Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... Locally elevated conditions remain possible this afternoon across portions of northeast New Mexico and portions of the southern High Plains. A few hours of gusty westerly winds may approach 15-20 mph overlapped with RH below 20 percent. However, area fuels are not overly dry, limiting the potential for broader fire weather concerns. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Lyons.. 02/02/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026/ ...Synopsis... A surface low will deepen in the central High Plains and shift southward into the southern High Plains today. A cold front will move through the regions through the day. Surface winds of 15-20 mph in the central High Plains will occur behind the front. Farther south, winds will be weaker outside of a few terrain favored locations. RH of 20-25% is possible in the central High Plains; however, mid/upper cloud potential does introduce some uncertainty. Current fuel data generally suggests that fire weather concerns will remain localized as the broader fuel environment is not overly receptive at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... Locally elevated conditions remain possible this afternoon across portions of northeast New Mexico and portions of the southern High Plains. A few hours of gusty westerly winds may approach 15-20 mph overlapped with RH below 20 percent. However, area fuels are not overly dry, limiting the potential for broader fire weather concerns. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Lyons.. 02/02/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026/ ...Synopsis... A surface low will deepen in the central High Plains and shift southward into the southern High Plains today. A cold front will move through the regions through the day. Surface winds of 15-20 mph in the central High Plains will occur behind the front. Farther south, winds will be weaker outside of a few terrain favored locations. RH of 20-25% is possible in the central High Plains; however, mid/upper cloud potential does introduce some uncertainty. Current fuel data generally suggests that fire weather concerns will remain localized as the broader fuel environment is not overly receptive at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0930 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper ridging will build over the West Coast states today, while multiple mid-level shortwave troughs move east-southeastward across the central/eastern CONUS. Even though modest low-level moisture will return late tonight across parts of south/east TX towards the ArkLaTex, generally stable and/or dry conditions will preclude thunderstorms across the CONUS through the end of the period. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 02/02/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0930 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper ridging will build over the West Coast states today, while multiple mid-level shortwave troughs move east-southeastward across the central/eastern CONUS. Even though modest low-level moisture will return late tonight across parts of south/east TX towards the ArkLaTex, generally stable and/or dry conditions will preclude thunderstorms across the CONUS through the end of the period. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 02/02/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today through tonight. Dry and stable conditions across the CONUS will preclude thunderstorm activity today and tonight. ..Hart.. 02/02/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today through tonight. Dry and stable conditions across the CONUS will preclude thunderstorm activity today and tonight. ..Hart.. 02/02/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Broad midlevel troughing will be maintained over the East, while an upper ridge persists over the Great Plains/Rockies through much of the extended forecast period. Farther west, medium-range guidance depicts a midlevel trough/low moving ashore over the West Coast on Day 5/Friday, before continuing eastward across the Southwest and eventually toward the southern Plains. Given the cut-off nature of this disturbance, guidance varies significantly regarding timing, evolution, and downstream moisture return over the southern Plains and lower MS Valley late in the period. Nevertheless, current indications are that the severe risk will remain low though much of the extended forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Broad midlevel troughing will be maintained over the East, while an upper ridge persists over the Great Plains/Rockies through much of the extended forecast period. Farther west, medium-range guidance depicts a midlevel trough/low moving ashore over the West Coast on Day 5/Friday, before continuing eastward across the Southwest and eventually toward the southern Plains. Given the cut-off nature of this disturbance, guidance varies significantly regarding timing, evolution, and downstream moisture return over the southern Plains and lower MS Valley late in the period. Nevertheless, current indications are that the severe risk will remain low though much of the extended forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Broad midlevel troughing will be maintained over the East, while an upper ridge persists over the Great Plains/Rockies through much of the extended forecast period. Farther west, medium-range guidance depicts a midlevel trough/low moving ashore over the West Coast on Day 5/Friday, before continuing eastward across the Southwest and eventually toward the southern Plains. Given the cut-off nature of this disturbance, guidance varies significantly regarding timing, evolution, and downstream moisture return over the southern Plains and lower MS Valley late in the period. Nevertheless, current indications are that the severe risk will remain low though much of the extended forecast period. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday or Wednesday night. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Within the base of a broad large-scale trough over the eastern half of the CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough will advance southeastward across the Southeast into the northern Gulf. In response, an accompanying cold front will move east-southeastward across the FL Panhandle and vicinity. Here, weak/shallow buoyancy may support an isolated lightning flash with convection along the front during the morning and afternoon, though most of this activity should remain offshore. ..Weinman.. 02/02/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday or Wednesday night. