Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe storms are possible across the central U.S. on Sunday, from the Dakotas into the Ozarks, and across southwest Texas. ...Synopsis... A relatively weak upper trough will lift northward through the central/northern Plains. To the south of this feature, mid-level heights will modestly rise during the day. Weak surface lows are expected within the northern Plains and Kansas. Rich moisture will be present as far north as the Mid-Missouri Valley. ...Kansas/Missouri... Convection is likely to be ongoing in parts of the Mid-Missouri Valley during the morning. This activity is likely to leave an outflow boundary within Missouri. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F will promote strong to extreme MLCAPE values (3500-5000 J/kg). Despite the trough generally lifting northward, a band of 30-40 kt of mid-level flow will remain across the region. Storm development along the surface trough/dryline is uncertain given the rising mid-level heights. However, it is possible that a storm or two could form along this boundary or where it intersects outflow from the early day activity. Deep-layer shear would be sufficient for supercell structures capable of large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado given the locally enhanced SRH along the outflow boundary. The potential for very-large hail is less clear given weak upper-level flow. Model guidance also suggests a subtle shortwave, coupled with weak low-level lift, could initiate convection in the vicinity of northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri. With the very moist airmass present, nocturnal cooling would be rather gradual. Should a strong enough cold pool develop, this activity could develop south/southeast along the outflow boundary where a reservoir of strong buoyancy would exist. Damaging winds would be the main threat with this potential MCS. With the timing of this development expected to be after 03Z, it is not clear how intense storms will be. Should confidence increase in either scenario, a categorical Slight would be warranted. ...Oklahoma/Texas... Strong heating to the west of a dryline will promote at least isolated storms during the afternoon. Higher confidence in greater storm coverage exists in Southwest Texas given the moist upslope flow into the Davis Mountains. Coverage into Rolling Plains and Oklahoma is less certain as mid-level heights will be slowly rising during the day. Moderate to strong buoyancy will be in place (2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep layer shear will be weak, however. Severe wind gusts will be the main hazard, though isolated large hail is possible in the areas of larger buoyancy. ...Nebraska into the Dakotas... Forcing for ascent from the weak, negatively tilted upper trough will be greater here than areas to the south. That said, shear will not be overly strong. Daytime heating will support widely scattered to scattered storms capable of locally damaging winds and perhaps some hail. ..Wendt/Moore.. 05/31/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe storms are possible across the central U.S. on Sunday, from the Dakotas into the Ozarks, and across southwest Texas. ...Synopsis... A relatively weak upper trough will lift northward through the central/northern Plains. To the south of this feature, mid-level heights will modestly rise during the day. Weak surface lows are expected within the northern Plains and Kansas. Rich moisture will be present as far north as the Mid-Missouri Valley. ...Kansas/Missouri... Convection is likely to be ongoing in parts of the Mid-Missouri Valley during the morning. This activity is likely to leave an outflow boundary within Missouri. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F will promote strong to extreme MLCAPE values (3500-5000 J/kg). Despite the trough generally lifting northward, a band of 30-40 kt of mid-level flow will remain across the region. Storm development along the surface trough/dryline is uncertain given the rising mid-level heights. However, it is possible that a storm or two could form along this boundary or where it intersects outflow from the early day activity. Deep-layer shear would be sufficient for supercell structures capable of large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado given the locally enhanced SRH along the outflow boundary. The potential for very-large hail is less clear given weak upper-level flow. Model guidance also suggests a subtle shortwave, coupled with weak low-level lift, could initiate convection in the vicinity of northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri. With the very moist airmass present, nocturnal cooling would be rather gradual. Should a strong enough cold pool develop, this activity could develop south/southeast along the outflow boundary where a reservoir of strong buoyancy would exist. Damaging winds would be the main threat with this potential MCS. With the timing of this development expected to be after 03Z, it is not clear how intense storms will be. Should confidence increase in either scenario, a categorical Slight would be warranted. ...Oklahoma/Texas... Strong heating to the west of a dryline will promote at least isolated storms during the afternoon. Higher confidence in greater storm coverage exists in Southwest Texas given the moist upslope flow into the Davis Mountains. Coverage into Rolling Plains and Oklahoma is less certain as mid-level heights will be slowly rising during the day. Moderate to strong buoyancy will be in place (2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep layer shear will be weak, however. Severe wind gusts will be the main hazard, though isolated large hail is possible in the areas of larger buoyancy. ...Nebraska into the Dakotas... Forcing for ascent from the weak, negatively tilted upper trough will be greater here than areas to the south. That said, shear will not be overly strong. Daytime heating will support widely scattered to scattered storms capable of locally damaging winds and perhaps some hail. ..Wendt/Moore.. 