Storm Prediction Center

MD 0923 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0923 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0507 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Areas affected...Southwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 312207Z - 010000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across portions of southwest Texas. The most likely hazard will be strong gusty outflow winds with collapsing updrafts, but a few large hail reports may be possible with the strongest updrafts. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...Strong diurnal heating and weak large-scale ascent from a subtle low-latitude short-wave trough have combined to support thunderstorm development this afternoon across portions of southwest Texas. The thermodynamic environment across the area is characterized by MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg, with most storms developing near the higher MUCAPE values across the eastern portion of the highlighted area. Kinematically speaking, the overall environment is rather unfavorable for organized, sustained severe thunderstorms, with deep-layer shear generally less than 25 knots. Given storm development within an environment an uncapped environment with MUCAPE values approaching 2000 J/kg and steep low- and mid-level lapse rates, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. The degree of instability and steep-mid-level lapse rates suggests the potential for marginally severe hail with the strongest updraft cores, and the steep low-level lapse rates should support strong thunderstorm outflows, especially with any collapsing core. The overall severe threat should remain fairly isolated, thus a watch is not anticipated. ..Marsh/Guyer.. 05/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 29370422 31050430 31620404 32120372 32320296 32140216 31690148 31390131 29730193 29750227 29640258 29200284 28900306 28910333 29180393 29370422 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0924 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0924 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0518 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Areas affected...Central to southeast Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 312218Z - 010015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Pulse convection developing across central into southeastern Arkansas is showing signs of fully realizing very high buoyancy across the region. Strong to severe wet downbursts appear possible, but watch issuance will not be needed. DISCUSSION...Convection has been percolating across central to southeastern AR over the past couple of hours, but recent MRMS data shows echo tops beginning to approach 60 kft - a notable increase compared to prior convection. Intense updraft pulses are concurrently noted in GOES 1-minute imagery and suggests that convection is beginning to fully realize the highly buoyant environment (MLCAPE upwards of 4000 J/kg) as temperatures reach their daytime highs in the low 90s. Observed dewpoint depressions and recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates also suggest low-level lapse rates are approaching 8 C/km, which when combined with the ample buoyancy will support wet downbursts capable of producing strong to severe gusts. Very weak flow through much of the column (as noted in the KLZK VWP) will promote short-lived pulse convection, though additional thunderstorm development along any outflow boundaries appears probable given the very buoyant environment. ..Moore/Guyer.. 05/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 35469214 35179143 34779108 34429099 33979104 33569133 33269180 33159222 33209263 33449294 33769316 34159322 34639317 35099297 35409259 35459224 35469214 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0920 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN SD AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTHEAST NE...NORTHWEST IA...AND SOUTHWEST MN
Mesoscale Discussion 0920 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Areas affected...Eastern SD and adjacent parts of northeast NE...northwest IA...and southwest MN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 312020Z - 312245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms will be possible from late afternoon into early evening. DISCUSSION...Cumulus has been gradually deepening this afternoon near a surface confluence zone across eastern SD, with recent attempts at convective initiation near Yankton. Diurnal heating to the south and west of substantial mid/upper-level cloudiness has allowed for moderate destabilization, with MLCAPE increasing above 1500 J/kg where stronger heating has occurred. This area of stronger heating is occurring underneath substantial midlevel drying in the wake of a midlevel shortwave passage, and potential for updrafts to mature within the midlevel dry slot is uncertain through the afternoon. Eventually, ascent associated with an upstream midlevel shortwave trough over western SD may allow for isolated to scattered storm develop across parts of eastern SD and vicinity from late afternoon into early evening. 18Z OAX and ABR soundings depict modest deep-layer flow and effective shear of around 30 kt, marginally supportive of organized convection where stronger destabilization has occurred. A few strong multicells and perhaps a transient supercell could evolve with time, though backing of upper-level flow could lead to messy/complex storm modes. Isolated hail and damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms, though magnitude and coverage of the threat may tend to remain limited. ..Dean/Thompson.. 