SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 PM CST Sun Feb 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today through
tonight.
...Synopsis...
Cool and stable conditions will persist across much of the country
for today and will limit thunderstorm potential. Modest moisture is
expected late tonight into eastern TX as a surface high gradually
shifts east and supports onshore trajectories out of the
northwestern Gulf. A cold front pushing south across the Plains
overnight will begin to impinge on this returning moisture across
the Texarkana region between 09-12 UTC Tuesday morning. While
shallow convective showers appear probable, consensus among forecast
guidance is that warm mid-level temperatures will limit thunderstorm
potential until more substantial cooling aloft occurs (which will
most likely occur after 12 UTC Tuesday).
..Moore/Wendt.. 02/02/2026
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 PM CST Sun Feb 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today through
tonight.
...Synopsis...
Cool and stable conditions will persist across much of the country
for today and will limit thunderstorm potential. Modest moisture is
expected late tonight into eastern TX as a surface high gradually
shifts east and supports onshore trajectories out of the
northwestern Gulf. A cold front pushing south across the Plains
overnight will begin to impinge on this returning moisture across
the Texarkana region between 09-12 UTC Tuesday morning. While
shallow convective showers appear probable, consensus among forecast
guidance is that warm mid-level temperatures will limit thunderstorm
potential until more substantial cooling aloft occurs (which will
most likely occur after 12 UTC Tuesday).
..Moore/Wendt.. 02/02/2026
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CST Sun Feb 01 2026
Valid 020100Z - 021200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low through tonight.
...Synopsis...
Cool, dry, and stable conditions are noted across the country this
evening per 00z RAOBs. With a synoptic regime in place that is
unfavorable for destabilization, thunderstorm potential appears
minimal. One exception to this is along/west of the Cascades in the
Pacific Northwest where occasional lightning flashes have been
observed in recent hours. Regional 00z soundings did sample weak
buoyancy, but this will quickly diminish in the coming hours with
the onset of nocturnal cooling. As such, any additional lightning
potential is expected to be short-lived and should wane rapidly
through the late evening.
..Moore.. 02/02/2026
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CST Sun Feb 01 2026
Valid 020100Z - 021200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low through tonight.
...Synopsis...
Cool, dry, and stable conditions are noted across the country this
evening per 00z RAOBs. With a synoptic regime in place that is
unfavorable for destabilization, thunderstorm potential appears
minimal. One exception to this is along/west of the Cascades in the
Pacific Northwest where occasional lightning flashes have been
observed in recent hours. Regional 00z soundings did sample weak
buoyancy, but this will quickly diminish in the coming hours with
the onset of nocturnal cooling. As such, any additional lightning
potential is expected to be short-lived and should wane rapidly
through the late evening.
..Moore.. 02/02/2026
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CST Sun Feb 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 091200Z
...Synopsis...
A broad upper-level troughing pattern across the eastern U.S. and
ridging across the West is likely to persist through much of this
week. Longer term ensemble guidance suggests a slow deamplification
and shift eastward of the ridge into the Great Plains early next
week which could allow more favorable Pacific moisture trajectories
into the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies by Day 8/Sunday. At
the surface, another southward advancing cold front and related
mid-level trough encountering increasing lower-level Gulf moisture
will support widespread precipitation from eastern TX on Day
3/Tuesday into much of the Southeast by Day 4 Wednesday, mitigating
fire weather concerns. Dry conditions and above normal temperatures
are expected under the ridge for the West and into the High Plains.
...Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday - Desert Southwest and Southern
California...
A developing mid-level low near Baja California, along with an
emerging sustained east-to-west surface pressure gradient should
augment stronger easterly winds across the Desert Southwest and
southern CA by midweek. Persistently low relative humidity
(including poor overnight recoveries) are likely to persist through
midweek. Although alignment of dry and breezy conditions are
probable, a marginally dry fuelscape should allay a more significant
fire weather concern Wednesday and Thursday.
