Storm Prediction Center

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5... An upper-level ridge will move into the Rockies on Wednesday, as northwesterly mid-level flow remains from the Great Plains to the eastern U.S. On Thursday, the ridge will become less amplified as it moves into the Great Plains. At the surface, low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Within this moist airmass, a pocket of moderate instability is expected by late Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible near a front along the northern edge of the stronger instability from northeast Missouri east-northeastward into north-central Ohio. Storms are expected to move east-southeastward across the Ohio Valley on Thursday afternoon and evening. A severe threat will be possible, but the magnitude of any potential threat is still uncertain. ...Friday/Day 6 and Sunday/Day 8... From Friday into Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move southward from the mid Mississippi Valley to the central Gulf Coast. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along parts of the front both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Weak instability should keep any severe threat marginal. On Sunday, the models are forecasting a dry airmass over most of the continental U.S., suggesting the potential for storms is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5... An upper-level ridge will move into the Rockies on Wednesday, as northwesterly mid-level flow remains from the Great Plains to the eastern U.S. On Thursday, the ridge will become less amplified as it moves into the Great Plains. At the surface, low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Within this moist airmass, a pocket of moderate instability is expected by late Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible near a front along the northern edge of the stronger instability from northeast Missouri east-northeastward into north-central Ohio. Storms are expected to move east-southeastward across the Ohio Valley on Thursday afternoon and evening. A severe threat will be possible, but the magnitude of any potential threat is still uncertain. ...Friday/Day 6 and Sunday/Day 8... From Friday into Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move southward from the mid Mississippi Valley to the central Gulf Coast. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along parts of the front both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Weak instability should keep any severe threat marginal. On Sunday, the models are forecasting a dry airmass over most of the continental U.S., suggesting the potential for storms is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5... An upper-level ridge will move into the Rockies on Wednesday, as northwesterly mid-level flow remains from the Great Plains to the eastern U.S. On Thursday, the ridge will become less amplified as it moves into the Great Plains. At the surface, low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Within this moist airmass, a pocket of moderate instability is expected by late Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible near a front along the northern edge of the stronger instability from northeast Missouri east-northeastward into north-central Ohio. Storms are expected to move east-southeastward across the Ohio Valley on Thursday afternoon and evening. A severe threat will be possible, but the magnitude of any potential threat is still uncertain. ...Friday/Day 6 and Sunday/Day 8... From Friday into Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move southward from the mid Mississippi Valley to the central Gulf Coast. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along parts of the front both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Weak instability should keep any severe threat marginal. On Sunday, the models are forecasting a dry airmass over most of the continental U.S., suggesting the potential for storms is low. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from far southeast Georgia to the Florida Peninsula. No severe threat is forecast. ...DISCUSSION... West-northwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place on Tuesday across much of the nation. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southward to near the central Gulf Coast and northern Florida. As surface heating and low-level convergence increase near the front, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible. No severe threat is expected over the continental U.S. on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 03/22/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from far southeast Georgia to the Florida Peninsula. No severe threat is forecast. ...DISCUSSION... West-northwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place on Tuesday across much of the nation. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southward to near the central Gulf Coast and northern Florida. As surface heating and low-level convergence increase near the front, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible. No severe threat is expected over the continental U.S. on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 03/22/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from far southeast Georgia to the Florida Peninsula. No severe threat is forecast. ...DISCUSSION... West-northwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place on Tuesday across much of the nation. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southward to near the central Gulf Coast and northern Florida. As surface heating and low-level convergence increase near the front, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible. No severe threat is expected over the continental U.S. on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 03/22/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... On Monday, an upper-level trough is expected to amplify across parts of the East. A cold front will push southward through the southern Appalachians. Dry southerly return flow will occur in the Plains. ...Piedmont... Dry and breezy downslope winds will occur behind the cold front during the afternoon. RH could drop as low as 25-30%. Winds of around 15 mph are possible, though locally higher speeds could occur. Some precipitation occurred late Saturday afternoon, especially in Upstate South Carolina. Locally elevated conditions remain possible in South Carolina, but confidence in sustained Elevated conditions is higher farther north where fuels should be relatively drier. ...Southwest into the Plains... A more nebulous surface pattern will generally keep winds weak in most areas. However, some enhanced southerly winds are possible, particularly in portions of the southern/central Plains. RH the Southwest will likely remain in the 10-20% range. RH in the Plains is less certain, but pockets around 20% could be observed. Without stronger surface winds, only locally elevated conditions are expected. ..Wendt.. 