Storm Prediction Center

No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 5 08:08:01 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Feb 5 08:08:01 UTC 2026.

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday or Friday night. ...Southern/Central CA... Within the base of a broad large-scale trough over the West Coast, an embedded midlevel low will move east-southeastward along the southern CA coast through the period. Broad large-scale ascent and steepening deep-layer lapse rates accompanying this feature may yield sufficient (albeit weak) buoyancy for a couple thunderstorms across the region -- with the best potential over the higher terrain late in the day. ..Weinman.. 02/05/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday or Friday night. ...Southern/Central CA... Within the base of a broad large-scale trough over the West Coast, an embedded midlevel low will move east-southeastward along the southern CA coast through the period. Broad large-scale ascent and steepening deep-layer lapse rates accompanying this feature may yield sufficient (albeit weak) buoyancy for a couple thunderstorms across the region -- with the best potential over the higher terrain late in the day. ..Weinman.. 02/05/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... With the upper-level ridge becoming more expansive across the CONUS, fire weather concerns are expected to remain low for most areas on account of relatively weak winds. There will be pockets of dry/breezy conditions in north/central Florida, but recent and expected precipitation should keep any fire weather concerns localized at best. ..Wendt.. 02/05/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... With the upper-level ridge becoming more expansive across the CONUS, fire weather concerns are expected to remain low for most areas on account of relatively weak winds. There will be pockets of dry/breezy conditions in north/central Florida, but recent and expected precipitation should keep any fire weather concerns localized at best. ..Wendt.. 02/05/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper-level pattern will be in place today. Ridging will dominate the West with troughing in the East. While fire weather concerns will generally be low, some modestly dry and breezy conditions are possible within a weak downslope flow regime. These conditions will occur within the lee of the northern Rockies extending into portions of the central High Plains. There are some drying fuels in these areas that could allow for localized elevated fire weather. RH will range from 15-25% with winds around 15 mph (locally greater). ..Wendt.. 02/05/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper-level pattern will be in place today. Ridging will dominate the West with troughing in the East. While fire weather concerns will generally be low, some modestly dry and breezy conditions are possible within a weak downslope flow regime. These conditions will occur within the lee of the northern Rockies extending into portions of the central High Plains. There are some drying fuels in these areas that could allow for localized elevated fire weather. RH will range from 15-25% with winds around 15 mph (locally greater). ..Wendt.. 02/05/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 PM CST Wed Feb 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities appear less than 10 percent across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... Downstream of a significant, progressive short wave trough, models indicate that an initially vigorous perturbation across the southern mid-latitude Pacific will be forced northeastward/eastward toward the North American Pacific coast today through tonight. As it approaches a prominent mid/upper high which has evolved inland of the U.S coast, it is forecast to split, with one of the emerging perturbations accelerating toward the British Columbia coast while the other digs toward the southern California coast. Downstream of the latter impulse, broader weak troughing initially offshore of southern California and Baja is forecast to slowly accelerate north/northeastward inland of coastal areas. While models indicate that the blocking ridge will probably undergo notable weakening today through tonight, it appears that amplified ridging will generally be maintained across the Canadian/U.S. Rockies, with another significant short wave trough of Arctic origins digging downstream, across the southwestern Hudson Bay vicinity. It appears that this will be accompanied by a deepening surface cyclone, with a trailing cold front advancing across the international border into portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region by late tonight. This is likely to occur coincident with strong downstream surface cyclogenesis, offshore of the south Atlantic Seaboard through the southern mid-latitude western Atlantic, trailed by a cold front advancing south of the Florida peninsula through the Bahamas and western Caribbean. ...Florida... Inland of the Gulf coast, across the remainder of the central and southern peninsula, with the mid-level cold core continuing to trail to the northwest of the surface cold front, and mid/upper support for ascent perhaps weakening ahead of the front, forecast soundings indicate minimal potential for pre-frontal thunderstorm development today. ...Southwest... Model forecast soundings, particularly the Rapid Refresh, suggest that steepening lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and moisture return from the subtropical eastern Pacific, may lead to the development of weak conditional instability across parts of southern California through the Mojave Desert/lower Colorado Valley by late tonight. However, this may mostly occur in the wake of an initial short wave impulse overspreading the region, with little potential for thunderstorm activity through 12Z Friday. ..Kerr.. 02/05/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 PM CST Wed Feb 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities appear less than 10 percent across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... Downstream of a significant, progressive short wave trough, models indicate that an initially vigorous perturbation across the southern mid-latitude Pacific will be forced northeastward/eastward toward the North American Pacific coast today through tonight. As it approaches a prominent mid/upper high which has evolved inland of the U.S coast, it is forecast to split, with one of the emerging perturbations accelerating toward the British Columbia coast while the other digs toward the southern California coast. Downstream of the latter impulse, broader weak troughing initially offshore of southern California and Baja is forecast to slowly accelerate north/northeastward inland of coastal areas. While models indicate that the blocking ridge will probably undergo notable weakening today through tonight, it appears that amplified ridging will generally be maintained across the Canadian/U.S. Rockies, with another significant short wave trough of Arctic origins digging downstream, across the southwestern Hudson Bay vicinity. It appears that this will be accompanied by a deepening surface cyclone, with a trailing cold front advancing across the international border into portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region by late tonight. This is likely to occur coincident with strong downstream surface cyclogenesis, offshore of the south Atlantic Seaboard through the southern mid-latitude western Atlantic, trailed by a cold front advancing south of the Florida peninsula through the Bahamas and western Caribbean. ...Florida... Inland of the Gulf coast, across the remainder of the central and southern peninsula, with the mid-level cold core continuing to trail to the northwest of the surface cold front, and mid/upper support for ascent perhaps weakening ahead of the front, forecast soundings indicate minimal potential for pre-frontal thunderstorm development today. ...Southwest... Model forecast soundings, particularly the Rapid Refresh, suggest that steepening lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and moisture return from the subtropical eastern Pacific, may lead to the development of weak conditional instability across parts of southern California through the Mojave Desert/lower Colorado Valley by late tonight. However, this may mostly occur in the wake of an initial short wave impulse overspreading the region, with little potential for thunderstorm activity through 12Z Friday. ..Kerr.. 02/05/2026 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Feb 2 21:49:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Feb 2 21:49:02 UTC 2026.