Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and severe gusts are possible across parts of the northern Plains into the Midwest. Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are also possible across the Mid-Atlantic and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Northern Plains into the Midwest... Within the base of a midlevel trough moving eastward across SK/MB, modest midlevel height falls and a belt of 40-kt midlevel flow will overspread the northern Plains and upper Midwest. This will promote scattered thunderstorms along a southeastward-moving cold front during the afternoon into the nighttime hours. Rich boundary-layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will yield strong buoyancy along/ahead of the front. This, combined with around 40 kt of effective shear, will promote a few organized clusters and possibly supercell structures capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... In the vicinity of a surface trough in the lee of the Blue Ridge, bands and clusters of storms will overspread a moist and strongly unstable air mass during the afternoon. Despite limited deep-layer shear and related storm organization, the environment will be conducive for damaging wind gusts with the stronger cores. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... An embedded midlevel impulse in the base of a broad, positive-tilt large-scale trough will provide a focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorm development across the lower MS Valley. Generally weak deep-layer shear will limit overall thunderstorm organization/longevity, though strong surface-based buoyancy and the potential for small bands/clusters of storms will favor damaging wind gusts. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHWEST/WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered wind damage is possible with thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging gusts may occur with thunderstorms in North Dakota and west/northwest Texas. ...Mid Atlantic... Scattered thunderstorms are expected once again today from parts of eastern OH/WV into PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. The overall thermodynamic environment has weakened considerably compared to yesterday, with CAPE, low-level lapse rates, and heating showing parameters only marginally favorable for damaging winds. Nevertheless, parts of northern VA into eastern PA and NJ will see strong heating all day with storms moving in during the early evening. This will help to maximize low-level conditions favorable for gusty/damaging winds later today. Therefore will maintain ongoing SLGT risk area. ...Gulf coast states to Carolinas... Hot and humid conditions will prevail over much of the southeast today, with dewpoints in the 70s and pockets of moderate CAPE. Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms will occur across this region with locally damaging winds possible in the strongest storms. ...TX... Full sunshine is noted over TX today, with dewpoints near 70F and the potential for afternoon MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. All CAM solutions indicate thunderstorm development this afternoon along the remnant outflow from overnight convection, extending from the southern TX Panhandle into north-central TX. Initial storms may be supercellular with large hail and damaging winds possible. Storms are expected to congeal through the evening and sag southward, with a continued risk of damaging winds. ...Northern ND... A cold front will move across northeast MT today, with a diffuse surface dryline along the MT/ND border. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late afternoon. Shear profiles will be sufficient for supercell structures capable of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out. ...MT... Scattered afternoon high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop over the mountains of southwest MT and spread east-northeastward. Inverted-v profiles and moderately strong winds aloft will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts in a few of these storms. ..Hart/Leitman.. 07/05/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHWEST/WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered wind damage is possible with thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging gusts may occur with thunderstorms in North Dakota and west/northwest Texas. ...Mid Atlantic... Scattered thunderstorms are expected once again today from parts of eastern OH/WV into PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. The overall thermodynamic environment has weakened considerably compared to yesterday, with CAPE, low-level lapse rates, and heating showing parameters only marginally favorable for damaging winds. Nevertheless, parts of northern VA into eastern PA and NJ will see strong heating all day with storms moving in during the early evening. This will help to maximize low-level conditions favorable for gusty/damaging winds later today. Therefore will maintain ongoing SLGT risk area. ...Gulf coast states to Carolinas... Hot and humid conditions will prevail over much of the southeast today, with dewpoints in the 70s and pockets of moderate CAPE. Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms will occur across this region with locally damaging winds possible in the strongest storms. ...TX... Full sunshine is noted over TX today, with dewpoints near 70F and the potential for afternoon MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. All CAM solutions indicate thunderstorm development this afternoon along the remnant outflow from overnight convection, extending from the southern TX Panhandle into north-central TX. Initial storms may be supercellular with large hail and damaging winds possible. Storms are expected to congeal through the evening and sag southward, with a continued risk of damaging winds. ...Northern ND... A cold front will move across northeast MT today, with a diffuse surface dryline along the MT/ND border. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late afternoon. Shear profiles will be sufficient for supercell structures capable of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out. ...MT... Scattered afternoon high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop over the mountains of southwest MT and spread east-northeastward. Inverted-v profiles and moderately strong winds aloft will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts in a few of these storms. ..Hart/Leitman.. 07/05/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHWEST/WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered wind damage is possible with thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging gusts may occur with thunderstorms in North Dakota and west/northwest Texas. ...Mid Atlantic... Scattered thunderstorms are expected once again today from parts of eastern OH/WV into PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. The overall thermodynamic environment has weakened considerably compared to yesterday, with CAPE, low-level lapse rates, and heating showing parameters only marginally favorable for damaging winds. Nevertheless, parts of northern VA into eastern PA and NJ will see strong heating all day with storms moving in during the early evening. This will help to maximize low-level conditions favorable for gusty/damaging winds later today. Therefore will maintain ongoing SLGT risk area. ...Gulf coast states to Carolinas... Hot and humid conditions will prevail over much of the southeast today, with dewpoints in the 70s and pockets of moderate CAPE. Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms will occur across this region with locally damaging winds possible in the strongest storms. ...TX... Full sunshine is noted over TX today, with dewpoints near 70F and the potential for afternoon MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. All CAM solutions indicate thunderstorm development this afternoon along the remnant outflow from overnight convection, extending from the southern TX Panhandle into north-central TX. Initial storms may be supercellular with large hail and damaging winds possible. Storms are expected to congeal through the evening and sag southward, with a continued risk of damaging winds. ...Northern ND... A cold front will move across northeast MT today, with a diffuse surface dryline along the MT/ND border. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late afternoon. Shear profiles will be sufficient for supercell structures capable of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out. ...MT... Scattered afternoon high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop over the mountains of southwest MT and spread east-northeastward. Inverted-v profiles and moderately strong winds aloft will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts in a few of these storms. ..Hart/Leitman.. 07/05/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHWEST/WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered wind damage is possible with thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging gusts may occur with thunderstorms in North Dakota and west/northwest Texas. ...Mid Atlantic... Scattered thunderstorms are expected once again today from parts of eastern OH/WV into PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. The overall thermodynamic environment has weakened considerably compared to yesterday, with CAPE, low-level lapse rates, and heating showing parameters only marginally favorable for damaging winds. Nevertheless, parts of northern VA into eastern PA and NJ will see strong heating all day with storms moving in during the early evening. This will help to maximize low-level conditions favorable for gusty/damaging winds later today. Therefore will maintain ongoing SLGT risk area. ...Gulf coast states to Carolinas... Hot and humid conditions will prevail over much of the southeast today, with dewpoints in the 70s and pockets of moderate CAPE. Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms will occur across this region with locally damaging winds possible in the strongest storms. ...TX... Full sunshine is noted over TX today, with dewpoints near 70F and the potential for afternoon MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. All CAM solutions indicate thunderstorm development this afternoon along the remnant outflow from overnight convection, extending from the southern TX Panhandle into north-central TX. Initial storms may be supercellular with large hail and damaging winds possible. Storms are expected to congeal through the evening and sag southward, with a continued risk of damaging winds. ...Northern ND... A cold front will move across northeast MT today, with a diffuse surface dryline along the MT/ND border. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late afternoon. Shear profiles will be sufficient for supercell structures capable of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out. ...MT... Scattered afternoon high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop over the mountains of southwest MT and spread east-northeastward. Inverted-v profiles and moderately strong winds aloft will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts in a few of these storms. ..Hart/Leitman.. 07/05/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHWEST/WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered wind damage is possible with thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging gusts may occur with thunderstorms in North Dakota and west/northwest Texas. ...Mid Atlantic... Scattered thunderstorms are expected once again today from parts of eastern OH/WV into PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. The overall thermodynamic environment has weakened considerably compared to yesterday, with CAPE, low-level lapse rates, and heating showing parameters only marginally favorable for damaging winds. Nevertheless, parts of northern VA into eastern PA and NJ will see strong heating all day with storms moving in during the early evening. This will help to maximize low-level conditions favorable for gusty/damaging winds later today. Therefore will maintain ongoing SLGT risk area. ...Gulf coast states to Carolinas... Hot and humid conditions will prevail over much of the southeast today, with dewpoints in the 70s and pockets of moderate CAPE. Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms will occur across this region with locally damaging winds possible in the strongest storms. ...TX... Full sunshine is noted over TX today, with dewpoints near 70F and the potential for afternoon MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. All CAM solutions indicate thunderstorm development this afternoon along the remnant outflow from overnight convection, extending from the southern TX Panhandle into north-central TX. Initial storms may be supercellular with large hail and damaging winds possible. Storms are expected to congeal through the evening and sag southward, with a continued risk of damaging winds. ...Northern ND... A cold front will move across northeast MT today, with a diffuse surface dryline along the MT/ND border. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late afternoon. Shear profiles will be sufficient for supercell structures capable of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out. ...MT... Scattered afternoon high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop over the mountains of southwest MT and spread east-northeastward. Inverted-v profiles and moderately strong winds aloft will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts in a few of these storms. ..Hart/Leitman.. 07/05/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z Both IsoDryT areas were adjusted based on the latest observations and forecast guidance. The IsoDryT area was expanded south and east along the Sierra and into central Nevada. Sufficient moisture and forcing for ascent aloft associated with the mid-level shortwave trough should produce isolated thunderstorms with aid from terrain-induced circulations. Mid/high clouds may inhibit solar insolation and thus terrain induced upslope flow, but enough instability and buoyancy should develop to support isolated thunderstorms. Additionally, thunderstorms are likely to continue into the evening and possibly overnight with northern portions of the IsoDryT area favored. The other IsoDryT area was expanded slightly northwest along the Mogollon Rim and shifted east across northwest New Mexico through southern/central Colorado along the western edge of expected wetter thunderstorms. Sufficient moisture is unlikely to make it into far northwest New Mexico and western Colorado and subsidence aloft indicate little to very low probabilities (<10%) of thunderstorms developing across the areas that were removed. However, the potential for deep pyroconvection remains in the vicinity of the IsoDryT area on active large wildfires as the Willow Fire produced at least one pyroCb pulse yesterday afternoon in a similar environment. ..Nauslar.. 