SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...Synopsis...
The large-scale pattern will consist of a western ridge and an
eastern trough on Friday. A short-wave trough will undercut the
western ridge and traverse the Southern Plains as it moves toward
the Southeast. As this trough moves east, a surface low will develop
across eastern Texas on Friday. To the west of this low, westerly
downslope flow will support gusty surface winds and modest drying.
This will support elevated fire-weather conditions across portions
of west and southwest Texas. Here, the greatest potential relative
humidity values to fall into the 20%s amidst winds in the 10-15 mph
range with stronger gusts.
..Marsh.. 01/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...Synopsis...
The large-scale pattern will consist of a western ridge and an
eastern trough on Friday. A short-wave trough will undercut the
western ridge and traverse the Southern Plains as it moves toward
the Southeast. As this trough moves east, a surface low will develop
across eastern Texas on Friday. To the west of this low, westerly
downslope flow will support gusty surface winds and modest drying.
This will support elevated fire-weather conditions across portions
of west and southwest Texas. Here, the greatest potential relative
humidity values to fall into the 20%s amidst winds in the 10-15 mph
range with stronger gusts.
..Marsh.. 01/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...Synopsis...
The large-scale pattern will consist of a western ridge and an
eastern trough on Friday. A short-wave trough will undercut the
western ridge and traverse the Southern Plains as it moves toward
the Southeast. As this trough moves east, a surface low will develop
across eastern Texas on Friday. To the west of this low, westerly
downslope flow will support gusty surface winds and modest drying.
This will support elevated fire-weather conditions across portions
of west and southwest Texas. Here, the greatest potential relative
humidity values to fall into the 20%s amidst winds in the 10-15 mph
range with stronger gusts.
..Marsh.. 01/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND PARTS OF CA/OR...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast on
Saturday, and the Sacramento/northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal
northern California-southwest Oregon in the afternoon/early evening.
...Southeast...
A positive-tilt shortwave trough will progress east across the Lower
MS Valley to off the South Atlantic Coast by Saturday evening. An
attendant weak surface cyclone should track from central AL to
offshore of SC by 00Z, with a cold front trailing west-southwest to
the central Gulf Coast. Low-level warm conveyor convection should
increase during the mid to late morning, with a separate round of
thunderstorms developing near the surface low to along the front by
midday into the afternoon. Low-level hodograph curvature will be
modestly enlarged within the warm conveyor as it shifts east through
the day, but surface-based instability should remain weak with
low-probability tornado/wind threats.
It appears probable that a corridor of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE
of 1000-1500 J/kg should extend from around the mouth of the MS
River towards the western FL Panhandle by midday. However, low-level
flow will be increasingly veered in this portion of the warm sector
ahead of the front. Sufficient deep-layer speed shear should exist
for a few supercells with mid-level rotation, which may produce
isolated severe hail and eventually isolated damaging winds as
storms cluster during the afternoon.
...Central Valley to coastal northern CA/southwest OR...
Most guidance depicts multiple shortwave impulses ejecting
northeastward from a deep upper trough off the Pacific Coast. The
southern impulse should move across central CA during the afternoon,
while a more vigorous northern impulse impinges on coastal OR during
the afternoon to early evening.
The southern shortwave will be favorably timed for diurnal
convective development across the Sacramento and northern San
Joaquin Valleys. Meager buoyancy should develop amid an elongated
hodograph. This should be sufficient for transient rotating cells,
which could pose a low-probability threat of a brief tornado.
Sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds may also occur.
The northern shortwave will be accompanied by a renewed
strengthening of low-level flow, likely reaching 50-65 kts along the
northern CA/southwest OR coast. Buoyancy will remain scant, but cold
mid-level temperatures aloft should support low-topped convection
that could contribute to localized severe gusts. Transient rotating
cells may also develop offshore and approach the northern CA coast
with a waterspout/low-probability brief tornado risk.
..Grams.. 01/02/2026
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND PARTS OF CA/OR...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast on
Saturday, and the Sacramento/northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal
northern California-southwest Oregon in the afternoon/early evening.