05/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF... LAT...LON 42239779 43549922 44269981 44919995 45840012 45920006 45959910 45639838 45399795 44649713 43729601 42959578 42299630 42239779 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0921 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0921 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Areas affected...Parts of northwest and north-central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 312050Z - 312315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong-severe downbursts are possible with any storms that develop over the next several hours. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows deepening high-based cumulus evolving within a zone of low-level confluence in north-central and northwest OK -- where a sharp gradient in low-level moisture and boundary-layer mixing is evident. Continued heating in this zone should eventually support the development of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Temperatures in the upper 90s amid middle/upper 60s dewpoints are yielding a favorable environment for strong to severe downbursts. Around 30 kt of effective shear in the northern part of the area will conditionally favor storm organization and a locally greater severe risk, though most storms are expected to remain short-lived. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 05/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN... LAT...LON 35589905 35729894 36059858 36489805 36829776 36879751 36749713 36429708 35939724 35299817 35269854 35379897 35589905 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A semi-stagnant synoptic pattern will continue through the end of this week. An upper low will lift into southwestern Canada on Day 3/Tuesday, meanwhile a blocking ridge remains over the Central U.S. and Upper Midwest. Surface high pressure and associated dry conditions amid light winds will dominate over the Great Lakes through at least Day 4/Wednesday, then the aforementioned upper low translates eastward along the US/Canada border, pushing the surface high southward. A North Atlantic trough will transition into an upper low as it moves offshore the Eastern Seaboard on Day 4/Wednesday. Much of the Plains and Mid-South will continue to see opportunities for showers and thunderstorms with deeper boundary layer moisture in place, keeping broader fire weather concerns low. A robust upper trough is expected to approach the Northwest on Day 6/Friday bringing a possible pattern shift, albeit extended guidance diverges on overall timing and progression. ...Portions of the Southwest and Colorado Plateau... A warming and drying trend across much of the Intermountain West and Southwest will continue through the period. Diffuse surface pressure gradients will maintain lighter winds with above normal temperatures and dry conditions, supporting the drying and curing of fuels. An intrusion of deeper atmospheric moisture into the Southwest on Day 3/Tuesday will promote thunderstorms and appreciable precipitation in eastern NM. However, guidance depicts moisture will be less significant west of the Divide, with forecast soundings portraying a prominent dry sub-cloud layer and PWATs of 0.5-0.8" amid daytime instability, allowing some possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms to evolve. 10% probabilities for Dry Thunderstorms have been maintained across far eastern AZ into western NM to account for this threat. Conditions may continue through Day 4/Wednesday, however higher PWATs and slower storm motions preclude the introduction of additional Dry Thunderstorm probabilities. ...Great Lakes region... As the blocking pattern gradually breaks down, surface high pressure should reinforce warm and dry conditions across the region through mid-week. The upper ridge will begin to flatten on Day 4/Wednesday as an upper low traverses southern Canada. Very warm daytime temperatures and RH declining to near critical values on Day 5/Thursday could allow fire weather concerns to emerge where favorable fuels exist. However, misaligned breezy winds/critical RH preclude the introduction of probabilities at this time, though trends will be monitored in future outlook cycles. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A semi-stagnant synoptic pattern will continue through the end of this week. An upper low will lift into southwestern Canada on Day 3/Tuesday, meanwhile a blocking ridge remains over the Central U.S. and Upper Midwest. Surface high pressure and associated dry conditions amid light winds will dominate over the Great Lakes through at least Day 4/Wednesday, then the aforementioned upper low translates eastward along the US/Canada border, pushing the surface high southward. A North Atlantic trough will transition into an upper low as it moves offshore the Eastern Seaboard on Day 4/Wednesday. Much of the Plains and Mid-South will continue to see opportunities for showers and thunderstorms with deeper boundary layer moisture in place, keeping broader fire weather concerns low. A robust upper trough is expected to approach the Northwest on Day 6/Friday bringing a possible pattern shift, albeit extended guidance diverges on overall timing and progression. ...Portions of the Southwest and Colorado Plateau... A warming and drying trend across much of the Intermountain West and Southwest will continue through the period. Diffuse surface pressure gradients will maintain lighter winds with above normal temperatures and dry conditions, supporting the drying and curing of fuels. An intrusion of deeper atmospheric moisture into the Southwest on Day 3/Tuesday will promote thunderstorms and appreciable precipitation in eastern NM. However, guidance depicts moisture will be less significant west of the Divide, with forecast soundings portraying a prominent dry sub-cloud layer and PWATs of 0.5-0.8" amid daytime instability, allowing some possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms to evolve. 