Storm Prediction Center

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Wed - Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas... An upper trough will lift northeast across the region on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from roughly the Hudson Valley to the central Appalachians at the beginning of the period. Within a zone of strong warm advection ahead of the surface front, widespread showers and thunderstorm may be ongoing across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, resulting in uncertainty regarding northward extent of severe potential. For now, the 15 percent severe probability has been confined to portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas ahead of the surface trough/cold front. A very moist airmass will be in place across the region, and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes are forecast. Thunderstorm clusters or linear bands are expected to move across the region through evening, posing mainly a risk for damaging winds. ...Days 5-8/Thu-Sun... Severe potential is expected to be lower late in the week into the weekend. An upper trough will persist over the eastern U.S., but deep-layer flow will be weak. Further west, the subtropical high will intensify over the Plains and into the Four Corners vicinity while the associated amplified upper ridge persists northward into the Canadian Prairies. As boundary layer moisture spreads northward beneath the upper ridge, some severe potential could develop each day across parts of the High Plains. However, this will largely be driven by mesoscale processes not well resolved at longer lead times. Overall, the intense upper ridge should largely suppress greater severe potential. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday. All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the nighttime hours. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... A vigorous upper trough will spread across the region on Tuesday. A broad area of strong deep-layer flow, especially by July standards, will overlap a very moist airmass ahead of an eastward progressing surface cold front. Widespread dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s are expected. While some uncertainty exists regarding potential morning convection in the form of a remnant MCS from the Day 2/Monday period across parts of MI/IN/OH, pockets of stronger heating should occur, and given rich moisture/continuous warm advection ahead of the surface front, strong destabilization is forecast. While boundary layer moisture will begin the day somewhat muted across parts of the Northeast, strong warm advection and increasing southerly low-level flow across the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast will also result in northward transport of richer boundary layer moisture through evening. While instability may be somewhat less further east into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, strong deep-layer flow will envelop this region as well. Supercell wind profiles are evident across the broad warm sector, with 40+ kt westerly flow common above 850 mb. Where supercells can develop and be maintained, all severe hazards will be possible. However, given the strong flow field, and the progressive trough and surface front, one or more bowing segments will quickly develop and spread eastward. Swaths of damaging winds will be the primary concern during the afternoon and into the nighttime hours. ..Leitman.. 07/19/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday. All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the nighttime hours. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... A vigorous upper trough will spread across the region on Tuesday. A broad area of strong deep-layer flow, especially by July standards, will overlap a very moist airmass ahead of an eastward progressing surface cold front. Widespread dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s are expected. While some uncertainty exists regarding potential morning convection in the form of a remnant MCS from the Day 2/Monday period across parts of MI/IN/OH, pockets of stronger heating should occur, and given rich moisture/continuous warm advection ahead of the surface front, strong destabilization is forecast. While boundary layer moisture will begin the day somewhat muted across parts of the Northeast, strong warm advection and increasing southerly low-level flow across the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast will also result in northward transport of richer boundary layer moisture through evening. While instability may be somewhat less further east into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, strong deep-layer flow will envelop this region as well. Supercell wind profiles are evident across the broad warm sector, with 40+ kt westerly flow common above 850 mb. Where supercells can develop and be maintained, all severe hazards will be possible. However, given the strong flow field, and the progressive trough and surface front, one or more bowing segments will quickly develop and spread eastward. Swaths of damaging winds will be the primary concern during the afternoon and into the nighttime hours. ..Leitman.. 07/19/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday. All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the nighttime hours. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... A vigorous upper trough will spread across the region on Tuesday. A broad area of strong deep-layer flow, especially by July standards, will overlap a very moist airmass ahead of an eastward progressing surface cold front. Widespread dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s are expected. While some uncertainty exists regarding potential morning convection in the form of a remnant MCS from the Day 2/Monday period across parts of MI/IN/OH, pockets of stronger heating should occur, and given rich moisture/continuous warm advection ahead of the surface front, strong destabilization is forecast. While boundary layer moisture will begin the day somewhat muted across parts of the Northeast, strong warm advection and increasing southerly low-level flow across the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast will also result in northward transport of richer boundary layer moisture through evening. While instability may be somewhat less further east into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, strong deep-layer flow will envelop this region as well. Supercell wind profiles are evident across the broad warm sector, with 40+ kt westerly flow common above 850 mb. Where supercells can develop and be maintained, all severe hazards will be possible. However, given the strong flow field, and the progressive trough and surface front, one or more bowing segments will quickly develop and spread eastward. Swaths of damaging winds will be the primary concern during the afternoon and into the nighttime hours. ..Leitman.. 