Storm Prediction Center

WW 72 SEVERE TSTM MD OH PA WV 221940Z - 230200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 72 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 340 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Maryland Far Eastern Ohio Western and Central Pennsylvania Northern West Virginia * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this afternoon in the vicinity of a cold front moving southeastward across the area. Environmental conditions favor initially discrete storms, with some supercells possible. Large to isolated very large hail is the primary risk with any supercells. A trend towards a more linear mode is anticipated with time, with the primary hazard transitioning to strong gusts. A tornado or two is also possible, but limited low-level moisture and high LCLs should keep the overall tornado probability low. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west of Wheeling WV to 35 miles east northeast of Harrisburg PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28035. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0074 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE MDH TO 5 NW SLO TO 30 WSW MIE. ..GRAMS..03/23/26 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...IND...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC025-033-047-059-065-079-081-101-159-165-185-191-193-230240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAWFORD EDWARDS GALLATIN HAMILTON JASPER JEFFERSON LAWRENCE RICHLAND SALINE WABASH WAYNE WHITE INC005-013-019-021-025-027-031-035-037-043-051-055-057-059-061- 063-065-071-077-079-081-083-093-095-097-101-105-109-117-119-123- 125-129-133-135-139-143-145-147-153-163-173-175-230240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BROWN CLARK CLAY CRAWFORD DAVIESS DECATUR DELAWARE DUBOIS FLOYD GIBSON GREENE HAMILTON HANCOCK HARRISON HENDRICKS HENRY JACKSON Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms should continue this evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Large to very large hail should be the main threat, although an isolated strong wind gust remains possible. ... 01Z Update ... Showers and thunderstorms continue across the Ohio Valley into the northern Mid-Atlantic. These storms are being aided by increasing large-scale ascent associated with a gradually amplifying midlevel trough and vertical circulations associated with a south-southeastward moving cold front. The anafrontal nature of the cold front is supporting thunderstorm development/intensification on the cold side of the boundary, where surface temperatures quickly fall into the 40Fs. Most unstable CAPE between 500-1500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates ranging from 6 C/km across Pennsylvania to 8.5 C/km across southern Indiana, and strong cloud-layer shear will support a continued hail threat into the evening hours. The overall wind potential has diminished across most of the area as low-levels stabilize. However, given increasing storm coverage an isolated strong-to-severe wind report may still be possible. The most likely area for this is across far southeast Illinois into southwest Indiana where better midlevel lapse rates and greatest storm coverage coincide. For additional information please see Mesoscale Discussion #287. ..Marsh.. 03/23/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms should continue this evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Large to very large hail should be the main threat, although an isolated strong wind gust remains possible. ... 01Z Update ... Showers and thunderstorms continue across the Ohio Valley into the northern Mid-Atlantic. These storms are being aided by increasing large-scale ascent associated with a gradually amplifying midlevel trough and vertical circulations associated with a south-southeastward moving cold front. The anafrontal nature of the cold front is supporting thunderstorm development/intensification on the cold side of the boundary, where surface temperatures quickly fall into the 40Fs. Most unstable CAPE between 500-1500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates ranging from 6 C/km across Pennsylvania to 8.5 C/km across southern Indiana, and strong cloud-layer shear will support a continued hail threat into the evening hours. The overall wind potential has diminished across most of the area as low-levels stabilize. However, given increasing storm coverage an isolated strong-to-severe wind report may still be possible. The most likely area for this is across far southeast Illinois into southwest Indiana where better midlevel lapse rates and greatest storm coverage coincide. For additional information please see Mesoscale Discussion #287. ..Marsh.. 03/23/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms should continue this evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Large to very large hail should be the main threat, although an isolated strong wind gust remains possible. ... 01Z Update ... Showers and thunderstorms continue across the Ohio Valley into the northern Mid-Atlantic. These storms are being aided by increasing large-scale ascent associated with a gradually amplifying midlevel trough and vertical circulations associated with a south-southeastward moving cold front. The anafrontal nature of the cold front is supporting thunderstorm development/intensification on the cold side of the boundary, where surface temperatures quickly fall into the 40Fs. Most unstable CAPE between 500-1500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates ranging from 6 C/km across Pennsylvania to 8.5 C/km across southern Indiana, and strong cloud-layer shear will support a continued hail threat into the evening hours. The overall wind potential has diminished across most of the area as low-levels stabilize. However, given increasing storm coverage an isolated strong-to-severe wind report may still be possible. The most likely area for this is across far southeast Illinois into southwest Indiana where better midlevel lapse rates and greatest storm coverage coincide. For additional information please see Mesoscale Discussion #287. ..Marsh.. 03/23/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms should continue this evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Large to very large hail should be the main threat, although an isolated strong wind gust remains possible. ... 