10% probabilities for Dry Thunderstorms have been maintained across far eastern AZ into western NM to account for this threat. Conditions may continue through Day 4/Wednesday, however higher PWATs and slower storm motions preclude the introduction of additional Dry Thunderstorm probabilities. ...Great Lakes region... As the blocking pattern gradually breaks down, surface high pressure should reinforce warm and dry conditions across the region through mid-week. The upper ridge will begin to flatten on Day 4/Wednesday as an upper low traverses southern Canada. Very warm daytime temperatures and RH declining to near critical values on Day 5/Thursday could allow fire weather concerns to emerge where favorable fuels exist. However, misaligned breezy winds/critical RH preclude the introduction of probabilities at this time, though trends will be monitored in future outlook cycles. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A semi-stagnant synoptic pattern will continue through the end of this week. An upper low will lift into southwestern Canada on Day 3/Tuesday, meanwhile a blocking ridge remains over the Central U.S. and Upper Midwest. Surface high pressure and associated dry conditions amid light winds will dominate over the Great Lakes through at least Day 4/Wednesday, then the aforementioned upper low translates eastward along the US/Canada border, pushing the surface high southward. A North Atlantic trough will transition into an upper low as it moves offshore the Eastern Seaboard on Day 4/Wednesday. Much of the Plains and Mid-South will continue to see opportunities for showers and thunderstorms with deeper boundary layer moisture in place, keeping broader fire weather concerns low. A robust upper trough is expected to approach the Northwest on Day 6/Friday bringing a possible pattern shift, albeit extended guidance diverges on overall timing and progression. ...Portions of the Southwest and Colorado Plateau... A warming and drying trend across much of the Intermountain West and Southwest will continue through the period. Diffuse surface pressure gradients will maintain lighter winds with above normal temperatures and dry conditions, supporting the drying and curing of fuels. An intrusion of deeper atmospheric moisture into the Southwest on Day 3/Tuesday will promote thunderstorms and appreciable precipitation in eastern NM. However, guidance depicts moisture will be less significant west of the Divide, with forecast soundings portraying a prominent dry sub-cloud layer and PWATs of 0.5-0.8" amid daytime instability, allowing some possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms to evolve. 10% probabilities for Dry Thunderstorms have been maintained across far eastern AZ into western NM to account for this threat. Conditions may continue through Day 4/Wednesday, however higher PWATs and slower storm motions preclude the introduction of additional Dry Thunderstorm probabilities. ...Great Lakes region... As the blocking pattern gradually breaks down, surface high pressure should reinforce warm and dry conditions across the region through mid-week. The upper ridge will begin to flatten on Day 4/Wednesday as an upper low traverses southern Canada. Very warm daytime temperatures and RH declining to near critical values on Day 5/Thursday could allow fire weather concerns to emerge where favorable fuels exist. However, misaligned breezy winds/critical RH preclude the introduction of probabilities at this time, though trends will be monitored in future outlook cycles. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A semi-stagnant synoptic pattern will continue through the end of this week. An upper low will lift into southwestern Canada on Day 3/Tuesday, meanwhile a blocking ridge remains over the Central U.S. and Upper Midwest. Surface high pressure and associated dry conditions amid light winds will dominate over the Great Lakes through at least Day 4/Wednesday, then the aforementioned upper low translates eastward along the US/Canada border, pushing the surface high southward. A North Atlantic trough will transition into an upper low as it moves offshore the Eastern Seaboard on Day 4/Wednesday. Much of the Plains and Mid-South will continue to see opportunities for showers and thunderstorms with deeper boundary layer moisture in place, keeping broader fire weather concerns low. A robust upper trough is expected to approach the Northwest on Day 6/Friday bringing a possible pattern shift, albeit extended guidance diverges on overall timing and progression. ...Portions of the Southwest and Colorado Plateau... A warming and drying trend across much of the Intermountain West and Southwest will continue through the period. Diffuse surface pressure gradients will maintain lighter winds with above normal temperatures and dry conditions, supporting the drying and curing of fuels. An intrusion of deeper atmospheric moisture into the Southwest on Day 3/Tuesday will promote thunderstorms and appreciable precipitation in eastern NM. However, guidance depicts moisture will be less significant west of the Divide, with forecast soundings portraying a prominent dry sub-cloud layer and PWATs of 0.5-0.8" amid daytime instability, allowing some possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms to evolve. 10% probabilities for Dry Thunderstorms have been maintained across far eastern AZ into western NM to account for this threat. Conditions may continue through Day 4/Wednesday, however higher PWATs and slower storm motions preclude the introduction of additional Dry Thunderstorm probabilities. ...Great Lakes region... As the blocking pattern gradually breaks down, surface high pressure should reinforce warm and dry conditions across the region through mid-week. The upper ridge will begin to flatten on Day 4/Wednesday as an upper low traverses southern Canada. Very warm daytime temperatures and RH declining to near critical values on Day 5/Thursday could allow fire weather concerns to emerge where favorable fuels exist. However, misaligned breezy winds/critical RH preclude the introduction of probabilities at this time, though trends will be monitored in future outlook cycles. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0919 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST MO...FAR SOUTHERN IL...FAR WESTERN KY...AND FAR NORTHWEST TN