07/19/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive upper ridge over the West, a weak midlevel disturbance and accompanying influx of midlevel moisture will overspread parts of the Northwest on Monday. While this should promote isolated to widely scattered high-based showers, the latest forecast soundings suggest that EL temperatures will be too warm for lightning with this activity. While an isolated strike or two cannot be completely ruled out over the higher terrain, confidence is currently too low to introduce an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area. Elsewhere, a limited overlap of dry/windy conditions atop receptive fuels will reduce fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ..Weinman.. 07/19/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive upper ridge over the West, a weak midlevel disturbance and accompanying influx of midlevel moisture will overspread parts of the Northwest on Monday. While this should promote isolated to widely scattered high-based showers, the latest forecast soundings suggest that EL temperatures will be too warm for lightning with this activity. While an isolated strike or two cannot be completely ruled out over the higher terrain, confidence is currently too low to introduce an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area. Elsewhere, a limited overlap of dry/windy conditions atop receptive fuels will reduce fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ..Weinman.. 07/19/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive upper ridge over the West, a weak midlevel disturbance and accompanying influx of midlevel moisture will overspread parts of the Northwest on Monday. While this should promote isolated to widely scattered high-based showers, the latest forecast soundings suggest that EL temperatures will be too warm for lightning with this activity. While an isolated strike or two cannot be completely ruled out over the higher terrain, confidence is currently too low to introduce an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area. Elsewhere, a limited overlap of dry/windy conditions atop receptive fuels will reduce fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ..Weinman.. 07/19/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the Northwest in the wake of a departing midlevel trough. While warm and dry conditions will continue across the region, generally weak surface winds will limit fire-weather concerns compared to previous days. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible within terrain-favored/wind-prone areas, given dry/receptive fuels. Elsewhere, a limited overlap of dry/windy conditions atop receptive fuels will reduce fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ..Weinman.. 07/19/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the Northwest in the wake of a departing midlevel trough. While warm and dry conditions will continue across the region, generally weak surface winds will limit fire-weather concerns compared to previous days. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible within terrain-favored/wind-prone areas, given dry/receptive fuels. Elsewhere, a limited overlap of dry/windy conditions atop receptive fuels will reduce fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ..Weinman.. 07/19/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the Northwest in the wake of a departing midlevel trough. While warm and dry conditions will continue across the region, generally weak surface winds will limit fire-weather concerns compared to previous days. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible within terrain-favored/wind-prone areas, given dry/receptive fuels. Elsewhere, a limited overlap of dry/windy conditions atop receptive fuels will reduce fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ..Weinman.. 07/19/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MN...NORTHEAST IA...NORTHERN IL...WI...AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are probable across portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Monday. Swaths of damaging winds will be the most likely hazard, with isolated large hail as well. Isolated strong to damaging gusts may occur over parts of the Carolinas. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... An upper shortwave trough initially over the northern Plains early Monday will strengthen as it progresses east/southeast over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. As this occurs, mid/upper west/northwesterly flow will intensify, with most guidance showing 50-60 kt at 500 mb, and 850-700 mb potentially increasing to 40+ kt. At the surface, low pressure will deepen as it shifts east across Ontario and the northern Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will sweep east/southeast during the afternoon and evening, becoming positioned from northern Lower MI to northern MO by Tuesday morning. Ahead of the front, a very moist airmass characterized by 70s dewpoints will be in place. This moisture will modestly decrease east of Lake MI. Within the moist axis, strong to extreme instability is forecast (particularly from IA into WI). Some uncertainty remains concerning placement and extent of potential ongoing convection early Monday, and will depend on evolution of storms overnight in the Day 1/Sunday period, and the timing of a possible lead shortwave impulse. Morning convection could have implications for where corridors of greater severe potential