Plains
is less certain, but pockets around 20% could be observed. Without
stronger surface winds, only locally elevated conditions are
expected.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN GA/SC INTO SOUTHERN NC...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Monday from eastern
Georgia and South Carolina into southern North Carolina.
...Parts of the Carolinas/Georgia...
A cold front will move southward across parts of the Carolinas and
Southeast on Monday, as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves
across New England. Weak to locally moderate buoyancy along/ahead of
the front will support isolated diurnal thunderstorm potential,
though weak midlevel lapse rates will tend to limit storm intensity.
Seasonably strong prefrontal heating and steepening of low-level
lapse rates could support localized strong/damaging gusts during the
afternoon and early evening, if deep convection can be sustained
within the weakly forced environment.
..Dean.. 03/22/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN GA/SC INTO SOUTHERN NC...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Monday from eastern
Georgia and South Carolina into southern North Carolina.
...Parts of the Carolinas/Georgia...
A cold front will move southward across parts of the Carolinas and
Southeast on Monday, as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves
across New England. Weak to locally moderate buoyancy along/ahead of
the front will support isolated diurnal thunderstorm potential,
though weak midlevel lapse rates will tend to limit storm intensity.
Seasonably strong prefrontal heating and steepening of low-level
lapse rates could support localized strong/damaging gusts during the
afternoon and early evening, if deep convection can be sustained
within the weakly forced environment.
..Dean.. 03/22/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN GA/SC INTO SOUTHERN NC...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Monday from eastern
Georgia and South Carolina into southern North Carolina.
...Parts of the Carolinas/Georgia...
A cold front will move southward across parts of the Carolinas and
Southeast on Monday, as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves
across New England. Weak to locally moderate buoyancy along/ahead of
the front will support isolated diurnal thunderstorm potential,
though weak midlevel lapse rates will tend to limit storm intensity.
Seasonably strong prefrontal heating and steepening of low-level
lapse rates could support localized strong/damaging gusts during the
afternoon and early evening, if deep convection can be sustained
within the weakly forced environment.
..Dean.. 03/22/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Valid 221630Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms appear likely this afternoon and
evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic,
particularly from far eastern Ohio into central Pennsylvania. Large
to very large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats,
but a tornado or two may also occur.
...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...
Early-morning soundings reveal a plume of steep mid-level lapse
rates (i.e. greater than 8 deg C per km from 700 to 500 mb)
extending from the southern Plains northeastward into the Upper OH
Valley. This plume of steeper lapse rates is largely oriented along
and west of a cold front that extends from a low in south-central KS
to another low in western NY. The airmass preceding this front is
seasonally warm and moist, with temperatures in the 70s and
dewpoints in the 50s across much of the OH Valley. The expectation
is for continued airmass modification today as moisture advects
northeastward. However, this moistening will be offset by strong
mixing, with dewpoints likely ranging from the upper 50s across the
Lower OH Valley into the low 50s across western/central PA. This
low-level moisture, combined with temperatures in the upper 70s/low
80s, should result in an erosion of surface-based convective
inhibition ahead of the front from eastern OH through central PA.
Additionally, given the steep mid-level lapse rates in place, weak
instability (MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg) is expected to develop
ahead of the front.
Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop by
19-21Z from eastern OH into western/central PA along and just ahead
the front, forced by low-level convergence along the front and in
the vicinity of a weak surface low moving across the region.
An initially discrete mode is anticipated, with strong deep-layer
shear favoring the development of supercells. Long/straight
hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates suggest that large to
very large hail (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) is the main
threat with these supercells. High LCLs and steep low-level lapse
rates also support the potential for strong downbursts as well as
trend towards upscale growth and a more linear mode as it moves
east-southeastward across PA through the evening. Primary severe
threat should transition from hail to damaging gusts throughout the
evening. Given the high LCLs and limited low-level moisture, the
tornado risk appears low, although not zero given the supercell mode
anticipated.
Farther west across the low to mid OH Valley, thunderstorm
initiation should occur a bit later (i.e. closer to 00Z) as modest
ascent attendant to a low-amplitude shortwave trough augments
low-level convergence along the front. Much of this convection may
tend to become elevated along/north of the undercutting cold front.