Mesoscale Discussion 0919 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Areas affected...Southeast MO...far southern IL...far western KY...and far northwest TN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 311930Z - 312130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Locally damaging gusts will be possible with a cluster of thunderstorms tracking southeastward. DISCUSSION...A loosely organized cluster of thunderstorms is tracking southeastward across southeastern MO, which has produced a few damaging gusts and small hail. Despite limited deep-layer shear (around 25-kt midlevel flow per regional VWP), warm/moist inflow and steepened lapse rates (around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) will continue to maintain this activity as it continues southeastward along the CAPE gradient over the next couple hours. Locally damaging gusts will remain possible, but current thinking is that the overall severe risk will remain too limited for a watch. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 05/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX... LAT...LON 36959092 37339092 37859020 37858975 37648918 37308875 36858862 36398877 36208901 36088946 36249010 36509059 36959092 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0256 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0256 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0256 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0256 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 256 SEVERE TSTM MO 312000Z - 312300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 256 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 300 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Missouri * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A small thunderstorm cluster will persist for a few more hours this afternoon with an attendant risk for damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail up to 1 inch in diameter. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 30 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Cape Girardeau MO to 50 miles south southwest of Cape Girardeau MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30030. ...Thompson Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds remain possible this evening into tonight from eastern Kansas into western and central Missouri. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no major changes or additions made to the outlook. ..Squitieri.. 05/31/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026/ ...Eastern KS/MO late this afternoon through tonight... A blocking pattern remains from the Northeast to the northern Rockies, with a weak southern-stream undercut from the central Plains to the mid MS Valley. The remnants of overnight convection persist across MO with multiple outflow surges toward the southeast, and this convection may persist through the afternoon with some potential for isolated wind damage/large hail. Limited 12z soundings show a warm elevated mixed layer is present farther southwest at OUN, where surface temperatures will need to warm into the mid 90s to largely remove convective inhibition. Gradual modification of the outflow near the KS/OK border, on the northeast edge of the warmest surface temperatures, could allow for isolated thunderstorm development this evening. If storms do form, the environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing very large hail and a tornado or two. Otherwise, convection will become probable this evening into tonight within the warm advection zone from eastern KS into western MO, where a storm cluster or two will be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail into tonight. ...Mid MO Valley this afternoon/evening... Low-level ascent along a stalled baroclinic zone from eastern NE/western IA across the central Dakotas, as well as an embedded shortwave trough pivoting northeastward over SD, will likely support scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon/evening. Vertical shear will be a little stronger to the south (NE/IA) where midlevel flow will be more westerly, coincident with MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. Wind profiles and buoyancy are expected to remain weaker farther northwest in SD/ND, though forcing for ascent will be stronger with the midlevel trough and an associated frontal surge from the west. ...West TX this afternoon/evening... High-based thunderstorm development is possible along the dryline later this afternoon/evening as surface temperatures warm into the mid-upper 90s. Vertical shear will be weak, but steep low-midlevel lapse rates will favor strong downdrafts and the potential for isolated severe outflow gusts, especially with any semi-persistent storm clusters. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds remain possible this evening into tonight from eastern Kansas into western and central Missouri. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no major changes or additions made to the outlook. ..Squitieri.. 