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Mon Feb 02 2026 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Gleason.. 02/02/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0930 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper ridging will build over the West Coast states today, while multiple mid-level shortwave troughs move east-southeastward across the central/eastern CONUS. Even though modest low-level moisture will return late tonight across parts of south/east TX towards the ArkLaTex, generally stable and/or dry conditions will preclude thunderstorms across the CONUS through the end of the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Mon Feb 02 2026 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Gleason.. 02/02/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0930 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper ridging will build over the West Coast states today, while multiple mid-level shortwave troughs move east-southeastward across the central/eastern CONUS. Even though modest low-level moisture will return late tonight across parts of south/east TX towards the ArkLaTex, generally stable and/or dry conditions will preclude thunderstorms across the CONUS through the end of the period. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Feb 02 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Afternoon Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Lyons.. 02/02/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026/ ...Synopsis... With a fairly broad trough from the Rockies to the East Coast, northwesterly flow aloft will be maintained within the High Plains region. Another mid-level shortwave trough will move into the central High Plains. A similar pattern to Monday will occur on Tuesday. A weak surface low will develop in eastern Colorado and shift southward. A secondary cold front will again move through the central/southern High Plains. While dry and breezy conditions are possible across parts of the central/southern High Plains, a weaker surface pressure gradient and slightly cooler temperatures should mitigate most fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Feb 02 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Afternoon Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Lyons.. 02/02/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026/ ...Synopsis... With a fairly broad trough from the Rockies to the East Coast, northwesterly flow aloft will be maintained within the High Plains region. Another mid-level shortwave trough will move into the central High Plains. A similar pattern to Monday will occur on Tuesday. A weak surface low will develop in eastern Colorado and shift southward. A secondary cold front will again move through the central/southern High Plains. While dry and breezy conditions are possible across parts of the central/southern High Plains, a weaker surface pressure gradient and slightly cooler temperatures should mitigate most fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CST Mon Feb 02 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A large-scale, positive-tilt upper trough will cover much of the central/eastern CONUS on Wednesday. One embedded shortwave trough is forecast to move across parts of the Southeast and Gulf Coast vicinity, while another drops southward across the southern Plains. Weak convection will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning near a cold front from the FL Panhandle into parts of GA. This convection may continue through the day across parts of SC/GA and north FL, as the front advances southeastward. Buoyancy is expected to be quite weak, and forecast soundings suggest that convection will generally be too weak and low-topped for thunderstorm development. While very isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out, coverage currently appears too limited for any general thunderstorm areas. ..Dean.. 02/02/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CST Mon Feb 02 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A large-scale, positive-tilt upper trough will cover much of the central/eastern CONUS on Wednesday. One embedded shortwave trough is forecast to move across parts of the Southeast and Gulf Coast vicinity, while another drops southward across the southern Plains. Weak convection will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning near a cold front from the FL Panhandle into parts of GA. This convection may continue through the day across parts of SC/GA and north FL, as the front advances southeastward. Buoyancy is expected to be quite weak, and forecast soundings suggest that convection will generally be too weak and low-topped for thunderstorm development. While very isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out, coverage currently appears too limited for any general thunderstorm areas. ..Dean.. 02/02/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...East TX into the lower MS Valley... A large-scale mid/upper-level trough will cover most of the central/eastern CONUS on Tuesday. Multiple embedded low-amplitude shortwave troughs are expected to move across parts of the central/southern Plains, Midwest, and lower/mid MS Valleys. A weak surface low is forecast to move across the TN Valley vicinity, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the southern Plains into the Mid-South and lower MS Valley. Modest low-level moisture return (dewpoints in the mid 50s to near 60 F) is expected along/ahead of the front, though the strongest forcing will likely be displaced north and east of the more favorable moisture. Generally weak to modest lapse rates will limit buoyancy (with MLCAPE generally expected to remain below 500 J/kg), but convection may become sufficiently deep for isolated afternoon thunderstorm development near the front from parts of east TX into LA. Elevated convection may also develop into parts of the ArkLaMiss region. The weak buoyancy and very modest ascent across the warm sector are still expected to limit severe potential. ..Dean.. 02/02/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...East TX into the lower MS Valley... A large-scale mid/upper-level trough will cover most of the central/eastern CONUS on Tuesday. Multiple embedded low-amplitude shortwave troughs are expected to move across parts of the central/southern Plains, Midwest, and lower/mid MS Valleys. A weak surface low is forecast to move across the TN Valley vicinity, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the southern Plains into the Mid-South and lower MS Valley. Modest low-level moisture return (dewpoints in the mid 50s to near 60 F) is expected along/ahead of the front, though the strongest forcing will likely be displaced north and east of the more favorable moisture. Generally weak to modest lapse rates will limit buoyancy (with MLCAPE generally expected to remain below 500 J/kg), but convection may become sufficiently deep for isolated afternoon thunderstorm development near the front from parts of east TX into LA. Elevated convection may also develop into parts of the ArkLaMiss region. The weak buoyancy and very modest ascent across the warm sector are still expected to limit severe potential. ..Dean.. 02/02/2026 Read more