Even so, steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear will support a
continued risk for large hail. Some isolated very large hail is
possible with the initially more cellular development across
southern IL, central IN, and west-central OH. A trend towards more
linear structures is expected with time, and warm/dry low to
mid-levels could still support some strong gusts despite the
elevated storm structures.
..Mosier/Weinman.. 03/22/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Valid 221630Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms appear likely this afternoon and
evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic,
particularly from far eastern Ohio into central Pennsylvania. Large
to very large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats,
but a tornado or two may also occur.
...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...
Early-morning soundings reveal a plume of steep mid-level lapse
rates (i.e. greater than 8 deg C per km from 700 to 500 mb)
extending from the southern Plains northeastward into the Upper OH
Valley. This plume of steeper lapse rates is largely oriented along
and west of a cold front that extends from a low in south-central KS
to another low in western NY. The airmass preceding this front is
seasonally warm and moist, with temperatures in the 70s and
dewpoints in the 50s across much of the OH Valley. The expectation
is for continued airmass modification today as moisture advects
northeastward. However, this moistening will be offset by strong
mixing, with dewpoints likely ranging from the upper 50s across the
Lower OH Valley into the low 50s across western/central PA. This
low-level moisture, combined with temperatures in the upper 70s/low
80s, should result in an erosion of surface-based convective
inhibition ahead of the front from eastern OH through central PA.
Additionally, given the steep mid-level lapse rates in place, weak
instability (MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg) is expected to develop
ahead of the front.
Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop by
19-21Z from eastern OH into western/central PA along and just ahead
the front, forced by low-level convergence along the front and in
the vicinity of a weak surface low moving across the region.
An initially discrete mode is anticipated, with strong deep-layer
shear favoring the development of supercells. Long/straight
hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates suggest that large to
very large hail (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) is the main
threat with these supercells. High LCLs and steep low-level lapse
rates also support the potential for strong downbursts as well as
trend towards upscale growth and a more linear mode as it moves
east-southeastward across PA through the evening. Primary severe
threat should transition from hail to damaging gusts throughout the
evening. Given the high LCLs and limited low-level moisture, the
tornado risk appears low, although not zero given the supercell mode
anticipated.
Farther west across the low to mid OH Valley, thunderstorm
initiation should occur a bit later (i.e. closer to 00Z) as modest
ascent attendant to a low-amplitude shortwave trough augments
low-level convergence along the front. Much of this convection may
tend to become elevated along/north of the undercutting cold front.
Even so, steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear will support a
continued risk for large hail. Some isolated very large hail is
possible with the initially more cellular development across
southern IL, central IN, and west-central OH. A trend towards more
linear structures is expected with time, and warm/dry low to
mid-levels could still support some strong gusts despite the
elevated storm structures.
..Mosier/Weinman.. 03/22/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Valid 221630Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms appear likely this afternoon and
evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic,
particularly from far eastern Ohio into central Pennsylvania. Large
to very large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats,
but a tornado or two may also occur.
...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...
Early-morning soundings reveal a plume of steep mid-level lapse
rates (i.e. greater than 8 deg C per km from 700 to 500 mb)
extending from the southern Plains northeastward into the Upper OH
Valley. This plume of steeper lapse rates is largely oriented along
and west of a cold front that extends from a low in south-central KS
to another low in western NY. The airmass preceding this front is
seasonally warm and moist, with temperatures in the 70s and
dewpoints in the 50s across much of the OH Valley. The expectation
is for continued airmass modification today as moisture advects
northeastward. However, this moistening will be offset by strong
mixing, with dewpoints likely ranging from the upper 50s across the
Lower OH Valley into the low 50s across western/central PA. This
low-level moisture, combined with temperatures in the upper 70s/low
80s, should result in an erosion of surface-based convective
inhibition ahead of the front from eastern OH through central PA.
Additionally, given the steep mid-level lapse rates in place, weak
instability (MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg) is expected to develop
ahead of the front.
Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop by
19-21Z from eastern OH into western/central PA along and just ahead
the front, forced by low-level convergence along the front and in
the vicinity of a weak surface low moving across the region.