...Southeast...
A positive-tilt shortwave trough will progress east across the Lower
MS Valley to off the South Atlantic Coast by Saturday evening. An
attendant weak surface cyclone should track from central AL to
offshore of SC by 00Z, with a cold front trailing west-southwest to
the central Gulf Coast. Low-level warm conveyor convection should
increase during the mid to late morning, with a separate round of
thunderstorms developing near the surface low to along the front by
midday into the afternoon. Low-level hodograph curvature will be
modestly enlarged within the warm conveyor as it shifts east through
the day, but surface-based instability should remain weak with
low-probability tornado/wind threats.
It appears probable that a corridor of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE
of 1000-1500 J/kg should extend from around the mouth of the MS
River towards the western FL Panhandle by midday. However, low-level
flow will be increasingly veered in this portion of the warm sector
ahead of the front. Sufficient deep-layer speed shear should exist
for a few supercells with mid-level rotation, which may produce
isolated severe hail and eventually isolated damaging winds as
storms cluster during the afternoon.
...Central Valley to coastal northern CA/southwest OR...
Most guidance depicts multiple shortwave impulses ejecting
northeastward from a deep upper trough off the Pacific Coast. The
southern impulse should move across central CA during the afternoon,
while a more vigorous northern impulse impinges on coastal OR during
the afternoon to early evening.
The southern shortwave will be favorably timed for diurnal
convective development across the Sacramento and northern San
Joaquin Valleys. Meager buoyancy should develop amid an elongated
hodograph. This should be sufficient for transient rotating cells,
which could pose a low-probability threat of a brief tornado.
Sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds may also occur.
The northern shortwave will be accompanied by a renewed
strengthening of low-level flow, likely reaching 50-65 kts along the
northern CA/southwest OR coast. Buoyancy will remain scant, but cold
mid-level temperatures aloft should support low-topped convection
that could contribute to localized severe gusts. Transient rotating
cells may also develop offshore and approach the northern CA coast
with a waterspout/low-probability brief tornado risk.
..Grams.. 01/02/2026
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND PARTS OF CA/OR...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast on
Saturday, and the Sacramento/northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal
northern California-southwest Oregon in the afternoon/early evening.
...Southeast...
A positive-tilt shortwave trough will progress east across the Lower
MS Valley to off the South Atlantic Coast by Saturday evening. An
attendant weak surface cyclone should track from central AL to
offshore of SC by 00Z, with a cold front trailing west-southwest to
the central Gulf Coast. Low-level warm conveyor convection should
increase during the mid to late morning, with a separate round of
thunderstorms developing near the surface low to along the front by
midday into the afternoon. Low-level hodograph curvature will be
modestly enlarged within the warm conveyor as it shifts east through
the day, but surface-based instability should remain weak with
low-probability tornado/wind threats.
It appears probable that a corridor of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE
of 1000-1500 J/kg should extend from around the mouth of the MS
River towards the western FL Panhandle by midday. However, low-level
flow will be increasingly veered in this portion of the warm sector
ahead of the front. Sufficient deep-layer speed shear should exist
for a few supercells with mid-level rotation, which may produce
isolated severe hail and eventually isolated damaging winds as
storms cluster during the afternoon.
...Central Valley to coastal northern CA/southwest OR...
Most guidance depicts multiple shortwave impulses ejecting
northeastward from a deep upper trough off the Pacific Coast. The
southern impulse should move across central CA during the afternoon,
while a more vigorous northern impulse impinges on coastal OR during
the afternoon to early evening.
The southern shortwave will be favorably timed for diurnal
convective development across the Sacramento and northern San
Joaquin Valleys. Meager buoyancy should develop amid an elongated
hodograph. This should be sufficient for transient rotating cells,
which could pose a low-probability threat of a brief tornado.
Sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds may also occur.
