Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOM EASTERN WYOMING INTO THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on Tuesday across parts of the northern High Plains. Strong wind gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the southern and central High Plains, and along the eastern Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the eastern states is forecast to become a cut-off low near or just offshore the Carolinas on Tuesday, with a weak ridge extending from the southern Plains into the upper Great Lakes. To the west, a shortwave trough will move out of MT and the Dakotas and into southern Canada. At the surface, high pressure will extend from the Great Lakes into the OH/TN Valleys, with dry air pushing across the MS Valley and toward the Gulf Coast. A plume of relatively moist air will remain from TX into the central Plains, with mid 60s F dewpoints as far north as western KS and mid 50s F to the cold front in the Dakotas. ...Northern to Central High Plains... Severe storms are most likely ahead of a cold front Tuesday afternoon from eastern WY into the central Dakotas. This area will reside beneath the relatively stronger flow aloft, and midlevel lapse rates will be steep. Southerly pre-frontal winds veering to westerly with height will create wind profiles favorable for a few supercells and bows forming over far eastern WY and spreading into the Dakotas during the evening. The low-level jet will not be very strong, but perhaps sufficient for a couple tornadoes. Farther south, scattered storms are likely into the central and southern High Plains as strong heating, southeast surface winds with 50s F dewpoints and a weak surface trough aid development by late afternoon. Locally strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible as lapse rates aloft remain steep, but shear marginal. ...Northern FL and Vicinity... A cold front will push south during the day, as heating aids moderate destabilization. Modest west to northwest flow aloft around the southern periphery of the trough over the Carolinas will support mobile clusters of storms mainly over the FL Panhandle and northern FL by late afternoon and lasting through early evening. Storms may produce locally strong wind gusts near peak heating, and a few cells may produce marginal hail into northeast FL given relatively stronger mid to high level flow. Isolated cells may also develop along the east coast sea breeze. ..Jewell.. 05/31/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOM EASTERN WYOMING INTO THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on Tuesday across parts of the northern High Plains. Strong wind gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the southern and central High Plains, and along the eastern Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the eastern states is forecast to become a cut-off low near or just offshore the Carolinas on Tuesday, with a weak ridge extending from the southern Plains into the upper Great Lakes. To the west, a shortwave trough will move out of MT and the Dakotas and into southern Canada. At the surface, high pressure will extend from the Great Lakes into the OH/TN Valleys, with dry air pushing across the MS Valley and toward the Gulf Coast. A plume of relatively moist air will remain from TX into the central Plains, with mid 60s F dewpoints as far north as western KS and mid 50s F to the cold front in the Dakotas. ...Northern to Central High Plains... Severe storms are most likely ahead of a cold front Tuesday afternoon from eastern WY into the central Dakotas. This area will reside beneath the relatively stronger flow aloft, and midlevel lapse rates will be steep. Southerly pre-frontal winds veering to westerly with height will create wind profiles favorable for a few supercells and bows forming over far eastern WY and spreading into the Dakotas during the evening. The low-level jet will not be very strong, but perhaps sufficient for a couple tornadoes. Farther south, scattered storms are likely into the central and southern High Plains as strong heating, southeast surface winds with 50s F dewpoints and a weak surface trough aid development by late afternoon. Locally strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible as lapse rates aloft remain steep, but shear marginal. ...Northern FL and Vicinity... A cold front will push south during the day, as heating aids moderate destabilization. Modest west to northwest flow aloft around the southern periphery of the trough over the Carolinas will support mobile clusters of storms mainly over the FL Panhandle and northern FL by late afternoon and lasting through early evening. Storms may produce locally strong wind gusts near peak heating, and a few cells may produce marginal hail into northeast FL given relatively stronger mid to high level flow. Isolated cells may also develop along the east coast sea breeze. ..Jewell.. 05/31/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. A persisting dry airmass aloft and localized breezy conditions will continue to increase fuel receptivity across western NM and the Colorado Plateau on D2/Monday. Widespread RH values of 10-15% are expected in the southern Great Basin and Southwest, though weaker southwesterly surface winds of 5-10 mph (locally greater in terrain-favored areas) preclude the introduction of broader fire weather highlights. However, given ERCs approaching the 90th percentile, locally elevated fire concerns may emerge. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/31/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to be limited for Monday across the country. As with D1/Sunday, dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest and portions of the Great Lakes where fuels will remain fairly receptive. However, pressure gradient winds will continue to be weak owing to building high pressure over the Great Lakes and a combination of modest surface pressure falls and weak low-level flow across the southern High Plains. While localized elevated conditions appear possible in the lee of more prominent terrain features across central and northern NM, the potential for widespread fire weather concerns is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. A persisting dry airmass aloft and localized breezy conditions will continue to increase fuel receptivity across western NM and the Colorado Plateau on D2/Monday. Widespread RH values of 10-15% are expected in the southern Great Basin and Southwest, though weaker southwesterly surface winds of 5-10 mph (locally greater in terrain-favored areas) preclude the introduction of broader fire weather highlights. However, given ERCs approaching the 90th percentile, locally elevated fire concerns may emerge. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/31/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to be limited for Monday across the country. As with D1/Sunday, dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest and portions of the Great Lakes where fuels will remain fairly receptive. However, pressure gradient winds will continue to be weak owing to building high pressure over the Great Lakes and a combination of modest surface pressure falls and weak low-level flow across the southern High Plains. While localized elevated conditions appear possible in the lee of more prominent terrain features across central and northern NM, the potential for widespread fire weather concerns is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. A persisting dry airmass aloft and localized breezy conditions will continue to increase fuel receptivity across western NM and the Colorado Plateau on D2/Monday. Widespread RH values of 10-15% are expected in the southern Great Basin and Southwest, though weaker southwesterly surface winds of 5-10 mph (locally greater in terrain-favored areas) preclude the introduction of broader fire weather highlights. However, given ERCs approaching the 90th percentile, locally elevated fire concerns may emerge. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/31/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to be limited for Monday across the country. As with D1/Sunday, dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest and portions of the Great Lakes where fuels will remain fairly receptive. However, pressure gradient winds will continue to be weak owing to building high pressure over the Great Lakes and a combination of modest surface pressure falls and weak low-level flow across the southern High Plains. While localized elevated conditions appear possible in the lee of more prominent terrain features across central and northern NM, the potential for widespread fire weather concerns is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. A persisting dry airmass aloft and localized breezy conditions will continue to increase fuel receptivity across western NM and the Colorado Plateau on D2/Monday. Widespread RH values of 10-15% are expected in the southern Great Basin and Southwest, though weaker southwesterly surface winds of 5-10 mph (locally greater in terrain-favored areas) preclude the introduction of broader fire weather highlights. However, given ERCs approaching the 90th percentile, locally elevated fire concerns may emerge. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/31/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to be limited for Monday across the country. As with D1/Sunday, dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest and portions of the Great Lakes where fuels will remain fairly receptive. However, pressure gradient winds will continue to be weak owing to building high pressure over the Great Lakes and a combination of modest surface pressure falls and weak low-level flow across the southern High Plains. While localized elevated conditions appear possible in the lee of more prominent terrain features across central and northern NM, the potential for widespread fire weather concerns is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. A persisting dry airmass aloft and localized breezy conditions will continue to increase fuel receptivity across western NM and the Colorado Plateau on D2/Monday. Widespread RH values of 10-15% are expected in the southern Great Basin and Southwest, though weaker southwesterly surface winds of 5-10 mph (locally greater in terrain-favored areas) preclude the introduction of broader fire weather highlights. However, given ERCs approaching the 90th percentile, locally elevated fire concerns may emerge. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/31/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to be limited for Monday across the country. As with D1/Sunday, dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest and portions of the Great Lakes where fuels will remain fairly receptive. However, pressure gradient winds will continue to be weak owing to building high pressure over the Great Lakes and a combination of modest surface pressure falls and weak low-level flow across the southern High Plains. While localized elevated conditions appear possible in the lee of more prominent terrain features across central and northern NM, the potential for widespread fire weather concerns is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0918 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0918 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Areas affected...Portions of central and southern MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 311654Z - 311930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple instances of severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts are possible through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm clusters evolving along/immediately north of convective outflow spreading into central/southern MO are beginning to impinge on a moist, diurnally destabilizing PBL. Steep midlevel lapse rates (sampled by the 12Z SGF sounding) atop lower 70s dewpoints will yield a strongly unstable air mass with continued diurnal heating this afternoon. This, combined with around 30 kt of effective shear (slightly enhanced by a convectively augmented midlevel impulse to the north), will support loosely organized clusters through the afternoon. The stronger storms will be capable of producing isolated severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts. Additional isolated storm development is possible along the trailing outflow boundary in southwest MO this afternoon, though weak large-scale forcing for ascent limits this confidence in this scenario. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 05/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 38139293 38579191 38689139 38639091 38469051 38029034 37589050 37249095 36969168 36849262 36889379 37109424 37389442 37579436 37689394 38139293 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. Scattered strong to severe wind gusts will also be possible from the Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast. ...Central Plains... An upper low with leading negative-tilt wave will shift north across MT/Dakotas on Monday, with moderate mid to high level southwesterlies persisting across the northern to central High Plains with 35-40 kt at 500 mb. Temperatures aloft will also remain cool across this region, leading to steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, low pressure will develop over southeast CO and the Panhandles area, with strengthening easterlies across KS/NE/CO. This will maintain low-level moisture westward to the Front Range as daytime heating destabilizes the air mass. MLCAPE to around 1500 J/kg appears reasonable, and effective shear will approach 50 kt over eastern CO due to strong direction change with height. Storms are likely to form by 21Z from southeast WY southward along the Front Range, with a few cells or bowing structure proceeding into western NE/KS by evening. Isolated hail to 2.00" will be possible initially, with perhaps a brief/weak tornado. Otherwise, storms should produce severe gusts as outflow production increases. Additional storms will be possible with hail/wind potential near/north of the surface low into southwest KS where heating and surface convergence will be maximized. ...From MO into MS/AL... An MCS or remnants thereof is forecast to be over southern MO Monday morning, with several models suggesting storm regeneration along the outflow at it travels across TN, northern MS and AL. It is unclear whether this activity will still be severe, thus will maintain Marginal Risk. Otherwise, new storm generation is possible from AR into MS and AL near or west of the early day activity/outflow. Winds aloft are even weaker with westward extent, which lends uncertainty to organization potential. However, strong instability with near 3000 J/kg MUCAPE and ample PWAT will support at least locally strong to severe gusts. ..Jewell.. 05/31/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. Scattered strong to severe wind gusts will also be possible from the Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast. ...Central Plains... An upper low with leading negative-tilt wave will shift north across MT/Dakotas on Monday, with moderate mid to high level southwesterlies persisting across the northern to central High Plains with 35-40 kt at 500 mb. Temperatures aloft will also remain cool across this region, leading to steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, low pressure will develop over southeast CO and the Panhandles area, with strengthening easterlies across KS/NE/CO. This will maintain low-level moisture westward to the Front Range as daytime heating destabilizes the air mass. MLCAPE to around 1500 J/kg appears reasonable, and effective shear will approach 50 kt over eastern CO due to strong direction change with height. Storms are likely to form by 21Z from southeast WY southward along the Front Range, with a few cells or bowing structure proceeding into western NE/KS by evening. Isolated hail to 2.00" will be possible initially, with perhaps a brief/weak tornado. Otherwise, storms should produce severe gusts as outflow production increases. Additional storms will be possible with hail/wind potential near/north of the surface low into southwest KS where heating and surface convergence will be maximized. ...From MO into MS/AL... An MCS or remnants thereof is forecast to be over southern MO Monday morning, with several models suggesting storm regeneration along the outflow at it travels across TN, northern MS and AL. It is unclear whether this activity will still be severe, thus will maintain Marginal Risk. Otherwise, new storm generation is possible from AR into MS and AL near or west of the early day activity/outflow. Winds aloft are even weaker with westward extent, which lends uncertainty to organization potential. However, strong instability with near 3000 J/kg MUCAPE and ample PWAT will support at least locally strong to severe gusts. ..Jewell.. 