03/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... On Monday, an upper-level trough is expected to amplify across parts of the East. A cold front will push southward through the southern Appalachians. Dry southerly return flow will occur in the Plains. ...Piedmont... Dry and breezy downslope winds will occur behind the cold front during the afternoon. RH could drop as low as 25-30%. Winds of around 15 mph are possible, though locally higher speeds could occur. Some precipitation occurred late Saturday afternoon, especially in Upstate South Carolina. Locally elevated conditions remain possible in South Carolina, but confidence in sustained Elevated conditions is higher farther north where fuels should be relatively drier. ...Southwest into the Plains... A more nebulous surface pattern will generally keep winds weak in most areas. However, some enhanced southerly winds are possible, particularly in portions of the southern/central Plains. RH the Southwest will likely remain in the 10-20% range. RH in the Plains is less certain, but pockets around 20% could be observed. Without stronger surface winds, only locally elevated conditions are expected. ..Wendt.. 03/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... On Monday, an upper-level trough is expected to amplify across parts of the East. A cold front will push southward through the southern Appalachians. Dry southerly return flow will occur in the Plains. ...Piedmont... Dry and breezy downslope winds will occur behind the cold front during the afternoon. RH could drop as low as 25-30%. Winds of around 15 mph are possible, though locally higher speeds could occur. Some precipitation occurred late Saturday afternoon, especially in Upstate South Carolina. Locally elevated conditions remain possible in South Carolina, but confidence in sustained Elevated conditions is higher farther north where fuels should be relatively drier. ...Southwest into the Plains... A more nebulous surface pattern will generally keep winds weak in most areas. However, some enhanced southerly winds are possible, particularly in portions of the southern/central Plains. RH the Southwest will likely remain in the 10-20% range. RH in the Plains is less certain, but pockets around 20% could be observed. Without stronger surface winds, only locally elevated conditions are expected. ..Wendt.. 03/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...Synopsis... A cold front will move southward into the southern Plains today. Dry and breezy conditions are expected both ahead of and behind the front. ...Texas Panhandle/South Plains/Rolling Plains into central Oklahoma... The fire environment will be somewhat complex today. The timing of the cold front still appears to be during the mid/late morning in the southern High Plains and early afternoon for central Oklahoma. Winds will be westerly/southwesterly ahead of the front with a sharp change to northerly behind it. Temperatures in the 80s/90s F are possible ahead of the front. Even behind the front, areas of 70s F are still possible in the High Plains. Winds of 20-25 mph (perhaps locally higher) are forecast in the pre- and post-frontal environment. Strong gusts will also occur. Given ERC values at or above the 95th percentile due to anomalously warm/hot temperatures and ongoing drought, Critical fire weather is possible even in areas where RH will be in the 25-30% range. That said, locations ahead of the front will likely be quite dry during the afternoon (10-20% can be expected). ...Southwest... A very dry airmass will be in place during the afternoon. RH in the single digits is certainly possible, though the spatial extent is not clear. 10-15% RH will be observed more broadly. Relatively weak winds will limit the overall fire weather threat. 10-15 mph can be expected in most places with perhaps some higher speeds within the terrain. Elevated fire weather concerns are expected. ...Central Texas into parts of the Ozarks... Dry and breezy conditions will occur ahead of the front. Southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph are generally expected, though some locally higher winds are possible. RH will drop to 20-30% by the afternoon. Fuel receptiveness generally decreases with eastward extent given rainfall in the last week. Even so, Elevated fire weather is expected for these areas. ..Wendt.. 03/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...Synopsis... A cold front will move southward into the southern Plains today. Dry and breezy conditions are expected both ahead of and behind the front. ...Texas Panhandle/South Plains/Rolling Plains into central Oklahoma... The fire environment will be somewhat complex today. The timing of the cold front still appears to be during the mid/late morning in the southern High Plains and early afternoon for central Oklahoma. Winds will be westerly/southwesterly ahead of the front with a sharp change to northerly behind it. Temperatures in the 80s/90s F are possible ahead of the front. Even behind the front, areas of 70s F are still possible in the High Plains. Winds of 20-25 mph (perhaps locally higher) are forecast in the pre- and post-frontal environment. Strong gusts will also occur. Given ERC values at or above the 95th percentile due to anomalously warm/hot temperatures and ongoing drought, Critical fire weather is possible even in areas where RH will be in the 25-30% range. That said, locations ahead of the front will likely be quite dry during the afternoon (10-20% can be expected). ...Southwest... A very dry airmass will be in place during the afternoon. RH in the single digits is certainly possible, though the spatial extent is not clear. 10-15% RH will be observed more broadly. Relatively weak winds will limit the overall fire weather threat. 