An initially discrete mode is anticipated, with strong deep-layer
shear favoring the development of supercells. Long/straight
hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates suggest that large to
very large hail (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) is the main
threat with these supercells. High LCLs and steep low-level lapse
rates also support the potential for strong downbursts as well as
trend towards upscale growth and a more linear mode as it moves
east-southeastward across PA through the evening. Primary severe
threat should transition from hail to damaging gusts throughout the
evening. Given the high LCLs and limited low-level moisture, the
tornado risk appears low, although not zero given the supercell mode
anticipated.
Farther west across the low to mid OH Valley, thunderstorm
initiation should occur a bit later (i.e. closer to 00Z) as modest
ascent attendant to a low-amplitude shortwave trough augments
low-level convergence along the front. Much of this convection may
tend to become elevated along/north of the undercutting cold front.
Even so, steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear will support a
continued risk for large hail. Some isolated very large hail is
possible with the initially more cellular development across
southern IL, central IN, and west-central OH. A trend towards more
linear structures is expected with time, and warm/dry low to
mid-levels could still support some strong gusts despite the
elevated storm structures.
..Mosier/Weinman.. 03/22/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Valid 221700Z - 231200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...SOUTHWEST...AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...
No changes were made to the drawn area. Strong northerly winds will
remain behind the cold front through mid-afternoon before beginning
to weaken through sunset. Forecast guidance continues to indicate
that afternoon RHs will struggle to fall below 25-30% over Kansas,
where the front has already moved through. Very dry fuels combined
with sustained northerly winds of 20-25 mph will continue to promote
at least elevated fire weather conditions through the mid to late
afternoon hours in this area. Meanwhile, the cold front is expected
to pass through much of Oklahoma and the Trans Pecos region by
around 9PM CDT. Behind the front, sustained 15-25 mph northeast to
east winds can be expected across eastern New Mexico and portions of
bordering Texas.
..Stearns.. 03/22/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026/
...Synopsis...
A cold front will move southward into the southern Plains today. Dry
and breezy conditions are expected both ahead of and behind the
front.
...Texas Panhandle/South Plains/Rolling Plains into central
Oklahoma...
The fire environment will be somewhat complex today. The timing of
the cold front still appears to be during the mid/late morning in
the southern High Plains and early afternoon for central Oklahoma.
Winds will be westerly/southwesterly ahead of the front with a sharp
change to northerly behind it. Temperatures in the 80s/90s F are
possible ahead of the front. Even behind the front, areas of 70s F
are still possible in the High Plains. Winds of 20-25 mph (perhaps
locally higher) are forecast in the pre- and post-frontal
environment. Strong gusts will also occur. Given ERC values at or
above the 95th percentile due to anomalously warm/hot temperatures
and ongoing drought, Critical fire weather is possible even in areas
where RH will be in the 25-30% range. That said, locations ahead of
the front will likely be quite dry during the afternoon (10-20% can
be expected).
...Southwest...
A very dry airmass will be in place during the afternoon. RH in the
single digits is certainly possible, though the spatial extent is
not clear. 10-15% RH will be observed more broadly. Relatively weak
winds will limit the overall fire weather threat. 10-15 mph can be
expected in most places with perhaps some higher speeds within the
terrain. Elevated fire weather concerns are expected.
...Central Texas into parts of the Ozarks...
Dry and breezy conditions will occur ahead of the front.
Southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph are generally expected, though some
locally higher winds are possible. RH will drop to 20-30% by the
afternoon. Fuel receptiveness generally decreases with eastward
extent given rainfall in the last week. Even so, Elevated fire
weather is expected for these areas.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Valid 221700Z - 231200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...SOUTHWEST...AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...
No changes were made to the drawn area. Strong northerly winds will
remain behind the cold front through mid-afternoon before beginning
to weaken through sunset. Forecast guidance continues to indicate
that afternoon RHs will struggle to fall below 25-30% over Kansas,
where the front has already moved through. Very dry fuels combined
with sustained northerly winds of 20-25 mph will continue to promote
at least elevated fire weather conditions through the mid to late
afternoon hours in this area. Meanwhile, the cold front is expected
to pass through much of Oklahoma and the Trans Pecos region by
around 9PM CDT. Behind the front, sustained 15-25 mph northeast to
east winds can be expected across eastern New Mexico and portions of
bordering Texas.