The northern shortwave will be accompanied by a renewed
strengthening of low-level flow, likely reaching 50-65 kts along the
northern CA/southwest OR coast. Buoyancy will remain scant, but cold
mid-level temperatures aloft should support low-topped convection
that could contribute to localized severe gusts. Transient rotating
cells may also develop offshore and approach the northern CA coast
with a waterspout/low-probability brief tornado risk.
..Grams.. 01/02/2026
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND PARTS OF CA/OR...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast on
Saturday, and the Sacramento/northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal
northern California-southwest Oregon in the afternoon/early evening.
...Southeast...
A positive-tilt shortwave trough will progress east across the Lower
MS Valley to off the South Atlantic Coast by Saturday evening. An
attendant weak surface cyclone should track from central AL to
offshore of SC by 00Z, with a cold front trailing west-southwest to
the central Gulf Coast. Low-level warm conveyor convection should
increase during the mid to late morning, with a separate round of
thunderstorms developing near the surface low to along the front by
midday into the afternoon. Low-level hodograph curvature will be
modestly enlarged within the warm conveyor as it shifts east through
the day, but surface-based instability should remain weak with
low-probability tornado/wind threats.
It appears probable that a corridor of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE
of 1000-1500 J/kg should extend from around the mouth of the MS
River towards the western FL Panhandle by midday. However, low-level
flow will be increasingly veered in this portion of the warm sector
ahead of the front. Sufficient deep-layer speed shear should exist
for a few supercells with mid-level rotation, which may produce
isolated severe hail and eventually isolated damaging winds as
storms cluster during the afternoon.
...Central Valley to coastal northern CA/southwest OR...
Most guidance depicts multiple shortwave impulses ejecting
northeastward from a deep upper trough off the Pacific Coast. The
southern impulse should move across central CA during the afternoon,
while a more vigorous northern impulse impinges on coastal OR during
the afternoon to early evening.
The southern shortwave will be favorably timed for diurnal
convective development across the Sacramento and northern San
Joaquin Valleys. Meager buoyancy should develop amid an elongated
hodograph. This should be sufficient for transient rotating cells,
which could pose a low-probability threat of a brief tornado.
Sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds may also occur.
The northern shortwave will be accompanied by a renewed
strengthening of low-level flow, likely reaching 50-65 kts along the
northern CA/southwest OR coast. Buoyancy will remain scant, but cold
mid-level temperatures aloft should support low-topped convection
that could contribute to localized severe gusts. Transient rotating
cells may also develop offshore and approach the northern CA coast
with a waterspout/low-probability brief tornado risk.
..Grams.. 01/02/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CST Thu Jan 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast.
...Gulf States...
Weak short-wave trough is currently noted over the southern High
Plains region. This feature is forecast to deamplify a bit as it
tracks into the lower MS Valley around 18z. Late in the period, a
stronger feature will dig into the Arklatx by 03/12z, but the lead
short wave is expected to be the primary feature that induces a LLJ
response across MS/AL/GA. Latest model guidance suggests weak
elevated instability will develop across much of the central Gulf
States, and this will prove more than adequate for elevated
convective development along the nose of the LLJ, where warm
advection will be maximized. Late in the period, weak SBCAPE is
expected to develop across southeast LA but the primary forcing
mechanism will be well north of this region and the prospect for
organized severe appears limited.
...CA...
Strong midlevel speed max will translate inland across northern CA
after 03/06z. Profiles will cool as heights fall in response to this
feature, and lower tropospheric lapse rates will steepen. As a
result, forecast soundings exhibit significant moistening that will
lead to weak buoyancy and the possibility for at least isolated
thunderstorms as lifted parcels should be able to attain heights
necessary for lightning discharge. While wind fields will strengthen
markedly, at this time it appears gusty winds would be the greatest
risk with the more organized late-night convection. Severe threat
appears too low to warrant probabilities at this time.
..Darrow/Marsh.. 01/02/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CST Thu Jan 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast.
...Gulf States...