..Williams.. 02/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CST Sun Feb 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 091200Z
...Synopsis...
A broad upper-level troughing pattern across the eastern U.S. and
ridging across the West is likely to persist through much of this
week. Longer term ensemble guidance suggests a slow deamplification
and shift eastward of the ridge into the Great Plains early next
week which could allow more favorable Pacific moisture trajectories
into the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies by Day 8/Sunday. At
the surface, another southward advancing cold front and related
mid-level trough encountering increasing lower-level Gulf moisture
will support widespread precipitation from eastern TX on Day
3/Tuesday into much of the Southeast by Day 4 Wednesday, mitigating
fire weather concerns. Dry conditions and above normal temperatures
are expected under the ridge for the West and into the High Plains.
...Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday - Desert Southwest and Southern
California...
A developing mid-level low near Baja California, along with an
emerging sustained east-to-west surface pressure gradient should
augment stronger easterly winds across the Desert Southwest and
southern CA by midweek. Persistently low relative humidity
(including poor overnight recoveries) are likely to persist through
midweek. Although alignment of dry and breezy conditions are
probable, a marginally dry fuelscape should allay a more significant
fire weather concern Wednesday and Thursday.
..Williams.. 02/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CST Sun Feb 01 2026
Valid 012000Z - 021200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low today and tonight.
...Synopsis...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track.
..Squitieri.. 02/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026/
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Cold/stable conditions behind a front will limit thunderstorm
potential across the central/eastern CONUS today. A mid-level
shortwave trough will advance eastward across the Pacific Northwest
into the northern Rockies through tonight. Cool temperatures aloft
associated with this feature may support very weak instability and
perhaps an occasional lightning flash. However, it still appears
that overall thunderstorm coverage will remain less than 10%.
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CST Sun Feb 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Central/Southern High Plains...
Westerly flow aloft over the southern Rockies ahead of an
approaching mid-level trough, along with lee cyclone development
across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle will support breezy
conditions across the central/southern High Plains Monday. Primary
driver of elevated north/northwest winds from southeastern WY,
eastern CO and western KS, will be an evolving cold front north of
the deepening surface low near the TX Panhandle. North/northwest
winds of 15-20 mph are expected amid relative humidity in the 20-25%
range across the central High Plains. A drier, downslope
presentation is expected farther south with RH falling to as low as
15% across portions of eastern NM and the TX Panhandle coinciding
with west/southwesterly surface flow approaching 20 mph by
mid-afternoon. Localized elevated fire weather concerns are likely,
but marginally dry fuels across the region should mitigate a wider
fire weather concern.
...Florida...
Forecast remains consistent with lighter northwesterly winds across
the FL peninsula Monday as high pressure settles into the northern
Gulf. Very dry conditions will remain with RH falling to around 25%
in interior locations, but inhibited winds should mitigate a broader
fire weather threat.
..Williams.. 02/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1229 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026/
...Synopsis...
After upper-level ridging shifts into parts of the Plains on Sunday,
a shortwave trough will lead to some breakdown of that ridge as it
dives southeastward into the central Plains on Monday. At the
surface, a modest lee trough/cyclone will develop in the central
high Plains and shift southward. Fire weather risk will broadly
remain low across a majority of the CONUS.
...Central/southern High Plains...
With the development of the lee trough/cyclone, at least modest
downslope winds appear possible during the afternoon. Winds will be
more northerly in the central High Plains. Mid/upper clouds make RH
reductions uncertain in this area. Farther south, winds in eastern
New Mexico will more likely be westerly and RH could fall below 20%.
In both areas, winds will be on the light side with around 15 mph
expected (locally up to 20 mph). This overall environment will be
conducive to fuel drying but is not expected to carry more than a
localized fire weather risk.
...Florida...