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Within the base of a broad large-scale trough over the eastern half of the CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough will advance southeastward across the Southeast into the northern Gulf. In response, an accompanying cold front will move east-southeastward across the FL Panhandle and vicinity. Here, weak/shallow buoyancy may support an isolated lightning flash with convection along the front during the morning and afternoon, though most of this activity should remain offshore. ..Weinman.. 02/02/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday or Wednesday night. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Within the base of a broad large-scale trough over the eastern half of the CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough will advance southeastward across the Southeast into the northern Gulf. In response, an accompanying cold front will move east-southeastward across the FL Panhandle and vicinity. Here, weak/shallow buoyancy may support an isolated lightning flash with convection along the front during the morning and afternoon, though most of this activity should remain offshore. ..Weinman.. 02/02/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... With a fairly broad trough from the Rockies to the East Coast, northwesterly flow aloft will be maintained within the High Plains region. Another mid-level shortwave trough will move into the central High Plains. A similar pattern to Monday will occur on Tuesday. A weak surface low will develop in eastern Colorado and shift southward. A secondary cold front will again move through the central/southern High Plains. While dry and breezy conditions are possible across parts of the central/southern High Plains, a weaker surface pressure gradient and slightly cooler temperatures should mitigate most fire weather concerns. ..Wendt.. 02/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... With a fairly broad trough from the Rockies to the East Coast, northwesterly flow aloft will be maintained within the High Plains region. Another mid-level shortwave trough will move into the central High Plains. A similar pattern to Monday will occur on Tuesday. A weak surface low will develop in eastern Colorado and shift southward. A secondary cold front will again move through the central/southern High Plains. While dry and breezy conditions are possible across parts of the central/southern High Plains, a weaker surface pressure gradient and slightly cooler temperatures should mitigate most fire weather concerns. ..Wendt.. 02/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... With a fairly broad trough from the Rockies to the East Coast, northwesterly flow aloft will be maintained within the High Plains region. Another mid-level shortwave trough will move into the central High Plains. A similar pattern to Monday will occur on Tuesday. A weak surface low will develop in eastern Colorado and shift southward. A secondary cold front will again move through the central/southern High Plains. While dry and breezy conditions are possible across parts of the central/southern High Plains, a weaker surface pressure gradient and slightly cooler temperatures should mitigate most fire weather concerns. ..Wendt.. 02/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A surface low will deepen in the central High Plains and shift southward into the southern High Plains today. A cold front will move through the regions through the day. Surface winds of 15-20 mph in the central High Plains will occur behind the front. Farther south, winds will be weaker outside of a few terrain favored locations. RH of 20-25% is possible in the central High Plains; however, mid/upper cloud potential does introduce some uncertainty. Current fuel data generally suggests that fire weather concerns will remain localized as the broader fuel environment is not overly receptive at this time. ..Wendt.. 02/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A surface low will deepen in the central High Plains and shift southward into the southern High Plains today. A cold front will move through the regions through the day. Surface winds of 15-20 mph in the central High Plains will occur behind the front. Farther south, winds will be weaker outside of a few terrain favored locations. RH of 20-25% is possible in the central High Plains; however, mid/upper cloud potential does introduce some uncertainty. Current fuel data generally suggests that fire weather concerns will remain localized as the broader fuel environment is not overly receptive at this time. ..Wendt.. 02/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A surface low will deepen in the central High Plains and shift southward into the southern High Plains today. A cold front will move through the regions through the day. Surface winds of 15-20 mph in the central High Plains will occur behind the front. Farther south, winds will be weaker outside of a few terrain favored locations. RH of 20-25% is possible in the central High Plains; however, mid/upper cloud potential does introduce some uncertainty. Current fuel data generally suggests that fire weather concerns will remain localized as the broader fuel environment is not overly receptive at this time. ..Wendt.. 02/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...East TX into the lower MS Valley... A series of shortwave troughs will move through/into the base of a larger-scale trough covering the eastern half of the CONUS through the period. As this occurs, a related cold front will move southeastward across east TX into the lower MS Valley during the afternoon and evening/overnight hours. Despite poor deep-layer lapse rates, sufficient boundary-layer moisture return (middle 50s to near 60 F dewpoints) will yield weak surface-based buoyancy ahead of the front. This will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms from east TX into LA, though the weak buoyancy and limited large-scale ascent over the warm sector should limit the severe risk. ..Weinman.. 02/02/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...East TX into the lower MS Valley... A series of shortwave troughs will move through/into the base of a larger-scale trough covering the eastern half of the CONUS through the period. As this occurs, a related cold front will move southeastward across east TX into the lower MS Valley during the afternoon and evening/overnight hours. Despite poor deep-layer lapse rates, sufficient boundary-layer moisture return (middle 50s to near 60 F dewpoints) will yield weak surface-based buoyancy ahead of the front. This will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms from east TX into LA, though the weak buoyancy and limited large-scale ascent over the warm sector should limit the severe risk. ..Weinman.. 02/02/2026 Read more