..Stearns.. 03/22/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026/
...Synopsis...
A cold front will move southward into the southern Plains today. Dry
and breezy conditions are expected both ahead of and behind the
front.
...Texas Panhandle/South Plains/Rolling Plains into central
Oklahoma...
The fire environment will be somewhat complex today. The timing of
the cold front still appears to be during the mid/late morning in
the southern High Plains and early afternoon for central Oklahoma.
Winds will be westerly/southwesterly ahead of the front with a sharp
change to northerly behind it. Temperatures in the 80s/90s F are
possible ahead of the front. Even behind the front, areas of 70s F
are still possible in the High Plains. Winds of 20-25 mph (perhaps
locally higher) are forecast in the pre- and post-frontal
environment. Strong gusts will also occur. Given ERC values at or
above the 95th percentile due to anomalously warm/hot temperatures
and ongoing drought, Critical fire weather is possible even in areas
where RH will be in the 25-30% range. That said, locations ahead of
the front will likely be quite dry during the afternoon (10-20% can
be expected).
...Southwest...
A very dry airmass will be in place during the afternoon. RH in the
single digits is certainly possible, though the spatial extent is
not clear. 10-15% RH will be observed more broadly. Relatively weak
winds will limit the overall fire weather threat. 10-15 mph can be
expected in most places with perhaps some higher speeds within the
terrain. Elevated fire weather concerns are expected.
...Central Texas into parts of the Ozarks...
Dry and breezy conditions will occur ahead of the front.
Southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph are generally expected, though some
locally higher winds are possible. RH will drop to 20-30% by the
afternoon. Fuel receptiveness generally decreases with eastward
extent given rainfall in the last week. Even so, Elevated fire
weather is expected for these areas.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Valid 221700Z - 231200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...SOUTHWEST...AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...
No changes were made to the drawn area. Strong northerly winds will
remain behind the cold front through mid-afternoon before beginning
to weaken through sunset. Forecast guidance continues to indicate
that afternoon RHs will struggle to fall below 25-30% over Kansas,
where the front has already moved through. Very dry fuels combined
with sustained northerly winds of 20-25 mph will continue to promote
at least elevated fire weather conditions through the mid to late
afternoon hours in this area. Meanwhile, the cold front is expected
to pass through much of Oklahoma and the Trans Pecos region by
around 9PM CDT. Behind the front, sustained 15-25 mph northeast to
east winds can be expected across eastern New Mexico and portions of
bordering Texas.
..Stearns.. 03/22/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026/
...Synopsis...
A cold front will move southward into the southern Plains today. Dry
and breezy conditions are expected both ahead of and behind the
front.
...Texas Panhandle/South Plains/Rolling Plains into central
Oklahoma...
The fire environment will be somewhat complex today. The timing of
the cold front still appears to be during the mid/late morning in
the southern High Plains and early afternoon for central Oklahoma.
Winds will be westerly/southwesterly ahead of the front with a sharp
change to northerly behind it. Temperatures in the 80s/90s F are
possible ahead of the front. Even behind the front, areas of 70s F
are still possible in the High Plains. Winds of 20-25 mph (perhaps
locally higher) are forecast in the pre- and post-frontal
environment. Strong gusts will also occur. Given ERC values at or
above the 95th percentile due to anomalously warm/hot temperatures
and ongoing drought, Critical fire weather is possible even in areas
where RH will be in the 25-30% range. That said, locations ahead of
the front will likely be quite dry during the afternoon (10-20% can
be expected).
...Southwest...
A very dry airmass will be in place during the afternoon. RH in the
single digits is certainly possible, though the spatial extent is
not clear. 10-15% RH will be observed more broadly. Relatively weak
winds will limit the overall fire weather threat. 10-15 mph can be
expected in most places with perhaps some higher speeds within the
terrain. Elevated fire weather concerns are expected.
...Central Texas into parts of the Ozarks...
Dry and breezy conditions will occur ahead of the front.
Southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph are generally expected, though some
locally higher winds are possible. RH will drop to 20-30% by the
afternoon. Fuel receptiveness generally decreases with eastward
extent given rainfall in the last week. Even so, Elevated fire
weather is expected for these areas.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Valid 221300Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms appear likely this afternoon and
evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Large
to very large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats,
but a tornado or two may also occur.