10-15 mph can be expected in most places with perhaps some higher speeds within the terrain. Elevated fire weather concerns are expected. ...Central Texas into parts of the Ozarks... Dry and breezy conditions will occur ahead of the front. Southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph are generally expected, though some locally higher winds are possible. RH will drop to 20-30% by the afternoon. Fuel receptiveness generally decreases with eastward extent given rainfall in the last week. Even so, Elevated fire weather is expected for these areas. ..Wendt.. 03/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...Synopsis... A cold front will move southward into the southern Plains today. Dry and breezy conditions are expected both ahead of and behind the front. ...Texas Panhandle/South Plains/Rolling Plains into central Oklahoma... The fire environment will be somewhat complex today. The timing of the cold front still appears to be during the mid/late morning in the southern High Plains and early afternoon for central Oklahoma. Winds will be westerly/southwesterly ahead of the front with a sharp change to northerly behind it. Temperatures in the 80s/90s F are possible ahead of the front. Even behind the front, areas of 70s F are still possible in the High Plains. Winds of 20-25 mph (perhaps locally higher) are forecast in the pre- and post-frontal environment. Strong gusts will also occur. Given ERC values at or above the 95th percentile due to anomalously warm/hot temperatures and ongoing drought, Critical fire weather is possible even in areas where RH will be in the 25-30% range. That said, locations ahead of the front will likely be quite dry during the afternoon (10-20% can be expected). ...Southwest... A very dry airmass will be in place during the afternoon. RH in the single digits is certainly possible, though the spatial extent is not clear. 10-15% RH will be observed more broadly. Relatively weak winds will limit the overall fire weather threat. 10-15 mph can be expected in most places with perhaps some higher speeds within the terrain. Elevated fire weather concerns are expected. ...Central Texas into parts of the Ozarks... Dry and breezy conditions will occur ahead of the front. Southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph are generally expected, though some locally higher winds are possible. RH will drop to 20-30% by the afternoon. Fuel receptiveness generally decreases with eastward extent given rainfall in the last week. Even so, Elevated fire weather is expected for these areas. ..Wendt.. 03/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Monday across parts of the Carolinas and Georgia. ...Carolinas/Georgia... An upper-level trough will move eastward to the Eastern Seaboard on Monday, as a cold front advances southward through the Carolinas. Surface dewpoints in the lower 60s F ahead of the front will contribute to weak destabilization. As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence increases along the front, isolated thunderstorms are expected to form. These cells will move southeastward toward the coast during the afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates may be enough for a marginal wind-damage threat. ..Broyles.. 03/22/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Monday across parts of the Carolinas and Georgia. ...Carolinas/Georgia... An upper-level trough will move eastward to the Eastern Seaboard on Monday, as a cold front advances southward through the Carolinas. Surface dewpoints in the lower 60s F ahead of the front will contribute to weak destabilization. As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence increases along the front, isolated thunderstorms are expected to form. These cells will move southeastward toward the coast during the afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates may be enough for a marginal wind-damage threat. ..Broyles.. 03/22/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Monday across parts of the Carolinas and Georgia. ...Carolinas/Georgia... An upper-level trough will move eastward to the Eastern Seaboard on Monday, as a cold front advances southward through the Carolinas. Surface dewpoints in the lower 60s F ahead of the front will contribute to weak destabilization. As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence increases along the front, isolated thunderstorms are expected to form. These cells will move southeastward toward the coast during the afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates may be enough for a marginal wind-damage threat. ..Broyles.. 03/22/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a conditional tornado threat are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the northern Mid Atlantic region. ... Overview ... A weak shortwave trough will gradually amplify today as fast west-northwesterly flow translates across the Great Lakes into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front will push southward through the Ohio Valley, with a series of weak frontal waves moving eastward into the Mid-Atlantic. ... Ohio Valley into parts of the Mid-Atlantic ... Favorable deep-layer shear will be in place across the area as relatively steep midlevel lapse rates advect into the region, originating within an unseasonably hot and well-mixed airmass across the Southwest and central US. The key uncertainty regarding severe potential will be how aggressively moisture returns. Strong antecedent heating and mixing upstream may limit moistening across the Ohio Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic, but relatively cool midlevel temperatures should still support moderate buoyancy. Storms are expected to initiate along and ahead of the surface front across eastern Ohio and Pennsylvania, where modest warm advection and a weakening cap favor development. Moderate instability combined with the favorable wind profile will support a supercell threat. Large hail -- potentially greater than golf balls -- will be possible with any sustained supercell. Damaging winds are also possible, particularly where surface heating is maximized and steep low-level lapse rates can develop. With time, the surging cold front should undercut thunderstorms, limiting the potential for a more organized, widespread damaging wind event. The low-level wind field will support some tornado potential before thunderstorms are undercut, with the tornado threat tied closely to how aggressively the boundary layer moisture returns. An additional round of convection is expected to develop during the late afternoon into the overnight hours as the front surges south-southeastward. This activity is likely to be post-frontal and elevated in nature, but given strong cloud-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates, severe hail will still be possible with these later storms. ..Marsh.. 