05/31/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe storms are possible across the central U.S. on Sunday, from the Dakotas into the Ozarks, and across southwest Texas. ...Synopsis... A relatively weak upper trough will lift northward through the central/northern Plains. To the south of this feature, mid-level heights will modestly rise during the day. Weak surface lows are expected within the northern Plains and Kansas. Rich moisture will be present as far north as the Mid-Missouri Valley. ...Kansas/Missouri... Convection is likely to be ongoing in parts of the Mid-Missouri Valley during the morning. This activity is likely to leave an outflow boundary within Missouri. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F will promote strong to extreme MLCAPE values (3500-5000 J/kg). Despite the trough generally lifting northward, a band of 30-40 kt of mid-level flow will remain across the region. Storm development along the surface trough/dryline is uncertain given the rising mid-level heights. However, it is possible that a storm or two could form along this boundary or where it intersects outflow from the early day activity. Deep-layer shear would be sufficient for supercell structures capable of large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado given the locally enhanced SRH along the outflow boundary. The potential for very-large hail is less clear given weak upper-level flow. Model guidance also suggests a subtle shortwave, coupled with weak low-level lift, could initiate convection in the vicinity of northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri. With the very moist airmass present, nocturnal cooling would be rather gradual. Should a strong enough cold pool develop, this activity could develop south/southeast along the outflow boundary where a reservoir of strong buoyancy would exist. Damaging winds would be the main threat with this potential MCS. With the timing of this development expected to be after 03Z, it is not clear how intense storms will be. Should confidence increase in either scenario, a categorical Slight would be warranted. ...Oklahoma/Texas... Strong heating to the west of a dryline will promote at least isolated storms during the afternoon. Higher confidence in greater storm coverage exists in Southwest Texas given the moist upslope flow into the Davis Mountains. Coverage into Rolling Plains and Oklahoma is less certain as mid-level heights will be slowly rising during the day. Moderate to strong buoyancy will be in place (2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep layer shear will be weak, however. Severe wind gusts will be the main hazard, though isolated large hail is possible in the areas of larger buoyancy. ...Nebraska into the Dakotas... Forcing for ascent from the weak, negatively tilted upper trough will be greater here than areas to the south. That said, shear will not be overly strong. Daytime heating will support widely scattered to scattered storms capable of locally damaging winds and perhaps some hail. ..Wendt/Moore.. 05/31/2026 Read more

MD 0917 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 253... FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0917 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0925 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026 Areas affected...Central and northeast Kansas into adjacent portions of Nebraska and far western Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253... Valid 310225Z - 310430Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253 continues. SUMMARY...The potential for severe hail and wind should continue into the late evening hours. However, this threat should become more isolated with time. DISCUSSION...Pockets of strong/severe thunderstorms continue across portions of central/northeast KS and south-central NE. A persistent convective cluster northeast of the Wichita, KS area has maintained intensity over the past hour despite the onset of nocturnal cooling - likely owing to increasing ascent on the southern flank of the convective cold pool related to the recent onset of the nocturnal jet. Similarly, new convective cores are noted across central KS over the cold pool. Weak deep-layer wind shear should limit longevity of these cores, but given residual buoyancy and increasing isentropic ascent, some hail threat may linger as stronger cores briefly pulse to severe limits. Further northeast, pockets of strong winds remain evident in regional velocity imagery across south-central NE and northeast KS. Additionally, new cell development is noted in the Topeka, KS vicinity, though cell longevity has been limited - likely due to similarly modest deep-layer wind shear. Mid-level flow generally weakens with northeastward extent, which limits confidence in the potential for a more prolonged/robust severe threat. Consequently, downstream watch issuance appears unlikely at this point. However, a localized hail/wind threat should persist for the next several hours. ..Moore.. 05/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 37579658 37559697 37569722 37669756 38939905 39179909 39619867 40049859 40449879 40759884 40869877 41439779 41429729 41309669 40049538 39689508 39189486 38819502 38159536 37579658 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0915 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 252... FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0915 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0848 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026 Areas affected...parts of northwest Nebraska and western South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 252... Valid 310148Z - 310315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 252 continues. SUMMARY...A north-south line of thunderstorms continues across portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #252. The overall environment remains favorable for isolated large hail and damaging winds in the short term. Trends will be monitored to determine if an extension in time for the watch is needed, but one is currently not expected. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm intensity continues to wane across most of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #252 this evening. The exception is across portions of far northwest Nebraska and western South Dakota. Here, a slowly westward moving north-south band of thunderstorms has developed/intensified over the last 90 minutes. The environment surrounding these storms remains unstable with MUCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg, while the deep-layer shear has improved this evening to around 30-35 knots. This will result in a continued threat of large hail and perhaps damaging thunderstorm winds with the strongest cores. Severe Thunderstorm Watch #252 is scheduled to expire at 03Z (9 PM MDT). Trends will be monitored over the next hour to see if a local extension in time is needed, but current expectations are that absent significant increase in intensity, the watch will be allowed to expire on time. ..Marsh.. 05/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 41610265 42720354 44640359 45100316 45160251 45030217 43420203 41840226 41610265 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0916 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 254... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0916 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0910 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026 Areas affected...portions of north-central Nebraska and far south-central South Dakota Concerning...Tornado Watch 254... Valid 310210Z - 310345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 254 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue across Nebraska this evening. Across Northern Nebraska thunderstorm intensity has quickly waned, but isolated damaging winds may occur with the leading edge of the weakening storms. Portions of the linear of storms across central and south-central Nebraska remain favorable for a continued hail/wind threat in the near term. DISCUSSION...A northwest-to-southeast arc of thunderstorms continues to move northeast across much of Nebraska this evening associated with a weak short-wave trough moving through the subtropical jet stream. The thermodynamic environment along this arc of storms remains very unstable with MUCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg, with 2000 J/kg remaining well ahead of the line as well. Kinematically, however, the thunderstorms are rapidly advancing out of the stronger deep-layer shear, which is evident by an overall weakening trend along the northern portion of this line. Surging outflow moving east from the weakening northern portion of the line across northern Nebraska intersects northward moving outflow from the southern/eastern portion of the line in the vicinity of Thedford, NE. Here, thunderstorm intensity appears to be conducive for some continued hail/wind threat in the near term. A short-term hail/wind threat may persist between Broken Bow and Ord, NE, where convective outflows have not fully outrun the parent updrafts. Elsewhere, isolated damaging winds along the surging outflow boundaries cannot be ruled out. ..Marsh.. 05/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 41069932 41450072 42120170 42650202 43150167 43330082 43149944 42549870 41729846 41109890 41069932 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0914 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 253... FOR CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0914 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026 Areas affected...Central Kansas into south-central Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253... Valid 310029Z - 310230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind and hail continues across portions of central Kansas and south-central Nebraska, including behind the primary band of thunderstorms where new convection is developing along outflow boundaries. Trends are being monitored for the need for downstream watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Several severe wind reports have been noted over the past two hours across central KS as two predominant bands/clusters of thunderstorms have emerged and spread northeast. These clusters currently reside within the axis of higher MLCAPE and should be migrating towards a region of lower buoyancy across eastern NE and far eastern KS (as depicted by the recent 00z TOP RAOB that sampled around 1800 J/kg MLCAPE along with nearly -120 J/kg MLCIN). However, the presence of established cold pools with both clusters, combined with the coming onset of the nocturnal jet, may promote a continued severe wind threat downstream across southeast NE and parts of eastern Kansas through late evening. Convective trends will continue to be monitored for the need for downstream watch issuance. Further southwest across south-central KS, convection continues to develop along the outflow boundaries associated with the initial thunderstorm clusters. Although storm motions will be towards the convectively overturned/cold pool air, convective intensity trends in GOES cloud-top temperatures and MRMS VIL suggest that pockets of sufficient buoyancy remain in place for at least a localized hail and wind threat over the next couple of hours - especially as isentropic upglide over the cold pools increases with the onset of the nocturnal jet. ..Moore.. 05/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 37179753 37069803 37129860 37429911 37989955 38339974 38669961 38919940 39139923 39449915 39799921 40109953 40309969 40519969 40739942 40889905 40959860 40909822 40839787 40679762 39219652 38879634 38379624 38109634 37889654 37179753 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0254 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 254 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE LBF TO 30 NW IML. ..MARSH..05/31/26 ATTN...WFO...GLD...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 254 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-009-031-041-049-069-075-091-101-111-113-117-135-161-171- 310240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BLAINE CHERRY CUSTER DEUEL GARDEN GRANT HOOKER KEITH LINCOLN LOGAN MCPHERSON PERKINS SHERIDAN THOMAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0254 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 254 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE LBF TO 30 NW IML. ..MARSH..05/31/26 ATTN...WFO...GLD...