...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...
Gradual amplification of mid/upper-level troughing will occur today
as a shortwave trough moves quickly eastward across the northern
Plains, Upper Midwest, and Great Lakes through the period. A belt of
enhanced mid/upper-level west-southwesterly flow will overspread
much of the OH Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic today, while
modest/shallow low-level moisture streams northward across these
regions ahead of a surface cold front. This front is expected to sag
slowly south-southeastward this afternoon and evening across the OH
Valley into PA, and will likely serve as a focus for strong to
severe convection later today.
The NAM remains on the aggressive side of short-term guidance with
the degree of low-level moisture present ahead of the front by mid
afternoon, with consensus of most other guidance suggesting that the
boundary layer will become well mixed with robust daytime heating
(surface dewpoints generally in the mid 50s). Even so, cool
mid-level temperatures and steepened lapse rates aloft will
contribute to the development of weak to moderate instability
(MLCAPE around 500-1500 J/kg in a narrow zone along/ahead of the
cold front). Favorable deep-layer shear (40-50+ kt) will foster
updraft organization, including the potential for supercells.
Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop by
19-22Z across eastern OH into western/central PA near the front, as
MLCIN should become minimal with northeastward extent across the
upper OH Valley by this time frame. This initially discrete
convection should quickly acquire supercell characteristics, and
large to very large hail (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) appears
to be the main threat given relatively long/straight hodographs at
mid/upper levels and the presence of steepened mid-level lapse
rates. This activity may tend to grow upscale as it moves
east-southeastward across PA through the evening, with an increasing
threat for scattered severe/damaging winds where low-level lapse
rates can become steepened with daytime heating.
Additional thunderstorms should eventually develop this evening
farther to the southwest across much of the OH Valley as the front
continues shifting south-southeastward. Much of this convection may
tend to become elevated along/north of the undercutting cold front.
But, it should still pose a threat for large hail, as moderate
MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear will favor supercell structures
initially. The Marginal and Slight Risks have been adjusted/shifted
northward a little to account for where robust convection will
likely develop this afternoon/evening. The tornado potential today
remains uncertain, as expectations for a well-mixed boundary layer
across the warm sector this afternoon will likely promote large
surface temperature-dewpoint spreads and high LCLs. Still, a tornado
or two appears possible along/ahead of the front, assuming
convection can remain surface based.
..Gleason/Kerr.. 03/22/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Valid 221300Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms appear likely this afternoon and
evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Large
to very large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats,
but a tornado or two may also occur.
...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...
Gradual amplification of mid/upper-level troughing will occur today
as a shortwave trough moves quickly eastward across the northern
Plains, Upper Midwest, and Great Lakes through the period. A belt of
enhanced mid/upper-level west-southwesterly flow will overspread
much of the OH Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic today, while
modest/shallow low-level moisture streams northward across these
regions ahead of a surface cold front. This front is expected to sag
slowly south-southeastward this afternoon and evening across the OH
Valley into PA, and will likely serve as a focus for strong to
severe convection later today.
The NAM remains on the aggressive side of short-term guidance with
the degree of low-level moisture present ahead of the front by mid
afternoon, with consensus of most other guidance suggesting that the
boundary layer will become well mixed with robust daytime heating
(surface dewpoints generally in the mid 50s). Even so, cool
mid-level temperatures and steepened lapse rates aloft will
contribute to the development of weak to moderate instability
(MLCAPE around 500-1500 J/kg in a narrow zone along/ahead of the
cold front). Favorable deep-layer shear (40-50+ kt) will foster
updraft organization, including the potential for supercells.
Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop by
19-22Z across eastern OH into western/central PA near the front, as
MLCIN should become minimal with northeastward extent across the
upper OH Valley by this time frame. This initially discrete
convection should quickly acquire supercell characteristics, and
large to very large hail (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) appears
to be the main threat given relatively long/straight hodographs at
mid/upper levels and the presence of steepened mid-level lapse
rates. This activity may tend to grow upscale as it moves
east-southeastward across PA through the evening, with an increasing
threat for scattered severe/damaging winds where low-level lapse
rates can become steepened with daytime heating.