will develop during the afternoon/evening. Nevertheless, the region will experience strong warm advection ahead of the cold front, and airmass recovery is likely. Supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings. A favorable thermodynamic/kinematic environment could support initial supercells capable of all severe hazards, and possibly significant severe. However, given the progressive nature of the upper trough and surface cold front, along with intensifying 850 mb flow by late afternoon/evening, upscale growth into one or more bowing MCSs appears possible. Significant damaging wind potential will increase with a transition to linear storm mode. The south and east extent of severe potential is also uncertain, but if a mature MCS develops during the evening, it seems reasonable the severe wind risk could persist into portions of Lower MI, northern IN and northwest OH overnight. ...North Carolina vicinity... Weak northwest flow aloft will persist across the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. Modest lee troughing across the Piedmont will allow a surface front to lift north across part of NC into VA, and spreading rich boundary layer moisture across the region. Strong heating will result in moderate destabilization and scattered thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon. Deep-layer flow will remain modest, but sufficient clustering, high PW values, and steep low-level lapse rates will support isolated damaging wind potential. ..Leitman.. 07/19/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MN...NORTHEAST IA...NORTHERN IL...WI...AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are probable across portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Monday. Swaths of damaging winds will be the most likely hazard, with isolated large hail as well. Isolated strong to damaging gusts may occur over parts of the Carolinas. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... An upper shortwave trough initially over the northern Plains early Monday will strengthen as it progresses east/southeast over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. As this occurs, mid/upper west/northwesterly flow will intensify, with most guidance showing 50-60 kt at 500 mb, and 850-700 mb potentially increasing to 40+ kt. At the surface, low pressure will deepen as it shifts east across Ontario and the northern Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will sweep east/southeast during the afternoon and evening, becoming positioned from northern Lower MI to northern MO by Tuesday morning. Ahead of the front, a very moist airmass characterized by 70s dewpoints will be in place. This moisture will modestly decrease east of Lake MI. Within the moist axis, strong to extreme instability is forecast (particularly from IA into WI). Some uncertainty remains concerning placement and extent of potential ongoing convection early Monday, and will depend on evolution of storms overnight in the Day 1/Sunday period, and the timing of a possible lead shortwave impulse. Morning convection could have implications for where corridors of greater severe potential will develop during the afternoon/evening. Nevertheless, the region will experience strong warm advection ahead of the cold front, and airmass recovery is likely. Supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings. A favorable thermodynamic/kinematic environment could support initial supercells capable of all severe hazards, and possibly significant severe. However, given the progressive nature of the upper trough and surface cold front, along with intensifying 850 mb flow by late afternoon/evening, upscale growth into one or more bowing MCSs appears possible. Significant damaging wind potential will increase with a transition to linear storm mode. The south and east extent of severe potential is also uncertain, but if a mature MCS develops during the evening, it seems reasonable the severe wind risk could persist into portions of Lower MI, northern IN and northwest OH overnight. ...North Carolina vicinity... Weak northwest flow aloft will persist across the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. Modest lee troughing across the Piedmont will allow a surface front to lift north across part of NC into VA, and spreading rich boundary layer moisture across the region. Strong heating will result in moderate destabilization and scattered thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon. Deep-layer flow will remain modest, but sufficient clustering, high PW values, and steep low-level lapse rates will support isolated damaging wind potential. ..Leitman.. 07/19/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MN...NORTHEAST IA...NORTHERN IL...WI...AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are probable across portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Monday. Swaths of damaging winds will be the most likely hazard, with isolated large hail as well. Isolated strong to damaging gusts may occur over parts of the Carolinas. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... An upper shortwave trough initially over the northern Plains early Monday will strengthen as it progresses east/southeast over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. As this occurs, mid/upper west/northwesterly flow will intensify, with most guidance showing 50-60 kt at 500 mb, and 850-700 mb potentially increasing to 40+ kt. At the surface, low pressure will deepen as it shifts east across Ontario and the northern Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will sweep east/southeast during the afternoon and evening, becoming positioned from northern Lower MI to northern MO by Tuesday morning. Ahead of the front, a very moist airmass characterized by 70s dewpoints will be in place. This moisture will modestly decrease east of Lake MI. Within the moist axis, strong to extreme instability is forecast (particularly from IA into WI). Some uncertainty remains concerning placement and extent of potential ongoing convection early Monday, and will depend on evolution of storms overnight in the Day 1/Sunday period, and the timing of a possible lead shortwave impulse. Morning convection could have implications for