07/05/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will pose a fire weather risk today across portions of the Pacific Northwest and Southwest. Recent upper-air analyses show steady amplification of an upper ridge over the greater Four Corners region. This will maintain very dry and warm conditions for much of the western CONUS, but should generally limit surface pressure gradient winds. However, very dry low-level conditions coupled with an influx of mid-level moisture will support thermodynamic profiles favorable for dry thunderstorms across portions of the West. ...Northern California into Oregon and Nevada... A shortwave trough embedded within the mean south/southwesterly upper-level flow is noted in water-vapor imagery along the CA coast. This feature will continue to move northeast towards southern OR through today. A modest influx of mid-level moisture attendant to the wave coupled with weak ascent should support adequate buoyancy for thunderstorms from northern CA into OR and adjacent portions of northwest NV/southwest ID. Very dry boundary-layer conditions noted in 00 UTC soundings should modulate rainfall amounts and favor dry thunderstorms. Confidence in dry lightning potential is greatest across southern OR where recent fuel reports suggest fuels are becoming increasingly receptive and lightning ignitions will be possible. ...Southwest... Early-morning GOES PWAT estimates depicts a plume of 0.75-1.25 inch PWAT values advecting northward from Baja California. The eastern fringe of this moist plume will spread across AZ and far western NM through the day where lapse rates remain very steep from the surface through around 6 km based on regional 00 UTC soundings. Model guidance continues to suggest that mid-level moistening will be sufficient to support enough buoyancy for high-based convection by late afternoon. With LCL heights forecast to be around 3 km, thermodynamic profiles will be favorable for dry lightning strikes from eastern AZ into NM and south-central CO. Confidence in dry thunderstorm potential remains highest across eastern AZ into southwest NM, but recent CAM ensemble guidance has trended towards higher probabilities for convection across southern CO to the west of the Front Range where conditions remain very dry and active fires have been ongoing. Some guidance hints that very isolated thunderstorms are possible as far west as central AZ along the Mogollon Rim, but ensemble support remains too limited to warrant a westward expansion. ...Southern Montana... Additional dry thunderstorms appear possible across southern to southwest Montana this afternoon as weak upper perturbations crest the apex of the upper ridge. Despite a fairly strong convective signal in latest ensemble guidance and forecast soundings depicting dry boundary-layer conditions, recent rainfall should limit fuel status for the time being. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z Both IsoDryT areas were adjusted based on the latest observations and forecast guidance. The IsoDryT area was expanded south and east along the Sierra and into central Nevada. Sufficient moisture and forcing for ascent aloft associated with the mid-level shortwave trough should produce isolated thunderstorms with aid from terrain-induced circulations. Mid/high clouds may inhibit solar insolation and thus terrain induced upslope flow, but enough instability and buoyancy should develop to support isolated thunderstorms. Additionally, thunderstorms are likely to continue into the evening and possibly overnight with northern portions of the IsoDryT area favored. The other IsoDryT area was expanded slightly northwest along the Mogollon Rim and shifted east across northwest New Mexico through southern/central Colorado along the western edge of expected wetter thunderstorms. Sufficient moisture is unlikely to make it into far northwest New Mexico and western Colorado and subsidence aloft indicate little to very low probabilities (<10%) of thunderstorms developing across the areas that were removed. However, the potential for deep pyroconvection remains in the vicinity of the IsoDryT area on active large wildfires as the Willow Fire produced at least one pyroCb pulse yesterday afternoon in a similar environment. ..Nauslar.. 07/05/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will pose a fire weather risk today across portions of the Pacific Northwest and Southwest. Recent upper-air analyses show steady amplification of an upper ridge over the greater Four Corners region. This will maintain very dry and warm conditions for much of the western CONUS, but should generally limit surface pressure gradient winds. However, very dry low-level conditions coupled with an influx of mid-level moisture will support thermodynamic profiles favorable for dry thunderstorms across portions of the West. ...Northern California into Oregon and Nevada... A shortwave trough embedded within the mean south/southwesterly upper-level flow is noted in water-vapor imagery along the CA coast. This feature will continue to move northeast towards southern OR through today. A modest influx of mid-level moisture attendant to the wave coupled with weak ascent should support adequate buoyancy for thunderstorms from northern CA into OR and adjacent portions of northwest NV/southwest ID. Very dry boundary-layer conditions noted in 00 UTC soundings should modulate rainfall amounts and favor dry thunderstorms. Confidence in dry lightning potential is greatest across southern OR where recent fuel reports suggest fuels are becoming increasingly receptive and lightning ignitions will be possible. ...Southwest... Early-morning GOES PWAT estimates depicts a plume of 0.75-1.25 inch PWAT values advecting northward from Baja California. The eastern fringe of this moist plume will spread across AZ and far western NM through the day where lapse rates remain very steep from the surface through around 6 km based on regional 00 UTC soundings. Model guidance continues to suggest that mid-level moistening will be sufficient to support enough buoyancy for high-based convection by late afternoon. With LCL heights forecast to be around 3 km, thermodynamic profiles will be favorable for dry lightning strikes from eastern AZ into NM and south-central CO. Confidence in dry thunderstorm potential remains highest across eastern AZ into southwest NM, but recent CAM ensemble guidance has trended towards higher probabilities for convection across southern CO to the west of the Front Range where conditions remain very dry and active fires have been ongoing. Some guidance hints that very isolated thunderstorms are possible as far west as central AZ along the Mogollon Rim, but ensemble support remains too limited to warrant a westward expansion. ...Southern Montana... Additional dry thunderstorms appear possible across southern to southwest Montana this afternoon as weak upper perturbations crest the apex of the upper ridge. Despite a fairly strong convective signal in latest ensemble guidance and forecast soundings depicting dry boundary-layer conditions, recent rainfall should limit fuel status for the time being. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z Both IsoDryT areas were adjusted based on the latest observations and forecast guidance. The IsoDryT area was expanded south and east along the Sierra and into central Nevada. Sufficient moisture and forcing for ascent aloft associated with the mid-level shortwave trough should produce isolated thunderstorms with aid from terrain-induced circulations. Mid/high clouds may inhibit solar insolation and thus terrain induced upslope flow, but enough instability and buoyancy should develop to support isolated thunderstorms. Additionally, thunderstorms are likely to continue into the evening and possibly overnight with northern portions of the IsoDryT area favored. The other IsoDryT area was expanded slightly northwest along the Mogollon Rim and shifted east across northwest New Mexico through southern/central Colorado along the western edge of expected wetter thunderstorms. Sufficient moisture is unlikely to make it into far northwest New Mexico and western Colorado and subsidence aloft indicate little to very low probabilities (<10%) of thunderstorms developing across the areas that were removed. However, the potential for deep pyroconvection remains in the vicinity of the IsoDryT area on active large wildfires as the Willow Fire produced at least one pyroCb pulse yesterday afternoon in a similar environment. ..Nauslar.. 07/05/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will pose a fire weather risk today across portions of the Pacific Northwest and Southwest. Recent upper-air analyses show steady amplification of an upper ridge over the greater Four Corners region. This will maintain very dry and warm conditions for much of the western CONUS, but should generally limit surface pressure gradient winds. However, very dry low-level conditions coupled with an influx of mid-level moisture will support thermodynamic profiles favorable for dry thunderstorms across portions of the West. ...Northern California into Oregon and Nevada... A shortwave trough embedded within the mean south/southwesterly upper-level flow is noted in water-vapor imagery along the CA coast. This feature will continue to move northeast towards southern OR through today. A modest influx of mid-level moisture attendant to the wave coupled with weak ascent should support adequate buoyancy for thunderstorms from northern CA into OR and adjacent portions of northwest NV/southwest ID. Very dry boundary-layer conditions noted in 00 UTC soundings should modulate rainfall amounts and favor dry thunderstorms. Confidence in dry lightning potential is greatest across southern OR where recent fuel reports suggest fuels are becoming increasingly receptive and lightning ignitions will be possible. ...Southwest... Early-morning GOES PWAT estimates depicts a plume of 0.75-1.25 inch PWAT values advecting northward from Baja California. The eastern fringe of this moist plume will spread across AZ and far western NM through the day where lapse rates remain very steep from the surface through around 6 km based on regional 00 UTC soundings. Model guidance continues to suggest that mid-level moistening will be sufficient to support enough buoyancy for high-based convection by late afternoon. With LCL heights forecast to be around 3 km, thermodynamic profiles will be favorable for dry lightning strikes from eastern AZ into NM and south-central CO. Confidence in dry thunderstorm potential remains highest across eastern AZ into southwest NM, but recent CAM ensemble guidance has trended towards higher probabilities for convection across southern CO to the west of the Front Range where conditions remain very dry and active fires have been ongoing. Some guidance hints that very isolated thunderstorms are possible as far west as central AZ along the Mogollon Rim, but ensemble support remains too limited to warrant a westward expansion. ...Southern Montana... Additional dry thunderstorms appear possible across southern to southwest Montana this afternoon as weak upper perturbations crest the apex of the upper ridge. Despite a fairly strong convective signal in latest ensemble guidance and forecast soundings depicting dry boundary-layer conditions, recent rainfall should limit fuel status for the time being. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z Both IsoDryT areas were adjusted based on the latest observations and forecast guidance. The IsoDryT area was expanded south and east along the Sierra and into central Nevada. Sufficient moisture and forcing for ascent aloft associated with the mid-level shortwave trough should produce isolated thunderstorms with aid from terrain-induced circulations. Mid/high clouds may inhibit solar insolation and thus terrain induced upslope flow, but enough instability and buoyancy should develop to support isolated thunderstorms. Additionally, thunderstorms are likely to continue into the evening and possibly overnight with northern portions of the IsoDryT area favored. The other IsoDryT area was expanded slightly northwest along the Mogollon Rim and shifted east across northwest New Mexico through southern/central Colorado along the western edge of expected wetter thunderstorms. Sufficient moisture is unlikely to make it into far northwest New Mexico and western Colorado and subsidence aloft indicate little to very low probabilities (<10%) of thunderstorms developing across the areas that were removed. However, the potential for deep pyroconvection remains in the vicinity of the IsoDryT area on active large wildfires as the Willow Fire produced at least one pyroCb pulse yesterday afternoon in a similar environment. ..Nauslar.. 07/05/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will pose a fire weather risk today across portions of the Pacific Northwest and Southwest. Recent upper-air analyses show steady amplification of an upper ridge over the greater Four Corners region. This will maintain very dry and warm conditions for much of the western CONUS, but should generally limit surface pressure gradient winds. However, very dry low-level conditions coupled with an influx of mid-level moisture will support thermodynamic profiles favorable for dry thunderstorms across portions of the West. ...Northern California into Oregon and Nevada... A shortwave trough embedded within the mean south/southwesterly upper-level flow is noted in water-vapor imagery along the CA coast. This feature will continue to move northeast towards southern OR through today. A modest influx of mid-level moisture attendant to the wave coupled with weak ascent should support adequate buoyancy for thunderstorms from northern CA into OR and adjacent portions of northwest NV/southwest ID. Very dry boundary-layer conditions noted in 00 UTC soundings should modulate rainfall amounts and favor dry thunderstorms. Confidence in dry lightning potential is greatest across southern OR where recent fuel reports suggest fuels are becoming increasingly receptive and lightning ignitions will be possible. ...Southwest... Early-morning GOES PWAT estimates depicts a plume of 0.75-1.25 inch PWAT values advecting northward from Baja California. The eastern fringe of this moist plume will spread across AZ and far western NM through the day where lapse rates remain very steep from the surface through around 6 km based on regional 00 UTC soundings. Model guidance continues to suggest that mid-level moistening will be sufficient to support enough buoyancy for high-based convection by late afternoon. With LCL heights forecast to be around 3 km, thermodynamic profiles will be favorable for dry lightning strikes from eastern AZ into NM and south-central CO. Confidence in dry thunderstorm potential remains highest across eastern AZ into southwest NM, but recent CAM ensemble guidance has trended towards higher probabilities for convection across southern CO to the west of the Front Range where conditions remain very dry and active fires have been ongoing. Some guidance hints that very isolated thunderstorms are possible as far west as central AZ along the Mogollon Rim, but ensemble support remains too limited to warrant a westward expansion. ...Southern Montana... Additional dry thunderstorms appear possible across southern to southwest Montana this afternoon as weak upper perturbations crest the apex of the upper ridge. Despite a fairly strong convective signal in latest ensemble guidance and forecast soundings depicting dry boundary-layer conditions, recent rainfall should limit fuel status for the time being. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z Both IsoDryT areas were adjusted based on the latest observations and forecast guidance. The IsoDryT area was expanded south and east along the Sierra and into central Nevada. Sufficient moisture and forcing for ascent aloft associated with the mid-level shortwave trough should produce isolated thunderstorms with aid from terrain-induced circulations. Mid/high clouds may inhibit solar insolation and thus terrain induced upslope flow, but enough instability and buoyancy should develop to support isolated thunderstorms. Additionally, thunderstorms are likely to continue into the evening and possibly overnight with northern portions of the IsoDryT area favored. The other IsoDryT area was expanded slightly northwest along the Mogollon Rim and shifted east across northwest New Mexico through southern/central Colorado along the western edge of expected wetter thunderstorms. Sufficient moisture is unlikely to make it into far northwest New Mexico and western Colorado and subsidence aloft indicate little to very low probabilities (<10%) of thunderstorms developing across the areas that were removed. However, the potential for deep pyroconvection remains in the vicinity of the IsoDryT area on active large wildfires as the Willow Fire produced at least one pyroCb pulse yesterday afternoon in a similar environment. ..Nauslar.. 07/05/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will pose a fire weather risk today across portions of the Pacific Northwest and Southwest. Recent upper-air analyses show steady amplification of an upper ridge over the greater Four Corners region. This will maintain very dry and warm conditions for much of the western CONUS, but should generally limit surface pressure gradient winds. However, very dry low-level conditions coupled with an influx of mid-level moisture will support thermodynamic profiles favorable for dry thunderstorms across portions of the West. ...Northern California into Oregon and Nevada... A shortwave trough embedded within the mean south/southwesterly upper-level flow is noted in water-vapor imagery along the CA coast. This feature will continue to move northeast towards southern OR through today. A modest influx of mid-level moisture attendant to the wave coupled with weak ascent should support adequate buoyancy for thunderstorms from northern CA into OR and adjacent portions of northwest NV/southwest ID. Very dry boundary-layer conditions noted in 00 UTC soundings should modulate rainfall amounts and favor dry thunderstorms. Confidence in dry lightning potential is greatest across southern OR where recent fuel reports suggest fuels are becoming increasingly receptive and lightning ignitions will be possible. ...Southwest... Early-morning GOES PWAT estimates depicts a plume of 0.75-1.25 inch PWAT values advecting northward from Baja California. The eastern fringe of this moist plume will spread across AZ and far western NM through the day where lapse rates remain very steep from the surface through around 6 km based on regional 00 UTC soundings. Model guidance continues to suggest that mid-level moistening will be sufficient to support enough buoyancy for high-based convection by late afternoon. With LCL heights forecast to be around 3 km, thermodynamic profiles will be favorable for dry lightning strikes from eastern AZ into NM and south-central CO. Confidence in dry thunderstorm potential remains highest across eastern AZ into southwest NM, but recent CAM ensemble guidance has trended towards higher probabilities for convection across southern CO to the west of the Front Range where conditions remain very dry and active fires have been ongoing. Some guidance hints that very isolated thunderstorms are possible as far west as central AZ along the Mogollon Rim, but ensemble support remains too limited to warrant a westward expansion. ...Southern Montana... Additional dry thunderstorms appear possible across southern to southwest Montana this afternoon as weak upper perturbations crest the apex of the upper ridge. Despite a fairly strong convective signal in latest ensemble guidance and forecast soundings depicting dry boundary-layer conditions, recent rainfall should limit fuel status for the time being. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHWEST/WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered wind damage is possible with thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and damaging gusts may occur with thunderstorms in North Dakota with occurrences of hail and damaging winds possible from west into northwest Texas as well. ...Upper Ohio Valley into Mid-Atlantic and Carolina Piedmont... Early morning surface analysis places a low over northwest OH, along a diffuse west to east oriented cold front extending from IA through PA and NJ. Expectation is for this low to gradually shift eastward just ahead of slow-moving shortwave trough. Thunderstorm development is anticipated in the vicinity of this low as well as along the cold front, forced predominantly by low-level convergence, across the Upper OH Valley. Lapse rates will be poor, but warm and moist surface conditions will still support modest buoyancy and the potential for strong updrafts. Vertical shear is weak so storm organization will be limited, but a few bowing segments are still possible given the potential for strong cold pools. Highest likelihood for a few stronger gusts will be across eastern PA and NJ where slightly stronger mid-level flow exists. Modest lee troughing is expected from central MD southwestward through the Carolina Piedmont. Diurnal airmass destabilization is anticipated in the vicinity of this troughing, supported by very warm and moist conditions (i.e. temperatures in the upper 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s). Afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this troughing, with moderate to strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE from 1500 to 2500 J/kg) supporting strong updrafts and potential water loading. Vertical shear will be weak, so the expectation is for outflow-dominant multicell storms to merge into clusters or line segments. The hot, well-mixed PBL and resultant, steep low-level lapse rates will enhance the damaging wind potential from mid afternoon into evening. Damaging wind potential is expected to be more sporadic with southward extent into the Carolinas owing to more limited storm coverage. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains... Steep mid-level lapse rates are forecast to spread eastward/northeastward from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, ahead of a shortwave trough progressing through southern British Columbia and Alberta. The boundary layer will be relatively warm and modestly dry, but, given the steep mid-level lapse rates in place, airmass destabilization is still anticipated. Height falls associated with the shortwave will augment convergence along a cold front to provide the lift needed for thunderstorm development in western ND after the airmass destabilizes. There should be enough vertical shear in place to support organized storm structures capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Thunderstorm development also appears possible farther west across MT closer to the shortwave trough. These storms are expected to be high based atop a well-mixed boundary layer with severe wind gusts being the predominant hazard. ...Southern High Plains into east TX... An outflow boundary from the overnight storms in OK currently arcs from east-central TX (near LFK) northwestward to near MWL and into west TX where it intersects a low east of LUB. Thunderstorm development appears likely along this boundary once the airmass diurnally destabilizes this afternoon. Highest coverage is anticipated from west into northwest TX, with more isolated to widely scattered coverage expected farther east. Vertical shear will be weak, resulting in an outflow-dominant storm structure. High storm bases and a deeply mixed boundary layer should result in strong cold pools across west/northwest TX, with cold pool amalgamation perhaps resulting a greater potential for damaging gusts than farther east. ...Lower MS Valley into AL... A very moist airmass will support diurnal destabilization and moderate to strong buoyancy this afternoon from the Lower MS Valley eastward into AL. Remnant MCS and associated vorticity maximum currently moving across northern LA are forecast to continue eastward/southeastward, with a second, smaller convective cluster also continuing across northern/central AL. These features will interact with the moist and unstable airmass this afternoon, supporting thunderstorm development. Vertical shear will be weak and a predominantly outflow-dominant multicellular mode is anticipated. Some stronger gusts are possible via water-loaded downbursts and/or occasional bowing segments. ..Mosier/Dean.. 07/05/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHWEST/WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered wind damage is possible with thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and damaging gusts may occur with thunderstorms in North Dakota with occurrences of hail and damaging winds possible from west into northwest Texas as well. ...Upper Ohio Valley into Mid-Atlantic and Carolina Piedmont... Early morning surface analysis places a low over northwest OH, along a diffuse west to east oriented cold front extending from IA through PA and NJ. Expectation is for this low to gradually shift eastward just ahead of slow-moving shortwave trough. Thunderstorm development is anticipated in the vicinity of this low as well as along the cold front, forced predominantly by low-level convergence, across the Upper OH Valley. Lapse rates will be poor, but warm and moist surface conditions will still support modest buoyancy and the potential for strong updrafts. Vertical shear is weak so storm organization will be limited, but a few bowing segments are still possible given the potential for strong cold pools. Highest likelihood for a few stronger gusts will be across eastern PA and NJ where slightly stronger mid-level flow exists. Modest lee troughing is expected from central MD southwestward through the Carolina Piedmont. Diurnal airmass destabilization is anticipated in the vicinity of this troughing, supported by very warm and moist conditions (i.e. temperatures in the upper 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s). Afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this troughing, with moderate to strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE from 1500 to 2500 J/kg) supporting strong updrafts and potential water loading. Vertical shear will be weak, so the expectation is for outflow-dominant multicell storms to merge into clusters or line segments. The hot, well-mixed PBL and resultant, steep low-level lapse rates will enhance the damaging wind potential from mid afternoon into evening. Damaging wind potential is expected to be more sporadic with southward extent into the Carolinas owing to more limited storm coverage. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains... Steep mid-level lapse rates are forecast to spread eastward/northeastward from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, ahead of a shortwave trough progressing through southern British Columbia and Alberta. The boundary layer will be relatively warm and modestly dry, but, given the steep mid-level lapse rates in place, airmass destabilization is still anticipated. Height falls associated with the shortwave will augment convergence along a cold front to provide the lift needed for thunderstorm development in western ND after the airmass destabilizes. There should be enough vertical shear in place to support organized storm structures capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Thunderstorm development also appears possible farther west across MT closer to the shortwave trough. These storms are expected to be high based atop a well-mixed boundary layer with severe wind gusts being the predominant hazard. ...Southern High Plains into east TX... An outflow boundary from the overnight storms in OK currently arcs from east-central TX (near LFK) northwestward to near MWL and into west TX where it intersects a low east of LUB. Thunderstorm development appears likely along this boundary once the airmass diurnally destabilizes this afternoon. Highest coverage is anticipated from west into northwest TX, with more isolated to widely scattered coverage expected farther east. Vertical shear will be weak, resulting in an outflow-dominant storm structure. High storm bases and a deeply mixed boundary layer should result in strong cold pools across west/northwest TX, with cold pool amalgamation perhaps resulting a greater potential for damaging gusts than farther east. ...Lower MS Valley into AL... A very moist airmass will support diurnal destabilization and moderate to strong buoyancy this afternoon from the Lower MS Valley eastward into AL. Remnant MCS and associated vorticity maximum currently moving across northern LA are forecast to continue eastward/southeastward, with a second, smaller convective cluster also continuing across northern/central AL. These features will interact with the moist and unstable airmass this afternoon, supporting thunderstorm development. Vertical shear will be weak and a predominantly outflow-dominant multicellular mode is anticipated. Some stronger gusts are possible via water-loaded downbursts and/or occasional bowing segments. ..Mosier/Dean.. 07/05/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHWEST/WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered wind damage is possible with thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and damaging gusts may occur with thunderstorms in North Dakota with occurrences of hail and damaging winds possible from west into northwest Texas as well. ...Upper Ohio Valley into Mid-Atlantic and Carolina Piedmont... Early morning surface analysis places a low over northwest OH, along a diffuse west to east oriented cold front extending from IA through PA and NJ. Expectation is for this low to gradually shift eastward just ahead of slow-moving shortwave trough. Thunderstorm development is anticipated in the vicinity of this low as well as along the cold front, forced predominantly by low-level convergence, across the Upper OH Valley. Lapse rates will be poor, but warm and moist surface conditions will still support modest buoyancy and the potential for strong updrafts. Vertical shear is weak so storm organization will be limited, but a few bowing segments are still possible given the potential for strong cold pools. Highest likelihood for a few stronger gusts will be across eastern PA and NJ where slightly stronger mid-level flow exists. Modest lee troughing is expected from central MD southwestward through the Carolina Piedmont. Diurnal airmass destabilization is anticipated in the vicinity of this troughing, supported by very warm and moist conditions (i.e. temperatures in the upper 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s). Afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this troughing, with moderate to strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE from 1500 to 2500 J/kg) supporting strong updrafts and potential water loading. Vertical shear will be weak, so the expectation is for outflow-dominant multicell storms to merge into clusters or line segments. The hot, well-mixed PBL and resultant, steep low-level lapse rates will enhance the damaging wind potential from mid afternoon into evening. Damaging wind potential is expected to be more sporadic with southward extent into the Carolinas owing to more limited storm coverage. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains... Steep mid-level lapse rates are forecast to spread eastward/northeastward from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, ahead of a shortwave trough progressing through southern British Columbia and Alberta. The boundary layer will be relatively warm and modestly dry, but, given the steep mid-level lapse rates in place, airmass destabilization is still anticipated. Height falls associated with the shortwave will augment convergence along a cold front to provide the lift needed for thunderstorm development in western ND after the airmass destabilizes. There should be enough vertical shear in place to support organized storm structures capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Thunderstorm development also appears possible farther west across MT closer to the shortwave trough. These storms are expected to be high based atop a well-mixed boundary layer with severe wind gusts being the predominant hazard. ...Southern High Plains into east TX... An outflow boundary from the overnight storms in OK currently arcs from east-central TX (near LFK) northwestward to near MWL and into west TX where it intersects a low east of LUB. Thunderstorm development appears likely along this boundary once the airmass diurnally destabilizes this afternoon. Highest coverage is anticipated from west into northwest TX, with more isolated to widely scattered coverage expected farther east. Vertical shear will be weak, resulting in an outflow-dominant storm structure. High storm bases and a deeply mixed boundary layer should result in strong cold pools across west/northwest TX, with cold pool amalgamation perhaps resulting a greater potential for damaging gusts than farther east. ...Lower MS Valley into AL... A very moist airmass will support diurnal destabilization and moderate to strong buoyancy this afternoon from the Lower MS Valley eastward into AL. Remnant MCS and associated vorticity maximum currently moving across northern LA are forecast to continue eastward/southeastward, with a second, smaller convective cluster also continuing across northern/central AL. These features will interact with the moist and unstable airmass this afternoon, supporting thunderstorm development. Vertical shear will be weak and a predominantly outflow-dominant multicellular mode is anticipated. Some stronger gusts are possible via water-loaded downbursts and/or occasional bowing segments. ..Mosier/Dean.. 07/05/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHWEST/WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered wind damage is possible with thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and damaging gusts may occur with thunderstorms in North Dakota with occurrences of hail and damaging winds possible from west into northwest Texas as well. ...Upper Ohio Valley into Mid-Atlantic and Carolina Piedmont... Early morning surface analysis places a low over northwest OH, along a diffuse west to east oriented cold front extending from IA through PA and NJ. Expectation is for this low to gradually shift eastward just ahead of slow-moving shortwave trough. Thunderstorm development is anticipated in the vicinity of this low as well as along the cold front, forced predominantly by low-level convergence, across the Upper OH Valley. Lapse rates will be poor, but warm and moist surface conditions will still support modest buoyancy and the potential for strong updrafts. Vertical shear is weak so storm organization will be limited, but a few bowing segments are still possible given the potential for strong cold pools. Highest likelihood for a few stronger gusts will be across eastern PA and NJ where slightly stronger mid-level flow exists. Modest lee troughing is expected from central MD southwestward through the Carolina Piedmont. Diurnal airmass destabilization is anticipated in the vicinity of this troughing, supported by very warm and moist conditions (i.e. temperatures in the upper 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s). Afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this troughing, with moderate to strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE from 1500 to 2500 J/kg) supporting strong updrafts and potential water loading. Vertical shear will be weak, so the expectation is for outflow-dominant multicell storms to merge into clusters or line segments. The hot, well-mixed PBL and resultant, steep low-level lapse rates will enhance the damaging wind potential from mid afternoon into evening. Damaging wind potential is expected to be more sporadic with southward extent into the Carolinas owing to more limited storm coverage. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains... Steep mid-level lapse rates are forecast to spread eastward/northeastward from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, ahead of a shortwave trough progressing through southern British Columbia and Alberta. The boundary layer will be relatively warm and modestly dry, but, given the steep mid-level lapse rates in place, airmass destabilization is still anticipated. Height falls associated with the shortwave will augment convergence along a cold front to provide the lift needed for thunderstorm development in western ND after the airmass destabilizes. There should be enough vertical shear in place to support organized storm structures capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Thunderstorm development also appears possible farther west across MT closer to the shortwave trough. These storms are expected to be high based atop a well-mixed boundary layer with severe wind gusts being the predominant hazard. ...Southern High Plains into east TX... An outflow boundary from the overnight storms in OK currently arcs from east-central TX (near LFK) northwestward to near MWL and into west TX where it intersects a low east of LUB. Thunderstorm development appears likely along this boundary once the airmass diurnally destabilizes this afternoon. Highest coverage is anticipated from west into northwest TX, with more isolated to widely scattered coverage expected farther east. Vertical shear will be weak, resulting in an outflow-dominant storm structure. High storm bases and a deeply mixed boundary layer should result in strong cold pools across west/northwest TX, with cold pool amalgamation perhaps resulting a greater potential for damaging gusts than farther east. ...Lower MS Valley into AL... A very moist airmass will support diurnal destabilization and moderate to strong buoyancy this afternoon from the Lower MS Valley eastward into AL. Remnant MCS and associated vorticity maximum currently moving across