05/31/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026/ ...Eastern KS/MO late this afternoon through tonight... A blocking pattern remains from the Northeast to the northern Rockies, with a weak southern-stream undercut from the central Plains to the mid MS Valley. The remnants of overnight convection persist across MO with multiple outflow surges toward the southeast, and this convection may persist through the afternoon with some potential for isolated wind damage/large hail. Limited 12z soundings show a warm elevated mixed layer is present farther southwest at OUN, where surface temperatures will need to warm into the mid 90s to largely remove convective inhibition. Gradual modification of the outflow near the KS/OK border, on the northeast edge of the warmest surface temperatures, could allow for isolated thunderstorm development this evening. If storms do form, the environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing very large hail and a tornado or two. Otherwise, convection will become probable this evening into tonight within the warm advection zone from eastern KS into western MO, where a storm cluster or two will be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail into tonight. ...Mid MO Valley this afternoon/evening... Low-level ascent along a stalled baroclinic zone from eastern NE/western IA across the central Dakotas, as well as an embedded shortwave trough pivoting northeastward over SD, will likely support scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon/evening. Vertical shear will be a little stronger to the south (NE/IA) where midlevel flow will be more westerly, coincident with MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. Wind profiles and buoyancy are expected to remain weaker farther northwest in SD/ND, though forcing for ascent will be stronger with the midlevel trough and an associated frontal surge from the west. ...West TX this afternoon/evening... High-based thunderstorm development is possible along the dryline later this afternoon/evening as surface temperatures warm into the mid-upper 90s. Vertical shear will be weak, but steep low-midlevel lapse rates will favor strong downdrafts and the potential for isolated severe outflow gusts, especially with any semi-persistent storm clusters. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds remain possible this evening into tonight from eastern Kansas into western and central Missouri. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no major changes or additions made to the outlook. ..Squitieri.. 05/31/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026/ ...Eastern KS/MO late this afternoon through tonight... A blocking pattern remains from the Northeast to the northern Rockies, with a weak southern-stream undercut from the central Plains to the mid MS Valley. The remnants of overnight convection persist across MO with multiple outflow surges toward the southeast, and this convection may persist through the afternoon with some potential for isolated wind damage/large hail. Limited 12z soundings show a warm elevated mixed layer is present farther southwest at OUN, where surface temperatures will need to warm into the mid 90s to largely remove convective inhibition. Gradual modification of the outflow near the KS/OK border, on the northeast edge of the warmest surface temperatures, could allow for isolated thunderstorm development this evening. If storms do form, the environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing very large hail and a tornado or two. Otherwise, convection will become probable this evening into tonight within the warm advection zone from eastern KS into western MO, where a storm cluster or two will be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail into tonight. ...Mid MO Valley this afternoon/evening... Low-level ascent along a stalled baroclinic zone from eastern NE/western IA across the central Dakotas, as well as an embedded shortwave trough pivoting northeastward over SD, will likely support scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon/evening. Vertical shear will be a little stronger to the south (NE/IA) where midlevel flow will be more westerly, coincident with MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. Wind profiles and buoyancy are expected to remain weaker farther northwest in SD/ND, though forcing for ascent will be stronger with the midlevel trough and an associated frontal surge from the west. ...West TX this afternoon/evening... High-based thunderstorm development is possible along the dryline later this afternoon/evening as surface temperatures warm into the mid-upper 90s. Vertical shear will be weak, but steep low-midlevel lapse rates will favor strong downdrafts and the potential for isolated severe outflow gusts, especially with any semi-persistent storm clusters. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds remain possible this evening into tonight from eastern Kansas into western and central Missouri. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no major changes or additions made to the outlook. ..Squitieri.. 