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 254 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-009-031-041-049-069-075-091-101-111-113-117-135-161-171- 310240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BLAINE CHERRY CUSTER DEUEL GARDEN GRANT HOOKER KEITH LINCOLN LOGAN MCPHERSON PERKINS SHERIDAN THOMAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 254 TORNADO KS NE 302200Z - 310400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 254 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM MDT Sat May 30 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northwest Kansas Western Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms including supercells are expected to develop across the region into this evening. This includes storms capable of large hail, damaging winds and a tornado risk, which should increase within a moist air mass as low-level winds strengthen. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northwest of Mullen NE to 40 miles southwest of Mccook NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 252...WW 253... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 18025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0252 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 252 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE AIA TO 10 SSW AIA TO 20 SW CDR TO 20 W RAP. ..MARSH..05/31/26 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...CYS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 252 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC115-310240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SEDGWICK NEC013-045-310240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOX BUTTE DAWES SDC033-047-093-102-103-310240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUSTER FALL RIVER MEADE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON Read more

WW 0252 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 252 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE AIA TO 10 SSW AIA TO 20 SW CDR TO 20 W RAP. ..MARSH..05/31/26 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...CYS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 252 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC115-310240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SEDGWICK NEC013-045-310240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOX BUTTE DAWES SDC033-047-093-102-103-310240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUSTER FALL RIVER MEADE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON Read more

WW 252 SEVERE TSTM CO NE SD WY 302015Z - 310300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 252 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 PM MDT Sat May 30 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Nebraska Panhandle Southwest South Dakota Eastern Wyoming * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to intensify across the area through the afternoon, with a few severe storms expected. Damaging winds and hail are the main threat, although an isolated tornado is possible if discrete supercells can form. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 90 miles north northwest of Chadron NE to 30 miles south southwest of Akron CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0253 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 253 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE PNC TO 25 SE P28 TO 45 NNE DDC TO 25 SE HLC TO 30 NE RSL TO 50 S HSI TO 20 SW EAR TO 25 ESE LBF. ..MOORE..05/31/26 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...GLD...GID...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 253 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC009-027-029-041-051-053-077-079-089-095-105-113-115-143-145- 151-155-157-159-165-167-169-173-185-191-201-310240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON CLAY CLOUD DICKINSON ELLIS ELLSWORTH HARPER HARVEY JEWELL KINGMAN LINCOLN MCPHERSON MARION OTTAWA PAWNEE PRATT RENO REPUBLIC RICE RUSH RUSSELL SALINE SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER WASHINGTON NEC001-019-035-047-059-079-081-093-099-121-129-163-169-181- 310240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BUFFALO CLAY Read more

WW 0253 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 253 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE PNC TO 25 SE P28 TO 45 NNE DDC TO 25 SE HLC TO 30 NE RSL TO 50 S HSI TO 20 SW EAR TO 25 ESE LBF. ..MOORE..05/31/26 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...GLD...GID...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 253 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC009-027-029-041-051-053-077-079-089-095-105-113-115-143-145- 151-155-157-159-165-167-169-173-185-191-201-310240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON CLAY CLOUD DICKINSON ELLIS ELLSWORTH HARPER HARVEY JEWELL KINGMAN LINCOLN MCPHERSON MARION OTTAWA PAWNEE PRATT RENO REPUBLIC RICE RUSH RUSSELL SALINE SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER WASHINGTON NEC001-019-035-047-059-079-081-093-099-121-129-163-169-181- 310240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BUFFALO CLAY Read more

WW 253 SEVERE TSTM KS NE OK 302035Z - 310300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 253 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 335 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Kansas South Central Nebraska Northern Oklahoma * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are rapidly developing on a dryline over southwest Kansas. These storms will expand through the afternoon and evening across the watch area, with the potential for damaging winds and large hail. An isolated tornado or two is also possible in any discrete cells that can be sustained. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles north northwest of Kearney NE to 10 miles west southwest of Enid OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 252... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