Weak short-wave trough is currently noted over the southern High
Plains region. This feature is forecast to deamplify a bit as it
tracks into the lower MS Valley around 18z. Late in the period, a
stronger feature will dig into the Arklatx by 03/12z, but the lead
short wave is expected to be the primary feature that induces a LLJ
response across MS/AL/GA. Latest model guidance suggests weak
elevated instability will develop across much of the central Gulf
States, and this will prove more than adequate for elevated
convective development along the nose of the LLJ, where warm
advection will be maximized. Late in the period, weak SBCAPE is
expected to develop across southeast LA but the primary forcing
mechanism will be well north of this region and the prospect for
organized severe appears limited.
...CA...
Strong midlevel speed max will translate inland across northern CA
after 03/06z. Profiles will cool as heights fall in response to this
feature, and lower tropospheric lapse rates will steepen. As a
result, forecast soundings exhibit significant moistening that will
lead to weak buoyancy and the possibility for at least isolated
thunderstorms as lifted parcels should be able to attain heights
necessary for lightning discharge. While wind fields will strengthen
markedly, at this time it appears gusty winds would be the greatest
risk with the more organized late-night convection. Severe threat
appears too low to warrant probabilities at this time.
..Darrow/Marsh.. 01/02/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CST Thu Jan 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast.
...Gulf States...
Weak short-wave trough is currently noted over the southern High
Plains region. This feature is forecast to deamplify a bit as it
tracks into the lower MS Valley around 18z. Late in the period, a
stronger feature will dig into the Arklatx by 03/12z, but the lead
short wave is expected to be the primary feature that induces a LLJ
response across MS/AL/GA. Latest model guidance suggests weak
elevated instability will develop across much of the central Gulf
States, and this will prove more than adequate for elevated
convective development along the nose of the LLJ, where warm
advection will be maximized. Late in the period, weak SBCAPE is
expected to develop across southeast LA but the primary forcing
mechanism will be well north of this region and the prospect for
organized severe appears limited.
...CA...
Strong midlevel speed max will translate inland across northern CA
after 03/06z. Profiles will cool as heights fall in response to this
feature, and lower tropospheric lapse rates will steepen. As a
result, forecast soundings exhibit significant moistening that will
lead to weak buoyancy and the possibility for at least isolated
thunderstorms as lifted parcels should be able to attain heights
necessary for lightning discharge. While wind fields will strengthen
markedly, at this time it appears gusty winds would be the greatest
risk with the more organized late-night convection. Severe threat
appears too low to warrant probabilities at this time.
..Darrow/Marsh.. 01/02/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CST Thu Jan 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast.
...Gulf States...
Weak short-wave trough is currently noted over the southern High
Plains region. This feature is forecast to deamplify a bit as it
tracks into the lower MS Valley around 18z. Late in the period, a
stronger feature will dig into the Arklatx by 03/12z, but the lead
short wave is expected to be the primary feature that induces a LLJ
response across MS/AL/GA. Latest model guidance suggests weak
elevated instability will develop across much of the central Gulf
States, and this will prove more than adequate for elevated
convective development along the nose of the LLJ, where warm
advection will be maximized. Late in the period, weak SBCAPE is
expected to develop across southeast LA but the primary forcing
mechanism will be well north of this region and the prospect for
organized severe appears limited.
...CA...
Strong midlevel speed max will translate inland across northern CA
after 03/06z. Profiles will cool as heights fall in response to this
feature, and lower tropospheric lapse rates will steepen. As a
result, forecast soundings exhibit significant moistening that will
lead to weak buoyancy and the possibility for at least isolated
thunderstorms as lifted parcels should be able to attain heights
necessary for lightning discharge. While wind fields will strengthen
markedly, at this time it appears gusty winds would be the greatest
risk with the more organized late-night convection. Severe threat
appears too low to warrant probabilities at this time.
..Darrow/Marsh.. 01/02/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 PM CST Thu Jan 01 2026
Valid 020100Z - 021200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.
...01z Update...
Upper low/short-wave trough have advanced inland across interior CA
early this evening. Earlier isolated thunderstorm activity, beneath
this feature, has weakened and further boundary-layer cooling will
not prove beneficial for deep convection capable of generating
lightning.