where corridors of greater severe potential will develop during the afternoon/evening. Nevertheless, the region will experience strong warm advection ahead of the cold front, and airmass recovery is likely. Supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings. A favorable thermodynamic/kinematic environment could support initial supercells capable of all severe hazards, and possibly significant severe. However, given the progressive nature of the upper trough and surface cold front, along with intensifying 850 mb flow by late afternoon/evening, upscale growth into one or more bowing MCSs appears possible. Significant damaging wind potential will increase with a transition to linear storm mode. The south and east extent of severe potential is also uncertain, but if a mature MCS develops during the evening, it seems reasonable the severe wind risk could persist into portions of Lower MI, northern IN and northwest OH overnight. ...North Carolina vicinity... Weak northwest flow aloft will persist across the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. Modest lee troughing across the Piedmont will allow a surface front to lift north across part of NC into VA, and spreading rich boundary layer moisture across the region. Strong heating will result in moderate destabilization and scattered thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon. Deep-layer flow will remain modest, but sufficient clustering, high PW values, and steep low-level lapse rates will support isolated damaging wind potential. ..Leitman.. 07/19/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds will be possible from parts of north Georgia, across the Carolinas, and into southern Virginia this afternoon. Additional severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the Dakotas and western Minnesota. ... Synopsis ... The base-state mid-level pattern today will feature a western US ridge and eastern US trough, with a weak closed low over the northeast Gulf. Within this background flow field, a short-wave trough will be exiting the Northeast US and a closed low across the Canadian Prairies will crest the western ridge before digging southeast late in the day toward the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a large anticyclone will settle into the Great Lakes region during the day. On the periphery of this anticyclone, a cold front will be draped from coastal Virginia to the west-southwest, before arcing northwest into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and then into the Upper Midwest. This front will sag south across the eastern US, while beginning to lift north and east across the Mississippi Valley and Upper-Midwest. The front will act to delineate a very warm/hot and moist airmass to the south and west from a cooler/dryer airmass to the north and east. ... Georgia into southern Virginia and the greater Southeast ... To the south of the advancing surface front, temperatures will warm into the low-to-mid-90Fs from northern Georgia into southern Virginia. At the same time, surface dewpoints of the upper-60Fs and low-70Fs will be maintained. The result will be an strongly unstable environment with HREF ensemble mean MUCAPE between 1500-2000 J/kg across the region. Forecast soundings show precipitable water greater than 1.75 inches across much of the area, with a band of precipitable water in excess of 2 inches. This, coupled with steep sub-cloud layer lapse rates (approaching 8 C/km) which will support wind damage potential with any sustained thunderstorm updraft. Surrounding this area, more scattered thunderstorm development is expected within the moist and unstable environment. At this time, it appears a corridor of higher likelihood for thunderstorm development will extend from southeast Louisiana northeast toward northern Georgia. This increased thunderstorm activity appears to be associated with a band of modest convergence in the 850-700 millibar layer to the north of a weak low across the northeast Gulf. Damaging wind gusts will be possible with some of these storms. Another potential area of damaging wind gusts will be across north-central Florida into far south-central Georgia. Here, HREF guidance shows an east-northeast expanding band of thunderstorms emanating from the low over the northeast Gulf. ... Dakotas into western Montana ... Temperatures are expected to warm into the upper-90Fs to the low-100Fs during the afternoon to the east of a low-level trough axis developing in the lee of the Rockies in the northern High Plains. To the east of this trough axis, HREF ensemble mean dewpoints in the mid-to-upper-60Fs will combine with those hot afternoon temperatures to support a very unstable environment, with HREF ensemble mean MUCAPE values between 1500-2000 J/kg across the Dakotas and individual members considerably higher (3000-4000 J/kg). Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Dakotas by mid afternoon as convective temperatures are approached and modest height falls overspread the area. Long, straight hodographs and effective-layer shear around 40-knots will support supercellular structures, including storm splits, early in the thunderstorm convective life cycle. Large hail, potentially in excess of 2 inches, will be possible with these initial storms. However, dry sub-cloud layers and low-level lapse rates around 9 C/km will support strong convective outflows that will tend to favor upscale growth, especially in regions where storm splits interact with one another. One or more convective clusters will move east-southeast during the late afternoon and evening continuing the threat for damaging winds, before eventually weakening overnight. ..Marsh/Weinman.. 