northern LA are forecast to continue eastward/southeastward, with a second, smaller convective cluster also continuing across northern/central AL. These features will interact with the moist and unstable airmass this afternoon, supporting thunderstorm development. Vertical shear will be weak and a predominantly outflow-dominant multicellular mode is anticipated. Some stronger gusts are possible via water-loaded downbursts and/or occasional bowing segments. ..Mosier/Dean.. 07/05/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of a short wave trough pivoting inland of the British Columbia coast by mid week, medium-range guidance continues to indicate the gradual development of large-scale ridging across the much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains and Mississippi Valley late this week through next weekend. It appears that a center of seasonably high mid-level heights will evolve and develop northeastward, west through north of the Four Corners, into northern Colorado by the end of the period. Prior to and as this occurs, this may be preceded by the transition of a generally zonal to broadly cyclonic regime across and east of the northern Great Plains through northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, but embedded short wave developments remain rather unclear. Regardless, it still appears that substantive potential for organized severe thunderstorm development, if any, will largely remain influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and of particularly low predictability at this extended time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of a short wave trough pivoting inland of the British Columbia coast by mid week, medium-range guidance continues to indicate the gradual development of large-scale ridging across the much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains and Mississippi Valley late this week through next weekend. It appears that a center of seasonably high mid-level heights will evolve and develop northeastward, west through north of the Four Corners, into northern Colorado by the end of the period. Prior to and as this occurs, this may be preceded by the transition of a generally zonal to broadly cyclonic regime across and east of the northern Great Plains through northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, but embedded short wave developments remain rather unclear. Regardless, it still appears that substantive potential for organized severe thunderstorm development, if any, will largely remain influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and of particularly low predictability at this extended time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of a short wave trough pivoting inland of the British Columbia coast by mid week, medium-range guidance continues to indicate the gradual development of large-scale ridging across the much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains and Mississippi Valley late this week through next weekend. It appears that a center of seasonably high mid-level heights will evolve and develop northeastward, west through north of the Four Corners, into northern Colorado by the end of the period. Prior to and as this occurs, this may be preceded by the transition of a generally zonal to broadly cyclonic regime across and east of the northern Great Plains through northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, but embedded short wave developments remain rather unclear. Regardless, it still appears that substantive potential for organized severe thunderstorm development, if any, will largely remain influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and of particularly low predictability at this extended time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of a short wave trough pivoting inland of the British Columbia coast by mid week, medium-range guidance continues to indicate the gradual development of large-scale ridging across the much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains and Mississippi Valley late this week through next weekend. It appears that a center of seasonably high mid-level heights will evolve and develop northeastward, west through north of the Four Corners, into northern Colorado by the end of the period. Prior to and as this occurs, this may be preceded by the transition of a generally zonal to broadly cyclonic regime across and east of the northern Great Plains through northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, but embedded short wave developments remain rather unclear. Regardless, it still appears that substantive potential for organized severe thunderstorm development, if any, will largely remain influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and of particularly low predictability at this extended time frame. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... An organizing cluster of thunderstorms may pose increasing potential to produce strong to severe wind gusts by late Tuesday evening into Tuesday night across parts of the middle Missouri Valley toward the Upper Midwest. ...Discussion... Models suggest that the westerlies may become a bit less progressive across the higher latitudes of North America during this period, with a deep remnant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone only slowly migrating east-northeastward across Hudson Bay toward the northern Quebec shores. Upstream, a notable trough is forecast to only slowly pivot inland of the British Columbia coast. In advance of the trailing perturbation, a low-amplitude trough within modest zonal westerlies across the northern tier of the U.S. is forecast to progress east of the northern Rockies, and flatten initial mid-level ridging across the middle Missouri Valley by late Tuesday night. Otherwise, mid-level ridging is forecast to remain prominent along an axis from the subtropical eastern Pacific through the central and southern Great Plains, while also developing northwestward from the subtropical western Atlantic into parts of the southeast. A remnant trough or shear axis will likely linger in between, near/west through southwest of the southern Appalachians. ...Parts of the middle Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest... Latest guidance suggests that potential for stronger convective development may still remain largely influenced by sub-synoptic developments with rather low predictability at this time frame. However, there appears a consistent enough developing convective signal among the various model output to lead to some confidence in the evolution of an organized convective system across the mid Missouri Valley vicinity by late Tuesday night. It appears that stronger pre-frontal daytime heating may focus moderate to strong destabilization in a corridor roughly across south central South Dakota toward southwestern Minnesota by late Tuesday afternoon. Beneath steep lapse rates, surface dew point increases to around 70F may support mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000-3000+ J/kg. As remnant warm elevated mixed-layer air is suppressed further southward, the initiation of storms capable of producing severe hail and wind seems probable by early Tuesday evening. It is possible that the most substantive upscale growth, intensification and organization awaits forcing associated with a nocturnal strengthening low-level jet toward late evening. But, as this occurs, the environment appears potentially conducive to the development of a swath of damaging winds as it propagates east-southeastward Tuesday night. ..Kerr.. 07/05/2026 Read more