RH below 25-30% will again be possible during the afternoon. A more
relaxed pressure gradient will mean lighter winds than the previous
two days. Temperatures will be warmer, however. Without stronger
surface winds, fire weather risk appears low. Localized concerns are
possible where recent rainfall was not observed.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 PM CST Sun Feb 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night.
...East TX into the lower MS Valley...
A weak surface low is forecast to move across parts of the lower MS
Valley into parts of the TN/lower OH Valleys on Tuesday, as a
trailing cold front moves through parts of east TX into the ArkLaTex
and Mid-South. Modest low-level moisture return (dewpoints in the
50s to around 60 F) will spread from east TX into northern LA and
southwest MS ahead of the front, though buoyancy is expected to
remain weak, with MLCAPE generally remaining below 500 J/kg.
Early-day convection that develops within a low-level warm advection
regime may gradually deepen through the day, with isolated weak
thunderstorms becoming possible. Additional isolated afternoon storm
development cannot be ruled out near the front across east TX,
though forcing is expected to remain weak in this area. The weak
buoyancy and generally limited ascent across the warm sector are
currently expected to limit severe potential.
..Dean.. 02/01/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 PM CST Sun Feb 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night.
...East TX into the lower MS Valley...
A weak surface low is forecast to move across parts of the lower MS
Valley into parts of the TN/lower OH Valleys on Tuesday, as a
trailing cold front moves through parts of east TX into the ArkLaTex
and Mid-South. Modest low-level moisture return (dewpoints in the
50s to around 60 F) will spread from east TX into northern LA and
southwest MS ahead of the front, though buoyancy is expected to
remain weak, with MLCAPE generally remaining below 500 J/kg.
Early-day convection that develops within a low-level warm advection
regime may gradually deepen through the day, with isolated weak
thunderstorms becoming possible. Additional isolated afternoon storm
development cannot be ruled out near the front across east TX,
though forcing is expected to remain weak in this area. The weak
buoyancy and generally limited ascent across the warm sector are
currently expected to limit severe potential.
..Dean.. 02/01/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1048 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday or Monday
night.
...Synopsis...
In the wake of a deep upper trough moving across the western
Atlantic, one shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward
across the northern Great Plains, while another low-amplitude
shortwave trough will move eastward across TX. A weak surface low is
expected to develop across the southern High Plains, resulting in
modest low-level moisture return (dewpoints in the 50s F) across
central/south TX. However, surface-based buoyancy is expected remain
very weak to negligible. Weak elevated buoyancy may develop late in
the period across parts of east TX and the ArkLaTex region. The
shortwave trough moving across TX may aid in the development of
convective showers early Tuesday morning, but any such convection is
expected to remain too weak/shallow for thunderstorm development
prior to the end of the period.
..Dean.. 02/01/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1048 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday or Monday
night.
...Synopsis...
In the wake of a deep upper trough moving across the western
Atlantic, one shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward
across the northern Great Plains, while another low-amplitude
shortwave trough will move eastward across TX. A weak surface low is
expected to develop across the southern High Plains, resulting in
modest low-level moisture return (dewpoints in the 50s F) across
central/south TX. However, surface-based buoyancy is expected remain
very weak to negligible. Weak elevated buoyancy may develop late in
the period across parts of east TX and the ArkLaTex region. The
shortwave trough moving across TX may aid in the development of
convective showers early Tuesday morning, but any such convection is
expected to remain too weak/shallow for thunderstorm development
prior to the end of the period.
..Dean.. 02/01/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1046 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026
Valid 011700Z - 021200Z
...Florida...
Current surface observations across FL depict a very dry,
post-frontal northwest flow of 10-15 mph over the state this
morning. Single digit dew points and daytime heating should result
in afternoon relative humidity values close to 20 percent across the
east-central FL peninsula. Although abnormally cold temperatures
with highs only in the 40s F are expected, current fire activity
along with dry fuels, lack of significant rainfall attributed to the
frontal passage yesterday and northwest winds of up to 15 mph will
yield an enhanced fire weather concern through the afternoon. Thus,
Elevated highlights were introduced across the east-central FL.