05/31/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026/ ...Eastern KS/MO late this afternoon through tonight... A blocking pattern remains from the Northeast to the northern Rockies, with a weak southern-stream undercut from the central Plains to the mid MS Valley. The remnants of overnight convection persist across MO with multiple outflow surges toward the southeast, and this convection may persist through the afternoon with some potential for isolated wind damage/large hail. Limited 12z soundings show a warm elevated mixed layer is present farther southwest at OUN, where surface temperatures will need to warm into the mid 90s to largely remove convective inhibition. Gradual modification of the outflow near the KS/OK border, on the northeast edge of the warmest surface temperatures, could allow for isolated thunderstorm development this evening. If storms do form, the environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing very large hail and a tornado or two. Otherwise, convection will become probable this evening into tonight within the warm advection zone from eastern KS into western MO, where a storm cluster or two will be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail into tonight. ...Mid MO Valley this afternoon/evening... Low-level ascent along a stalled baroclinic zone from eastern NE/western IA across the central Dakotas, as well as an embedded shortwave trough pivoting northeastward over SD, will likely support scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon/evening. Vertical shear will be a little stronger to the south (NE/IA) where midlevel flow will be more westerly, coincident with MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. Wind profiles and buoyancy are expected to remain weaker farther northwest in SD/ND, though forcing for ascent will be stronger with the midlevel trough and an associated frontal surge from the west. ...West TX this afternoon/evening... High-based thunderstorm development is possible along the dryline later this afternoon/evening as surface temperatures warm into the mid-upper 90s. Vertical shear will be weak, but steep low-midlevel lapse rates will favor strong downdrafts and the potential for isolated severe outflow gusts, especially with any semi-persistent storm clusters. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds remain possible this evening into tonight from eastern Kansas into western and central Missouri. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no major changes or additions made to the outlook. ..Squitieri.. 05/31/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026/ ...Eastern KS/MO late this afternoon through tonight... A blocking pattern remains from the Northeast to the northern Rockies, with a weak southern-stream undercut from the central Plains to the mid MS Valley. The remnants of overnight convection persist across MO with multiple outflow surges toward the southeast, and this convection may persist through the afternoon with some potential for isolated wind damage/large hail. Limited 12z soundings show a warm elevated mixed layer is present farther southwest at OUN, where surface temperatures will need to warm into the mid 90s to largely remove convective inhibition. Gradual modification of the outflow near the KS/OK border, on the northeast edge of the warmest surface temperatures, could allow for isolated thunderstorm development this evening. If storms do form, the environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing very large hail and a tornado or two. Otherwise, convection will become probable this evening into tonight within the warm advection zone from eastern KS into western MO, where a storm cluster or two will be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail into tonight. ...Mid MO Valley this afternoon/evening... Low-level ascent along a stalled baroclinic zone from eastern NE/western IA across the central Dakotas, as well as an embedded shortwave trough pivoting northeastward over SD, will likely support scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon/evening. Vertical shear will be a little stronger to the south (NE/IA) where midlevel flow will be more westerly, coincident with MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. Wind profiles and buoyancy are expected to remain weaker farther northwest in SD/ND, though forcing for ascent will be stronger with the midlevel trough and an associated frontal surge from the west. ...West TX this afternoon/evening... High-based thunderstorm development is possible along the dryline later this afternoon/evening as surface temperatures warm into the mid-upper 90s. Vertical shear will be weak, but steep low-midlevel lapse rates will favor strong downdrafts and the potential for isolated severe outflow gusts, especially with any semi-persistent storm clusters. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOM EASTERN WYOMING INTO THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on Tuesday across parts of the northern High Plains. Strong wind gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the southern and central High Plains, and along the eastern Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the eastern states is forecast to become a cut-off low near or just offshore the Carolinas on Tuesday, with a weak ridge extending from the southern Plains into the upper Great Lakes. To the west, a shortwave trough will move out of MT and the Dakotas and into southern Canada. At the surface, high pressure will extend from the Great Lakes into the OH/TN Valleys, with dry air pushing across the MS Valley and toward the Gulf Coast. A plume of relatively moist air will remain from TX into the central Plains, with mid 60s F dewpoints as far north as western KS and mid 50s F to the cold front in the Dakotas. ...Northern to Central High Plains... Severe storms are most likely ahead of a cold front Tuesday afternoon from eastern WY into the central Dakotas. This area will reside beneath the relatively stronger flow aloft, and midlevel lapse rates will be steep. Southerly pre-frontal winds veering to westerly with height will create wind profiles favorable for a few supercells and bows forming over far eastern WY and spreading into the Dakotas during the evening. The low-level jet will not be very strong, but perhaps sufficient for a couple tornadoes. Farther south, scattered storms are likely into the central and southern High Plains as strong heating, southeast surface winds with 50s F dewpoints and a weak surface trough aid development by late afternoon. Locally strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible as lapse rates aloft remain steep, but shear marginal. ...Northern FL and Vicinity... A cold front will push south during the day, as heating aids moderate destabilization. Modest west to northwest flow aloft around the southern periphery of the trough over the Carolinas will support mobile clusters of storms mainly over the FL Panhandle and northern FL by late afternoon and lasting through early evening. Storms may produce locally strong wind gusts near peak heating, and a few cells may produce marginal hail into northeast FL given relatively stronger mid to high level flow. Isolated cells may also develop along the east coast sea breeze. ..Jewell.. 