01Z Update ... Showers and thunderstorms continue across the Ohio Valley into the northern Mid-Atlantic. These storms are being aided by increasing large-scale ascent associated with a gradually amplifying midlevel trough and vertical circulations associated with a south-southeastward moving cold front. The anafrontal nature of the cold front is supporting thunderstorm development/intensification on the cold side of the boundary, where surface temperatures quickly fall into the 40Fs. Most unstable CAPE between 500-1500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates ranging from 6 C/km across Pennsylvania to 8.5 C/km across southern Indiana, and strong cloud-layer shear will support a continued hail threat into the evening hours. The overall wind potential has diminished across most of the area as low-levels stabilize. However, given increasing storm coverage an isolated strong-to-severe wind report may still be possible. The most likely area for this is across far southeast Illinois into southwest Indiana where better midlevel lapse rates and greatest storm coverage coincide. For additional information please see Mesoscale Discussion #287. ..Marsh.. 03/23/2026 Read more

MD 0287 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 73...74... FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PARTS OF IL/IN/OH
Mesoscale Discussion 0287 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0720 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Areas affected...central/southern parts of IL/IN/OH Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 73...74... Valid 230020Z - 230145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 73, 74 continues. SUMMARY...Severe hail should be the primary hazard with elevated thunderstorms spreading east-southeast into late evening in a portion of the Midwest. DISCUSSION...Convective development has largely been sustained about 80 miles north of a southeastward-moving cold front approaching the OH River. This arc of elevated storms was rooted near 750 mb per ACARS data near IND and appears likely to be the primary focus for severe potential through late evening. The cores across central IN to central OH have had generally marginal severe hail MRMS signatures with several semi-discrete structures. Ample speed shear through the cloud-bearing layer will offer potential for updrafts capable of sporadic severe hail up to around golf-ball size, including left and right splits. Farther south on the front, attempts at surface-based storms appear to have largely failed within persistent MLCIN and weak large-scale ascent outside of the undercutting boundary. With nocturnal boundary-layer cooling ahead of the front, it seems unlikely that additional development will occur. Current elevated storms across south-central IL will probably be the back edge of sustained severe potential as they shift east-southeastward. ..Grams.. 03/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX... LAT...LON 40968294 40868231 39998225 39558231 39128300 38938542 38278775 38228833 38478867 39568852 40428684 40968294 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0074 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE MDH TO 25 WSW MVN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0287. ..GRAMS..03/23/26 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...IND...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC023-025-029-033-035-045-047-049-055-059-065-079-081-101-159- 165-185-191-193-230140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CLAY COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND EDGAR EDWARDS EFFINGHAM FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON JASPER JEFFERSON LAWRENCE RICHLAND SALINE WABASH WAYNE WHITE INC005-011-013-019-021-025-027-031-035-037-043-051-055-057-059- 061-063-065-071-077-079-081-083-093-095-097-101-105-107-109-117- 119-121-123-125-129-133-135-139-143-145-147-153-159-163-165-167- 173-175-230140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0073 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 73 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0287. ..GRAMS..03/23/26 ATTN...WFO...ILN...CLE...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 73 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC029-041-047-115-137-155-161-177-230140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DEARBORN FAYETTE FRANKLIN OHIO RIPLEY SWITZERLAND UNION WAYNE KYC015-037-117-230140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE CAMPBELL KENTON OHC001-005-009-011-015-017-021-023-025-027-033-037-041-045-047- 049-057-061-063-065-071-073-075-079-083-089-091-097-099-101-103- 105-107-109-113-115-117-127-129-131-133-135-139-141-145-149-151- 153-159-163-165-167-169-175-230140- OH Read more

MD 0286 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 72... FOR UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 0286 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0536 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Areas affected...Upper Ohio Valley into northern Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 72... Valid 222236Z - 230030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 72 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and damaging wind potential will continue at least into early evening. Storms moving east will likely weaken with time. The strongest storms are more probable along the cold front moving south. DISCUSSION...Scattered convection continues within WW 72 late this afternoon. The strongest storms are currently located in southeastern Ohio where steeper low/mid-level lapse rates exist. Anafrontal convection also is occurring in central Pennsylvania and is moving eastward. These storms have shown a general weakening trend as they move into a cooler, less unstable airmass. Additional storms may form along/behind the front as very subtle forcing for ascent approaches the region. Regional VAD data shows strong deep-layer shear with a relatively straight hodograph. The strongest storms will split as is currently occurring in southeast Ohio/northern West Virginia Panhandle. Mid-level lapse rates remain steep enough for isolated large hail. Low-level lapse rates are still steep in far southern Pennsylvania into adjacent West Virginia/Maryland. There, wind damage will remain possible into early evening. Environmentally speaking, a downstream watch to the east appears unlikely this evening. Local extensions could occur along the southern flank should strong/severe convection persist. ..Wendt.. 