05/31/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. Scattered strong to severe wind gusts will also be possible from the Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast. ...Central Plains... An upper low with leading negative-tilt wave will shift north across MT/Dakotas on Monday, with moderate mid to high level southwesterlies persisting across the northern to central High Plains with 35-40 kt at 500 mb. Temperatures aloft will also remain cool across this region, leading to steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, low pressure will develop over southeast CO and the Panhandles area, with strengthening easterlies across KS/NE/CO. This will maintain low-level moisture westward to the Front Range as daytime heating destabilizes the air mass. MLCAPE to around 1500 J/kg appears reasonable, and effective shear will approach 50 kt over eastern CO due to strong direction change with height. Storms are likely to form by 21Z from southeast WY southward along the Front Range, with a few cells or bowing structure proceeding into western NE/KS by evening. Isolated hail to 2.00" will be possible initially, with perhaps a brief/weak tornado. Otherwise, storms should produce severe gusts as outflow production increases. Additional storms will be possible with hail/wind potential near/north of the surface low into southwest KS where heating and surface convergence will be maximized. ...From MO into MS/AL... An MCS or remnants thereof is forecast to be over southern MO Monday morning, with several models suggesting storm regeneration along the outflow at it travels across TN, northern MS and AL. It is unclear whether this activity will still be severe, thus will maintain Marginal Risk. Otherwise, new storm generation is possible from AR into MS and AL near or west of the early day activity/outflow. Winds aloft are even weaker with westward extent, which lends uncertainty to organization potential. However, strong instability with near 3000 J/kg MUCAPE and ample PWAT will support at least locally strong to severe gusts. ..Jewell.. 05/31/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. Scattered strong to severe wind gusts will also be possible from the Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast. ...Central Plains... An upper low with leading negative-tilt wave will shift north across MT/Dakotas on Monday, with moderate mid to high level southwesterlies persisting across the northern to central High Plains with 35-40 kt at 500 mb. Temperatures aloft will also remain cool across this region, leading to steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, low pressure will develop over southeast CO and the Panhandles area, with strengthening easterlies across KS/NE/CO. This will maintain low-level moisture westward to the Front Range as daytime heating destabilizes the air mass. MLCAPE to around 1500 J/kg appears reasonable, and effective shear will approach 50 kt over eastern CO due to strong direction change with height. Storms are likely to form by 21Z from southeast WY southward along the Front Range, with a few cells or bowing structure proceeding into western NE/KS by evening. Isolated hail to 2.00" will be possible initially, with perhaps a brief/weak tornado. Otherwise, storms should produce severe gusts as outflow production increases. Additional storms will be possible with hail/wind potential near/north of the surface low into southwest KS where heating and surface convergence will be maximized. ...From MO into MS/AL... An MCS or remnants thereof is forecast to be over southern MO Monday morning, with several models suggesting storm regeneration along the outflow at it travels across TN, northern MS and AL. It is unclear whether this activity will still be severe, thus will maintain Marginal Risk. Otherwise, new storm generation is possible from AR into MS and AL near or west of the early day activity/outflow. Winds aloft are even weaker with westward extent, which lends uncertainty to organization potential. However, strong instability with near 3000 J/kg MUCAPE and ample PWAT will support at least locally strong to severe gusts. ..Jewell.. 05/31/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. Scattered strong to severe wind gusts will also be possible from the Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast. ...Central Plains... An upper low with leading negative-tilt wave will shift north across MT/Dakotas on Monday, with moderate mid to high level southwesterlies persisting across the northern to central High Plains with 35-40 kt at 500 mb. Temperatures aloft will also remain cool across this region, leading to steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, low pressure will develop over southeast CO and the Panhandles area, with strengthening easterlies across KS/NE/CO. This will maintain low-level moisture westward to the Front Range as daytime heating destabilizes the air mass. MLCAPE to around 1500 J/kg appears reasonable, and effective shear will approach 50 kt over eastern CO due to strong direction change with height. Storms are likely to form by 21Z from southeast WY southward along the Front Range, with a few cells or bowing structure proceeding into western NE/KS by evening. Isolated hail to 2.00" will be possible initially, with perhaps a brief/weak tornado. Otherwise, storms should produce severe gusts as outflow production increases. Additional storms will be possible with hail/wind potential near/north of the surface low into southwest KS where heating and surface convergence will be maximized. ...From MO into MS/AL... An MCS or remnants thereof is forecast to be over southern MO Monday morning, with several models suggesting storm regeneration along the outflow at it travels across TN, northern MS and AL. It is unclear whether this activity will still be severe, thus will maintain Marginal Risk. Otherwise, new storm generation is possible from AR into MS and AL near or west of the early day activity/outflow. Winds aloft are even weaker with westward extent, which lends uncertainty to organization potential. However, strong instability with near 3000 J/kg MUCAPE and ample PWAT will support at least locally strong to severe gusts. ..Jewell.. 