05/31/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOM EASTERN WYOMING INTO THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on Tuesday across parts of the northern High Plains. Strong wind gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the southern and central High Plains, and along the eastern Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the eastern states is forecast to become a cut-off low near or just offshore the Carolinas on Tuesday, with a weak ridge extending from the southern Plains into the upper Great Lakes. To the west, a shortwave trough will move out of MT and the Dakotas and into southern Canada. At the surface, high pressure will extend from the Great Lakes into the OH/TN Valleys, with dry air pushing across the MS Valley and toward the Gulf Coast. A plume of relatively moist air will remain from TX into the central Plains, with mid 60s F dewpoints as far north as western KS and mid 50s F to the cold front in the Dakotas. ...Northern to Central High Plains... Severe storms are most likely ahead of a cold front Tuesday afternoon from eastern WY into the central Dakotas. This area will reside beneath the relatively stronger flow aloft, and midlevel lapse rates will be steep. Southerly pre-frontal winds veering to westerly with height will create wind profiles favorable for a few supercells and bows forming over far eastern WY and spreading into the Dakotas during the evening. The low-level jet will not be very strong, but perhaps sufficient for a couple tornadoes. Farther south, scattered storms are likely into the central and southern High Plains as strong heating, southeast surface winds with 50s F dewpoints and a weak surface trough aid development by late afternoon. Locally strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible as lapse rates aloft remain steep, but shear marginal. ...Northern FL and Vicinity... A cold front will push south during the day, as heating aids moderate destabilization. Modest west to northwest flow aloft around the southern periphery of the trough over the Carolinas will support mobile clusters of storms mainly over the FL Panhandle and northern FL by late afternoon and lasting through early evening. Storms may produce locally strong wind gusts near peak heating, and a few cells may produce marginal hail into northeast FL given relatively stronger mid to high level flow. Isolated cells may also develop along the east coast sea breeze. ..Jewell.. 05/31/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOM EASTERN WYOMING INTO THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on Tuesday across parts of the northern High Plains. Strong wind gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the southern and central High Plains, and along the eastern Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the eastern states is forecast to become a cut-off low near or just offshore the Carolinas on Tuesday, with a weak ridge extending from the southern Plains into the upper Great Lakes. To the west, a shortwave trough will move out of MT and the Dakotas and into southern Canada. At the surface, high pressure will extend from the Great Lakes into the OH/TN Valleys, with dry air pushing across the MS Valley and toward the Gulf Coast. A plume of relatively moist air will remain from TX into the central Plains, with mid 60s F dewpoints as far north as western KS and mid 50s F to the cold front in the Dakotas. ...Northern to Central High Plains... Severe storms are most likely ahead of a cold front Tuesday afternoon from eastern WY into the central Dakotas. This area will reside beneath the relatively stronger flow aloft, and midlevel lapse rates will be steep. Southerly pre-frontal winds veering to westerly with height will create wind profiles favorable for a few supercells and bows forming over far eastern WY and spreading into the Dakotas during the evening. The low-level jet will not be very strong, but perhaps sufficient for a couple tornadoes. Farther south, scattered storms are likely into the central and southern High Plains as strong heating, southeast surface winds with 50s F dewpoints and a weak surface trough aid development by late afternoon. Locally strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible as lapse rates aloft remain steep, but shear marginal. ...Northern FL and Vicinity... A cold front will push south during the day, as heating aids moderate destabilization. Modest west to northwest flow aloft around the southern periphery of the trough over the Carolinas will support mobile clusters of storms mainly over the FL Panhandle and northern FL by late afternoon and lasting through early evening. Storms may produce locally strong wind gusts near peak heating, and a few cells may produce marginal hail into northeast FL given relatively stronger mid to high level flow. Isolated cells may also develop along the east coast sea breeze. ..Jewell.. 05/31/2026 Read more