03/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE... LAT...LON 39347860 39218052 39368112 39758200 39998213 40228206 40868126 41228070 41467982 41417884 41247809 40557626 39857618 39527709 39347860 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0072 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 72 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..03/23/26 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 72 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC001-023-043-230140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY GARRETT WASHINGTON OHC013-019-031-059-067-081-111-119-121-157-230140- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELMONT CARROLL COSHOCTON GUERNSEY HARRISON JEFFERSON MONROE MUSKINGUM NOBLE TUSCARAWAS PAC003-005-007-009-013-019-021-027-033-035-041-043-051-055-057- 059-061-063-067-087-093-097-099-109-111-119-125-129-230140- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER Read more

WW 0073 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0073 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0285 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST IL...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IN...AND SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OH
Mesoscale Discussion 0285 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Areas affected...Southeast IL...southern/central IN...and southwest/central OH Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 222050Z - 222315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The potential for severe storms capable of producing severe hail and locally damaging gusts should increase later this afternoon into the evening. While timing is uncertain, a watch may eventually be needed for parts of the area. DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows an ENE/WSW-oriented cold front moving quickly southward across central OH, IN, and IL. While surface temperatures have warmed into the middle/upper 80s amid middle/upper 50s to near 60 dewpoints ahead of the front, the latest ACARS soundings suggest that the low-levels remain relatively dry, and a lack of pre-frontal boundary-layer cumulus also confirms this. As a result, confidence in surface-based storm development ahead of the front is low. The one exception is in eastern/central OH, where isolated thunderstorms are evolving along the front and could pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds over the next hour or two. Nevertheless, as large-scale ascent preceding a midlevel wave overspreads the region later this afternoon into the evening, anafrontal convection is expected westward into western OH, southern/central IN, and southeastern IL. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates atop the frontal surface and around 50 kt of effective shear should still support storm organization. Severe hail will be possible with any elevated supercells that can evolve, especially in the earlier stages of convective development. However, deep-layer westerly flow may tend to promote upscale growth into clusters/lines. While the expected elevated nature of these storms casts uncertainty on the damaging-wind risk, the steep lapse rates and antecedent heating of the pre-convective boundary layer could support damaging winds with the upscale-growing activity. While timing of storm initiation is a bit uncertain, a watch may eventually be needed for parts of the area. ..Weinman/Mosier.. 03/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH... ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 38918901 39358897 39698852 39958788 40278651 40518445 40618321 40488267 40378241 39998216 39448213 39118241 38868299 38638401 38438507 38278620 38088778 38188825 38488879 38918901 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 73 SEVERE TSTM IN KY OH 222140Z - 230400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 73 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 540 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Indiana Far Northern Kentucky Ohio * Effective this Sunday afternoon from 540 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms will likely continue to develop near the front, with additional development expected farther north this evening along/north of the front, with large hail and damaging winds possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west southwest of Dayton OH to 15 miles east northeast of Zanesville OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 72... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0072 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 72 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..03/22/26 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 72 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC001-023-043-222240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY GARRETT WASHINGTON OHC013-019-031-059-067-081-111-119-121-157-222240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELMONT CARROLL COSHOCTON GUERNSEY HARRISON JEFFERSON MONROE MUSKINGUM NOBLE TUSCARAWAS PAC003-005-007-009-013-019-021-027-033-035-041-043-051-055-057- 059-061-063-067-087-093-097-099-109-111-119-125-129-222240- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER Read more