05/31/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The ongoing forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/31/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show the driest conditions across eastern AZ into central NM where overnight RH values have struggled to climb out of the teens. Very dry conditions will prevail across AZ/NM for today (afternoon RH minimums in the single digits to low teens), and fine fuel analyses and recent fire activity in NM suggest that some fuels are favorable for fire spread. However, recent guidance continues to suggest winds across the region will be fairly light - generally 10-15 mph. This limits confidence in an appreciable fire weather threat away from more prominent central NM terrain features. Similarly, dry conditions will prevail across the Great Lakes and upper MS River Valley region, but weak winds within the dry air mass will modulate fire weather concerns. A swath of elevated fire weather conditions will likely emerge across southeast WY within a downslope flow regime, but recent rainfall has likely improved fuel moisture content. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The ongoing forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/31/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show the driest conditions across eastern AZ into central NM where overnight RH values have struggled to climb out of the teens. Very dry conditions will prevail across AZ/NM for today (afternoon RH minimums in the single digits to low teens), and fine fuel analyses and recent fire activity in NM suggest that some fuels are favorable for fire spread. However, recent guidance continues to suggest winds across the region will be fairly light - generally 10-15 mph. This limits confidence in an appreciable fire weather threat away from more prominent central NM terrain features. Similarly, dry conditions will prevail across the Great Lakes and upper MS River Valley region, but weak winds within the dry air mass will modulate fire weather concerns. A swath of elevated fire weather conditions will likely emerge across southeast WY within a downslope flow regime, but recent rainfall has likely improved fuel moisture content. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The ongoing forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/31/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show the driest conditions across eastern AZ into central NM where overnight RH values have struggled to climb out of the teens. Very dry conditions will prevail across AZ/NM for today (afternoon RH minimums in the single digits to low teens), and fine fuel analyses and recent fire activity in NM suggest that some fuels are favorable for fire spread. However, recent guidance continues to suggest winds across the region will be fairly light - generally 10-15 mph. This limits confidence in an appreciable fire weather threat away from more prominent central NM terrain features. Similarly, dry conditions will prevail across the Great Lakes and upper MS River Valley region, but weak winds within the dry air mass will modulate fire weather concerns. A swath of elevated fire weather conditions will likely emerge across southeast WY within a downslope flow regime, but recent rainfall has likely improved fuel moisture content. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The ongoing forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/31/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show the driest conditions across eastern AZ into central NM where overnight RH values have struggled to climb out of the teens. Very dry conditions will prevail across AZ/NM for today (afternoon RH minimums in the single digits to low teens), and fine fuel analyses and recent fire activity in NM suggest that some fuels are favorable for fire spread. However, recent guidance continues to suggest winds across the region will be fairly light - generally 10-15 mph. This limits confidence in an appreciable fire weather threat away from more prominent central NM terrain features. Similarly, dry conditions will prevail across the Great Lakes and upper MS River Valley region, but weak winds within the dry air mass will modulate fire weather concerns. A swath of elevated fire weather conditions will likely emerge across southeast WY within a downslope flow regime, but recent rainfall has likely improved fuel moisture content. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The ongoing forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/31/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show the driest conditions across eastern AZ into central NM where overnight RH values have struggled to climb out of the teens. Very dry conditions will prevail across AZ/NM for today (afternoon RH minimums in the single digits to low teens), and fine fuel analyses and recent fire activity in NM suggest that some fuels are favorable for fire spread. However, recent guidance continues to suggest winds across the region will be fairly light - generally 10-15 mph. This limits confidence in an appreciable fire weather threat away from more prominent central NM terrain features. Similarly, dry conditions will prevail across the Great Lakes and upper MS River Valley region, but weak winds within the dry air mass will modulate fire weather concerns. A swath of elevated fire weather conditions will likely emerge across southeast WY within a downslope flow regime, but recent rainfall has likely improved fuel moisture content. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are possible this evening into tonight from eastern Kansas into western and central Missouri. ...Eastern KS/MO late this afternoon through tonight... A blocking pattern remains from the Northeast to the northern Rockies, with a weak southern-stream undercut from the central Plains to the mid MS Valley. The remnants of overnight convection persist across MO with multiple outflow surges toward the southeast, and this convection may persist through the afternoon with some potential for isolated wind damage/large hail. Limited 12z soundings show a warm elevated mixed layer is present farther southwest at OUN, where surface temperatures will need to warm into the mid 90s to largely remove convective inhibition. Gradual modification of the outflow near the KS/OK border, on the northeast edge of the warmest surface temperatures, could allow for isolated thunderstorm development this evening. If storms do form, the environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing very large hail and a tornado or two. Otherwise, convection will become probable this evening into tonight within the warm advection zone from eastern KS into western MO, where a storm cluster or two will be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail into tonight. ...Mid MO Valley this afternoon/evening... Low-level ascent along a stalled baroclinic zone from eastern NE/western IA across the central Dakotas, as well as an embedded shortwave trough pivoting northeastward over SD, will likely support scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon/evening. Vertical shear will be a little stronger to the south (NE/IA) where midlevel flow will be more westerly, coincident with MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. Wind profiles and buoyancy are expected to remain weaker farther northwest in SD/ND, though forcing for ascent will be stronger with the midlevel trough and an associated frontal surge from the west. ...West TX this afternoon/evening... High-based thunderstorm development is possible along the dryline later this afternoon/evening as surface temperatures warm into the mid-upper 90s. Vertical shear will be weak, but steep low-midlevel lapse rates will favor strong downdrafts and the potential for isolated severe outflow gusts, especially with any semi-persistent storm clusters. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 05/31/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are possible this evening into tonight from eastern Kansas into western and central Missouri. ...Eastern KS/MO late this afternoon through tonight... A blocking pattern remains from the Northeast to the northern Rockies, with a weak southern-stream undercut from the central Plains to the mid MS Valley. The remnants of overnight convection persist across MO with multiple outflow surges toward the southeast, and this convection may persist through the afternoon with some potential for isolated wind damage/large hail. Limited 12z soundings show a warm elevated mixed layer is present farther southwest at OUN, where surface temperatures will need to warm into the mid 90s to largely remove convective inhibition. Gradual modification of the outflow near the KS/OK border, on the northeast edge of the warmest surface temperatures, could allow for isolated thunderstorm development this evening. If storms do form, the environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing very large hail and a tornado or two. Otherwise, convection will become probable this evening into tonight within the warm advection zone from eastern KS into western MO, where a storm cluster or two will be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail into tonight. ...Mid MO Valley this afternoon/evening... Low-level ascent along a stalled baroclinic zone from eastern NE/western IA across the central Dakotas, as well as an embedded shortwave trough pivoting northeastward over SD, will likely support scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon/evening. Vertical shear will be a little stronger to the south (NE/IA) where midlevel flow will be more westerly, coincident with MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. Wind profiles and buoyancy are expected to remain weaker farther northwest in SD/ND, though forcing for ascent will be stronger with the midlevel trough and an associated frontal surge from the west. ...West TX this afternoon/evening... High-based thunderstorm development is possible along the dryline later this afternoon/evening as surface temperatures warm into the mid-upper 90s. Vertical shear will be weak, but steep low-midlevel lapse rates will favor strong downdrafts and the potential for isolated severe outflow gusts, especially with any semi-persistent storm clusters. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 05/31/2026 Read more