MD 0912 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 255... FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0912 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026 Areas affected...Southwest Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 255... Valid 302353Z - 310200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 255 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms have struggled to maintain intensity within a weakly forced, but otherwise favorable convective environment. While storm coverage and intensity are uncertain due to recent trends, additional thunderstorm development appears possible through mid-evening based on GOES imagery. DISCUSSION...A pair of supercells across the far eastern TX Panhandle have struggled to maintain intensity over the past hour with both cells largely dissipated as of 23:50 UTC. The lackluster sustenance of these cells is likely owing to weak forcing for ascent across the region as the primary upper-level trough axis shifts away from the region to the north. However, there are hints in recent GOES imagery that additional convection is possible in the coming hours. Low-level water-vapor imagery reveals a subtle ribbon of vorticity spreading east across the TX Panhandle towards the dryline, which may bolster ascent to some degree over the next hour. Some hints of this ascent are already noted as a few deeper congestus clouds develop along the dryline to the west of the weakening cells. Additionally, a cluster of elevated cumulus south of the Lawton, OK area has seen steady, albeit slow, growth over the past hour. Confidence is low that either of these regions will see substantial convective intensification, but recent RRFS solutions hint at isolated thunderstorms through roughly 04 UTC within an otherwise favorable convective environment. ..Moore.. 05/30/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34150051 34450071 34690067 35050044 35180031 35340005 35419973 35379911 35259860 35059822 34719798 34449789 34109798 33959824 33899870 33859906 33839980 33890039 34150051 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0913 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 254... FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0913 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0701 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026 Areas affected...parts of western Nebraska Concerning...Tornado Watch 254... Valid 310001Z - 310130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 254 continues. SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging winds will continue this evening. The tornado potential may increase slightly around sunset before waning much later this evening. The severe threat continues. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop in arc from northeast Colorado east into western Nebraska then southeast into central Kansas this evening. This region is likely being glanced by large-scale ascent associated with the lifting, negatively tilted short-wave trough over central Colorado and eastern Wyoming. Additionally, this area is likely experiencing large-scale ascent associated with a 300-mb subtropical jet and subtle short-wave trough lifting northeast across the central US. MUCAPE values across the region are quite extreme, with a reservoir of 4000 J/kg along and ahead of the northward moving arc of convection. Deep-layer shear across the line remains on the weaker side for organized convection, with only 25-35 knots objectively analyzed. That said, shear vectors are mostly orthogonal to the initiating boundary and the extreme instability should support a continued threat for large hail and damaging winds. With time this evening, the low-level jet is forecast to forecast to increase around and after sunset. As this happens, strengthening, strongly veering with height, low-level wind fields may support a more favorable environment for a tornado or two. The severe threat continues across the watch this evening. ..Marsh.. 05/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40020207 40980207 41000261 42950273 42990021 42120017 42109963 41759966 41779916 41069920 41010022 40730022 40689998 40459998 40300017 39620017 39590071 39990079 40020207 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will continue this evening and parts of the overnight, mainly within the central Plains. ...Synopsis... An arcing zone of convection is ongoing across parts of Nebraska into central Kansas. The strongest forcing for ascent will be present in Nebraska as the shortwave trough pivots north through the evening. This activity will still be capable of large hail, severe winds, and a couple of tornadoes as the low-level jet modestly strengthens into the evening. Additional storms will continue in central Kansas. The 00Z observed TOP sounding showed steep mid-level lapse rates, but some capping at low levels. While activity will tend to become elevated into the evening, strong to severe/damaging winds will remain possible farther east. Large hail potential will be somewhat mitigated be less favorable storm modes. Within the southern Plains, an isolated storm is possible on the dryline in the next couple of hours, but confidence in this scenario is low as forcing for ascent is weak and low-level stability will increase with time. ..Wendt.. 05/31/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will continue this evening and parts of the overnight, mainly within the central Plains. ...Synopsis... An arcing zone of convection is ongoing across parts of Nebraska into central Kansas. The strongest forcing for ascent will be present in Nebraska as the shortwave trough pivots north through the evening. This activity will still be capable of large hail, severe winds, and a couple of tornadoes as the low-level jet modestly strengthens into the evening. Additional storms will continue in central Kansas. The 00Z observed TOP sounding showed steep mid-level lapse rates, but some capping at low levels. While activity will tend to become elevated into the evening, strong to severe/damaging winds will remain possible farther east. Large hail potential will be somewhat mitigated be less favorable storm modes. Within the southern Plains, an isolated storm is possible on the dryline in the next couple of hours, but confidence in this scenario is low as forcing for ascent is weak and low-level stability will increase with time. ..Wendt.. 05/31/2026 Read more