..Darrow.. 01/02/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 PM CST Thu Jan 01 2026
Valid 020100Z - 021200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.
...01z Update...
Upper low/short-wave trough have advanced inland across interior CA
early this evening. Earlier isolated thunderstorm activity, beneath
this feature, has weakened and further boundary-layer cooling will
not prove beneficial for deep convection capable of generating
lightning.
..Darrow.. 01/02/2026
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CST Thu Jan 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 091200Z
Low amplitude ridging is expected to develop over the central US
this weekend, with low amplitude ridging to quasi-zonal flow over
much of the CONUS early to mid-next week. A jet will like likely
extend east-northeast from off the southern California coast through
the Colorado Rockies this weekend into early next week, which will
increase downslope flow for portions of the southern/central Plains.
While widespread precipitation is expected for the West Coast, much
of the central US, especially the Plains, are likely to remain dry
into mid-next week. Most of the Southeast will also receive little
to no precipitation after Day 3/Saturday.
...Day 4/Sunday - Day 6/Tuesday: central/southern High Plains...
Downslope flow will increase across the central High Plains on Day
4/Sunday as a westerly mid-level jet impinges on the
central/southern Rockies. Elevated conditions are possible from
southeast Wyoming into southern Colorado along and just east of the
eastern slopes of the Rockies. However, current forecast guidance
indicates misalignment of the strongest winds and lowest RH.
Additionally, there is uncertainty regarding how far down the
eastern slopes of the Rockies the stronger winds will extend.
Despite recent precipitation, fuels remain historically dry for this
time of year across portions of these areas.
On Day 5/Monday, downslope flow and subsequent lee troughing will
likely result in elevated/locally critical fire weather conditions
in the Texas Panhandle/vicinity as breezy west-southwest winds
strengthen amid a dry airmass across portions of the southern High
Plains. Forecast guidance indicates the possibility of elevated fire
weather conditions continuing on Day 6/Monday in portions of west
Texas extending into central/north Texas, but too much forecast
uncertainty exists to introduce probabilities at this time.
..Nauslar.. 01/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CST Thu Jan 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 091200Z
Low amplitude ridging is expected to develop over the central US
this weekend, with low amplitude ridging to quasi-zonal flow over
much of the CONUS early to mid-next week. A jet will like likely
extend east-northeast from off the southern California coast through
the Colorado Rockies this weekend into early next week, which will
increase downslope flow for portions of the southern/central Plains.
While widespread precipitation is expected for the West Coast, much
of the central US, especially the Plains, are likely to remain dry
into mid-next week. Most of the Southeast will also receive little
to no precipitation after Day 3/Saturday.
...Day 4/Sunday - Day 6/Tuesday: central/southern High Plains...
Downslope flow will increase across the central High Plains on Day
4/Sunday as a westerly mid-level jet impinges on the
central/southern Rockies. Elevated conditions are possible from
southeast Wyoming into southern Colorado along and just east of the
eastern slopes of the Rockies. However, current forecast guidance
indicates misalignment of the strongest winds and lowest RH.
Additionally, there is uncertainty regarding how far down the
eastern slopes of the Rockies the stronger winds will extend.
Despite recent precipitation, fuels remain historically dry for this
time of year across portions of these areas.
On Day 5/Monday, downslope flow and subsequent lee troughing will
likely result in elevated/locally critical fire weather conditions
in the Texas Panhandle/vicinity as breezy west-southwest winds
strengthen amid a dry airmass across portions of the southern High
Plains. Forecast guidance indicates the possibility of elevated fire
weather conditions continuing on Day 6/Monday in portions of west
Texas extending into central/north Texas, but too much forecast
uncertainty exists to introduce probabilities at this time.
..Nauslar.. 01/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Thu Jan 01 2026
Valid 012000Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...20Z Update...
The potential for lighting flashes with low-topped convection across
parts of southern CA has generally diminished, as a shortwave trough
continues northeastward across northern/central CA this afternoon
and evening. Cooling mid-level temperatures and modest daytime
heating may still support sufficient MUCAPE for isolated
thunderstorms across parts of central CA for a few more hours this
afternoon, before this potential diminishes this evening.