Additional thunderstorms should eventually develop this evening
farther to the southwest across much of the OH Valley as the front
continues shifting south-southeastward. Much of this convection may
tend to become elevated along/north of the undercutting cold front.
But, it should still pose a threat for large hail, as moderate
MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear will favor supercell structures
initially. The Marginal and Slight Risks have been adjusted/shifted
northward a little to account for where robust convection will
likely develop this afternoon/evening. The tornado potential today
remains uncertain, as expectations for a well-mixed boundary layer
across the warm sector this afternoon will likely promote large
surface temperature-dewpoint spreads and high LCLs. Still, a tornado
or two appears possible along/ahead of the front, assuming
convection can remain surface based.
..Gleason/Kerr.. 03/22/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Valid 221300Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms appear likely this afternoon and
evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Large
to very large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats,
but a tornado or two may also occur.
...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...
Gradual amplification of mid/upper-level troughing will occur today
as a shortwave trough moves quickly eastward across the northern
Plains, Upper Midwest, and Great Lakes through the period. A belt of
enhanced mid/upper-level west-southwesterly flow will overspread
much of the OH Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic today, while
modest/shallow low-level moisture streams northward across these
regions ahead of a surface cold front. This front is expected to sag
slowly south-southeastward this afternoon and evening across the OH
Valley into PA, and will likely serve as a focus for strong to
severe convection later today.
The NAM remains on the aggressive side of short-term guidance with
the degree of low-level moisture present ahead of the front by mid
afternoon, with consensus of most other guidance suggesting that the
boundary layer will become well mixed with robust daytime heating
(surface dewpoints generally in the mid 50s). Even so, cool
mid-level temperatures and steepened lapse rates aloft will
contribute to the development of weak to moderate instability
(MLCAPE around 500-1500 J/kg in a narrow zone along/ahead of the
cold front). Favorable deep-layer shear (40-50+ kt) will foster
updraft organization, including the potential for supercells.
Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop by
19-22Z across eastern OH into western/central PA near the front, as
MLCIN should become minimal with northeastward extent across the
upper OH Valley by this time frame. This initially discrete
convection should quickly acquire supercell characteristics, and
large to very large hail (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) appears
to be the main threat given relatively long/straight hodographs at
mid/upper levels and the presence of steepened mid-level lapse
rates. This activity may tend to grow upscale as it moves
east-southeastward across PA through the evening, with an increasing
threat for scattered severe/damaging winds where low-level lapse
rates can become steepened with daytime heating.
Additional thunderstorms should eventually develop this evening
farther to the southwest across much of the OH Valley as the front
continues shifting south-southeastward. Much of this convection may
tend to become elevated along/north of the undercutting cold front.
But, it should still pose a threat for large hail, as moderate
MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear will favor supercell structures
initially. The Marginal and Slight Risks have been adjusted/shifted
northward a little to account for where robust convection will
likely develop this afternoon/evening. The tornado potential today
remains uncertain, as expectations for a well-mixed boundary layer
across the warm sector this afternoon will likely promote large
surface temperature-dewpoint spreads and high LCLs. Still, a tornado
or two appears possible along/ahead of the front, assuming
convection can remain surface based.
..Gleason/Kerr.. 03/22/2026
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5...
An upper-level ridge will move into the Rockies on Wednesday, as
northwesterly mid-level flow remains from the Great Plains to the
eastern U.S. On Thursday, the ridge will become less amplified as it
moves into the Great Plains. At the surface, low-level moisture is
forecast to return northward into the lower to mid Mississippi
Valley. Within this moist airmass, a pocket of moderate instability
is expected by late Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorm development
will be possible near a front along the northern edge of the
stronger instability from northeast Missouri east-northeastward into
north-central Ohio. Storms are expected to move east-southeastward
across the Ohio Valley on Thursday afternoon and evening. A severe
threat will be possible, but the magnitude of any potential threat
is still uncertain.
...Friday/Day 6 and Sunday/Day 8...
From Friday into Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move
southward from the mid Mississippi Valley to the central Gulf Coast.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along parts of the front
both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Weak instability should keep any
severe threat marginal.
On Sunday, the models are forecasting a dry airmass over most of the
continental U.S., suggesting the potential for storms is low.
Read more