..Williams.. 02/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will continue to be minimal across most of the
CONUS today. Pockets of localized concerns could develop in parts of
central Florida during the afternoon. RH could fall below 30% along
the east coast of the Peninsula. Winds will be decreasing through
the day, but 10-15 mph is possible briefly. Overall, cooler
temperatures and recent light precipitation should preclude a
greater fire weather risk.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1046 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026
Valid 011700Z - 021200Z
...Florida...
Current surface observations across FL depict a very dry,
post-frontal northwest flow of 10-15 mph over the state this
morning. Single digit dew points and daytime heating should result
in afternoon relative humidity values close to 20 percent across the
east-central FL peninsula. Although abnormally cold temperatures
with highs only in the 40s F are expected, current fire activity
along with dry fuels, lack of significant rainfall attributed to the
frontal passage yesterday and northwest winds of up to 15 mph will
yield an enhanced fire weather concern through the afternoon. Thus,
Elevated highlights were introduced across the east-central FL.
..Williams.. 02/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will continue to be minimal across most of the
CONUS today. Pockets of localized concerns could develop in parts of
central Florida during the afternoon. RH could fall below 30% along
the east coast of the Peninsula. Winds will be decreasing through
the day, but 10-15 mph is possible briefly. Overall, cooler
temperatures and recent light precipitation should preclude a
greater fire weather risk.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1046 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026
Valid 011700Z - 021200Z
...Florida...
Current surface observations across FL depict a very dry,
post-frontal northwest flow of 10-15 mph over the state this
morning. Single digit dew points and daytime heating should result
in afternoon relative humidity values close to 20 percent across the
east-central FL peninsula. Although abnormally cold temperatures
with highs only in the 40s F are expected, current fire activity
along with dry fuels, lack of significant rainfall attributed to the
frontal passage yesterday and northwest winds of up to 15 mph will
yield an enhanced fire weather concern through the afternoon. Thus,
Elevated highlights were introduced across the east-central FL.
..Williams.. 02/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will continue to be minimal across most of the
CONUS today. Pockets of localized concerns could develop in parts of
central Florida during the afternoon. RH could fall below 30% along
the east coast of the Peninsula. Winds will be decreasing through
the day, but 10-15 mph is possible briefly. Overall, cooler
temperatures and recent light precipitation should preclude a
greater fire weather risk.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026
Valid 011630Z - 021200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low today and tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Cold/stable conditions behind a front will limit thunderstorm
potential across the central/eastern CONUS today. A mid-level
shortwave trough will advance eastward across the Pacific Northwest
into the northern Rockies through tonight. Cool temperatures aloft
associated with this feature may support very weak instability and
perhaps an occasional lightning flash. However, it still appears
that overall thunderstorm coverage will remain less than 10%.
..Gleason.. 02/01/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026
Valid 011630Z - 021200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low today and tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Cold/stable conditions behind a front will limit thunderstorm
potential across the central/eastern CONUS today. A mid-level
shortwave trough will advance eastward across the Pacific Northwest
into the northern Rockies through tonight. Cool temperatures aloft
associated with this feature may support very weak instability and
perhaps an occasional lightning flash. However, it still appears
that overall thunderstorm coverage will remain less than 10%.
..Gleason.. 02/01/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026
Valid 011630Z - 021200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low today and tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Cold/stable conditions behind a front will limit thunderstorm
potential across the central/eastern CONUS today. A mid-level
shortwave trough will advance eastward across the Pacific Northwest
into the northern Rockies through tonight. Cool temperatures aloft
associated with this feature may support very weak instability and
perhaps an occasional lightning flash. However, it still appears
that overall thunderstorm coverage will remain less than 10%.
..Gleason.. 02/01/2026
Read more