WW 72 SEVERE TSTM MD OH PA WV 221940Z - 230200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 72 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 340 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Maryland Far Eastern Ohio Western and Central Pennsylvania Northern West Virginia * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this afternoon in the vicinity of a cold front moving southeastward across the area. Environmental conditions favor initially discrete storms, with some supercells possible. Large to isolated very large hail is the primary risk with any supercells. A trend towards a more linear mode is anticipated with time, with the primary hazard transitioning to strong gusts. A tornado or two is also possible, but limited low-level moisture and high LCLs should keep the overall tornado probability low. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west of Wheeling WV to 35 miles east northeast of Harrisburg PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28035. ...Mosier Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z An upper level ridge continues to build back across the western US on Day 3/Tuesday. Although less intense and shorter in duration than the recent heatwave, this will once again likely break daily high temperature records over much of the southern two-thirds of the western US. On Day 4/Wednesday, a potent upper-level trough approaches the Pacific Northwest and will significantly dampen the amplitude of the ridge as it moves across the northern CONUS border on Day 5/Thursday. The jet max will exit the Eastern Seaboard on Day 6/Friday. While some differences exist among various forecast guidance, the western US upper-level ridge will likely build back by next weekend. Forecast guidance suggests that this ridge will be nudged eastward by a robust trough moving across the northern Pacific, but the timing and speed of this movement is uncertain at this point. On Day 4/Wednesday, as the ridge over the western US breaks down, warm surface temperatures will support a robust boundary layer, mixing strong westerly winds associated with the passing upper-level jet to the surface. Forecast guidance indicates sustained west winds of 20-30 mph will combine with RHs of 10-20% at the surface for several hours during the afternoon. This warrants a 70% area for much of east-central Wyoming while 40% probabilities cover portions of northern Colorado, extreme northeast Utah, extreme southwest South Dakota, and much of the Nebraska Panhandle where surface winds will be slightly weaker. On Day 5/Thursday, a cold front, supported by the aforementioned passing upper-level trough, is expected to surge south across the central and southern Plains. The 40% probability area was expanded slightly east due to forecast guidance advecting drier conditions farther across the southern Plains. While uncertainty in the timing and evolution of this front will likely necessitate adjustments to the risk area over the coming days, the southern High Plains currently stands the best chance to experience critical fire weather conditions with the frontal passage. On Day 7/Saturday, northerly winds behind the cold front passing through the Southeast CONUS late on Day 6/Friday could produce downslope flow, contributing to lower RHs and gusty surface winds once again. However, precipitation between now and then is likely across portions of the area. Where rainfall may accumulate will likely dictate the extent of any fire weather concerns over this region. No areas have been introduced, but this region will be watched over the coming days. ..Stearns.. 03/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z An upper level ridge continues to build back across the western US on Day 3/Tuesday. Although less intense and shorter in duration than the recent heatwave, this will once again likely break daily high temperature records over much of the southern two-thirds of the western US. On Day 4/Wednesday, a potent upper-level trough approaches the Pacific Northwest and will significantly dampen the amplitude of the ridge as it moves across the northern CONUS border on Day 5/Thursday. The jet max will exit the Eastern Seaboard on Day 6/Friday. While some differences exist among various forecast guidance, the western US upper-level ridge will likely build back by next weekend. Forecast guidance suggests that this ridge will be nudged eastward by a robust trough moving across the northern Pacific, but the timing and speed of this movement is uncertain at this point. On Day 4/Wednesday, as the ridge over the western US breaks down, warm surface temperatures will support a robust boundary layer, mixing strong westerly winds associated with the passing upper-level jet to the surface. Forecast guidance indicates sustained west winds of 20-30 mph will combine with RHs of 10-20% at the surface for several hours during the afternoon. This warrants a 70% area for much of east-central Wyoming while 40% probabilities cover portions of northern Colorado, extreme northeast Utah, extreme southwest South Dakota, and much of the Nebraska Panhandle where surface winds will be slightly weaker. On Day 5/Thursday, a cold front, supported by the aforementioned passing upper-level trough, is expected to surge south across the central and southern Plains. The 40% probability area was expanded slightly east due to forecast guidance advecting drier conditions farther across the southern Plains. While uncertainty in the timing and evolution of this front will likely necessitate adjustments to the risk area over the coming days, the southern High Plains currently stands the best chance to experience critical fire weather conditions with the frontal passage. On Day 7/Saturday, northerly winds behind the cold front passing through the Southeast CONUS late on Day 6/Friday could produce downslope flow, contributing to lower RHs and gusty surface winds once again. However, precipitation between now and then is likely across portions of the area. Where rainfall may accumulate will likely dictate the extent of any fire weather concerns over this region. No areas have been introduced, but this region will be watched over the coming days. ..Stearns.. 