..Gleason.. 01/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026/
...California...
A shortwave trough will continue to move inland along coastal
north-central California early today, and toward the Sierra and
other parts of Nevada late this afternoon into tonight. With minimal
buoyancy noted in 12z observed soundings, convective potential will
further diminish across far southern California coastal areas today
via frontal passage. More immediately preceding the aforementioned
shortwave trough, potential for a few low-topped thunderstorms will
exist through the afternoon across the central Valley.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Thu Jan 01 2026
Valid 012000Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...20Z Update...
The potential for lighting flashes with low-topped convection across
parts of southern CA has generally diminished, as a shortwave trough
continues northeastward across northern/central CA this afternoon
and evening. Cooling mid-level temperatures and modest daytime
heating may still support sufficient MUCAPE for isolated
thunderstorms across parts of central CA for a few more hours this
afternoon, before this potential diminishes this evening.
..Gleason.. 01/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026/
...California...
A shortwave trough will continue to move inland along coastal
north-central California early today, and toward the Sierra and
other parts of Nevada late this afternoon into tonight. With minimal
buoyancy noted in 12z observed soundings, convective potential will
further diminish across far southern California coastal areas today
via frontal passage. More immediately preceding the aforementioned
shortwave trough, potential for a few low-topped thunderstorms will
exist through the afternoon across the central Valley.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CST Thu Jan 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...AND ALSO FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN CA INTO COASTAL
SOUTHWEST OR...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast on
Saturday, and the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys to
coastal northern California-southwest Oregon during the late
afternoon to evening.
...Parts of the Southeast...
A positive-tilt mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move
from the lower MS Valley toward the South Atlantic Coast through the
period, as an attendant surface low moves from parts of AL/GA to
offshore of SC by late evening. A trailing cold front will move
through parts of the Southeast and central Gulf Coast vicinity.
Guidance continues to vary regarding the timing of the front and
extent of heating/destabilization across the warm sector, but a
plume of weak to moderate MLCAPE is expected to be in place
along/ahead of the cold front during the afternoon, as low-level
moisture spreads northeastward. Some veering/weakening of low-level
flow is forecast across parts of the warm sector with time
(especially with southwestward extent), but increasing midlevel flow
will result in sufficient effective shear for organized storms,
including some supercell potential.
Any lingering morning convection may intensify during the afternoon,
with additional storm development expected along/ahead of the cold
front, and near the primary buoyancy gradient and effective warm
front. This activity could pose at least a low-probability threat
for all severe hazards. A corridor of somewhat greater potential may
evolve within the broader Marginal Risk area, though uncertainty
remains regarding the magnitude of diurnal heating/destabilization,
and the strength/timing of the primary shortwave trough as it moves
quickly eastward.
...Northern CA to coastal southwest OR...
Latest guidance still depicts potential for multiple shortwave
troughs to eject northeastward from a deep mid/upper-level trough
off of the Pacific Coast. The southernmost shortwave is forecast to
move across central CA through the afternoon, while the more
vigorous northern shortwave is expected to affect coastal OR from
late afternoon into the evening.
The southern shortwave will be favorably timed for diurnal
convective development across the Sacramento and northern San
Joaquin Valleys, where cooling midlevel temperatures (dropping below
-20C at 500 mb) may support SBCAPE of 250-500 J/kg during the
afternoon. With relatively elongated hodographs, this generally
meager buoyancy may be sufficient for transient rotating cells to
develop, which could pose a threat for a brief tornado, small hail,
and locally gusty winds.
The northern shortwave will be accompanied by a renewed
strengthening of low-level flow, potentially increasing to
near/above 60 kt at 850 mb over the ocean and along the northern
CA/southwest OR coast. Buoyancy will remain meager, but cold
temperatures aloft will support low-topped convection that could
contribute to severe-gust potential. Transient rotating cells may
also develop offshore and approach the coast.
..Dean.. 01/01/2026
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