03/22/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a conditional tornado threat are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the northern Mid Atlantic region. ... Overview ... A weak shortwave trough will gradually amplify today as fast west-northwesterly flow translates across the Great Lakes into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front will push southward through the Ohio Valley, with a series of weak frontal waves moving eastward into the Mid-Atlantic. ... Ohio Valley into parts of the Mid-Atlantic ... Favorable deep-layer shear will be in place across the area as relatively steep midlevel lapse rates advect into the region, originating within an unseasonably hot and well-mixed airmass across the Southwest and central US. The key uncertainty regarding severe potential will be how aggressively moisture returns. Strong antecedent heating and mixing upstream may limit moistening across the Ohio Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic, but relatively cool midlevel temperatures should still support moderate buoyancy. Storms are expected to initiate along and ahead of the surface front across eastern Ohio and Pennsylvania, where modest warm advection and a weakening cap favor development. Moderate instability combined with the favorable wind profile will support a supercell threat. Large hail -- potentially greater than golf balls -- will be possible with any sustained supercell. Damaging winds are also possible, particularly where surface heating is maximized and steep low-level lapse rates can develop. With time, the surging cold front should undercut thunderstorms, limiting the potential for a more organized, widespread damaging wind event. The low-level wind field will support some tornado potential before thunderstorms are undercut, with the tornado threat tied closely to how aggressively the boundary layer moisture returns. An additional round of convection is expected to develop during the late afternoon into the overnight hours as the front surges south-southeastward. This activity is likely to be post-frontal and elevated in nature, but given strong cloud-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates, severe hail will still be possible with these later storms. ..Marsh.. 03/22/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a conditional tornado threat are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the northern Mid Atlantic region. ... Overview ... A weak shortwave trough will gradually amplify today as fast west-northwesterly flow translates across the Great Lakes into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front will push southward through the Ohio Valley, with a series of weak frontal waves moving eastward into the Mid-Atlantic. ... Ohio Valley into parts of the Mid-Atlantic ... Favorable deep-layer shear will be in place across the area as relatively steep midlevel lapse rates advect into the region, originating within an unseasonably hot and well-mixed airmass across the Southwest and central US. The key uncertainty regarding severe potential will be how aggressively moisture returns. Strong antecedent heating and mixing upstream may limit moistening across the Ohio Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic, but relatively cool midlevel temperatures should still support moderate buoyancy. Storms are expected to initiate along and ahead of the surface front across eastern Ohio and Pennsylvania, where modest warm advection and a weakening cap favor development. Moderate instability combined with the favorable wind profile will support a supercell threat. Large hail -- potentially greater than golf balls -- will be possible with any sustained supercell. Damaging winds are also possible, particularly where surface heating is maximized and steep low-level lapse rates can develop. With time, the surging cold front should undercut thunderstorms, limiting the potential for a more organized, widespread damaging wind event. The low-level wind field will support some tornado potential before thunderstorms are undercut, with the tornado threat tied closely to how aggressively the boundary layer moisture returns. An additional round of convection is expected to develop during the late afternoon into the overnight hours as the front surges south-southeastward. This activity is likely to be post-frontal and elevated in nature, but given strong cloud-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates, severe hail will still be possible with these later storms. ..Marsh.. 03/22/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Ongoing thunderstorms across the southern Appalachians will continue to pose a threat for lightning into the Carolinas this evening. ... 01Z Update ... Showers and thunderstorms associated with a subtle mid-level trough will continue to move across the southern Appalachians into the Carolinas this evening. Recent mesoanalysis suggests deep-layer shear is around 30 knots and most-unstable CAPE up to 500 J/kg. However, ongoing convection has struggled to maintain robust updrafts within this environment. Given weak forcing for ascent, increasing convective inhibition, and decreasing instability this evening, any severe wind or hail potential should remain less than 5% coverage. Thunderstorms should dissipate later this evening into the early morning. ..Marsh.. 03/22/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Ongoing thunderstorms across the southern Appalachians will continue to pose a threat for lightning into the Carolinas this evening. ... 01Z Update ... Showers and thunderstorms associated with a subtle mid-level trough will continue to move across the southern Appalachians into the Carolinas this evening. Recent mesoanalysis suggests deep-layer shear is around 30 knots and most-unstable CAPE up to 500 J/kg. However, ongoing convection has struggled to maintain robust updrafts within this environment. Given weak forcing for ascent, increasing convective inhibition, and decreasing instability this evening, any severe wind or hail potential should remain less than 5% coverage. Thunderstorms should dissipate later this evening into the early morning. ..Marsh.. 03/22/2026 Read more