03/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z An upper level ridge continues to build back across the western US on Day 3/Tuesday. Although less intense and shorter in duration than the recent heatwave, this will once again likely break daily high temperature records over much of the southern two-thirds of the western US. On Day 4/Wednesday, a potent upper-level trough approaches the Pacific Northwest and will significantly dampen the amplitude of the ridge as it moves across the northern CONUS border on Day 5/Thursday. The jet max will exit the Eastern Seaboard on Day 6/Friday. While some differences exist among various forecast guidance, the western US upper-level ridge will likely build back by next weekend. Forecast guidance suggests that this ridge will be nudged eastward by a robust trough moving across the northern Pacific, but the timing and speed of this movement is uncertain at this point. On Day 4/Wednesday, as the ridge over the western US breaks down, warm surface temperatures will support a robust boundary layer, mixing strong westerly winds associated with the passing upper-level jet to the surface. Forecast guidance indicates sustained west winds of 20-30 mph will combine with RHs of 10-20% at the surface for several hours during the afternoon. This warrants a 70% area for much of east-central Wyoming while 40% probabilities cover portions of northern Colorado, extreme northeast Utah, extreme southwest South Dakota, and much of the Nebraska Panhandle where surface winds will be slightly weaker. On Day 5/Thursday, a cold front, supported by the aforementioned passing upper-level trough, is expected to surge south across the central and southern Plains. The 40% probability area was expanded slightly east due to forecast guidance advecting drier conditions farther across the southern Plains. While uncertainty in the timing and evolution of this front will likely necessitate adjustments to the risk area over the coming days, the southern High Plains currently stands the best chance to experience critical fire weather conditions with the frontal passage. On Day 7/Saturday, northerly winds behind the cold front passing through the Southeast CONUS late on Day 6/Friday could produce downslope flow, contributing to lower RHs and gusty surface winds once again. However, precipitation between now and then is likely across portions of the area. Where rainfall may accumulate will likely dictate the extent of any fire weather concerns over this region. No areas have been introduced, but this region will be watched over the coming days. ..Stearns.. 03/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR EASTERN OHIO...THE WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE...AND PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear likely this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, particularly from far eastern Ohio into central Pennsylvania. Large to very large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats, but a tornado or two may also occur. ...20z Update - Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic... Overall the previous forecast remains on track. Only minor adjustments were made to the southern extent of the level 2 of 5 (Slight) risk area in KY. This adjustment was made based on latest trends in timing/intensity derived from CAMs and RAP forecast soundings across the southwest extent of the severe risk area. While limited low-level moisture is expected to temper instability across the region, the 18z RAOB from PIT showed the presence of very steep mid and low-level lapse rates amid strong unidirectional vertical wind profiles. This environment should support scattered damaging gusts, and large to very large hail from any initially discrete supercell structures. For more details regarding short term severe potential, reference MCD 284 and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 72. ..Leitman.. 03/22/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026/ ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... Early-morning soundings reveal a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates (i.e. greater than 8 deg C per km from 700 to 500 mb) extending from the southern Plains northeastward into the Upper OH Valley. This plume of steeper lapse rates is largely oriented along and west of a cold front that extends from a low in south-central KS to another low in western NY. The airmass preceding this front is seasonally warm and moist, with temperatures in the 70s and dewpoints in the 50s across much of the OH Valley. The expectation is for continued airmass modification today as moisture advects northeastward. However, this moistening will be offset by strong mixing, with dewpoints likely ranging from the upper 50s across the Lower OH Valley into the low 50s across western/central PA. This low-level moisture, combined with temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80s, should result in an erosion of surface-based convective inhibition ahead of the front from eastern OH through central PA. Additionally, given the steep mid-level lapse rates in place, weak instability (MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg) is expected to develop ahead of the front. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop by 19-21Z from eastern OH into western/central PA along and just ahead the front, forced by low-level convergence along the front and in the vicinity of a weak surface low moving across the region. An initially discrete mode is anticipated, with strong deep-layer shear favoring the development of supercells. Long/straight hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates suggest that large to very large hail (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) is the main threat with these supercells. High LCLs and steep low-level lapse rates also support the potential for strong downbursts as well as trend towards upscale growth and a more linear mode as it moves east-southeastward across PA through the evening. Primary severe threat should transition from hail to damaging gusts throughout the evening. Given the high LCLs and limited low-level moisture, the tornado risk appears low, although not zero given the supercell mode anticipated. Farther west across the low to mid OH Valley, thunderstorm initiation should occur a bit later (i.e. closer to 00Z) as modest ascent attendant to a low-amplitude shortwave trough augments low-level convergence along the front. Much of this convection may tend to become elevated along/north of the undercutting cold front. Even so, steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear will support a continued risk for large hail. Some isolated very large hail is possible with the initially more cellular development across southern IL, central IN, and west-central OH. A trend towards more linear structures is expected with time, and warm/dry low to mid-levels could still support some strong gusts despite the elevated storm structures. Read more