07/19/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds will be possible from parts of north Georgia, across the Carolinas, and into southern Virginia this afternoon. Additional severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the Dakotas and western Minnesota. ... Synopsis ... The base-state mid-level pattern today will feature a western US ridge and eastern US trough, with a weak closed low over the northeast Gulf. Within this background flow field, a short-wave trough will be exiting the Northeast US and a closed low across the Canadian Prairies will crest the western ridge before digging southeast late in the day toward the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a large anticyclone will settle into the Great Lakes region during the day. On the periphery of this anticyclone, a cold front will be draped from coastal Virginia to the west-southwest, before arcing northwest into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and then into the Upper Midwest. This front will sag south across the eastern US, while beginning to lift north and east across the Mississippi Valley and Upper-Midwest. The front will act to delineate a very warm/hot and moist airmass to the south and west from a cooler/dryer airmass to the north and east. ... Georgia into southern Virginia and the greater Southeast ... To the south of the advancing surface front, temperatures will warm into the low-to-mid-90Fs from northern Georgia into southern Virginia. At the same time, surface dewpoints of the upper-60Fs and low-70Fs will be maintained. The result will be an strongly unstable environment with HREF ensemble mean MUCAPE between 1500-2000 J/kg across the region. Forecast soundings show precipitable water greater than 1.75 inches across much of the area, with a band of precipitable water in excess of 2 inches. This, coupled with steep sub-cloud layer lapse rates (approaching 8 C/km) which will support wind damage potential with any sustained thunderstorm updraft. Surrounding this area, more scattered thunderstorm development is expected within the moist and unstable environment. At this time, it appears a corridor of higher likelihood for thunderstorm development will extend from southeast Louisiana northeast toward northern Georgia. This increased thunderstorm activity appears to be associated with a band of modest convergence in the 850-700 millibar layer to the north of a weak low across the northeast Gulf. Damaging wind gusts will be possible with some of these storms. Another potential area of damaging wind gusts will be across north-central Florida into far south-central Georgia. Here, HREF guidance shows an east-northeast expanding band of thunderstorms emanating from the low over the northeast Gulf. ... Dakotas into western Montana ... Temperatures are expected to warm into the upper-90Fs to the low-100Fs during the afternoon to the east of a low-level trough axis developing in the lee of the Rockies in the northern High Plains. To the east of this trough axis, HREF ensemble mean dewpoints in the mid-to-upper-60Fs will combine with those hot afternoon temperatures to support a very unstable environment, with HREF ensemble mean MUCAPE values between 1500-2000 J/kg across the Dakotas and individual members considerably higher (3000-4000 J/kg). Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Dakotas by mid afternoon as convective temperatures are approached and modest height falls overspread the area. Long, straight hodographs and effective-layer shear around 40-knots will support supercellular structures, including storm splits, early in the thunderstorm convective life cycle. Large hail, potentially in excess of 2 inches, will be possible with these initial storms. However, dry sub-cloud layers and low-level lapse rates around 9 C/km will support strong convective outflows that will tend to favor upscale growth, especially in regions where storm splits interact with one another. One or more convective clusters will move east-southeast during the late afternoon and evening continuing the threat for damaging winds, before eventually weakening overnight. ..Marsh/Weinman.. 07/19/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds will be possible from parts of north Georgia, across the Carolinas, and into southern Virginia this afternoon. Additional severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the Dakotas and western Minnesota. ... Synopsis ... The base-state mid-level pattern today will feature a western US ridge and eastern US trough, with a weak closed low over the northeast Gulf. Within this background flow field, a short-wave trough will be exiting the Northeast US and a closed low across the Canadian Prairies will crest the western ridge before digging southeast late in the day toward the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a large anticyclone will settle into the Great Lakes region during the day. On the periphery of this anticyclone, a cold front will be draped from coastal Virginia to the west-southwest, before arcing northwest into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and then into the Upper Midwest. This front will sag south across the eastern US, while beginning to lift north and east across the Mississippi Valley and Upper-Midwest. The front will act to delineate a very warm/hot and moist airmass to the south and west from a cooler/dryer airmass to the north and east. ... Georgia into southern Virginia and the greater Southeast ... To the south of the advancing surface front, temperatures will warm into the low-to-mid-90Fs from northern Georgia into southern Virginia. At the same time, surface dewpoints of the upper-60Fs and low-70Fs will be maintained. The result will be an strongly unstable environment with HREF ensemble mean MUCAPE between 1500-2000 J/kg across the region. Forecast soundings show precipitable water greater than 1.75 inches across much of the area, with a band of precipitable water in excess of 2 inches. This, coupled with steep sub-cloud layer lapse rates (approaching 8 C/km) which will support wind damage potential with any sustained thunderstorm updraft. Surrounding this area, more scattered thunderstorm development is expected within the moist and unstable environment. At this time, it appears a corridor of higher likelihood for thunderstorm development will extend from southeast Louisiana northeast toward northern Georgia. This increased thunderstorm activity appears to be associated with a band of modest convergence in the 850-700 millibar layer to the north of a weak low across the northeast Gulf. Damaging wind gusts will be possible with some of these storms. Another potential area of damaging wind gusts will be across north-central Florida into far south-central Georgia. Here, HREF guidance shows an east-northeast expanding band of thunderstorms emanating from the low over the northeast Gulf. ... Dakotas into western Montana ... Temperatures are expected to warm into the upper-90Fs to the low-100Fs during the afternoon to the east of a low-level trough axis developing in the lee of the Rockies in the northern High Plains. To the east of this trough axis, HREF ensemble mean dewpoints in the mid-to-upper-60Fs will combine with those hot afternoon temperatures to support a very unstable environment, with HREF ensemble mean MUCAPE values between 1500-2000 J/kg across the Dakotas and individual members considerably higher (3000-4000 J/kg). Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Dakotas by mid afternoon as convective temperatures are approached and modest height falls overspread the area. Long, straight hodographs and effective-layer shear around 40-knots will support supercellular structures, including storm splits, early in the thunderstorm convective life cycle. Large hail, potentially in excess of 2 inches, will be possible with these initial storms. However, dry sub-cloud layers and low-level lapse rates around 9 C/km will support strong convective outflows that will tend to favor upscale growth, especially in regions where storm splits interact with one another. One or more convective clusters will move east-southeast during the late afternoon and evening continuing the threat for damaging winds, before eventually weakening overnight. ..Marsh/Weinman.. 07/19/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0809 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT CATEGORICAL LINES ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of wind damage may continue for another hour or so across central Pennsylvania before dissipating. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail will be likely across portions western Montana ... 01Z Update ... Overall thunderstorm intensity continues to wane across much of the northeast with the loss of daytime heating and multiple rounds of thunderstorms acting to stabilize the airmass. However, a few damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will be possible from far eastern Ohio into southern New England for perhaps another hour or two. The most likely area for wind damage is across central Pennsylvania where the most intense thunderstorms are currently found. These storms should weaken further in the next couple of hours, bringing an end to the organized severe threat. Across western Montana, sufficient buoyancy is in place to support ongoing convection, some of which has produced severe wind gusts this afternoon. Steep lapse rates coupled with gradually strengthening mid-level flow will support an ongoing severe threat, including a couple of outflow-driven convective clusters. Please see MCD #1656 for more details. ..Marsh.. 07/19/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0809 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT CATEGORICAL LINES ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of wind damage may continue for another hour or so across central Pennsylvania before dissipating. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail will be likely across portions western Montana ... 01Z Update ... Overall thunderstorm intensity continues to wane across much of the northeast with the loss of daytime heating and multiple rounds of thunderstorms acting to stabilize the airmass. However, a few damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will be possible from far eastern Ohio into southern New England for perhaps another hour or two. The most likely area for wind damage is across central Pennsylvania where the most intense thunderstorms are currently found. These storms should weaken further in the next couple of hours, bringing an end to the organized severe threat. Across western Montana, sufficient buoyancy is in place to support ongoing convection, some of which has produced severe wind gusts this afternoon. Steep lapse rates coupled with gradually strengthening mid-level flow will support an ongoing severe threat, including a couple of outflow-driven convective clusters. Please see MCD #1656 for more details. ..Marsh.. 07/19/2026 Read more

MD 1656 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 497... FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL MT
Mesoscale Discussion 1656 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Areas affected...Parts of western/central MT Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 497... Valid 182335Z - 190130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 497 continues. SUMMARY...Some increase in severe-wind potential is possible through the evening. Isolated hail also remains possible. DISCUSSION...As of 2330 UTC, widely scattered storms are ongoing across parts of western MT. In the short term, the severe threat may remain rather isolated, with moderate buoyancy and steep lapse rates supporting a threat of localized hail and severe gusts. With time, as both midlevel flow and storm coverage gradually strengthen over the region, one or more outflow-driven clusters may evolve and pose an increasing severe-wind threat into this evening. Some severe threat may eventually develop north of WW 497, and trends will continue to be monitored regarding the need for local watch expansion. ..Dean.. 07/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO... LAT...LON 45761352 47971301 48971205 49031139 49061025 49020950 48980903 47650881 46560952 45941010 45511068 45151132 44971202 45101278 45761352 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0497 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 497 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HART..07/19/26 ATTN...WFO...TFX...BYZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 497 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC005-007-013-015-027-031-041-043-045-049-051-057-059-067-073- 097-099-107-190140- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE BROADWATER CASCADE CHOUTEAU FERGUS GALLATIN HILL JEFFERSON JUDITH BASIN LEWIS AND CLARK LIBERTY MADISON MEAGHER PARK PONDERA SWEET GRASS TETON WHEATLAND THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more